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National Situation Update: Thursday, February 1, 2001

Unpredictable But Stormy Pattern Foreseen in Medium Range Forecast
In their weekly threat assessment for the next 10 days, forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) foresee an uncertain but rapidly changing pattern of storminess for much of the eastern third of the county. A predicted strong jet stream flow from west to east over the U.S. is expected to produce a dynamic weather regime, in which there is minimal threat of extreme temperatures or extended precipitation in any one particular area. The forecasters warn, though that localized hazards related to individual storms could develop with little advance warning during the period.

Image of the storm patterns for the United States

The evolution of the pattern suggests the likelihood of a significant storm in the middle of the country during the second weekend of the outlook period, February 9-10, with snow and mixed precipitation to the north and strong thunderstorms to the south. Affected areas from this expected system stretch from Oklahoma and Arkansas in the south to the Western Great Lakes in the north.

Earlier in the period, roughly February 5-8, models indicate a mostly snow or rain changing to snow coastal storm from the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians to southeastern New England. Major cities probably will not see large impacts from this storm south of Pennsylvania.

Central Florida has seen some relief from long-term drought conditions over the past two days, but the CPC forecasters do not see significant precipitation for the region in the next 10 days. (CPC)

Wyoming Monitors Flooding Potential
An ice jam on the Big Horn River in Washakie County, WY, caused the river to rise three feet beginning on January 30, creating a potential flooding threat to the community of Worland and surrounding areas.

Higher temperatures have lessened the threat over the past 24 hours, turning much of the river ice into slush. Local officials are keeping a close watch however, as the slush may also cause the river to rise again. No precipitation is expected until the weekend. There are no reports of damage or injuries.

FEMA Region VIII officials are monitoring the situation. There has been no request for Federal assistance at this time. (Region VIII)

California Energy Shortage Update
The California Independent System Operator (ISO) continues a Stage Three electrical emergency due to short supply of electricity on the grid serving the state. Peak demand today is projected to be 30,864 megawatts, while yesterday's was 28,722 megawatts.

There were no reports of rolling blackouts yesterday in the state and there are no reported plans for such outages today. The ISO maintains a website at with the latest demand information.

State and local emergency management organizations continue to monitor the situation and are prepared to provide local response should that become necessary. FEMA Region IX is maintaining regular contact with the state. No request for FEMA assistance has been received from the state at this time. (Region IX, California ISO)

Kansas Natural Gas Explosion Update
Kansas State Emergency Management Officials and the Kansas Gas Services continue to deal with the aftermath of a natural gas explosion that occurred in Hutchinson on January 17. The incident has now claimed two lives.

Several residents of an evacuated mobile home park were allowed back in the park to collect some of their belongings. The 77-unit park remains evacuated.

Work crews continue to take steps to contain a flame of burning natural gas in downtown. The intent is to keep the flame burning until all the natural gas is gone. The Governor announced he is sending more resources from the Kansas Geological Survey to Hutchinson to assist in the containment efforts.

FEMA Region VII is monitoring the situation and is in contact with State officials. No request for Federal assistance has been made at this time. (Region VII)

FEMA Briefs

FEMA-3160-EM, Michigan Update
Over 100 Public Assistance Applicant Briefings have been held for the emergency declaration, FEMA-3160-EM, Michigan. Public Assistance Satellite Offices have been established in Ingham, Oakland, Genesse, Kalamazoo and Kent counties. (Lansing DFO)

Last Updated: Friday, 22-Oct-2004 00:00:00 EDT
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