02/ 3/2005
Nothing Provocative Is Nothing Ventured
Soo-Jeong Lee, Seo Hyun-jin, and the KT editorial staff mentally contort themselves so we don't have to abuse ourselves. William Saletan is near to grabbing a shadow when he quipped, "...President Bush is a man of very clear principles. He's just flexible about when to apply them." One word for this proclivity is pragmatism. More likely, its just murky.
Yet another way to call it is needlessly tiresome. Divining the Bush tea leaves could prove fruitless, as the splatter-pattern of broad strokes masquerading as a policy turns out to be a clutch of trial balloons exploded by real world events. Toss in the debates about uranium and Taiwan, and it's foreign policy by machine-gun spread. Actually, its even money whether Pyongyang shows up at all for Six-Party Talks IV, and then equally a toss-up who walks out first. What's four years waiting for the next president when the Korean impasse has gone on since 1945. What's really missing from Washington is an exit strategy looking beyond the mid-century mark.
The Bush administration has made about as much of a hash of this opportunity as it could. Not only has it squeezed the North Korean debacle into about as brief a box as possible without just pointing to a map, but the Bush administration has allowed Seoul to think it means something in Washington. All the talk of "softer stances" and "second chances" might be uplifting words for the Roh administration, but all the extra verbiage does nothing to streamline the structural mess Northeast Asia is. And, no mention of China. A policy based on not talking about a competitor is about as accomodating a stance as an American president can take without incurring a indictment for treason. Bowing at diplomatic functions is placating, but silence is incompetent statecraft.
If you want to compare the script with facial ticks or a quaver of the voice, be my guest. I refuse to be a soothsayer. I wanted a policy, a vision. I wanted Seoul spitted on a pike with Pyongyang watching. I wanted a portrait of Beijing repulsive enough to put the fear of God in American consumers. I still want an American president to mention Taiwan in any public address. I wanted a portrait of Tokyo compelling enough to silence Japanese conservatives and Korean leftists. I wanted statesmanship.
Posted by Infidel at 23:21:25 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Victor Cha And Gulags
Bidisha Banerjee links to Nicolas Kristof's reviews of two new books on North Korea. Martin's book argues for a major revision of the attitude toward the gulags, which instead of being slave labor camps, he argues, are havens for starving, poor North Korean workers. That's just as bad, a gulag that's an opportunity.
Bradley Martin's book, which took him twenty-five years to write, helps to resolve any uncertainty. Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader is, from all I have read, simply the best book ever written about North Korea. Relying largely on extensive interviews with defectors, Martin portrays North Korean life with a clarity that is stunning, and he captures the paradoxes in North Korean public opinion —people often revered their "Great Leader" at the same time that he was horrifically mismanaging their country and brutalizing their countrymen. Some will think that Martin is too soft, and others will think him too harsh, but his analysis matches what I've seen on my own trip to North Korea (before I was banned for life) and in my own interviews with North Korean citizens and defectors in China and South Korea.Martin's work is sobering—he quotes one North Korean defector after another who says that a new Korean war is entirely possible, and that many North Koreans would welcome a war in hopes that it might end their miseries. And while American policy toward North Korea seems based on the idea that just a little nudge and the entire dictatorship will come crashing down, he doesn't believe it's that fragile. I fear he is right.
Martin's book is the more ambitious. It is partly a biography of the late Great Leader, Kim Il Sung, who after his death was named his country's perpetual president. Many countries have presidents for life, but only North Korea has one who is dead. Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader is also a biography of his son, Kim Jong Il, who traditionally was called the Dear Leader but more recently has been dubbed the Great Leader as well. Martin also discusses the question of who might lead the next generation in the Communist world's first dynasty, and he provides a judicious portrait of North Korean society and Korean–US relations.
As far as Victor Cha's and David Kang's book, Kristof is soberer:
Nuclear North Korea, by Victor Cha and David Kang, concentrates on the question of what US policy toward Pyongyang should be. Cha, a Georgetown professor who has just taken a leave to run Asia policy for the Bush White House, and Kang, a Dartmouth scholar, disagree among themselves, Kang being more of an optimist about North Korea's future, and so they write alternate sections of their book, which they call "a debate on engagement strategies." This does not make for a coherent argument. Moreover, their detailed discussions of policy on nuclear proliferation tend to be technical and boring.
Kristof ends on a positive note:
American conservatives have lately adopted North Korea as a pet cause, concentrating on human rights issues. They have good reason to do so, for North Korea constantly gets away with murder, and its concentration camps are the world's worst. But there is also good reason to worry that the conservatives will end up hurting the people they claim to care most about, ordinary North Koreans, by pursuing a policy of isolating North Korea rather than engaging with it—just as human rights concerns helped to lead to the closure of North Korean labor camps in Russia, harming the laborers themselves. The most useful aspect of the conservative approach, I think, has been to call attention to the abuses in North Korea and to try to distribute radios so that news can filter inside the Hermit Kingdom. Ultimately, that may help the North Koreans themselves to bring down the North Korean regime.
For those looking for thumbnail sketches for historical reference, Kristof also has some helpful commentary.
