|HOUSE PRICE ARMAGEDDON|
|HOUSE PRICES IN BRITAIN|
WILL CRASH BY 70% IN 2005
|TOTAL ECONOMIC DEVASTATION|
|Britain is heading for total economic collapse in 2005|
|A full-scale Japanese-style recession and deflation starting in 2005 that will last ten years|
|NEW LABOUR'S SMOKE AND MIRRORS ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY|
|PRE-ELECTION BOOM FOLLOWED BY POST-ELECTION BUST|
|SEVEN YEARS OF FEAST FOLLOWED BY SEVEN YEARS OF FAMINE|
|LIVE NOW, PAY LATER|
|IF IT'S NOT HURTING IT'S NOT WORKING|
|THE DEVIL TAKES THE HINDMOST|
|MORE STOP GO, BOOM BUST|
Economic meltdown and house price crash to occur after the next General Election in May 2005.
A Sterling crisis in which the currency, the Pound, suffers a dramatic fall in value on the financial markets as a consequence of the boom, will lead to rising inflation and cause the boom to come to an end, resulting in a devastating recession.
There are those with a vested interest in high house prices who say that high house prices are justified as a result of a structural adjustment to an era of low unemployment, low interest rates and low inflation but this is just an excuse since high house prices is a result of years of cumulative price increases and speculation as a consequence of a consumer boom that is clearly out of control. After years of steep rises in house prices there are those who say that house prices will remain flat or stagnate for several years but this is not the way housing booms work because if house prices are not rising then house prices will start falling, house prices either boom or go bust, there is no in-between. Ignore those who say that nobody knows the future direction of house prices because the steep rises in house prices in recent years means that house prices are now tettering on the edge of collapse and it is now an absolute certainty that there will be a massive house price crash at some point in the near future. High house prices is just "funny money" and the gains made due to the rise in house prices is just a "paper profit" until the property is actually sold. As the boom progresses more and more people will get caught up and swept along with it and will become dependent on the boom and will adjust to it and see it as normal only to find themselves suffering the same fate as the boom when they get dragged down with the boom as it finally crumbles and falls into the abyss. Those people whose fate is associated with the boom will try to fight against its demise and being dragged down with it but fighting against it will only make the suffering worse. People will just have to accept their fate and give in and succumb to being destroyed and endure the same fate as the boom for resistance against being destroyed is futile and will only make the suffering worse. The destruction and decimation of businesses and industries and the people that took advantage of the boom is a necessary process in order to remove from the economy those businesses and people that are superfluous and hindering the next recovery so that a new beginning can take place.
Whenever a boom develops it is asking for trouble and places the economy in peril where it can topple over at anytime and it is at the mercy of the financial markets to keep the boom going. A boom sows the seeds of its own demise, in that if the boom is not expanding it will collapse and a point will be reached when the boom is so big that is just cannot get any bigger. Because booms last a long time it gives the misleading impression that the economy is stable but in actual fact the economy is unstable because it will ultimately flip into a long recession. When finally the financial markets have had enough and are no longer willing to finance the boom then the economy will be brought down as if the boom was some kind of ghastly mistake, the wrong kind of boom, and all trace of it needs to be erased and start all over again from scratch. When the economy is being brought down you know that the economy is being prepared so that another boom can take place. The Government and the Bank of England are lulling people into a false sense of security which is encouraging people to borrow too much. People do not realise that when the economy starts to overheat as a result of too much borrowing the Government will pull the plug on the economy and let it collapse to a lower gearing. It will be the Devil takes the hindmost as people are left high and dry in debt struggling to survive in an economy that is in total free-fall. Inflation rises when there is too much money in the economy and in order to bring down inflation the Government will have to squeeze money out of the economy. A classic indication of the money supply in the economy is house prices. When house prices are high this indicates that the quantity of money in the economy is high which is inflationary. To bring down inflation will require a contraction of the money supply and house prices will fall to reflect the reduction in demand as a result of the contraction of the economy. Britain at present has a two speed economy, a consumer and housing boom, and a struggling manufacturing sector. Some say that two speeds is better than no speed at all, but a two speed economy is unsustainable in the long term and no speed would have been better after all. During a boom everything looks bright and rosy but one day everything changes and its all doom and gloom as the realisation sinks in that what was bright and rosy was just a sham, an illusion, a fantasy, and it will all have to be painfully unwound to end in harsh reality. During a boom the economy appears to be doing well but this is deceptive because it is all being done on an inflationary basis and when the inflationary consequences appear then the economy will have to be brought down to normal. In Britain booms tend to last a long time, about seven years, and end up being very big, and the subsequent recessions are long and deep. One way to examine a boom is based on pure logic. Logically a boom should