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CFHC Talkback For News Story #127:
Newest Talkback: 07:07 PM 10-02 EDT

Keith/Joyce
04:57 AM EDT - 02 October 2000

This morning Keith has been in a weird position. It has been half over land and half over water. And with not moving much at all last night, has had the land (and everone on it, unfortunately) take its toll on the hurricane's structure. It hasn't moved one bit, and still continues to pound Belize. It's future track is still projected by the National Hurricane Center to eventually head north over the peninsula and into the Gulf as a Tropical Storm. Keith's non-movement may be good for the US, but it's been a nightmare for the folks in Belize. So it's not the best solution.

Joyce is now projected to be a Tropical Storm in about 72 hours south of Cuba in the Western Caribbean, so we'll have that to watch as well. Any interaction between Keith and Joyce could make things interesting later down the road. We'll be watching.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #38 (of 38 total)

Comments (#1)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 05:00AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


I enjoy people's constructive comments as much as anyone. But last article had too many personal attacks and outright off topic posts. It started with the first three posts last night, and should have been stopped right away.

Please refrain from making personal attacks against anyone.

For those that were on topic, I apologize, but the thread in general was very negative. Hopefully this morning it will be better.

As of now anyone who continues to make personal attacks and/or troll for flames on this board will be banned from posting.

Thank You, Mike C.

Why? (#2)
Posted by: kandi Location: deltona
Posted On 06:34AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPWNSPNUSNRPW*)


Thank you. I don't know that much about these things, so why is Keith just staying stationary instead of moving somewhere? Is it the atmosphere or the winds or what?

Cancun (#3)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:12AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQSR*)


Hello All,
I really need some input here. I am going down to Cancun this comming Sunday. I really would like to here some outlooks with Keith as well as Joyce. My wife is getting worried as well as I. I am flying out of Miami and staying in Cancun for a week any thoughts on what I'll find by then.
Please!!

Why Staionary (#4)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:22AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRV*)


This is the way I understand it. Keith is cut off from the strong steering currents. He created his own ridge of high pressure while at a Cat 4. Then he got wrapped up in it. There have been no strong troughs to pull or tug at him or to change the surrounding area yet. Therefore, Keith just sat where he was drifting ever so slightly south probably the southward drift being caused by the momentum of his spin. Now that he has lost some intensity he will be more susceptible to any new burst of energy or pull that could come from his environment. Hopefully this will serve to alleviate the flooding and destruction in Belize.

Palm Bay (#5)
Posted by: Steve H
Posted On 07:33AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


What's with the convection and cyclonic looking feature south of Cuba? Was this anticipated? I think the AVN had it yesterday. ANy future to it? Seems too close to Keith to develop. ANy thoughts or am I mis-reading this? Cheers!!

Steve, Mark (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:08AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSW*)


1st to Steve: Great call on the area by Cuba...this could be a potential problem for Florida in the next two days...seems as though Keith is causing problems all over the place...TWC seems to be very concerned about this area (which, of course, means that so is NHC!!!) Looks like we will have our eyes focused southward for at least the next week.

To Mark: as far as your trip to Cancun is concerned, the best advice I can give you is this: keep your eyes and ears tuned to that area for the next 5 days. We may have more problems than Keith to deal with in that area by the time your trip time approaches. Besides that, if the situation is not good, you will not be flying anywhere near Cancun. Hope that helps a little...
Colleen

Which Area? (#7)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 09:16AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


Colleen, which area is TWC concerned with? Keith or the area near Cuba?

Steve (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:29AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXS*)


They are concerned about the area near Cuba. Sorry, I forget you are at work and can't watch TV..Marshall Seese just stated on the Tropical Update that the NHC is monitoring the Cuba area very closely because of the very good possibility of tropical development. Also, the weather in S. Florida is deteriorating rapidly, and most of the focus is on the potential for severe weather today in S. florida and then northwards tonight. Hope that helps!!!! Colleen

HEAVY RAIN COMING TO S.FLA. (#9)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 09:58AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)


Looks like we are going to get some heavy rains here in South Florida this afternoon. It's coming up from Cuba.

NWS Discussions.... (#10)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:19AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTY*)


should explain the Cuba low pressure area quite well. Tampa Bay is considering issuing Flash Flood Advisories for Tues/Tues nite. Interesting next few days on tap. So much for the "Sunshine State"....

