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October 08, 2005
Playoffs Today

Only two games today as LAnaheim-New York is postponed until tomorrow.

The early late game sees the NLDS moving to Houston as the Braves face the Astros. Atlanta sends Jorge Sosa to the mound to take on the Astros third ace, Roy Oswalt. Sosa pitched great as a reliever and almost as good as a starter. Sosa's main weakness as a starter is his stamina. He only averaged 5 1/3 innings per start this season. He simply throws a lot of pitches. He puts men on base (.359 OBA allowed with none on) but doesn't let them score (.194 batting average allowed with runners in scoring position). He'll give them five or six good innings, then it's up to the bullpen.

Oswalt won the most games in the majors over the the last two years. He got there doing three things well; he strikes out batters, he doesn't walk many and he gives up a fairly low number of home runs.

Oswalt, however, has never beaten the Braves in the regular season. In five games against Atlanta, he's posted a 6.41 ERA. In his only start against them this season, Atlanta hammered him for 9 runs, 7 earned in just five innings.

Even people in St. Louis are going to need to stay up past their bed time to catch the Cardinals vs. San Diego. An 8 PM west coast start means St. Louis fans will be up late to see if the Cardinals can take the series tonight. St. Louis sends Matt Morris against form Cardinals pitcher Woody Williams.

Morris never returned to the dominant form he showed in 2001 and 2002. His K per 9 is much lower now than it was at the time. But this year he cut down on his walks, and while not dominant is a solid middle starter.

Woody Williams had a poor season, especially away from PETCO. But at home, he posted a 5-7 record by a 3.72 ERA. It's not exactly a stellar number in that ball park.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 06, 2005
Playoffs Today

It's NL Game 2 day and it's starts at 4 PM EDT as the Padres and Cardinals continue their series. With the injury to Jake Peavy, Pedro Astacio moves into the ace role for San Diego. He probably needs to win two games for the Padres in this series for them to have a chance. We saw what St. Louis hitters did to mediocre pitching on Tuesday, and there's a lot of that in the Padres rotation.

San Diego won Astacio's last five starts, and he pitched well enough for them to win the last seven. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last 45 innings. He's done it by keeping the ball in the park, with just two homers flying out of the field of play in that time.

He'll face Mark Mulder. In four post-season starts, Mulder's ERA is a mere 2.25, yet he's only 2-2. He's struck out 19 while walking only five in 24 innings. If the Cardinals get two starts like that from Mark, they'll be moving on to the next round.

The late matchup is the Geezer Game of the year, pitting Roger Clemens against John Smoltz in Houston. The last time these two faced each other in the post season was game four of the 1999 World Series. The Yankees won that game 4-1, taking the series, but in some ways Smoltz out pitched Roger. Clemens only struck out four in his 7 2/3 innings, while John K'd 11 in his seven innings. But Smoltz gave up four of his six hits in the fourth (all singles) to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead which they never relinquished.

Smoltz is 6-0 in division series play and 14-4 overall in the post season. And while Clemens World Series ERA is very good, he's had trouble in the early rounds, posting a 4.12 combined ERA in the LDS and LCS.

Enjoy!

Correction: Clemens went 7 2/3 innings in his game, not 4 2/3. Sorry about the typo.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:27 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
October 02, 2005
Games of the Day

Timing matters today. The Phillies and Indians get the Day of the Wild Card started at 1 PM. Jon Lieber takes the mound for the Phillies in Washington. This is the game Jon was hired to win. Jon had a bell shaped season. He's 8-2 in April and September with stellar ERAs, 8-11 the rest of the year. He usually shows great control, but 7 of Lieber's 38 walks this were drawn by the Nationals, none intentional.

He'll be opposed by Hector Carrasco. The resurrected reliever is flourishing as a starter, posting an 0.83 ERA in four starts. He the two runs allowed came in his first start and no one's crossed the plate against him since.

The Phillies need to win this game. If they lose, the NL Wild Card belongs to the Astros. Chicago and Houston get underway at 2 PM with Greg Maddux facing Roy Oswalt. Maddux's last losing season was in 1987. If he can earn the W today, he'll be 14-14 and pick up career win 319. Greg has a 2.60 career ERA vs. the Astros and he's won nine of his last eleven starts against the team.

He'll be opposed by the third ace of the Astros staff, Roy Oswalt. The Astros won five of Oswalt's last six starts, and in four of them the righty allowed only one run. He's in a comfortable place as he goes for win number 20. Roy is 11-2 at the Juice Box with an ERA of 2.33. A win for Oswalt accomplishes three things: a Wild Card for Houston, back-to-back twenty win seasons for Oswalt, and will give him the most wins over the last two seasons.

The Indians play their own must win game at 1 PM. Cleveland's had no trouble shutting down the White Sox offense. They just can't score runs lately. They've scored 19 runs in their last six games, only 13 in the five losses. They've had plenty of opportunities to score; they've put 71 runners on base via a hit, walk or HBP in that time.

Watching that score will be the Red Sox. The Indians' losses the last two night means this isn't a titanic struggle. Both teams are playing for something, it just doesn't have to do with their opponent. A Sox win (Red or White) means Boston is in the playoffs. A Yankees win means the team gets to go home to open the LDS at Yankee Stadium. It looks like the Yankees are more concerned about winning the first round than where they are playing it as they're sending Jaret Wright to the mound instead of Mike Mussina. Schilling will pitch for the Red Sox. Schilling's been up and down lately, with good starts against the Yankees and Devil Rays, poor ones against the Athletics and Blue Jays. If he stays with the pattern, he'll be good today.

Finally, the Angels will be watching the Yankees score, as a New York loss and a LAnaheim win over Texas puts the Tuesday prime time game in Anaheim. After losing four in a row to Seattle and Detroit, the Angels went on a streak to win 13 of their last 15 games. They've outscored their opponents 78-56 over that stretch. Guerrero and Figgins, as usual, are leading the charge.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2005
Games of the Day

Today's Yankees-Red Sox game is the best pitching matchup of the series, but it's also the least important game. With the Red Sox winning last night, today's game simply becomes a prelude to tomorrow's do or die game. Lyflines has the updates on the playoff scenarios.

Randy Johnson was hired for games like this. Pedro Martinez didn't do well in his must-win game, so we'll see if the Yankees spent their money more wisely. Randy's been on a roll since August 26th, posting a 1.64 in those seven games. His strikeouts are still not back however. While 7.4 per nine is still very good, it's not the 9.0+ we're used to from the Big Unit.

Wakefield's carried the Boston rotation through September. He put up a 1.99 ERA in the month with a strikeout rate very similar to Johnson's and walking very few. A knuckleballer with control is a dangerous weapon.

Cleveland, despite the loss last night still controls their destiny. If they win their last two games, they at least live to fight another day. With the Red Sox winning yesterday, however, they can no longer afford to lose all their games. Jon Garland takes the mound for the White Sox against Jake Westbrook today. The Chicago offense figured out Westbrook pretty well this season. In four starts, the White Sox scored 17 runs (15 earned) in 26 1/3 innings vs. Jake. Garland looked like a sure 20-game winner at the end of July, but he's gone 2-6 since the end of that month, giving up 13 of his 26 home runs in that time.

The Phillies will try to hold on for one more day with a win against the Nationals. Brett Myers hurls against John Patterson. The Phillies only one one of Myers last five starts. Patterson is pretty untouchable at home, giving up just 97 hits in 120 innings for a .219 BA allowed at RFK. Opponents slug a measly .318 against him there.

The Astros need a win real bad. Just one assures them a tie come tomorrow night. They'll go with their best as Roger Clemens hosts Jerome Williams. Williams had a very good September, posting a 2.10 ERA on the strength of just allowing one home run in 34 1/3 innings. Clemens ran out of gas and health in the month. He's had eleven days off to recharge and heal, and the Astros hope he's back to giving them seven shutout innings.

And let's not forget the Angels. They could still tie the Eastern winner for second best record in the AL. They win the home field tie-breaker with the Yankees but lose it with the Red Sox.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 30, 2005
Cubs vs. Astros

A Houston win guarantees them a share of the NL Wild card. They'll send their best second half pitcher, Andy Pettitte vs. the Cubs Carlos Zambrano. Pettitte's been the best pitcher in the National League since the All-Star break. His strike outs and walks have been particularly excellent.

Despite a rough September, Zambrano is 3-1. He's allowed six home runs this month; one more will be the most he's allowed in a month this year.

Over the last two seasons, the Astros are 104-64 from July through October, 3 1/2 games behind the Cardinals. If they figure out how to win early in the season, they may be able to compete win St. Louis for the division instead of just the Wild Card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Phillies vs. Nationals

The Phillies phind themselves two games out of the wild card with three to play. They simply need to win all their remaining games to have a shot at making the playoffs. They're in Washington tonight to take on the Nationals.

Cory Lidle will start for Philadelphia. Lidle's been giving up a lot of hits lately, 28 in his last 22 2/3 innings, but only one home run. That might not bode well for him in Washington, where long balls are difficult to hit. Lots of singles tonight could be his downfall.

The Nationals are playing to finish above .500. Their next win is their 82nd, and they'll send Livan Hernandez to the mound to try for the win. He's been going deep into games but without good results. Over his last seven starts he's pitched 52 1/3 innings but with a 4.47 ERA and a 1-4 record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox vs. Indians

The White Sox magic number to clinch home field advantage is one over the Yankees and the Red Sox. A Chicago win gives them home field period. However, a Yankees loss does not. If the Red Sox and Indians sweep, then Boston gets home field. I believe the correct logic is (White Sox win) or (Red Sox loss and Yankees loss) gives Chicago home field.

Cleveland is in control of it's Wild Card destiny at this point. An Indians sweep and they are in as the wild card. Taking two out of three assures them of at least a tie for the slot. Over all, they have a 75% chance of coming out of the weekend with at least a wild card tie.

Tonight's matchup is the best of the series as Buehrle face Millwood. Despite just 16 wins, Buehrle is a very good Cy Young candidate. His winning percentage (.667) is excellent. He's third in ERA, doesn't walk many and pitches for a division winning team. Millwood is leading the league in ERA, yet has a losing record. He hasn't pitched anywhere near the number of innings as Buehrle, but has allowed the same number of home runs and more walks. Buehrle definitely deserves the award more than Millwood.

Buehrle against Cleveland is typical of his season. He's made four starts, pitched well enough to win all four (allowing just 9 runs in 27 1/3 innings) but his record is 2-0. Cleveland has touched him for the long ball has 4 of his 20 home runs allowed came off Indians bats.

Millwood's allowed 1 earned run in each of his last four starts, but he's also allowed five unearned runs in that time. Like Buehrle, Kevin's season against the White Sox is a microcosom of his stats overall. In four starts versus Chicago Millwood post a 1.33 ERA but an 0-2 record. White Sox hitters have yet to homer against the righty.

The big sluggers performed well head-to-head this season. Konerko has eight extra-base hits including three home runs to go with 11 RBI and 10 runs scored. Hafner's been to offensive star of the season series, however, with 12 extra-base hits, five home runs, 16 RBI and 9 runs scored.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees vs. Red Sox

Instead of the usual games of the day, I'm going to take the big games separately today, and look at the series as a whole.

It's difficult to imagine two teams that are more evenly matched. Since the start of 2002, the Yankees lead the regular season series 37-36. The Red Sox taking two out of three this weekend would not only leave the teams tied at the top of the American League East, but tied over the last four seasons. They've played two great seven games series the last two years and split those games as well.

The teams are cut from the same cloth. Check out the Runs Scored and Allowed graph at The Hardball Times. These are lucky teams built on offense. Go down to the On-Base vs. Slugging graph and notice how these two teams are off the chart.

So it's likely to be a series settled by the offenses. The Red Sox put at least eight tough outs in the lineup every day. Look at the aggregate batting order (scroll down). Eight spots with higher than average OBAs. When Graffanino is in the lineup, you can make that nine. The Yankees tend to have a couple of holes in their order, but with Torre moving A-Rod to the two spot, the Yankees 1-5 are an on-base machine, with power in four of those slots.

It will be mostly veterans on the mound this weekend. The average seasonal age of the Red Sox starters will be 39 1/3. The Yankees send Johnson and Mussina on Saturday and Sunday, but go with the rookie Wang tonight. Chien-Ming is very good at keeping runners off base. Overall, he's allowed a mere .307 OBA to his opponents. With no one on, that drops to .286. It's when he allows someone to reach base that he gets in trouble, as both his opponents OBA and slugging percentages balloon. Maybe he shouldn't pitch from the stretch. He's not good at stopping the running game anyway (runners are 5 for 6 against him). A good strategy with the Sox would be to stick with the windup and get the batters out.

Facing Wang is David Wells. Wells has a bad knee. He's had a bad back for a while. He's a lefty pitching at Fenway. And like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. He's had five outings in which he's given up six runs or more, and five outings where he's allowed nothing.

Neither pitcher walks many batters. It a situation with few walks, batting average becomes important. And while the Red Sox and Yankees are separated by just a point in OBA, they Red Sox have a five point lead in batting average (Boston and New York and 1-2 in the majors in both categories). That gives the Boston offense a slight advantage.

Ortiz vs. A-Rod. Manny vs. Sheffield. Jeter vs. Damon. The switch hitting catchers. Boston facing Wang and Johnson. Schilling's ankle. Wakefield's floater. Rivera coming in for two innings. The dreaded Bellhorn/Stanton matchup. Enjoy the weekend!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2005
Games of the Day

We'll get an early clue if the four-way tie scenario will hold up when the White Sox play at Detroit this afternoon. A White Sox win means the best we can do is a three-way tie. Freddy Garcia hasn't been striking out batters lately, just 10 in his last 26 2/3 innings.

Aaron Small goes for win number 10 tonight against Baltimore. If the Yankees get a big lead early, I'll bet they pull Small to make him available for long relief Sunday or a start in a playoff game on Monday.

The Red Sox try to earn a split with the Blue Jays. Matt Clement was lucky to get away with six scoreless innings in his last start against the Orioles. Ten base runners in six innings probably won't cut it against the Blue Jays in Fenway.

C.C. Sabathia tries to figure out the Devil Rays tonight. Given the role of spoiler, the Devil Rays are filling the bill well, going 5-3 against Boston, LAnaheim and Cleveland.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
September 28, 2005
Games of the Day

It's do or die down the stretch for the four teams competing for the three remaining playoff slots. The Yankees get things started in Baltimore tonight as Shawn Chacon faces Daniel Cabrera. The Yankees are getting Cabrera on a roll. He's posted a 2.25 ERA in September while striking out 29 in 24 innings. Chacon's not doing badly himself as he's on a streak of 16 consecutive scoreless innings.

Game three of the purple series gets underway at about the same time as the Red Sox host the Blue Jays. Ted Lilly hurls for Toronto against Bronson Arroyo. The long ball continues to bother Ted, as he's allowed 8 home runs in his last 24 2/3 innings. The Red Sox won the last five starts made by Bronson. He's been going deep into the games as well, averaging seven innings pitched over that time. He's only struck out 13 in his 35 innings during the streak, but he's also just allowed 12 walks and two home runs.

Seth McClung takes his convenience store ERA (7.11) into Cleveland tonight. He faced the Yankees and Red Sox in his last two starts and allowed seven runs in each game. Seth does not understand the term "spoiler." He'll face 18-4 Cliff Lee. Cliff is undefeated in August and September and only walked 17 in his last 10 starts.

The White Sox magic number is three to clinch bot the division and home field throughout the playoffs. They visit Detroit where Jose Contreras takes on Sean Douglass. Contreras is on a seven-game winning streak. He's posted a 2.06 ERA over the streak and has allowed just 43 hits in 52 1/3 innings. Douglass made two starts against the White Sox this season and allowed 9 runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 27, 2005
Games of the Day

The Red Sox play a double header today, and game 2 looks like the best matchup as Chacin faces Schilling. A great game by Chacin will get him Jackie Robinson award attention. A great game by Shilling sets up a cool Sunday matchup vs. Mussina.

Mike makes his second start since his time off. He was very sharp in his last outing, walking none and using only 76 pitches in six innings. He'll face Bruce Chen who kept the Yankees off balance with his slow stuff in his last start.

The Braves and the Angels both clinch with wins tonight, although a Phillies loss also gives the Braves the division title.

The Astros visit St. Louis. La Russa is starting Matt Morris against Roy Oswalt. We'll see if he starts his playoff lineup or a bunch of scrubs and Albert Pujols. One could argue that it's in the best interest of St. Louis to lose these two games against Houston, as that would help them get the Western winner as their first round opponent.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 26, 2005
Games of the Day

Two do or die games on the west coast pit the north against the south. Both bay area teams are four games back with seven to play, trailing a southern California team. One loss makes their situation precarious; two losses and they're done.

The Padres host the Giants with ace Jake Peavy hurling against Brad Hennessey. Peavy's handled the Giants well this year, posting a 2.08 ERA while striking out 18 in 13 innings pitched. Hennessey made just one start against the Padres and was knocked out in the third inning.

Peavy's pitched Bonds very carefully in his career. Barry has three home runs in 16 at bats vs. Jake, but Peavey's walked Bonds 11 times. PETCO has contain Barry's power, however. He's hit just 1 home run in 30 at bats in the new San Diego stadium.

Up north, the Oakland Athletics host the LAnaheim Angels. John Lackey takes the hill against Joe Blanton. The ERAs for the two pitchers are almost identical, Lackey's being .05 runs better than Blantons. The Angels scored 109 runs vs. the 83 Lackey's allowed, while Oakland's just scored 82 against the 85 Blanton's allowed. Scutaro is the only player on the Oakland roster to homer against Lackey.

The Angels outscored Oakland 53 to 40 this season, but have a 7-8 record against the Athletics. The A's have tended to win the close ones vs the Angels this year.

Also note that Randy Johnson goes for the Yankees tonight while Curt Schilling hurls for the Red Sox. There was hope these two would open the season against each other, but a showdown between the former teammates in the scheduled penultimate game of the regular season works even better.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:57 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 25, 2005
Games of the Day

The New York Yankees face the Toronto Blue Jays today and send rookie Chien-Ming Wang against Josh Towers. I'm still wondering what happened to Wang's strikeouts. His walks are great, his home runs allowed are good, but his strikeouts are way down from his minor league numbers, where he was in the high 6s low 7s per nine innings. His K per 9 is just 3.5 with the Yankees, and I don't see how he can be successful long term with those numbers. In his second season as a full time starter, Josh Towers greatly reduced his walks and his ERA. He's walked 28 this season after walking 26 last year in about 1/2 the innings. The Jays rotation is looking good for next season if Halladay returns healthy. Chacin and Towers give them a very good 1-2-3.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox send gimpy David Wells against John Maine and the Baltimore Orioles. Wells' right knee received a cortisone shot, so we'll see how effective he pitches today. We've seen a Wells injury cost his team a game in the past. Maine walks lots of batters and gives up home runs at an impressive rate. He's just the kind of pitcher the Boston offense should crush.

The Phillies lost a tough one last night, as they fell to the pitcher with the worst ERA in the National League. They'll try to keep up with the Astros this afternoon as they send Cory Lidle against Randy Keisler. Lidle's had a horrendous second half, allowing a .351 batting average and a 7.04 ERA. Kiesler's only given up 3 earned runs in two start since moving from the bullpen. However, his 8 walks and two home runs have resulted in five unearned runs.

Houston will try to reduce their magic number to five with a win over the Cubs. Andy Pettitte is their late season ace and he'll take the mound against Jerome Williams. Pettitte is 11-2 with a 1.73 ERA since the All-Star break, the best ERA in the NL.

The AL Central remains close. The Indians face Zack Greinke today. After three horrible months, the youngster appears to have found himself in September. He's struck out 12 in the month while walking just four enroute to a 2.96 ERA. The Indians saved their power for the end of the year. They've hit 23% of their home runs this month and have only missed homering in one game in September.

On the West Coast, the Angels play early and the Athletics late. Bartolo Colon goes for win 21, and that victory would mean that the Angels just need to split with the Athletics to win the West. Colon's back is bothering him, but if the Angels win today it becomes less likely they'll need to start him on short rest against the A's on Thursday.

The Athletics are the ESPN game of the week. Juan Dominguez of the Rangers opposes Kirk Saarloos. Dominguez is posting the kind of numbers as a starter that will fit in very well with the Rangers offense. I expect to see him in the rotation next season. The A's are 25-23 since Steven Levitt bet on them to win 89 games. They'll have to spilt their last 8 to achieve that number.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 24, 2005
Games of the Day

It's the name game today. There's an all wood matchup in Kansas City tonight as AL ERA leader Kevin Millwood faces part time starter Mike Wood. Kevin's been sawing down batters lately, allowing just seven earned runs in his last five starts. Mike's taken Cleveland to the wood shed so far this season, allowing just one earned run in 10 2/3 innings against the Tribe. Travis Hafner's been applying the wood on offense with home runs in six straight games.

Over in Los Angeles, it's Opie night as Oliver Perez takes on Odalis Perez. On the road, Oliver is giving up a .321 opposition batting average. Opening jitters give Odalis problems this season as hitters are 39 for 125 against him during his first 30 pitches, a .312 batting average.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 23, 2005
Games of the Day

The Cubs are not officially eliminated from the wild card race. If they win all their games, and Houston loses all their games, and the Phillies and Marlins lose most of their games, and ...

THE CUBS CAN STILL TIE FOR THE WILD CARD!

Actually, as far as Houston is concerned, the Cubs so have a great deal of control over their destiny. Starting today, the teams meet seven times over the last nine games. It's fifth starter day this afternoon as Glendon Rusch hosts Wandy Rodriguez. Could you imagine what Chicago would be like if the Cubs staged a comeback while the White Sox were falling out of the race?

Another must sweep series starting today pits the Marlins against the Braves in Atlanta. Florida's playoff hopes are almost gone, four games back in the Wild Card and six back in the division. But they get to play six games vs. the Braves, giving themselves some control over that race. Josh Beckett takes the hill for the Marlins. Beckett is pitching well in September. He's not going deep in games, but he's 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He's striking batters out with 27 in 25 innings. He'll face John Smoltz. Smoltz is pitching on two extra days rest due to a bad shoulder. Smoltz's return to the rotation has been a rousing success. His numbers and durability are great this season. He's 9th in the league in ERA and fifth in inning pitched.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 22, 2005
Games of the Day

It's going to be a Wild afternoon in the National League. A 1 PM EDT lunch at your local Sports Bar will let you watch the Astros play the Pirates and the Phillies challenge the Braves.

Zach Duke takes the mound for Pittsburgh in an effort to gain a split with Houston. Duke took his first loss in his first start since coming off the DL. He pitched poorly in his only start against Houston on August 12th, the first loss the Pirates suffered in one of his starts. Brandon Backe is finishing up his first full season as a starter, and what happened to his strikeouts? He struck out 7.3 per 9 in 2004, 5.8 per 9 this season.

In Atlanta, a good matchup as Jon Leiber faces Tim Hudson. Leiber is on a roll, posting a 1.89 ERA over his last five starts, beating the Marlins twice. At this point in the season, Hudson has pitched 11 fewer innings than last year but has given up 11 more home runs and 15 more walks.

