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Aug 16 , 9:07 PM
The Age of Light
by Ian Welsh
Dark is the night, and darkest before dawn – or so the saying runs. But what is blackest? How do we know that it will not get darker? Light – a hundred years ago, had there been a satellite photograph of the earth most of it would have been black. Perhaps a few sprinkles of light in Europe and the East Coast of North America – and little elsewhere. Our lit world, of light blazing ever at night, so that the children of the city don’t know what true darkness is: is a product of technology. More than that, it is a product of energy – no energy, no light. Light on demand, light for the masses, is a modern artifact of technology and cheap energy – of massive infrastructure – a power line to every house, a network of staggering size and scope which we, who grew up with it, no longer appreciate. We neither marvel at the miracle of light and heat nor do we comprehend the magnitude of the accomplishment. Taking it as our birthright, as a form of magic, we do not pay attention to the fact that it is indeed a bright moment that did not exist in the past and need not exist in the future. It is an artifact and it is neither eternal nor even all that durable, bur requires constant upkeep, repair, expansion and new power. For years that power has come from a few sources. Coal, oil, hydroelectric power, nuclear. They still account for most of the energy used in North America – and in China, where coal laden skies are the price of light, warmth and the cooling blast of air conditioners. Most of the power we use is non-renewable. There is a certain amount of coal and oil in the world, but worse than that the easy stuff is disappearing. Just as when you chop down trees to burn in the fireplace, the first oil, the first coal, the first uranium, the rivers swollen with the most rain – those are the first sources of power we have exploited. As the easy stuff disappears we must find the coal that is deeper inside the earth; the oil that does not gush by itself to the surface; and dam the smaller rivers till we come down to streams. Specialists in energy extraction – mostly chemists and geologists, call it the energy profit ratio. If it takes one barrel’s worth of oil energy to obtain four barrels of oil you’ve got a ratio of 4. If it takes one to produce 30 (the Saudi ratio), it’s thirty. In Canada’s oil sands the ratio is closer to the 3/2 – three barrels of oil for every two you expend. Nuclear power’s ratio is around 4 – at least on the older style reactors. It’s not just an academic point – it’s at the heart of what we’re facing. The lower your ratio the more economic activity has to be spent getting energy – and that economic activity isn’t being used to add value; just to satisfy the basic requirements of living and production. So when you hear talk of the end of cheap oil what we’re really talking about is the ratio of energy in to energy out – and it’s not just about oil, though MidEast oil had a great energy ratio – we’re talking about all energy sources. As we use up the best it will take more and more energy to produce the energy we need. This extends all through the system – coal, for example, is much harder to transport than gas – China is trying to move to more oil, from coal, not only because of the environmental problems but because most of their railway capacity is tied up doing nothing but hauling coal from one place to another. Those additional movement costs have to go into the energy ratio. The agricultural revolution was less an agricultural revolution (though the new seeds certainly helped) than it was an energy revolution – energy input into western farms increased massively over the last century – tractors, pesticides and fertilizers (mostly made from petrochemicals) increased energy input by magnitudes. This allowed many fewer workers to produce even more food on the same amount of land and those people flooded to the city, where, freed from the need to farm, they produced great surpluses. But while this was happening something else was occurring: the fertility of the soil was dropping and food production was increased only by increasing energy inputs – indeed while absolute numbers have increased, output per calorie in have declined. The energy ration for food production is down as well – it has dropped staggering amounts. In part this is because, again, you have to consider more than what happens on the field – all the processing we do on food and all the transport (fruit and vegetables of every kind all year round) has energy costs as well. Oil is a Dragon’s hoard of gold. Almost literally, it is the decayed remnants of beasts long dead – the gooey remains of life and it is incredibly valuable stuff. We have used that hoard to give ourselves lifestyles that would be the envy of the Kings of old – but like any found wealth we have been spending our way through it. Take another analogy – if you win the lottery you have two main choices – to spend it in a great splurge or