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MMS Friends

Bringing the unwashed masses the view from Hoboken. And a washcloth.

Saturday, June 18, 2005

After the election: Silence

Most election news that the public gets is driven by the campaigns' marketing/communications engines. The papers mainly just go along for the ride, stepping away from the muddiest controversies and letting the campaigns themselves define the issues as best they can (with deliberate bias, of course). When the campaign stops, the news hits a brick wall.

That's OK because campaigns get intense (and even go into overtime), and people want to get on with their lives. But that's also NOT OK because people have personal investments in an election. They've read (some of) the campaign materials, they've talked with some neighbors, they've argued with others. Some people do more, putting up window signs or even knocking on doors. When the campaign's over, there are still people who want to know what really happened, and why, and what will happen next. They get a quick blast of that - the losing camp says the other side cheated, the winners say let's unite and move forward. Not much of an assessment of the effort (and for that matter, hardly unbiased), nor much of a road map to the next campaign.

Anyway, we're going to break down some of the things that resulted in Roberts' (frankly) crushing his opposition. And we'll look at what it means going forward. It's probably not at all what you're thinking, not if you're getting your info from the papers or the leaders of the opposing sides.

We want to unwind this thing at a reasonable pace, and we're going to look at some other issues we've wanted to post about as well. If you want to get the election wrapup, it's coming, in a summer-appropriate bits and pieces pace. We appreciate our readers - really - and it hasn't escaped us that many of you keep coming back regularly for, um, whatever it is we're doing around here.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Tris McCall packs the courtroom

Full house for Tris last night. Sluggo posted an informal review and I made snarky comments. All present enjoyed the show. Mike C of Hoboken Rock City has a far more substantial description (it's actually a show preview, not a review). Mike dropped us a note to say the show was 'totally rad'.

The Brennan Courthouse has these sort of events, featuring folk, acoustic, and small blues and jazz groups, monthly. Performers interested in a slot in the series should send demo CDs or tapes to the The Hudson County Office of Cultural & Heritage Affairs/Tourism Development at the Court House. More information here.

{UPDATE: Danny (see Trackback) says he had trouble hearing. We did too, tell truth, but the acoustics were touted as outstanding so we thought it was just us. Like Danny, we were at the fringes of the room and too polite or chicken to push through. Sluggo says things were better up close. Acoustics are of course very important for folk-type music such as Tris is inclined towards. Perhaps this is a sneaky way of forcing us to buy his CD...}

{UPDATE 2: Tris lists some reactions and reviews to his show.}

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Friday, June 17, 2005

Spreading memes?

Darth-Vader-on-phone
The New York Times today published a piece (Cosmic Struggles of Cultural Proportions) comparing Batman Begins to Revenge of the Sith. Terrific idea, wonder where it might have come from?

An ad for Sith in the same paper sported the headline, 'Who's Your Daddy?' Another clever and original approach.

We all get our ideas from everywhere. We borrow, enhance, adapt, and we all stand on the shoulders of cultural giants. It's an odd sensation to send a fairly original idea out into the world and see it - or something that looks like it - boomerang back at you. Was that piece in the Times in any way inspired by the Men in Black (capes) post on this site? It's almost impossible to know. We do get a lot of big media hits, so we know the work is seen in those circles, but who can tell? Perhaps great minds (and simpletons) really do think alike, and that is the end of it. Too bad you can't watermark an idea the way you can a Photoshop image. Then you could deconstruct memes and reveal your contribution to them beyond doubt.

When a blogger's idea crosses over to mass media, the connection between creator and created is severed. When a blogger picks up a thread from another blogger, using links and Trackback, the connection is reaffirmed and enhanced. Ironic how this worked itself out, since the 'net was supposed to be an environment much less friendly to intellectual property rights than traditional media.

{SIDEBAR: Even the Dark Lord struggles to pitch his ideas sometimes.}

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No respect

Hoboken Penguin 8-ball bunny
Jersey's image in film and on TV consists of Bugs Bunny encountering a penguin from Hoboken ("Hoboken? I'm dyin', I'm dyin'!"), Marlon Brando calling Hoboken home (as a result of his having hit rock bottom - in other words, Palookaville*), The Sopranos (Bada Bing) and this.

No wonder Jersey's cities are sprucing up their PR, and the state is searching for a new slogan.

*{UPDATE: That Palookaville quote comes up at Number 3 in the American Film Institute's top 100 all-time movie quotes. Another famous quote uttered by Brando was Number 2.}

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Holy cheesecake!