The first place Yankees even the number of games played with the Red Sox today as New York finishes it's series with Baltimore and Boston has the day off. Mike Mussina returns to the rotation against Bruce Chen. Mussina is making his first start since being shutdown after a 6.68 ERA in August. Mussina posted a 3.43 ERA in July. He gave up the same number of hits, walks and homers in August as in July, but in seven fewer innings.

The pitching matchup of the day takes place across town, however, as Dontrelle Willis faces Pedro Martinez. Both teams are pretty much out of the races. The Mets with a win can move back to .500; the Marlins with a win keep their playoff hopes alive another day. Willis batted eighth in his last start; with more injuries, McKeon may have him seventh today. Pedro on the surface had the better season. The two are even in walks allowed, and Pedro gets lots more strike outs (207 to 148) and therefore allows many fewer hits (153-190). But Dontrelle keeps the ball in the park. The opposition hit just 9 home runs off Willis, compared to 19 off Martinez.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2005
Games of the Day

The Twins and Athletics play a noon-time game on the west coast as the A's go for the sweep of the three-game series. Rookie Scott Baker faces Joe Kennedy. Baker is doing well in his first year, posting a 2.87 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance. His best game was his last time out, holding the White Sox to one run over seven innings. He doesn't quite fit into the Twins rotation, however, since he's allowed 11 walks in 37 2/3 innings. That's high for the Twins, but most teams would be very happy with those numbers.

Joe Kennedy's home runs allowed are down a tad since leaving Colorado, but his strike outs are up and his hits allowed are way down. All that means he's cut his ERA in half since joining the Athletics.

A pair of 14-game winners face off in The Bronx tonight as Rodrigo Lopez gets matched against Randy Johnson. Rodrigo's post-break ERA is a run higher than before the All-Star game. His strike outs are way down; 5.7 before the break, 4.5 after. Fewer strike outs lead to more hits and a ballooning ERA. Randy Johnson should be well rested after his tirade in the Toronto game caused the Big Unit to be ejected in the second inning.

In the borough of Queens, Jae Seo of the Mets hosts Jason Vargas and the Marlins. The Marlins are in trouble in the wild card race, three games back with six games against the Braves coming up. Vargas allowed 19 earned runs in his last 22 2/3 innings. Seo was hit by the Nationals his last time out, but he continues to put up great strike out and walk numbers. For the season he's struck out 53 while walking just 10.

Finally, the Indians and White Sox play the rubber game of their series. Scott Elarton opposes Jon Garland. Garland's been up and down lately. Over his last five, he's had great starts alternating with very poor ones. He's coming off eight very strong innings against the Twins. A win tonight gives him 18 on the season and a shot at 20. After a poor August, Elarton's been right on in September. His 1.23 ERA helped him to a 3-0 record, and only one of his 29 home runs allowed came in September.

Enjoy!

You can purchase tickets for these and many other events at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 20, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees look to move into the lead in the AL East tonight with a win over the Orioles and a Red Sox loss to the Devil Rays. John Maine takes the hill for Baltimore, and his weaknesses play into Yankees strengths. He walks a high number of batters and doesn't strike out many. He allows a fair number of home runs. The Yankees take pitches out of the strike zone and pound the ones over the plate. Aaron Small goes for his ninth win against zero defeats. If Small finishes 11-0 with an ERA around 3.00 in 80 innings pitched, does he deserve consideration in the Cy Young voting? Or maybe MVP? Too bad there isn't an award for biggest impact on a pennant race. Small might win that going away.

The Red Sox send Curt Schilling against Seth McClung in Tampa Bay. Schilling's line against Tampa in 2005 pretty much reflects his season as a whole; a decent number of strikeouts, few walks but lots of hits and lots of runs. McClung may be better suited as a reliever. His OBA allowed is 60 points lower in his first 30 pitches than in pitches 31-60.

Philadelphia still has a chance to catch Atlanta, and the two teams open a three-game series tonight in Georgia. For some reason, the Phillies send Gavin Floyd to the mound. Gavin's opposition batting stats look like Cliff Floyd's, so that's good news for Atlanta hitters. Braves' starter Horacio Ramirez did get knocked around by the Phillies his last time out, so this could turn out to be the slugfest of the night.

The White Sox send Mark Buehrle against Jake Westbrook to try to hold off the Indians advance. A great game by Mark tonight will go a long way toward earning votes in the Cy Young race. Westbrook is reaping the rewards of a better Indians offense. With a slightly lower ERA, Jake's record is 9-3 since the break compared to 6-11 before hand.

Enjoy!

Update: I'm told Sosa, not Ramirez will be pitching for the Braves tonight. Sosa's walked 11 Phillies in 15 2/3 innings this year.

Update: I'm told Lidle will go for Philadelphia. That makes a lot more sense. Cory is 2-0 vs. Atlanta and struck out ten Braves in 12 2/3 innings this season.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
September 19, 2005
Game of the Day

No matchup is better tonight than Kevin Millwood vs. Freddy Garcia as the Indians face the White Sox in round one of their battle for the AL Central title.

Millwood leads the American League in ERA but his record is just 8-11. In his last eight starts, Cleveland lost four games in which he allowed 3 runs or fewer. Kevin is keeping his team close, but the Indians offense needs to give him some support to win.

Left-handed batters possess a clear advantage vs. Millwood. In about the same number of at bats, lefties knocked out 20 more hits and drew 10 more walks. The White Sox, however, don't have many lefties to take advantage of this weakness.

One weakness that will work in the White Sox favor is the stolen base. Millwood does not stop stolen bases as opponents succeeded in 30 or 35 attempts vs. Kevin and his catcher.

Freddy Garcia is coming off a blow out loss to the Kansas City Royals. This year, Garcia's pitched his best against the tough competition. His ERAs are high vs. the Devil Rays, Marniers, Royals and Orioles but low against the Yankees, Indians, Twins and Athletics.

One strength these pitchers share is toughness with runners in scoring position. They're 1-2 in the AL in that category, Millwood allowing a .189 batting average, Garcia .203.

If it's going to be tough to drive in men from second and third, solo home runs might decide this game. Garcia's given up more than Millwood, 24 for Freddy, 19 for Kevin. The teams batters are 2-3 in September in hitting home runs, but it's really not that close. The Indians have 30 dingers this month while the White Sox hit 21.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 18, 2005
Games of the Day

The Indians look like they're not going to lose any ground in any of their races today as they send C.C. Sabathia to the mound hosting Jose Lima and the Royals. Lima needs just 6 2/3 innings to qualify for the ERA title and post one of the highest ERAs for any pitcher with at least 162 innings. Lima's given up 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings vs. the Indians this year. Sabathia, on the other hand, is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA vs. the Royals.

Lima is not the only bad pitcher going today. Eric Milton is just 0.11 runs behind Lima, and already has enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. He'll face Oliver Perez. We'll see if Perez can go a few innings without getting thrown out of the game.

The Marlins face a must win game tonight as the Phillies go for a sweep. Philiadelphia sends rookie Eude Brito to the mound. Eude found his groove in his last start vs. the Braves, striking out 7 and walking 1 in six scoreless innings. He'll face Josh Beckett. Josh is tough to hit at home, allowing just a .203 batting average and a .297 slugging percentage. And you'll be able to see in all in HD on ESPN2!

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 17, 2005
Games of the Day

Johan Santana, despite not pitching as well as last season, is still a good candidate for the Cy Young award. His strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed are all very good, he just doesn't have the wins to go with them this season. A great game against the White Sox today would help nudge voters in his direction. He's done some of his best work against the south side Sox this season, going 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA. He's struck out 28 and walked just 3 in 23 1/3 innings against the division rival.

The Marlins try to move back into a tie with the Phillies this afternoon, and the matchup of Vicente Padilla and Dontrelle Willis gives hope to Fish fans. Padilla gave up two homers to the Astros in his last start after giving up just 1 in his previous 50 1/3 innings. Willis is working on a 1.11 ERA over his last 10 starts. Interestingly, he's not striking out a lot of batters, just 5.2 per 9 in that time. He's been pretty unhittable, however, giving up 50 hits in 72 2/3 innings. The Marlins defense is doing a great job behind him.

Whatever you do, don't miss Chacon-Chacin 2, Electric Boogaloo. Shawn was the victor in round one, but Gustavo predicts the I's will have it this time. :-)

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 16, 2005
Games of the Day

Tim Wakefield takes the mound for the Red Sox tonight vs. Oakland's Joe Kennedy. How can Boston fans root against the patriarch? Wakefield was in full control of his knuckle ball in his last two starts, striking out 19 in 17 innings while walking just four.

There seems to be a wild card show down every day in the National League. The Phillies travel to Florida to face the Marlins tonight, both teams 1/2 game back in the wild card standings. Jon Lieber faces Brian Mohler. Lieber is 5-2 in his last eight starts with an outstanding 2.65 ERA. Moehler has not started since August 20th and pitched poorly in relief since then, posting a 6.55 ERA.

The Brewers get to play more than spoilers in the last two weeks of the season as they still have a shot at a Wild Card berth. They get to take the race into their own hands tonight as they start a weekend series with the Astros. Rick Helling came out of nowhere to post a 2-0 record and 2.40 ERA for the Brewers down the stretch. He's yet to allow a home run in 30 innings. He'll face stud or dud Roy Oswalt, coming off a dud of a performance against the Brewers last weekend.

Zach Duke will get a start in one of the Reds-Pirates games today. He's 6-0 with an ERA under 2.00. He hasn't pitched since an injury on August 23rd.

In a strange bit of scheduling, the Nationals spend the weekend in San Diego playing the Padres before returning to Washington to face the Giants. It's an all JP duel as John Patterson takes on Jake Peavy. Patterson is coming off a pounding by the Marlins, while Peavy has 77 K in 69 2/3 innings since the All-Star break.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2005
Games of the Day

The Washington Nationals are hanging on the edge of the Wild Card race, and they'll go for a sweep of the Mets today. It's a good matchup, as Livan Hernandez faces Jae Seo. Livan is giving up many more home runs since the All-Star break, accounting for his 3-4 record in that time. Seo is going for his 8th win in 11 starts. Batters are just 5 for 38 against Jay with runners in scoring position, a .132 batting average.

The Athletics put themselves in a tough spot, losing two out of three to the Indians. They're 3 1/2 back in the wild card race and one back in the West. The weekend favors the Angels, as Oakland plays in Boston and LAnaheim hosts Detroit. Joe Blanton faces Curt Schilling this evening. Red Sox Nation will be watching to see if Schilling can put together two good starts in a row. Meanwhile, Angels' ace Bartolo Colon starts against Mike Maroth and the men from Motor City. Colon's eight game winning streak is on the line, and so is a 20 win season. He's 0-1 against the Tigers this season despite a 2.57 ERA.

In the NL Wild Card race, the Phillies go for a sweep of the Braves and the Astros look for a split with the Marlins. One-half game separate the three clubs. Sosa will face Myers in Philadelphia in a great matchup. Vargas takes the hill against Pettitte in Houston. A Phillies win today means a race for the wild card and the division down the stretch.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2005
Games of the Day

This is one of those great days with twelve hours of baseball. There are so many important games it's tough to list them all. The Cardinals will go for the division title today as they send Jason Marquis against Oliver Perez. Pirates fans can look forward to a pretty good lefty rotation next year with Perez, Duke and Paul Maholm. A win today by the Cardinals for all intents and purposes puts them in the playoffs. A loss by Houston tonight makes it official.

The Mariners go for a sweep of the Angels this afternoon. Except for the weekend pounding of the White Sox, the Angels offense is in the dumps. They've scored 54 runs in their last 16 games, and 22 of those came in the three game weekend series in Chicago.

At seven, the other AL contenders get underway with the Indians and Atheltics playing the rubber game of their match, Tampa Bay tries to beat Wang for the third time this year, and the Red Sox hope the good David Wells shows up in Toronto.

The best pitching matchup of the evening comes at 8 PM EDT when A.J. Burnett matches up vs. Roger Clemens. The Astros, for the first time in the series, have the pitching advantage, and they'll need to score a few runs for Clemens and Pettitte if they are going to earn a split in the series and pass the Marlins again.

Finally, the Rockies and Dodgers meet in Los Angeles as the men in blue try to stay alive in the NL West race. The Rockies send their second Kim to the mound, as Byung-Hyun Kim tries to match the performance of Sunny last night. BK's only one once on the road this season.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 13, 2005
Games of the Day

The Oakland-Cleveland series continues with the Athletics sending Kirk Saarloos against AL ERA leader Kevin Millwood. With Millwood at the top of the ERA leader board, I wondered how much evidence there was for him getting Cy Young consideration. It's turns out very little. Kevin's ERA and record represent a perfect balancing of luck. His DIPS ERA is 4.04, indicating he's been pretty lucky or owes thanks to his defense. His record of 7-11 (talk about luck!) given his ERA points to bad luck in winning games. In this case great ERA + poor record does indicate a pitcher not worth the award.

The Yankees play the Devil Rays this evening, and this game is mostly interesting due to New York's poor record against this lowly team. The best way to illustrate the problem is with walks. On the season, the Yankees have outdrawn their opponents 554-399, better than a walk per game. Against Tampa Bay, however, they've been out walked 57-50. This by the offense with the 2nd lowest total walks in the AL and the pitching staff that issued the most! A big reason for the poor record are the starts by rookies (Wang, Penn) in which the Yankees are 0-5 and four starts by Johnson in which he's had an ERA of 6.56. Shouldn't the Big Unit blow Tampa Bay away every game?

The pitching matchups in the NL Wild Card race favor the Marlins tonight as they send Josh Beckett against Wandy Rodriguez and the Braves pit John Thomson against Gavin Floyd. Wandy's overall record isn't that good, but he's improved since the All-Star break, cutting down on both his walks and home runs allowed. Floyd's problem is control. In the two games he's had it this year he gave the Phillies solid starts. If it's gone, he gets shelled.

Finally, the San Diego Padres try to reach the .500 mark again as they take on the Giants in San Francisco. Noah Lowry takes the hill for the Giants, and he's already allowed five more earned runs this month than he did in all of August. The Padres counter with Brian Lawrence. Brian walk and home run numbers are good, but his lack of strike outs is hurting him as balls in play fall for hits.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 12, 2005
Games of the Day

A tough week for the Oakland Athletics gets underway tonight as they face the Wild Card leading Cleveland Indians. Dan Haren takes the mound against C.C. Sabathia in game one of their three game set. Oakland broke out the offense in Haren's last three starts, scoring thirty runs to win all three games, including the game against the Mariners in which Haren allowed five runs in 2 2/3 innings. Milliliter is on a seven game winning streak and lowered his ERA from 5.16 to 4.35 over that time. The Athletics do hit lefties well, however.

The Marlins and Astros start their four game series this evening with Marlins ace Dontrelle Willis facing Houston's fourth starter Brandon Backe. The rotation for these games appears to be set up for a split, with the matchups favoring Florida in games 1 and 2, Houston in 3 and 4. We'll see if one team can "break service" and change the dynamics of the Wild Card race.

The Astros are weak against left-handed pitchers, and Dontrelle is allowing a meager .239 BA to righties. Backe is a different pitcher at the Juice Box this season, allowing just 19 walks in 54 1/3 innings at home, 43 in 72 innings on the road.

Finally, stay up until about 11 PM EDT to see the return of Barry Bonds to the batter's box. I'm guessing the first pitch from Adam Eaton to be up and in.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 11, 2005
Games of the Day

Today's game against the Marlins is close to a must win for the Phillies. The Marlins travel to Houston tomorrow to start a four game set with the Astros. The Phillies will need the teams to split so they have a shot at gaining on both.

Ismael Valdez faces Jon Lieber this afternoon. Valdez gets hammered by lefties, allowing a .534 slugging percentage to those batters. With up to five lefties in the lineup, this should be a good day for the Phillies hitters. Lieber is back on track after three poor months. Since August 6th, he's posted a 2.85 ERA, averaging just 1 walk per nine innings.

Rick Helling is thrust into the pennant race as he gets the job of trying to defeat Roy Oswalt and the Astros. Rick has kept the ball in the park so far this season, so his eleven walks in 23 innings haven't hurt him badly. Oswalt makes his third start against the Brewers, and despite his 1.20 ERA against the team is just 1-1. He was the victim of one of the many times the Astros scored no runs this season.

The way the playoffs are shaping up right now, the Angels and White Sox get paired in the first round. LAnaheim goes for the sweep of Chicago today as they send John Lackey against Orlando Hernandez. Lately, teams are working Lackey for walks as he's issued 13 free passes in his last four starts. El Duque has almost the same ERA pre and post All-Star Break, 4.88 before and 4.89 after. His record is very different, however, going 7-2 in the first half, 2-5 since. A nice example of luck evening out.

The Indians try to extend their winning streak to seven games tonight on ESPN2. Carlos Silva faces Cliff Lee. Cleveland's done a very good job of putting the ball in play against Silva, striking out just four times in 23 innings. Lee won six of his last ten starts without having a loss pinned on him. He's only allowed five home runs and 15 walks in the 65 and 2/3 innings during the streak.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2005
Games of the Day

Today's filled with compelling matchups. After long evening, the Angels and White Sox get an early start today with Bartolo Colon facing Jon Garland. Colon's back is better so he'll be going for his 19th win. He's 7-0 in his last nine starts, walking only six batters in 66 innings. Garland's been up and down since the start of August, pitching everything from a complete game shutout to allowing eight runs in less than five innings.

The Yankees try once again to cut the Red Sox lead in the AL East with an early game as well. Curt Schilling faces Shawn Chacon. Watching Schilling last Monday it became clear to me that Curt can no longer drive off the mound. When Clemens faced Carpenter last Saturday, the announcer was describing the pitching mechanics of the Cy Young candidates. Roger used his legs to generate speed. Carpenter uses a method described as "tall and fall." He stands tall and lets gravity generate the speed. Schilling used to be the leg driver, but Monday he was falling. Watch today and see if you agree with me.

This afternoon, Clay Hensley gets his first start for the Padres. He's starting in place of Jake Peavy, who has a sore shoulder. Hensely's pitched well out of the bullpen, his zero home runs allowed being his biggest asset. He'll be opposed by Derek Lowe, who's regained his form after a month long slide. Derek's allowed just two earned runs in his last 24 innings.

The NL Wild Card action heats up tonight as the Phillies phace Phlorida in the City of Brotherly Love and the Astros try to get back on the winning track in Milwaukee. The Brewers aren't out of it yet. A win tonight against Andy Pettitte would put them at .500 and no more than five games back in the race.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 09, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees and the Red Sox open up a three game series which is more meaningful than September series between the two rivals the last couple of years. The two teams are within striking distance of each other and the loser of the division may not win the wild card. While the wild card adds excitement among the also rans, it tends to take excitement away from division races, especially if the two best teams in the league are in the same division. That's not going on in the AL East this season. I know people argue that the excitement is transferred to the post season, but that's only if the division rivals meet in the LCS.

Former Yankees pitcher David Wells battles his old team once again this evening. He'll take on wonder pickup Aaron Small. Wells is 45-19 career at Yankee Stadium, 11-4 when he's a visiting pitcher. Small's strength this season is his ability to get lefties out, something that should help vs. the Red Sox. Lefties have a lower batting average and slugging percentage vs. Small than righties, and left-handed batters have not hit a homer off the righty this year.

The wild card leading Indians have a tough game tonight as they host Johan Santana and the Minnesota Twins. This could be the Twins last chance at the wild card, as these three games with Cleveland have the potential to bring them back into the race or leave them in the dust. Santana will face Jake Westbrook. Jake is not walking many nor allowing home runs lately, but the balls opponents are putting in play against him are falling for hits. He's given 46 hits in his last 29 innings.

The Marlins have the chance to send the reeling Phillies out of the wild card race as well. A.J. Burnett will take the hill against Cory Lidle. Lidle's fallen apart in the 2nd half, posting a 1-4 record with an 8.01 ERA. Burnett pitched two good starts against the Phillies this season, but his last one was miserable, allowing four home runs.

Finally, San Diego travels north to LA to square off against the Dodgers. I'll have more on this series and the chances of San Diego winning the division in another post I'm pondering.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 08, 2005
Games of the Day

I'll be heading to Fenway for tonight's game against the Angels. Watch for the Ortiz walk off homer in the ninth. :-)

Tonight is an important game for the Washington Nationals. A win tonight splits the series with the Marlins and keeps them from losing any more ground in the wild card race. They'll send John Patterson to the mound to face Josh Beckett. Patterson's 2.44 ERA is fourth in the NL. His time missed his keeping him out of Cy Young talk, but his strikeout, walk and home run numbers are all impressive. He'll face Josh Beckett. Josh's last three starts are less than impressive. He's allowed 13 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, walking nine.

The Giants return home to face the Chicago Cubs tonight, and once again all eyes are watching to see if Barry Bonds returns to the lineup. On the mound, however, is a very good pitching matchup as Carlos Zambrano faces Noah Lowry. Carlos is on a strike out tear, fanning 40 in his last 38 2/3 innings. Lowry turned his season completely around. He was 5-9 with a 5.07 ERA before the All-Star break, 7-2 with a 1.67 ERA since.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 07, 2005
Games of the Day

Dontrelle Willis goes for win number 20 as the Marlins face John Halama and the Washington Nationals. Willis recovered from his rough patch mid-season and is in control, having walked nine batters in his last five starts. Willis does well against this franchise, going 7-2 with a 2.59 ERA against the Montreal and Washington editions of this team.

The Marlins will be trying to keep pace with the Astros and stay ahead of the Phillies. Those two teams are finishing up a pitcher's duel of a series. Just 10 runs were scored in the first two games. There might be a few more tonight as Backe faces Padilla.

And once again, we'll keep our eye out for Barry Bonds as the Giants and Dodgers meet again in Los Angeles. Jason Schmidt faces Jeff Weaver. The Giants won Jason's last six starts, with Schmidt getting a decision in five of those. His main strength during the streak is allowing just two home runs. That keeps the walks from hurting him too much.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 06, 2005
Games of the Day

The Angles fly into Boston to open a three game series with the Red Sox in a possible preview of post-season pairings. I'll be in section 14 tonight at Fenway, so stop by and say hi if you're at the game. On the mound, John Lackey takes on Tim Wakefield. Lackey found a way to strike out more hitters this season and lowered his ERA a full run. Wakefield is coming off a month where his ERA was high, but he was able to ride the Red Sox wave to offense to a 5-1 record.

This series is the Angels pitching vs. the Red Sox offense. Both are very good, and we'll get to see first hand if good pitching stops good hitting.

Houston continues its series at Philadelphia with Roy Oswalt facing Jon Lieber. Some bad new from last night's win; Andy Pettitte was hit by a ball and his foot swelled. It's not clear if he'll miss a start with the injury. Oswalt is throwing lots of pitches early in the game lately, putting pressure on the bullpen. In his last start, he pitched well but was out in the sixth inning after reaching the century mark in throws. Lieber is pitching well down the stretch. He's only had one bad start in his last six games, but was shutout twice.

Finally, we'll keep an eye on the Giants-Dodgers game as the Giants try to make a late run at the division title. There's a chance Barry Bonds will be back tonight.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
September 05, 2005
Games of the Day

The NL Wild Card offers the best matchups today. Florida makes its way to the nation's capital as Jason Vargas faces Livan Hernandez. Vargas pitched poorly in three of his last four starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 25 innings on 29 hits. Livan is coming off a poor August in which he posted a 6.69 ERA.