Posted by Infidel at 13:51:33 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Thoughts On The SOTU Address
Obviously, east Asia is only important as a part of the war on terror. I'm very disappointed, that President Bush offered no plan for North Korea or Taiwan. American leaders have subordinated East Asian interests to American domestic ones and European integration, and now to Middle Eastern aims. There wasn't even a mention about China.
Domestically, I was pleased he spent so much time on Social Security, healthcare, and tax reform, but the call for a constitutional amendment defending marriage shocked me.
Judging from the partisan ovations which rarely spilled into the Democratic side, America's perspective and priorities are narrowing. I'm very worried.
Posted by Infidel at 12:13:12 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Elephants, Dragons, and Sleaze
According to the BBC (via Siberian Light), Rosneft is trying to minimize the damage to its reputation, that a previous report has wrought. Instead of Beijing working through Rosneft to facilitate the sale of Yugansk, Rosneft insists that Beijing's loan was "...used to finance current operations and 'capital-intensive strategic projects'..." and that "...the oil for China would not come from Yugansk but from its Purneftegaz unit."Its worse than before. Not only did Beijing pay, but now Rosneft sounds like a Chinese SOE or a South Korean chaebol. Who cares how the books were cooked!
Then, there's India:
Rosneft still has more debts to pay including a $5bn tax bill inherited from Yukos, Yugansk's former owner, and a $540m loan from western banks that is secured on Yugansk's oilfields. Rosneft has confirmed to the BBC that the banks have demanded repayment of the loan. To settle these debts Rosneft appears to be negotiating a separate deal with India's state oil firm ONGC, our correspondent says. Reuters quoted an unnamed senior Russian oil ministry source as saying ONGC was in line to lend Rosneft $4bn and invest a further $2bn in an equity stake in Yugansk.
More important than Rosneft's insult to my intelligence, though, is the CSM's insight here:
Four decades ago, China and India fought a border war. Now, the dragon and the elephant have begun a dance, partly competitive, partly cooperative, that is starting to shake the world economic order.
More important, competition between these two rivals is likely to supercharge the growth that already has economists shaking their heads in wonder.
China's government nurtures and directs economic activity more than India's. With a national savings rate of nearly 40 percent, it was able to invest enormous sums in infrastructure - roads, bridges, ports, power plants, and so on. Such facilities, combined with low-cost labor, attracted more than 8 percent of the world's direct investment. That investment has built factories and allowed China to acquire know-how and the latest technologies.
India, by contrast, makes use of an educated upper class, spawning a growing number of entrepreneurs. Since the mid-1980s, notes Khanna, its government has become less interventionist. Even the United Progressive Alliance, which includes two communist parties and took power after elections last year, has cautiously continued moves to encourage free enterprise, says Kochhar. Corporate taxes have been cut. The top rate for tariffs reduced in some areas. Restrictive rules on foreign investment are being relaxed. A budget later this month may signal further reforms.
Get over the wonder! Humility is good, but not when there's a possible challenge to economic good sense and international law.
Posted by Infidel at 10:41:57 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (4)
Bad Is Still Just Bad
According to Pravda, the Bush administration has no new deal for Pyongyang other than its Libyan smoking gun intelligence. The "...'sole reason' for the trip, officially billed as consultations about possible talks with North Korea about its nuclear program, was to brief Japan, South Korea and China about the information." The article mentions the collaboration of eight American agencies and a bench of scientists, measured against the previous suspicion, that "...that Libya relied on the A.Q. Kahn network in Pakistan for nuclear materials."
Oranckay makes sense:
First of all, if as the NYT article says they're thinking it's from NK because it can't be from anywhere else, then you almost hope its from NK because if it isn't, then there's no knowing where the heck it came from...
Second, this stuff about "with 90 percent certainty". Wasn't there a greater degree of certainty on Iraq? I'd like to see NK gone no matter what so I don't even need this evidence to be convinced, but if like some officials I wasn't sure NK has to go RIGHT NOW, then I'd look Michael Green in the face and ask him why I should believe him when I can't believe Powell speaking at the UN. Sexing up the intel has made the "war on terrorism" more difficult because the world has plenty of reason to doubt the US when it makes its case.
The time to jump when the Bush administration does a Cassandra routine is over. I was awaiting a re-packaged diplomatic offensive to counter Unification Minister Chung's grandstanding in Berlin, and instead this? I hope the SOTU is a stemwinder, because the Bush's second team is already showing signs of advanced incompetence and arrogance. I hope Pyongyang has nothing, not just because of the good that does for the non-proliferation and peace in the east asian region, but to embarrass the Bush administration. Its bad enough one player is holding nothing in its hand, but the other one, too?
Meanwhile, Seoul is wracking up cheap PR victories when Washington should be smacking it for jumping out of the alliance to Beijing. The Bush administration has no leverage on Seoul, and is relying on Tokyo for support. Its not worth being right with debits like these, because the Bush administration is ensuring a bi-polar east asian region, a discredited non-proliferation regime, and no influence on the peninsula.
Good job, Washington! I hope the hill's big enough, because America's going to be stuck on it for awhile!