Batgirl
"What does your date look like, Ray?"
"She's very sparkly. She looks like a holiday."

(From John's Blog, the pride of Jersey. He's an excellent poster, of course. An excellent poster.)

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Revenge of the co-worker

From the New Jersey Craigslist. And John's Blog has a bunch more.

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Danny Klein takes no prisoners

While we ponder the long-range ramifications of Hoboken's recent election, Danny Klein nails the here-and-now. Way to seize the day, Danny.

Side note: Check out Danny's link to the Jersey Journal's 'Political Insider', which said 'only a Peter Weiss was good enough to call a race like this one'. Their dirty secret, though, is that the Journal's been on THIS site every single day for weeks (hey, we read our site logs), and they know full well we called it. And called it. And called it. The Journal's self-affirming claim that 'nobody could call the race' just looked better in print than admitting they didn't know what was going to happen, but others did.

Guess they couldn't help themselves.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Thursday, June 16, 2005

Local events reminder: Tris McCall, Kayaking & more

If you are passionate about politics and music (as some are) you must not miss Tris McCall on Friday.

Hoboken Kayaking and Father's Day. Perfect together.

via New York's Sixth (who installed their commenting and trackback features just 'cause we asked, so play nice):

Mile Square Theatre Company of Hoboken will be putting on their 3rd annual "7th Inning Stretch: 7 Ten-minute plays about baseball" on Saturday, June 18 at 8pm. Tickets: $25 / $15 Students, Seniors "7th Inning Stretch presents premieres of baseball plays from some of America's best playwrights."

The documentary "Fatal Mistakes" will be shown Saturday at 8pm at the Symposia Bookstore. The documentary was filmed by two students and is presented by the Hoboken Digital Film Society. Tickets are $5.

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Mr. Popularity

Flying monkey at typewriter
This is by far the most Googled image on our entire site. (No, we don't know why.) It is, of course, a picture of Yours Truly at work.

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Technical update

We want to welcome all the folks who've been coming here for election news, particularly in the wake of the election. Because of all the recent traffic, we're making some feature improvements. Right now we're trying to install Haloscan trackback features, so threads of thought and commentary are easier to follow across different blogs. Unfortunately, this is a VERY do-it-yourself sort of thing, and we're spending more time than we'd like trying to make it function correctly.

All this is by way of explaining why we haven't yet put up the post-mortem to the election. It's not that we have nothing to say - regular readers know better than that. We're just a bit, um, involved at the moment.

{UPDATE: It ain't pretty, but Trackback IS now working.}

{UPDATE 2: We're going to wait until Saturday to do our campaign postmortem. This way we'll be able to comment on whatever the Reporter has to say, in addition to our own thoughts.}

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Classic humor

Paul Lynde
Decompress from politics with some classic Hollywood Squares moments. Because Paul Lynde suggested much more than he actually said, the network censors and 'decency' pressure groups couldn't lay a glove on his blue patter.

Peter Marshall: Is Billy Graham considered a good dresser?
Paul Lynde: No, but he's a terrific end table.

Peter Marshall: It is the most abused and neglected part of your body-- what is it?
Paul Lynde: Mine may be abused but it certainly isn't neglected!

Peter Marshall: Elizabeth Taylor calls it 'the Big One' , What is it?
Paul Lynde: They both look the same to me!

Peter Marshall: Paul, can you get an elephant drunk?
Paul Lynde: Yes, but he still won't go up to your apartment.

Peter Marshall: In "Alice in Wonderland", who kept crying "I'm late, I'm late?"
Paul Lynde: Alice, and her mother is sick about it.

Peter Marshall: In the Middle Ages, Paul, people in convents were not allowed to eat beans because they believed something about them we now know isn't true. What?
Paul Lynde: Well, I know they took a vow of silence...

Peter Marshall: Paul, why do Hell's Angels wear leather?
Paul Lynde: Because chiffon wrinkles too easily.

Peter Marshall: True or false...research indicates that Columbus liked to wear bloomers and long stockings.
Paul Lynde: It's not easy to sign a crew up for six months...

Peter Marshall: It is considered in bad taste to discuss two subjects at nudist camps. One is politics. What is the other?
Paul Lynde: Tape measures.

Peter Marshall: Paul, in the early days of Hollywood, who was usually found atop Tony, the Wonder Horse?
Paul Lynde: My Friend Flicka.

Tons and tons of this stuff here. With appreciation to John's Blog.

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Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Dazzling deductive reasoning

Our regular readers (especially those who read our political pieces) know that we're big believers in deconstructive reasoning, in which arguments are broken down and tested. We also believe that political factors enter into all speheres of human endeavor, not just the obvious ones. And we love Apple's products.

