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Feb 18 , 12:46 PM
The Big Bangs
by Stirling Newberry
Recently the love hate relationship between reporters and bloggers has turned to hate - writers in main media outlets such as the Washington Post have gone to outright libel of bloggers and blogging, and even more moderate writers have launched attacks which are vicious and dishonest - Jack Schafer and James Brady of the Post, Brooks of the New York Times have all launched vile personal invective and broad brush ad hominems in response to the growing ability of bloggers on the left to hold them accountable in ways that previously were the purview of the right. It was fine when right wing bloggers could bring down a black writer for the New York Times and install a rightwing slantmeister, it is not fine when bloggers on the left could hammer Howells of the Post for lying about Abramoff in order to spin a Republican scandal as bipartisan. The reality is that the blogging on the right is cryptoracist and the product of a Bush cult, a Bush cult that the old line media shares - it will go to any distance to protect him from the culpability from his criminal rise to power and criminal actions. It is heavily invested in his success, because if he is exposed as a fraud, so too are they. But the real story is deeper and it is economic. Not merely ethically challenged writers in the old media protecting their paychecks, but in a fundamental collision in the American economy which determines the shape of our political conflicts. America is not bipolar - but tripolar, and depending on how the division into two sides is made, the country is either lopsidedly reactionary, or lopsidedly progressive. The press, obsessed with their Bush worship, slants the dialog by engaging in organized attempts to prevent progressive political moment from having effect, and magnifying reactionary political moment. In truth the country is not polarized into two camps, but three. And that story is the root of the conflict which is playing out now between blogging on the left, the right and the punditocracy, because each represents one of the three poles. The alliance between conservative punditocracy and reactionary political forces is increasingly untenable, because it has lead to a disasterous series of policy choices, which are, in their cumulative effect, creating an increasingly bitter public mood. The press has not exactly lied, but it has enabled the reactionaries to lie, and is now trying to protect itself, by engaging in a cover up of their political and economic alliance. There are three stable solution sets, and each one is determined by how the three poles are grouped. Yes, this is a big complex post, but it is important, so bear with the whole story. Which links back to The Fourth Republic. The American economy has two different faces: one is a basic engine of how growth works, and the other is a basic assumption of the over all rate of growth. The way the economy works is by generating sprawl and new city centers. People move to them, provide services and establish first mover advantages, and the government's role is to keep oil, water and roads rolling. This system of growth - glimpsed in embryo in a few cities in the 1920's and turned into a way of life after the second world war - is what began with a big bang after the war. Let's take a look at payroll growth by percentage of payrolls that is, how many jobs are added based on the number of jobs that exist. To smooth out the recessions, this chart takes a 10 year moving average. That is, over the previous 10 years - starting with the data in 1939 then. It includes the World War II jobs boom, and continues to the present. The average for the entire period is .19% That is, on average the American economy added one fifth of one percent of its current job total to payrolls. If this were a matter of jobs breeding jobs, we'd expect the number to be constant. If it were a matter of smaller economies being more able to add jobs than larger ones, we would expect to see one downward trend. Instead we see two distinct cycles - a "modern bang", which begins with the run up to the Second World War and ends at the end of the 1950's, and a second "post-modern bang" of interstate highways and television. Each bang decays, with its peaks and troughs getting lower in a very orderly fashion. The modern bang, because it had pent up demand from the 1930's, happened far more quickly. What do these bangs consist of? To understand this it is important to look at city and metropolitan population during the period. By 1950, New York had nearly reached its maximum population - it would be the 2000 census before the city itself would have more people. Many other industrial cities would reach their maximum populations as well. The growth was not in expanding populations within cities, but in creating new city centers, and by population growth in metropolitan areas around existing cities. Old cities - like New York, Boston, Washington - are very population dense, and have higher population densities than "new cities" such as Los Angeles. The fundamental mechanism of growth in the modern period was to create a new Coast - the West Coast - and grow a series of cities there. The Post-Modern wave has created new zones in turn, first the rest of the West Coast, then Florida, and finally Texas and the Inland West. Consider 1920's top 10 American Cities: 1.. New York city, NY *...... 