Contents:
Overview

Projects

Publications:
Full Reports, Analyses, and Databases On-line

Books and Major Publications

Reports for Sale

    Overview

    The Middle East remains a region in crisis. Several of the Arab states of North Africa are moving towards political and economic reform, but progress is slow and erratic. Algeria is now caught up in a major civil conflict. Libya's stability is deteriorating, and Islamic extremist elements challenge the stability of Tunisia. The Arab-Israeli peace process is proving anything but irreversible, and a continuing low level war is now taking place between Israeli forces and the Iranian/Syrian-backed Hezbollah. Lebanon remains an occupied state. Iraq remains under Saddam Hussein and is still a military threat to its neighbors, in spite of the Gulf War and six years of UN sanctions. Iran remains under the rule of an Islamic revolution that may still have ambitions for regional hegemony, which seeks to export its ideology, which is hostile to the US, and which opposes the Arab-Israeli peace process. The Southern Gulf lacks unity, and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia demonstrate that there are growing challenges in terms of internal security. Peripheral states -- such as Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, the Sudan Turkey, Yemen -- create further potential challenges to the stability of the region, while raising strategic and humanitarian concerns in their own right.

    The CSIS Middle East Program, under the co-direction of Anthony H. Cordesman and Judith Kipper, addresses these challenges through a wide range of programs. It has developed broad net assessments of regional political, economic, demographic, water, energy, and security trends. These assessments are supported by detailed analyses of sub-regions like the Mahgreb, the Arab-Israeli "ring states," the Gulf, and the Red Sea area. They are also supported by analysis and briefings on individual problem areas, and studies of potential solutions to such security problems.

    These studies strongly suggest that the true causes of instability in the region go far beyond a narrow focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the threats posed by Iran and Iraq, and the threat posed by various extremist groups. They suggest that the Middle East and North Africa face growing problems because of a failure to address the need for economic reform, to encourage the private sector, and attract and make effective use of foreign investment. They also suggest that the region is experiencing extraordinarily rapid population growth that is creating a potential crisis in sustaining increase per capita incomes and development. There is already a "youth explosion" in terms of large populations of unemployment workers under the age of 25, and a growing crisis in the quality and relevance of education. The program conducts on-going studies of military and security trends in the region. These include detailed assessments of the military balance, and have produced two major books: Perilous Prospects: The Arab-Israeli Military Balance and the Peace Process (Westview 1996), and The Gulf War: Lessons of Modern War, Volume IV. (Westview 1996). A four volume CSIS report has also been completed on the military balance in the Gulf, and detailed country studies are underway of the military forces of each Gulf country, Iranian and Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and US forces in the Gulf. Assessments are also available of the military balances in the Mahgreb, the Arab-Israeli "ring states," and Red Sea areas.

    The program works with other elements of CSIS to analyze energy trends and trade patterns in the region, and US strategic and commercial interests in the Middle East. It has produced analysis of the energy trends in the region through 2015, the impact of Middle Eastern oil and gas exports on world energy balances, energy risks, and the Asia's growing dependence on Middle Eastern energy exports.

    In addition, the CSIS Middle East Program maintains programs to ensure a dialogue on many of these issues, through a series of meetings, briefings, and conferences. These include such activities as the International Consultative Group on the Middle East, and a series of high level meetings on key Middle East organized by Judith Kipper.

    Projects

    The main activities of the Middle East program include:

    • International Consultative Group on the Middle East. The International Consultative Group brings together a select group from the Middle East, the United States, and Europe (from the policy community, the business world, and academia) for a continuing dialogue. The ICG focuses on the fundamental trends—global and regional, economic, political, and security—confronting the Middle East. A meeting is planned for Washington, D.C., in June 1997. (Richard Fairbanks, Managing Director, Domestic and International Issues; Arnaud de Borchgrave, Senior Adviser; Anthony H. Cordesman and Judith Kipper, Codirectors, Middle East Studies Program)

    • Middle East: Dynamic Net Assessment. This project has produced a six-volume, comprehensive look at the strategic environment in the Middle East, which takes account of the most recent political and military developments in the region. This series of books has been copublished by CSIS and Westview Press includes: Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond; Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE: Challenges of Security; Kuwait: Recovery and Security After the Gulf War; Iran: Dilemmas of Dual Containment; Saudi Arabia: Guarding the Desert Kingdom; and U.S. Forces in the Middle East: Resources and Capabilities. It is available from the CSIS bookstore, from Westview Press by calling 1-800-456-1995, or at bookstores.