not exist at all because it is simply not real, it is phoney, artificial, a fantasy, an illusion based on false expectations and borrowed money rather than on money that is earned, an investment and speculative bubble just waiting to burst. A boom is just a means by which the financial institutions can make loads of money and by which Governments can stay in power by stoking a boom prior to an election. When the financial institutions can no longer profit from the boom, the value of Sterling will depreciate sharply causing the boom to collapse and the economy will return to normal. All those years in which the boom developed will turn out to be a complete waste of time and the boom will turn to dust and disappear as though it had never existed. You can tell that Britain is heading for a massive recession because of the size and duration of the boom. The next recession will be far worse than the last recession resulting in an economic desert or wasteland. Every generation has to learn the consequences of greed. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon and it will be rising inflation that will cause the boom to come to an end and the economy will go off the edge of a cliff and fall into oblivion.
When banks lend too much it increases the money supply in the economy which is inflationary. Too much lending has the same effect as if the Bank of England flooded the economy with money. The increase in the money supply will reduce the purchasing power of money and lead to rising prices, inflation. Too much money in the economy will cause money itself to lose its value and money will just end up being worthless. To restore the purchasing power of money, and so reduce inflation, the quantity of money in the economy will have to be reduced which means a recession. A boom is when the money supply increases and a recession is when the money supply decreases. The greater the monetary expansion, the more severe will be the required monetary contraction. A country with an open economy makes it more vulnerable to exploitation by the financial markets leading to boom followed by bust. What goes around comes around in a never ending merry-go-round, a boom regardless of how big it is or how long it lasts will eventually disappear and the economy will go back to where it was prior to the boom. In the 1950s and 1960s the popular complaint was that there was too much 'stop-go'. Back then Governments thought that recessions were a thing of the past and that inflation was dead, only to find that neither was the case.
Some people may be deceived into thinking that a boom is a sign of economic success but in reality it is a sign of impending economic doom. An economy is driven to destruction by stoking a boom. The more the economy is pumped with cheap money and pushed to higher levels of activity the more certain that it will end in a hard-landing. A boom is temporary, no matter how long it lasts, a smoke and mirrors illusion, an inflationary bubble that will ultimately burst. A boom generates false and artificial demand based on borrowed money and the funny money of rising house prices rather than real money that is earned through real demand. Reality is harsh and cruel and a boom is just a fantasy, an illusion that will end in harsh reality. A boom creates imbalances and distortions in the economy that are unsustainable which ultimately have to be resolved by bringing the boom to an end. A boom is not the normal state at which an economy operates and keeping the boom going will only make the subsequent correction worse. You can only get an economy moving by increasing the money supply which is inflationary. Ultimately the increase in the money supply will have to be removed from the economy to reduce inflation. The bigger the expansion of the money supply the more severe will be the required contraction of the money supply to bring down inflation. After a boom has developed a recession will be necessary to unwind the entire boom so as to squeeze every last drop of inflation built up during the preceding boom. A boom cannot be brought down by a quarter or half way since there will still remain some inflation from the previous boom and until all the inflation of the preceding boom has been completely removed so that no trace of the previous boom remains and the slate is completely wiped clean only then can a recovery in the form of another inflationary boom then begin. Continually stoking a boom causes the economy to overheat and ultimately experience total meltdown and collapse. Running an economy at a high gearing is like running a piece of machinery above it limits to get the most out of it but in the long run it overheats and breaks down. The best way to destroy a country is to create a massive boom. The Bank of England has created a massive boom which they keep proding in the vain hope that it will not end in an almighty crash. The boom has now become a Frankenstein monster that is completely out of control and can only end in disaster. A boom places the country in economic peril and at the mercy of the financial institutions to keep the boom going but eventually they will pull the plug on the economy, causing it to collapse. Rising inflation threatens an economy like spreading cancer threatens a person and has to undergo painful treatment to save them. A country that has lived on a big spending and borrowing binge will ultimately have to take strong treatment to cure the inflationary consequences. As soon as a boom develops you are sure that a recession will follow to bring the economy back down to normal. Financial institutions will create a boom for profit and will stoke the boom so that it gets bigger and bigger until a time comes when the boom is so big that it cannot get any bigger at which point no more money can be made from the boom and the country will be abandoned by the financial institutions causing the boom to collapse until no trace of the boom is left, leaving the country dead and ready for the next boom to take place.
