NHC receives frequent inquiries on the accuracy and skill of its forecasts and of
the computer models available to it. To help answer these questions, these verification
web pages were established in March 2005. The development of this resource will be
completed in stages; ultimately all available records dating back to the earliest NHC
forecasts in 1954 will be included. A digital database of NHC official track forecast
errors has been constructed for the period 1970 to the present, and it is this period that is
presented initially here. A digital database of intensity errors has been constructed dating
back to 1990. These pages will be updated as extensions to the database are completed.
Questions on NHC forecast verifications may be directed to
James.Franklin@noaa.gov.
Note: A number of the documents included here are in PDF format. You may
need to install the free
Acrobat®
Reader to view and print these documents.