The Migration Of Bird Flu
The H5N1 bird flu virus
The H5N1 strain of bird flu has spread across Europe, Africa and parts of Asia and killed nearly 100 people worldwide and infected about 180 since it re-emerged in 2003. Scientists fear it could evolve into a mutating virus, and gain the ability to jump easily from human to human, at which point it could trigger a pandemic, resulting in millions of deaths world-wide.
All influenza viruses mutate easily, and H5N1 appears to be no exception. We are unprepared, to say the least. Food health and safety (quarantine) barriers will loom larger than ever in world trade this year thanks to fears about the spread of this and other epizootic diseases.
The health care system is close to breaking point and we have no vaccine for the pandemic, which will bring us to that fateful breaking point. Besides, how are you going to immunize 185 million people, you can't do it! And the reason for having only two producers is that the regulatory burden has squeezed out most other producers
Spread of epizootic disease such as bird flu represents an enormous threat to markets because few governments manage them in a rational way based on a cost-benefit assessment of risk mitigation strategies. If this happens, which is likely by late 2006, we really are royally.....and even Iran and their crazy Thug-In-Chief President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, nuclear threat will fade into insignificance. Well perhaps not quite....
The worries about bird flu are past the realm of "could be a threat" and have entered the phase of the ticking time bomb. Whilst we cannot see the time marker, nor do we know when it will go off in the USA, I am betting on Fall 2006, but it could come much sooner.
"The only reason nobody is concerned the Emperor has no clothes is that he hasn't shown up yet" Harvey V.Fineberg, President of the National Academy of Sciences' Institute of Medicine said recently of the world's efforts to prepare for pandemic flu. "When he appears, people will see he is naked".
The President @ a Press Conference in October last year:
I am concerned about avian flu. I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world. I am -- I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it. The policy decisions for a President in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult.
One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country, and how do you then enforce a quarantine? When -- it's one thing to shut down airplanes; it's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. And so that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have. I noticed the other day, evidently, some governors didn't like it. I understand that. I was the commander-in-chief of the National Guard, and proudly so, and, frankly, I didn't want the President telling me how to be the commander-in-chief of the Texas Guard. But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the President to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe, or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak.
Secondly -- wait a minute, this is an important subject. Secondly, during my meetings at the United Nations, not only did I speak about it publicly, I spoke about it privately to as many leaders as I could find, about the need for there to be awareness, one, of the issue; and, two, reporting, rapid reporting to WHO, so that we can deal with a potential pandemic. The reporting needs to be not only on the birds that have fallen ill, but also on tracing the capacity of the virus to go from bird to person, to person. That's when it gets dangerous, when it goes bird-person-person. And we need to know on a real-time basis as quickly as possible, the facts, so that the scientific community, the world scientific community can analyze the facts and begin to deal with it. Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins.
As you know, there's been a lot of reporting of different flocks that have fallen ill with the H5N1 virus. And we've also got some cases of the virus being transmitted to person, and we're watching very carefully. Thirdly, the development of a vaccine -- I've spent time with Tony Fauci on the subject. Obviously, it would be helpful if we had a breakthrough in the capacity to develop a vaccine that would enable us to feel comfortable here at home that not only would first responders be able to be vaccinated, but as many Americans as possible, and people around the world. But, unfortunately, there is a -- we're just not that far down the manufacturing process. And there's a spray, as you know, that can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease, which is in relatively limited supply.
So one of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic. In other words, can we surge enough production to be able to help deal with the issue?
And the issue is of course so much more important acute today than in 1918 because of population dynamics. Whilst the President suggests reading Barry’s book, in 1918, the majority population lived on farms; now 80% of the population live in urban areas. Viruses of course love that, as they spread from person to person. Air-travel is also a huge contributing factor for causing earlier epidemics and more and more all year round incidents due to frequent travel crisscrossing the globe.
We also need to boost vaccine production. Unfortunately, I am told it's not so easy as to just ‘make more.’ This stuff has to be grown in egg whites for approximately 18 months for it to be a viable vaccine. Not to mention running into the problem we had in 2004, where the FDA only allowed vaccine produced by 2 different companies. It's not like “Generic Biotech INC.” can just start making flu vaccine. This is an instance where regulation shoots us in the foot.
As far as military quarantine, I think that with bio-terrorism, things like Ebola, and H5N1 flu, we seriously need to have quarantine plans in place that utilize absolutely all of our assets. But of course none of this will be in place until it’s too late to organize it in a civilized manner.
CDC is a Government site, where you can get a lot of information on the avian flu, also try Avian Flu What We We Need To Know, which is a daily blog and very informative giving a lot of links to information as well as updates, and lastly The Poultry Site, which also has a lot of the latest on the subject.
The Economist View and (no surprise here) ‘Avian Flu What We Need To Know’ authored by Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics at George Mason University. Hugh Hewitt has been dutifully following all the information tracks and so has Glenn Reynolds @ Instapundit who gives constant updates. Another recommended read is the NYT's Has America finally woken up? There would of course be a Flu Wiki Blog!
Well that's five blogs out of, let's see 50 000 000. What do you think Tyler, impressive ratio? Give me another statistic please I am drowning here.
What is the Blogosphere waiting for? The update on the President's recommended read "Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918"? Oh yeah......
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