Win an iPod with ZDNet UK’s IT Priorities research programme
Home News Insight Reviews Downloads builder
Hardware Software Communications Internet Business Comment White Papers












Search:
top search
newsletters
Insight > Business

Tuesday 5th April 2005


Silicon Valley: mixed signals for the future
Ed Frauenheim
CNET News.com
February 11, 2005, 15:15 GMT
Talkback
If Silicon Valley is a tech bellwether, it's anyone's call where the industry is going, according to one economist... but he's certainly not optimistic

If Stephen Levy were to write a book about Silicon Valley, he would be likely riff on the title of a Dickens novel. He sees two economies going in opposite directions.

"At the high-tech end, the real story that we see is a tale of two economies," says Levy, an economist who directs the Palo Alto, California-based Centre for Continuing Study of the California Economy. As Levy sees it, the contradictions are most keenly revealed in the statistics about tech professionals who have jobs and those collecting unemployment checks. The tech Mecca continues to lose jobs in the fields of software, semiconductors, and computer and communications hardware. But at the same time, average pay for people working within Silicon Valley's different tech sectors climbed in 2003, the last year for which such recorded data are available.

Levy advises the non-profit group Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network, which recently released its annual index on the region. The index shows a curious combination of strengths and weaknesses. For example, venture capital investment in Silicon Valley rose by 15 percent last year, and the region now receives 35 percent of the nation's venture capital, up from 14 percent in 1995. What's more, job losses were less severe than in the previous two years. On the other hand, the gap between low-income households and other households increased. And housing became less affordable, especially for the poorest residents.

ZDNet UK sister site CNET News.com spoke to Levy about the state of Silicon Valley's economy, challenges the area faces from other emerging technology hubs and the first thing he'd do to improve Silicon Valley's prospects. (Hint: It's a lot lower-tech than a new computer chip or piece of software.)

Q: Silicon Valley lost 1.3 percent of its jobs last year, and average pay went down by 1 percent. Is it a sign that the high-tech economy is in trouble?
A: The job levels have fallen really substantially. The headline is that since 2000, Santa Clara County lost over 200,000 jobs. It lost a little over 20 percent of its job base, and by comparison, that's the largest amount that any metropolitan area lost since the Great Depression. So 2004 was a very modest continuation of those losses when other areas were turning around. Wages went up in high tech and down a little bit overall.

At the high-tech end, the real story that we see is a tale of two economies. If you ask how high-tech companies are doing, their sales are up, and the profits are often up, and the exports are up. And within the high-tech industry, the wages are up, despite that overall figure. Kind of everything is up but job numbers. And that's a huge "but". So people who are working are starting to do better. And then you have the rest of the economy -- the people who are waiting to see job growth. And that's not happening.

Next page
Women's advocates mourn Fiorina's loss Blogging employees? Get a policy
Why are women in IT an endangered species? Tech workers optimistic about job prospects
Email this Print this
Talkback
Talkback
Post your message here
Enjoy this article? Get the best of the technology week in a single email. ZDNet's IT Pro RoundUp distils the most important news, reviews, comment, special reports and analysis and sends it direct to your inbox. Subscribe for free weekly updates:
 Manage my newslettersMore...
Must Read News
An iPod in return for sharing your IT Priorities
Ryanair Web site row takes off
EC awaits Microsoft's full antitrust compliance
Attack on Microsoft's Groove deal fails
More...
Latest News
Government abandons ID card bill
Microsoft offers EC antitrust concessions
EC awaits Microsoft's full antitrust compliance
Attack on Microsoft's Groove deal fails
More...
Check Best Prices
Desktops
Notebooks
Handhelds
Digital Cameras
Printers
Software
Monitors
More...
Also in Insight
BPM: Bridging the digital divide
Ensuring your business can survive disaster
The five reasons you're not secure
The danger in Skype's plans
Oracle: Squaring up to SAP
Longhorn: If they build it, will anyone come?
What are your IT Priorities for 2005?
Science fiction to become science fact?
Dealing with mobile security threats
Meet new HP boss Mark Hurd
More...










Contact Us| Privacy| Terms| Permissions| ZDNet UK RSS Feeds| International| Advertise| Corrections| Site Map| Builder| silicon.com About CNET Networks
Copyright © 2005 CNET Networks, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ZDNet is a registered service mark of CNET Networks, Inc. ZDNet Logo is a service mark of CNET NETWORKS, Inc.