Will Carroll Presents...

Our Next Venture

Ok, so Will has outlined our move to a new site address. Just wanted to mention once again that we can be found at Post Messenger.com.
Let me mention that this is the best time of the year, as far as I’m concerned. Spring training is happening, being only a couple of weeks away from opening day, plus the college basketball tournaments are in full swing. Life is good.

Will and I have been totally in sync on what we want to do with our site. I suggest going to Post Messenger.com to read our mission statements on what we are trying to create here. (mine will be up later today) I want to mention that the thing I like most about our site is the diverse people and opinions that contribute here.
I plan on trying to bring you more in on the conversation and we have some new technological things in the pipeline that should enable that. Well, talk at you soon. Scott

Ink on our Fingers

I’ll be honest with you. None of this was planned. People ask me questions about how I became a writer, how I got my books published, and I feel almost guilty with the answer. It’s a lot of hard work and a not insignificant amount of luck. I’m at BP because my father convinced me I should go to the Winter Meetings. I have a great partner because a mutual friend thought we’d get along.

So it should come as no surprise that the newest thing in my life is a similar, out of nowhere, so-cool-its-funny thing. I was sitting around the house a couple weeks ago when the cell phone rang. The number didn’t come up, which is something I don’t normally answer. I took a chance and got an odd response.

“Is this Will Carroll, writes in Indianapolis?”

“Who’s this?” I asked/answered.

“Tony George. No, not that one,” he said, indicating he wasn’t the Indy Motor Speedway’s owner. “I run a small paper down here in Acton and New Palestine.”

“Where?”

“It’s southeast of Indianapolis, okay? It’s very small but the gentleman who’s been doing my sports coverage for thirty years is retiring. Figures, just as we finally get some good local sports.”

“Ok.” I wanted to ask what this had to do with me.

“So I came across some of your writing in SportsGuide and then on your website. You and Scott Long are good and funny and more important to me, local.”

“Ok.”

“Would you and Scott consider coming and writing for the Post-Messenger?”

Odd name. “That’s the name?” I asked.

“Yes,” he responded. “The Tri-County Post-Messenger. I’ve been wanting to get it on the web for a while and I was hoping that we could use your content in our paper and put some of our paper on the web.”

We talked a bit about conditions, terms, pay, and the details you’d assume we’d talk about and after talking with Scott, we’ve accepted. WCP will become the online section of the TC Post-Messenger in about a week - we’re working on that. What you see here won’t change much, outside of some local content about the area, which will give us an interesting balance.

I hope you’ll make the trip with us as WCP moves to www.postmessenger.com. Will and Scott’s adventure now moves to the world of ink and pixels.

Welcome Gammons Readers

I never thought - until the flood of email (600+ and counting as of this writing) - that Gammons’ note on my column might bring people to this page. Unfortunately, the lack of link (an ESPN policy, I’m told) sent people to Google and Google lists this first.

So, to all that are looking for the Team Health Reports and Under The Knife, you won’t find them here. Those are over at Baseball Prospectus, where I do my “professional” writing. You’ll find my work there, along with some of the best baseball writing around from guys like Joe Sheehan and Dayn Perry, stats like the PECOTA predictions and reliever ratings, and tons of other content. Most of it is subscription-only, but I think it’s well worth it.

What I do here is just riff on topics that come to mind. I’m liable to talk about anything (except baseball injuries) and with my partner, Scott Long, it can REALLY be anything. I hope you’ll check out both sites and participate with both.

Welcome and thanks again to Peter.

Scott and Will’s Fantasy Baseball League

I’ve set up a 16 team league with Yahoo for regulars here at this weblog. It’s free and will feature head to head weekly scoring. The league is SABR in style, so R, RBI, OBP, SLG for hitters and W, S, ERA, WHIP, for pitchers. Spaces will go face, so I recommend signing up as soon as you can.

Below is the info you will need to join. Best of Luck finishing second.

To allow other managers to join your league, send them the League ID# and Password. In your case, the ID# is 172595 and the Password is Juice.

You have chosen for your league to take part in a live online draft on Sun Mar 13 5:00pm PST.

If you choose to remain in a live draft, please arrive at the draft 10 minutes ahead of the scheduled time. The draft will start promptly and may conclude rapidly if only a few managers are logged in.