5,620,048 Note only one new city - Los Angeles. Note that of these cities, only New York and Los Angeles are more than 200 square miles, and most are less than 100 square miles. The result - other than LA, population densities of the largest cities in the US in 1920 range from Baltimore's low of 9,000 to New York's high of 18,000 - with a cluster around 14,000 p/mi^2. That is, in the pre-mechanized age, cities had to be walkable, trolleyable or horseable, and small cities were the rule. Now let us take a look at the city list from 2000 of the top 15 cities: 1. New York city NY 8008278 301.5 26561 Let's note the obvious - Los Angeles, after 80 years of growth, has a population density less than any top 10 city had in 1920. Of the 15 top cities in 2000, only 4 are old cities of high population density: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia and San Francisco. The rest are new cities - including one whose population density is 1/10 the lowest population density of 1920's list. Clearly there is a vast change in the way metropolitan areas grew through the cycle of the whole period - namely, from dense premechanized cities, to sparse mechanized cities. Lets plot it out of the 15 largest US cities, the number of which are "sparse" 1920 1 Los Angeles This pattern, which is duplicated even more strongly when looking at fast growing metropolitan areas, shows the two curves of growth, and the reason for the slow down. The industrial city was close and dense, the modern wave had these already existing cities grow rapidly from mechanized industrialization, and the creation of a few "new cities". The post-modern wave saw the explosion in size, not of new "dense" cities, but of many "sparse" cities. As the period wore on, these sparse cities began to reach medium population densities, and then finally densities which began to resemble old cities - Los Angeles in 2000 had a population density per square mile of 7951, which while below any other city of 1920, is twice the cluster of new city density. The pattern then is that the first modern wave was to create even greater density in existing cities, but that the next post-modern wave was to create a new kind of "sprawlopolis", where growth in old cities was primarily in the suburban rings - which resembled the new cities in their density and ability to knock down old use agriculture and second growth abandoned agriculture. The progress of the numbers also tells a very simple and straight forward fact: that the new cities of the post-modern wave have reached saturation of their structure - Los Angeles has broken away to form a "new old style city", but the rest have reached urbanization pressures at odds with the mechanism of growth. Now let us look at this in light of the graph at the top. The graph shows that there are two curves of growth, the first is the modern wave, the second the post-modern wave. the post-modern wave is now nearing a trough of long term hiring similar to the trough which lead to a transition from the modern "densification" wave to the postmodern sprawlification wave. While there is no assurance that this run through the mill will be enough to convince people that the post-modern wave is over, it is enough to put enormous pressure on its political system. :: And that pressure is the main subject of this essay, in the context of the Fourth Republic thesis. The American public has two fundamental expectations: one is an expectation of a particular rate of growth, the other is the expectation of how that growth is to happen. The calculations for medicare, social security, pensions and other future obligations, including housing values and the stock market - are calculated with a growth expectation, never mind how. However, the political choices made have been made to protect a particular manner of achieving growth, namely, the post-modern sprawlconomy. As the table above indicates - and comprehensive statistical surveys will show - the sprawl conomy was a big bang that is played out. We have now reached a 10 year payroll growth rate that is like the pit of the late Eisenhower years - a level of employment growth so low that it begins to create political tensions between those just barely in it, and those outside of it. We may get one more economic cycle, but shortly it will be clear - because the Medicare budget crisis will force clarity - that the rate of growth that the post-modern wave can deliver is short of the funds we have borrowed against it. This creates three possible political divisions of the progressive, conservative and reactionary poles. The reactionary pole is committed to the preservation of the sprawlconomy, and willing to accept slashing of promises to keep it - particularly promises made to other people in the dense metropolitian area. In short, in order for St. George Utah to continue to experience big growth, the pensioner in Detriot has to be screwed out of everything he owns. The Woofer (W '04) in Utah is fine with that. The progressive pole, wanting to fulfill promises made, demands that whatever needs to be done to generate the growth required must be done. They sense, or see, or can extrapolate, that there is in digital communications and other forms of economic development, a new big bang that can happen, should there be will to do it. While there is wild disagreement on how and what this means - the progressive pole is committed to a hunt for that solution. The conservative pole wants both - it wants the expectation of growth, and protection of the post-modern wage. In short, it is in never never land of demanding to have its cake and eat it too. The three divisions of the American political system are, then: 1. Yea or nay on protecting the post-modern economy, absent any other consideration. This forms an overwhelming reactionary-conservative coalition, with the reactionaries, who promise they can do it without pain, being the senior partners. 2. Yea or nay on protecting the promises made based on growth, absent any other consideration. This forms a progressive-conservative coalition, with the well moneyed and well mediad conservatives being the dominant partner. More on this particular solution set later. 3. Divisions over how to protect the post-modern economy, with the conservatives splitting between progressives pushing for restructuring of the economy, and reactionaries pushing for slashing promises made to others - or cultural questions over whether dense old cities, or new sprawl cities should be favored. This divides the country almost right down the middle. The reason the American political system is broken is that the press is more than willing to push (1), so long as it can defend its own selfish interests on sources and wiretapping - and as long as it can prevent (2) from either inverting to a progressive senior partnership in the coalition, or from dislodging the reactionary senior position in (1). While the conservatives dream of dominating both (1) and (2) - behind Senator Peter Pan from Arizona - the reality is that they cannot form a congress which is governable under these terms. This means that political discussion in the press alternates between mode (1) Bush worship, and mode (3) polarization. Discussion