The ratio of house prices to average incomes, which in the past has never let us down as a warning indicator, is as high as, or even higher than, before the previous crash. The history of markets is that, like a piece of stretched elastic, they eventually snap back and hurt the unwary. Housing booms in Britain have never ended without economic pain. In the Eighties house prices needed to fall by 26 per cent to line up with historic trends. In the end they actually dropped by 37 per cent. If this level of over-correction were repeated during this cycle, prices would fall by 44 per cent. The history of markets teaches us that when someone says "new paradigm" or "it's going to be different this time" then you should get worried. The property market is like a Pyramid selling scheme based on greed and speculation where people are piling in for fear of missing out on the boom. Lenders talk of a 'gradual slowdown' in the housing market but this has never happened in the UK.
New Labour were elected in 1997 just as the economy was entering the boom phase of the boom bust cycle that began in 1996. Since the boom started in 1996 it means that the boom has now lasted for eight years now. If the boom continues until the end of 2005 then the boom will have lasted for nine to ten years, which is an incredibly long time. The longer a boom continues the more severe will be the subsequent recession required to rollback the boom. A ten year long boom will be followed by a eight year long recession required to unwind the boom, which will then be followed by two to three years of stagnation before another boom will develop. Therefore it looks as if Britain is heading for a ten year long slump, a full-scale Japanese-style recession.
Economists predicting a property crash
Signs of a Housing Crash
Capitalist economies do not operate in a steady and continuous way but go through a series of booms and slumps, economic expansions and contractions. Booms always go bust, the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. The boom and bust cycle is capitalism's cul-de-sac. The cycle of boom and bust is a fundamental characteristic of unfettered, unrestrained free market capitalism. The cycle is a problem that Governments have tried to end but failed. The boom and bust cycle is Capitalism's Summer and Winter. The boom bust cycle is something that appears to be deeply-rooted within the free market capitalist system, but people put up with it in order to enjoy the fruits of a ruthlessly efficient capitalist system. To prevent a free market Capitalist system from destroying itself will require some form of massive government intervention. Over-production, over-investment and too much borrowing are the root cause of boom and bust. When a boom develops new businesses and industries start up and expand to take advantage of the boom and when the boom goes bust the excess capacity will no longer be required and it will have to be set aside or destroyed. All excess borrowing binges are followed by an enormous hangover. When a Capitalist economy is doing well it is in fact doing badly, and when it is doing badly, it is actually doing well. There are always people that believe the latest boom will last forever, and claim that the economy has entered a "new paradigm" only to feel foolish when the bubble bursts. A boom is no more than a speculative bubble that will ultimately burst. A boom is always founded on an inflationary basis and at some point the boom will need to be brought to an end and the economy brought down to normal. The bust or recession occurs to unwind completely the inflationary excess of the previous boom. A boom is an inflationary bubble that will ultimately burst with devastating consequencies. A boom is a like shining a bright light on something which makes everything look bright and rosy and obscures reality. Once the bright light of a boom disappears then things will be seen for what they really are. A boom is artificial, temporary, an anomally, and not the normal state at which the economy operates. Once a boom comes to an end the economy goes of the edge of a cliff and collapses. Attempts to run an economy at a higher gearing will end in economic disaster. What allows a boom to get bigger and bigger is excessive borrowing at a time of low inflation, but inflationary pressures are building up and ultimately there will come a point when the financial markets are no longer willing to keep the boom going and sell the pound, causing the pound to lose value, leading to rising inflation. When inflation does start to rise the boom has to be brought to an end and the economy is brought down ruthlessly and without mercy in order to bring down inflation. As soon as a boom develops you know that at some point you will have to fight your way through a recession. As a boom gets bigger and bigger your future career prospects will get worse and worse.
