|Bush: 207||Kerry: 185||Undecided: 146|
|Strong: 167||Strong: 160|
|Weak: 40||Weak: 25|
270 out of 538 electoral votes needed to win.
The 2004 Electoral Race
- Maps last updated: November 1, 2004
- Polling data last updated: November 1, 2004
- 1 day remains until the election.
If the election were held today...
If the election were held today we project:
Bush wins the presidency with 289 electoral votes. Kerry places second with 249 electoral votes.
Kerry wins the popular vote with 54,981,871 votes (49.26%). Bush places second with 54,742,833 votes (49.05%).
If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 253 for Kerry, 285 for Bush.
Current polling suggests the amendment is likely to fail.
In addition, poll data suggests that the loser in Maine (currently Bush) is unlikely to pick off an electoral vote.
"Predict the Winning Map" Contest
Do you fancy yourself a political analyst? Think you can make a better projection than my site? Tired of political pundits whose politics you can't stand?
Here's your chance to be an election star. Race2004 is pleased to announce the Race2004 "Predict the Winning Map" Invitational.
The rules are simple: You have between now and November 1st at 11:59pm Eastern to predict the final electoral map after the election. You may work with anyone you want, consult any source you wish, and conduct as much research as you can.
The winner gets a prize (plus fame and fortune), and everyone is eligible to win. I'll even be putting in Race2004's final prediction before the election, as well as my own personal twist. Starting next Monday afternoon I'll be adding predictions from pollsters, media organizations, and other notables.
So put on your thinking cap and start researching. The presidency is waiting for you.
Help Race2004 purchase new polling data.
My husband and I donate the web hosting, design, programming, research, and data entry for this site. We refuse all advertising and are not supported by any group or company. All moneys collected are publicly accounted to site users.
Current goal: $25/day
Current project: To purchase daily passes with the National Journal's The Hotline. The National Journal writes several extremely detailed publications with a subscription cost of and that cost $6000 per year. The Hotline provides access to a large amount of polling and analytical data though and makes for great help in finding new content for this site.
I am open to suggestions on other memberships to purchase that are cheaper than the National Journal.
Thank you: For donating the $130 required to purchase a Zogby membership, $49 for Rasmussen, and $120 for DC's Political Report.
NewsAll past news
- (8:15pm) I am literally falling asleep in my chair, so I'm off to sleep. I'll be back sometime late night / early morning and will continue work on the site then.
- The latest Zogby polling poll data has been updated in PA, OH, FL, WI, MN, MI, IA, NM, CO, and NV.
As near as I can tell, Zogby will release one last set of battleground states poll data tomorrow at 5:30pm Eastern. I'll enter it immediately, as it'll be the last poll data on the site and the last opportunity for our map to flip.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Tennessee has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in South Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Arkansas has Bush and Kerry tied.
Possible Bill Clinton bounce? Survey USA notes that the trend towards Kerry is happening while the Senate race trends GOP, so the changes are probably not statistical noise.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
Survey USA says...
No sense in trying to make sense of Florida. Was tied, is tied... Maybe.
Turnout will decide who gets 27 electoral votes. Absent a clear winner, litigation is sure to follow.
- With less than 24 hours before the polls begin to close, this site is rapidly coming to a close. Assuming we don't wind up in another Florida-style mess, my plan is to update for a few days after the election then gradually turn it into an election poll archive site.
Since development work began on Race2004 six months ago, I estimate my husband and I have spent about a thousand hours working on the site. This includes finding and entering poll data, programming the website, maintaining the web servers, and responding to your many e-mails.
To help pay for running the site and for my efforts, I have asked for donations. Many of you have responded with almost $2,000 in donations. For this I thank you.
For the rest of you, if you have enjoyed this website please consider making a donation.. No amount is too small, and I encourage you to donate at least $1. I would like to run Race2008 in four years, and plan to make it even bigger and better. Earning more than $1 per hour for 1000 hours of effort will go a long way to bringing Race2008 to life.
- The Granite State rolling poll in New Hampshire has been updated. No major changes, but "Nader and others" support drops from 2% to 1%.
- I somehow managed to confuse a USA poll with a Wisconsin poll. Not sure how I did that (last of sleep, perhaps?), but the recent Marist poll in Wisconsin has been properly removed from the listings.
- The final Rasmussen rolling poll data has been updated in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in South Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- All right, folks. I have a job for you.
As the evening goes on, I want you to start looking around the Internet for "official" or "final" projections from media organizations, political groups, pollsters, poll websites like mine, and anything else that looks like fun.
If they have a final state-by-state projection on who will win where, e-mail me with a link to the information. But only send it to me if it's their "final" data for tonight.
I am already aware a number of these, so no need to e-mail me data for: Zogby, Strategic Vision, Rasmussen, ARG, Gallup, Resarch 2000, NBC, ABC, CBS, Electoral-vote.com, The Hotline, or Sam Wang's projection website.