of (2) is just about forbidden. Name one pundit who lost his job because there were no WMDs in Iraq, becaue Bush's first round of revenue reductions slaughtered the economy for 18 months, because of mispredicting how well the Iraq war would go, or for covering up manifest incompetence in the handling of Katrina. The answer is 0. It will be 0 tomorrow too. The conservative press is protecting its stream of revenue, because it is part of the post-modern wave of economics. The current media conglomerates are products of financing, technology, distribution and law which allow their existence, and even foster it. The "small is beautiful" and specialization of the modern period is long since gone. The conservative press sees the internet solely as a time shifting and cost saving mechanism. It wants to otherwise behave as protons do - with the implied protections of having a big expensive printing press as a protective barrier to entry. The reason people like Schafer and Brady have publicly melted down on the Howell issue is that their butts are exposed to a cauldron of chomping sharks who, a decade ago, were held at bay by the entry barriers. Like all people who are just barely on the inside of the system, and can be turned out by a relatively small turn of events, they are willing to put aside all other morals and ethics in order to protect their positions. Howell's demotion is a stern warning to them: stop the left wing bloggers, or else you could be next the next time you need to kneepad for the reactionaries. To reaffirm the connection - the post-modern economy cannot produce the growth it has promised to itself. As it collapses inward - take a look a the graph again people, we aren't just in a slow spot in the economy, but in the dying embers of a system that cannot get enough oil or enough space to build another wave of cities with the population density of a rural county in France. The current flame war between the blogs on the progressive side and the conservatives in the press is an example of the problem of that growth - as the number of paying outlets goes down, and the number of educated people goes up, there is an inevitable conflict. Those not paid, as with the "penny dreadful" writers of the pre-revolution period in France, look at those who are paid as not sufficiently better or smarter for the difference in pay that is received. There are a few dozen people who blog full time outside of the system - having been at one time one of them, it earns one about what a copy editor makes at a major daily. One can make more in one month as business consultant than in one year as a paid blogger. But this conflict is, importantly, merely the expression of the larger political conflict. :: To summarize - the modern bang ended with the recessions of the late 1950's. It was replaced by a post-modern bang that exploited television, interstate highways and global manufacturing capabilities to produce a second, more sustained, series of waves of growth. As can be seen, it has now reached a point where it cannot deliver another wave of growth sufficient to meet its forward obligations. But just because the future has gone away, doesn't mean that the people living in the past have. The issue is not whether bloggers will replace newspapers. The suggestion is absurd. Newsgathering is capital intensive. However, that is not what newspapers make their value add on, nor is it why people have gone to reading blogs. What is at issue is the narrative of the news, how the facts are assembled, and how lies are allowed into the discussion where they are reasonable replacements for facts within a narrative. We don't have news, we have stories inspired by current events. And if we need WMDs in Iraq and secret meetings with AlQaeda to make the plot work - then write them in. The reactionary narrative - which is why they attack the press for being "liberal", a word meaning, loosely, anyone who isn't a cryptoracist neo-imperialist darwin denying drug addled thug - is that the current sprawlconomy can go on forever. Oil is a "bottomless well" and "technology will produce a perpetual boom". In short, growth will happen to trendline, so the question is what kind of world you want to live in. The reactionaries want a world without swarthy people in it, or at least ones that know their place as servants and oil drillers for the master race. The conservative narrative wants this to be true, badly. It wants to believe that there is no future problem that the future can't solve, and that they can, therefore, continue paying themselves lots of money, while someone else runs the country so they have time for Friends, American Idol and lots of skiing trips. Hobbies are life, reality is a detail. However, the conservative narrative does not fit the reactionary narrative at key points, while they can agree on the headlines "Bush stands firm with manly manliness" - the actual stories don't fit, the facts, such as how many people got waxed playing Rumsfeld Roulette this week, don't fit in with the "Submission Accomplished!" narrative that the right wing demands every day. The compromises between reality and fantasy occasionally erupt into embarrassment - which is quickly swept under the rug. It is no wonder there has been an explosive growth in progressive blogs. It isn't that we are reporters, or news gatherers largely, it is that we assemble a very different narrative around the facts as they exist. That narrative centers around a single thing that every progressive - from button downed pinstripe suit guy like myself, to the most hippie headed pot smoking "Bush is Hilter!" type: "This mother's going to blow". That's really all there is too it. We see the downward trendline of growth, and the upward trendline of expectations - both in terms of our baby boom retiring, and in terms of billions of people in India and China wanting our mechanized life style - against the limited rate at which technology can extract, or improve the utilization of, oil - and say "these lines diverge". Now what happens when they do is an area of wide disagreement. Out on the lunatic fringe the theory is that Bush is Hitler and that soon, if not already, there will be government plots to blow up builidings and blame arabs, and then round up all the subversives and kill them. In more moderate circles we see currency