We also suggest that all league members pre-rank their players in case a manager can’t make it to the draft. Managers can do this at any time by simply going to the Fantasy Baseball home page and clicking on their team name. Thanks for joining. Good luck. —Fantasy Baseball Commissioner
http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1

** EDIT: As of 2.45 EST, the league is full. I’ll talk to Scott about setting up a second league if there’s enough interest. - WC

Gammons Homage Notes

*Picking this year’s tourney is going to be insane. I haven’t watched much hoops at all this year. In fact, I don’t think I’ve watched a full game despite the fact that A&M; is actually *gulp* good this year. The parity and loss of top level talent, in addition to the freer, less technical game played today will make upsets the rule of the first round.

*Yes, this column made my year.

*Back from Vegas with pneumonia. It sucks, but at least it waited until the end of the trip. More on the trip in another post.

*Andrew Zimbalist siding with Bud Selig? Cue the flying pigs. He’s right, however. The recent admission that 1.7 percent of players tested positive is very interesting. (By the way, that’s 24 positive tests, down from 83 the previous season.) That is very much in line with the minor leagues. I’m curious how the PA will react to this.

*Jeff Kent had an interesting take on defensive statistics. First, it’s interesting that UZR and VORP is mentioned as a given, as something everyone should know already. More importantly, I think Kent might be on to something. He questions the ability of statistics to judge positioning. I don’t know how UZR or any of the defensive rating system adjusts for this, but I think it’s an important point. Positioning is a big factor in infield defense. It relies on advance scouting, tendencies, and the coaching staff, as well as the fielder’s ability to adjust quickly to the pitch. We’re still a ways from knowing that a player can cover X feet to the left and Y feet to the right, but I think positioning is going to be a bigger factor in baseball than we think it is.

* That leads me to a second point. I saw an article crediting a manager with “handling his bullpen well.” Ok, but why do we credit the manager for this? How is he doing this? Is the pitching coach involved? The training staff? It was one of Keith Woolner’s Hilbert Questions five years ago, but we’re no closer to understanding coaches than we were then. Don’t steal my idea, but we need someone sitting in a dugout all season, analyzing how these decisions are made. Be one heck of a book, don’t you think?

* I don’t mean to pile on, but ESPN’s new layout blows. The multipart stories make me load more ads, I get it. Doesn’t make me like it.

* I can’t begin to count the ways in which this article is wrong. Tommy John does not make anyone throw harder. I could go have my elbow done … oh, wait, it already was. YOU could go have your elbow done by the best in the business and I’m guessing you won’t be on the mound this season. Bad article.

* Looking forward to hearing games on XM. We may have to do power rankings of announcing teams sometime this season.

Beware of the Hot Young College Coach

Back in the spring of 1999, the three hottest young coaches in the NCAA basketball world were Steve Alford, Quin Snyder, and Tommy Amaker. All three had been standout guards during their playing careers and seemed to be the perfect candidate to run your big-time program. Alford and Snyder were hired at the time to run Iowa and Missouri, while Amaker was finishing his first season at Seton Hall, where he would soon move up the ladder to Michigan. So what’s happened since then? Not a pretty picture.

Amaker and Snyder both were point guards at Duke who stand second and third, respectively, on the school’s all-time assists leaders list. Both had healthy assistant coaching apprenticeships next to Coach K. It seemed like the perfect pedigree. Well, both programs they lead are in bad shape. Amaker has only coached in one NCAA tournament field (at Seton Hall) and despite a great talent pool to recruit from in Michigan, has failed to bring a consistent winner back to Ann Arbor. Sure he has been plagued by a prior NCAA probation and injuries to key players, but the bottom line is that Michigan should not be finishing with 12 conference losses in a season, like the current squad has ended up with.

Snyder does seem to have excellent coaching and recruiting ability, as his past NCAA tourney records demonstrate, but his lack of institutional control over his program has led to a big stain surrounding his school. Like Michigan, Missouri looks to be a team without even a NIT invitation at the end of the 2004-05 season.

Alford was hired at Iowa, because the school was frustrated with former coach Tom Davis not being able to win a conference championship during his tenure. Well, since Alford’s arrival, Iowa has a conference record of 41-55 versus Davis’ 55-49. Alford has had only one NCAA tournament appearance in Iowa City, while Davis went to the big dance 9 out of 13 years, despite coaching against a much stronger Big 10 conference overall. Alford has had transfer problems and continued arrest incidents with his players, unlike the days under Dr. Tom, who ran a model program.

Now the hot young trio of coaches are not so young and are sitting directly on the hot seat. Keep these three coaches stories in mind, when you hear Dick Vitale touting the next new young upstart who makes his name during Championshop week. The storybook endings that Alford, Snyder, and Amaker have dreamed about look to have little chance of happening. If they do, it will be in the distant future at different jobs.