What causes house prices to fall is when the boom goes bust. The severity of the recession will be such that it brings house prices back down to normal. The boom creates imbalances in the economy and leads to a massive trade deficit and balance of payments deficit. These imbalances can only be maintained by the demand for Sterling created on the financial markets to exploit the boom. A boom is like the Soviet Empire in that it can only survive by getting bigger, and when the boom stops growing then a point is reached where no more money can be made from the boom and demand for Sterling collapses and this fall in the value of Sterling will expose the true inflationary nature of the boom. Rising inflation undermines the entire financial system of the country and when inflation does start to rise the Government and Central Bank will stop at nothing, absolutely nothing, to bring inflation under control, which will involve shutting down the whole economy, throwing people out of work, and closing down businesses which will be done without pity or mercy and with absolute ruthlessness. It is very easy to create a boom because this just involves encouraging people to borrow money and to expand businesses, but when the boom has to be brought to an end this will involve having to bring down the economy with absolute barbarity, savagery, ruthlessness and brutality to squeeze every last drop of inflation out of the economy. The effect of rising inflation on an economy can be viewed as a spreading cancer threatening the life of a person, in that rising inflation jeopardises the financial basis of a country and if inflation is not controlled then the economy shall perish. The cure to inflation will involve the closure of entire businesses and economic collapse, much like the severe treatment of cutting huge lumps out of a person with cancer that will almost kill the person which is necessary so that the person can survive. When the boom goes bust the economy will be yanked down quickly and aggressively in a desperate fight for economic survival to control rising inflation. The economy will contract and shrink in size and economic activity will drain away and decline as money is squeezed out of the economy to reduce inflation. In a recession the economy goes into reverse as the boom unwinds until the economy ends up in worse state than before the boom had started. As the boom unwinds the economy peels away from its previous high and falls into decline. It will feel as if the life of the economy is ebbing or draining away, getting ever more weaker and weaker. There is always a terrible price to be paid for a life of greed, excess and utmost depravity and that is a severe recession. God punishes those who lead a wicked life and they shall experience a humiliating and painful torment. The inflationary consequencies of a boom only starts to appear when the flows of "hot money" into the country to exploit the boom disappear causing demand for Sterling to fall which will result in a fall in the value of the currency on the financial markets (a run on the pound or Sterling crisis) that is a consequence of the large quantity of money in circulation in the economy as a result of the boom. When the inflationary consequences of a boom start to appear then the Government or central bank is forced to bring the boom to an end by ceasing to issue credit to the lending institutions and reducing the money supply in the economy. Inflation can only be reduced by restoring the value of the Pound and this can only be done by making money scarce by reducing the quantity of money in the economy which the Government does by creating a recession. The British economy is very cyclically extreme and unstable, lurching from one extreme to another in that the economy experiences a big boom followed by a long and deep recession. The economic cycle has been getting more extreme in that the booms have been getting bigger and the recessions have been getting worse. Booms always turn out to be eronious and temporary, no matter how long they last. A boom is a tremendously destructive force that in its wake following its collapse will leave many businesses wrecked and destroyed and an economy in ruins. The aftermath of an economy that has experienced a large boom is a scene of total economic devastation. Once a recession is over following a large boom, you will be left wondering what the boom was all about. A boom is just a means by which the rich can get richer. It is only through the ups and downs of the economy that the rich can make money. You don't have to be an economist to know when something is wrong with an economy, since you know intuitively that when house prices are high and people are borrowing and spending too much that there is something wrong. The best way to screw up the economy is by creating a big boom which will require a painful correction to bring the economy back to normal.
Government's that are bankrupt of any original ideas as to how to revive the economy resort to the cheap and dirty tactic of creating consumer and housing booms. Governments implement quick-fixes in the short-term rather than taking the long-term view. If Government's did think in the long-term they would never allow a boom to develop, but a boom suits a Government's purpose particularly when it coincides with a runup to a General Election. Government's tend to create pre-election booms by loosening the monetary taps prior to an election and then find themselves having to squeeze the monetary expansion at some point after the election when inflation takes off. The British economy is clearly "overheating" because of the rampant consumer consumption that is being stimulated by low interest rates and high house prices. Some commentators are suggesting that somehow this boom is different from previous booms that went bust and that it will be different this time. Note that when a Prime Minister describes the Chancellor of the Exchequer as "brilliant" you know that you are in deep trouble. When the British economy is doing well it is a clear indication that you should close down your business, sell your home and get ready to emigrate.