Update: Randall Parker is also unimpressed with the Bush administration's slam dunk, and he is not alone.
Posted by Infidel at 10:20:50 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
02/ 2/2005
School Girl Love For Beijing
Collusive Governments Wrecking the International Economy?
Bill Gates cuts and pastes his own supra-national version of east Asian economic culture. South Korea (admittedly he's right about SK labor unions) is yesterday's hit song. But all that excess farm labor and those hacks in the office are the key to success. And, here Americans thought Bill was an iconic figure of the rags-to-riches variety?
"They have this mericratic [sic] way of picking people for these government posts where you rotate into the university and really think about state allocation of resources and the welfare of the country and then you rotate back into some bureaucratic position." That rotation continued, Gates explained, and leaders were constantly subjected to various kinds of ratings. "This generation of leaders is so smart, so capable, from the top down, particularly from the top down," he concluded.
How many local girls did he host in his hotel room? Perhaps, Bill is trying to get headlines in Tokyo, too, where sinecures are common.
Why does everyone find Beijing so canny? I recall the cold indignation Spock greeted Kirk's, Spock's, and Scotty's admiration for Khan's greatness in the TOS episode, Space Seed. Everyone admires the poker player hanging on the call for the other to fold, with a slow story or tug on a drink.
Until, that is, he lays down nothing.
Update: Billmon has some choice thoughts about Gates' remarks (via Richard TPD).
Posted by Infidel at 22:51:45 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chongryon Spanked
I could understand how many Koreans on the peninsula might believe Tokyo courts had declared open season on Koreans lately, but the 785 million yen fine levelled at Chongryon, Pyongyang's unofficial crsditor in Japan, by the Tokyo District Court is good in so many ways. Aside from the bonus for the Japanese economy, choking Pyongyang's coffers ever tighter makes sweet music.
Posted by Infidel at 22:14:36 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fits In The Back Pocket
As a slam dunk, the latest revelation about alleged NK uranium hexafluoride (registration-required) in Libya looks more like a two-player feint and pass waiting for the next scoop. Until Pyongyang allows IAEA inspections to facilitate comparison of local uranium samples with the samples in Libya, with the CIA's other intelligence failures lurking on the record, this uranium scoop will be merely a statistical game.
Low-grade uranium might break some IAEA standards, but not the NPT, if used for non-military uses. Pyongyang probably doesn't have the skill and hardware to enrich the uranium into bomb-grade level fuel, and Libya might not either. Of course, I'm not taking Pyongyang's word about its needs for energy-grade uranium, but given losses due to refinement, testing, and maintenance, the small amounts possibly being produced somewhere are probably dwindling. The psychological value, however, is priceless.
I'm not advocating complaceny, but there should be a consensus about the threshold above which any alleged amount of bomb-grade uranium triggers a legally defensible diplomatic and military response. Where the Bush administration wants to err on the lower end of the scale, the cost of too precipitous a preemptive strike is being paid in blood lost to Iraqi insurgents as I write. I'll accept every realist whine, except for the one where armchair hawks promise to pay for their mistakes with their own reputations. Rash actions are contagious, and wise leadership demands caution.
That's why the signals coming from Beijing are so nettlesome in a lowball sort of way. Perhaps the Bush administration has decided to handle Pyongyang behind closed doors. According to both China's official press and American military papers, the most important issues in Sino-US relations are Taiwan and the EU arms embargo. No word about Pyongyang. Indeed, the pre-SOYU address hype all seems directed at reducing both tensions and expectations.
The signs point increasingly to a Bush administration, and an American public, unconcerned about Northeast Asia. If this uranium scoop represents the quality of information handed to the American press to build a case on Pyongyang, then, uncharacteristically, I just hope the apocalypse on the peninsula waits for another presidential election.
Posted by Infidel at 21:53:27 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Road Kill
Katie Maulbetsch writes about some doctoral work Park So-jin is doing at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign on South Korean educational trends. I grew up in a family where education is important, but its hard not to believe kids in Busan are missing something. Perhaps I'm lamenting a childhood lost to reading books in my room, but I do remember breathing real while I was trying to get into trouble.
Moving from the quietly comfortable Guseo to the pensioners' haven of Jurye, I know intimately, that not all kids are chained to desks and not all mothers are road managers. As a matter of fact, I'd be willing to bet the actual percentage of hardcore education junkies is actually lower than Maulbetsch canvasses and many expats decry. The class stratification and the usefulness of a national education is what really needs evaluating.
Also, elementary schoolers also only attend school for a half day, and I was not impressed with the curriculum in Busan back in 1999-2000; too much drawing class. Also, even when studying, curricula are so full of games, singing, sppech contests, and rote learning, even if the kids enjoy it and learn, its still just memorization, not critical thinking skills. Families are paying money, not for a better curriculum, but for lower teacher-student ratios. And, I know mothers are concerned, but doing their kids' homework really sets a bad example for independent thinking.
"Actually, the children themselves are the least important ingredient in their own academic succes...the moms are the ones who need to be intelligent."
This mother's quote says it all.
Posted by Infidel at 20:26:30 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
