November 6, 2000
Final RCP Electoral College Analysis:  Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2  Gore 41.9  Nader 5.8

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory.

As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

For those who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

When you sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way.

On Tuesday night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear to the national press.

We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.

An explanation of each critical battleground state can be found on the Critical Battleground State page.

 Bush 446 Gore 92

States Bush Will Win

Odds

States Gore Will Win

Odds

Alaska - 3

100%

District of Columbia - 3

100%

Utah - 5

100%

New York - 33

100%

 Idaho - 4

100%

 Hawaii - 4

100%

Montana - 3

100%

Massachusetts - 12

100%

Nebraska - 5

100%

Rhode Island - 4

100%

Kansas - 6

100%

 
Oklahoma - 8

100%

Texas - 32

100%

South Dakota - 3

100%

North Dakota - 3

100%

Wyoming - 3

100%

Colorado - 8

100%

Indiana - 12

100%

Arizona - 8

100%

Virginia - 13

100%

South Carolina - 8

100%

Alabama - 9

100%

Mississippi - 7

100%

Georgia - 13

100%

Louisiana - 9 100%
Kentucky - 8

100%

Ohio - 21 100%
North Carolina - 14

100%

Bush Has A Lock On 205 Votes Gore Has A Lock On 56 Votes
States Bush Will Probably Win States Gore Will Probably Win

Nevada - 4

95%

Connecticut - 8

95%

4 more - Bush now at 209 votes 8 more - Gore now at 64 votes
209 - SAFE FOR NOW 64 - SAFE FOR NOW
States That Are Leaning Towards Bush States That Are Leaning Towards Gore

New Mexico - 5

59%

Maryland - 10

56%

Missouri - 11

59%

Vermont - 3

52%

New Hampshire - 4

58%

 

Florida - 25

58%

Arkansas - 6

57%

Tennessee - 11

57%

Oregon - 7

56%

Washington - 11

54%

West Virginia - 5 54%

Michigan - 18

53%

Pennsylvania - 23

52%

Wisconsin -11

51%

Maine - 4 51%
141 more - Bush now at 350 votes 13 more - Gore now at 77 votes
Dead Heat States That Are 50/50
These are winner take all forced predictions
Bush Has A Slightly Better Chance Gore Has A Slightly Better Chance

Delaware - 3

50/50

New Jersey - 15

50/50

Iowa - 7

50/50

 

 

Minnesota - 10

50/50

Illinois - 22
50/50
California - 54 50/50
96 more - Bush now at 446 votes 15 more - Gore now at 92 votes
446 92

 

 

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