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When you're done looking through this site, I encourage you to do a google search for "Peak Oil." You will find, much to your dismay as well as my own, that everything on this site is backed up by hard science, undeniable fact, and clear logic.
On top of that, you don't need to go further than the nightly news or morning newspaper to realize the predictions of many Peak Oil "doomsayers" are already coming true at an alarming rate.
Unfortunately, what you're reading is the optimistic outlook. As Matt Simmons has explained repeatedly to anyone who would listen: the situation is even worse than the most pessimistic of the pessimists thought it would be. In a recent interview, Simmons stated:
"The optimists turned out to be wrong. The jury has rendered the verdict. The optimists have lost. Much field data now proves their total thesis was wrong. The pessimists unfortunately, and ironically, might also be wrong. But most assume that this day of reckoning is still years away. They too might also be too optimistic. My analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away."
As Simmons and numerous other experts with impeccable credentials are trying to tell you, Peak Oil is here and the ramifications are about to hit you and your family hard.
"Deal with Reality, or Reality will Deal with You."
Are you ready for $7 per gallon gas, $182
per barrel oil, 50 percent yearly inflation, total economic collapse, unending resource wars, and a large-scale reinstitution of the military draft?
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global “Peak Oil” and related geopolitical events.
The situation is so dire, even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
"It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."
When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:
"I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."
When a man like Simmons makes a prediction of $182 barrel oil, we had all better pay attention.
Simmons isn't the only one sounding the alarm. According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham:
"America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."
“By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”
Cheney ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”
This is equivalent to six times the amount of oil produced per day by Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer.
“The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.”
Long-awaited book, The Oil Age is Over now available.
It's not just members of the Bush Administration who are extraordinarily concerned about Peak Oil. Avowed leftist and democratic demigod Michael Moore believes it to be a life and death issue for the entire industrialized world. In his most recent book, Dude, Where's My Country?, Moore dedicates an entire chapter, "Oil's Well That Ends Well" to the and unprecedented suffering the industrialized world will soon endure if people don't wake up to the reality of Peak Oil.
Anytime three members of the Bush administration and the Saudis are in complete agreement with Michael Moore and a high ranking environmentalist, it's safe to say the sh_t has hit the fan.
No. It will be far worse. The oil shock of 1979, for instance, was caused when Iran cut its oil production by 1 million barrels per day, creating a shortfall in the world's oil supply of less than five percent. While this doesn't sound like much, it was enough to send the world economy into a severe recession.
Luckily, there were other swing producers such as Venezuela who stepped in to alleviate the crisis. Once world production peaks, there won't be any swing producers to turn to. The crisis will not be alleviated. It will just get worse with each passing year.
Furthermore, the shortfall in oil supply that will follow the peak will eclipse the shortfalls of the 1970's.
Once we pass the peak, oil production will decline (conservatively) by 1.5-3% per year. Oil demand, however, will continue to increase by 1.5-3% per year. This means that one year post-peak, we will experience a 3-6% shortfall in oil supply.
Ten years post peak, that shortfall will have increased to a staggering 30-60%. Fifteen years post-peak, that shortfall will have increased to a market shattering 45-90%.
Not really. The ability of renewable energy to replace oil is based more in myth and fantasy than science and reality.
Oil has had an Energy Profit Ratio as high as 100 to 1. This means it takes one unit of energy to produce 100 units. None of the alternatives have EPR's that even approach that of oil. Some of the alternatives, such as Hydrogen are energy losers, while others, such as biodiesel, barely break even.
The problem with these alternatives is not one of technical feasibility. They do work. The problem is they do not work anywhere near as well as oil. Even in the best of circumstances, they cannot produce anywhere near enough net energy to fuel even a fraction of our current oil-powered economy.
Furthermore, almost every advocate of alternative energy fails to realize two absolutely key points:
1. It takes a tremendous amount of oil to build alternatives to oil such as solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. The construction of an average solar panel system, for instance, consumes about as much energy as the construction of a brand new SUV.
2. It would take even more oil to retrofit our multi-trillion dollar, fossil fuel based infrastructure to run on these alternative sources of energy.
If you have any questions, feel free to email me. I get back to most of my emails within 72 hours.
P.O. Box 141
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Santa Rosa, Ca 95405
As of June 25, I have less than 125 copies left. The second edition won't be available for about 8 weeks.
We won't "run out of oil"; a vast amount will still be flowing - just not quickly enough to satisfy demand. And as any economists can tell you, when supply falls behind demand, bad things happen.