      The project is now exploring new options for Gulf cooperation and developing an economic, political, and strategic model of the possible future of the Gulf through the year 2020 in regional security, particularly the security of U.S. allies and of U.S. strategic interests. Other studies include the demographics and sources of ethnic and sectarian conflict, patterns in arms transfers, and the nuclear, chemical, and biological forces of Middle Eastern states. (Anthony H. Cordesman, Senior Fellow and Codirector, Middle East Studies Program)

    • The New Middle East: Long-Term Trends and Developments. This series of seminars, lectures, and working groups focuses on political, economic, and strategic developments in the region, in which Iran and Iraq are of particular importance. The implications for energy security, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the Western democracies' increasingly divergent policies toward Iran and Iraq are major areas of study, along with the Arab-Israeli peace process. Socioeconomic and political issues, which are often the true causes of instability, as well as economic restructuring and experiments in democratization are topics being examined in the light of new realities in the Middle East. (Anthony H. Cordesman and Judith Kipper, Codirectors, Middle East Studies Program) Middle East Program


    Mailing List

    The Middle East program maintains a mailing list for events in Washington. To be included in this mailing list, call Mercedes Galindo (202)-775-3125, or write the Middle East Program in care of the CSIS, 1800 K Street N.W., Washington, DC 20006.

    Middle East Program Publications

    Full Reports, Analyses, and Databases On-line


    Note: These are large files, and may take some time to load

    The United States, Japan, Europe and the Gulf

    Terrorism and the Threat From Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East

    The Quadrennial Defense Review: the American Threat to the United States


    Books and Major Publications

    The Middle East Studies Program has issued several books on developments in the Middle East. These are available through the CSIS bookstore, or directly from Westview. The CSIS book store can be contacted by calling (202) 775-3119. Alternatively, all books can be ordered from the Westview Press by calling 1-800-456-1995, or by writing the Westview Press at 5500 Central Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80301. (Fax: 303-449-3356).

    Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond
    Anthony H. Cordesman and Ahmed Hashim

    This volume provides analysis of the state of Iraq's security and of current Western policy toward the country in the wake of the Gulf War. It also examines the political, economic, and security impact of sanctions, Iraq's future role as an oil exporter, the U.S. policy of dual containment in relation to Iraq, and options for dealing with Iraq in the future.

    February, 1997; 400 pages;
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3235-4, $78.00
    Paperback: 0-8133-3236, $35.00

    Iran: Dilemmas of Dual Containment
    Anthony H. Cordesman and Ahmed Hashim

    This volume provides a detailed analysis of Iran's politics, economics, energy exports, security and military forces, as well as an examination of current Western policy toward Iran and its regional activities and support of Islamic extremists. The impact of sanctions and the U.S. policy of dual containment are examined in detail along with different strategies for dealing with Iran and Iran's efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

    January, 1997, 384 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3237-0, $75.00
    Paperback: 0-8133-3238-9, $30.00

    Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE: Challenges of Security
    Anthony H. Cordesman

    This volume examines the changing economic and internal security challenges faced by the Gulf countries and the problems they face with Iran, Iraq, and other Gulf states. The special military and security needs of Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are analyzed here in detail, as are their growing demographic problems and export plans.

    February, 1997; 288 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3239-7, $75.00,
    Paperback: 0-8133-3240-0, $30.00

    Saudi Arabia: Guarding the Desert Kingdom
    Anthony H. Cordesman

    Since the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia's tenuous security situation has been altered by an ongoing U.S. presence. This volume provides detailed analysis of the state of the Saudi economy and military forces, its growing internal security problems and the stability of its regime, and its reliability as an energy exporter.

