Quantitative, demographic issues (e.g. increased immigration and visible minorities, aging baby boomers and Generation-X) and softer issues of values, lifestyle, demand or political energy (e.g. more surveillance, more autonomy or more reliance on fellow citizens)
2) Economic issues:
3) Technological issues:
4) Political issues:
Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future. Each scenario represents a distinct, plausible world. The purpose of scenario planning is not to predict the future; but rather, to show how different forces can manipulate the future in different directions. It is very important to realize this, for this procedure helps to identify these forces if and when they happen. The utility of scenario planning lies in its ability to anticipate the future. When this is accomplished, the ability to better respond to future events is increased.
How to write scenarios...
We then had to identify the primary "driving forces" of today to predict the events of tomorrow. These forces are detailed in the sidebar to the left. Scenarios are not necessarily "good" or "bad"; they are, in fact, a potpourri of circumstances and events.
"It [scenario planning] can prepare us in the same way that it prepares corporate executives: it helps us understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they might mean. It helps us "rehearse" our responses to those possible futures. And it helps us spot them as they begin to unfold." (Wilkinson, Scenarios: Special Wired Edition, January 1996 )[continue...]
|About IDEA | What Are Scenarios? | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Recommendations | Bibliography|