The Astros meet the Phillies tonight, the game deciding first place in the Wild Card for a day. It's a great pitching matchup as Brett Myers hosts Andy Pettitte. Myers just turned 25, and his big leap this season is due to his increasing his strike out rate. From 2002-2004 he struck out 6.0 batters per nine innings. This season, it's up to 8.4 per nine. Andy Pettitte might be a serious Cy Young candidate if it weren't for his teammate, Roger Clemens. Pettitte ranks fourth in the NL in ERA at 2.50. This year, he's been most effective later in the game. The opposition is hitting .259 on his first 45 pitches, .220 after that.

Enjoy!


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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 04, 2005
Game of the Day

Last Wednesday, the Mets looked in good shape to make their move in wild card race. They took game one of the series with the Phillies and had Pedro Martinez on the mound for game two. The Phillies spanked Pedro, and the Mets find themselves in a four game losing streak, 3 1/2 games back in the wild card race and last in the NL East. Today, the Mets send their best pitcher of the last month, Jae Seo against A.J. Burnett of the Marlins. Seo was 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA in August. Burnett is coming off a poor outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed 12 base runners in five innings on six hits and six walks.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 03, 2005
Game of the Day

This is the pitching matchup of the year. Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals are in Houston to face Roger Clemens and the Astros. I don't know how many times a single game decided the Cy Young award, but this could be it.

Here's the race as I see it. Clemens is having one of the great pitching seasons of all-time. His road ERA is 0.52. Since 1974, the next best road ERA (min 81 innings) belongs to Greg Maddux in 1995, 1.12, .7 runs higher! Clemens has only allowed 8 home runs all year. He just turned 42 and he's striking out batters at a rate of 8.2 per 9. Opponents OPS is .505! You couldn't play A ball with that kind of offense.

What Clemens hasn't done is win. The Astros were shutout in eight of his starts. Remember, this isn't a like a bunch of 3-2 losses were you had a chance to win if you pitched a little better. These are eight games where the best Roger could do was a no-decision. In those shutouts Clemens pitched 58 innings and allowed five earned runs. That's an 0.78 ERA. Clemens kept the Astros sorry offense in everyone of those games.

Then you have Carpenter, a great pitcher with a team loaded with offense. Even when everyone is injured, they have Albert Pujols, easily the greatest young player in the game. As a result, Carpenter has 19 wins going into tonight's contest.

And the two are closer than their ERAs indicate. Carpenter strikes out about the same number of batter per nine as Clemens while walking fewer. His fourteen homers allowed are still a very low number. And a big advantage is that Carpenter is able to start what he finishes. Each pitcher started 27 games so far this season, but Carpenter has six complete games to Clemens' 1.

So the voters have two worthy Cy Young candidates going head-to-head late in the season. Those voters on the fence can point to the result of this game as the reason to go one way or another. Unfortunately, it's not on the Extra-Innings package, and Fox doesn't appear to have a game scheduled for today. Maybe Fox should do a special and send a crew to Houston for tonight's contest.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 02, 2005
Games of the Day

Any game between NL East rivals is going to be important at this point. Tonight, the Phillies open a series in Washington and the Mets travel to Florida.

Since the start of August, the Phillies have gotten tremendous production from Abreu and Burrell, each with OBAs over .400 and slugging percentages over .500. They each have 22 RBI over that time period. The Nationals have hit Philadelphia well this season. They've outhomered them 13-5, but each team scored 50 runs in their 13 contests and Philadelphia leads the season series 7-6.

The Mets send Victor Zambrano against Dontrelle Willis in Miami. Willis is going for his 19th win and is the only reliable starter as of late for the Marlins. Dontrelle is 6-1 career vs. the Mets with a 2.04 ERA. His only loss came in May of this year.

The Twins get a chance to climb back into the Wild Card race as the open a three game series against the Indians. Former Indians ace C.C. Sabathia faces hard luck pitcher Brad Radke. Milliliter may be returning to form. He's allowed 7 earned runs in his last 27 innings. Radke has two wins in his last five starts, although the Twins won all those games.

Finally, a big wild card game on the west coast as the Yankees visit the Oakland Athletics. It could be that the A's have no hope without Crosby. The Athletics are 53-24 when Bobby plays, 22-34 without the young shortstop.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 01, 2005
Games of the Day

There's a good pitching matchup in Houston tonight as Aaron Harang faces Roy Oswalt. Harang is part of the resurgent Reds team that has one of the best records in baseball since the break. He's only allowed 2 runs in his last 14 innings pitched. Oswalt's been human lately with a 6.38 ERA over his last four starts.

The slugfest of the day goes to the Baltimore-Toronto game. A couple of months ago, this game looked like it would be an important one for the AL East race. Instead, tune in and watch hitters light up Hayden Penn and Dustin McGowen. Both have ERAs over 6.00.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 31, 2005
Games of the Day

With a win tonight against the Phillies, the Mets could find themselves leading the NL Wild Card race. New York will have their ace on the mound, Pedro Martinez as they host Phillies hurler Brett Myers. Brett's only had one good outing in August, a complete game victory against the Pirates. Otherwise, he's been quite hittable, allowing six home runs and a 5.01 ERA in the month.

Pedro is working on two straight six inning starts without allowing a run. He's pitched well against Philadelphia this season, winning both his starts and allowing just three runs in 13 innings.

On the west coast, Joe Blanton and John Lackey faced off as the Athletics and Angels battle for the AL West title. Blanton is on a roll, with an ERA of 1.00 over his last seven starts. With little support, however, his record is just 3-1. He's only given up 31 hits in his last 45 innings and overall the league is hitting just .237 against him. Lackey continues to stay near the top of the AL in strikeouts per nine innings. He and Johan Santana are the only qualifying starters above 9.0.

Finally, the past and the future meet in Seattle as Randy Johnson faces Felix Hernandez. It's been over six years since Johnson pitched in Seattle. His only start as an opponent in that city yielded a gem of a game. The new Seattle fireballer is already striking out better than nine per nine innings, and unlike the young Randy Johnson, this pitcher has control of the strikezone.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 30, 2005
Games of the Day

I'd like to apologize for not getting this up sooner, but due to technical difficulties the site was down most of the day. I've been away from a computer since 12:30 Eastern Time, so this is my first chance to update.

So short and sweet, watch the Phillies at the Mets with Tejada and Seo, Nationals at Braves with Patterson and Sosa, Dodgers at Cubs with Penny and Prior, Athletics at Angels with Zito vs. Colon and Diamondbacks at Padres with Vazquez and Peavy.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 29, 2005
Games of the Day

The Arizona Diamondbacks get a chance to gain ground on the Padres as the two teams go head-to-head in San Diego tonight. It might even be a high scoring game as Russ Ortiz faces Woody Williams, both pitchers with ERAs over five. The Diamondbacks currently trail San Diego by 5 1/2 games. Arizona leads the season series 7-6, although the Padres have outscored them 64-61.

There's an excellent pitching matchup in Florida as Chris Carpenter goes for his 19th win vs. A.J. Burnett of the Marlins. The Cardinals won the last 13 starts by Carpenter, and in 8 of those the team has allowed 1 run or less. Burnett had a personal seven game winning streak snapped by the Brewers his last time out. Marlins starters have given up 45 hits and 26 runs (20 earned) in their last six starts, 33 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 28, 2005
Games of the Day

The LAnaheim Angels could go from first in the West to second in the wild card today. They'll face the Devil Rays, who have the best record in the AL East since the All-Star break. Mark Hendrickson throws for the Rays. Tampa Bay has won four of his last five starts, losing the best pitched game of the five. Jarrod Washburn will try to keep the Angels in first. Washburn has a 3.46 ERA over his last six starts, but the Angels have scored just 1 run in three of those.

The Oakland Athletics can knock them out of first place with a win over the Orioles, the team with the worst record in the AL East since the break. Danny Haren faces John Maine. Haren is coming off two poor starts. Even though he didn't issue any walks in the two games, he allowed 18 hits in 12 1/3 innings.

Looking to pass one or both of those teams is the New York Yankees. They'll go for the sweep of the Royals today as Al Leiter host Zach Greinke. Greinke's been inconsistent at best. A great start is often followed by a blow out. You just never know when the 21-year-old will have his good stuff. Leiter made his best start for the Yankees last time out, showing good control for once. He's been giving the Yankees five or six innings, allowing three runs, good enough for this team to win.

There are lots of great pitchers hurling today as well. Johan Santana, Roger Clemens, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Josh Beckett and Carlos Zambrano are all in action this afternoon. Noah Lowry faces Kris Benson as Noah goes for pitcher of the month.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2005
Games of the Day

It a battle of generations in Chicago this afternoon as Dontrelle Willis faces Greg Maddux at Wrigley. The youngster goes for his 18th win and he's been nearly unbeatable in day game this season, going 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA. At 4.56, Maddux is posting his highest ERA since 1987.

The Indians try to put another nail in the Blue Jays playoff coffin today. Toronto was in a great position to lift themselves into the playoff picture, but lost seven of their last eight, with four of those losses at the hands of wild card leaders New York and Cleveland. They'll face Kevin Millwood. Kevin's received poor run support this season; the Indians have scored 66 runs with him on the mound while Kevin allowed 58. He's been especially hurt by this at home where he has a 3.24 ERA but a 2-7 record.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 26, 2005
Games of the Day

The Washington Nationals are hanging in the wild card race with the rest of the NL East. They'll have a big test tonight as they host the St. Louis Cardinals. Jeff Suppan faces Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza is helped by RFK, but not in the home run department. He's pitched just about the same number of innings home and road, allowing 8 homers in Washington vs. seven away. The big difference is hits allowed. Twenty-eight fewer hits have fallen in at RFK against the righty. Couple that with 12 fewer walks, and you have an ERA almost two runs lower at home. Suppan is coming off three good starts in which he's allowed 3 earned runs in 20 innings. He's only allowed one home run in that time.

It's an all-Hernandez night in Seattle as the White Sox take on the Mariners. Orlando Hernandez challenges the 19-year-old fireballer Felix Hernandez. Orlando's only won one game since the All-Star Break, despite lowering his ERA. Felix is wowing the baseball world with his ability to strike out batters and his control. He's yet to allow an extra-base hit. His BA, OBA and Slugging percentage allowed are all under .200.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 25, 2005
Games of the Day

It's a good day to take the afternoon off and watch baseball. All six daylight games have wild card and division implications.

The long awaited Chacin-Chacon matchup takes place in the Bronx this afternoon. Gustavo Chacin is coming off three straight no-decisions. He's going through a bit of a rough patch in August, as he did in may. In each month, his walks equaled his strikeouts. Shawn Chacon's slugging percentage allowed is 100 points lower since joining the Yankees.

Jon Garland faces Carlos Silva in the rubber game of the White Sox-Twins series. Garland is looking to tie Bartolo Colon, who picked up his 17th win last night. The White Sox have lost 4 of Garland's last five starts. Garland's posted a 4.41 ERA in that stretch, but pitched well in three of the games. Sliva is making the Greg Maddux of the mid-90's look like a wild man. Silva's only walked 8 batters this season.

Get to the Cardinals-Pirates game early to see the undercard. You'll also get to see the best team in the NL.

Curt Schilling returns to the lineup tonight for the rubber game of the Boston-Kansas City series. It's amazing that the Red Sox managed to lose a 11-inning squeaker 4-3 last night. The two bullpens put together eight scoreless innings before a walk, single, walk and sac fly ended the game in KC's favor. I wonder which way Bill James is rooting?

Finally, Pedro Martinez gets to see if the Mets can score 10+ runs for him as he goes for his 13th win against the Diamondbacks tonight. He'll be opposed by former New Yorker Javier Vazquez. Pedro's yet to win in August, despite leaving his last start with an 8-0 lead. In each game, either his offense or bullpen failed him. Vazquez can't find a middle ground. In his last eight starts, he's either been brilliant or terrible.

Enjoy!


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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 24, 2005
Games of the Day

A good pitching matchup this afternoon in Chicago as Jorge Sosa faces Mark Prior. There's also a good triple crown matchup between Derrek Lee and Andruw Jones. Right now, it's Jones that is in first place in two of the three categories, home runs and RBI. It's unlikely that he'll raise his .272 BA high enough to take the crown. Lee only has 2 RBI in his last 10 games and is no longer in the top five in that category.

Chris Carpenter goes for win number 18 tonight in Pittsburgh. Kip Wells will try to hand Carpenter his fifth loss. Carpenter is 9-0 on the road this year with a 1.93 ERA. I looked to see where that ranks in relation to Clemens, and Roger has an 0.56 mark on the road. Any way you slice it, Roger is ahead of Chris for the NL Cy Young Award.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2005
Games of the Day

Zach Duke faces a tough test tonight as he faces the St. Louis Cardinals. The undefeated rookie, however, may be shelved soon. The Pirates are worrying about pushing him too much. He's already pitched more innings than in any season of his career.

It seems to me he's going to need to go 200 innings at some point. He's 22 years old; that's young, but he should be done growing. The Cubs were very careful with Mark Prior, it should be remembered, and he's wound up getting injured frequently anyway. I understand the Pirates wanting to preserve this rare resource, but it would be a shame to miss seeing him pitch the rest of the season.

The White Sox visit Minnesota this evening. Freddy Garcia faces Johan Santana in the AL pitching matchup of the day. The Twins have picked up five games over the their last 10, going 8-2 to the White Sox 3-7. They can reduce the gap between them and Chicago under double digits with a win tonight.

Santana's been back to his old self in his last two starts, striking out 19 batters and walking just 2 in 17 1/3 innings. Garcia has thrived on the road this year, posting a 9-1 record and a 2.58 ERA, third in the AL.

Power and control will be on display in San Diego as the 2005 NL ERA leader faces the 2004 NL ERA leader. Roger Clemens had his worst outing of the year last Thursday, allowing five runs in 6 1/3 innings. Still, his ERA is 1.53. Peavy is leading the majors in strikeouts per 9 and walks just over 2 per game.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2005
Games of the Day

For those looking for a little afternoon delight, the Dodgers and Marlins finish up their series as Dontrelle Willis goes for his 17th win. But since my Aunt Frances' birthday, Dontrelle has posted a 0.49 ERA, although his record is just 3-2.

The Toronto Blue Jays open an important four game series with the Yankees tonight. Toronto was in the thick of the wild card race when they were swept by the Tigers. With the Athletics losing two of three to the Royals over the weekend, the Blue Jays are still just five games back from first, 4 1/2 from the Yankees. Scott Downs takes the hill for the Blue Jays. Since moving to a starting role, Downs strikeouts have gone up. He struck out 15 in 25 innings as a reliever, but 24 in 24 2/3 innings as a starter. Jaret Wright makes his 2nd start since coming off the DL. He struck out two in 6 1/3 innings in his first outing. When his K level approach those of his 2004 season, I'll be willing to believe Wright is back.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 21, 2005
Games of the Day

The Mets can pass the Nationals today and move Washington into last place in the tight NL East with a win this afternoon. Kris Benson hosts Esteban Loaiza. The Nationals have scored four runs or less in each of Loaiza's last six starts. They've only allowed 5 runs in one of those, but have a 1-5 record in those games. Benson uses Shea to cover his weakness with the long ball. He's allowed 11 home runs in 50 2/3 innings on the road, just three dingers in 78 1/3 innings at Shea.

The Yankees send Randy Johnson to the mound to try to extend the White Sox losing streak to eight games. New York also sits 1/2 game behind the Athletics in the wild card chase, so a win this afternoon could put them back in front. Former Yankee Jose Contreras takes the hill for Chicago. Contreras shut the Yankees down for seven innings on August 9th, propelling Chicago to their penultimate victory 2-1. Johnson is making his 2nd start since skipping a turn in the rotation. The rest paid off against the Devil Rays; we'll see if it continues against the reeling White Sox.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 20, 2005
Games of the Day

Two pitchers with good ERAs but poor records face off in Florida today. Brad Penny pitches for the Dodgers against Brian Moehler of the Marlins. Moehler is now the sometimes fifth starter as McKeon is using days off to get more starts out of his big three. Moehler is just 1-6 at home despite a 3.01 ERA. Penny beat the Mets 2-1 his last time out, but he only allowed 1 run over seven innings in his previous start and a poor bullpen performance cost him the game.

The Twins have picked up six games on the White Sox as the two clubs have opposite six game streaks. Minnesota will be challenged tonight as Kyle Lohse host Felix Hernandez. The young strikeout king is going longer in games than most seasoned veterans. He's able to do it by being efficient. In his last two starts he's pitched 16 innings while throwing just 193 pitches, just 12 per inning. That's Maddux like.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 19, 2005
Games of the Day

The early game in Colorado should be an interesting pitching matchup. Mark Prior spins for the Cubs against Byung-Hyun Kim. Kim is a pitcher who can strike batters out at Coors. His record there this year is 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA, but better than his road mark. Prior has pitched poorly on the road this season, posting a 5.59 ERA and allowing many more hits. This could be a tough game for the Cubs.

Division leaders meet in Atlanta as Chan Ho Park and the Padres face Mike Hampton and the Braves. The Padres returned to 2 games under .500 with their loss last night but still have a three game lead in their division. They're trying to give away the division but no other team seems willing to take it.

The Yankees visit the south side of Chicago to face the White Sox. Last week, the two teams hooked up in a very low scoring series in which the White Sox took two of three. Chicago outscore New York 6-5 in the three games. Tonight should be a good duel as Mike Mussina takes on Jon Garland. Mussina's been a crap shoot this season. You'll get great starts like the one against the White Sox on the 8th, or poor ones like his start in Cleveland on August 3. Garland's making his 2nd try for his 17th win. His big improvement this season is the reduction of home runs allowed. He gave up 34 in 2004, only 17 so far this season.

Finally, some team's losing streak will end in Oakland tonight. They Athletics send Rich Harden to the mound to stop their four game streak, while the Royals counter with Mike Wood in an effort to end their 18 game skid. This is Wood's third start of the season. The good news is that he's only walked one batter in his two other starts. The bad news is that he's allowed 16 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Oakland lost the last three games Harden started, although he pitched well enough to win two of them. He's coming off a particularly tough loss against the Twins in which he allowed just one run over eight innings.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2005
Games of the Day

A huge double header in Philadelphia today as the Nationals and Phillies make up the rain out from the other day. Armas and Padilla are scheduled to face each other in game 1 with Drese and Lidle taking the mound in game two. If either team sweeps they'll be guaranteed at least a share of the wild card lead. The Nationals have out-homered the Phillies in their head-to-head matchups 13-4. Despite that, the Phillies lead the season series 6-5.

The Padres and Marlins compete in the pitching matchup of the day as Jake Peavy faces Josh Beckett. Peavy never seems to tire. If you look at his splits by pitch count, he never goes through a bad stretch. Beckett is a different pitching at home. Opponents are slugging just .296 against him at Dolphin Stadium vs. .400 on the road.

The Red Sox face the Angles in a possible post-season preview. Tim Wakefield faces Bartolo Colon. The real stars of this game are the power hitters, Vlad, Manny and Ortiz. It's tough to determine who is the best hitter among the three. Ortiz and Manny are more selective, but Vlad makes up for the lack of walks with hits. Their slugging percentages are within 5 points of each other. The difference in RBI is bases on the Red Sox putting on lots more base runners for Manny and Ortiz.

Don't forget that Roger Clemens and Zach Duke are pitching tonight, trying to continue their great seasons.

Enjoy!

Correction: Fixed the Phillies record against the Nationals.

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 17, 2005
Games of the Day

The Seattle Mariners extended the Royals losing streak to 17 games last night, but Kansas City won't get much time to think about it as they come back this afternoon to try to break the losing streak. D.J. Carrasco will attempt to spin a win vs. ageless lefty Jamie Moyer. The two sport nearly identical ERAs, but Moyer is 9-4 while Carrasco has won 5 and lost 6. Carrasco has walked almost as many as he's struck out, 40 BB to 41 K. Moyer's been unbeatable at home, posting a 6-0 record and a 2.87 ERA at Safeco.

Two great pitching matchups come up under the lights. In Houston, Zambrano of the year runner-up Carlos faces the Astros' Roy Oswalt. Zambrano is posting a 1.06 ERA in August and has not allowed a home run in three starts in the month. Oswalt is 10-1 at home with an ERA about .7 runs lower than on the road.

The other matchup pits Johan Santana vs. Mark Buehrle. The Twins took the first two games of this series and are now just five games out of the wild card. In his last four starts, Santana faced the Athletics, Red Sox and Yankees and the Twins took away three wins. The White Sox are just 3-5 in Buehrle's last eight starts, including a loss to the Royals. Buehrle's ERA in that period is 4.33, and he's only striking out 4.0 per 9.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 16, 2005
Games of the Day

Randy Johnson returns to the mound after a nine-day layoff to face the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Johnson pitched two poor games before being given a short vacation. Randy's been knocked around by the DRays this year, giving up 12 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings while striking out 11. While walking just one, he's allowed five homers to the bay side bombers.

I'm not sure how to call the Royals-Mariners game tonight. Given the ERAs of Greinke and Pineiro, you might think it will be a slugfest. But given the the two poor offenses involved, it could easily be a pitching duel. Greinke is just giving up a ton of hits, which is not surprising given that the Royals have the worst defensive efficiency rating in the AL. He's probably a better pitcher than his ERA indicates. Pineiro's main problem is the 20 home runs he's allowed.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 15, 2005
Games of the Day

The Nationals and Phillies face off in a wild card showdown this evening. Philadelphia trails the Astros by 1/2 game, and Washington is 1/2 game behind Philadelphia. Iron man Livan Hernandez takes the hill for the Nationals. After pitching in hard luck for most of July, Hernandez deserved his last two losses, giving up 9 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings on 22 hits and six walks. Brett Myers throws for Philadelphia. He has an interesting record at home where he's 7-1 despite a 4.14 ERA. On the road, he's just 3-4 with a great 2.67 ERA.

Toronto is still holding on to wild card hopes. They're six games behind the Athletics, and face the LAnaheim Angels tonight in the start of three game series. Gustavo Chacin continues to have a fine season, posting a 3.39 ERA. He's kept the ball in the park on the road, allowing just 3 of his 13 homers away from Skydome. He'll face Ervin Santana. Ervin's been magic since the break, posting a 3-1 record and a 2.59 ERA. It's not clear why he's been better since the break, except that many fewer hits are dropping in against him.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 14, 2005
Games of the Day

It's a tough choice for best pitching matchup of the day, but I'm going with Minnesota at Oakland. Carlos Silva pitched well over his last five starts but has no wins to show for it. The Twins only managed one in those starts. He's given up a home run in each start and 21 on the season to go with his 8 walks allowed. The A's lost Harden's last two starts. Although Rich gave up 8 earned runs in his last 12 2/3 innings, he's struck out 16. That indicated to me the last two games are just bad luck.

Pedro Martinez returns to where it all started, Los Angeles to face the Dodgers and Brad Penny. Pedro is coming off a rough start in San Diego after two tough luck losses. In five starts since the All-Star break he has a 4.09 ERA, mostly due to that last start. Penny is pitching better than his 5-7 record indicates. He's allowed 53 runs while his team has scored 72 while he's been in the game. Poor bullpen support?