Here is a brilliant exposition combining all three elements: Why Apple switched to Intel chips.

{UPDATE: Crigley clarifies and expands on this subject.}

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Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Election results

For the few who don't know, Roberts swept. We'll put up a post-mortem of the election after the full results are in and we have had a chance to digest comments from both sides (sometime on Saturday). Basically, it looks like Roberts swept the election, as we had expected. Partial online results are here, but the numbers froze somewhere short of the final tally (as the Hudson County site typically does for some reason). A story is posted on NJ.com.

This is a time for smart politicians who care about Hoboken to be gracious, congratulate the other side, and offer to work to heal the divisions caused by the campaign. So far we have seen little of that. As we anticipated on this site, there were bitter post-result remarks and accusations from Soares' camp re the other side's dirty tricks and none about their own shortcomings. (If that's all we see from Lenz and Soares, then nothing will be learned from this defeat.)

Marsh said "We'll be back". Certainly there is a constituency that is not going away. Whether they will rally behind leadership that managed to work its way completely out of power by achieving a stunning zero for ten in the last two elections, or find other paths that work better, is a whole 'nother question.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Carnival of the Vanities # 143

Tillie-retouched
Welcome to the Jersey Style Carnival of the Vanities (143), hosted by our revamped Tillie with a hand (literally) from his second-cousin-twice-removed Eustace Tilley. (We have t-shirts of this famous Jersey icon here. This raises money for the Hoboken Historical Museum.)

Announcements:

Enlighten-Carnival-button-1
Enlighten-Carnival-button-2
Each Sunday, EnlightenNJ posts The Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers. These weekly blog digests are marked by one of these two 'Tilly' graphics. If you write about, or want to read about, New Jersey, check them out.

If you're part of this Carnival, link to it from your site. More links = more traffic for all participants.

If you'd care to host a future Carnival, you can find pertinent information here.

Anything you want to know about Mr. Snitch, you can find here.

On to the Carnival...

Follow-the-money
Famous Hoboken resident now running for Governor advises: Follow the MONEY, baby!

Wachovia Bank apologizes for involvement with slavery in its corporate past. The Charlotte Capitalist believes that slavery never ended, it's just taken new forms. Like taxes.

Calculating the long-term ownership costs of having a pet. (At least you don't have to send it to college. Do you?) Via Free Money Finance. (Of course, those figures fly right out the window if you develop a pet allergy, says Dr. Tony.)

Nick says: The public should invest in videocameras for our elected leaders, so they can telecommute. (But are we ready for "I recognize my colleague from Pennsylvania in the striped bathrobe"? Just kidding Nick. After all, it worked for Yoda...)

Businesses should share capital and personnel resources says Blog Business World. (They don't tell us who gets the corner office, though.)

Why Gillette won't be getting any more of Brian J. Noggle's money.

Lessons in management demotivation, and a fishy allusion to capitalism, from El Capitan of Baboon Pirates.

From Rip & Read Blogger Pocast, a Podcast fisking the New York Times' recent series on our nation's wealth disparities. Some hearty agreement on this subject, from Coyote Blog.

Monmouth-11
Sopranos wannabe Joe DeLisa - of Jersey's Monmouth 11 - asks, 'Hey, what's the DEAL here?'

Madeline Kane asks (in verse, yet) what those Supreme Court justices are smokin'.

If eating meat is murder, and you eat it anyway, what's up with THAT? -asks Carnal Reason.

Instead of finding posts on a discussion board's stated topic, there's an argument on how to discuss, what posts should be allowed, the attributes of a particular poster, complaints about others' posts and complaints about the discussion. A strictly on-topic guide to Meta-discussion, by Sarah Fitz-Claridge.

These are Strange Days for Koranteng's Toli, filled with Strange books, Strange fruit, a Strange playlist and other Strange events. (We noticed that, a couple of days after Koranteng wrote the post, things hadn't gotten any less strange.)

An extremist group makes a video showing the desecration of an American flag. Then they threaten holy retribution on anyone showing the video. Atlas shrugs.

Aussie scientists study the relation of sperm production and the type of porn viewed (That should be enough information for about a 100% click-through.) (Watcher of Weasels). Insert your own snarky connecting remark here: Wonder Years' Winnie Cooper gets all Penthouse on us (Interested Participant).

A German chops up his parole officer as a gift to himself, and his countrymen applaud his restraint. (Listed as Humor, and we were afraid to argue.) Nose on your face.

