Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job
closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now
have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see
Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from
becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in
diluting the size of the Bush victory.
As we have
said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP
Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done
so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush
47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush
47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President
of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the
last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough
liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.
debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether
Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The
media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing
the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario
for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote
and 10-20% more than the
necessary 270 EC votes.
who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider
the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not
win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run
the table, taking IL,
CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his
base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with
a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining
battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that
George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and
Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of
the United States.
sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the
anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out
in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's
home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats
and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize
his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more
energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader
on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is
too close to call and could go either way.
night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll
analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke
even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and
the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear
today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear
to the national press.
to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win
by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether
the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois,
California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.
explanation of each critical battleground state can be found
on the Critical Battleground