Finally, the Cardinals and Cubs finish up their four game series with Matt Morris facing Mark Prior. Derrek Lee's done a good job in this series holding off the advance of Albert Pujols as both are in triple crown contention. Lee now has a 10 point lead in the batting race on Albert, and Pujols has a 4 RBI lead on Derrek. Lee trails Andruw Jones by two home runs, Pujols trails by four.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 13, 2005
Games of the Day

The White Sox and Red Sox continue their series at Fenway Park this evening. Jon Garland goes for his 17th win, and Tim Wakefield vies for number 12. Garland is equally good this year vs. lefties and righties, at least allowing them to reach base. The few home runs he's allowed have mostly come from lefties. Wakefield has an amazing left/right split for a right-handed pitcher. Lefties are hitting just .192 against Tim, while righties check in with a .292 BA. The averages for OBA and slugging show similar differences.

It's really unfair to throw a pitcher like Roger Clemens against a team like the Pirates. Then again, it's unfair to throw Clemens against any club at this point. Consider that Clemens had just one bad outing this season, a game against the Cardinals in which he gave up four runs in five innings. That start occurred right in the middle of his 23 starts. In the eleven starts before that he was 3-3 with a 1.30 ERA. In the eleven starts since he's 7-1 with a 1.08 ERA! Roger's allowed so few extra base hits that his slugging percentage allowed in just eleven points higher than his OBA allowed! It's a season for the ages.

Enjoy!


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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
August 12, 2005
Games of the Day

A possible playoff preview in Boston this evening as the White Sox send Mark Buehrle to face David Wells. The White Sox just shut down the Yankees for three game and will try to do the same to the Red Sox. By allowing very few walks, Buehrle reduces a team's OBA to its batting average. In the case of the Red Sox, that's still very good. Boston is batting .313 in the month of August and .283 overall. Wells reduces an offense to its batting average as well. However, the balls put in play against David seem to be better at finding holes and fly farther.

The Pirates visit the Astros and send their pitching phenom, Zach Duke to the mound vs. Roy Oswalt in the duel of the night. The Astros took two out of three from Washington to put the Nationals three games back in the wild card race, and playing Pittsburgh this weekend gives them a chance to further solidify the lead. Duke had a relatively poor outing vs. the Dodgers his last time out, giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings. But he still managed to strike out six while walking just two. The Astros lost Oswalt's last two starts. Roy's strikeouts were low in those two games, just seven in thirteen innings.

Philadelphia, just 2 1/2 games behind the Astros, travels to San Diego to face the rejuvenated Padres. Jon Lieber hurls for the Phillies. Since his 5-1 start, he's 5-9 with a 6.25 ERA. He's really been hurt by the long ball, giving up 19 home runs in his last 95 innings, 1.8 per 9. Jake Peavy takes the mound for the Padres. Jake's only allowed 14 home runs all season.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 11, 2005
Games of the Day

Rafael Palmeiro returns to the game this evening as the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. There's a good possibility he won't play. One Baltimore writer is advising fans to stay away from the park tonight. There will be no news conference.

Many people are rightly upset with Palmeiro. Some are using his dishonesty to show that the 10-day suspension isn't enough. I disagree. Palmeiro's case is different because he so adamantly denied use. We're more upset at the lying than the use of the substance. The ten day suspension is an appropriate warning shot, especially to the young players. They see how the the media has gone from celebrating Palmeiro to treating him as a pariah. In one day he went from first ballot Hall of Famer to maybe never. That's a powerful message.

If you're looking for real baseball action, you might head to Texas where the Nationals and Astros play the rubber game of their series. It's close to a must win for Washington as they trail Houston by two games in the wild card race. Tony Armas faces Andy Pettitte. Armas is having control problems right now. He's walked 12 in his last 20 innings. Pettitte finally took a loss in his last outing when the Astros offense was shutout. He hasn't pitched a poor game since June 14th.

The Angels and Athletics split the first two games of their series, and winner tonight takes home the division lead. It's the battle of the B's as Paul Byrd faces Joe Blanton. The Angels and Athletics are two very close teams in terms of offense and pitching. The Angels have an edge in pitching, the A's in hitting. Both teams are great at putting the ball in play, ranking 13th and 14th in strikeouts. The A's have just two more hits than the Angels, but have outscored them by 27 runs. Why? The Athletics walked 92 more times. The Athletics realize the value of Scioscia's dictum to get the bat on the ball. But unlike the Angels, they understand that it's easier to put the bat on balls in the strike zone.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 10, 2005
Games of the Day

The only good thing about Kenny Rogers returning to pitch today is that he has to face Boston fans. I suspect they'll be very vocal against Mr. Rogers, and might even come up with an appropriate nickname for the lefty. The other good thing is that he has to face the Boston lineup, which might raise his ERA a bit.

Two teams trying to stay in contention send two good, young pitchers to the mound this evening as Arizona faces Florida. Brad Halsey starts for the Diamondbacks. He's pitched well over his last six starts, going 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA, allowing just 1 home run. Jason Vargas is off to a 2-0 start for his career. He's struck out 14 in 17 2/3 innings, leading to a .161 opponents batting average. He has walked eight, however, so his control needs a bit of work.

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 09, 2005
Games of the Day

Two important games today that will help decide division and wild card races. The Nationals travel to the Juice Box to take on the NL wild card leading Houston Astros. Since the All-Star break, these teams have gone in very separate directions. The Nationals are 6-17, the worst record in the NL, while the Astros are 16-8, the best in the league. Jon Patterson faces Ezequiel Astacio. Patterson is Washington's best starter. Although you don't hear his name mentioned in the Cy Young race, Patterson is third in the NL in ERA. He hasn't lost at home this season, but he also hasn't won on the road. Astacio doesn't go deep in his starts, but he's pitched very well lately, lowering his ERA 4 1/2 runs in his last four outings.

It's an A+ matchup on the west coast as the Angels and Athletics battle for first place in Oakland. John Lackey takes the hill for LAnaheim against Rich Harden. Lackey is on a roll since the Angels gave him extended time off around the all-star break. He's 3-0 in four starts with a 1.33 ERA in that time, and struck out 33 batters in 27 innings. Harden is extremely effective vs. left-handed batters this year. Lefties have a lower slugging percentage against Rich (.260) than their OBA (.260)!

Enjoy!

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 08, 2005
Games of the Day

The Marlins make a special trip to Denver to makeup two games in one day. It's Kim day at Coors, as Sunny Kim and Byung-Hyun Kim are scheduled to start for the Rockies. This will be Sun Woo Kim's first start for the Rockies. It should be somewhat bothersome to Colorado management that S. Kim had a 10.38 ERA in Washington this season.

Byung-Hyun Kim, on the other hand, is pitching very well in Coors this season. He has a 4.11 ERA at home, and has struck out 47 in 50 1/3 innings there. It seems to me the way to be effective in Coors is to get a lot of strikeouts, preventing balls in play. The strikeout is difficult to get, however, because balls don't break well in the thin air. The unorthodox delivery of B. Kim could be making all the difference.

The big game of the night finds the Chicago White Sox visiting the Bronx as baseball's best team. They'll send ex-Yankee Orlando Hernandez against Mike Mussina. Hernandez's record is somewhat clouded by his home park. On the road, he's posted a 5-1 record and a 3.61 ERA. Opponents OBA is 60 points lower on the road, and their slugging percentage is 100 points lower. Mussina's done his best work at Yankee Stadium this season, posting a 3.03 ERA there vs. 4.97 on the road. For some reason, Mussina gives up many fewer hits in New York.

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 07, 2005
Games of the Day

A nice pitching matchup in Washington this afternoon as Jake Peavy faces Esteban Loaiza. Peavy's pitching with a bruised finger, so he may come out of the game early. He's striking out over five times as many batters as he's walking, and lately it's been higher than that. In his last two starts he's struck out 19 and walked just 2. Loaiza saw the Nationals lose his last three starts. He's pitched well, however, posting a 3.60 ERA and striking out eleven while walking just 2.

Al Leiter returns to Skydome in what may be his last start for the Yankees. After his initial game against the Red Sox, Leiter has not pitched well. He has a 6.05 ERA with New York and is striking out less batters than he's walking. The Yankees are being supportive, but if he has another bad outing today, I don't see how they can keep him in the rotation if Pavano comes back.

The Braves and Cardinals finish up their three game series today with Jorge Sosa facing Chris Carpenter. Both have ERAs in the twos. Sosa, likely to wrest the coveted "Sosa of the Year" award from Sammy, improved since making the transition from reliever to starter. He's 5-1 in his new role, posting a 2.55 ERA. The Braves won his last seven starts. Sosa doesn't go deep in those games, but his five or six innings of work in that time gave him a 2.15 ERA.

The Cardinals last lost a game Chris Carpenter started on June 8th. He's posted a 0.83 ERA in that stretch while winning games by the scores of 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 as well as a few blowouts.

Carpenter would be the leading Cy Young candidate except for Roger Clemens. The Rocket takes on the Giants this afternoon, a team that found a way to shut down the Astros offense. He'll face Brett Tomko, who's pitching better of late. In July and August he's posted a 3.48 ERA and only allowed 3 homers.

Finally, the matchup we've all been waiting for. I'm not sure ESPN HD can do it justice. Carlos Zambrano faces Victor Zambrano for title of World's greatest Zambrano. One would think the Cubs' ace would have a lock on the title. He's 42-33 for his career with a 3.25 ERA. Victor, is closer than you think, with a 42-36 career mark but a 4.40 ERA. Will Victor be victorious, or will Carlos carry the day?

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 06, 2005
Games of the Day

The Pirates send Zach Duke to the mound against Odalis Perez and the Dodgers this afternoon. Duke is off to an impressive start for his career and won NL Rookie of the Month in July. (These awards are starting to proliferate. Next thing you know there will be an award for the player with the most awards. :-)) Duke's had his share of luck so far as the opposition is just 3 for 26 against him with runners in scoring position.

The Twins try to build on their blowout of the Red Sox last night, sending Johan Santana against David Wells in a battle of lefties. Wells put together five solid starts starting July 7th, going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in that time. Santana's strikeouts are down over his last five starts. At 5.8 per 9 IP, that's well below his career average of 9.6. It makes me wonder if there is some injury problem?

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 05, 2005
Games of the Day

Toronto opens an important three game series at Skydome this evening with the Yankees. The Blue Jays keep staying at the edge of the pennant race; close enough that a streak can move them up, far enough back that you don't know if they're for real. They've been consistently near .500 all year. Trailing the Yankees by 2 1/2 games in the wild card race (5 1/2 back of Oakland), they have a chance to pass New York this weekend.

Aaron Small faces Gustavo Chacin this evening in the first game of the series. Small's sample size is too small to say anything definitive, but he's won both his starts although he was not overly impressive in either. He's the opposite of Chacon; Small's gotten enough offensive and bullpen support to win.

Chacin is on a five game winning streak, and seems to be filling the role of staff ace in Halladay's absence. He just needs to become more efficient so he can go deeper in games.

The Braves visit the Cardinals in a matchup of the two winningest teams in the National League. Atlanta trails St. Louis by 5 1/2 games in the race for best record and home field in the playoffs. With the Cardinals still injured, it's a good time to gain ground for the post season.

John Smoltz will oppose Mark Mulder at Busch. Both are 12-5, but Smoltz's ERA is over a run lower. The big difference between the two pitchers are their strikeouts. Smoltz is striking out 6.5 per 9 and has a opposition BA of .239. Mulder is striking out just 4.8 per 9, and has an opposition BA of .278.

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 04, 2005
Games of the Day

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays continue to roll, winning their sixth in a row last night, an 8-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Since the end of their 10 game losing streak, the Devil Rays are 15-6, the third best record in the majors from July 9th on. They'll send Casey Fossum against Joaquin Benoit tonight. Fossum and Benoit both moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season. Fossum's 4-7 record starting belies the fact he's pitched well, posting a 3.81 ERA. Benoit was untouchable as a reliever, but he's given up the long ball as a starter. He only allowed one home run in 26 relief innings, but the opposition has hit 4 in 15 2/3 innings as a starter.

The Cubs and Phillies play the rubber game of their series with Mark Prior facing Brett Myers. Myers recovered from his horrible June with a 4-1 mark in July. It's not clear if Myers was doing anything differently in the two months, but many more hits were falling in safely in June. The Cubs have won Prior's last four starts. Mark has struck out 28 in that time frame, but his walks are a bit high, 10 in 28 innings.

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SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 03, 2005
Games of the Day

A nice pitching matchup in Cleveland tonight as Mike Mussina faces Cliff Lee. The Indians are just 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the wild card race. Mussina could easily be 3-0 over his last three starts as the Yankees scored just 1 run in two of them. The switch hitters on the Yankees may want to consider batting lefty against Lee. He's from the Tom Glavine school of lefties who do better against their opposite side. Cliff's BA, OBA and Slugging Pct. allowed are all higher vs. left handed batters.

Chan Ho Park makes his first start for the Padres tonight, and the Padres were nice enough to send him against the Pirates. The Pittsburgh offense is the 2nd lowest scoring in terms of runs per game. He'll face Dave Williams, whose 8-8 record is very impressive for such a poor team. His ERA, however, is 6.23 at PNC vs. 2.65 on the road.

The Orioles send their best starter against the Angels tonight to try to break their seven game losing streak. Erik Bedard is 0-2 in his three starts since returning from the DL, but with a 3.18 ERA. The Angels send John Lackey to the mound. Lackey pitched eight shutout innings in the 18 frame marathon against the Blue Jays last Thursday. Lackey is 2nd in the AL in K per 9 at 9.18.

Enjoy!

SIA
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 02, 2005
Games of the Day

It's being billed as a battle of potential Cy Young candidates, but tonight's matching Florida's Dontrelle Willis and the Cardinals' Chris Carpenter is less than that. First of all, Roger Clemens at the moment looks like he'll win the award (he's also pitching tonight). Secondly, Willis' poor July might very well have cost him his chance in the race.

Still, it's a terrific matchup of two potential 20-game winners. Both are excellent at limiting the long ball. Dontrelle ranks 2nd in the NL in home runs per 9 IP, Carpenter fourth. It's one of the biggest areas of improvement from last year for both pitchers.

Baltimore goes from one division leader to another as the Orioles fly west to face another winged team, the LAnaheim Angels. It will be a weighty affair as Sidney Ponson faces Bartolo Colon. (In another rhyming match tonight, Seth McClung faces Chris Young.) Ponson tips the scales at 253, while Bartolo comes in at 250. We'll see if they have to build the mound back up in the middle of the game.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 01, 2005
Games of the Day

It's quality, not quantity this August 1st. Only four games scheduled today, but they're all good ones.

It all gets started in Baltimore today as the White Sox go for a sweep of the Orioles. Chicago has scored twice as many runs as Baltimore in the series so far. Mark Buehrle takes the hill against Daniel Cabrera. Buehrle had a rough July, going just 3-1 with a 5.01 ERA. Still, he allowed just one homer in the month. Cabrera was just the opposite, posting a 2.53 ERA in July, despite giving up 20 walks in 34 innings.

The Pirates send pitcher of the month Zach Duke against the Braves to try to snap their five game losing streak. He'll face Tim Hudson. Duke's done every right so far; his strikeouts are high, his walks and homers are low, and the opposition is hitting just .048 against him with runners in scoring position. Hudson's been tough at Turner field this year, going 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA.

The Twins host the Athletics under the lights. It's the start of a four game series, and the Twins find themselves four games behind Oakland in the wild card race. On the morning of July 5th, Minnesota held a 6 1/2 game advantage Oakland. Since then, the A's have gone 18-5 to the Twins 8-16. Minnesota ace Johan Santana takes the mound against Joe Blanton. Santana's won three in a row, despite a dip in his strikeouts (just 11 in his last 19 innings). Blanton did not record a win in July after a 5-1 June. He's had back stiffness, which the A's are trying to fix by switching him from running to biking.

Finally, the St. Louis Cardinals return home to face the Florida Marlins. The Cardinals' lead in the NL Central is under 10 games, thanks to the incredible run by the Houston Astros. The Marlins are just 2 1/2 games behind the Astros for wild card. The Cardinals offense hasn't been hurt by all the injuries as they've average 8 runs a game over their last four contests. Miguel Cabrera's been the hot player for Florida. He's hit five home runs and driven in 11 during his 12 game hit streak.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 31, 2005
Games of the Day

The Oakland Athletics are just 2 1/2 games behind the LAnaheim Angels going into action today. The Angels-Yankees game looks like a mismatch, as career minor leaguer Chris Bootcheck faces Randy Johnson. Bootcheck is making his first start of the season and only the second of his career. Johnson is coming off his best start of the season, eight shutout innings vs. the Twins, no walks and eleven strikeouts.

The Athletics face a former farmhand who is developing into the Tiger's ace. Jeremy Bonderman faces Kirk Saarloos this afternoon. Bonderman is 8-3 since June 1st, despite a 4.36 ERA. Saarloos is coming off two poor starts; he's allowed 9 earned runs in his last 11 1/3 innings. Given the Athletics scoring lately, he still could get a win pitching like that.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 30, 2005
Games of the Day

The Washington Nationals send John Patterson to the mound against A.J. Burnett and the Marlins to try to stop their five game skid. At the beginning of the week, they were tied with the Braves for first in the NL East. Now, they're not even leading the wild card as they sit one game behind Houston. Burnett's improved with each start since returning from the DL, going seven strong innings vs. the Giants his last time out. Patterson has allowed no more than two runs in each of his last six starts, yet his record over that time is 1-0. The Nationals are only 2-4 in those games, wasting four good outings that should have them tied for first in the division.

Barry Zito tries to keep his winning streak going today as the Athletics host the Tigers and Nate Robertson. Through June 17th, Zito was 3-8 with a 4.66 ERA. Since then, he's won six in a row with a 1.61 ERA. He's not striking out as many batters, but he's giving up many fewer hits. You don't see that too often. Robertson and Zito have each been effective with men in scoring position this year. Zito ranks third in the AL with a .196 BA allowed, while Robertson is 6th at with a .214 BA allowed.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 29, 2005
Games of the Day

There are lots of great contests today. The Diamondbacks and Cubs get us started early at Wrigley with Javier Vazquez facing Mark Prior. Vazquez appears to be bothered by the home run bug again. He gave up six in April and May, fourteen since. Prior has been lights out at Wrigley this season, posting a 1.89 ERA in 52 1/3 innings while striking out 60.

The Twins travel to Boston in third place in the wild card race. Both teams are feeling the heat from the Yankees as Boston hold just a 1 1/2 game lead in the AL East. Carlos Silva faces Wade Miller. We'll see how the Manny Ramirez situation plays out. I'm wondering if Francona will bench Manny today.

The LAnaheim Angels, fresh off a sweep by the Blue Jays come into Yankee Stadium to meet Mike Mussina on the mound. Mussina's allowed a mere .298 OBA in Yankee Stadium this season. The Angels send Ervin Santana against the Bronx Bombers. Santana got the win vs. NY in his last start, but his team's offense was really the difference. His wildness doesn't work well against the Yankees hitters.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 28, 2005
Games of the Day

The Astros and Mets are 2-3 in the Wild Card standings as New York visits Houston for the start of a four game series. The Mets send their best to the mound to try to stop the Astros four game winning streak. Pedro Martinez faces Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio shows some promise as he starts his major league career. He's striking out almost 9 batters per 9 innings. The bad news is he's allowed 13 home runs in 31 2/3 innings. When batters do hit the ball, it tends to go a long way.

Opposing batters are just getting nowhere with Pedro. They have a .229 OBA against the righty, and a .297 slugging percentage. Imagine how long a hitter would last in the majors with those numbers.

The Yankees and Twins play the rubber game of their series this afternoon at Yankee Stadium. A win by the Twins ties them with Oakland for the wild card lead; a win by the Yankees puts them in 2nd place in the race ahead of Minnesota.

As the graphs at The Hardball Times show, the Yankees and Twins achieved their similar records through very different means. The Yankees do very well on the runs scored axes, while the Twins are near the top in pitching and defense. There are lots of different ways to win ballgames.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
July 27, 2005
Game of the Day

The 50-50 San Diego Padres are facing the prospect of leading their division with a sub-.500 record. They've lost eight in a row and once again face a depleted St. Louis lineup. The Padres just are not delivering. They knocked out nine hits in 5 2/3 innings vs. Mulder last night, but came away with only two runs. Three double plays by the Cardinals helped. As you can see here, the hitters are just not hitting. Most of the regulars have on-base averages below .300.

The Padres will try to turn this around as Jake Peavy faces Jason Marquis. Peavy was shelled by the Mets in his last start and has been inconsistent since the start of June. The Padres need Jake to be a rock solid staff ace right now, and he's not getting the job done.

Marquis is the "hard luck" pitcher on the Cardinals staff. His ERA is 3rd among the five regular starters, but his 9-7 record less deserved than Mulder's 12-5. Although I suppose that things even out; his ERA is likely lower than it should be given his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. His DIPS is 5.10.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 26, 2005
Games of the Day

The Twins and Yankees open a three game series that will help determine the AL wild card winner. Twins and Yankees are ranked 2 and 3 in the race, with Minnesota ahead of New York by 1/2 game. They'll start the set with their oldest veterans. Brad Radke takes the hill for the Twins. Radke continues his outstanding control, having walked just 1 batter in his last four starts, and 10 in 133 IP on the year. He'll face Randy Johnson. One reason for Johnson's poor season are the hits falling in against him. His batting average allowed is 70 points higher than last year.

The Nationals and Braves are tied for the NL East lead, and they'll send their aces to the mound as Livan Hernandez faces John Smoltz, two oldies but goodies. Washington is leading the season series 6-3. Livan is on a bit of a losing streak as the Nationals went down to defeat in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, the Braves have won Smoltz's last eight starts.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 25, 2005
Games of the Day

A nice pitching matchup in Milwaukee this evening as Brandon Webb and the Diamondbacks face Ben Sheets and the Brewers. The Diamondbacks are closing in on the Padres, while the Brewers are fighting to get back to .500 and back into the wild card race. Arizona lost the five starts by Webb, with Brandon picking up the decision in four of them. Webb has a 6.68 ERA over his last five starts, allowing 44 hits in 32 1/3 innings. Sheets over the same period has a 3.18 ERA, and has only walked 3 batters in his last 34 innings.

Just 1/2 game separate the Phillies and Astros in the NL wild card race as the two team meet tonight in Houston. Cory Lidle's strong start faded in the summer. In April and May, Lidle posted a 5-3 record and a 3.50 ERA. Since, he's 3-5 with a 5.49 ERA. Andy Pettitte, however, is in line for pitcher of the month honors with his 3-0 record and 1.08 ERA.