Movies of the last decade or so depict humanity being wiped out by climactic shifts, fear gas, interplanetary invaders, asteroids, robots, plague, computer glitches, nuclear wars, molten core eruptions, solar flares, man-made viruses, and the moon splitting in half. No one's really concerned, except the movie industry - they're running low on doomsday plots. Not to worry, Bill Adams has it covered.

Disgruntled, lazy students. Disgruntled, enabler parents. Disgruntled, frustrated teachers. It all adds up to one very disgruntled post at Multiple Mentality.

Got-yourself-a-GUN
It wasn't enough for Vincent "Big Pussy" Pastore to PLAY a Jersey mobster on TV...

Three women, at home on the (shooting) range. TFS Magnum

Greg explains how an unusual use of Blogger juggles 80 blogs to create puzzles, leaving clues like this: In these clues, a single word is disguised / All official saints must be canonized / A finalist fiasco is a troubling gaffe / And a mob boss has a siciliano staff.

We-got-Politics
Indicted former Hoboken Mayor Anthony Russo

Toilet issues and politics. Perfect together. (Classical Values)

The zombie of Hitler's corpse is eating people's brains. Orac explains why this is a big problem in politics.

(Picking up the same thought thread, believe it or not:) Point Five explains why Charles Rangel's stubbed toe is as bad as 6 million Jews killed.

Rightwing Nuthouse fisks those who live to draw comparisons between Bush and Hitler. (You know, if Hitler hadn't existed, we'd have to invent him. What else would we make movies and talk about?)

Will Franklin calls the New York Times on its oily distortions.

Geoffrey at The Monjo Blog says that what America needs is a solid rap in the teeth.

So you think a strong federal government is the answer to our political problems? Think again, says The Electric Commentary.

Are Howard Dean and the Democrats moving toward a theocracy? The Unalienable Right is concerned.

Jersey Guy Mike Leung hates Bush. But he's still no damned Democrat.

Wolfie says Michael Howard must stand up to the EuroBullies. From Liberty Cadre.

Eric Berlin outs Amnesty International's 'gulag' statement, and declares that now, 'words officially have no meaning'. (Gee between AI, the UN scandal, and the mess with the Pew, who do you trust to save the world these days?)

Think politics and poetry are oil and water? Dave Schuler's Glittering Eye cites a John Godfrey Saxe poem from the 1800's that's relevant to Iraq today. The Palmetto Pundit also waxes poetic (and if you've ever waxed a poetic...), offering us advice on a road to NOT travel.

Culture

Pratie Place lists the worst songs of the 70's. (This list, to us, looks like all the songs of the 70's.)

The lost PowerPoint slides. Now it can be told: the staff meetings and corporate presentations that changed history. Fire to Pharaoh, it's all here. (This is a piece just begging to be fleshed out and turned into a book. Or at least a PowerPoint presentation.) Humor from The Skwib

Living through the aftermath of a hurricane, by Boudicca's Voice.

Is happiness a Zero-sum game? And if so, are we making it that way? From Chocolate and Gold Coins.

A personal remembrance of Watergate, by Joe Gandelman.

Books that have had an impact on me, from Ashish's Niti.

Corporate travel as I've known it, with your tour guide Elisson.

Technogypsy looks back on Scout Camp.

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

THE CARNIVAL NEXT TRAVELS TO:
June 22nd - This Blog Is Full Of Crap
June 29th - SophistPundit

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Monday, June 13, 2005

It's not just Where you stand, but How.

Where-I-stand
You may find this a trivial pursuit, at first. Please indulge us, and you might change your opinion.

Here are images of two local politicians from recent months: Carol Marsh (the orange headline is from her literature) and State Senator Bernard Kenny. Both are standing, but the messages they send are worlds apart.

Marsh's stance is one used often by Soares/Marsh campaigns. Leaning to the side, arms folded. The body language says: Superior. Closed-off. Kenny is standing flat-footed, hands folded neatly. Body language: Open. Earnest.

Just so we're clear: We're not discussing insights into actual character, here, so let's take that off the table. This excercise concerns body language as an aspect of communication.

Most of our readers may think this is an unimportant matter. Who cares how a politician stands? That's not why people vote! But then, most of our readers have never handled a successful political campaign.

An illustration may help explain why this matters. Both these people are in the business of asking for votes. Most of our readers have never done this. Let's compare asking for a vote with asking for a loan, something many of you may have done at one time or another. (This is an apt comparison - both experiences involve asking for trust.) Let's say the two people shown here are standing before a loan officer - you. But you can only give a loan to one of them, and this quick impression of them, this image, is all you have to go by. All things being equal, which one do you choose?

