VISIT WEBSITE OF STRATEGIC FORECASTING INC

THE TEXAS-BASED think tank that last year predicted that President Estrada would not last until 2004 said yesterday that there was a "very real chance" he may be removed from office and Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would take his place.

Strategic Forecasting Inc., in its Global Intelligence Update posted in its website (www.stratfor.com), said that Macapagal as president "may increase military ties" with the United States to confront a greater security threat, China.

Stratfor said Mr. Estrada was "fighting for his political life" as members of the opposition in the House of Representatives move to impeach him for allegedly receiving "jueteng" payoffs, among other accusations.

The organization said an impeachment was "likely" because the President's political party only controls half of the House where one-third of its members must vote for impeachment.

"Conviction is less likely, but definitely possible," it said.

Stratfor noted that the administration party holds 10 of the 24 seats in the Senate, enough to block a conviction. (A two-thirds vote in the Senate is needed to convict the President). But if two defectors from his party will vote with the rest of the opposition, "then Estrada is gone."

"This scenario is not at all far-fetched, two legislators and a governor have already left the ruling party," it pointed out.

Stratfor earned the ire of Malacañang last year when it predicted that Mr. Estrada would not finish his term as he could be removed from office either by force or by an opposition-controlled Congress that could declare him unfit for office.

The Palace reacted by saying Stratfor was a "fly-by-night" outfit controlled by political opponents and elitist groups out to destabilize the administration.

Stratfor said its reports sought to provide "enlightenment about the world in which we live, empowering people to make wise decisions about their money, their politics and their work."

Stratfor said security relations between the Philippines and the United States could become stronger if Macapagal would become President.

"The United States may be on the cusp of a new strategic relationship with the Philippines," it said.

It pointed out the Georgetown University-educated Macapagal had kept a tight lid about her opinions and has been "a model Vice President, supporting and parroting the President's decisions." But her views on security issues showed more focus on external threats than internal ones.

Macapagal, it said, shies away from the resumption of a patron-client relationship that existed between the Philippines and the United States. But in August, Macapagal said she "cautiously welcomed" the possibility of US intervention in the Abu Sayyaf hostage crisis. It was then that she noted that the United States had been a traditional ally of the Philippines.

Stratfor said Macapagal viewed China as a greater threat than the United States. She was one of two senators who visited Taiwan in 1994 during its National Day and she had gone on record about her concerns on China's interests on the Spratlys.

With its "history of proprietary behavior" in the region, Stratfor said China posed a much greater long-term threat to the Philippines than to the United States.