Finally, the Cleveland Indians travel to Oakland trailing the Athletics by 2 1/2 games in the wild card race. They'll send C.C. Sabathia against Barry Zito. Milliliter is not living up to his role as staff ace. He's allowed 24 hits in his last 15 1/3 innings. Zito, however, regained his ace form at the end of June. He's 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA over his last six starts, and has allowed just 25 hits in 44 1/3 innings. Cleveland has the worst BA vs. lefties in the AL, so that's another factor that should favor Oakland tonight.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 24, 2005
Games of the Day

The odds look good for the Athletics sweeping the Rangers today. Rich Harden takes his 2.11 ERA to the mound against Chan Ho Park's 5.33. As I watch the Rangers free fall, I wonder how long Showalter and Hershiser will last. They have failed to add to last year's improvement. A loss to Oakland today pretty much buries them in both the AL West and Wild Card races. I haven't heard Buck's name on the list of managers on the hot seat, but since the break they've lost 6 of 7 to Oakland and 2 of 3 to the Yankees, two teams they needed to beat in the wild card race. That kid of performance should certainly put the manager's job on the line.

The Cubs and Cardinals play the rubber game of their series in stunning high definition this evening on ESPN. It's Prior vs. Suppan on the mound and Lee, Burnitz and Ramirez vs. Pujols, Edmonds and Walker at the plate. Since June 1, Ramirez and Lee each have 16 home runs and have combined to drive in 80.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 23, 2005
Games of the Day

I'm about to hit the road for the morning, so a quick Games of the Day. The Twins play a pair against the Tigers today, and a sweep can put a little distance between them and the Yankees in the wild card race. Houston goes for their seventh consecutive win vs. reeling Washington. Chicago-Boston, Oakland-Texas and New York-LAnaheim all have implications in the AL division and wild card races.

The Braves-Diamondbacks should be a good matchup as Sosa faces Halsey. Sosa may be the luckiest starter on the Braves staff. He's walked 19 in 24 innings as a starter, yet has a 2.63 ERA and a 2-0 record. After going through a rough stretch, Halsey pitched two good games in a row, allowing just three runs in his last 13 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 22, 2005
Games of the Day

Houston sends its best pitcher to the mound tonight as Roger Clemens faces the Nationals and Ryan Drese at RFK. Clemens is working on a streak of seven straight games in which he's allowed 2 earned runs or less. He on track for another Cy Young award. Drese lowered his ERA three runs moving from Texas to Washington. The big difference is he's allowed 0 home runs, and his hits allowed in general are way down. He was allowing 12.4 hits per 9 with Texas, 7.9 with Washington. Is it better defense or better pitches?

The Cubs open a series in St. Louis trailing the Cardinals by 13. They're also 5 1/2 in the wild card race. With the Cardinals injured, the Cubs have a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race and show the Cardinals that they are not invincible. They'll have a tough time tonight, however, as Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis against Carlos Zambrano.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:42 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 21, 2005
Games of the Day

It looks like an even matchup in Detroit tonight as Johan Santana and the Twins visit Jason Johnson and the Tigers. Both pitchers sport 3.84 ERAs entering action today. They've allowed the same number of walks (although Santana pitched 9 1/3 more innings) and about the same number of home runs. But Santana has struck out nearly 90 more batters. I would think the resulting decrease in hits allowed would make a big difference in their ERAs.

Your pitching staff is in good shape when your second best pitcher has a 2.54 ERA, and Roy Oswalt gets to pitch in a friendly park tonight as Houston faces Washington at RFK. Esteban Loaiza takes the hill for the Nationals. Clemens and Oswalt are 1-3 in the NL in ERA, and with the month Andy Pettitte is having he may join them soon. Given Minute Maid's reputation as a hitter's haven, I'm surprised to see Roy with a 3.18 road ERA vs. 1.95 at home. Loaiza also finds success at home, with a 2.36 ERA in Washington vs. a 4.94 ERA on the road.

The big matchup of the night pits the first place Red Sox against the first place White Sox in Chicago. Matt Clement and Mark Buehrle oppose each other on the hill. This is the first time the possible playoff opponents meet this season. Boston boasts the 2nd best offense in the league, nearly tied with the Yankees. The White Sox trot out the best defense, with the lowest ERA in the league. The White Sox offense, however, is in the top half of the league, while the Red Sox rank 11th in ERA. That should give Chicago an edge in this series.

Finally, just one west coast game tonight as the Yankees face the LAnaheim Angels. Expect a lot of strikeouts as Randy Johnson faces Bartolo Colon. Colon's run into a bit of a wall lately, allowing 12 runs in his last 11 innings. Johnson won his last three and struck out 26 batters in 19 1/3 innings over that streak.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
July 20, 2005
Games of the Day

There are two good examples of the importance of run support today. Nate Robertson faces Freddy Garcia as the Tigers and White Sox play the rubber game of their three game series. Robertson has a better ERA than Garcia, but is just 4-7, while Freddy is 9-3. Robertson's given up 51 runs, while the Tigers have scored 41 while he's been on the mound. Garcia, on the other hand, allowed 52 runs this year while the White Sox scored 83 for the pitcher.

That isn't the only difference, however. Robertson's allowed 12 unearned runs while Garica only seen two cross the plate. And Garica goes an inning deeper in games on average, giving the bullpen less of a chance to blow a lead.

In St. Louis, Ben Sheets faces Mark Mulder. Mulder is sporting a 10-5 record with a 4.13 ERA. Sheets is at 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA. Sheets allowed 43 runs this season, and his team scored 43 with him on the mound. For Mulder, those numbers are 59 and 77.

Which will win out? The better pitcher or the better offense? Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 19, 2005
Games of the Day

If you're interested in a little late afternoon slugfest, check out game 1 of the Astros-Pirates double header. Ezequiel Astacio brings his 9.47 ERA to PNC Park to face Ian Snell, a pitcher who walks as many as he strikes out (and he strikes out quite a few batters).

At the other extreme, Rich Harden tries to even the series with the Angels as he takes on Jarrod Washburn of the Angels. Washburn won two of his last three starts depite not getting out of the 6th inning. Harden's strength this season is his ability to get both lefties and righties out. Left-handed batters have a .264 OBA vs. the righty, while righties are getting on at a .258 clip.

AJ Burnett may be making his last start for the Marlins tonight, as he's the subject of lots of trade rumors. He's not exactly impressing anyone as the deadline approaches, posting a 7.04 ERA in July. He'll face Javier Vazquez and the Diamondbacks.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 18, 2005
Games of the Day

Erick Bedard returns to the Orioles not a moment too soon as the Brids go head-to-head with the Twins in a game important in both the wild card and AL East races. He'll face Carlos Silva at the HHH Metrodome. Bedard last pitched on May 21st, and the Orioles have missed his 2.08 ERA. The Orioles are 22-27 since Eric's last start. The Twins find themselves tied with the Yankees for the wild card lead, and only 1/2 game in front of the Orioles. The Twins are just 3-7 over their last 10 games, including a 2-5 mark against the Angels. The Twins need to do better against the top AL teams if they're going far in the playoffs.

Later tonight, the red hot Athletics travel to LAnaheim to face the division leading Angels. Tonight's matchup favors the A's, as Kirk Saarloos faces Ervin "Magic" Santana. Santana's been hurt by allowing a home run every five innings. Saarloos has allowed fewer homers in more than twice as many innings. It's a three game series, so Oakland can pull within five of the Angels with a sweep.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 17, 2005
Games of the Day

The Mets haven't generated much offense in the last two games against the Braves, and they may not need to this afternoon as Pedro Martinez takes the mound against Mike Hampton. Mike hasn't pitched in six weeks, but was having a great season before his injury. He has not allowed a run since May 3rd. Pedro's pitching against the Braves this season is right around his season averages; a high 2's ERA, lots of strikeouts and few walks.

The other superb matchup takes place in St. Louis where potential All-Star starter Roger Clemens takes on the actual All-Star starter Chris Carpenter. Roger's only allowed 2 home runs in his last 41 innings, over which time he has a 1.10 ERA. Carpenter's matched that (in 41 2/3 innings) and his ERA since 6/14 is just 0.43.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 16, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees and Red Sox send their aces against each other this afternoon as Randy Johnson faces Matt Clement. Johnson hasn't pitched great against the Red Sox, but he's pitched well enough to be 2-0 in three starts. He's getting his strikeouts, but the selective Red Sox lineup is drawing walks against the Big Unit. Clement has only allowed 2 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings against New York despite allowing 10 hits and seven walks.

The Oakland Athletics can move into second place in the AL West today with a win over the Rangers. Kenny Rogers will face Joe Blanton. I believe this is the third day in a row I've seen Rogers listed as the starter. The Rangers offense is doing nothing against the A's starters in this series. Barry Zito copied Rich Harden last night and took a no-hitter into the eighth. The A's are outscoring their opponents by over two runs a game in July.

The Nationals started the second half by losing two games late, the opposite of how they played the first half. They'll send Esteban Loaiza against Chris Capuano today. Capuano is the de facto Brewers ace this season, even with Ben Sheets throwing a good game last night. Capuano is riding a five game winning streak, although he hasn't been outstanding in that streak, posting a 3.94 ERA with poor strikeout, walk and home run numbers.

Finally, the Angels try to make it three in a row over the Twins as both teams send their aces to the mound. All-Stars Bartolo Colon and Johan Santana go head-to-head this evening. Both pitchers are showing tremendous control this year. Each has walked 26 batters, and they only differ in innings pitched by 2/3 an inning.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 15, 2005
Games of the Day

Rafael Palmeiro goes for 3000 hits tonight as the Orioles face the Mariners in Seattle. With a single last night, Palmeiro is sitting on 2999 safties. The O's picked up a game on both the AL East and Wild Card leaders last night and a win tonight can put them back in control of their playoff future.

The NL East continues to tighten, with seven games separating the five teams top to bottom. There's two good pitching matchups in the division today. The Marlins send Brian Moehler against Cory Lidle in Philadelphia. Moehler hasn't gone deep in games lately, not getting out of the sixth in five of his last eight starts. Lidle's on a hot streak, posting a 2.28 ERA over his last six games.

In New York, old teammates and golfing buddies Tom Glavine and John Smoltz face off against each other for the first time. Tom's been pounded by his old team this year, giving up 19 hits in 11 innings while posting an ERA of 9.00. Smoltz has handled the Mets just fine this season, striking out 19 in 14 innings and allowing a meager 1.93 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 14, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees invade Fenway for a four game series, just 2 1/2 games behind the division leading Red Sox. Mike Mussina and Bronson Arroyo oppose each other on the mound. This is Mike's fourth start against the Red Sox this year, and the results are not good. Mussina's allowed 23 hits and 7 walks in just 14 innings for a 7.07 ERA. Arroyo didn't do much better in his only start against the Yankees. It's really been an offensive battle when the two teams meet. Here's the Red Sox batters against the Yankees this season. Everyone with at least 10 PA has a better than .340 OBA. The Yankees haven't been quite that good, but they'll take that level of offense.

The White Sox have lost three in a row, a streak the Cleveland Indians will try to extend tonight. No one in the Central Division has been able to touch the Sox this season, as Chicago is 26-5 vs. the division. At eleven games out, Cleveland is going to need a sweep of this series if they really want to get back in the division race. Jose Contreras faces Kevin Millwood.

Booed all-star Kenny Rogers gets the nod from Texas despite pitching an inning on Tuesday as the Rangers face the surging Athletics. It looks like Texas is trying to get as many starts as possible from their slugging pitcher before the suspension kicks in. He'll face Rich Harden, who may be pulling a Jake Peavy. He doesn't have enough inning to qualify for the top five in ERA, but as he pitches more and more he'll catch up to the leaders. He's actually ahead of Rogers by .01 runs. Oakland is only 2 1/2 games behind Texas for 2nd in the West. A sweep puts them all alone in 2nd.

Finally, Arizona gets a chance to put a dent in San Diego's 5 1/2 game lead as they visit the Padres tonight. Neither team is playing very well lately. If one can take advantage of the other the Padres could solidify their lead or the DBacks can climb back into contention. Javier Vazquez faces Brian Lawrence tonight. Vazquez's great control is not translating into a great ERA as he's allowing lots of extra base hits. Brian Lawrence receives great defensive support. He's allowed no earned runs this season. But his offensive support leaves something to be desired, as he's been outscored 54-47 when he's on the mound.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 10, 2005
Game of the Day

Oakland tries to make it 7 of 9 against the Chicago White Sox today as Danny Haren faces Freddy Garcia. Haren has not lost since May 26 at Tampa Bay. He's 6-0 with a 3.07 ERA since that loss and is only walking 1.1 per 9. The White Sox haven't lost a game that Garcia started since May 14th. Garcia has an 2.89 ERA in that stretch.

Enjoy!

Correction: It should have been 7 of 9, not 7 of 10.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 09, 2005
Game of the Day

I'm off to Orioles Park at Camden Yards for a reunion with my college roommates. I'll be in section 322 if you want to stop by.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 08, 2005
Games of the Day

The Phillies get the next chance to attempt to bring Washington back to the pack. They'll send Robinson Tejeda to the mound as they host the Nationals and Ryan Drese. It's one of a number of excellent pitching matchups today. Carlos Zambrano faces Dontrelle Willis as the Cubs visit the Marlins. The Athletics send Kirk Saarloos against Jon Garland. (We could have a 14 game winner tonight.) Cliff Lee of the Indians goes against Chien-Ming Wang in the Bronx. Even Roy Halladay vs. John Wasdin in Texas could be fun.

And finally, Mark Mulder returns to the Bay Area in what should have been the duel of the day. He'll face Jason Schmidt and the Giants in San Francisco. Mulder is winning, but not having a great year overall. You don't know if you're going to get the brilliant shut out or the four inning blowout from Mark this season. Schmidt's problems are clearly related to his control. His strikeouts are fine; he's walking a lot more batters than usual.

Enjoy!

Correction: That's Cliff Lee, not Carlos.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 07, 2005
Games of the Day

An interesting pitching matchup in Florida. Victor Santos and Brian Moehler both have good ERAs (3.28 and 3.16) but losing records (2-8, 3-6). Santos has allowed 44 runs and the Brewers have only scored 36 for him. Moehler is similar, allowing 35 runs but having only 27 runs scored for him. I expect a low scoring game, and it would be appropriate if the bullpens get the decision.

The Red Sox and Orioles open a big four game series in Baltimore today. David Wells will face Daniel Cabrera. The Orioles are four games out after the Red Sox victory over Texas last night. Both these pitchers have ERAs over 5.00, but both are capable of dominating performances. Given the strength of the two offenses, I'm looking for a slugfest.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 06, 2005
Games of the Day

It's getaway day in LAnaheim as Johan Santana face Paul Byrd. Santana last won on June 8th, and in the four starts since gave up 12 walks and four home runs. Byrd's last four starts show a great combination of run support and good pitching. The Angels won all four games, and Byrd allowed just five earned runs in 31 innings for a 1.45 ERA, while the Angels scored a total of 26 runs.

The pitching matchup of the day is in Atlanta where Mark Prior and the Cubs take on John Smoltz and the Braves. Prior has not walked a batter since returning from the DL while striking out 10 in 11 innings. Smoltz is on a control tear of his own, striking out 29 and walking just 3 in his last 32 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 05, 2005
Games of the Day

The Mets continue to try to climb out of the cellar in the NL East. They'll send their best pitcher, Pedro Martinez against Washington righty Esteban Loaiza. Esteban shows how much RFK can help pitchers; he's posted a 2.55 ERA at home, 5.24 on the road. Opponents OBA vs. Martinez is an amazingly low .221. That's the second best mark of his career, topped only by his 2000 .213 mark.

There's a very nice pitching matchup in Miami as eight-game winners Chris Capuano and Josh Beckett face off in the Brewers-Marlins tilt. Capuano is very good at getting himself out of jams this season. He puts lots of runners on with the bases empty (.357 OBA allowed with none on) but doesn't let them come around to score much (.204 BA allowed with runners in scoring position). Beckett is coming off six shutout innings in his debut from the disabled list. He's 6-1 with a 2.26 ERA at home this season and allowed a mere .273 slugging percentage at Dolphins Stadium.

The next team in Oakland's sights as they try to come back into contention is the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are 1 1/2 games in front of the Athletics in the wild card race. Danny Haren and Josh Towers open a three-game series between the two clubs tonight. Haren's won six in a row, and pitched well enough to win eight in a row. He's walked six in his last 59 2/3 innings.

Towers is having a season the reverse of Haren's. He started off 5-1, but since May 22nd he's 1-6 with a 5.36 ERA. His defense has been porous during that time, allowing 60 hits in 45 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 04, 2005
Games of the Day

The Baltimore Orioles begin an important week of baseball leading up to the All-Star break. With two games against the Yankees in New York and four game versus Boston in Baltimore, the O's are in a position to take back first place in the AL East. They'll start this after noon, sending Bruce Chen against emergency starter Tanyon Sturtze. With Pavano added to the list of hurting Yankees, Sturtze will pitch today and Randy Johnson goes on short rest tomorrow.

Sturtze's last start was on 8/11/2004 vs. the Texas Rangers. He pitched fine, lasting five innings and giving up two runs. If he only goes five innings today, who is going to bridge the gap between Sturtze and Gordon?

Chen last pitched June 25th and a toe injury and a rainout kept him on the roster while healing. Chen has a 1.80 ERA vs. the Yankees this year, striking out 9 and walking only 1 in 15 innings.

At the mid-way point of the season, the Mets and Nationals find themselves at opposite ends of the NL East. The Nats enjoy a five and a half game lead in the division and are 21 games above .500. The Mets are 10 games back, 1 game below break even. The two teams open a four game series today, which gives the Mets a chance to climb back into the division race. Kaz Ishii faces John Patterson. It really is a tale of two imported sluggers, however. The Mets signed Carlos Beltran in the off season, and his hitting is not what the Mets expected. His .318 OBA and .430 slugging percentage are both way below his norms. I heard Omar Minaya say Beltran is playing hurt; he had fluid drained from his knee last week. Maybe the Mets should give him two weeks off so he can come back and play like the slugger they expected to sign.

The Nationals picked up Jose Guillen after his release from Anaheim due to a run in with Mike Scioscia. Guillen is well above his career averages in OBA and Slugging. His power is being hurt by RFK; he has 1 home run at home, 16 on the road. These two should trade spaces on the All-Star team.

There's an excellent pitching matchup in Arizona tonight as Matt Morris of the Cardinals take on Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks. Morris, at 9-1, enjoys great run support to go with his good pitching. The Cardinals have outscored their opponents 73-40 while Morris is on the mound. Webb's last three losses game in games that he pitched well enough to win. He could easily be 11-1. Webb's cut down his walks this season, even below his excellent rookie year of 2003.

Enjoy!

Correction: Guillen was not released from Anaheim, he was traded.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 03, 2005
Games of the Day

Jon Garland became the first 13 game winner in the AL yesterday, and Dontrelle Willis goes for that goal in the NL. He'll take on the Mets and Victor Zambrano. After seven consecutive starts in the which the Mets scored 4 runs or less (they only scored four once), the offense got Victor 8 runs his last time out. So even though he has a 2.70 ERA since May 11, Zambrano is only 2-3 in that time period. Willis had his worst start of the year last time out vs. the Braves, giving up the most runs and most hits of any game he's pitched in 2005.

Victor's name sake Carlos Zambrano host the Washington Nationals and Ryan Drese in Chicago this afternoon. Drese pitched two great games in three starts for the Nationals so far. Both came in parks favorable to the pitcher. Zambrano's ERA looks high for someone who's given up a .212 batting average, but Carlos is allowing home runs at about twice the clip as his previous two seasons combined.

The release of Drese started a cascade of events in Texas that led to Kenny Rogers 20 game suspension. Of course, no one serves a suspension without an appeal, so Rogers will be on the mound in Seattle today to face Mariners and Jamie Moyer. The battle of the ancient lefties pits two pitchers who have combined in their careers for 383 wins. Moyer is just two away from 200. The forty-two year old appears to be nearing the end of his career. He had pitched 9 of ten years with an ERA under 4.00, but the last two season he's been well over 4.00. Rogers, at age 40, never came close to a 2.50 ERA before. He actions over the last two weeks, punching a water cooler and two cameramen put that great season in jeopardy.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 02, 2005
Games of the Day

The Marlins and Mets continue their NL East series at Shea. Brian Moehler faces Kris Benson. Moehler is alternating good and bad starts lately, and not winning the good ones. He's due for a bad start today. Althought Benson is 3-1 at home and on the road, he pitches much better at Shea, only allowing 1 home in 38 1/3 innings there, compared to 8 home runs in 30 innings on the road.

The Athletics drew 10 walks last night enroute to a 6-2 victory over the White Sox. Kirk Saarloos tries to extend the A's winning streak to nine and bring them to the .500 mark against 12-3 Jon Garland tonight. Garland's luck ran both way recently. In his last start, he pitched great but was at the wrong end of a 2-0 Cubs shutout. Three starts ago he pitched poorly, but won the game 12-6 against the Diamondbacks. Garland keeps the free passes at a minimum, walking just 19 in 108 innings this season.

Saarloos gave up 4 runs on May 28th, then 3, 2, 1 and 0 in a complete game shutout vs. Mariners his last time out. Is it possible to allow negative runs in a game? He's also going on long rest here, last pitching on June 23rd.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2005
Games of the Day

The big contests today are mostly in the NL East. The afternoon kicks off with a dandy pitching matchup at Wrigley as Livan Hernandez of the Nationals faces Mark Prior of the Cubs. Livan's last loss was on April 19th; the team has lost only one of his 13 starts since. Prior pitched well coming off the DL, shutting down the White Sox with six 1-hit innings.

In New York, the Marlins come to town with their pitching rotation back in order. Josh Beckett threw six 1-hit innings against the Braves last night in his return from injury. Today, A.J. Burnett takes on Tom Glavine. Burnett's 3.14 ERA is better than his 5-5 record. He needs to go longer than six innings more often. After two weak outings, Glavine is coming off a strong start against the Yankees. All three were on the road, and Tom's ERA drops two runs at Shea.

Finally, two hot teams clash in Oakland as the White Sox visit the Athletics. Jose Contreras takes on Rich Harden. Contreras may the running out of steam, as his June ERA was 5.81. Harden's only allowed 1 run in 12 innings since returning from the DL.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 30, 2005
Game of the Day

Jon Lieber returns to New York to face the Mets and Pedro Martinez this afternoon. Lieber got off to a great start, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in April, but since his record is 4-6 with an ERA twice his April number. Meanwhile, Pedro is being Pedro for the Mets; great record, great ERA, lots of strikeouts and he pitched well against the Yankees. This will be Pedro's seventh start under sunlight. He's only received one decision during the day (he's 1-0). That's surprising because the Mets offense is much better during the day (5.3 runs per game day, 4.1 at night). Pedro must have gotten the Mets of their bad days.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2005
Games of the Day

Kerry Wood returns to the Cubs rotation this afternoon as Chicago host the Brewers and Ben Sheets. Wood missed two months with a strained right shoulder. Wood had control problems before the injury; he struck out 33 in 26 1/3 innings, but walked 14. Batters were hitting Kerry for power, as they combined to slug .535 vs. the righty. After three good starts, Sheets was roughed up by the Cubs last week in an 8-7 Milwaukee win. Sheets is having great success vs. lefties this season, while right-handers are giving him problems. In the same number of at bats, righties have seven more hits and double the homers (8-4).

The Astros send Roy Oswalt to the mound in Colorado vs. Byung-Hyun Kim. Kim ERA as a starter in Colorado this season is 2.78. Maybe the key to success at Coors is an unusual delivery. Roy's only pitched one game at Coors in his career, but it was a good one, allowing just 3 runs in seven innings.