- We are close to understanding how the crucial Hispanic vote will break. While African-Americans are among the most loyal Democratic voters (if not the most loyal), Hispanics are somewhat more flexible. In 2000 the Bush campaign won just 30% of the Hispanic vote and hope to improve that to 40% this year. The Kerry campaign has sought to keep Bush under 35% Latino support in an effort to maintain an advantage in the Southwest.
Well, a Zogby poll for the Miami Herald found that Bush's level of support among Hispanics has risen, but only to 32.8%. That is not what they had hoped, and may represent an opportunity for Kerry in the southwest and Florida.
It is an improvement though. Considering the vast size of the Latino population, their vote will definitely be a critical factor in future elections.
- The election is getting very sleazy in Michigan with a recorded phone message calling voters to remind them to vote for John Kerry to help make gay marriage legal.
John Kerry is, of course, opposed to the legalization of gay marriage. (And much to my husband and my annoyance, mind you. We understand the political realities involved but as a gay couple who has been together for 12 years this is a rather important issue for us).
Anyway, the calls are a sleazy campaign tactic designed to scare away voters from John Kerry. Give the article a read--it's interesting.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in New Jersey has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided. (This saves me the trouble of updating the map--see below story).
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- I made a few corrections on the slew of recent polls. The Ohio and Pennsylvania Gallup polls were completed October 31, not October 30. This flips Ohio to Kerry on the "if the election were held today" scenario and sends back the election to a 269-269 tie. (The country has gone from Bush to Kerry to Bush to undecided today. And it's only 2pm).
I also found the Nader number on the New Jersey Eagleton poll. He scored 2% in the last survey, a number my first source didn't bother to mention (Grrrrrrrr...). The state flips to "weak Kerry". I'll update the map in a few minutes.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- Milestone: Chelsea Clinton gave her first-ever political speech on October 30 at a Kerry rally in Florida.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- "Every election we say it depends on voter turnout. It really does this time. "
-- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), "Face the Nation," 10/31
- A new Ohio Poll poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- FYI, folks. The high voter turnout in some cities may result in lines that are several hours in length. If you will be voting with a voter with physical needs (or even if you just hate standing for that long), you may want to bring along a stool, chair, wheelchair, or other place to sit. And don't forget to pack a lunch. (In colder climates you should also bring peppermint schnapps in a flask).
- Voter turnout in 2000 was about 104 million. Democratic strategy this election season is based on a high voter turn of as many as 115 million, 120 million, or even higher. Does anyone out there know what the Republicans are predicting? Thanks!
- From Rasmussen polling: "At this time, the bin Laden tape does not appear to have had any measurable impact on the race."
- FYI. The first exit polling data will be available at approximately 11am Eastern tomorrow. I will cover it for you (assuming I don't collapse from exhuastion before then).
- To give you an idea about how close this election is and how every possible aspect is being analyzed, the LA Times is writing about a rather specific demographic: married white women who never went to college.
- Mark your calendars, folks. An eight year-old presidential trivia savant will be on Conan O'Brien on November 12th. Neil is the genius behind board game we are giving away in the election contest. (Watch for Neil's electoral prediction later today).
- CNN reported that Rehnquist is not back to work yet at the Supreme Court. It's extrmely doubtful that the Supreme Court can hear an emergency appeal (no time!), but it is worth noting that one of the most conservative justices will not present to hear the case if they do.
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Quinnipiac poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- I have heard a report that the website is getting mysql (read: database) errors like this:
Warning: mysql_pconnect(): Too many connections in /home/race2004/public_html/race2004/index.php on line 7 cannot connect to mysql database 1 - please alert Stephen about this.
Please e-mail me if you receive one like this. I'm tinking with a solution, but am not making it a priority unless a lot of you are getting errors. (Today is an incredibly busy day running this site, and I'm trying to do 10000 things at once).
- Cheney is now enjoying scenic Hawaii.
- Updated: I now know the story. Thanks to everyone that wrote. Here goes...
Ohio has been having a big debate over challengers at polling places. The practice is allowed under state law, but when rumors began that Republicans would perform mass challenges in minority-populated areas, Democrats cried foul and immediately sued in court.
Last week a federal judge issued a restraining order against the presence of challengers during the elections pending a full hearing on the issue. The GOP appealed and the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the injunction.
Not knowing which way the final ruling would go, the Secretary of State announced that he was disallowing challengers at this election sites this year. The state Attorney General (both are Republicans who are running for governor in 2006) announced that it was an illegal order and could not be enforced under state law. And while the Secretary of State's office is reponsible for setting the framework for elections, the Attorney General's office implements them. So the matter was in legal limbo and everyone looked to the courts.
Over the weekend the federal judge heard arguments on the matter. At 1:30am this morning she issued a ruling that the practice of allowing challengers was unconstitutional because it amounted to voter harassment. Republicans immediately said they would appeal.