A politician in a campaign is trying, in effect, to reach thousands of 'loan officers', asking for faith and trust. These loan officers do not want to issue their loans to someone who acts as if they were their superior - they may regret having made the loan. They want to loan to someone who will be accessible and open to them, someone who won't forget where their loan came from.

This is the nature of political messaging, as seen from the inside-out. Political messages are ephemeral and fleeting, and nothing should be left to chance or taken for granted. Every mistake is a lost opportunity, gone forever. Every message that contradicts another message is a waste of money, time, and other resources. In a campaign where details are left to chance, the wrong word, the wrong garment, the wrong tone, or the wrong timing can literally destroy a candidate's chances. (Or have you so soon forgotten The Dean Scream?) In a good campaign, each message is consistent, to reinforce and build upon the previous one. No elements should fight the message, no matter how subtly.

Still don't believe it matters? Try to recall a (legitimate) US Presidential candidate you've seen, who ran ads with images displaying the body attitude shown at left. Can't think of one? Now think of how many times you've seen successful politicians with body language similar to what you're seeing at right. You've seen lots of those, haven't you?

The messaging conveyed by Marsh's stance may not have been accidental. It may be that her campaign's PR handlers actually thought the pose conveyed a positive message (and of course, the message is positive - for those already supporting Marsh). Such thinking reveals an uncertain grasp of politics in general, and of this group of candidates in particular. One long-standing negative in polls of Soares, Lenz, and Marsh has been an impression of 'elitism'. This is no secret, and their campaign messages should be working in concert to lessen the problem. It's also possible the message was just not perceived for what it was. That's no excuse, either - it's the PR person's job to spot such problems.

When we see any politician doing something so simple, so incorrectly, for so long, we can be sure there are other matters being handled improperly as well. These types of modestly wayward communications, multiplied by the dozens of impressions each voter receives, lead to lost campaigns. And lost opportunities for a candidate to make whatever contributions they might otherwise have made in public life.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Sunday, June 12, 2005

Meme du jour

Batman Begins
Meme du jour, from an insightful early review of Batman Begins, by Scott Foundas of LA Weekly:
It may be that in making Batman Begins, Nolan has created history’s first neo-realist superhero movie.

Great concept, and we agree. This novel film's success (it's the summer entry most likely to eclipse the final Star Wars installment at the box office) will kick off the next phase of 'Superhero Cinema'. Future comic book adaptators will, for the first time, have the option of treating their subjects as 'serious' projects. It will no longer be de rigeur for superhero auteurs to wink regularly at the camera so their films can be accepted. Eventually, critics may even be able to review such films without using the word "Wham!".

This replicates the evolutionary pattern of science fiction movies, once defined by one-dimensional, pulpy 'serial' treatments (Buck Rogers, Flash Gordon) and drive-in, popcorn flicks (The Blob, Godzilla, The Amazing Colossal Man). The success of films such as Fantastic Planet, 2001 and others broke ground that allowed increasingly 'darker' and 'realer' films like Blade Runner to be considered alongside 'lighter' fare such as Star Wars. (Star Wars had its origins in lighter entertainments, although its gestalt changed as the series went along. At its outset, George Lucas considered the Star Wars 'episodes' updated remakes of the Rogers and Gordon serial genre.)

Both early sci-fi and 'superhero' movies dealt with early technical limitations of filmmaking by either going camp (a route taken by both the sci-fi serials and the superheroes) or noir (a route taken almost exclusively by sci-fi, in films such as The Man with the X-Ray Eyes). Sci-fi took advantage of new filmamking technologies to expand its range long before superhero flicks because the benefits for the genre offered by more 'believable' aliens and spaceships were self-evident. It was not as obvious how technology could change the story arc of superhero treatments, or improve bottom-line box office acceptance, until the recent breakthroughs by Spiderman and Xmen.

It's been pretty well documented that the recent failures of Batman films, along with the lucrative potential of the character, persuaded Warner to risk a different direction for the franchise. This, along with the trend toward more-serious 'graphic novel' comics, led directly to the 'neo-realism' breakthrough. Nolan and Goyer used CGI and other new technologies to make possible new stunts and to enhance real sets and props, rather than to replace them. This resulted in a breakdown of the CGI 'Third Wall' that had replaced much of the Adam West-style winking designed to facilitate suspension of disbelief. For the first time, Superhero Cinema is not asking the audience to suspend its belief. Instead, Nolan is demanding it.