Britain will experience an economic apocalypse next year 2005 as the economy undergoes a fundamental and dramatic phase transition in the Trade Cycle from boom to bust. The impending economic annihilation is necessary in order to purge the economy from the excesses and distortions of the preceeding boom. The economy will literally go off the edge of a cliff and enter into a sharp descent . The boom will quickly unravel and go into reverse and in doing so many businesses will go bankrupt and be destroyed and many people will be thrown out of work.
Some economists say that a crash in property prices won't occur because interest rates are not likely to rise sharply and because unemployment will remain low. Economists who say these things are being deceitful because they know full well that a property crash occurs when the Government starts contracting the money supply, which is recession. When inflation starts to rise as a consequence of a long boom the Government is forced to contract the money supply to control rising inflation. Contracting the money supply means taking money out of the economy which will make the economy shrink and get weaker and weaker, making the economy poorer, which will lead to reduced demand, business closures and rising unemployment. The Government will have no choice but to contract the economy in order to reduce rising inflation. It is the recession that occurs as the result of a contraction of the economy and the associated reduction in consumer demand that causes a property crash. When the Government does contract the money supply it will feel as if the economy is being yanked down aggressively in a desperate attempt to bring the economy back down to normal as quickly as possible before rising inflation takes hold and destroys the very financial existence of the country. The measures required to control rising inflation are draconian and barbaric because it will involve creating poverty in order to make money in the economy more scarce in order to keep a lid on rising inflation. When the economy is being brought down, the very economic life of the country will ebb away and the economy will get weaker and weaker.
The Bank of England are always saying that inflation is low and this helps to justify the boom but this is clearly a nonsense because there has been a massive inflationary increase in the money supply which clearly is inflationary despite what the fiddled inflation figures put out by the Bank of England suggest. The Bank of England know fully well that the current boom is inflationary because booms always turn out to be inflationary and this has happened so many times before. The Bank of England know fully well that the true inflationary pressures of a massive increase in the money supply will not appear until there is a fall in the value of the Pound that reflects the high quantity of money in the economy. The inflation figures are bogus and the Bank of England know this. When the boom does go bust and the economy collapses the reason the Bank of England will give for bringing down the economy will be because of rising inflation.
The Children of the Future
The children of the future shall not be denied their rightful existence in the future by the greed and corruption of those who are in existence today. The presence of the people who are greedy and corrupt are creating social exclusion and preventing future generations from participating in the economy. These people must step aside so that the future belongs to the children of the future.
The current boom that has taken seven long years to construct is degenerate and corrupt and as such must be completely destroyed. The boom will need to be completely unwound and totally eliminated until no trace of the boom is left and all the work that has been done to build up the boom is in vain and will turn to dust. Severe treatment will be required to cure the nation of the corruption that prevails today. It will only be through the application of ruthless action can the corruption of today be purged and erased in preparation for a better future, a new beginning for the children of the future who are free from the taint of today's corruption.
Immorality, depravity, greed and corruption is the basis of the current boom. The corruption and depravity of the people living today has no place in the future that will come when all taint of today's corrupt and hideous boom has been erased. The destruction and demise of the current boom shall take with it those who profited from the boom. The new beginning that shall arise from the destruction of the current boom will not be tainted in any way by depravity and corruption of the people today. Those people whose fate is associated with the boom will try to fight against being dragged down with the demise of the boom but fighting against it will be in vain and people will just have to accept their fate and give in and succumb to being destroyed.
The destruction and decimation of businesses and industries that shall take place is a necessary process in order to remove from the economy that which is hindering a new beginning from taking place. From the ashes of the current boom shall emerge a new beginning, free of those who are depraved, greedy and corrupt, a new dawn and a better life for the children of the future who are not tainted by today's corruption. It is only through the demise of the current boom so that it is no more but a distant memory can a better and more just beginning take place for the children of the future. From the ashes of today's corruption will arise a new dawn, a better nation so that the children of the future can take their rightful place in the future that belongs totally to them.
|TOTAL ECONOMIC DEVASTATION|
Rising bankruptcies, insolvencies,
rising unemployment, suicide rate,
divorce rate, repossessions.
|THE ECONOMY WILL BE IN RUINS|
|THE FUTURE WILL BE A LIVING HELL|
There will be endless misery and despair
as houses plummet in value, businesses
close and people are thrown out of work.