meltdowns or slashing of Social Security and Medicare, combined with some mechanism for political repression. The difference isn't really about what is going to happen, it is the lurid mythopoetics of how it is going to happen. In reality, it is a debate that goes back to Huxley and Orwell - with Huxley's Brave New World representing the "sheeple" version that moderates see, and 1984 the totalitarian freeple version. The problem of the progressives is that once this point is established, that is "this motha's going to blow", the second point is not. There is no "this is the way to the promised land" narrative of the future. Thus conservatives go back into bed with the reactionaries, who, if nothing else, always have a good story about how oil is a bottomless well and everything is fine once we nuke the ragheads into submission and seal up the borders from the swarthy hoards to the south. It's an abusive marriage, but it is all people like Brady have to go on. It gets ugly when red state racism gets put into play, and a bit tense when Cheney just goes out and lies to the press about how he went out drinking, wenching and shooting - but it stays together as long as the river of money keeps pouring in from China and Saudi Arabia, and, especially, as long as the sheeple don't care that a few of them turn up dead every morning, and the grass is getting sparser. :: I know I've taken horribly unacceptable slapshots in the middle of a think piece, that I should have been all technocratic and let people draw their own conclusions, but that don't work now, do it? If people could add subtract divide and hit "add trendline", we wouldn't have Bush in office. If in 2000 we had gotten President Gore, it might have been possible to evict the Republicans from the House in 2004, and we might have been able to put together one more cycle on the post-modern bang. With wireless technology we might well be enjoying a to trendline peak of employment - lower than the 1990's but still pretty good compared to our current situation. But that was not chosen, instead, a media overcome with Bush worship decided that it was simply going to lie to the public, or if not lie, that it would be impolite to point out that 2+2 does not equal 10012453094534986934 even with very Republican values of 2. Since being polite means - zero - there's no reason to do it. Telling the truth is a very costly hobby, and it upsets people, but not telling the truth only lets you sit at the table and lie somemore. I've got the arrows in my chest to prove it. So let's get back to the whole big picture: 1. Jobs and population data, among many others, this could be a doorstop statistical survey if I wanted - show two distinct waves of growth in the post-depression economy: a modern wave of increase in dense old cities, and a post-modern wave of expansion of sparse cities. 2. Both waves have predictive top and bottom trendlines. 3. The population data indicates a saturation of the post-modern wave, and the attempt to form a new post-modern wave requires resources that have already been promised as social security and medicare - among other things. 4. This is confirmed by the current to trend line bottom in long cycle payroll creation, which while nasty, is about where we should be given an incompetent handling of things. But we were headed here anyway, as anyone who wants to plug in the general equilbrium results of higher interest rates to tame inflation can find out for themselves. 5. The current political conflict boils down then to whether people are asked whether they want to keep the current promises of growth, the current sprawlconomy, or some combination of both. Asked a no trade off never never land version of the question, and people overwhelmingly choose "Yes!!!!" Asked to make tradeoffs, and they are closely divided. 6. The present media system, being attached to the post-modern sprawlconomy favors, of course "fuct the peons, I just want my check" and aggressively attacks potential threats to their staying on the spigot of money. This is duplicated across the system. This means that when the chips are down, they are with the reactionaries who believe the same thing: protect the sprawlconomy at all cost. Particulary to others. 7. The progressive meta-narrative on the blogs does not have political effect because one, the conservative officeholders are still standing around believing that if we just sit on our butts long enough, oil wil gusher out of the ground someplace and everything will be AOK. It also does not have an effect because beyond a general agreement that we aren't going to trip over a Saudi Arabia and invent a no Carbon engine in the next 5 years, it doesn't agree on the next step, that is, what the meta-narrative option is - what other road one can go down. 8. While the conflict between conservative media and progressive bloggers on the left, and indeed conservative members of the Democratic Party and progressive political forces - is jet fueled by the gross pay disparities involved, the disparities are the result of the above system. The conservative politicians and press represent the present, dysfunctional, but not catstrophically failed system that is in place. They own the damn across the river, even if there is less and less water coming through it. To see where this can go, consider Japan, they steadfastly refused to change their economic system in the wake of 1987, suffered nearly 20 years of a "Bright Depression" and the LDP stayed in power almost the entire time. They were willing to sacrifice a generation rather than fix the systemic problems. :: Now for the Fourth Republic again. Political economy is the way to codify the flow of activity. Money is a way of blessing some actions, and condemning others to being hobbies or private obsessions. The First Republic promised to pay back debts in silver, so it created silver money, and had people do things that got silver. The Second Republic promised gold, so it created an economy that was targetted at exporting to countries that had gold. The Third Republic promised fiat - that is security - and so created a land based system that sent people fanning out across the US to turn smallvilles into sprawlvilles. The present monetary system is reaching that crisis point which signals the collapse of a governing order. As with previous