Fantasy Baseball Questions for 2005

For the past few years, Fantasy Drafts have been pretty easy to do if you had the first pick. Choice: Alex Rodriguez. Well after last year’s battles in Yankee Stadium, the first choice is more of an open field. Since I only play in Sabremetric leagues, the stats we are working with are OBP, SLG, Runs, RBI’s.
1. Who would your choice be for first pick in 2005?

The last few seasons the first pitcher taken has been Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. Well after Johan Santana’s glorious year (I had him on all my fantasy teams in 2004, so yes, glorious is the word) things might have finally changed.
2. Who would your choice be for first pitcher chosen in 2005? (Saber categories of Wins, ERA, WHIP use in determining your choice)

In my 10 years of playing fantasy baseball, the one postion that creates the most havoc in drafts is closers. It seems like the top 4 go at a normal rate, but then someone will reach for the next closer and boom there is a run and if you are waiting to pick, you might get left without a quality reliever.
3. Since Eric Gagne will most likely be the first choice in most drafts, what closer would you choose after him? (Use Saves, ERA, WHIP in determining your choice)

Every year there are surprises on the plus and minus side.
4. Which top 50 draftee will falter the most?
5. Which player not ranked in the Top 150 will have the best year?
(If you are asking, where is this Top 50 or Top 150 list, go to one of the internet sites or fantasy magazines or just guess on it.)

1. Albert Pujols
2. Johan Santana
3. Joe Nathan
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Richard Hidalgo

In a sabremetric league, Pujols has only trailed Bonds the past couple of seasons and I suspect Bonds will finally drop behind him in 2005. Considering the ages of Johnson and Schilling, plus Prior’s question marks, Santana’s my guy, though I can’t imagine him duplicating his post May 2005. With strikeout’s not in the stat margin, I choose Nathan, as Lidge won’t get as many chances to save games in 2005 and I suspect the Twins will be in a ton of close ones.
Beltre had his career year and while he has some great table setters in front of him, SAFECO field will mute some of this. I think PECOTA is pretty close to right on him for 2005. Hildago had his career year in 2003, but hitting in Arlington with the lineup surrounding him will make his stats shine.

I would be interested to get your 5 answers to these questions. Also, we will have a free fantasy baseball league through Yahoo, so be on the lookout for info on that in the next few days.

Phrase Git ‘er Done must be Stopped!

As a touring stand-up comedian, people often ask me if hecklers bother me. Since I have a Don Rickles predilection to rip said heckler to shreds, it usually doesn’t faze me. What does bother me beyond belief is this phrase that’s sweeping the nation, Git ‘er done. Uttered by comedian Larry the Cable Guy, I would say at one out of every 3 shows, some dlido in the crowd feels the need to yell it out, after one of my punchlines. This phrase magically wrecks momentum faster than bringing in Billy Koch.

Recently I read a posting that the very funny comic, Doug Stanhope wrote to Larry the Cable Guy. I recommend reading the whole post, but it should be noted that his site has adult material on it, so if you punch the link, be forewarned. Go to December 31st post to find letter to Larry the Cable Guy.
Below is one part of this post I think sums up the issue.

To Cable Guy: It’s just that, you know me and some of the other guys out there on the road have been having problems with this (pauses and squints) … “Git Er Done” thing. I mean, no one can blame you for taking the Wal-Mart approach of appealing to the absolute stupidest, water-brained Velveeta cheese flag-monkeys on the planet - no offense - but what you’ve gone and done is given them something to *say*. Out loud.

It’s reached such an epidemic that I’m considering having comedy clubs add it to the list of things they ask the audience not do at the start of shows. (like please keep your table talk down and turning off all cell phones) So in closing, if you are one of those people that needs to constantly say catch phrases like “Alrighty, then” or Been there, done that”, please don’t add “Git Er Done” to your list. If you are one of these people, let this post be an intervention to helping you stop your destructive behavior, as I can guarantee most people want to strangle you for your catch phrase insanity.

Follow up to Will’s blogging post

In Will’s excellent recent post Making the Call, he discussed how he would like to see the blogging world put more effort in interviewing the people they write about. A good example of someone doing this is Vince Galloro, who has developed a great White Sox blog titled Exile in Wrigleyville. (wordplay on Liz Phair’s debut) Vince is quick to fly off the handle, but his passion is a large part of Exile’s charm.

