Things Get Even Better for Bush
If anything, the picture is even prettier for Bush looking ahead to March 14 and its full roster of Southern primaries (Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee). For Georgia was his comfiest Super Tuesday state, a place where he whomped McCain in virtually every demographic group.
     Least pretty this Tuesday were the Democratic contests, where Al Gore posted Bill Bradley down low and took him to the basket. Gore drubbed Bradley across ethnic, income and ideological groups. Here’s the kind of day Bradley had:
       Bradley made racial justice a centerpiece of his campaign. Blacks went for Gore by 83-15 percent.
       Bradley’s initial appeal was to higher-income and better-educated Democrats. On Tuesday he lost both groups by more than 20-point margins.
       To successfully challenge a sitting vice president Bradley would have had to martial the disaffected. But Bradley even managed to lose the nine percent of voters who said their financial situation was worse than four years ago, by a sweeping 64-33 percent.
     The Republican races provided a more complex set of results. While Bush maintained his predominance among core Republicans and conservatives, he faces challenges ahead — to broaden his appeal to moderates and independents, and to mend fences with McCain supporters. Among all McCain voters Tuesday, 35 percent said they’d defect to Gore in a Bush-Gore race.
     A few other broad themes emerged. McCain did himself no favors with his criticism of some conservative Christian leaders, especially in the Midwest and Georgia. Nationally, a fifth of all GOP voters were part of the religious right, and they voted by 69-21 percent for Bush.
     At the same time the exit polls found little backlash for Bush among Catholic voters for his Bob Jones University visit, other than in Rhode Island and Connecticut. In New York, Bush won Catholics, a key voter group in that state; his apology to Cardinal John O’Connor may have helped.
     Here’s a state-by-state summary of the GOP contests:

California (Called for Bush. Third Wave.)
California shows how strong a candidate George Bush is when the electorate is limited to registered Republicans. He swept all major demographic groups: young and old, wealthy and less well-to-do, men and women, high school graduates and post-graduates.
     While Bush lost self-identified independents and moderates, he more than made up for that by strongly winning Republicans and conservatives. And they predominated: Eight in 10 California GOP primary voters were Republicans, six in 10 conservatives.
     Religious right voters accounted for about a fifth of voters, and opted for Bush by more than 4-to-1. But Bush also won Catholics, by a 17-point margin — easily weathering McCain's criticism that he pandered to the Christian right at the expense of Catholics.
     Bush also overcame what might have been McCain’s natural appeal to veterans; they made up about a quarter of the California electorate and Bush won a majority of them.
     While McCain made campaign finance the centerpiece of his campaign, only three percent of California Republicans said it was the one issue that mattered most in their vote. In fact only nine percent of McCain’s own voters termed it the most important issue.
     If there was any negative news in the California results for Bush, it was this: A quarter of McCain’s supporters said they’d vote for Al Gore in a Gore-Bush race. And these aren’t the Democrats and unaffiliated voters McCain attracted elsewhere — these were registered Republicans.

Connecticut (Called for McCain. Third Wave)
Bush did less well among Republicans in Connecticut’s closed primary than he did elsewhere, an opening that allowed McCain’s broad support from independents, moderates and liberals to carry the day.
     About three-quarters of voters were Republicans, but Bush won them only by about 17 points, while losing independents by more than 40 points. Further, only about half of voters were conservatives, and just one in 10 were part of the religious right.
     In a switch from some other primaries, Connecticut women were more likely than men to support McCain.

