US intelligence's day of reckoning
Analysis By David Kimche
(September 13) - It will take a long time for the dust to settle and for all the dead to be buried. It will take even longer for the US - and the entire world, for that matter - to return to some semblance of normalcy.
And yet, even now, officials in the Pentagon, State Department, CIA, and other US government agencies are beginning the agonizing analysis of what went wrong, what should be done to rectify past mistakes, and above all, what action should be taken against the perpetrators of this, the most evil and dastardly deed imaginable.
The first question that will be asked is how could such a complex operation have been implemented without the US intelligence agencies having any foreknowledge. The planning of the operation, the recruiting of of the personnel (including pilots willing to commit suicide), the training, the gathering of operational intelligence without which such an operation would be impossible, and finally getting those people into the US all necessitated a considerable number of people "in the know," all aware that a giant terrorist outrage was being prepared.
Terrorist cells are made up of highly dedicated people who know how to keep a secret. Yet, every such cell has a circle of people close to it who certainly do not know all the details of what is being planned, but who know a lot. There are the drivers, the relatives, the mistresses, the close friends, the messengers, all of whom could be ideal targets for recruitment by intelligence agencies.
The US, although it has tremendous capability in technological intelligence - electronic intelligence, satellite photography, listening in to telephones, intercepting faxes and e-mail messages - has put much less emphasis on "humint," collecting information by means of agents, which is all important in combating terrorism.
That will now have to be rectified. Priorities will have to be changed and a new modus operandi developed. At the same time, what will probably become the vastest manhunt in the history of mankind will be launched to identify, capture, or kill those responsible for Tuesday's strike.
If there was any state backing for the terrorists, that state will be attacked, for the US cannot allow such an act to go unpunished, or worse, risk that state continuing to support terror acts. For as of now, combating terrorism will top the list of priorities of the US. Nothing will be more urgent.
The US of today is a different country from what it was at the beginning of the week. It will have to reconsider its policies, both with regard to tightening its cooperation with the democratic countries of the world and toward the non-democratic countries. And on top of that list will be countries in the Middle East.
(The writer is president of the Council for Foreign Relations.)
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