Rest of Today
Increasing cloudiness late. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
Becoming mostly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday Night and Monday
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Cooler. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Tuesday through Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the upper 40s.
Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs around 70. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Sun and Moon
Sunrise:
06:15 AM (CST)
Moon Rise:
08:56 PM (CST)
Sunset:
06:17 PM (CST)
Moon Set:
07:30 AM (CST)
Moon Phase
Today
Mar. 22
Mar. 29
Apr. 05
Apr. 13
NWS Forecaster Discussion
351
fxus64 klch 171611
afdlch
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1011 am CST Friday Mar 17 2006
Synopsis...a weak cold front over the coastal waters will stall
later today and begin retreating as a warm front. This will bring
increasing cloudiness to southeast Texas as well as southwest and
south central Louisiana and a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon for lower southeast Texas.
&&
Update...will remove mention of precipitation as scheduled for all
except the bpt area. Will add mention of slt chance thunderstorms for the
bpt area late this afternoon.
&&
Marine...added caution to coastal water for increasing east winds
before midnight from developing low pressure in the lower Rio
Grande Valley along the old frontal boundary.
&&
Aviation...VFR. Increasing clouds late this afternoon into this
evening for bpt...lch...lft as front retreats. Insufficient probability of precipitation
to mention thunderstorms in bpt and lch tafs late this afternoon.
&&
Previous discussion... (issued 530 am CST Friday Mar 17 2006)
Discussion...evening upper air analysis showed broad upper trough
over the eastern Continental U.S....with dirty upper ridge building east across
the central Continental U.S.. farther upstream...significant upper trough
digging into eastern Pacific/western Continental U.S..
At the surface...metar observation and klch 88d show cold front just north of a
kbtr to korg line...while leading edge of drier air has cleared a
kjas to kaex line.
Complex forecast continues this morning...with fog...dense at
spots...developing across the area in advance of drier air. This
possibility was alluded to yesterday morning...and the NAM was
right on target with the slower speed of the front and subsequent
fog development while the GFS missed the boat entirely. As
such...have leaned more heavily on the NAM in the short term.
Regarding the fog...given the vast majority of observation are greater
than 1/4 sm...will forego an npw and let nowcasts and zone forecast product mention
suffice.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed overnight along
the surface boundary...so will include a small pop through midday
for areas roughly I-10 and south to cover this.
Front will continue south into the northern Gomex today...and then
stall before retreating back north on Saturday. Best rainfall
chances will generally lie along/north of this boundary Saturday
and Sunday...though weak inhibition depicted by GFS/NAM on Sunday
may allow for a more active warm sector. Bottom line...most
generous quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are expected to occur north of the forecast
area...though an mesoscale convective system or rain cooled air/convective outflow may
help to hold/nudge the boundary a little farther south and thus
the more substantial rainfall.
In the extended period...the 17/000z GFS has continued to become
even more progressive with the upper trough expected to move through
the central/Southern Plains on Monday. Latest runs of the dgex and
European model (ecmwf) agree more with the 16/1800z GFS run...and the incoming 17/0600z
GFS has actually slowed back down a bit closer to the 18z run.
Thus...went with a slower progression of the system...and inserted
a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday night in the event the slower
European model (ecmwf)/dgex solution pans out. Still looks like a potential severe
weather event...and will continue to mention in severe weather potential statement.
Otherwise...Tuesday and Wednesday both look dry...with rain
chances returning to the forecast on Thursday.
As for temperatures in the extended...continued to lean on
ensemble guidance given the consistency problems.
Aviation...MVFR kaex will improve to VFR by middle morning. LIFR at
the coastal terminals...kbpt-klch-klft...will improve to IFR by
middle morning...and MVFR by early afternoon as the fog disperses and
low cloud deck lifts.
&&
Updated point temps/pops...
klch 75 55 69 62 / 10 20 40 40
kbpt 75 58 70 63 / 20 20 40 40
kaex 71 49 60 55 / 0 20 60 60
klft 75 53 68 60 / 0 10 40 40
&&
Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
13/11
... A warmer and drier than normal Spring expected...
The National Weather Service has issued its Spring outlook for April through June. These type of outlooks are stated on the chance that the average rainfall or temperature for this Spring will be either above or below the 30 year normal. A forecast of equal chances is just that... the probability that the average will be above... below... or near normal is roughly the same.
With that said... the forecast is showing a higher probability that southeast Texas and Louisiana will be drier and warmer than the 30 year normal. Even higher probabilities of warmer and drier conditions are forecast over the southwest and Midwest sections of the United States.
The lastest drought monitor released earlier today indicates moderate drought across coastal southeast Texas... and adnormally dry conditions extending across inland southeast Texas and along the coastal parishes of Louisiana... or basically I-10 to the coast.
With a higher probability of a warmer and drier Spring... it is expected that the drought will only worsen and spread east across the area. The following table shows area rainfall since the beginning of the year..normal precipitation to date... and departure from normal.
Observed rainfall normal rainfall percent station since January 1st since January 1st of normal ----------------------------------------------------------------- Alexandria 12.09 13.93 87% Beaumont 3.80 10.94 35% Lake Charles 4.66 10.62 44% LaFayette 8.11 12.73 64% New Iberia 4.07 10.82 38% -----------------------------------------------------------------
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