It's a gamble, and Nolan knows it. The cast, writer and crew are charged up to continue the anticipated trilogy, but Nolan is reserved. He has told interviewers he would wait to see how the film does before considering another Batman project. The director understands that his film requires a type of acceptance unlike anything demanded by previous comic book films. He also knows moviegoers expecting a Spiderman or X-Men may be taken aback by what Begins actually delivers. (This is a real consideration for parents expecting a film suitable for children - which Batman may or may not be, depending on the child.) Nolan is concerned about the film finding its audience - his usual art house crowd may not follow him to comic book land, while fanboys will have to content themselves without some of the standard comic book trappings (even the fact that the movie could not abide a Danny Elfman score has been deemed sufficient grounds for grumbling in some quarters.) Already, we've seen a number of critics struggling to deal with the gap between their expectations for a film of this genre, and what the movie actually delivers. Warner's hope is that Batman, as a cultural icon, has the power to bring people into the theater and take the film on its merits.

Our view is that the public, in the end, is not only capable of accepting but actually craves breakthrough fare. So long as they deliver the goods, films such as Minority Report, Fight Club, The Matrix and Batman Begins will find their way to broad and passionate acceptance.

Dark Horizons does a fine job exploring the themes mentioned in this post. Another perceptive review appears at Smart Popcorn.

{UPDATE: Nolan may well have been right in his concerns that audiences would not know what to make of this new film. The Wednesday opening turnout was lighter than expected, and Warner was frantically polling audience members to gauge reaction. The first weekend's numbers will tell the story, as word-of-mouth spreads from Wednesday's attendees. Hard-core Batfans (who overwhelmingly like the film) are spreading the meme that, if the first weekend tanks, Warner is likely to pull the plug on the projected trilogy. Warner's strategy all along has counted heavily on wooing fanboys to repeat viewings via Howard Dean-type grassroots Internet appeals. We'll know soon if this works.}

{UPDATE 2: Box Office Mojo reviewed the film after its first weekend of release. While the studio spun the opening numbers in a more positive light (even claiming the numbers were sufficient to greenlight a sequel), BOM took an unblinking look at the difficulty of selling an underplayed superhero movie. With this baggage, and the baggage from the earlier Batman and Robin (which stalled the franchise nearly a decade ago), the jury is still out on whether the public will really embrace this film. Complicating this analysis is the fact that the movie industry as a whole seems to be in the midst of a cyclical downturn.}

{UPDATE 3: We also liked this unusual review of how business ethics and corporate identity come into play in Batman Begins.}

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Campaign report cards

For the Marsh and Roberts camps, grades are out in the key aspects of the campaign and runoff.

ADVERTISING, MARKETING, & COMMUNICATIONS:

Roberts - D. The Roberts campaign wasted far too much time on poorly-conceived attacks on Marsh. In the runoff, their approach has improved somewhat - but Marsh's has improved even more. Roberts' message, for the most part, just looks lost out there.

Marsh - B. The Marsh campaign's message came out of the gate with its usual problems. The group's ads are typically hampered by overly-cute and occasionally obscure references, poor focus, poor issue choices, and unintentional exclusions of voters outside their social circles. But in the runoff, their focus improved and they succeeded in getting some issues out, rather than repeatedly (and self-defeatingly) proclaiming themselves smarter and more honest than their opponent. The campaign also pared down its message. They dumped some non-issues that were holding them back. (An example was their insistence in having a politically confusing and pointless line at the bottom of ads saying that they were obeying the spirit of 'pay-to-play' while Roberts was circumventing that spirit. This message was spun off into its own series of ads from a group friendly toward the Marsh campaign.) This improved their clarity and sharpness of message. By campaign's end, Marsh's marketing had succesfully defined the issues to a degree that resulted in this Weekend Journal front page. (Had the campaign started out with the same focus they showed in the runoff, they would have earned a higher score.)

Our comments: In modern politics, the message is the campaign, the message is the candidate. Marsh's campaign had much less to spend but was far more effective than Roberts. Considering the slate's major disadvantage in outreach, we don't believe this advantage is quite enough to win. (They'd have to deliver an 'A' message all the way and still make some improvements in outreach to overcome the gap in public support between themselves and Roberts.) However, if Marsh does win, the wide edge in messsage is the reason why. A strong, well-planned Roberts message could have prevented the runoff altogether by gaining a mere 12% of the over 40%-undecided electorate (rather than the zero percent it actually gained) during the initial campaign.