to invest it so you can be wealthy forever - if you do the second you’ll never live as high as the first, but you’ll live well longer. Well we’ve spent a lot of it and we’re reaching the point where the amount we can extract from the horde – our monthly payments from the lottery win – cannot sustain our lifestyle. All of the money hasn’t been wasted, by any measure. We’ve built industrial infrastructure and networks of learning institutions and much more besides – institutions and networks that produce wealth. But we haven’t put as much into learning how to create more of what we need – of the Dragon’s gold, of the energy it gives. And that’s where we are now – with energy profit ratios ready to decline we find ourselves in a situation where more and more of our effort will have to go into getting energy, leaving us with less and less energy to spend on other things – not just the air conditions and lights and heating that we take for granted, but the industrial production that makes our lives of material splendor possible. And as more and more need to work just to obtain energy many activities we do that take great energy may have to be scaled back to take less: which will mean more human energy – more farmers labouring on the Latifundia of the new world (for the family farms are basically gone), few robots and more laborers – all working for less – all doing work that could be done more easily by technology, machines and chemicals – but when energy is hard to come by labor will be substituted. Perhaps your labor. And so, perhaps, the lights will dim and we may find indeed, that until we come to grips with the fact that the great treasure trove of oil is no longer sufficient to support us as kings that few of us may live lives of energy fed splendor. This is the challenge before us – like most challenges it is not insurmountable. But also like any real challenge it is not foreordained that we will succeed. For every hero’s story there are a dozen who failed… Permalink Comments
This is the challenge before us – like most challenges it is not insurmountable. But also like any real challenge it is not foreordained that we will succeed. For every hero’s story there are a dozen who failed… Oh, now, chin up. The market is really good at routing around supply bottlenecks as long as the incentive structure is right. The energy profit ratio is declining, which is the opposite of the technology economy, where GDP created per amount of energy is consistently growing. The key is to put our information systems to work on the energy profit ratio so that it goes back up again. Posted by: Matt Stoller at August 16, 2004 09:33 PMIt's not that simple. 1) The market is only good at routing around supply bottlenecks if there is something that can be substituted. 2) If the substitute is inferior, which, in fact, they are, the market is not a magic cure. 3) It is not clear that the amount of GDP per capita per KC is increasing all that significantly when you take into account both household use and energy mix, because some types of energy are, in fact, better than others and we have switched, as much as possible, to them. Sadly, those types of energy are exactly the types of energy it is hardest to expand. So, I think I'll encourage people to take this problem seriously and not assume that there is some easy fix - because there isn't - especially not if we just sit on our asses, which, so far, is what we're doing. Incentives only work if you put them in place. We've left it so late that even a crash program would probably not stop an energy related drop in GDP per capita - but it might be able to stop a crash. Energy infrastructure is not quick and easy to build. So - chin down - just like you do when you're about to get into a fight. Because the western habit of ignoring problems until they hit you square in the face can very easily cost us greatly in this case - just as it has on a number of other issues in the last few years. Posted by: Ian Welsh at August 16, 2004 09:46 PMTragedy of the commons. I used to wonder why Stirling never said anything when I'd wax philosophical about how dramatically America could cut its energy demand if the will presented itself. The answer is involved, and simple. The involved part I never quite picked up, something to do with the economics of cutting energy demand, but the simple answer was that China would just have the oil even cheaper and it would be gone just as fast. Cheap abundant oil in China would stimulate a production boom which would drop the curtain on the fossil fuel age just as fast as if we kept on driving the SUVs ourselves. Seems to me taht when that happens, energy prices in aggregate will go through the roof. We'll be especially screwed at that point if we were dumb enough to invest significantly in a "hydrogen economy." You just can't beat petroleum for ROI. I agree that ignoring the problem is stupid. I'm just not convinced anymore that unilateral efficiency measures count as a solution. More like an adaptation to the days when we'll be paying