During the 1979 Iranian revolution, the last time oil production fell off significantly, world oil prices hit the modern equivalent of $80 a barrel. And that, keep in mind, was a temporary decline. If world oil production were to truly peak and begin a permanent decline, the effect would be staggering: Prices would not come back down. Any part of the global economy dependent on cheap energy - which is to say, pretty much everything these days - would be changed forever.
And that's the good news.
The term "peak" tends to suggest a nice, neat curve. But in the real world, the landing will not be soft. As we hit the peak, soaring prices -$70, $80, even $100 a barrel - will encourage oil companies and oil states to scour the planet for oil. For a time, they will succeed, finding enough crude to keep production flat, thus stretching out the peak into a kind of plateau and perhaps temporarily easing fears. But in reality, this manic, post-peak production will deplete remaining reserves all the more quickly, thus ensuring that the eventual decline is far steeper and more sudden. As one US government geologist put it to me recently, "the edge of a plateau looks like a cliff."
As production falls off this cliff, prices won't simply increase; they will fly. If our oil dependence hasn't lessened drastically by then, the global economy is likely to slip into a recession so severe that the Great Depression will look like a dress rehearsal. Oil will cease to be viable as a fuel. Political reaction will be desperate. Competition for remaining oil supplies would intensify, potentially leading to a new kind of political conflict: energy wars.
may all who buy this book be blessed, prospered, and informed
What makes the situation even worse is the fact our market economy won't begin to aggressively pursue these (modest) alternatives until it is too late.
Reason: the amount of energy contained in a barrel of oil would cost about $200 to get from renewable sources. Thus, energy companies won't begin heavily investing in renewable energy until oil prices breach the $200 per barrel mark.
At that point, however, it will be too late - we will be in the midst of economic anarchy. Under such conditions, it will be impossible to implement large-scale renewable energy programs, as these programs all require siginficant amounts of cheap oil, which will no longer be available.
Without an abundant supply of cheap oil, we will have no way to power a transition to something other than oil.
Thus, once we pass the oil production peak, a return to a medieval style of existence will become inevitable.
Unfortunately, it is not that simple. We have a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure powered almost exclusively by fossil-fuels. Cars, trucks, roads, boats, docks, airplanes, airports, hospitals, schools, farms manufacturing plants, food processing centers, water treatment plants - all run on fossil fuels. All plastics, pesticides, and fertilizers are derived from fossil fuels.
You can't just retrofit the entire economy, or even significant parts of it, to run on an entirely different source of fuel.
Furthermore, the emergence of a truly viable alternative to oil would be an absolute nightmare for the US economy.
The US dollar is the reserve currency for all oil transactions in the world - hence the term "petrodollar." This means that whenever oil is bought and sold - anywhere in the world, by anyone - the money exchanged circulates into the US economy. The strength of the US economy is directly tied to the strength of the petrodollar.
If a truly viable alternative to oil was to emerge, and the nations of the world began to use it, the petrodollar would collapse.
This would drive the US economy straight into a brick wall.
Not without instituting a complete financial meltdown. The reason is simple: we have an economy mired in debt: corporate debt, government debt, and consumer debt are all at record levels. In order to finance debt, you need economic growth. Economic growth requires a constantly increasing consumption of consumer goods - most of which are made from plastic, which comes from petroleum (oil) and are delivered by trucks, which consume diesel fuel (oil).
A truly successful conservation program would require us to drastically cut our consumption of consumer goods, which would halt economic growth dead in its tracks. This would cause indebted corporations, governments, and individuals to all slide towards bankruptcy. Banks would call in outstanding debts, businesses would close, government services would cease, and people would lose their jobs. The Great Depression would begin to look like the "good old days."
The report explained that the "central dilemma" for the US administration is that "the American people continue to demand plentiful and cheap energy without sacrifice or inconvenience." It warned that the US is running out of oil, with a painful end to cheap fuel already in sight.
It argued that "the United States remains a prisoner of its energy dilemma," and that one of the "consequences" of this is a "need for military intervention" to secure its oil supply.
The level of military intervention necessary to secure the quantity of oil we need will require a large-scale reinstitution of the military draft.
Without an abundant supply of cheap energy, transportation systems will break down. Electrical grids will collapse. Unemployment levels will skyrocket. Consumer goods will only be available to the super-rich. Food and water will become desperately sought after commodities. Riots and urban uprisings will become common.
The more draconian provisions of the Patriot Act and related legislation will likely be implemented in hopes of preventing anarchy.
Called the "most important book of the century," The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil 2005-2050" covers everything the average person needs to know about Peak Oil. Written in an engaging, easy to understand, question-and-answer format, the book leaves no stone unturned.