OUTREACH:

Roberts - B. Any Mayor starts out with a built-in outreach advantage. He is the Mayor, after all, and he's supposed to be out and about, seeing to the city's business. Add to that the fact that most Council members were elected as part of his slates. Those Council members are expected to campaign for the Mayor's slate, whether they themselves are currently up for election or not. In addition, other elected officials are pitching in, and all the campaign 'also-rans' who have offered endorsements are endorsing Roberts.

Marsh - C-minus. Marsh's group does well with people already inclined to support them. That is a significant and vocal portion of the city - but they need to be able to reach out to a much broader segment than the 25% (or so) they can naturally generate. This is a major weakness in their approach to politics, and always has been. It's an approach that's great for keeping the faithful motivated, but atrocious for bringing different (and often conflicting) personalities into the fold and keeping them there.

A good example of a politician with strengths in this regard was Bill Clinton. Clinton was a charismatic, natural coalition-builder, capable of making many different types of people feel comfortable with him. It's not that anyone in this campaign has to rise to the level of a Bill Clinton. Personal magnetism in this campaign is so generally lacking (with the possible exception of Raia) that a little would have gone a long way.

Our comments: The Marsh slate did a great job in rounding up an army of volunteer workers. They would earn an 'A' if their entire political task consisted of rounding up support from their like-minded friends and neighbors. Alas, politics does not work that way... the famous, Shakespeare-inspired 'strange bedfellows' cliché was coined for good reason.

The length of the runoff works in Roberts' favor. The Mayor can spend the time mending fences, cutting deals, and forming alliances using the political relationships he already has in place. Frank Raia, who as we explained earlier is a significant political influence, is effectively changing minds on the Mayor's behalf. We also have ears to the ground, and the feedback we get is that fence-sitters are moving to Roberts' side. We are just not hearing anything suggesting that Marsh will see a surge of new support from some segment of the city. We are even hearing of demographically-likely potential Marsh voters going the other way.

The number of Roberts' signs that have quickly sprung up during this runoff testify to the effect of these powerful factors, for which the Marsh campaign has no counter.

Should the Marsh campaign fail, it will cite lack of resources (in comparison with the mayor) as the reason. If Roberts has overwhelming resources, this group was fully aware of this fact before the election. That was the time to do outreach, and to strike the best deals they could make with the other factions that ran for office, to build a coalition that could succeed. Had they done so, they would have entered the race in a much stronger position both financially and in terms of broadening their base of support. Equally important, they'd have shown an ability to weave disparate factions together - as anyone who hopes to be an effective politician must do.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Marsh campaign breaks into Waterfront Journal offices, replaces their front page with campaign ad!

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Actually, probably not. But there was a world of difference between the Waterfront Journal's (above) and the Hoboken Reporter's (below) front page treatment of the very same story this week.
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Ironically, the Waterfront Journal is owned by the Jersey Journal - which endorsed Roberts. (Unless they've changed their minds?)

The slant is complete right down to the choice of images used - Marsh's image is a retouched campaign photo, Roberts' image is a rather unflattering, candid stock image showing him in mid-speech. (The Reporter used campaign-provided images of all the candidates.)

Our (satirical) headline aside, we have no explanation for the Journal's lapse in editorial restraint. Perhaps, since they're in tabloid format already, they've decided to position themselves as the New York Post of the Jersey side.

If the Waterfront Journal ever does a front-page story on YOU - try to be there for the press run.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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Blog roundup #4

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EnlightenNJ has a roundup of goings-on around the New Jersey blogosphere.

We are forgoing our own blog roundup this week, because we are having a Carnival of the Vanities coming here on Tuesday. We'll pick up the thread in next week's roundup, which will feature a new piece of art to mark these blog digests.

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The politics of endorsement

In the Jersey Journal's May 21st 'Political Insider' column, a few words (62) appeared about Scott Delea. [Full disclosure: Delea is the candidate we promoted during the election. We also did an ad for him in this week's paper.] The writer said he's 'an up and comer', comparing him to Howard Dean. (The comparison was meant to be flattering, although probably not if you're a Republican.) Just a few kind words.

A much longer letter (298 words) in the June 9th Journal said, in effect, that not only was Delea no Dean, but that Delea had revealed himself to be a fraud by coming out in support of Roberts. The writer was a backer of Carol Marsh's slate.

In the often-intangible world of politics, the 'right' kind of endorsements are about as close to hard political currency as it gets. In the campaign's closing days, the Marsh campaign has been energetically pushing the mantra that anyone who endorses or supports Roberts has strayed from the one true path.

This post examines who has offered endorsements, and what might be argued, from one camp's POV or the other, regarding their value and meaning. Draw your own conclusions regarding which endorsements are most meaningful, and what - if anything - each might mean.

