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Florida looking greatby kos
Fri Oct 29th, 2004 at 03:28:43 GMT
All the pieces are coming together.
According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.Part of the credit has to go to the New Democrat Network, which has aggressively targetted not just Latinos in Miami-Dade, but also the previously untouchable Cuban-American community.
A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state [...]
Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry.
Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.
And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.
Check it out -- my Guanaco peeps are going to be ringing it up for Kerry!
And speaking of NDN, this is the best ad ever. Thanks to NDN, Latinos have gotten better commercials this election cycle than any of the rest of the country. (My other favorite, check out the ad titled "Two Jobs.)
Ohio new voter registrations looking gooood...by kos
Fri Oct 29th, 2004 at 02:53:45 GMT
We've got 'em registered.
It turns out that well over half of new voters registered in Ohio at last count - about 475,000 of about 830,000 - hail from just eight urban counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, Summit, Lucas, Lorain and Stark. They make up nearly 6 percent of the entire 7.8 million-plus statewide electorate, at a time when the latest polls show President Bush and Democrat John Kerry running neck-and-neck.Now we've got to get them to the polls.
New registrations are still being counted, and everyone cautions that votes - not registrations - will decide the election. But signs of a heavy surge of new urban voters could add up to immense pull for Democrat-leaning central cities on Election Day [...]
Republicans maintain that new registrations in growing Republican counties will blunt the impact of new urban voters. But among the urban counties thick with new voters, all but two swung to Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election. Stark and Hamilton counties both went to President Bush in that race, but Democrats in both say the vast majority of new registrations there have been in Democrat-leaning urban precincts.
Handicapping Coloradoby Tom Schaller
Fri Oct 29th, 2004 at 00:43:29 GMT
Looking at quadrennial changes in certified voter registration totals in Colorado gives me pause. Unlike some of the other analyses I have done here on DKos (i.e., for FL, IA, MI, NH), the trend has either been a slight boost in the two-party share of Democratic registrants, or a rise in independents, or both.
In Colorado, neither is the case. That may bode well for party resurgence, and I'm all for that. But, to summarize the data, in 2000 the final registration totals showed 35.4% Republican registrants; 29.9% Democrats; and the remaining 34.6% (with rounding) either third-party or independent. Four years later, the movement is slightly Republican: 36.4%-GOP; 30.6%-DEM; 33.1% other.
Yes, what county-level registration gains the Dems have made have come mostly in the bigger, more densely-populated counties that should thusly be more efficiently mobilized (Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Jefferson & Larimer). Still, the two-party statewide share of all registrants has nudged ever-so-slightly Republican: from 54.2% statewide in 2000, to 54.3% now. What's most curious to me is that independents and others have not gained relatively, as is happening elsewhere.
So, cutting to the chase: Can Kerry get it done in CO?
I'm fully aware of the hopeful notion of a "reverse coattails" effect from Ken Salazar's senate campaign on Kerry's candidacy; no doubt Mr. Salazar will draw new voters, especially Latinos, to the polls. But will this effect, coupled with resources from Kerry and Dems that Gore did not invest four years ago, be enough to swamp registration stagnation that provides little reason to suspect Kerry can erase Gore's 8.4% margin of defeat in 2000? I'm not too confident, although I've been wrong before and hope I am again. (Keep in mind: "Colorado" is a butchered, Anglicized derivative of the Spanish "color rojo" -- a "red color" reference to the state's famed red rocks...and thus hard to make blue?)
And so, based on my game theory training from grad school days (courtesy of Mike Munger and Emerson Niou, thanks!), my strategic recommendation to Colorado Kerry supporters is to vote Kerry and vote "aye" on the proportional-electors ballot initiative. If it passes and Kerry wins, it will cost him four electors. But if Kerry loses, as is my hunch, ballot passage still guarantees the senator four more electors than Gore won in 2000. (At least, that is, until Brett Kavanaugh and the Federalist Society goons get involved.)
P.S.: The final, 2004 registration data are here:
Voter suppression timeby kos
Fri Oct 29th, 2004 at 00:18:53 GMT
Seriously, the GOP must keep voters away from the polls in order to have any chance to win.
This flyer is being distributed around Milwaukee's African American communities.
GOTV Threadby kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 23:41:47 GMT
Zogby has been going around telling anyone who'll listen that this is Kerry's election. I had friends at the Daily Show taping today, and Zogby was on. To great cheers in the studio audience, Zogby declared Kerry the winner.
But no one wins without GOTV. So let's seal the deal with lots of G. O. T. V.
Without Arafat, Whither Palestine?by Meteor Blades
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 23:07:00 GMT
While some sources, including The Guardian, are writing what is tantamount to obituaries for Yasser Arafat, it is unclear precisely what ailment he is suffering, and whatever else may be said of the man, he has few peers as a survivor. It is nonetheless obvious that his condition is exceedingly serious since he will be flying out of internal exile in Ramallah Friday morning to be treated in France.
As expected, some in the Blogswamp eagerly await the old man’s demise, the only demurrer being that they hope he goes painfully. (Warning: I have asbestos stomach lining, and unless you do, you might think twice about visiting the above-linked site.)
The passing of old chiefs is supposed to be a time of renewal, redirection, rethinking. And, if we cast the best light on matters, this might come to pass when Arafat passes from the scene. But unlikely. His death will be no blessing for Palestinians - or whoever occupies the Oval Office come January. As Haaretz notes, a battle – or even a civil war – is not impossible, because Arafat has never appointed a successor or loosened the reins enough to establish a truly democratic process within the Palestinian Authority.