Georgia (Called for Bush. Third Wave.)
Bush’s appeal in Georgia was broader than in any other state, a very positive sign for him looking ahead to the raft of Southern primaries on March 14. He ran strongly among all age and income groups in Georgia. He appealed to moderates and liberals as well as conservatives. He ran as well with Catholics as he did with Protestants, regardless of McCain’s criticisms of Bush’s visit to Bob Jones University.
     Indeed, McCain’s criticism of Bush’s ties to conservative Protestant religious leaders seems to have hurt him here. Religious right voters accounted for roughly three in 10 Georgia Republican primary voters — more than anywhere this night — and a whopping eight in 10 of them voted for Bush.
     Additionally, nearly half the voters in Georgia said McCain attacked Bush unfairly, almost twice the number that felt Bush criticized McCain unfairly.
     McCain’s favorability rating was at a low of 53 percent, compared to a smashing 81 percent favorability rating for Bush.
     Nearly half the Georgia voters said they believe McCain’s position on the issues was not conservative enough. One reason why: Georgia voters were more supportive of cutting tax cuts over strengthening Social Security, bucking the trend in other primaries.
     McCain’s only supporters appeared to be new voters and the small number of self-identified Democrats and liberals who voted in the Republican primary. He even failed to capture veterans, in the past a stronger group for him.

Maine (Called for Bush. Third Wave.)
It was a more Republican electorate in Maine than in other New England states; two-thirds were Republicans, a third independents — and that enabled Bush to deny McCain his hoped-for New England sweep. Six in 10 Republicans supported Bush, six in 10 independents backed McCain.
     McCain also led Bush among moderates, but again Bush carried conservatives (half the electorate) by a 2-1 margin. More than a third of voters said McCain was not conservative enough; just half as many said that about Bush.
     Religious right voters, two in 10 of all voters, heavily supported Bush. And McCain failed to compensate among non religious-right voters, who split their vote. Protestants accounted for two-thirds of voters, and most of them backed Bush. Catholics, about one-fourth of the electorate, split their vote.

Maryland (Called for Bush. Third Wave)
Maryland, with its moderate suburbs ringing Washington D.C. and high percentage of Catholic voters, was thought to be fertile ground for McCain. But in fact the Maryland Republican electorate proved to be more like the states to the south.
     Bush won a majority of Catholic voters here while keeping his core support among Republicans, conservatives and Protestants. He was also able to keep McCain’s margin among better-educated and higher-income voters lower than usual.
     Bush also benefited from strong support from religious conservatives: More than a fifth of Maryland voters identified themselves as members of the religious right and seven in 10 of them went for Bush.
     McCain’s favorability rating here was only 58 percent, compared to Bush's rating of 73 percent. This may have to do with voters feeling that McCain ran a negative campaign — half of all voters said McCain attacked Bush unfairly; only one-third said Bush's attacks were unfair.
     McCain won self-identified Democrats and independents, but non-Republicans comprised only 30 percent of the Maryland electorate.
     Bush won pro-life voters by large margins, and also beat out McCain among those who said abortion should be legal in most cases.
     Bush had electability working for him here — voters said by a 2-to-1 margin that Bush is more likely than McCain to beat the Democratic presidential candidate in November.

Massachusetts (Called for McCain. Third Wave)
In this open primary state, slightly more than a third of Republican primary voters identified themselves as Republicans — the fewest we've seen in exit polls dating to 1984.
     McCain won the state on the strength of independents and Democrats voting in the Republican primary. Yet he also scored surprisingly well in other groups — running about even with Bush among conservatives.
     There was a fairly sizable group of new voters in Massachusetts — a quarter said it was their first Republican primary — and they supported McCain overwhelmingly, 85-13 percent.
     Looking toward the general election, there's evidence of potential defection to Gore in a Gore-Bush race. Three in 10 Republican primary voters said they’d vote for Gore against Bush, and these defectors overwhelmingly were McCain voters. Indeed, 44 percent of McCain voters in Massachusetts said they’d support Gore versus Bush — more than the number, 39 percent, who said they’d take Bush.