PEOPLE WILL THINK THAT THE
END OF THE WORLD HAS ARRIVED
|THE DEVIL WILL TAKE THE HINDMOST|
|TOTAL ECONOMIC ANNIHILATION|
|THE DAY OF RECKONING IS NEAR|
|PREPARE FOR THE APOCALYPSE|
|THE APOCALYPSE WILL COME LIKE A BOLT FROM THE BLUE AND WILL CATCH EVERYONE BY SURPRISE|
|SELL YOUR BUSINESS, HOME AND CAR NOW|
BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE
|WHEN THE APOCALYPSE ARRIVES PEOPLE WILL LONG FOR THE GREAT RELEASE THAT DEATH WILL BRING|
|NO JOB, NO HOME, NO FUTURE|
THE FUTURE IN 2009 AD
In the year 2009 AD Britain will be experiencing a terrible recession that will leave the economy completely devastated and in ruins. The economy will have shutdown and be at a complete standstill. Consumer confidence will have disappeared causing massive consumer retrenchment, people will be afraid to spend money, the streets will be deserted, shopping centres empty, little traffic on the streets, many businesses will have gone bankrupt, factories closed and many people made redundant resulting in mass unemployment. House prices will have collapsed leaving some ordinary working class people in negative equity by as much as £200,000. Many people will struggle to cope with servicing their debts in the face of an economy that has collapsed and many will not manage to keep up their mortgage payments and will have their homes repossessed. People will be terrified about losing their jobs and will be wary of the future. There will come over an eerie feeling of impending doom and gloom about the economy with no prospect of an end in sight. People will be wandering around, dazed and confused, not knowing when the misery will end. The recession will be the worst in living memory and it will be so severe that it will make some people compare it to the Great Depression.
HELL ON EARTH
The prosperity that prevails in Britain today is just a smoke and mirrors illusion based on excessive borrowing and high house prices. The prosperity is being achieved through a massive increase in the money supply, which is inflationary, and achieving prosperty by increasing the money supply is a form of cheating, and there will be a terrible price to be paid for cheating prosperity, and that will be a devastating recession.
The economy will go into recession next year 2005 and the recession will be much worse than the last recession and will leave the economy devastated for ten years. The cause of the recession next year is a Sterling Crisis, a run on the Pound, in which the Pound suffers a dramatic fall in value on the foreign exchange markets because of a dramatic loss of confidence by the financial markets in the state of the British economy due to the economic imbalances and the massive quantity of money in circulation as a consequence of too much borrowing and spending and high house prices. The fall in the value of the Pound will cause inflation to rise which if left unchecked will destroy the financial basis of the country. The Government will be forced to restore the value of the Pound on the financial markets in a desperate bid to control rising inflation and the only way to restore the value of the currency is by contracting the money supply, taking money out of the economy, making money scarce, which is a recession.
All trace of the current boom that has taken seven long years to build up will have to be unwound and erased until no trace of the boom remains. The recession will cause a rise in bankruptcies, factory closures, mass unemployment, repossessions. There will be much sorrow, misery and despair as the economy falls into the abyss and ends in ruins. The future will be a living Hell.
HELL IS A PLACE OF ETERNAL TORMENT
Hell is where the wicked will be sent to endure a painful and humiliating torment and suffer Hellfire for eternity. Hell is a place of eternal damnation, an everlasting lake of fire, a fire that shall never be quenched. In Hell there is much screaming, moaning, weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth, a place of torment, an everlasting punishment for the sins committed in life. There are demons at work, torturing condemned souls, mutilating them, skinning them alive, pouring molten lead down the throats of the damned. The air is thick with the awful stench of burning souls. In Hell souls will burn forever. Those in Hell will endure terrible pain and will scream "why don't I die?" "when will this pain stop?" but they know that it will never stop for Hell is a place of no rest and the suffering will last forever.
TERRIBLE PAIN AND SUFFERING