Finally, the Athletics try to make it six in a row against the Mariners this evening. Ryan Franklin faces Kirk Saarloos. Kirk is having an excellent June, posting a 3-0 record and a 2.08 ERA despite just seven strikeouts in 26 innings. In nine games vs. the A's this season, the Mariners are batting just .239.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2005
Games of the Day

The Detroit Tigers stand at .500 with 36-36 record and are only four games out of the wild card. Tonight's a good opportunity to prove they belong in the playoff hunt as Nate Robertson host Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox. Robertson is only 3-5 but posesses a good ERA and is coming off a complete game win vs. the Twins. Depite a 2.95 ERA at home, he's yet to win at Comerica Park this season. Buehrle hasn't loss his since 2nd start in April. The lefty's been equally effective vs. batters from both sides of the plate.

Dontrelle Willis once again is called upon to pitch after a loss. He goes for win 13 tonight against the Braves. Jorge Sosa takes the mound for the Braves. Sosa is pitching much better as a starter than as a reliever. Notice how his walks are way down. Dontrelle is on a 19 innings scoreless streak.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 27, 2005
Games of the Day

Two weeks until the All-Star game, and it's all intra-league play from here on in. The Orioles host the Yankees tonight. Both teams are playing poorly; the Yankees are 2-5 over their last seven and the Orioles 1-6. The teams will send Carl Pavano Daniel Cabrera to the mound in a crucial series for both teams. Cabrera's era is three and a half points better at Camden Yards than on the road. Pavano is coming off two starts in which he allowed 11 earned runs in 12 innings.

An important wild card game in Boston as the Indians face the Red Sox. Millwood faces Arroyo. While Boston tries to keep their winning ways alive, the Indians are trying to knock off teams that could compete with them for the wild card. Kevin Millwood faces Bronson Arroyo. Millwood record of 2-5 doesn't reflect how well he's pitched this season. Arroyo's ERA is higher than it should be based on three bad outings. Take away those 19 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings and you have a pitcher with a 2.88 ERA.

Texas is on the brink of falling out of the NL West race. At this point, they're closer to third place Oakland than first place Anaheim. The get a chance to gain some ground as they host the Angels tonight. They'll have a tough time as the Angels send Bartolo Colon to the mound vs. C.J. Wilson. Colon is having a good year vs. the Rangers; in two starts he's struck out twelve and allowed only 1 home run to the powerful lineup, converting both starts into wins.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2005
Games of the Day

Mark Prior pitches his first major league game in a month when he tries to help the Cubs take the rubber game of the match from cross town rivals and baseball's best team, the Chicago White Sox. He'll face one of the many outstanding Sox starters, Jon Garland. A win by Garland makes him the first pitcher to 13 this season. Since 1974, 14 pitchers have reached 13 wins before July 1, the last being Curt Schilling in 2002. Joaquin Andjuar did it twice (1984 and 1985). Garland's had a rough month, posting a 5.03 ERA over his last five starts. He's given up seven of his ten home runs in that time.

The nomination for slugfest of the day is Kansas City at Colorado. Both Jose Lima and "The Patriarch" Joe Kennedy each possess ERA's over 7.00. Lima's allowed 19 home runs in 2005, and has 7 games in which he's allowed multiple long balls. Kennedy's allowed a .334 batting average this season, and is less than three innings shy of qualifying for the worst BA allowed in the National League.

Finally, Kris Benson takes on Randy Johnson as the Mets attempt to sweep the Yankees in the Bronx. Benson needs to regain his ability to strikeout batters; he only has four over his last four starts. On the plus side, he's only walked three in that period. Randy Johnson looked like he put it all together until he ran into the Devil Rays buzz saw last Tuesday. Only a remarkable comeback by the Yankees kept him from taking the loss.

Willie Randolph already won the season series against his mentor. A sweep at his former home would only be icing on the cake.

Enjoy!

Correction: The Mets lead the season series with the Yankees 3-2 and need a win tonight to win it out right.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2005
Games of the Day

The Mariners didn't have a problem generating offense at PETCO last night. They did it with short extra-base hits, banging out five doubles and three triples to go along with a Richie Sexson home run. The fourteen runs scored by Seattle last night was the most scored by a team at PETCO Park.

Today is shaping up to be more of a pitcher's duel as Aaron Sele faced Padres ace Jake Peavy. Sele is on a roll. Over his last seven starts he's posted a 1.75 ERA. He's doing it without striking out a lot of batters, but he's also kept the ball in park, allowing just three home runs. Peavy went through a rough patch the first two weeks of June, but broke out of it with eight scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers his last time out.

The Twins are only 3-7 over their last ten games and turn to Johan Santana to right the ship today. He'll face the Brewers' Toma Ohka in Milwaukee. Santana's opponents are actually getting on base less than they did against him last year, but they are hitting for more power, .373 vs. .315. That's moving the runners farther, leading to a higher ERA. Ohka's totally changed his control numbers in his first two starts for the Brewers. With the Nationals, he walked 27 and struck out 17. With Milwaukee, he's walked 1 and struck out 10. That's a much better formula for success.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 24, 2005
Game of the Day

The Mets and Yankees resume their subway series with a dandy pitching matchup as Pedro Martinez faces Mike Mussina. Pedro is doing just about everything right this season; high strikeouts, low walks, low home runs allowed, and on top of that he's not giving up hits either. Although his ERA is slightly higher away from Shea, in many ways he's pitched better on the road. Mike's strikeout totals are growing. He's fanned 19 batters in his last 21 1/3 innings over three starts. He was averaging 5.8 K per 9 before that.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2005
Games of the Day

Dontrelle Willis pitched seven shutout innings in his last start, but it wasn't enough to bring the Marlins a victory. With the Marlins on 24 inning scoreless streak, Dontrelle may need the best game of his season to win. He'll face Jorge Sosa, recently moved from the pen to the rotation due to the many Braves injuries. The Marlins need to be patient with Sosa, as he's walked 22 in 33 1/3 innings. Still, it hasn't hurt him much, as his ERA stands at 2.70.

The Tigers are only 2 1/2 games behind the Twins, and they'll send Jason Johnson to face Carlos Silva in Minnesota this afternoon. Johnson's improved his ERA each month this season and has a 1.82 ERA in June. The Twins have only scored six runs in their last four games and Lew Ford drove in half of those. It's been a team effort.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2005
Games of the Day

In an odd bit of scheduling, the Devil Rays face the Yankees on a Wednesday afternoon in the middle of a four game series. The pitching match up of Kazmir and Pavano isn't all that compelling, but seeing how the two teams play after last night's 8th inning is. I'm sure the Yankees hitters can't wait to get back to the plate, while the Devil Rays barely had time to sleep off the loss.

Boston goes for a sweep of the Indians in Cleveland this evening. The Indians were the hottest team in the majors when the Red Sox came to town on Monday. The Tribe's pitching was superb during their 13-1 run, posting a 2.41 ERA. The Red Sox, however, can hit, and that same Cleveland staff allowed 18 runs in their 18 innings vs. Boston. The two victories moved the Red Sox into the lead for the AL Wild Card.

Tonight, Wade Miller faces Cliff Lee. Lee's big improvement this season is his control. He's issued just 23 walks in 83 2/3 innings. He walked over 4 per 9 innings through the 2004 season, just 2.5 this year.

Finally, Jason Schmidt and the Giants host the Diamondbacks this evening. There are lots of trade rumors surrounding Schmidt and teams will want to see if his last start vs. the Tigers (0 runs over 8 innings) was a turnaround or a fluke in a bad year. Jason's ERA against the Diamondbacks is 4.61 this season in two starts.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2005
Games of the Day

Ryan Drese gets his second start for the Washington Nationals today as they continue their visit to Pittsburgh. Drese, after being released by the Rangers, pitched eight shutout innings against the Angels in his Nationals debut. He'll face struggling lefty Oliver Perez. Oliver looked like he turned things around in his first two June starts, but was pounded for six runs by the Yankees his last time out. He's been hit hard all year; opponents are slugging .505 against him vs. .359 in 2004.

The Blue Jays are trying to stay close in the AL East and will go for another win vs. the division leading Orioles this evening. Rodrigo Lopez faces Gustavo Chacin. Despite having identical 3-1 records, Lopez's ERA balloons three runs on the road, from 2.68 to 5.98. With four home runs allowed in 82 1/3 innings. Chacin is 2nd to Kenny Rogers in home runs allowed per 9 IP.

The Marlins and Braves offer the best pitching matchup of the evening as Burnett takes on Smoltz. Burnett is pitching better than his 4-4 record would indicate. Before getting the victory in the 15-5 blow out of the Cubs on the 15th, Burnett had pitched four games in a row in which he managed a no-decision, despite pitching well enough to win all of them. Smoltz can tell a similar story. A 3.14 ERA deserves better than a 6-5 record. The Braves have lost four games this season in which Smoltz pitched well enough to win.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2005
Games of the Day

As the teams return to intraleague play, there are a number of exciting division and wild card matchups this evening.

The Red Sox and Indians each send a lefty to the mound as C.C. Sabathia host David Wells in Cleveland. Wells pitched in superb mode his last two starts, not allowing any runs in 15 innings and only five hits. He's 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA vs. NL teams this season. He's 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA vs. AL teams. There a deep chasm between what Sabathia's allowed with the bases empty and runners on. Opponents are hitting 99 points higher once men reach and up to .345 with men in scoring position.

The Rangers visit Anaheim to battle the Angels for first place in the AL West. Chris Young gets the nod for the Rangers. Chris only allowed four home runs this season. In his brief stint in the majors last year he gave up seven in just 36 1/3 innings. With his 2.78 ERA, the Rangers have two pitchers in the top 5 among AL leaders. An impressive feat given their home ballpark. The Angels send Paul Byrd to the mound. Byrd is getting pounded by lefties ths season, who are slugging .511 off the righty. Given the Rangers roster, Buck can't stack too many lefties into his lineup; looks like he can get five in there with switch hitters.

The other Los Angeles team, the Dodgers, travels out to San Diego to battle the Padres for the NL West. A sweep of the four game series would put LA 1/2 game behind San Diego. Brad Penny faces Jake Peavy this evening. Penny's given up 13 runs and 28 hits in his last 18 1/3 innings for a 6.38 June ERA. He's only walked 2 so his control is not the problem; he's just not fooling anybody. This will be Peavy's first start against the Dodgers this season. In nine starts against LA in his career, he's 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees go for the sweep today as they finish up their series with the Chicago Cubs. Sergio Mitre takes the mound for Chicago against Mike Mussina of the Yankees. Mitre enters the game with a 16 inning scoreless streak. In that time, he's allowed just seven hits and one walk while striking out nine. Mussina is coming off his best game of the season, a complete game shutout of the Pirates. Mussina's only walked 2 in his last 15 innings.

A good pitching matchup in Boston as well. Kip Wells of the Pirates faces Matt Clement of the Red Sox. Clement does not have a stellar record vs. the Bucs. In 19 starts he's just 7-6 vs. a Pirate team that has not been high caliber. His 4.58 ERA is strange given that:

  • He's struck out quite a few Pirates.
  • He gives up very few home runs.
  • His walk total is a little high, but not given the number he's striking out.

Bad luck or bad defense?

Kip Wells success depends on keeping the opposition from getting hits. He's allowed a .342 OBA this season, but only a .244 batting average. People get on, but they don't move around the bases easily. That didn't work against the Yankees last time out, and it might not work against the Red Sox.

The Washington Nationals send Esteban Loaiza to the mound to prevent a sweep by the Texas Rangers. C.J. Wilson makes the first start of his major league career for the Rangers. Loaiza pitched eight games this year where his effort was good enough to win, but he ended up with a no decision. The bullpen's been fine, it's the offense that hasn't given him enough support, scoring just 25 runs in his 14 starts while he's been on the mound.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2005
Games of the Day

Although we won't be seeing it in New England, Fox is carrying a great game this afternoon as Dontrelle Willis goes for his 12th win against John Lackey and the Angels. One of the things that's helped Dontrelle achieve those 11 wins is his results with men on base. The opposition is hitting just .188 with men on and .206 with men in scoring position. He's not allowed a hit with the bases loaded; batters are 0 for 5 with 1 walk and just two rbi. The Marlins have won just 6 of their last 17 games, and three of those wins were credited to Dontrelle.

John Lackey lowered his ERA from 5.61 at the end of April to 3.99 today. He's struck out 49 in 52 1/3 innings since the start of May.

Roy Halladay continues to pitch like a Cy Young award winner. He'll have a tough matchup today as the Blue Jays host Ben Sheets and the Brewers. Sheets has a losing record despite a good ERA. Sheets allowed 26 runs so far this season, but the Brewers only scored 19 while he was in the game. The last time Halladay allowed more than two runs in a game was May 4th. Since then he's made seven starts and posted a 0.97 ERA. Just two balls left the park against him in that span.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2005
Games of the Day

There are so many good pitching matchups tonight, I'm only going to mention the Cubs at Yankees for its historical significance. Maybe Derrek Lee will call a shot!

The Diamondbacks play the Indians tonight, and Brad Halsey faces Cliff Lee in a battle of lefties. Halsey had some criticism of the Yankees farm system recently.

"You win 17 games and you can't even get an invite to spring training," Halsey said of the Yankees. "They don't know who a lot of their minor leaguers are, which is unfortunate."

When Halsey was promoted, he introduced himself to manager Joe Torre and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, and Halsey said neither recognized him. But that didn't bother him as much as the chatter he heard in the minors from prospects who wanted out because they knew their careers would be stifled if they didn't move up the ladder at a decent pace quickly.

Brad's been working with Mark Davis to correct his current slump. Meanwhile, Cliff Lee has become the Indians ace. Since May 11, Cliff has a 2.03 ERA and he's only allowed 3 home runs in his last seven starts.

The Nationals visit the penultimate team to play in Washington, the Texas Rangers. John Patterson goes against Kenny Rogers in a battle of pitchers with ERAs in the low twos. Rogers had his first bad outing of the year last time out vs. the Marlins, allowing a rare home runs. Patterson has allowed exactly 1 run in each of the three starts he's made since returning from his injury.

The Astros visit the Red Hot Royals this evening, and if a Friday night and Roger Clemens don't bring out the crowds, nothing will. Roger will face J.P. Howell, who pitched brilliantly in his ML debut, striking out eight in five innings.

The reeling Padres travel to the land of 10000 lakes to face the injury ridden Twins. Tim Stauffer hurls for the southern Californians. Like most Padre starters, Tim does not go deep into games and depends on the bullpen for his wins. Carlos Silva does not strike out many, but his walks and home runs allowed are so low, even all the balls in play don't hurt him much. It will be interesting to see how he does with a make shift middle infield this evening.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2005
Games of the Day

Two matchups tonight pit aging veterans vs. young pitchers on the rise. In New York, it's a battle of struggling lefties as Oliver Perez faces Randy Johnson. At the start of the season, I would have looked forward to this game. Johnson, however, hasn't been right. His strikeouts are down, and his last start was his first dominating one since the end of April. He's already allowed 12 home runs after giving up 18 all of last season. And the move to Yankee Stadium should have lowered his homers allowed.

Oliver Perez is striking out a ton of batters, but when they make contact the balls are falling in. Perez's K per 9 in down this season, but still above 9 per 9 IP. Yet his batting average allowed is up sixty points! Is the Pittsburgh defense that much worse? He is allowed more long hits as well. He's given up 16 homers vs. 22 all last season. Both power lefties showed improvement in their previous starts; we'll see if it continues tonight.

John Smoltz and the Braves invade Cincinnati this evening to take on Brandon Claussen and the Reds. Smoltz's strikeouts are dropping. Over his last four starts his K per 9 is 5.3, and his ERA is 4.45. That's a bad sign. Claussen's been solid in three of his last four starts. He'll have to be if the Reds offense keeps struggling as they did against Boston.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2005
Game of the Day

The Diamondbacks go for the sweep of the Chicago White Sox tonight. They'll send Russ Ortiz against 10-game winner Jon Garland. The DBacks have outscored the White Sox 18-5 in these two games. Ortiz is walking over 5 batters per 9 innings, one of six pitchers with 60 innings over 5.0. The White Sox are not much of a walking team, ranking 8th in the AL in drawing free passes, so at least Ortiz is playing to their strength. Garland is at the other end of the scale, walking only 1.46 per 9. It's a good thing, since the DBacks are 2nd in the NL in drawing walks. Take away the walks, and you reduce Arizona to it's batting average, which is a managable .264. Arizona has outwalked the White Sox 7-1 in this series so far.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2005
Games of the Day

The Astros and Orioles offer one of the best pitching matchups of the day as Andy Pettitte faces Bruce Chen. With four innings tonight, Andy will match his total for last season. The difference in health can be seen in his control; he's walked about 1/2 the batters he did last season. Chen's been giving the Orioles solid six inning performances. He hasn't gotten solid relief from the bullpen, however, who have given up 20 earned runs in 26 2/3 inning in relief of Bruce.

The Mets visit the site of their 1973 World Series defeat. Leading 3 games to 2, the Mets lost games six and seven in Oakland to hand the A's their second world championship in their run of three. Reggie Jackson went 4 for 8 in the two games and Hunter out pitched Seaver in game six.

It won't be Hunter and Seaver tonight as Tom Glavine faces Joe Blanton. Blanton's already given up 11 homers this year and has more walks than strikeouts. Glavine's allowed a .356 BA and a .481 slugging percentage with men on base this season.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2005
Games of the Day

1975 Will be revisited in Boston tonight as the Red Sox host the Reds in a rematch of the World Series of that year. And things are shaping up to be a slugfest. The Reds lead the majors with 22 home runs in the month of June. Red Sox starter Matt Clement gave up just 1 homer in April, 1 in May, but 3 in June. Reds starter Eric Milton has served up 22 gopher balls this season, four more than any other pitcher.

On the West Coast, a battle of first place clubs as the Angels host the Nationals. Vlad Guerrero gets to visit with some of his old teammates on the team formerly known as the Expos. Vlad is 5 for 12 since his return from the DL, but without an extra-base hit. Junior Spivey has a great line since joining the Nats; 1 for 6 with three walks and a homer for a .444 OBA and a .667 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

Correction: As pointed out in the comments, Vlad had 2 walks since his return from the DL.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2005
Games of the Day

A nice matchup in New York today as John Lackey and the Angels face Pedro Martinez and the Mets. Pedro pitched very well against the Angels during his stay in Boston, accumulating a 9-1 record with a 2.12 ERA. Watch Lackey starting around the fourth inning. His opponents start hitting him for power then. Their batting average goes up 28 points in innings 4-6 compared to innings 1-3, but their slugging percentage goes up over 100 points. John may not be changing his pitching pattern enough the second time through the order.

The Royals at the Diamondbacks offers a very good pitching matchup as D.J. Carrasco faces Brandon Webb. Although the Royals lost 3 of his 5 starts, Carrasco's had only one bad outing. He's allowed just 2 runs in his last 21 innings. Webb's been pounded by lefties this season. They're hitting .313 against him with a .494 slugging percentage. Six of the seven homers he's allowed came off the bats of lefty batters. The Royals could start up to six lefties against Webb today.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 11, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees and Cardinals go at it again in St. Louis as two off season pickups face each other in a battle of lefties. Randy Johnson takes the hill against Mark Mulder. Johnson is not pitching badly but is certainly not dominant. In his last five outings, his time in the game is short,, his strikeouts are low, his hits allowed are high, and teams are scoring. Mulder hasn't been lights out either. He's had high moments (10 inning shutout) and low moments his last start against the Astros.

Two old lefties face each other in Miami as Kenny Rogers throws his league leading 1.62 ERA against the Marlins and Al Leiter. Rogers went seven innings in each of his last three starts, allowing 1 run in each. For Leiter, this is the first time in his career that he's had 20 or more innings pitched and walked more than he struck out.

The Best pitching matchup of the day is in Houston, where Toronto sends Gustavo Chacin against NL ERA leader Roger Clemens. Chacin ranks fifth in the AL in ERA, thanks to his ability to keep the ball in the park. He's allowed just four home runs this season and none in his last five starts. Clemens had his worst outing of the year in his last start, but won as the Astros finally gave him some run support. And as good as Chacin's been at keeping the ball in the park, Clemens has been better, allowing only three dingers all season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 10, 2005
Red Sox-Cubs

Tim Kurkjian looks at the history of the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day

I need to hit the road, so a short and sweet GOTD today.

The big game of the day find the Boston Red Sox visiting the Chicago Cubs for the first time since the 1918 World Series. WGN is doing a special 1/2 hour lead in to the game called Return of the Red Sox (1:30 PM Eastern for those you receive the channel). It's a good matchup as Bronson Arroyo face Greg Maddux.

The Yankees visit the Cardinals this evening. St. Louis is the one NL team that's had success against New York long term in the World Series. They've won three of the five series contested between the two teams.

A battle of first place teams in the West as the White Sox visit the Padres. They're also the best teams in one-run games, so maybe it will be a close one.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 06:55 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 09, 2005
Games of the Day

Andy Pettitte makes a New York start this evening in a battle of veteran lefties. Tom Glavine opposes the former Yankee at Shea as the Mets host the Astros. Pettitte is pitching well, allowing under 2 walks per nine innings and less than a home run per 9. Of course, like Clemens, the Astros aren't scoring for Andy either, leading to his 3-6 record. Imagine what Pettitte and Clemens could do for the Yankees this year!

Piazza's wrist does not appear to be badly injured, but it's not clear when he'll play again. The Mets have a number of players on day-to-day status, so don't look for a lot of substitutions this evening. Glavine's season can be divided into two parts; through May 8th he was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA. Since he's been 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA. Glavine cut his walks from 5.9 per nine in the early period to 1.4 per 9 in his last five starts.

The Twins go for a sweep of the Diamondbacks tonight in Phoenix as they send Kyle Lohse against Javier Vazquez. Lohse is pitching well after a terrible start. In his last six games he's posted a 2.70 ERA, lowering his ERA from 6.25 to 4.45. Vazquez, after a stretch of not giving up any long balls, he's allowed three in his last two starts. The Phillies got four runs off homers in Javier's last outing.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 08, 2005
Games of the Day

Roy Halladay and Dontrelle Willis each attempt to become their league's first ten game winner today. Halladay gets the first shot, as the Blue Jays go for the sweep vs. the Cubs at Wrigley. Roy is on a five game winning streak in which he's posted a 0.68 ERA. He's allowed no home runs in his last four starts. He'll face Sergio Mitre. The youngster is not striking out batters this season; just 6 in 17 innings. The balls in play are finding holes as he's allowed the opposition a .325 batting average.

Willis faces the Mariners and Gil Meche. The Marlins are 2-11 over their last 13, including 5 one-run losses. They've been outscored 70-40 over that streak. Willis makes his third start of this downturn; he's 1-1 in the period, and could have won both games.