I've been told that nothing will start a fistfight at a leftwing sockhop quicker than mentioning Israel and Palestine. But the unwillingness of some people to engage in straight talk is how we wound up in Iraq. So, kindle the flamethrowers.
I am no fan of Arafat. Among the naïve, he has always been able to disguise his real behavior behind well-shaped public perception and public actions, all the while saying, as became almost a cliché, one thing in English and one thing in Arabic. Authoritarian, greedy, murderous, corrupt and incompetent, he has been a plague on his people. The tactics of terror that he condoned, supported, funded and at least sometimes planned have been corrosive of any sympathy engendered by the Palestinians' dispossession.
Misc :: There's more... (165 comments, 988 words in story)
100,000 in Madisonby kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 23:01:49 GMT
Blogger Althouse has her own pictures from the event. Best picture? The Republicans in the crowd. They were allowed in. No one demanded loyalty oaths from them. Like those demanded by, you know, someone else.
DNC heads into Arkansas, both barrels blazin'by kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 22:37:35 GMT
Arkansas is back in play.
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, just held a conference call with Arkansas media to announce a $250,000 television ad buy for Arkansas.In the state's four public polls in October, SUSA has twice given Bush over 51 percent, but Zogby and another outfit had much tighter numbers, with Bush at 46 and 48 percent.
Starting tonight, and continuing through Election Day, the ads will run on stations in Little Rock, Ft. Smith, and Jonesboro.
McAuliffe said that the commitment, which is their largest in any Southern state besides Florida, was motivated by their own internal tracking polls, which show the presidential race is a dead heat in Arkansas.
"The state is switching from red to blue," McAuliffe said. "We would not be spending a quarter of a million dollars there if it did not show that we could win."
Embeds bite Bush in the assby kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 21:59:17 GMT
Oops. Looks like those embeds with the 101st in Iraq got pictures of the very same high explosives that later went missing. All of it captured on tape by the Minneapolis/St. Paul ABC affiliate.
The explosives were there. Now they're in the hands of terrorists.
Thanks Don. Thanks George. You're getting our people killed.
Update: You want IAEA seals? Well, KSTP has IAEA seals.
This is it folks. Conclusive proof. Case closed.
Time for Bush to explain how his war planning gifted terrorists with (at least) 760,000 pounds of high explosives to use against our troops and god knows who else.
Doctored ad has legsby kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 21:12:57 GMT
Congrats to Mithras the Prophet for his diary on Bush's fake "Whatever it takes" ad.
The Kerry campaign has issued a press release directing press to the diary.
In response to the stunning revelation that the Bush-Cheney campaign's much touted closing ad has been exposed as doctored, the Kerry campaign is demanding that this fake ad be taken off the airwaves immediately.The story is CNN, AP has it, etc.
Senior Adviser Joe Lockhart issued the following statement:
"Now we know why this ad is named `Whatever it Takes.' This administration has always had a problem telling the truth from Iraq to jobs to health care. The Bush campaign's advertising has been consistently dishonest in what they say. But today, it's been exposed for being dishonest about what we see.
"If they won't tell the truth in an ad, they won't tell the truth about anything else. This doctored commercial is fundamentally dishonest and insults the intelligence of the American people. The Bush campaign has no choice but to take this ad down immediately and issue an apology for its latest attempt to mislead the American people.
"Unless George Bush has changed its position on human cloning, it's got to pull this fundamentally dishonest ad immediately."
General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (275 comments)
100,000 civilian Iraqi deathsby Tom Schaller
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 19:47:37 GMT
Apparently, we have to bomb Iraq to oblivion in order to save it: an estimated 100,000 deaths thus far. To borrow the incomparable Juan Cole's mathematical slide-rule, that would be the equivalent, in American population terms, of 1.1 million people here.
"Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children," said the report, conducted jointly by researchers at Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University and the Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.
The fully functioning Leftby kos
Thu Oct 28th, 2004 at 18:20:12 GMT
There are some amazing things happening on the ground.
I have spent the past week observing the official Democratic Party and unofficial 527 field operations in the battleground states of Ohio and Florida. And I have found something I've never before seen in my 36 or so years as a progressive activist and later as a journalist: an effective, fully functioning American left.The column concludes with this:
Those liberal organizations that already knew how to do politics -- the AFL-CIO, the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) and a few others -- are doing it better than they have before. Those liberal groups that stayed aloof from elections or phumphered ineffectually are now playing the game like seasoned pros. New organizations have arisen to mobilize sometime voters; the largest of them -- America Coming Together (ACT) -- will have 12,000 staffers in each of the three biggest battleground states (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida) on Election Day.
And most amazingly, all the 527s -- ACT, the AFL-CIO, the LCV, the Sierra Club, the NAACP, Emily's List, MoveOn and 25 others -- are working together under the umbrella of a single coalition, America Votes. They meet together, plan together, divvy up turf, parcel out messages, coordinate their mailing and phone banking.
If John Kerry is elected next Tuesday, the tsunami of volunteer activity within the independent groups will be in large part responsible. Whether this tsunami can be bottled -- whether this coalition will take on a permanent life of its own, become an enduring progressive presence in American politics -- is a question of resources, opportunity, Zeitgeist and even law (the legal status of the 527s may be under attack if Bush wins).The 527s will be under assault regardless who wins. But the question remains -- can we maintain this energy in prusuit of a progressive electoral majority?
Jerome and I are writing a book about this very topic. Over the course of the last year, after observing the work of the party and the third-party groups first-hand, I am more convinced than ever that the national party's heydey is past. The third-party groups (527s, PACs, 501(c)(3)s, big money donors, think tanks, blogs, Air America, and our army of motivated ground soldiers), with their spirit of entrepreneurship, will lead the way to the promised land.