1) THE ALSO-RANS. Everyone who (a) ran during the election, (b) did not make the runoff, and (c) has seen fit to publicly endorse a candidate, has endorsed Roberts. (Some, like Evelyn Smith, have endorsed no one.) Even Michael Russo, Soares & Marsh's Council ally, endorsed the Mayor. EXPLANATIONS: As in the Journal letter mentioned above, Soares & Marsh have been quite explicit in asserting that these endorsements were 'deals' made by these candidates to advance their own agendas. Roberts would likely say that those who ran for office have the best, insiders' knowledge of the remaining candidates, and don't like what they see on the Soares/Marsh side. [In the 2003 Council election, none of the candidates who failed to make that runoff endorsed the Soares/Marsh slate, either.]

2) THE POLITICAL MAINSTREAM. Hudson County politicians, to no one's surprise, are a solid wall behind Roberts. EXPLANATIONS: Soares/Marsh would say it's machine politics as usual. Roberts would say that seasoned politicians are the best judges of who can and cannot be effective in office.

3) CITY WORKERS AND THEIR UNIONS. This group almost always supports whoever is in office. It is one of the major benefits of incumbency. EXPLANATIONS: Soares/Marsh would again point to this as machine politics. Roberts, as every mayor does, would claim there was no undue pressure swaying their decision.

4) THE JERSEY JOURNAL. The Journal backed Roberts. EXPLANATIONS: Soares/Marsh might argue that the Journal doesn't know the real facts, or is prejudiced against them for some reason, or is reluctant to endorse a long shot, or is afraid to stand up to an incumbent, or was somehow bought off. Roberts would counter that the Journal also backed him (along with Soares and Marsh, who were on his slate) when he was the insurgent in 2001, and Russo was the heavy favorite. Roberts might add that the Journal backed Melissa Holloway for Jersey City mayor this year, even though she was the longest of long shots (she barely even got on the ballot). (The Journal's endorsement went on at length regarding her character and committment to serve the people of Jersey City.) Roberts might add that, far from not understanding the issues, the Journal probably knows them better than the average citizen, since reporting the news is their business.

5) LOCAL BUSINESS LEADERS. Local merchants and businessmen rarely take sides around election time, as they feel there is nothing to be gained (monetarily) from it. One exception this year was Eugene Flynn, whose restaurants (Amanda's and the Café Elysian) are in the heart of Soares/Marsh's strongest area of support. Flynn sent a letter to his customer list, which also appeared in this week's Hoboken Reporter. Rather than low-key his support for Roberts, or apologize to his customers for his relationship, Flynn said outright that the mayor was his good friend and an honest man. EXPLANATIONS: Soares/Marsh would suggest Flynn was under pressure to endorse the mayor. Roberts would counter that Flynn was under customer and neighborhood pressure NOT to make such a strong endorsement.

6) UNKNOWN, OR NEW, GROUPS. This election has seen ads from many little-known local groups, such as this week's 'Moms for Marsh', supporting Soares & Marsh. EXPLANATIONS: Soares & Marsh would cite that these endorsements constitute wide grassroots community support. Roberts would claim that many of these groups 'exist' only for the campaign, and were invented because no 'real' groups (firemen, elected officials, business groups, etc.) support Soares & Marsh.

7) LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: A rough count suggests that Soares & Marsh have the edge in letters to the local paper. Further, a good number of the letters supporting Roberts are from elected officials. EXPLANATIONS: Again, Soares & Marsh would claim grassroots support. Roberts might counter that Soares & Marsh focus on getting out more letters because they are cheaper than ads, but are the equivalent of ads because they are often written by the campaign, not the person credited with the letter. (On both sides, letters to the editor during a political campaign are rarely happenstance.)

8) VOLUNTEERS. Volunteering for a candidate's campaign is a form of endorsement. Soares & Marsh have a small army of volunteer workers. Most of Roberts' workers are compensated. EXPLANATIONS: Soares and Marsh would again point to grassroots support, claiming this as proof that they are the people's choice. They would probably include an allusion to the Hudson County Democratic machine. They might add something along the lines of, 'The Mayor has to pay to have friends/support'. Roberts might counter that Soares & Marsh's volunteers come from only a very few segments of the community (mostly professionals, with a large percentage of people who are fairly new to the community). He might point to that as indicative of a limited outreach, and he might suggest that most people who have been in town longer than a few years know the real score.

{PART OF A SERIES: The 2005 Hoboken municipal election}

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