The best pitching matchup of the day is in Atlanta, where the Braves send Tim Hudson vs. the Angels' Kelvim Escobar. Hudson has pitched his best at Turner Field his season, allowing a 2.34 ERA vs. 3.93 on the road. He's allowed fewer baserunners and less extra-base hits at home despite facing more batters there. Escobar is making just his 7th start for the Angels, but in his previous six he's struck out 43 batters. Among pitchers with 36 innings, only Johan Santana strikes out more per 9 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 07, 2005
Games of the Day

The pitching matchup of the night takes place in New York where Roy Oswalt is scheduled to battle Pedro Martinez. Oswalt, like Clemens, is sometimes lacking in run support. Three times he's made starts in which the Astros were shutout, and once they scored just a single run. Pedro is on a Pedro roll, allowing just two runs in his last 23 innings while striking out 25 and walking just 1.

The Angels and Braves face off tonight in Atlanta, each without the services of their big slugger. Chipper Jones went on the DL yesteray. Wilson Betemit is filling in, and is off to a good start in June at 9 for 18. Garrett Anderson and Dallas McPherson picked up the power since Vlad's injury, each contributing eight extra-base hits since 5/21. McPherson batted just .218 before Guererro went down, .276 since with an excellent slugging percentage.

The battle of the Interleague Wild Cards takes place in Phoenix where the Diamondbacks host the Twins. Brad Radke will face Shawn Estes. Estes pitched one game this year in which he didn't walk a batter; Radke hurled nine such games. Morneau and Mauer returned against the Yankees, but neither are 100%. Mauer can pinch hit and Morneau can play the field. They'll be evaluated today and may be in the starting lineup.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 06, 2005
Games of the Day

The NL East race is the closest I've seen in quite some time. All five teams are over .500, and 1 1/2 games separate the top team, Washington, from the bottom, the Marlins. The Phillies try to gain ground once again this afternoon as they host the Diamondbacks in the last game of their four game series. Brandon Webb will try to prevent the sweep and keep the Diamondbacks in second place in the NL West. Webb's control has returned this season. After walking 119 in 2004 and allowing a .353 OBA, he's only walked 22 so far this year and his OBA allowed is .321.

He'll face Cory Lidle. The Phillies have only lost one of Lidle's starts since April 25. Over those eight games, Lidle has only allowed 12 walks and 3 home runs.

The big game of the evening is the World Series rematch between the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are once again the class of the NL, but the surging Cubs are cutting into their once comfortable lead. The Red Sox have work to do to get to the playoffs; they are second in the division and third in the wild card race.

Tim Wakefield faces off against Matt Morris. Wakefield isn't throwing the knuckler over the plate lately. In his last five starts he's walked 21 in 28 2/3 innings while striking out 17. That's led to a 1-4 record and a 7.85 ERA.

Matt Morris is undefeated at 6-0, although the Cardinals have lost all three games in which he didn't get a decision. The record isn't surprising, since Morris gets the best run support per 9 innings in the NL, 7.78. In fact, four Cardinals starters are in the top 12.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:36 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 05, 2005
Games of the Day

Roger Clemens and Mark Mulder meet again this afternoon in Houston. The last time they faced off, Mulder threw a ten-inning shutout, only the 2nd in 15 years. Clemens continues to pitch amazingly well for any age. He also continues to lose or get no decisions. Clemens has allowed just 12 runs this season, but the Astros have scored only 16 with Roger on the mound. Four times he's started games in which the Astros failed to score at all.

Mulder's offense has scored 54 times with him on the mound, more than enough for the 33 runs Mark has seen cross the plate. Mulder has been vulnerable with men in scoring position this season, allowing a .321 BA and a .500 slugging percentage.

The Washington Nationals go for a sweep of the Marlins this afternoon. A.J. Burnett takes the hill against John Patterson. Both have sub-3.00 ERAs. Four of the five home runs hit against Burnett this season have come on the road. Patterson hasn't allowed any in his ballpark, and only one for the entire season so far.

Mark Buehrle goes for his 8th win as the unstoppable White Sox try to sweep the Indians. He'll face C.C. Sabathia. Buehrle is 1 1/3 innings behind Livan Hernandez for most innings pitched this century. The Indians have only scored 14 runs in losing their first four games in June.

Finally, Carlos Zambrano visits PETCO Park and Jake Peavy as the Cubs face the Padres. Zambrano allowed just 1 home run in his last six starts while striking out 41 in 41 1/3 innings. You can hit Peavy for power at PETCO this year; he's allowed a .410 slugging percentage at home vs. just .287 on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 04, 2005
Games of the Day

A nice matchup in Boston today as Bartolo Colon and the Angels face Bronson Arroyo and the Red Sox. If I worked for Elias, I'd wonder how many times pitchers with two O's in their first and last names have faced each other. The Red Sox are coming off two straight victories with late inning hits; a walk off homer by Ortiz Thursday and a bottom of the 8th tie-breaking double by Damon last night. Damon is hitting .407 from the 7th inning on this season (24/59).

Colon appears to have solved the problem that plagued him the last two seasons: home runs. In 2003-2004, he allowed 1.36 home runs per 9. This season, he's lowered that to 0.72 home runs per 9, nearly cutting it in half.

They'll play a double header in Philadelphia today, but it appears the teams are going for a split. Game 1 features Javier Vazquez vs. Vincente Padilla, while Buddy Myers hosts Russ Ortiz in game 2. I'd want my two best pitchers to face each other in game 1, then try to have my offense pound the weaker starter in game 2. The Diamondbacks have a good chance of beating Padilla with Ortiz, so why not try to beat Myers with Vazquez? (Assuming the Phillies cooperate.)

The Pirates try to continue their good play against the leaders of the NL East as they host Atlanta at PNC Park tonight. Kyle Davies has an impressive ERA in three starts for the Braves. He's striking out better than a batter an inning, but he's also giving up lots of hits to lefties and quite a few walks overall. I'm not sure he's as good as his ERA indicates. Mark Redman is posting the best ERA of his career. Like Colon, he's taking advantage of the drop in power this season. He's only allowed three home runs this season after giving up 28 in 2004.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 03, 2005
Games of the Day

The Washington Nationals continue their quest for the NL title at RFK tonight. After taking three of four from the first place Braves, they'll host the first place Marlins in a three game set. It's a great matchup tonight, as Josh Beckett faces Livan Hernandez. Beckett is a different pitcher away from Miami. This season, his ERA is three runs higher, due mostly to his batting average allowed being 100 points higher. That is strange, however, because he strikes out batters at a higher rate on the road. Maybe it's harder to play defense away from Dolphins Stadium.

Livan Hernandez continues to be the iron man of the team and the league. His 82 1/3 innings is tied with Roy Oswalt for the NL lead, and Livan should have that to himself after tonight. Since the start of 2003, he leads all pitchers with 570 2/3 frames on the mound.

Two hot teams meet on the West Coast as the surging Cubs take on the May Maulers, the San Diego Padres. Derrek Lee continues to pound the ball; in six of his last seven games he's had multiple hits, a total of 19 (nearly three hits a game). Phil Nevin has a nine game hit streak for the Padres in which he's driven in 11 runs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2005
Games of the Day

The Red Sox and the Orioles finish up their four game series this afternoon at Fenway. With a victory today, the Orioles would take three out of four from the Red Sox, further cementing their lead in the AL East and giving them at least a 4 1/2 game cushion as they try to recover from their injuries. Hayden Penn faces Matt Clement. Clement is 6-0 and the Red Sox have lost only one of his last nine starts. He's been super at Fenway, posting a 2.86 ERA and walking just five in 34 2/3 innings. Shouldn't a pitcher named Penn be a reliever? :-)

It's DWI night in Pittsburgh as Dontrelle Willis faces Dave Williams. Williams doesn't go deep in games, but he's been effective. He averages just six innings a start. He had a very good month of May, going 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA. He only allowed 2 homers in 31 1/3 innings. Dontrelle lost two of his last three starts, but has pitched well nonetheless, raising his ERA from 1.08 to 1.67 over that time. Having allowed only two homers in 70 innings, the opposition is slugging just .291 vs. the D-Train in 2005.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2005
Games of the Day

Randy Johnson faces D.J. Carrasco and the Royals this evening. This is a chance for Johnson to get back on track. The Royals offense is pitiful. They are scoring just 4.1 runs per game, third worst in the American League. They're also 4th in strikeouts, which should play to Randy's strength. In the 17 2/3 innings he's thrown so far this season, Carrasco's walks are down, but so are his strikeouts. He shut down the Angels and DRays, but was pounded by the Orioles. I would expect the Yankees to be more likely to pound him than not.

The Indians try to gain a little more ground on the Twins tonight as Cliff Lee faces Brad Radke. Lee has not allowed a home run in his last three starts. Brad's had a tough time away from the Metrodome this season. He has a 5.13 ERA and has allowed eight homers in 33 1/3 innings. The Indians have won 8 of their last 10 and have outscored their opponents 46-28 in that time.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 31, 2005
Games of the Day

Brad Halsey returns to New York this evening as the Diamondbacks visit the Mets at Shea Stadium. Both teams are within three games of first place in their respective divisions. With Brad's ERA at 3.34, he's put up a better mark than any regular Yankees starter this season. Halsey has cut back on the walks this season; last year he issued 14 free passes in just 32 IP; in 2005, he's up to 12 in 59 1/3 frames.

He'll be opposed by Kris Benson. Since being ripped by his former team and New York pundits, Benson's posted a 3-0 record and a 2.29 ERA. He's walked too many in that time, but he's only allowed 1 home run.

The Indians are slowly chipping away at their division rivals, and get another chance to gain ground tonight as they face the Twins. They'll face Carlos Silva, one of the stingiest pitchers when it comes to walks on the Twins staff.

Four of the Twins' five starters -- Carlos Silva (.30), Brad Radke (.36), Johan Santana (1.19) and Kyle Lohse (1.65) are in the top 10 in the American League in fewest walks per nine innings.

The Twins also lead the majors by holding opponents to a .292 on-base percentage, as well as with a 3.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Carlos goes against the big lefty, C.C. Sabathia. This will be Milliliter's fourth start against Minnesota this season. He's walked 10 in 18 2/3 innings against the Twins, 5 in 27 2/3 innings vs. all other clubs.

A very nice pitching matchup on the West Coast tonight as Wes Obermueller faces undefeated Jake Peavy. Obermueller started two games, fared poorly, went back to the bullpen, and now is in the rotation again. He's greatly improved in his last two starts, allowing just 1 run and five hits in fourteen innings. Peavy has not allowed a run in his last 17 innings pitched, including a bullpen saving complete game his last time out. He's striking out over six times the number of men he's walking this season.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 30, 2005
Games of the Day

The Washington Nationals are going through a rough stretch right now, but at .500 they're hanging in the division race. Three and a half games behind the Braves and Marlins, they host Atlanta this afternoon in the nation's capital. Kyle Davies takes the mound for the Braves, and the rookie has not allowed a run in two five-inning starts. He's not being economical at all, going over 90 pitches in each start, but he has struck out 12 in 10 1/3 innings. Tomo Ohka hurls for Washington. Ohka has walked 21 and struck out 16 this season, but he's turned that around lately, striking out 6 and walking 2 in his last two appearances.

After sweeping the lowly Royals, the Angels fly to Chicago to play the top of the division as they face Mark Buehrle and the White Sox. Jarrod Washburn takes the hill for the Angels. Washburn's road ERA is 2.11, five runs lower than his home ERA this season. It's not clear why, but he's allowed many more hits in Anaheim. Buehrle's last start saw him go nine four-hit innings vs. the Angels, a game won 2-1 by Chicago in extra innings.

The big division battle of the day takes place at Fenway. The Red Sox retook 2nd place with two decisive wins over the New York Yankees. They stand three game behind the Orioles as the two teams open up a four game series. Rodrigo Lopez faces Bronson Arroyo. Lopez has tumbled in May after a fine start in April. He's pitched the same number of innings in both months, but his strikeouts have falled from 26 to 13. At the same time, he's doubled the number of homers allowed from 2 to 4. Arroyo's strikeouts have fallen precipitously from 7.2 K/9 in 2004 to 4.9 in 2005. So far it hasn't translated into a higher batting average allowed or ERA.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2005
Games of the Day

The Phillies, despite their disappointing start, are only four games back in the NL East, although still in last place. Their division is proving to be very close this season. They go for their fourth win in a row and a sweep of the Braves this afternoon as they send Brett Myers against Tim Hudson. Myers comes into today 3rd in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts in the National League. His K/BB is 4.35, 5th in the NL. Lefties are hitting for power off Hudson his year, as he's allowing a .519 slugging percentage against the sinister hitters. It might be a good day for Jim Thome to show his power.

The Blue Jays are starting to fade in the AL East, and send Roy Halladay against Joe Mays of the Twins to try to stop the fall. Halladay is coming off his first long rest of the season; he hasn't pitched since May 21. He's currently fifth in the AL in ERA; the Blue Jays were trying to send him to the mound every fifth day, but a strained muscle sidelined him for a couple of days. It's a good plan as long as they can keep him healthy.

Mays is trying to get through the season with everyone putting the ball in play. He only has 18 strikeouts this season in 53 1/3 innings, but he's also only walked 12. He did have a complete game shutout vs. the Blue Jays 10 days ago, allowing only seven hits while striking out 2.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 28, 2005
Games of the Day

The Yankees and Red Sox are streaking in different directions as they face each other in game two of their Memorial Day weekend series. The Yankees have won five in a row while the Sox are on a four game skid. Undefeated Matt Clement will face 4-2 Carl Pavano in a matchup of winter pickups. The Red Sox have only lost 1 of Clement's starts, his poorest of the season in which he allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings. Even in that one, however, the Red Sox scored eight to prevent Matt from taking the loss. Clement has only allowed two home runs this season, ranking him 2nd in the AL behind Kenny Rogers in home runs per 9 innings at 0.28.

Pavano is coming off back to back starts in which he lowered his ERA from 4.80 to 3.69. Clement's strength is Pavano's weakness. Only Lima and Radke in the AL have allowed more home runs this season than Carl's 11.

The surging Rangers and Chan Ho Park host the first place White Sox as Chicago continues their tour of the best in the west. Texas is on a seven game winning streak and will have to face 8-1 Jon Garland. While Park has shown flashes of excellence at times, he's mostly pitched well enough to keep the powerful Rangers offense in the game. Garland has been extremely effective vs. left-handed batters this season, allowing just a .241 BA, a .282 OBA and a meager .353 slugging percentage. He was equally effective against lefties and righties last year as well; he just allowed much higher averages.

Ben Sheets returns to the Brewers rotation this evening as the Brewers host the Astros. Milwaukee played well without Ben starting, going 19-14 in his absence. Keep an eye on Ben to see if the ear infection has effected his balance. He'll face Ezequiel Astacio who has so far posted a 10.61 ERA, 11.21 in his starts. He's allowed 8 homers in 18 2/3 innings, so if you like the long ball, Miller Park is the place to be tonight.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2005
Games of the Day

The Red Sox hit New York tonight trailing the Yankees by 1/2 a game in the AL East. It will be a game of contrasts as Tim Wakefield faces Randy Johnson; lefty vs. righty and fast vs. slow. Johnson has struggled lately, only striking out 12 in his last 20 2/3 innings. Wakefield has become hittable himself, allowing 19 safties in his last two starts, and 11 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. Toss a coin, this could be a duel or a blow out.

The Dodgers visit the Diamondbacks for three games starting tonight, and the boys in blue need a sweep to pull even the snakes. Los Angeles sends their most consistent starter, Derek Lowe to the mound against Shawn Estes. Lowe's shown great control this season, walking just 14 in 65 2/3 innings. Estes has been very good at holding runners this season. There have only been two stolen base attempts against the lefties, and only one of them has succeeded.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2005
Games of the Day

The Twins-Indians series keeps serving up gems. Tonight, Brad Radke takes on CC Sabathia. Radke's in a bit of a slump, having walked one batter in each of his last two starts, bringing his total to three for the year. :-) The Twins have given Milliliter trouble this season. He's walked five against Minnesota in 10 innings; he's walked five against all other opponents in 27 2/3 innings.

Toronto can move past the Red Sox into second place in the AL East with a win tonight. Gustavo Chacin hosts Wade Miller. The Blue Jays are hitting .335 with 11 homers against the Red Sox this season. Their nearly 7 runs a game vs. the Red Sox have allowed them to accumulate a 5-2 record head-to-head despite a 5.08 ERA.

The Padres try to take back the NL West lead against the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. It's an excellent pitching matchup as Jake Peavy face Brandon Webb. Both are undefeated, and both are pitching very well. Peavy needs to give the Padres a long outing tonight as the bullpen has been stretched very thin recently. Webb pitches well vs. the Padres but doesn't have much to show for it. His 2.96 ERA in seven starts only yielded him a 1-2 record. Peavy has a 6.94 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks, but pitched much better against them since the start of last year.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 25, 2005
Games of the Day

A quick one today as I'm out for the rest of the morning. The Twins and Indians face off again today in game 3 of their 4 game series. Carlos Silva faces Kevin Millwood. They have nearly indentical ERAs, good enough to have won most of their games. But Silva has only gotten 23 runs in support, Millwood 21.

The Blue Jays try to gain another game on the Red Sox in a battle of fine youngsters as Bronson Arroyo faces Gustavo Chacin. Arroyo has already faced the Blue Jays twice this season and has allowed only 3 runs in 13 innings. Chacin has struggled in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs in 13 1/3 innings. Twenty five batters have reached by a hit or walk during that period.

San Diego and Arizona battle for first in the NL West again as Darrell May face Brad Halsey. This is May's third start of the year; he has a 5.19 ERA beginning the game as opposed to a 3.68 ERA in relief. After two mediocre outings, Halsey pitched a no-strikeout, no-walk game against the Astros in which he allowed just 1 run in seven innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 24, 2005
Games of the Day

Another great pitching matchup in Florida tonight as Brett Myers faces Josh Beckett. Myers strikeouts are way up this season. Through 2004 he struck out 6.0 batters per 9. That's up to 10.3 per 9 this season. That's probably 1.3 hits per game that he's eliminating with his high K numbers. Beckett, with one home run allowed this season is first in the NL in HR per 9 at 0.16.

Sergio Mitre gets the pleasure of getting called up to face Roger Clemens as the Astros visit the Cubs. Mitre has been hittable in his brief major league appearances, allowing 71 hits in 51 1/3 innings. Clemens has only allowed 10 runs in his nine starts, but the Astros have only scored 14 with Clemens on the mound.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:32 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 23, 2005
Games of the Day

If the Cleveland Indians are going to climb back into the AL playoff race, this week is a good time to start. They're 11 out of first in the Central but just six out of the wild card, and they're playing the leading Twins in a four game series. The Indians have held their own vs. the Twins this year, splitting six games so far. That's been a bit of luck as they've been outscored by Minnesota 25-17 in those games. Looks like it could be a high scoring contest tonight as Scott Elarton hosts Kyle Lohse. It seems balls in play off Elarton are turning into hits very easily, as opponents are batting .386 off Scott. Lohse had three bad outings to start the season, but has been bringing his ERA steadily down since then.

It's first vs. last in the NL East tonight as the Marlins host the Phillies. It's a good pitching matchup as Jon Lieber faces Dontrelle Willis. Lieber's ERA has ballooned 1.5 runs over his last two starts. It's not clear what's changed, except that more balls are falling in for hits. Willis has not lost at home this season, and is posting a 0.69 ERA in Miami.

Finally, first meets first as the White Sox travel to Anaheim to play the Angels. Jon Garland puts his 8-0 record on the line vs. a Vlad-less Angels lineup. Garland's done a very good job this season of having opponents put the ball in play to his fielders. Without a lot of strikeouts, the opposition is hitting only .220 off Jon. Given that the Angels live by putting the ball in play, this should be an interesting matchup. He'll be opposed by Ervin "Magic" Santana who was hammered by the Indians in his first start (and if you get hammered by the Indians, you must have been pitching badly).

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 22, 2005
Games of the Day

The first round of interleague play finishes up today. There is an excellent pitching matchup in the Sea World game as Casey Fossum of the Devil Rays takes on Brian Moehler of the Marlins. Moehler does not quite qualify for the ERA leader board at this point, but if he maintains his 2.17 ERA after today he'll be in the top 5. Never much of a strikeout pitcher, Moehler has gotten good defensive work behind him this year, lowering his hits allowed. Fossum has had great strikeout numbers working out of the bullpen; he needs to see if he can keep that going in his starts.

The Yankees hope they are still Pedro's daddy as The Bronx meets Queens in the rubber game of the first subway series of the year. Pedro had a cortisone shot this week; I don't know if he's hurting of if the shot will help his pitching. Carl Pavano, coming off a complete game shutout, will face the Mets. Pavano has had mixed success at Shea; he's 3-4 but with a 3.86 ERA. He hasn't lost in Queens since October of 2001, however.

Matt Clement tries to hold on to his perfect record aganst John Smoltz and the Atlanta Braves in Boston this afternoon. Clement was roughed up by the Athletics his last time out, but the Boston offense bailed him out in the 8th with four runs. Smoltz has not allowed a home run in his last six starts and has a 1.74 ERA over that time.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2005
Games of the Day

It's tough to pick contests today, but I'll start with Washington at Toronto as Tony Armas, Jr. faces Roy Halladay. (Shouldn't MLB have changed the schedule to make Baltimore face Washington? And they could have send the Phillies against Toronto, since the Phillies were briefly called the Blue Jays and the two teams did meet in the World Series.)

Armas has pitched okay since coming off the DL. His strikeouts have not returned yet, however. Halladay has been up and down this season; six good starts, three poor ones. He has been in control, however, only walking 11 in 69 innings.

The Diamondbacks and Tigers look evenly matched today as Shawn Estes faces Nate Robertson. Estes usually needs a lot of bullpen help as he's usually has thrown over 90 pitches by the end of the 6th inning. Nate Robertson has been a victim of his defense this season. He's given up 10 unearned runs so far in 2005. It a big reason he has a good ERA but a poor record.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 20, 2005
Games of the Day

It's the first day of interleague play and the regional rivalries are up. The Red Sox get to see a familar face this evening as Tim Hudson and the Braves visit Fenway. The Braves will face another league switcher, Wade Miller. Hudson has not fared well during the regular season at Fenway. He's 1-3 with an 8.53 ERA and has walked an amazing 16 batters in 19 innings. Miller has not had success vs. the Braves. He's 1-3 with an evil 6.66 ERA against Atlanta.

All eyes will be on Texas tonight as the Rangers host the Astros and Kenny Rogers looks to extend his 30 inning scoreless streak. Rogers has been depending on his defense quite a bit during this run, as he's only striking out 3.6 batters per 9 innings. The Astros will send Brandon Backe to the mound. Backe's coming off a shutout of the Giants.

The I-70 series also features a nice matchup as Mark Mulder and the Cardinals visit Zach Greinke and the Royals. Mulder's done a great job of keeping batters off base with walks (13 in 55 innings) and off the plate with homers (just 2 allowed so far). Greinke is 0-4 despite a 3.09 ERA, 6th best in the AL. Zach has allowed 19 runs, but his teammates have only scored four this season when he's been on the mound. That's 1.35 runs per 9. It's tough to win with that kind of offense behind you.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2005
Games of the Day

The Devil Rays and Tigers finish up their series in Detroit with a nice matchup of young pitcher as Scott Kazmir faces Jeremy Bonderman. Kazmir is doing one thing poorly, walking batters. He's issuing free passes more than once every other inning. If Scott can get that down to 1 every three innings, it looks like he'll be fine. He has time to figure out that. That's what Bonderman did this season. Jeremy walked 3.4 per nine coming into 2005. This season, he's cut that to 2.3, and his ERA has dropped nearly two runs.

