To collect information on terror and terrorist acts, the Pentagon is essentially setting up a betting parlor. It's a market of sorts where investors buy futures based on what they think will happen. For example, when biological weapons will be used against Israel or the likelihood that Yassar Arafat will be overthrown. The Pentagon will use this as a research tool to predict help predict threats. Is it just me, or is the real news getting harder and harder to distinguish from the Onion?
Posted by morgaana at July 29, 2003 07:19 AM | TrackBackThe concept that a sufficiently large number of answers to a question will tend to cluster around the correct one isn't too far fetched. The idea of applying it as a predictor of future events through a government run wagering system was explored in John Brunner's book Shockwave Rider back in the mid 70s.
Posted by: john at July 29, 2003 09:30 AMit just seems like there would be another way to collect that sort of information. like analyzing existing markets for subtle shifts in key areas that could help predict the same sorts of events. it's not like they expect to act solely on the information from this market anyway. that book sounds right up my alley. should add in nicely to my "how to get placed on a watch list" reading list. :)
Posted by: laura at July 29, 2003 07:30 PM