collapses, the first phase is a reactionary Republic whose solution is to suspend payment in the old currency, and demand the direction of all future effort to sustaining the wealth claims of those who are entrenched. While we haven't said so, the appointment of Ben Bernanke represents the victory of the Riccardan Equivalence Hypothesis, which says we never need to repay the debt. This marker in the collapse system will work until such time as there is an unresolveable conflict between furture demands. Generally this takes only 3 to 5 years, but it may take longer or shorter in our case. In any event the fundamental constitutional mechanisms of the previous order are, one way or another, dead, and being replaced by new ones. The Liberal Democracy has been replaced by the Reactionary Oligarchy. Our present conflict then will continue as long as those to whom payment has been suspended are happy with the debt service they are getting, and that debt service does not require collapsing the economy enough to make a few million people willing to break things to change it. There's alot of ruin in a country, but not an infinite amount. This stage will continue until castrophic failure discredits the reactionary-conservative alliance and its narrative, or there is a compelling counter narrative of the left that involves an option people would actually take - and while the "we will grow fuel and burn it" is one of those bad ideas that gets play every now and again, the numbers for earth and water show that it amounts to strip mining the soil. Either the US will become like China - a very controlled oligarchy that burns coal and, in effect, taxes people's lives to get the electricity it needs - or the US will have to radically restructure the sprawlconomy. While opponents of the post-modern wave imagine a neo-modern super-density system, the likelihood is instead that the workable course is to convert the sprawlconomy into the micro-politian economy - where energy production is linked to habitation, money is linked to energy, and thus a transition from land based money to energy based money is made possible. This narrative - of a neo-renaissance mill economy - which focuses on a very different form of social organization - will not come about overnight. First it will have to fight the "hyper-post-modern narrative" where blogging, say, replaces the morning paper and podcasting replaces the news, with a hoard of active screamers to slaughter dissent and pyramid internet media replacing pyramid broadcasting media, as well as the "protectionist thug" narrative - where we slam the doors shut to the outside world, but magically, they keep selling us cheap oil - as well as the "just strip mine the soil" neo-maoist narrative. All of these failed progressive narratives are bigger, louder and have more powerful backers, because they all are, really, the meta-narrative of the present, with different choices about how gets butchered and eaten to pay for everyone else. They are, in short, progressive in that they recognize that the present does not work, but reactionary in that they are cannibalistic. If this kind of bluntness isn't going to win me any converts in the screamocracy that the progressive left is building - the belief that if we scream loud enough, Bush gets toppled and that is all that matters - it doesn't concern me. Bush isn't the problem. He is on the low side of a 50 year trendline handling of things - a D+ student - but replace him with anyone, and you still have a system that is going down a long term channel. Replacing him with Her Royal Clintonness will merely buy people 50 to 60 enough time to cash out, and go down to the next sunny boomberg to retire, so long as we keep enough mexicans in ignorant poverty to wipe their aging bottoms and mow their lawns. It doesn't work, and no one should believe in it. But millions of people believe if they just elect John McCain, or perhaps HRC, then they will find a way to keep the swarthy hoards in their place as oil drillers and butt wipers while their Google stock recovers enough to enjoy shuffleboard by twilight. This may sound angry, but it isn't, it is that we are about to see the future come straight at us, and there is no future for the sprawlconomy in that future. While people grasp at peak oil, or global warming, or the collapse of job growth - the reality is that we are surrounded by a deadly electric fence in all directions. Burn more oil, lose more cities. Burn less oil, loose more jobs and pensions. Burn oil better, lose jobs to growing boombergs in China and India. There are tradeoffs - but they all break one or more of our assumptions. As long as people in the press, and even in the blogsphere, pretend that there is a no paradigm shift version of the future, or that we can slaughter a few million people's futures to save our own - well, that leads to what is called a World War - or rather a generational period of sustained conflict, similar to the period at the end of the Renaissance culminating in the Thirty Years War, the period from the Seven Years War through the Napoleonic Wars, or the Two World Wars, which Churchill, in his insight called "the second Thirty Years War" in his memoirs. The progressive sphere, realizing that catastrophe will be required for change, then starts hoping for catastrophe now. Peak oil had to be yesterday. It isn't and wasn't. The numbers - both the charts here and others I have been posting for the last two years - show that we are not to the point of collapse, but merely on the bottom end of sustainability for the current political system. And simply because we have reached the point of having to butcher our own citizens and eat them, doesn't mean we won't. We've done it before. Japan did it through the 1990's. Other nations, such as Russia, have done it more recently. Just because we haven't done it in a couple of generations on the scale required to solve our problems, doesn't mean we can't or won't. My lack of patience with the screamocracy of my own side excedes, at this point, my lack of patience with the old press. I can understand why Brady spews libel and other spew excuses for Judith Miller. It's their jobs at stake. It is their own self-interest to burn the house down to toast the last marshmellow. It is not in the progressive left's interest to fuel non-narratives, or