I hope everyone had a safe and prosperous holiday season. Let's dip into our Down on the Farm stocking, and see what we can find. And this week, no Pete Rose lumps of coal, I promise.

Jon S. writes: Please tell this disgruntled Braves fan that Johnny Estrada can be a good regular catcher.

Well, I could do that, except I was a Boy Scout and still have some residual mental conditioning about telling the truth.

	Estrada

The Estrada/Kevin Millwood trade has been thoroughly covered elsewhere on ESPN.com and in the press. Everyone knows this was a desperate salary dump by the Braves. The questions revolve around whether GM John Schuerholz handled it well. It seems hard to believe that Estrada was the only player available, and that the Phillies were the only option for trade. Even if that was true on that particular day, the move reeks of "we have to do something right now" despondency, when even waiting a few days or a week could possibly have turned up a better offer. It certainly couldn't have turned up a worse one. Atlanta's financial constraints placed Schuerholz in an impossible strategic position, forcing a retreat, but tactically it seems likely that he could have done a better job in resolving the situation.

To answer your question, while the Braves have talked a good game about Estrada being the catcher of the future, I don't think he has enough offensive potential to be a starter for a good team. He was originally drafted by the Phillies in 1997, as a 17th-round pick from the Junior College of the Sequoias in California. He unexpectedly spent most of 2001 in the majors, replacing the injured Mike Lieberthal. He played well with the glove, but hit just .228. He spent most of 2002 in Triple-A, hitting .279 with 11 homers. He was over .300 for much of the first half, but went into a slump in July and ended up with mediocre overall numbers.

In the majors, he looks like a .250-.260 hitter, with a little power, but with a low OBP due to his small walk rates. Given his age, 26, I don't see much potential for growth. His defensive ability and occasional pop would make him a good reserve, but I think he'll be overmatched as a regular.

Jessica J. asks: What do you think Jose Contreras and Hideki Matsui will do for the Yankees?

Let's take this one at a time.

On Contreras: Quoting an Associated Press article, "Jose Contreras is most certainly the premier amateur pitcher in the world and may be the best pitcher ever in amateur play," said Gordon Blakeley, the Yankees' vice president of international and professional scouting. "He has an exceptional fastball and breaking ball, plus a championship makeup, and we expect him to have great success at the major league level."

Blakeley's assessment doesn't seem to be just Yankee hyperbole, at least according to other people I've talked with. A highly-placed front office contact from another team, who wishes to remain anonymous, tells me that Contreras is definitely the top talent to come out of Cuba since the island began to open up, and is possibly the best "mature" foreign free agent signing of the last 10 years. He's a complete package, experienced and talented. He would be the No. 1 starter for "20 or 22 of the 30 teams in the game" right now according to this source, and that may be a conservative estimate.

I've only seen Contreras on TV a few times, but nothing I've seen or heard indicates that this guy is anything but the real deal.

On Matsui: Rob Neyer wrote about this a few days ago. He pointed to an article by Jim Albright, who developed a method of translating Japanese statistics into American equivalents, and vice versa.

I've been tinkering with JLEs myself since my days working for Bill James, and the translation factors I've used are almost the same as Albright's, which makes sense since our methodology in deriving the factors was very similar, although independently developed. Anyhow, Albright projects Matsui as a .300 hitter, with a .400 OBP and a SLG in the low-to-mid .500 range. I see no reason to disagree with this projection.

I would note that Ichiro Suzuki has shown a bit less home run power in North America than his numbers in Japan would suggest. If that holds true with Matsui, he could end up with a SLG slightly lower than expected, say .490-.500 rather than .520-.530, but his batting averages and OBP should remain in the .300/.400 range.

Pulling some numbers out of the ether, I'll project that Matsui will hit .297, with a .401 OBP and a .499 SLG for the Yankees in 2003. That's conservative.

In any event, I have no doubt that Contreras and Matsui will do very well in North America. I like seeing this on a macro level, as anything that makes baseball more of an international game is good in my book. But the dominance of the Yankees on the international free agent market does grow a bit tiresome for those of us who are not special fans of the Bronx Wallets.

L.A. writes: I was wondering about a player in the Angels farm system named Matt Hensley. I saw that his K/BB ratio was pretty good: 106/39 in 117.2 innings. However, I haven't heard his name mentioned as an Angels prospect. Will he ever make the big leagues or is his future in the minors?

Hensley was a 10th-round pick in the 2000 draft, out of Grossmont Junior College in California. A 6-2, 220 pound 24-year-old right-hander, Hensley has average stuff all-around, but has good control, and has done OK as a professional. He reached Triple-A in '02, and while his 4.97 ERA at Salt Lake wasn't impressive on the surface, that's a tough park for a pitcher. He went 7-5 in 18 starts, and as you point out, he posted a reasonably impressive K/BB ratio of 106/39 in 117.2 innings. On the other hand, he gave up 132 hits, a lot even when considering park and league contexts.

Hensley is a Grade C prospect, and doesn't show up on most assessments of the Angels' farm system. Since he doesn't throw that hard, he must rely on precision and command to succeed. If he can improve his command from "good" to "excellent," he could pull a surprise at some point. He should appear in the majors eventually, but is likely to spend the next 10 years bouncing between Triple-A and the Show.

R.B. asks: I'm probably the only person in America who consistently asks you questions regarding the Marlins. Where is the power in their farm system now that the team has traded away Cliff Floyd, Preston Wilson, et al. Adrian Gonzalez? Of course it doesn't matter once these guys produce they'll ship 'em off anyway.

Throughout their history, the Marlins have focused on pitching and athleticism in their minor league system, with power a secondary (if not tertiary) consideration. This remains true today, although their farm is not completely bereft of power hitters.

Adrian Gonzalez is the youngster most likely to make an impact in the immediate future. The first player picked in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez hit 17 homers in Double-A in '02, following his 17-homer campaign for Class A Kane County in '01. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but there is reason to think his power numbers will increase. He is very young; at 20, he was one of the youngest players in Double-A last year. He hit 34 doubles to go with his 17 homers, so it seems likely his power will go up as he matures. Most expect him to settle into the 25-homer range once he reaches the Show. His batting averages are uncertain at this point. He hit over .300 in '01, but batted just .266 in '02. That's far from catastrophic considering his youth, and he does have decent command of the strike zone. Gonzalez has the look of a .280+, 20-25 homer hitter to me. We'll know more in a year.

But as much as the Marlins like Gonzalez, he is not considered untouchable. That tag belongs to first baseman Jason Stokes, like Gonzalez a product of the '00 draft, in his case as a second round pick. He was considered first-round material out of high school in Texas, but his perceived bonus demands dropped his stock. Stokes had fought injuries, but was healthy most of '02 and devastated the Midwest League, hitting .341 with 27 homers and 47 walks in just 349 at-bats. He doesn't have Gonzalez's defensive ability, but has much greater power potential.

Other than the Gonzalez/Stokes pair, the Marlins don't have much in the way of power hitters. Outfielder Will Smith hit .299 with 14 homers for Class A Jupiter, while teammate Josh Willingham contributed 17 dingers and a .274 average. First baseman Pat Magness hit .292 with 16 homers and 79 walks. All three could be contributors, Smith especially, down the road, but aren't considered blue chippers. One guy who is considered a blue chipper is third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who hit nine homers last year. But he also knocked 43 doubles, and was one of the youngest regulars in the Florida State League. His power hasn't fully developed yet, but it is there in raw form.

Florida's strength in prospects remains on the mound and on the bases; they have nine prospects who swiped 19 or more bases last year. That's been their philosophy for a long time, and despite the change in regime, it seems likely to remain so.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.