Thank you (#11)
Posted by: kandi Location: deltona
Posted On 10:36AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPXNQSPNYVNQ*)


I want to thank Colleen also for the information. I'm at work also so I can't see the TV and what the latest is. I log on here everytime I get a break (2x a day). I do appreciate the information from all of you.

Joyce DIES (#12)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:04AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRQX*)


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE...SATELLITE
PICTURES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT JOYCE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL WAVE.



Re: Joyce Dies (#13)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:17AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTX*)


Interestingly enough, she did...for now...I wouldn't write her off just yet, though..she may come back to haunt us!!! That area she is in is not conducive to tropical development, but, as John Hope just said, she will be moving into an area that would be more favorable for redevelopment...I guess we will find out, sooner or later!!!

Colleen :-)

Colleen (#14)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:25AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRQX*)


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.html Go to this site and look at day six they have a low off Tampa Bay not sure what it is but it's not keith.

Re: Low (#15)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:55AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTX*)


Gary...I think that could be the area of low pressure just below Cuba right now. I looked at day 5 and it looks like it's coming from that general direction.

By the way, thanks for the link!!!!

Colleen

FLOOD WATCH 5-8 (#16)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 11:57AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)


BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1109 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2000

...FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF MIAMI-DADE...
BROWARD...MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO PALM BEACH AND HENDRY COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 5 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE
FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND POORLY DRAINED METROPOLITAN
AREAS.

Tropical weather (#17)
Posted by: Mark Location: central florida
Posted On 11:59AM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTY*)


Enjoy this website and all the "amateur" meterologist's comments. While I enjoy tracking the storms, this season, it seems we are so ready for something that we look at every rain producing cloud pattern in the tropics as the next catostrophic storm. Having lived in Florida for over 50 years, I can honestly tell you, we don't get hit by that many storms of any consequence. Modern satellites and forcasting tools have made it easier for us "amateurs" to think we know more than we really do. We need a rain producing event in Florida as we are still well under our normal rainfall for the year.
Its raining in Cuba....should I be worried? I think not.

or it could be..... (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:00PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTX*)


Joyce, after reading their discussion. However, this was from yesterday (the discussion) so it will be interesting to see their next update. I don't know how often they do them, do you? Colleen

Hurricane Keith (#19)
Posted by:
al fong Location: Kingston,Jamaica
Posted On 12:20PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RQVNRURNQSQNQWP*)


Has anyone heard anything out of Belize about what kind of destruction has taken place down there?

I'd like to see a picture of this..... (#20)
Posted by: bubba
Posted On 12:23PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNQUXNQUYNQRV*)


RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE BAY OF CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY WATER CAN RAPIDLY RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BAY
SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

I Read that Too! (#21)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:34PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTX*)


Bubba...I also heard and read about that...can you imagine people walking around Tampa Bay???? What a sight that would be.......

I have not heard any reports of destruction from Belize, just about the heavy rains. Maybe someone else has heard about it.

Colleen... (#22)
Posted by: David
Posted On 01:13PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


I'm sure once all of the madness clears up (mother natures work) the media will be in there with the Red Cross. I'm sure Belize will be declared a disaster, and there will be all kinds of funds being poured into the area. Just imagine the kind of damage (wrath of God type stuff) that Keith would of done he if head parked himself off of Tampa Bay. Every time "MAN" thinks he has it all figured out, this living entity we call Earth, reminds how insignificant we really are.
(Sorry for going Zen on ya) :)

CARRIBEAN NARRATIVE (#23)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:17PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRRS*)


They update around 18:30 +/- UTC or 2:30 pm est mon-fri

David.. (#24)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:29PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXT*)


I agree. That's the 2nd time those people have been hit by a strong system (except I think that the wind damage was worse with Mitch, I am not sure). Surely, we should be thankful that Keith did not come our way (or anyone's way, for that matter)...but if those people are still walking around in the bay down there when the waters start pouring in, you will hear about more than the 2 deaths we have already heard about.

Dumbing down or what (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 01:49PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


What is this in the Miami flood watch that talks of a 'front' moving from the south...it is not a front. Did they think the term tropical wave, or perhaps disturbance, was too inflamatory or too hard to understand???
???