just as much per capita as we are now, for a lot less juice. Posted by: Tom Frank at August 16, 2004 10:38 PMMy hope is that the loss of cheap energy will devolve us into a simpler, 19th Century type of economy where small farms again thrive and local production and even craftsmanship become important human endeavors again. Much about oil and and this 20th Century super-global industrialism seems like a bad fever to me anyway. I already live on a simple, old-fashioned farm and there is much to be said for this lifestyle. Can we devolve gracefullly into local economies, simplicity and elegance, or will the post-peak crash come too hard and too fast for people to make the transition? That's the question ... Posted by: Don in Colorado at August 17, 2004 04:05 AM>My hope is that the loss of cheap energy will devolve us into a simpler, 19th Century type of economy where small farms again thrive and local production and even craftsmanship become important human endeavors again. All well and good, what do you tell the 4 billion people you have to off to get back to such an economy? Posted by: Stirling Newberry at August 17, 2004 06:00 AMI've been thinking about this problem for a long time, even before I stumbled into the website dieoff.org http://dieoff.org/ Lately I've rethought my position re: hydrogen and fuel cells, wondering whether nuclear (fission (small scale reactors?) or perchance the holy grail of cheap and safe fusion) might be the saving-grace to provide cheap electricity to break hydrogen from water. But I don't see too many folks talking about this, perchance because of the WMD linkage problems associated with large scale reactors. A decade ago the rage was superconductivity, which might yet stretch extant and emergent coal, wind, solar, electrical generation capabilities. http://superconductors.org/
>All well and good, what do you tell the 4 billion people you have to off to get back to such an economy? That's the one that keeps me up at night, Stirling. In a strictly biological model, if you remove the rich energy source from a booming population, it tends to crash (mass die-off), rather than to voluntarily conserve its way back to balance. Are we the kind of species that would voluntarily conserves its way to anything? Posted by: Don in Colorado at August 17, 2004 01:07 PMFor Colorado Don and others: Remember that most if not all the great dead economists recognized that capitalism was a transitory phase in human social/political organization. (See, e.g. Heilbroner's BEHIND THE VEIL OF ECONOMICS). Since the version of economics we all like to discuss so much, free market capitalism, is at best destined to prove transitory and most likely something that is best described as "a convenient fiction" anyway, let's drop the pretense of "voluntary conservation." If we are to conserve, we will not do it as a gleeful voluntary social movement. I don't know if we will, as a species, survive our agricultural/industrial/chemical revolutions, but if we do, I can't see it done voluntarily. We just haven't the collective smarts to do it voluntarily, methinks. That doesn't make me a communist, although some will so libel me. It just makes me one who recognizes a positive role for representative government. Looking at the situation of "voluntary" from another angle, an old economics professor once said, "Don't expect people to do, for very long, that which they perceive to be at odds with their self-interest." So there is a huge (albeit mostly absent) role to be played for leadership from government officials, business titans, and other institutional players to help people see that some "mutual coercion, mutually imposed" as Garret Hardin calls it, is sometimes necessary to pursue self-interest in conservation and other matters. Ian, A really good (and indeed poetic) explanation of the problem. In electricity, I worry about resistance. These huge grids are very inefficient. We waste so much electricity in teh transmission. That's after you've already generated it of course. I don't know enough of the science. I wish that more people would drive clean diesels and that biodiesel were more readily available. I read somewhere that algae was a good source. I don't know enough about this to make any really informed comments. As an aside, I've always wondered why the core inflation rate excludes the volatile energy and food prices. (Food fluctuates, of course, and energy does too, but energy drives the rest of the inflation.) Posted by: Abby at August 17, 2004 02:56 PMI agree with you, Dave. If there's any conservation, or change in "lifestyles" it will have to be done by government. China has imposed the "one-child" rule for many years now, but this would have to be a worldwide mandate to have any effect on the population/resource ratio. Americans, by and large, live in a "contentment trance," encouraged by a pervasive corporate media that shelters us from the realities that really need to be discussed in a national conversation. Since that's not going to happen, some kind of energy