There's a matchup of former Yankees starters in Texas tonight as Brad Halsey and the Diamondbacks face Roger Clemens and the Astros. Clemens has gone at least seven innings in each start and has allowed 3 runs only once. Yet the Astros are only 3-5 in his starts. Halsey has faltered lately, with control becoming an issue. After walking 3 in his first six games, he's walked 8 in his last two.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 18, 2005
Games of the Day

If you'd like to spend the afternoon watching offense, the Reds-Mets game may be the place to be. It's a battle of high ERA lefties as Eric Milton bring his 7.21 ERA to Shea to face Tom Glavine and his 5.77 earned run average. Glavine turned in his third good performance of the year against the Cardinals in his last start. But overall, Glavine has as many walks as strikeouts, and he's walking one every other inning. That combined with a .309 batting average allowed has been pretty deadly for the veteran.

Milton is coming off a drubbing at the hand of his former team, the Phillies. Once again, home runs are the problem. He allowed 43 last year in just over 200 innings. The 14 he's allowed this year put him on a pace to allow 64 over 200 innings. Of course, if he continues to pitch this badly, it's unlikely he'll be around to toss that many frames.

Atlanta and San Diego resume their battle of the first place teams as the Braves send Horacio Ramirez to face Adam Eaton. With their win last night, San Diego now has the best record in the majors in 1-run games, 12-3. Eaton has pitched well, but he's also need help from the pen as he's averaged less than six innings a start. Ramirez is not striking out batters. His 3.74 per nine is below the point most pitchers are successful. Luckily, he has a defense behind him that is very good at turning batted balls into outs.

Finally, Milwaukee at Washington offers two teams doing better than expected. The Nationals are in third place, only two games back, and the Brewers are in 2nd place in the NL Central, five back of the Cardinals. Esteban Loaiza has pitched well but not won this season. He's only allowed 21 runs in his eight starts, but the team has only scored 13 times when he's on the mound. Esteban is going to need to start throwing shutouts. The Brewers are 6-2 when Chris Capuano starts, although he's not always around for the decision. He's been solid, but the Brewer's great bullpen has helped him out. The Milwaukee pen has posted a 2.28 ERA in Capuano's starts, allowing just 18 hits in 23 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2005
Games of the Day

Baseball fans have two chances to see a pitcher go 8-0 tonight. Jon Garland goes first as the White Sox host Texas and Pedro Astacio. Garland has done a remarkable job not only keeping hitters off base, but keeping them out of scoring position. Opponents have had 190 AB against Jon, but only 69 with runners on and only 35 with men in scoring position. (In general, AB with runners on make up a little less than half the at bats.) Astacio has also had few opponent at bats with men on (63) but he's been hammered in that situation, giving up a .365 BA and a .651 slugging percentage. He's giving up long hits when they can do the most damage.

The last game of the night features Dontrelle Willis going for his 8th win in 8 starts. Ken Rosenthal offers some insight into Dontrelle's improvement:

The biggest difference in Marlins LHP Dontrelle Willis is that he is pounding righthanders inside, holding them to a .196 batting average compared with .288 last season. Willis worked with new pitching coach Mark Wiley in spring training to keep his chin in line when throwing to righties. By going inside on them, Willis opens up the outside corner, adding to his effectiveness. He also is changing speeds on his fastball, showing an 87-mph batting practice version on occasion.

Dontrelle is extremely effective against lefties so far this season as well, allowing a meager .184 batting average aganist the few who dare face him.

Derek Lowe is running into bad luck again. His K, BB and HR number are all fine to good. His defense let him down in his last start, and his run support of 3.12 per 9 innnings leaves his record at 2-4 despite a 2.94 ERA.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:27 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2005
Games of the Day

The Texas Rangers make their way north to Chicago this evening to face the White Sox. Chan Ho Park will take on Orlando Hernandez. The Rangers have won Park's last four starts and have scored 38 runs over that stretch. This helped cover up Park's control problems which resulted in 16 walks in his last 23 innings. The White Sox have won El Duque's last five starts, but the average score was 4.2-2.4. Orlando has only allowed 2 home runs all season, and ranks 5th in the AL in HR allowed per 9 innings at 0.42.

There are two games with consequences for the NL East and NL West this evening. The Braves visit the Padres as John Thomson faces Padre rookie Tim Stauffer. Stauffer got the win in his major league debut against Cincinnati, but it wasn't that impressive a start. Adam LaRoche is hitting .359 in May after a .206 BA in April. He's tied for 8th in the NL with 27 RBI; he's hitting .354 with runners on and four of his six homers have come with men on base.

Both teams will be keeping an eye on the score board to see how the Marlins play the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Brian Moehler faces former Fish Brad Penny. Moehler has been very effective as both a starter and reliever this season. In his four starts, he has a 1.99 ERA. Penny's made two good starts and two bad ones. He's coming off a pounding at the hands of the Cardinals in which he gave up 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 15, 2005
Games of the Day

I had a nice time at the Nationals game last night, despite the nearly three hour rain delay before the contest started. I'll have more on that later and all the unexpected people I met. I'm about to drive back to Massachusetts, so blogging will be light again today. So a very abbreviated games of the day:

Toronto at Cleveland
Texas at Minnesota
Baltimore at Chicago White Sox

I'll be back tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2005
Games of the Day

The Detroit Tigers have handled the LAAOA pretty well so far, taking two of three and posting a 2.08 ERA vs. the Angels. Today, Bartolo Colon faces Jeremy Bonderman in the Motor City. Bonderman picked up his first win against the Angels on May 7, his last start. Bonderman has cut his home runs allowed by 1/2 a homer per 9 this season and has become a first class starter. Colon has nearly identical K, BB and HR rates and hasn't walked a batter in his last two starts.

Pedro Martinez will try to match Tom Glavine's great start from last night as St. Louis continues to play without Scott Rolen, who had surgery yesterday. Pedro will face Mark Mulder, who is proving to be worth the trade to the Cardinals. His hits per 9, BB per 9 and HR per 9 are all down from last season.

In Minnesota, the Rangers try to win game 2 of the series against the Twins. They got to Joe Nathan last night, scoring the first earned runs of the season off the closer in extra innings for a 9-6 victory. The Rangers will send the AL ERA leader, Kenny Rogers, to the mound tonight against the Twins. He'll face Carlos Silva. Rogers has only allowed 1 home run in 45 1/3 innings this season, third best in the AL. Keeping the ball in the park, the 18 walks he's allowed haven't hurt him that much. Silva is winning the competition among the Twins starters to see who can walk the fewest batters this season. (I get the feeling the Twins pitchers are fined $10000 every time they walk a batter :-)) He's only walked 1 in 36 innings. Three Twins starters are walking fewer than a batter per 9.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2005
Games of the Day

Two of the best teams of May meet this evening as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers sport a 7-3 record in May and can thank a powerful offense for the surge. The Brewers in these ten games have a .388 OBA and a .496 slugging percentage. While Lyle Overbay continues to lead the charge, Carlos Lee has come out of his slump and has 3 homers and 14 RBI so far this month.

The Pirates are 7-4 in May and they've been scoring runs purely on power. Pittsburgh leads the majors with 21 homers in the month, and they've only allowed 8. Ward and Bay have combined to hit 9 of those.

The Dodgers move from one first place team to another as the Braves visit the city of Angels. Horacio Ramirez faces Jeff Weaver. Ramirez is coming off his first good start of the year in which he pitched seven shutout innings vs. the Astros. Weaver has a high ERA for a 4-2 record, but that's a result of two horrible starts. It looks like you don't know what you'll get from Jeff this season; a shutout or an 8-run blow out seems equally likely.

Finally, the Fish try not to become tacos as they visit the Padres. Beckett starts the day with a 2.14 ERA, 5th in the NL. He'll face Adam Eaton. Eaton has been the beneficiary of some good bullpen work this season. In three of his seven starts, the pen has pitched at least 4 1/3 scoreless innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 12, 2005
Games of the Day

The Dodgers try to earn a split today with the St. Louis Cardinals as they finish up their four-game series. Lowe will face Carpenter. Lowe is 2-3 despite an excellent 2.87 ERA. Lowe had defensive bad luck with the Red Sox in 2004, and he's having offensive bad luck with the Dodgers in 2005. Most of Carpenter's starts have been good; his higher ERA is a result of pitching badly in his two losses.

The Orioles, fresh off defeating the Twins two out of three, visit the White Sox in the other battle of division leaders. Bruce Chen will battle undefeated Jon Garland. Garland has been both good and lucky this season. His first five starts each showed improvement, then he got hammered in start six. But the White Sox offense picked him up, scoring 10 runs to give Jon the victory. Lefties are hitting Chen so far this season. He's allowed a .333 BA to lefties, but a .214 BA to righties. Chen may be one of those reverse lefties like Tommy John and Tom Glavine, whose best pitch runs away from righties but right into the hitting zone for a lefty. I'd love to see Guillen start a lefty lineup against Chen tonight to see what happens.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 11, 2005
Games of the Day

The Twins and the Orioles play the rubber game of their series with a dandy pitching matchup as Johan Santana faces Sir Sidney Ponson. Santana has been brilliant in his last three starts, pitching 25 innings and allowing just four runs. He's lowered his ERA from 4.32 to 2.88. Ponson is on a roll of one good, one poor game. If he can make it two good ones in a row he'll match Daniel Cabrera on the improving rotation.

Dontrelle Willis goes for his 7th win tonight against Roy Oswalt and the Houston Astros. Willis has only given up two hits and a walk so far this season with men in scoring position, good for a .077 BA and a .111 OBA. It a great combination of not many times in the situation and great pitching when he is. Oswalt has pitched well against the 2nd tier of the NL Central, going 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA vs. Cincinnati, Chicago, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. But against division leaders St. Louis and Atlanta he's 0-2 and has allowed 13 earned runs in 11 IP. The Marlins are in this league of teams.

Finally, the Dodgers send Brad Penny vs. the Cardinal and Jeff Suppan. Penny had a rough first start in Colorado, but hasn't allowed a run since returning to lower altitudes. The first place teams have split the first two games of the series. Reggie Sanders had two more homers last night to tie his teammate Albert Pujols for 2nd in the NL with 9. Sanders is slugging well over .600 for the season, and 14 of his 25 hits have gone for extra bases.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 10, 2005
Games of the Day

The Twins and Orioles continue to supply compelling pitching matchups. Veteran Brad Radke faces youngster Eric Bedard. Bedard's improvement has come from reducing the number of walks he's issued, just 7 in 39 2/3 innings. Radke learned that lesson a long time ago and has only walked 1 all season. If you want to see the ball in play, tune to this game.

Tony Armas returns to the National's rotation as they face Shawn Estes and the Diamondbacks. Both teams are off to good starts considering how poorly they played last season. Armas can boost a team who's ERA is 15th in the majors and make them that much more competitive.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 09, 2005
Games of the Day

I just lost the whole post. So, a quick summary.

Twins at Orioles: Carlos Silva is allowing a lot of balls in play, as he's neither striking out nor walking many batters. Convertional wisdom is that you can't survive as a pitcher unless you strikeout at least 4.5 per game. Daniel Cabrera is doing the opposite, striking out and walking lots of batters. That worked in his last start against the Blue Jays.

Astros at Marlins: Pitchers duel between Clemens and Burnett. Clemens has gone exactly seven inning in each of his starts and has only allowed 2 solo homers this season. Burnett, a righty, has been extremely effective vs. left-handed batters.

Detroit at Texas: Three hot hitters to watch in this game are Teixeira, Soriano and Guillen. The move to the #5 spot in the order was good for Alfonso; he has 26 runs+rbi batting fifth (35 AB) and 23 from the lead off slot (98 AB).

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2005
Games of the Day

I have to rush to the airport, but keep your eye on the White Sox vs. the Blue Jays today as Buehrle faces Chacin. Mark has one of the highest ERAs on the White Sox staff at 4.00, showing how well those starters are pitching.

The other Chicago team also offers an excellent matchup as Brett Myers faces Carlos Zambrano on the North Side.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:41 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2005
Games of the Day

Jon Lieber returns to Chicago to face the Cubs and Glendon Rusch. It's amazing that with Lieber and Meyers the Phillies aren't doing better. They're going to need to find offense to support the rest of the staff. Rusch is making his first start of the year. His ERA is very good, but he's walked 10 and and allowed 18 hits in 15 1/3 inning. He's been good (or lucky) with runners in scoring position; opponents are just 4 for 24 against him in that situation.

On the West Coast, the Tigers take on the Angels. It's a good matchup as Jeremy Bonderman faces Bartolo Colon. Bonderman beat a good team for the first time in his last start as he got the W against the Red Sox. Bonderman's great strength this season is that lefties haven't been able to hit him. They have a .265 OBA against the righty. Colon is similar, his lefty opponents are only hitting .197 vs. .225 vs. righties, but lefites are getting on base more, although they're not hitting for power.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 06, 2005
Games of the Day

I'll be at Two Doors Down in Nashville today blogging the Phillies-Cubs matchup. Cory Lidle faces Mark Prior. The Cubs, like so many teams in the NL Central are in danger of being out of the division race by June 1. They've lost five in a row and have been outscore 30-17 in that stretch. Prior pitched well until his last start, where he ran out of gas in the fifth. Could he be going through a dead arm period.

The Phillies are not getting the Altobelli effect I had expected. They have not won two in a row in their last 16 contests. They are being outscored by nearly a run a game this season. That trend will doom them to last place in a tough division.

West meets east in a battle of undefeated pitchers as Jamie Moyer takes his 4-0 record against 3-0 Matt Clement. Moyer has shaken the home run bug that infected him last season and led to 44 round trippers off the lefty. He's only allowed 3 so far in 35 2/3 innings.

Clement is walking a bit too many, but he's only allowed one home run, and the Red Sox have given him 23 runs of support in his 36 innings pitched.

Dontrelle Willis goes for win number six tonight, and on the surface it looks like it should be an easy win as he faces the hapless Colorado Rockies. Joe Kennedy takes the mound for Colorado. Unfortunately, the patriarch has been worse on the road than at home this year. The whole team is just 1-13 on the road. Few of their hitters have seen Dontrelle before, so his unusual motion may work to his advantage this evening.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2005
Games of the Day

The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in Chicago where the White Sox and Jose Contreras host the Royals and Zach Greinke. The two starters have something in common; they've pitched very well but are winless.

This game also gives us a chance to explore how situational hitting effects a team. The White Sox hitters are batting just .220 with runners in scoring position this season, but their opponents are batting just .214. In this low run environment, the White Sox have been able to win the close games. The Royals batters are even worse, with a RISP average of just .216. However, the Royals pitchers aren't getting the job done on their side of the ball. Opponents are hitting .301 vs. the Royal with men in scoring position.

Kris Benson returns to the Mets rotation today and the New Yorkers host the last place Phillies. Benson will face Vicente Padilla, who was bombed by the Mets on April 19th but has improved in each of his starts since. The Mets hit five home runs off the righty that day, and he hasn't allowed one in his eight innings since. He'll have to be sharp, as the Phillies have scored less than four runs a game on the road this season.

Finally, the Devil Rays can knock the Yankees into a tie for last place in the AL East with a win tonight. Wang faces Hendrickson. Hendrickson is one of the better pitchers on the Devil Rays staff. He doesn't walk a lot of batters and he doesn't give up a lot of homers for that ballpark. Wang is still looking for his first major league strikeout.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 04, 2005
Games of the Day

Take a late lunch and go a resturant with TBS to catch the Marlins at the Braves this afternoon. Florida has a 1-game lead over the Atlanta nine, and the pitching matchup is a fine one as A.J. Burnett takes on Tim Hudson. Burnett has been very consistent, giving up two earned runs in each of his five starts so far. His only loss came against the Braves on April 7th when two unearned runs were responsible for the defeat (also against Hudson). Hudson had his first bad outing of the season on the 29th as he went up against his old teammate Mark Mulder. Look for the infielders to have a busy day as most of the balls put in play against these pitcher are on the ground.

The Rangers have Park in the park this afternoon as they go for a sweep of the Athletics. Chan Ho is still walking a lot of batters, but he's greatly reduced their damage by controlling the long ball. Last season, he gave up 22 dingers in 95 2/3 innings; this season just two in a little over 30 IP. The A's offense is in hiberation; they've scored 25 runs in their last 9 games, and over 1/3 of those came in one contest. Park has a very good shot at lowering his ERA today.

Toronto is the team that's not letting the Orioles run away with the AL East. They've taken the first two games of the series and send Roy Halladay to the mound to face Eric Bedard. Since getting whacked by the Tigers on April 18th, Bedard has not allowed a run in his last 15 IP. Eric is putting up excellent strikeout, walk and home run numbers so far this season.

Halladay is making his 7th start of the season today. It appears the Blue Jays are keeping him on exactly five days rest; he's making this start despite Lilly and Bush not making their 6th starts yet. Good for the Blue Jays. They can probably squeeze two or three more starts from Halladay this way, and I'd rather have him go for me than the fourth or fifth man in the rotation.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
May 03, 2005
Games of the Day

Given the ERAs of some of the pitchers starting this evening, it won't be a low scoring night.

The Yankees and Devil Rays get us started with Kevin Brown and Doug Waechter serving up meatballs. Together they've allowed 23 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings. We'll get a look at the new Yankees defense tonight. Womack has played center and right, but tonight will be his first game in left. In a dome. This could be fun.

All the west coast games have a shot at seeing lots of batters cross the plate, but I'll take Washington at Los Angeles for my best bet slugfest. Zach Day faces Jeff Weaver. Day has walked 13 and struck out 7. A selective Dodger lineup should take full advantage of that. Jeff Weaver has just been hittable. Opponents are hitting .315 against the righty, and while a lot of that has to do with one bad start at Coors, he's still sporting a 6.38 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2005
Games of the Day

There's a limited schedule today, but lots of good pitching and game matchups.

The Blue Jays send Gustavo Chacin to the mound to try to stop the Orioles juggernaught. It's a nice matchup of young and improving pitchers as Rodrigo Lopez takes the hill for Baltimore. The Jays and Orioles are closer than the standings indicate; the Orioles have won two more games than the Pythagorean formula would predict, while the Jays are right on at 14-12. Both pitchers will be challenged, as 3 of the top five batting average leaders will appear in this game, as well as two of the top home run hitters in the AL.

Two pitchers helping their new teams this season face off as Jon Lieber and the Phillies visit Shea to face Pedro Martinez and the Mets. The Phillies are 4-1 when Lieber starts, 7-13 otherwise. Pedro has yet to win at Shea, despite impressive numbers in his two starts there (.192 BA allowed, 17 K in 14 IP).

Mike Piazza has been a huge drag on the Mets offense this season. With Reyes spending outs at the top of the order and Piazza wasting them in the middle, it's hard for the Mets to put together rallies. Coupled with the weak production from Mientkiewicz at what should be a power position, and the Mets are not doing a great job of scoring runs (7th in the NL). Decent production by Mike and Jose would have the Mets near the top of the league.

Finally, the Giants visit the desert to take on the Diamondbacks in a battle for 2nd in the NL West. Jason Schmidt faces former Giants starter Russ Ortiz. Schmidt has been sharp with his strikeouts but less so with his walks and home runs. Russ Ortiz is working his usual magic; despite not striking out enough batters and giving up too many home runs, he's sitting there with a 2-1 record and a 3.60 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting just .143 against Russ with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 01, 2005
Games of the Day

Two American League division winners send their aces against each other this afternoon as Bartolo Colon takes on Johan Santana as the Angels face the Twins. Colon has a very interesting home/road split early in the season. He's allowing fewer runs at home (3.05 ERA vs. a 5.06 road ERA) but he's getting less on the road (.171 BA vs. a .273 home BA). The difference is that he's allowed 3 of his four homers in his 10 2/3 road innings, vs. just 1 in his 20 2/3 home innings. All four of the homers hit off Bartolo have come with men on.

Santana has become a strikeout machine. His 45 K in 33 innings is good for a K per 9 rate of 12.3, best in the majors. Given those numbers, it's quite amazing that he's given up 13 runs so far.

The other (or only?) Los Angeles team host Shawn Chacon and the Colorado Rockies today. Derek Lowe takes the mound for the Dodgers. Chacon's return to the starting rotation has been quite successful so far; he's only allowed 1 homer in 17 innings this season after allowing 12 in 63 1/3 in 2004. He's also cut his ERA by more than half. The strikeouts that have eluded Lowe over the previous three seasons are coming back. Through 2001, mostly as a reliever, he average 6.9 K per 9. As a starter from 2002-2004, that fell to 5.1 K per 9. This year so far he's splitting the difference, collecting 6.1 K per 9.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2005
Games of the Day

Does it get any better than Bush vs. Wang? Look for some Chien music from the Taiwanese pitcher today as he makes his major league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays. Chien has excellent strikeout and home run numbers in his minor league career. He needs the Yankees offense to straighten up, however, or he may suffer the same fate as Johnson at the hands of the Blue Jays.

David Bush has not lived up to his minor league numbers so far. He's already given up five home runs in 22 innings pitched this season; in his minor league career he allowed 19 in about 300 IP.

Jamie Moyer looks to go 5-0 in April as the Mariners face the Athletics and Joe Blanton in Oakland. Through 2004, Moyer averaged 5.5 K per 9. He's upped that to 6.5 per 9 this season. Blanton is losing despite a 1.75 ERA. The A's are scoring 1 run a start for Joe this season.

And if you're looking for some offense, the Cubs at the Astros offers two pitchers with ERAs over 5.00. Kerry Wood stand at 5.79 although he's coming off five decent innings vs. the Pirates. The Astros are another good choice for lowering his ERA. Brandon Backe's ERA is at 6.17 for the opposite reason; three decent starts, then the Cardinals pounded him last time out.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 29, 2005
Games of the Day

It's going to be a good night to watch baseball in Atlanta. First, Cox and La Russa become the first 2000 win managers to face each other since 1950. Second, old friends and teammates Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson battle against each other for the first time.

Mulder is coming off an impressive 10 inning shutout of the Houston Astros. He only threw 101 pitches in that outing, and is averaging 13.2 pitches per inning this season. Mulder has greatly cut down on his home runs allowed so far this year, giving up just 1 in 29 innings. Last year, he allowed 1 every 9 innings. Hudson is second in the NL in ERA at 0.96. He has not allowed more than 1 run in any of his four starts for the Braves.

Former Cy Young award winners face off in two games tonight. Roger Clemens host Greg Maddux in a battle of the two best pitchers of the 1990's. Clemens is still pitching that way, but Maddux has lost something. He used to be very good at keeping the ball in the park but has given up 39 homers in 236 2/3 innings dating back to the start of 2004.

Roy Halladay visits New York to face the Big Unit, Randy Johnson in the other battle of CYs. It should be an interesting weekend in the Big Apple, as I believe it's the first time a Wang has followed a Johnson in any rotation. That's a duo Bobby Cox should be managing. Rumors that the Yankees are thinking of hiring Dick Pole as a pitching coach are totally unfounded.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)