Senior Labour election planners have privately admitted that they expect the party to lose seven Scottish seats in the wake of voters’ unease over the Iraq war.
Labour focus groups organised in the key marginals over the last three weeks confirm their fear that six sitting MPs are in danger of losing their seats, with one first-time candidate also expected to be defeated. That would reduce the Scottish intake of Labour MPs to below 40 for the first time since 1959.
The party’s internal polling has suggested the war in Iraq is the dominant factor in the threat to the MPs’ seats. Strategists fear the large number of safe seats that will stay in Labour’s hands will be offset by significant losses in the tighter races.
Voters are apparently not switching allegiance, but a number of Labour supporters are saying they will not vote because of the conflict.
A senior Scottish Labour source said: “The marginals are far tighter than we would like. We genuinely don’t know if we will win them. Seven are too close to call.”
Another party insider said: “Iraq is affecting our core vote, no doubt about it. It is going to lose some Scottish MPs their jobs.”
Labour’s own polling statistics were confirmed by opinion polls last night. Scottish Opinion’s survey put Labour on 40%, down three points on the 2001 election result, and the SNP on 21%. Conservatives’ polled 16% and the LibDems commanded a 17% rating.
The anxiety in the Labour camp was evident when Chancellor Gordon Brown led another day of electioneering yesterday in Edinburgh, by urging voters not to let the Conservatives return to power “by the back door”.
He warned, it would take only one in 10 Labour voters from 2001 to switch parties or stay at home next wee for the Tories to start gaining seats.
Labour bosses believe they may lose Dunbartonshire East, Aberdeen South and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to the LibDems, resulting in MPs John Lyons, Anne Begg and David Stewart losing their seats.
Another Labour casualty is expected in Dumfries and Galloway, where Russell Brown is predicted to be pipped by Scots Tory Chairman Peter Duncan in the nation’s most marginal constituency.
Party sources say incumbent Iain Luke is extremely vulnerable to SNP candidate Stewart Hosie, while Labour also believes the Nationalists are ahead in Ochil and South Perthshire.
Alistair Darling is another MP thought to be struggling to hold off a challenge by the Tories in Edinburgh South West, although the Scottish Secretary is not expected to lose his seat.
The Sunday Herald understands that Labour’s Nigel Griffiths is more likely to be rejected by voters in neighbouring Edinburgh South, where the LibDems are strong.
Labour’s panic is also revealed in a letter Darling has sent to every candidate in Scotland, warning them that voter anger will be a factor on May 5.
“The battle in the marginal seats is much tighter than in the country as a whole. There is volatility in the electorate that has not existed in previous election,” he writes.
The publication last week of Lord Goldsmith’s advice on the legality of the Iraq war was a nightmare for Labour because party strategists believed they had thus far neutralised the issue in the campaign.
But the leak has turned marginal Labour majorities in Scotland into small deficits, in particular, the middle-class constituencies .
Losing seven seats would be an enormous blow for the party on top of other losses following the recent boundary change, which reduced the number of Scottish Labour MPs from 55 to 45.
Labour peer Baroness Helena Kennedy will add to the party’s woes this morning. During an interview on GMTV she will express her wish for a reduced majority. Kennedy, an opponent of the Iraq war, will say: ‘‘Obviously I am sad for Labour members who might lose their seats, but at the same time I think democracy is better and healthier when things are more balanced, when the government has got to argue for their position and it is not too easy to get things through parliament.’’
01 May 2005