to capitulate before the least imaginative individuals in it and their screaming. It is not in the progressive lefts interest to ignore these charts, or the theoretical lesson behind them. Namely, in order to survive we must have a new constitutional order, for the progressive left to produce that order it must form an alliance with the conservative wing of the political spectrum - since the reactionaries are, at this point, unable to even shoot straight. To do this it must outline a mandate for the new order, a mechanism by which that order will pay off the debt racked up by the old one, and a meaning that will tie both together. However, personal jealousies, the unwillingness to engage in leadership, and the monetary reality that it is still all about the eyeballs until such time as there is a non-postmodern stream of revenue - will hold this back until such time as an individual and an economy can take shape that will act as synchronization. Such individuals are often obscure until they emerge - who was Lincoln? Who, before the Revolution, was Washington? Or even FDR? They were not quite somebodies, but not towering figures. This has been a long journey - from a relatively important historical economic reading, linked with the present blogger-report conflict, and leading back to the grand division of America into three poles, each of which is suffering from its own peculiar delusions. The reactionaries think they can borrow their way out of debt, kill their way to peace, burn their way to energy, and stupid down their way to technological military superiority. The conservatives want to have promised growth from a system that is winding down. The progressives want something different, but are unwilling to back people who actually outline what "different" means, instead opting for a reactionary solution of finding someone's ox to gore. The public, while unhappy, is not opting for any of these positions consistently, because they sense, even if they can't say, that none offer what they want - a road ahead, a simple story that they can be part of, even if just as part of an extra in a crowd scene marching stage left, right, or center. I could spend every day coming up with a new factoid on "why this won't work" and get a small audience of people who will believe it. One of the most read past posts on this site is Oldman's discussion of the yield curve - and currency collapse. However, I am insistent on talking about the need for a future, because that need gets louder with every passing day, and it is obvious with every passing day that the screamocracy doesn't want that future any more than the reactionaries do - because everyone is still busy fighting over the 1960's and who got them right. The 1960's was were our current economy became dominant - though it was born in the 1950's - and thus the fights over which version of it are right go on to this day. Just walk into any energy discussion and say "nuclear power" and suddenly it is the luddite hippies against the star struck technologists all over again. Reason flies out the window, hatreds are born. What is important to realize is that we cannot go back to the old pyramid system - where insiders picked different possible configurations, and had the public pick them with elections and consumption. The barrier to keeping insiders inside is too low, the public doesn't have the money to support it, the insiders are no longer willing to pay to keep the peons around in many cases, and the peons are becoming paranoid raving lunatics because they know they are being lied to, and like working classes from time immemorial, they come up with bizarre and ornate legends to explain what is going on. They are willing to believe in vampires or bombs in the WTC before they are willing to believe in economics - the have seen misquitoes and firecrackers, so they know those from personal experience, they've never seen a supply demand curve. In short, our present system isn't just physically limited - it is mentally unbalanced, and producing a larger and larger supply of mentally unbalanced people and mentally unbalanced stories. For these reasons it is important to keep to the three point theme struck in the beginning: 1. Change is coming. Permalink Comments
One of your more important and useful posts, containing many of your themes in a useful form. There are paragraphs I will be able to cut-and-paste as attention grabbers. I recognize aspects of myself in so many of your targets. It must burn to have the likes of me as one of your most loyal readers. Posted by: bob mcmanus at February 18, 2006 05:12 PMActually, I would suspect the reverse is probably true. Posted by: Ian Welsh at February 18, 2006 06:45 PMNope readers don't burn me. getting burned by nonreaders is a different story. Posted by: Stirling Newberry at February 18, 2006 06:59 PMHoly shit. I view the economy in many ways and have tried to put everything together so that it made sense. This was a long read but it made more sense than anything my old muddled mind has tried to put together. I can't comment, past the idea that the fundamentalists are spurring the growth of the economy you label postmodern, the very thing they hate so much! Oh, cruel irony! Posted by: Tim at February 18, 2006 09:22 PMEveryday I find this blog more valuable. This article is going into my "favorites" file. I plan to show it to friends, for I too see many of the things mentioned within and this casts them in a new light, thanks. Posted by: rlp at February 18, 2006 10:26 PMAstute and eloquent. Great writing on these issues. "All the Truth asks, and all it Needs, is the Liberty of Appearing." --Thos. Jefferson We've been appoaching a dark singularity. Hubberts peak, Bird Flu, Housing Bubble, etc. ad nauseum, are are coalescing around a point in the not so distant future. Posted by: The Fool at February 19, 2006 02:56 AMBrilliant post.A few thoughts - even though the end of the old economic order may be obvious, it is not obvious to all - still lots of Tom Friedmans out there.Expect the psychology of previous investment to rule for some time. Meanwhile, the role for the progressives is not just to figure out the way forward.Even more crucially,an agreement needs to be thought out on sharing the costs of transition - something which the conservative and libertarian sets are congenitally