    January, 1997; 256 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3241-9, $65.00,
    Paperback: 0-8133-3242-7, $27.00

    Kuwait: Recovery and Security After the Gulf War
    Anthony H. Cordesman

    With the thoroughness that this recently spotlighted nation requires, this volume examines Kuwait's internal and external security situation after the turbulent days of the Gulf War and investigates continued Western involvement in its safekeeping. It also examines Kuwait's changing role as an energy exporter.

    February 1997; 144 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3243-5, $60.00,
    Paperback: 0-8133-3244-3, $23.00

    U.S. Forces in the Middle East: Resources and Capabilities
    Anthony H. Cordesman

    This volume provides the first detailed analysis of the trends in U.S. contingency capabilities since the end of the Gulf War, the impact of the Bush administration's "Base Force" policy, and the Clinton administration's bottom-up review of current U.S. contingency capabilities. It examines U.S. capabilities in the Gulf through the year 2001, the impact of current force improvement plans and defense budgets, and the new problems created by the need for counter-proliferation strategy.

    January, 1997: 128 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-3245-1, $62.00,
    Paperback: 0-8133-3246-x, $24.00

    Perilous Prospects: The Peace-Process and the Arab-Israeli Military Balance
    Anthony H. Cordesman

    This book provides a detailed analysis of the delicate and dangerous balance of power in the Middle East. It provides a comprehensive account of the military and security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the recent assassination of Prime Minister Rabin. Cordesman considers a number of possible futures for the region, and their effects on the peace process, ranging the outbreak of a new Intifada, to war between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights. It also provides an analysis of the internal security requirements of both Israel and a new Palestinian state, which are the key to any lasting settlement.

    May, 1996: 336 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-2939-6, $60.00,
    Paperback: 0-8133-3074-2, $25.00

    The Gulf War: Lessons of Modern War, Volume IV
    Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner

    This new volume in the acclaimed: "Lessons of Modern War" series provides what must be considered the definitive study of the Gulf War. The authors draw careful conclusions based on extensive research from a wide variety of sources, including newly declassified documents, official military reports, interviews: field research in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and southern Iraq: and Anthony Cordesman's own firsthand observations of the unfolding battle.

    The book examines in unprecedented detail the efforts of all members of the coalition, not just the United States. The authors are careful to distinguish between the general lessons about warfare that can be drawn from the Gulf War and those that are unique to this conflict. The many lessons presented in this book cover the whole range of political, strategic, tactical, technical, and human elements of this conflict.

    The authors' analysis is based on the dynamic interaction of all these factors. The central lesson is that this highly complex web of human and technological developments has resulted in a new "military revolution" of profound significance for the history of modern war. The Gulf War explodes many myths and is essential reading for anyone concerned about the new, but still dangerous, world in which we live in.

    February, 1996: 1048 pages
    Hardbound: 0-8133-8601-2, $98.00.


    Reports for Sale

    In addition to its various books, and the material provided on its web page, the Middle East program issues a variety of reports. These reports consist largely of graphic and quantitative briefings on key trends in major policy areas, or short narrative studies. The reports which are currently available are listed below.

    If you would like to purchase any of these reports, please send a check with the full title of each report you wish to purchase to:

    Ms. Mercedes Galindo
    Middle East Studies Program
    Center for Strategic and International Studies
    1800 K Street, N.W.
    Suite 400
    Washington, D.C. 20006
    Please make your check payable in dollars to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All reports must be paid for in advance with postage.