Missouri (Called for Bush. Third Wave)
Missouri looks like a case of the triumph of the conservatives. Bush won the state because of his strength among conservatives, especially religious conservatives.
     Six in 10 Missouri GOP primary voters were self-identified Republicans; more than half were conservatives&30151;and around seven in 10 in each group go for Bush. McCain won independents and moderates, but there were not enough of them overcome Bush's core GOP support.
     Furthermore, nearly four in 10 primary voters said McCains “not conservative enough.” Bush won handily among this group.
     McCain’s criticism of some religious conservative leaders looks to have hurt him in Missouri. The religious right made up about one-fourth of voters, seven in 10 of them went for Bush. And Bush doesn’t seem to have been hurt by his appearance at Bob Jones University: He won Missouri Catholics and Protestants alike.
     Bush also won veterans, by 59-34 percent.
     Potential defections to Gore in a Bush-Gore contest are not as great as in some Northeast states. One in six primary voters said they’d vote for Gore in the fall in a Gore vs. Bush race; overwhelmingly they were McCain voters. In a Gore-McCain matchup only one in 10 said they’d switch to Gore.

New York (Called for Bush. Third Wave.)
Bush won New York by mending fences with the state’s Catholics. They made up half of the primary electorate, and Bush won them by 52 to 43 percent. He also won Protestants, by a 17-point margin.
     McCain had criticized Bush for his appearance at Bob Jones University; Bush, though, apparently set it straight by apologizing to Cardinal John O’Connor for failing to speak out against the university’s anti-Catholic bias.
     Another factor in New York: The predominance of self-identified Republicans in this closed primary. They accounted for three-quarters of voters, and favored Bush by a 19-point margin. Bush also won conservative and religious right voters, as elsewhere. McCain did well among self-identified independents — but they made up only 23 percent of the Republican primary electorate.
     Finally, there was a wider than normal gender gap, with Bush winning women by 15 points, while he and McCain ran even among men.

Ohio (Called for Bush. Third Wave.)
Bush well may hope to see Ohio as a blueprint for the future — it’s a state where he extended his appeal beyond conservatives to moderate voters.
     Conservatives accounted for only about half the voters here, compared to as many as two-thirds elsewhere. And while Bush won Ohio conservatives by more than 40 percentage points, he came close to McCain among moderates, a group McCain won by double-digits elsewhere.
     At the same time, Bush benefited from a large turnout by core Republicans in Ohio. Even though it was an open primary, seven in 10 voters were self-identified Republicans, and almost seven in 10 of them supported Bush. Bush also ran strongly with the religious right (a quarter of voters). And the impact of Bush's appearance at Bob Jones University seemed minimal; he won easily among Catholic voters and Protestants alike.
     Four in 10, meanwhile, said McCain’s criticism of some religious conservative leaders had some effect on their vote: and they went for Bush by 79 to 12 percent.

Rhode Island (Called for McCain.Third Wave.)
Independent voters, a 53 percent majority of GOP primary voters in Rhode Island, were the deciding factor for McCain: He won them by more than a 40-point margin.
     McCain also won his customary support among moderates and liberals — in a state where less than half the GOP electorate was conservative.
     In this largely Catholic state, McCain won Catholics by 64-34 percent, while the two split Protestants.
     As in Massachusetts, a quarter of the primary voters said it was their first Republican primary; they supported McCain by a huge 80-18 percent
     Looking toward the general election, as in McCain's other strong New England states, Massachusetts and Vermont, about three in ten Republican primary voters said they’d defect to Gore in a Bush-Gore race.

Vermont (Called for McCain. Third Wave) Vermont’s anti-establishment, pro-insurgent electorate gave McCain broad support in virtually every demographic group. Uncharacteristically, McCain ran even with Bush among conservatives (just four in 10 voters here). And McCain won moderates and independents very heavily.
     Just half of Vermont GOP primary voters identified themselves Republicans, and McCain came close to Bush in this group — far closer than in other states.
     Fourteen percent in Vermont said they consider themselves part of the religious right; Bush won this group by two-to-one. But more than eight in 10 voters were not part of the religious right — and McCain won these voters by the same margin.
     Bush’s favorability rating was only 53 percent in Vermont, compared to McCain’s 71 percent rating. And more than six in 10 said they regarded Bush as insincere.
     Finally, in a Gore-Bush matchup, nearly three in 10 in Vermont said they’d defect to Gore, more than in most other states.