Recently, Vince conducted an interview with Cubs beat writer Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune) and White Sox beat writer Scot Gregor. I highly recommend reading this interview, as it gives some insight on two very different opinions on baseball bloggers.

As much as Sullivan comes off like a complete DICK during the interview, I do give him some props for being honest in his answers. Sullivan has an occasional segment at the Tribune’s internet site, responding to readers questions. I used to read it when he wrote on the White Sox and the guy is a very witty, first class smartass. In a world of politically correct types, Sullivan isn’t afraid to attack anyone. Now if he would only be open-minded enough to consider that just because it’s new (blogs) doesn’t mean it’s all crap, he would be even better for it. Of course, considering where I’m writing this, he will never see it, so I guess it doesn’t really matter.

SI Swimsuit Review: 2005 Edition

Well, it’s that time of the year again, the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue is out and here come the annual flood of letters from angry Mothers like “I didn’t purchase this magazine for my son so he could look at such depravity. Cancel my subscription.” OK, it’s time to stop with the letters ladies, SI has been doing a swimsuit issue for 41 years. Listen Mommies, if you don’t know the magazine features scantily-clad models on a yearly basis, then you should not only be forced to keep the subscription, you should be forced to slide it under the bathroom door to your 13 year-old son, with a bottle of Jurgens.

Being of this age in the late 70’s, I was not blessed with the advantages of HBO, Skinemax, or even Victoria Secret catalogues, so outside of a weekly 20 second blip of babes cruising the lido deck of the Love Boat, this issue was an important aid to my, uh, um, er, development. I can recall that there was a battle to try to keep this out of reach of us boys, though. Our school librarians used to cut all the swimsuit pages out of the issue to “protect” us from our less than prurient desires. (Note: Not until the 90’s did the issue warrant more than 5 or 10 pages of models, the rest of the issue being a normal SI.)

Fortunately, since it was a sports magazine, a minor could purchase it at the drug store, unlike the Playboy, Penthouse, and Oui magazines behind the counter. This is where I got a chance to see the fishnet suit of Cheryl Tiegs, demonstrating that a one-piece suit was not without it’s charms. Since this point, the swimsuit edition has tried to amp up the sex, but the shot of Tiegs will never be topped, as it had what the best form of nudity, the unexpected kind.

Let me stress to any women reading this entry, if you are upset at your husband or boyfriend for looking at this magazine now, get over it. Many women think that adult males use it for some masturbatory action. Ladies, that’s really sweet, but it’s time someone levels with you. We men only wish we could get off on something this innocent, but years of hardcore pornography have worn off any major thrills a swimsuit magazine could elicit. Not even a Promise keeper member hopped up on a bottle of Cialis could get a hallelujah from his lower pulpit from looking at this issue. Don’t get me wrong, it’s enjoyable to look at, but most of us men now, look at it as male obligation, like taking out the trash or lighting the grill.

The following is a review of this year’s edition, so pull out your 2005 Swimsuit hymnals and follow along.

Testing, Testing

It looks like MLB and the MLBPA were able to get the deal done on testing before games started. I guess that’s good, ending much better than their agreement on a worldwide draft.

The most interesting part of this piece is buried at the bottom. Don Fehr slips out that no one tested positive twice and that the numbers went down significantly in 2004. Looking closer, this means that we *did* have positive tests, something I’ve heard conflicting denials on this off-season. It also means that there were “significantly less” than the 83 positive tests in 2003.

I’m not sure what significantly less means here. We don’t have the full context. Fehr isn’t given to exaggeration or hyperbole, so let’s call it a 50% reduction. That’s still 40 positives, which would be higher than the roughly 30 we had in minor league baseball and much higher on a percentage basis.

With the new testing agreement in place, the only important test is the next positive. Anyone else think it will come during spring training?

Tech Problem

I’ve followed this one a while, mostly because it got a lot of early coverage in Indy due to a Bob Knight connection. Texas Tech is being held in violation of NCAA rules for supplying substances outside a very limited group.

Most of the articles I’ve seen, including the SI that I linked to, do a very poor job of noting that it is the supplying of these substances, not the substance or use, that is the violation. I could go on a massive anti-NCAA rant, but will resist for now. Suffice it to say that anything that the schools could give to the students would probably be banned by the NCAA if they could, up to and including the scholarships.

Late Nite Notes

For all intents and purposes, “The Juice” is loose. Err, finished. There’s a couple loose ends to tie, including an end-run around the roadblock I’ve mentioned a couple times. Still, I must admit it feels good. I hope everyone likes the finished product as much as I hope they do. I’m proud of it and for a writer, that has to suffice.