    April 9, 1997
    "Stability and Instability in the Middle East: The Economic, Demographic, Energy and Security Situation in the Middle East" - Summary Briefing (Cost: $25.00)

    April 8, 1997
    "Investment and Economic Trends in the Middle East: A Comparative Macroeconomic Overview" (Cost: $25.00)

    April 4, 1997
    "Trends in US Defense Spending and Forces in the Gulf War: Tracking the Real Impact of the Clinton FY1998 Budget Request" (Cost: $25.00)

    March 18, 1997
    "Oil as a Blessing and a Curse: The Performance of Oil-Dominated Economies in the Middle East" (Cost: $15.00)

    March 4, 1997
    "The Quadrennial Defense Review, the American Threat to the United States" (Cost: $15.00)

    March 4, 1997
    "Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction" (Cost: $25.00)

    March 4, 1997
    "The United States and the Threat of Middle Eastern 'Terrorism'" (Cost: $15.00)

    March, 1997
    "The United States, Japan, Europe and the Gulf: Meeting External Challenges" (Cost: $25.00)

    March, 1997
    "Beyond Dual Containment: The US, Japan, and the Gulf" (Cost: $15.00)

    February 9, 1997
    "Iraq and the 'War of the Sanctions', Volume IV Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery System" (Cost: $25.00)

    February 9, 1997
    "Iraq and the 'War of the Sanctions', Volume I, Domestic Politics and Internal Security" (Cost: $25.00)

    February 9, 1997
    "Iraq and the 'War of Sanctions', Volume II, Economics, Sanctions, Trade, Energy and Foreign Policy" (Cost: $25.00)

    February 9, 1997
    "Iraq and the 'War of Sanctions', Volume III, Conventional Military Forces, Paramilitary Forces, and Terrorism" (Cost: $25.00)

    February 9, 1997
    "The Military Balance in the Gulf: Volume I: Overview of Military Expenditures, Conventional Forces, and Weapons of Mass Destruction" (Cost: $25.00)

    February 4, 1997
    "The Changing Nature of Oil and Gas in the Middle East" (Cost: $25.00)

    February, 1997
    "The Water Problem in the Middle East and North Africa" (Cost: $25.00)

    January 1, 1997
    "The Military Balance in the Gulf: Volume IV, Southern Gulf and US Forces" (Cost: $25.00)

    January 1, 1997
    "The Military Balance in the Gulf: Volume III, Iran and Iraq: The Northern Gulf" (Cost: $25.00)

    January 1, 1997
    "The Military Balance in the Gulf: Volume II, Gulf Arms Transfers" (Cost: $25.00)

    January, 1997
    "Changing Patterns in the Military Balance in the Gulf, Red Sea, and South Asia" (Cost: $25.00)

    December 12, 1996
    "The Middle East and the Gulf: Meeting External Challenges" (Cost: $15.00)

    December, 1996
    "Trends in NATO and European Forces Since the Cold War" (Cost: $25.00)

    December, 1996
    "On the Edge: Trends in US Forces Since the Cold War" (Cost: $25.00)

    November 14, 1996
    "Foreign Strategic Challenges and the American Threat to the United States" (Cost: $25.00)

    November 1, 1996
    "Arab-Israeli Economic, Demographic, and Military Trends and the Peace Process" (Cost: $25.00)

    October 22, 1996
    "Terrorism and the Threat From Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East" (Cost: $25.00)

    October, 1996
    "Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers in the Gulf: Impact Relative to World and Regional Transfers, Regional Military Balance, Sales by Supplier Nation, Trends in Northern and Southern Gulf, and Impact on Gulf Economies" (Cost: $25.00)

    September 12, 1996
    "Iraq: Saddam, Sanctions and "Dual Containment": Oral Statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee" (Cost: $15.00)

    September 2, 1996
    "Asia and Dependence on Middle East Oil and Gas" (Cost: $25.00)

    September, 1996
    "Strategic Developments in the Maghreb: A Graphic Assessment" (Cost: $25.00)

    August 28, 1996
    "Iraq's Military Forces in the Year 2000: Trends and Uncertainties" (Cost: $25.00)

    August 1, 1996
    "US Strategic Interests in the Middle East and the Process of Regional Change" (Cost: $25.00)

    July 31, 1996
    "Major Trends in Asia: The Changing Nature of Strategic Interests in Asia" (Cost: $25.00)

    July 8, 1996
    "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: War Fighting and Arms Control Implications" (Cost: $15.00)


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Center for Strategic and International Studies - 1997