Sunday night: December 5, 2004

Perspective on Chaos.

Don't say that I didn't warn you. A financial dollar crisis is in the making and is fast approaching. For what it is worth minimize your risks as much as you can until we have a better feel on how this dollar crisis is going to resolve itself.


I am 80+ years of age and have never but never felt so professionally despondent.

Its not my physical or mental health. My cardiologist says he has never seen a more fabulous heart surgery recovery. Mentally, judge for yourself!

My usual hobbies go along very well; just put the first boom on the "CONSTITUTION" which is now year six in construction (complexity personified). In politics, I helped turn back a very dangerous radical. My family does well and is well. Sites are doing very well.

I hate no one, dislike some but not many. Happy with this island and other than crazy sleeping habits (writing this at 03:09) totally and completely content. No Money problems, no personal problems of any consequence. am able to cope with life easily and have lucked out with the most fabulous wife any man could ask for.

Why then am I professionally despondent?

All over the world the attitude is normality. Everybody and every nation of consequence is acting as if nothing is going on, nothing is going wrong, don't do anything; just sit there and suck your thumb.

In my 80 years I have never known the world to be in such a state of chaos as it is right now. I don't object to the chaos as much as I object to the fact that, once again,  everybody in command seems asleep at the switch. If they are awake they don't show it or evidence it!

If the study of history reveals one thing it is that this kind of an approach ALWAYS leads to disaster! This has always but always been the approach of the so-called leaders of the world.

DON'T DO ANYTHING BECAUSE IT MIGHT GO AWAY.

DON'T TELL THE PEOPLE BECAUSE IT MIGHT SCARE THEM.

WHAT THEY DON'T KNOW WON'T HURT THEM.

Europe is flat on its back and they are just sitting there letting it get worse!

"The GDP (of France)  at 1995 prices, seasonally and trading-days adjusted, grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2004. Household consumption expenditure remained nearly stable (-0.1% after +0.5%) and contributed by --0.1 point to GDP growth. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation of Non-Financial Enterprises decreased by 1.0% "

"Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Germany's unemployment rate rose in November to the highest since December 1998 as business confidence fell to its lowest in more than a year and companies including BASF AG announced job cuts.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 10.8 percent from 10.7 percent in October as the number of jobseekers climbed by 7,000 to 4.46 million, the Federal Labor Agency said in Nuremberg. Economists predicted an unchanged rate, the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed."

In the history of the world if there is one thing that stands out above all else it is that:

 CATASTROPHES HAVE ALWAYS BUT ALWAYS COME UNANNOUNCED, UNANTICIPATED AND OUT OF THE BLUE!

I am shocked and disheartened by:

When the so-called powers that be they just sit there and do nothing the problems that are developing grow worse and worse. Neglect compounds problems because the sore is allowed to fester until it becomes contagious. It is not unusual for men in high places to freeze and to be ble to do nothing. The commanding generals in the Union armies in the civil war frequently froze in place and did nothing when they were confronted with untenable situations.

The commanding General of France in the invasion of France by the Germans in 1941 froze in place and did nothing. Herbert Hoover froze in place in 1929. The Federal Reserve never knew what hit them and they did nothing in 1929 to 1939.Thy didn't know how to react to economic adversity and being bureaucrats took the easy way out of doing nothing, nothing at all.

The Socialist parties are in power all over the world. France is Socialist, Germany is Socialist , Canada is Socialist. Sweden, Norway, Denmark and most of Europe are socialist nations. They do not believe in the private sector. They are committed to use monetary means for controlling the business cycle. They have shot their bolt and it isn't working; no great surprise. According to idiot monetary theory a la Milton Friedman all you need to do to control the business cycle is to control the money supply . Simple isn't it, but it doesn't work!

For three years Europe has been in stagnation and no matter how much they lower interest rates they can't get out of stagnation. For an entire decade the Japanese have been in economic stagnation going from one recession to another. They have reduced interest rates to zero but it doesn't do any good: they still lurch from one recession to another. In the United States we did the exact same thing but with a difference: we cut taxes on the private sector and  it worked! Our economy is moving forward; two thirds of the world is stagnating because they are pursuing ridiculous ideological economic policies.

The flip side is that the reduction of interest rates to 0ne to two percent have generated a housing boom and a housing speculation. Base prices  for housing here in Nantucket are going up 15/20 percent a year and the costs of construction are going up 10 percent a year. For upper income housing the percentages are much higher. We now have a housing bubble.

 

Alan Greenspan began the run on the dollar. How it ends is beyond me. We are in uncharted waters. The financial risks are getting to be enormous. It could get dirty and catastrophic. As you well know I advocate pulling over onto the side of the road until the storms passes over. Minimize your financial risks as soon as possible. Do it and don't listen to anybody. Better safe than sorry!


Email me about anything that interests you and I promise an answer, and who knows, we both might enjoy the exchange?

 

 


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