And that's where are now. The Republicans are appealing to the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals who will presumably issue a ruling later today. Whether or not several thousand Republican challengers will be allowed into urban polling areas resides on the decision.
Drop me an e-mail when you hear the court's ruling. (I'm incredibly busy today with this site and barely have time to think, much less look at the wires).
Update: A second federal judge has ruled against the GOP having challengers in Ohio polling locations. No word from the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals yet.
- Electronic Markets are a good measure of probabilities, in which knowledgeable amateurs and experts buy stock (real or imagined) in products, candidates, or other hypothetical possibilities. Over a period of time they buy and trade stock based on the their perceptions of the possibilities becoming real. Electronic markets have been found to be an excellent predictor of future events.
For example, this is a pricing graph of the Democratic primary process. More interesting, however, is the pricing graph of the Bush/Kerry race in regards to the final popular vote. As of October 31 at 11:59pm, the exchange gives Kerry a 45% probability of winning the popular vote, and Bush at 55% chance. We'll know in a few days how each person does.
- A new Granite State poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead. The 2% for Nader is actually "Nader and others".
- A new Marist College poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A few weeks ago I posted a picture of this awful Cuyahoga County. At the time we weren't sure if it was doctored or not.
Well, one of my readers saw the actual absentee ballot in this county. According to him...
What was misleading about the picture is that the names and the punch-card are two TOTALLY separate items. As it happens, you CAN line up the list of names next to the punch-card, and interestingly enough, Kerry-Edwards winds up next to the proper punch slot. And more amusingly, Bush-Cheney (which I think you were supposed to punch "2" if you wanted to vote for them) winds up next to the 12, by sheer coincidence.
So a "1" was not wiped off the "12." You just simply aren't supposed to hold the two items next to each other. In fact, if you got the absentee package in the mail, it wouldn't even occur to you to do that, because there are many other columns which you need to punch for other races. This was just a coincidence that someone happened to notice.
- Zogby conducted the first ever mobile phone presidential poll using SMS messaging. Kerry is leading Bush 55-40 among 18-29 year-olds with a margin of error of 1.2%.
Because more than 97% of respondants said they planned to vote, this should be considered a likely voter model. The likely voter model in Zogby's conventional poll suggests that the same age group favors Kerry 55-41.
This comparison is important because conventional polling is not allowed to poll via cellphone. Some analysts worried that cell phone-only users might be more likely to vote for one candidate or the other, thereby adding error to the traditional polling process. This poll suggests that is not the case, putting at ease political pollsters, analyists, and campaign managers everywhere.
- One site user in Kentucky ran a little non-scientific poll on Halloween evening. Trick-or-treaters could choose from three candy bowls: Kerry (multi-flaovored Gobstoppers), Bush (Atomic Fireballs), and Nader (Safety Pops).
The results, Kerry 81, Bush 39, Nader 2. So if Kerry wins in an upset in Kentucky, you heard it here first.
- One of Race2004's many "spies" out there says he has seen the Kerry internal poll data for Missouri. He couldn't remember the exact numbers, but says that Kerry campaign believes they are just a single point behind Bush.
- I have corrected the Wisconsin poll numbers for the latest CNN-Gallup-USA Today survey. CNN provided conflicting information in two difference places. One had Kerry winning 52-44, the other had Bush winning 52-44. The USA Today article about the same poll has Bush winning 52-44, so I have adjusted the data to recognize this as the true figure. (I also alerted CNN about their error, but doubt they'll fix it).
- (12:20am). I had incorrect Zogby data posted for about 30 minutes. The correct numbers are now posted.
- I have finished updating the rolling polls from Rasmssen and Zogby. The data is now current as of October 31 (for Zogby) and October 29 (for Rasmussen). This is the most current data available.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in California has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Alabama has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Maryland has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from weak Bush to strong Bush.
- A new Rasmussen poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new NBC12 poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Dan Jones & Associates poll with Nader in Utah has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Kentucky has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from weak Bush to strong Bush.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Maine has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Colorado has Bush in the lead.
This survey also has Amendment 36 failing 32 to 65.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Eagleton Poll poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Columbus Dispatch poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush and Kerry tied.
- The Race2004 Predict the Electoral Map Invitational is proceeding well. We've had 1,900+ entries so far. Wow! I figured we'd attract perhaps 20% of that number. You people never cease to surprise me.
Obviously, all of the likely Bush-Kerry electoral combinations were taken long ago. So I am adding an additional prize. This will go to a random person who correctly guesses the final electoral count total (subject to all the tiebreakers in the rules).
So if you haven't entered the contest yet, go submit your entry. You can still win!
- A new Research and Polling poll with Nader in New Mexico has Bush in the lead.
- The Mitchell Research rolling poll in Michigan has been updated.
- Updated! Everything should now be correct. (1:30am Eastern).
- I just updated the Rasmussen and Zogby rolling polls with last night's data. Now I'll go update the maps...