Written in an engaging, question-and-answer format, cover the following topics:
*What is Peak Oil and why running out of oil is not the problem. We have at least 40 years of oil left, but are within 4 years of a severe, unprecedented, and permanent oil shortages. How can that be?
Why comparing the coming oil shortages to the oil shortages of the 1970's will seem like comparing a heart attack to indigestion.
*Is there any oil left that we haven't discovered?
*Alberta has enough oil in its oil sands to power us for hundreds, if not thousands of years. Why then, will it not prevent this crisis?
*Why even a tripling of current oil reserves only buys us an extra 25 years.
*Why even an immediate 65% percent reduction in oil consumption would only delay the inevitable by one generation.
*Why buying hybrid vehicles could accelerate the crash.
*What the war in Iraq is really about. Hint: it's is not "just about the oil", or controlling the Middle East. Oil is involved, but the true roots of the war run far deeper than oil.
*Why you're not hearing about Peak Oil on either CNN or Fox.
*Why the oil companies are not to blame.
*The geological, technological, and biological issues surrounding Peak Oil.
*Irrefutable biological proof humanity is on the verge of a severe population crash.
*A thorough expose of every single form of renewable energy - what they can do, what they can't, and which ones are the most promising.
*Why so called "Tesla technology" might make our situation disastrously worse.
*Why you need to get solar panels installed on your roof as soon as possible.
*Will America fare any better than the rest of the world? The undeniable truth will shock you.
*The coming global war between the US and the EU.
*Why US military action against Canada is becoming more of a possibility.
*What weapons are being developed for the coming global resource wars and why our leaders will have little choice but to use them.
*When is the draft going to be reinstated? Why electing John Kerry to office virtually guarantees you or your child will be drafted to fight in the next oil war.
*Why the situation in North Korea should serve as a warning to the US.
*Which members of both the Bush and Clinton administrations live in completely "off the grid" homes. Think these individuals might be expecting severe energy shortages?
*Peak Oil, 9-11, and the global war on terror.
*Peak Oil, the Patriot Act, and the domestic war on dissent.
*What the heck does Depleted Uranium have to do with Peak Oil? A lot. The connection is extremely disturbing.
*Why Bill Clinton and Michael Moore are just as much to blame as George Bush and Rush Limbaugh.
*Lots of information on how to maintain a positive attitude given the incredibly grim future that awaits us (yes, it really is possible).
*Peak Oil and immigration issues.
*What should Baby Boomers expect in the years to come? What should members of Generations X and Y expect?
*What Bush's proposal to go to the Moon and to Mars has to do with Peak Oil.
*What needs to happen in order for conservation and renewable energy programs to make any difference at all.
*What are the connections between Peak Oil and the war on drugs and the invasion of Afghanistan?
*Responses to every imaginable Peak Oil counter-argument, even the one about the whale oil crisis of the 1800's.
*More on why the market and the laws of supply and demand will not solve this for us. Capitalism has some great features, but it has an Achilles heel that's about to be exposed for all to see.
*What activists need to consider if they want to make an actual difference.
*Peak Oil and global climate change.
Few who read The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil are ever the same again. Take a look at some of the letters I have received:
"God, am I glad I read your book. I couldn't stop shivering as I read some parts of it. Just so you know, I'm a very skeptical person by nature, so it was hard for me to accept all this but as I followed your links/references, and did other research on the Internet, I realized that what you're predicting is true. My life has definitely changed, I notified my fiancee' of all this and although she doesn't want to hear it because it bothers her, I know for a fact that I'm going to immediately make some changes in my life."
"I am speechless, even more so as this is a printed message instead of a spoken one. Thank you for a concise and clear headed approach to some very disturbing news. Still speechless..."
"I finished your book last weekend. Very clear, and very informative."
I don't know whether I have already sent you an email about your stunning work - stunning in every sense of tthe word. Congratulations.
"Nobody can read this book and not be convinced. I got a sick feeling in my stomach about 1/4 of the way through the it as reality slapped me across the face. If you didn't make so much sense and didn't back everything up with facts and citations, I would think this is all some horrible nightmare. Thank god I read it now, while I still have time to make changes."
My refund policy is simple: You get a complete refund if, after reading the book, you aren't:
1. Convinced beyond a reasonable doubt Peak Oil is as serious a threat as I make it out to be, and
2. Extremely glad you purchased the book.
My refund policy is simple: ,just send the book back within 30 days of receiving it, and I will give you a complete refund, no questions asked.
The money back guarantee applies to the E-Book version as well. If, within 30 days of your purchase, you're not satisfied the book makes good on all five of my promises, just send me an email with the word 'refund' in the header, and I will give you your money back within 48 hours. You get to keep the E-Book.