incapable of doing. For the future is bound to create a whole class of economic left-behinds - people whose well-being was either explicitly or implicitly tied to the "sprawlconomy". Here,finally,is the fundamental reason why the Left alone can lead - they are the one political group that understands that transition from one economy to the next is impossible without an accompanying social contract.Leaving the negotiation of cost to "the free market" is an invitation for reactionary violence. That is all.Sorry for the tautology. Posted by: Jussi Hämäläinen at February 19, 2006 10:45 AMHuh. I currently make my living as a programmer for a large HMO. It's just something I fell into after graduating 10 years ago with a math degree. Nothing I hold any particular passion for. I've spent the intervening time looking for a calling. And I finally found it a couple years ago. I found that I am fascinated by transportation systems. Roads, rail, paths -- everything. Their dynamism, and especially the way transportation systems fundamentally inform urban growth. I've never held a driver's license. Now I am enrolled in a program to get a Master's in Civil Engineering, focusing in transportation. I hope to find employment as a transportation engineer when I graduate in 2 years. It looks like I will have some wonderful and amazing projects to work on in the decades ahead. It's good to know that there will be a demand for my services. And reading this post, I realize that I won't just be designing tomorrow's transportation systems, or even just the development that grows around them (which I'll be influencing at one remove) -- I'll be helping to create what tomorrow's economy, society, and politics looks like. Awesome. Posted by: Michael Wolfe at February 19, 2006 03:43 PMPeggy Noonan said this in an WSJ op-ed: "I think that a lot of people are carrying around in their heads, unarticulated and even in some cases unnoticed, a sense that the wheels are coming off the trolley and the trolley off the tracks. That in some deep and fundamental way things have broken down and can't be fixed, or won't be fixed any time soon." I hope Ms. Noonan stumbles into your piece. It tells the story better than anything I have read. http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110007460 Posted by: LJ at February 19, 2006 07:06 PMRegarding that inability to believe or allow, I sometimes feel that I am walking in a dream zombie world in my everyday encounters. Most people on the American street are clueless. Regarding the media, I would think that newspapers, particularly those in smaller metropolitan areas, would be supportive of a future that reinvigorated urban centers. As urban centers decay, and people fan outward, newspapers lose their relevance. Whereas 200,000 people middle-class living in the same city had enough issues to care about, 200,000 lower-class people living in a city, surrounded by 200,000 middle-class people dispersed in a 30-mile-wide exurban radius, are too tough to target. An urban newspaper trying to target the suburbs really just doesn't work. Suburbanites don't care about urban news, poor people don't read the paper, and a paper with one story a day about 15 different communities reaches no one. I have to believe the television media is in the same boat -- and that probably explains why over 50% of the nightly newscast is about the weather; it's the one thing that everyone is interested in. So why aren't we seeing the truth from smaller news outfits? Are they too conglomerate-owned, their reporting budgets too eviscerated? Posted by: NoPolitician at February 19, 2006 11:25 PMHeh. Well, you explain why my libertarian husband and I are working with the progressives right now - congratulations! Posted by: donna at February 19, 2006 11:34 PM"In short, our present system isn't just physically limited - it is mentally unbalanced, and producing a larger and larger supply of mentally unbalanced people and mentally unbalanced stories." Brilliant! FWIW my suggested solution is that we all start trying to tell sane stories with our lives; looks like a lot of the folks in comments are doing just that. Me, I am sitting here as the shippers pack up my house for my move to New Zealand, where I hope the next 40 years go a bit more smoothly than they might here. I don't know that it's necessary that we all tell the same story-- as long as they are all sane they will come together into a sane meta narrative. Posted by: Bruce at February 20, 2006 02:36 PMI am pinning all my future hopes on my ability to burn switchgrass. Posted by: rocki14 at February 20, 2006 02:38 PMSo... what can we do? Serously. I mean, perhaps I missed it in your post but from what I understand... if the house is burning down and we can't get out then why not turn up the radio and down that pizza for the few moments we have left? I'm not seeing any kind of solution from you. But there was a lot to read so maybe I missed it. Posted by: MNPundit at February 20, 2006 06:47 PMGreat !!! Lots of good quotes and much deep thought Food, Shelter & Health Care (Life Support) are the foundation to build around Thanks "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist thinks it will change; the realist adjusts the sails." - William Arthur Ward Posted by: daCascadian at February 20, 2006 11:45 PMStirling - Thank you. This one was worth the wait. The question of what direction the progressives can take that will make sense to non-political-junkie Americans takes me back to the heady and then awful days of Fall '04. Back then, you and Oldman (sigh..) and Ian were working through an articulation of a different kind of economic engine and cultural dynamic, which I thought was very compelling material, but seemed only sketched in what you posted here. Meanwhile, I was trying to distill something for myself out of this work, as it complemented my own thinking. The day after the election you posted Welcome to the Freeple's Republic ==================================== -------------- I gotta agree. This goes way beyond blogs or even the internet as such, and is the long wave phenomena that will (or should) shape the next several decades. As horribly ugly as recent events have been -- and there's no minimizing that aspect or the likely consequences -- they are also probably going to accelerate the movement in this