Bill Maher had Jose Canseco on his HBO show. It replays, so be sure to catch it. After a smarmy start, Maher asked some great questions and didn’t let him slide when he tried to avoid them. What struck me is that Canseco seems to have a very tenuous grasp on the health effects of steroids. When asked if steroids help, there *are* some answers, such as hormone replacement therapy for declining testosterone production, assistance with wasting diseases such as cancer and AIDS, as well as some more aggressive anti-aging treatments.

Remember, this is a guy that called himself “The Chemist,” purporting to mix steroids and growth hormones to optimize his body for baseball. I’m guessing that stoichometry is not one of Jose’s five tools. Call me an egotist all you want, but here’s one basic difference between Jose’s book and mine — Jose says he’s an expert; I go and talk to experts, then explain it.

Big happenings in these parts beyond that. More on a very interesting development in the next couple days.

Baseball Analysts

If you weren’t aware, let me recommend visiting Baseball Analysts, which is the new site by All-Baseball alums Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith. Of all the baseball blogs on the planet, Rich’s has been my favorite, as he mixes old and new media styles, coming up with some great work. I think Bryan does some fantastic work getting to the core of transaction analysis, plus he’s a University of Iowa guy, like myself, so he follows in a long line of great writer’s from the school like John Irving, Kurt Vonnegut, Flannery O’Connor, etc. (Well, maybe Bryan and I are not in that category.) I wish them the best of luck and know their site will be one I check on a regular basis.

Rich has a great piece where he’s interviewed a lot of baseball writers discussing who their favorite player was when they were growing up.
It’s weird how a player you have only a slight connection to and someone who might not be a star can connect with you as a child.

I grew up in Iowa, so there was not one team which I would automatically gravitate to. Kansas City was closest, but the Royals have never been a team I’ve liked. Minnesota was almost the same distance as KC and was the team broadcasted on the big AM station (WHO), but they never connected with me. In those days, the Triple A team in Des Moines was named the Iowa Oaks and had players like Vida Blue make stopovers on the way to the big leagues, since it was the A’s farm club, but they weren’t my team either. Now, I would guess that currently, half of the state is Cubs fans, but in those days, despite having WGN games on Sunday afternoon, I didn’t know one Cub fan. My team was the Tigers.

My Dad was born in Detroit and my Grandmother still lived there, so every couple of years we would make the Trek up to the Motor City for a game at newly named Tiger Stadium. (It had been called Briggs Stadium) This was just a few years after the great 1968 World Championship season, so my heroes became Willie Horton, Mickey Lolich, and Al Kaline.

For some reason, my favorite player was Norm Cash, though. My guess was that he was second in homeruns (1971) the year I first started collecting baseball cards. (Beltin’ Bill Melton led the AL with 33) Looking on the back of Cash’s card, I discovered one of the great mystery seasons of all-time. In 1961, Cash batted .361, with 41 dingers and 132 ribbies. This entitled him to a 4th place finish in the AL MVP race.
I guess there must have been something special going on that season.

Taking their OPS in 1961, Maris (993) and Mantle’s (1135) were behind Cash (1148). This put his OPS 201 points higher than the league average. Place of deleted sentence
Cash continued to be a good player the rest of his career, finishing with an OPS of .862, which is made more impressive by the fact that the last half of his career was a pitching era. Still, it should be noted that he never batted over .300, after the magical 1961 season and followed up in 1962 with an average of .243, a swing of -.118 points.
Well, that’s my wrapup on my boyhood favorite player. Thanks once again to Baseball-Reference.com.

Canseco, Olberman, and Mr. Blackwell

I just watched an interview that Keith Olberman conducted on his great MSNBC show, with Jose Canseco. Jose was solid in his points and has said that he will take a lie-detector on national TV to validate the book. (and of course he wants to get paid for this.)

There was one very disconcerting thing during the interview. Jose was wearing a “shirt” that appeared to be made of a see-through silk scarf material. It looked like something out of an International Male catalogue or a woman’s store (Lane Bryant would be the only one that would have his size.) Underneath this “shirt” Jose was sporting a tank top. Dude, if you want to gain more validity, lose the blouse. This “shirt” made the Seinfeld puffy shirt seem like a Brooks Brothers button down.

On the subject of steroid books, Let me recommend to Will not to wear any see-through shirts or pants. Well, unless you’re on Hannity and Colmes, because that show could use a little sex appeal.