IHS,

Bill

Bill...Read This: (#26)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:09PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQYT*)


This is from the TWO from the NHC...it clearly shows that the rain in Miami is from a low pressure area..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS WEATHER SPREADS NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

To cut the NWS some slack, maybe it was a typo.


lookin better (#27)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:23PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


ever since yesterday morning when keith peaked the tropics have been winding down. i dont think joyce will come back around, and if it does itll probably splatter into central america. im starting to think keith will dissipate.. the storm should be inconsequentially weak by tomorrow.. just a lot of rain for the yucatan. keith is weakening so fast that i doubt the storm will survive getting its feet fully dry. the convection around central cuba/cayman islands is pretty vigorous, but there isnt any organization to it as of yet. it doesnt really have much of a window to develop.. as it moves northward it will encounter a pretty huge patch of subsidence behind the frontal trough hanging from that east coast low. westerly shear, too. by late wednesday we should be flat out of storms to track..
well, tell me what yall think. later folks.



cuba disturbance (#28)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:27PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


well.. they ARE supposedly flying a recon on it tomorrow. maybe ill turn out wrong. still doubt anything will come of it. remnants of joyce get a plane tour tomorrow, too. hmm, they have more faith than i do.

NWS, et al. (#29)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 02:34PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


The word "front" was in the NWS flood watch notice out of MIA at least twice. Go figger.

RE: Recons...the recons for Joyce were scheduled before it dissipated.

Agree that Keith is likely to wind down, maybe the energy will be absorbed into the 'new' system trying to develop, maybe Joyce's too.

Actually, I think all the systems will fizz, with the posible exception of Keith...time wil tell. If it begins moving N, this afternoon, it may hang on.

IHS,

Bill

Actually..... (#30)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:41PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQWX*)


I would like to see some snow this year. Think I will move in with my in-laws up in Chicago for the winter...

nah.

Colleen... (#31)
Posted by: David
Posted On 02:47PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


Snow is scheduled for the Lakeland/Orlando area December 24th. hehehe :)

Front (#32)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 02:51PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)


There has been a stalled out FRONT over Southern FLA for the past few days. This FRONT is now beginning to move to the North and is pulling moisture up with it. In simple terms this is a cold FRONT turned warm FRONT.

Quite a concept, huh????

Thanks Santa Claus!!! (#33)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:51PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPW*)


Wow...are you good!!!!! Ask, and you shall receive...

plus, I won't have to go to chicago.

Now, can you tell me if diamonds are in the bag Santa's bringing?

Bill...notice how the NWS Discussions all mention "tropical low" "low pressure" blahblah except for Miami...they still say "front"...maybe it's something I don't understand...and they are right. Who knows? I am not afraid to say I am wrong.

Kevin (#34)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:54PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPW*)


Thanks for the explanation. But there is also moisture coming up from Cuba that has to do with a tropical low pressure area that is also helping bring the moisture up.

Joyce lives at least in the Dvorak World (#35)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:07PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRRS*)


TPNT KGWC 021825

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE

B. 02/1715Z (121)

C. 12.3N/6

D. 67.7W/0

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5 25HRS -02/1715Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .40 DEGREES FROM

THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS ANALYSIS. MET YIELDED

A T2.0.



KRAMER




Cuba (#36)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:00PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQVT*)


There has been an area really catching my eye south of Cuba.This will be intresting to see what forms out of it.Also will have to watch whats left of Joyce........ Joe

Cuba (#37)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:06PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQVT*)


There is tons of rain over South Florida right now this extends all the way to just south of Cuba.I think something may try forming.Heads up Central Florida tomorrow looks like there could be lots of rain moving up from the South.

The Cuban Stuff (#38)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 07:07PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNWW*)


Well let me give it a shot. A cool front actually did push through Florida last week and it stalled out across south Florida. We had a few pleasant days with lower humidity but not much change in temperature. Friday the front started to slide back to the north, but a non-tropical low developed just north of the northern Bahamas and this low moved north offshore over the weekend. I had expected that Friday night into Saturday were going to rather wet around here, but the Bahamian low, as it pulled out to the north, reinforced the high pressure over the peninsula and kept the stalled front to the south. Now for part two: Keith captured a large vorticity lobe (or maxima) and this concentration of energy rotated around the eastern flank of the hurricane and it is now heading northbound just south of Cuba. This mass of energy, now caught in the southerly flow, is beginning to over-ride the old frontal zone and is creating quite a bit of rainfall in south Florida and points southward. We've even had a few healthy tropical showers up here in Melbourne in the past few hours. Although chances for any significant development are probably small, this is the area that NHC felt that some development was possible. Even if a Depression does not form, the mass of clouds will be forced north northwestward and the southern two-thirds of the peninsula are likely to get a good soaking over the next couple of days. Hope that this helps.

While I'm at it, you guys and gals come up with some terrific links for data and data analysis - very much appreciated!
Cheers,
ED


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