logo image

| Homepage | Contents |

League Championship Games Prediction Calculation

Note: To properly view this page, you may need to set YOUR BROWSER to a SMALL FONT for PREFORMATTED TEXT. To print this page, use a combination of font/page width to enable you to print 132 columns per page.


 
<! -----  Insert Here  --------------->
 
                        BUD GOODE'S SPORTS COMPUTER - P.O. BOX 1567, STUDIO CITY, CALIF. 91604
 REPORT 2                         NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE PROJECTED SCORING -    0                    WEEK 19 - 01/09/97
                           Bud Goode Sports Computer, Copyright 1998, All Rights Reserved.
                                DATA YR 1997 PRED. WEEK 19 PRIOR YR 1996 SCHED YR 1997                 WEIGHT = 0.000
 
 
                                                                  TEAMS (MATCHING TEAMS MEET THIS WEEK)
                 LEAGUE     -----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  -----------
                 AVERAGE     G B   DEN
                 -------    ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----  ----- -----
 TOTAL RUSHING PL  28.44    32.01 30.00
 AVG. YARDS PER R   3.96     4.51  4.01
 OPPONENT TOT.RUS  28.77    30.00 32.01
 OPP.AVG.YDS.PER    3.96     4.01  4.51
 YARDS PER PASS A   5.68     6.31  5.70
 OP.YDS.PER PASS    5.78     5.70  6.31
 FIRST DOWNS PER    3.64     4.34  5.67
 TD'S SCORED ON R   0.25     0.38  0.63
 OPP.TD'S ON RETU   0.25     0.25  0.32
 FUM. LOST THIS Y   0.79     1.00  0.63
 OPP.FUMBLES RECO   0.79     0.69  0.82
 PASSES HAD INTER   1.05     1.00  2.01
 OP.PASSES INTERC   1.02     2.01  1.00
 QB SACKS. LOTSA    2.65     2.01  3.01
 OPP. QB SACKED.    2.61     3.01  2.01
 FIELD GOALS BOOT   1.48     1.50  1.75
 FIELD GOALS BY O   1.50     1.50  1.50
 YARDS RUSHING (N 112.89   144.01120.00
 OPP.YDS.RUSHING  114.16   120.00144.01
 
 PREDICTED POINTS SCORE
 OFFENSE           18.51    23.30 20.73
 DEFENSE           19.47    18.81 24.88
 
 HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE              0.00
 WINNING MARGIN (POINTS)     8.64 *****
 
 ACTUAL POINTS PER GAME
 OFFENSE           20.75    26.38 29.50
 DEFENSE           20.75    17.63 17.94
 
 
           SUBJECTIVE MODIFICATIONS USED
 
                                                OLD      NEW
     TEAM                VARIABLE              VALUE    VALUE
 ------------   ----------------------------   ------   ------
 GREEN BAY      10  TOTAL RUSHING PLAYS.        28.69    32.00
 DENVER         10  TOTAL RUSHING PLAYS.        32.50    30.00
 GREEN BAY      11  AVG. YARDS PER RUSH.         4.16     4.50
 DENVER         11  AVG. YARDS PER RUSH.         4.57     4.00
 GREEN BAY      52  OPPONENT TOT.RUSHES.        27.69    30.00
 DENVER         52  OPPONENT TOT.RUSHES.        23.81    32.00
 GREEN BAY      53  OPP.AVG.YDS.PER RUSH.        4.23     4.00
 DENVER         53  OPP.AVG.YDS.PER RUSH.        4.73     4.50
 GREEN BAY      82  YARDS PER PASS ATT.          6.75     6.30
 DENVER         82  YARDS PER PASS ATT.          6.38     5.70
 GREEN BAY      83  OP.YDS.PER PASS ATT.         4.89     5.70
 DENVER         83  OP.YDS.PER PASS ATT.         5.03     6.30
 GREEN BAY      19  PASSES HAD INTERCPT.         1.00     1.00
 DENVER         19  PASSES HAD INTERCPT.         0.69     2.00
 GREEN BAY      60  OP.PASSES INTERCEPTD.        1.31     2.00
 DENVER         60  OP.PASSES INTERCEPTD.        1.13     1.00
 GREEN BAY      17  QB SACKS. LOTSA OUCH.        1.63     2.00
 DENVER         17  QB SACKS. LOTSA OUCH.        2.19     3.00
 GREEN BAY      58  OPP. QB SACKED. OUCH.        2.56     3.00
 DENVER         58  OPP. QB SACKED. OUCH.        2.75     2.00
 GREEN BAY       8  YARDS RUSHING (NET).       119.31   144.00
 DENVER          8  YARDS RUSHING (NET).       148.63   120.00
 GREEN BAY      50  OPP.YDS.RUSHING NET.       117.25   120.00
 DENVER         50  OPP.YDS.RUSHING NET.       112.69   144.00
 
 Notes on SUBJECTIVE MODIFICATIONS
 Bud Goode
 
 If we assume the Packers are stronger on both offense and defense
 then we can modify the existing data and make "guestimates" of their
 Super Bowl performances:
 
 Running game:  Denver ran the ball more, on average, 32+ rushes per game
 vs 29 for the Pack.  But if we assume Brett Favre's passing efficiency stats
 are better than John Elway's, it is likely the Pack will be protecting a lead
 and running the ball in the 4th quarter.
 
 This assumption fits the data, i.e., the Broncos allowed 4.74 yards per rush
 this season (although improved in the second half of the year).
 
 The Pack, therefor should be on the ground perhaps 32 times per game, with 
 a 4.5 yards per carry average.
 
 The Pack also lead the Broncos on Yards per Pass, 6.75 to 6.38.  It is likely
 the Pack will earn a winner's average (6.3 yards per toss) and the Broncos will
 earn a "loser's" average (5.7).
 
 How about INTs and Sacks?
 
 John Elway has not been an "efficient" qb in previous Super Bowl games.  He 
 relied on his arm too much.  Payoff?  Mucho sacks and INTS at a cost of 3 points
 per sack and 5 points per INT.  What was the score in the Redskin Super B.?  
 Something like 42-10.
 
 So give Elway one INT and one Sack more than Favre.
 
 Running yards will depend on the lead in the final quarter.  With the Pack in the
 lead, Dorsey L. should get his 100 yards plus...The Bronco's T. Davis should do
 well, too.  But against the Pack's "D" line and LBs (Gil Brown at 300 + 40 or 50 or 60)
 will make it rough on the Bronco rush offense.  How about 120 rush yards for Denver, 144
 for the Pack.
 
 Put it all in the electronic hardware and the computer aided projection is: Packers
 by 9.
 
 Bud Goode
 Studio City, CA
<! -----  Insert Here  --------------->
 
 
 


| Homepage | Contents |