The ongoing civil war in Afghanistan has long stalled any ambitious plans to build a potentially lucrative oil pipeline. In the last year, however, talk of a new pipeline ha begun to resurface. But the old problems remain.
Building a oil and gas pipeline across the shattered country of Afghanistan has long been the dream of many oil companies. But the ongoing civil war always gets in the way.
In the 1980s, the country was officially estimated to be capable of producing 100m barrels of oil. Untapped oil reserves are believed to be considerably higher - especially given the Soviet interest in oil extraction during its occupation of Afghanistan from 1979-89. Likewise, proven coal reserves have been put at 100m tonnes but are reckoned to be around four times that figure.
The biggest potential money-spinner, however, is a pipeline that would link the huge untapped oil and gas reserves of the former Soviet state of Turkmenistan with the energy-needy countries of South Asia, particularly India. The most direct route is across western Afghanistan - which has Turkmenistan on its northern border and Pakistan to the south.
A $6bn trans-Afghan pipeline was once the ambition of the US-based UNOCAL, a energy company that often works in "difficult" countries. Representatives from UNOCAL and from their Saudi partners, Delta Oil, frequently did the rounds of Afghanistan's warring factions in 1996 and 1997. In particular, relations with the Taliban movement, which was on the rise during this time, were cultivated by UNOCAL.
The Afghan capital, Kabul, fell to Taliban forces in September 1996. UNOCAL and Delta spent the next year trying to get a deal with the Taliban and with the opposition Northern Alliance, which then controlled the northern one-third of Afghanistan. The two companies formed the Centgas consortium in October 1997 with the Turkmen government, Itochu of Japan, Hyundai of South Korea and Pakistan's Crescent Group. The Russian firm, Gazprom, was due to sign on at a later date. UNOCAL began to offer donations to aid agencies in Afghanistan, although most turned down the funds. The company also tried to get a training project of the ground that would train Afghans to work on the pipeline.
It all came to nothing. As the hard-line policies of the Taliban gained international notoriety - particularly the movement's harsh treatment of women - UNOCAL was forced to distance itself from the extreme Sunni Muslim group. In early 1998 UNOCAL finally announced that it was putting the pipeline plan on hold, owing to financing problems. As long as Afghanistan remained unstable, the company said, it could not proceed.
Vying with UNOCAL to build a pipeline was the Argentinean firm, Bridas, which also managed to build close relations with the Taliban. The firm had previously signed an agreement with the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani, which was ousted by the Taliban in 1996 but is still recognized by the UN as the government of the Afghanistan. But, Bridas fell out of favour with the Turkmen government - each party took out lawsuits against the other - and then faded from the scene.
But the pipeline dreams have surfaced again. In May 2000 there were reports of discussions of the issue involving Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iran and Turkmenistan. And the Taliban newspaper, the Kabul Times, recently reported that the mine and industries minister, Mullah Mohammed Isa Akhond, met representatives of the Central Asia-based US company, Central Asia Oil and Gas Industry. The newspaper quoted company representative, Rafiq Yadgar as saying: "Central Asia Oil and Gas Industry is ready to invest in Afghanistan in the field of oil and gas extraction and meanwhile is willing to build an gas and oil refinery in Afghanistan." He added that Turkmen authorities are ready to co-operate with his company.
No doubt they are. The country's dictatorial president, Saparmurad Niyazov, has long engaged the Taliban, in a bid to stem off cross-border instability. Niyazov has squashed any squeaks of opposition but manages to appease his poor population with promises of future oil riches.
"With the establishing of this project the mutual interest of both sides will be secured," the Taliban's mine and industries minister told the Kabul Times. But even the shared goals may not ensure that this plan, or any other, will get off the ground. Afghanistan has been at war for more than 20 years. Its infrastructure is shattered, its economy in tatters and the worst drought in three decades is compounding the misery of its long-suffering population. The sole remaining opposition to the Taliban, the United Front, is trying to hang on to the 5-10% of the country that it still controls. Should any pipeline actually get off the ground it will be a prime target for sabotage the United Front whose leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud, excels at guerrilla tactics.
And wider, international interests may also get in the way. Iran would
like to see Turkmen reserves flow across its borders while Russia would
like any pipeline to head its way. Also staking a claim is the US, which
would like Turkey to be the end-point for Turkmen oil and gas. The pipeline
plan looks set to remain on the drawing board for the foreseeable future.