shock or a bursting of the housing bubble (a crisis, in other words), will have to occur. I guess my big hope is that if cheap energy and global commerce go away, local governments and local economies will quickly evolve to take up the slack. Kunstler thinks we'll become a "yard-sale" nation, recycling all the old stuff from the manufacturing era in a simpler, more informal economy. Just this week my little town is getting its first big box, a Wal-Mart Super Center. Maybe in a few years we'll be using it for our yard sales. Posted by: Don in Colorado at August 17, 2004 03:19 PMThe tragedy-of-the-commons applies. We cannot expect to do any good by conserving unless everybody on Earth conserves. The only possible solution to that problem would drive the black-helicopter crowd stark raving mad. Posted by: Tom Frank at August 17, 2004 04:07 PMYes, it is the tragedy of the commons. I recently read that we add a new Los Angeles to world population every three weeks. Or the equivalent of another Mexico every year. I'm not a great mathematician, but ... Posted by: Don in Colorado at August 17, 2004 04:52 PMSelf-correcting problem, as price rises demand will decrease. At the moment price is constrained for a variety of reasons none of them sustainable. But $100 a barrel oil is inevidible and a very good thing. When gas is $4.00 a litre (here in Canada) and $12.00 a gallon in the US, alternatives become very attractive. Back in the day I had an argument with a woman economics star who later became an Assitant Deputy Minister in the Department of National Revenue. This was at the time of the first oil shock. She told me, in po faced earnestness, that energy demand was price inelastic. This touching belief kept Detroit pumping out sub 10 mpg cars right up until the time that Honda began to outsell them. Guess what, people bought more fuel efficient cars which spurred the market to make more. My po faced friend failed to note the well known economic effect of substitution. The demand side of the equation is acutely price sensitive: people hate paying lots for gas and even more for home heat and air conditioning. Smaller cars, geothermal, solar and insulation will make the energy available last longer. From a policy perspective all that needs to happen is for government to get out of the way of the energy market. The secular trand is to higher energy prices...we may not like it and the Chinese just hate it; but the market is the only mechanism which will reduce consumption by creating incentives for subsitution. This is not a problem unless we make it one. Posted by: Jay Currie at August 18, 2004 12:55 AMNo, not a self correcting problem. Or rather, yeah, it's a self correcting problem - but the correction could be much more painful than you seem think. Markets do not price in externalities well and they do not see the future very well, this is well understood byh othodox economics, although it causes some real problems for policy. And, in fact, what needs to be done is exactly not the government getting out of the way of the energy market since the market neither prices in externalities nor sees the future particularly well. Posted by: Ian Welsh at August 18, 2004 01:01 AMOne of the problems is that the market will sacrifice the long to the short term, especially if we're talking public corporations. For a five-year investment to be better than a one-year investment, it has to produce better returns than any sequence of one-year investments I could have made during that time, transaction costs of investment being almost nothing these days. Not gonna' happen often. With capital this liquid, investment is not commitment. The result is that the market will choose a local basin over a lower basin that has high ground intervening. There is also the problem that developing and manufacturing alternatives will itself take energy, and so will become more expensive with time. For example, Solar Concentrating Power (using mirrors to heat liquid and turn turbins) looks quite good, and there are plants dating back to the mid-80's that are still going gangbusters. But it means dragging a lot of steel and mirrors to the desert, tooling them, etc. Better to do it now. Although the payoff will increase as the cost of oil increases, so will the opportunity cost of putting precious oil into that. We don't need to wait for the market signals; we can see what's coming. Posted by: Martin Bento at August 18, 2004 03:02 AMDon in Colorado: I'm afraid before you get your 19th-century style economy back, you will get 19th-century style armed gangs, and 19th-century style medical care. 5959 really nicely done. i hope all works well in timefree credit report Posted by: free credit report at September 10, 2004 06:52 AM5577 http://www.briana-banks-dot.com for Briana Banks movies. or if you would rather diecast here. Posted by: Briana Banks movies at September 10, 2004 12:13 PM76 http://texas-holdem.order.gb.com play for real money at texas holdem for gaming action. 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