direction. Now the harsh reality is upon us, we must organize more deeply, reach more meaningfully into peoples lives and needs, or we will continue to be brushed aside. And without a 'leader' .... So what choices do we have? Amidst all the other vital tasks of the day, we should consciously develop a blend of social software and offline organizing that can enable us to construct the standards, habits, and tools to serve as a counter and alternative to the all-embracing cocoon of the mass media/mass consumption narcotic and the enclave of Christian (or other) fundamentalisms. These provide narcosis or, in the case of fundie churches, a ready-made community of sorts. We need to build an alternative for people who are never going to be political junkies or 'countercultural'. Link people up, so they can teach and learn from each other; build efficient, loosely coupled economic networks that will eventually dwarf the current ebay; support each other in building both stronger communities and political campaigns, I also want to revive some of the themes Dean was sounding out: great American restoration, restoring American community & political participation, flag belongs to all of us, and so on. A real call to citizenship and renewed community -- realized in part through densely but loosely networked systems of the kind Stirling describes. How much ‘human capital’ goes to waste today as people with unique gifts aren’t put to work using them, and frequently die teaching no one what they have learned in this life? How about the moral values of diversity and expression and cultivating every vital soul to the fullest? And while we’re at it, let's articulate our own moral values, loud and clear: no torture, none, never: reform our prisons, dismantle the new gulag. Invest in real education, child and elder protection, and community, as if those things mattered as much as we say they do. There are a lot of social networks yet to be built out there about things even more meaningful than dating and business connections. Let's found these ‘cohesive networks’ on the moral principle that life, vitality, soul is to be nurtured and protected and uplifted to the fullest possible degree. In the same way that Dean hit some of the sweet spots for online political organizing and fundraising, and the blogosphere is now challenging the monopoly of the mass media, this phenomena will keep expanding, sector by sector, in one way or another. It will also be corrupted, coopted in all manner of ways, to a greater degree the more we let it happen rather than making it happen. Let’s grab hold now and nudge it as best we can into the shape of the future we want to live in. In the near term, postmodern though the Republicans may be with respect to the truth, they are also something of an old-fashioned industrial machine when it comes to tactical execution. Let’s put them up against a newfangled machine where all the pieces can think for themselves, not to mention fraternize with the cogs and wheels in the opposing machine, and see how they fare. Back to the present. You also elaborate some of this in your work on the Pyramid vs. the Sphere. Seems to me we need some catalyst to get this stuff to critical mass. You can't do a 'broader than ebay' without a lot of participants. We will need to draw more attention and interest than the understandably anger-fueled activism and cynical camaraderie that dominates activated progressive's attention right now. We need some cultural and symbolic elements to knit together and inspire more early adopters. And before long we will require some source of legitimacy, by which I mean something that will convey to those who've dismissed, checked out of, or been overwhelmed by politics that this isn't just some eccentric, moralistic, quixotic venture, but rather contains the seeds of actual and significant change -- as well as immediate benefits. Something people would choose, as you put it. DeanforAmerica had some legitimacy because Dean was mounting a presidential campaign. It's clear to me that without that imprimateur, he and Joe Trippi and Zephyr and all the rest of the, sadly, disorganized crew out of Vermont would never have reached a fraction of the people that they did. It was partly media coverage of course, but also simply the belief that this by definition was a serious matter, something (potentially) real. How are we going to make it Real? I'll give you the last word, from your chilling Sparta 286 Athens 254 -------------- The warnings from Madison and the founding fathers were clear: standing armies were the bane of a free people, and as soon as a majority could vote itself a subsidy from the public chest, it would be the end of free government. And so it has come to pass: the standing military, which Eisenhower called the "military industrial complex" has found itself a majority with which to tyrannize. The reason the left has been so weak is that the activist left sees itself as anti-capitalist, anti-corporation and anti-development and preaches radical agrarian austerity. Instead, it is through capitalism, corporations and development that the liberal wing of the polity will survive and grow. It is rent, not capital, that voted for Bush. Owning stock doesn't make one a capitalist - one is renting money to others. The need to protect this rental system rests on the view that money is a thing that you accumulate. This means that the bottom of society works by a "quantity theory of money". Inflation is caused by there being money available for consumption. They are in favor of the rich getting richer - because the rich will vacuum up every cent at the bottom, and therefore keep prices stable. This structure - trading income taxes for property taxes - which levels the real value of property - trading military for civilian growth - which favors the "God and Country" society - and trading rigid for flexible social arrangements - is not a distraction, and it is not immediately doomed. That is, as long as they can charge the rest of the world for the US protection of the oil system, they can get away with it. This will not last long, but it might be long enough to Japanify the society - create a permanent closed system within which there is no real social mobility, except by occasional windfall. The Lottery Effect.... Only a radicalized liberal aesthetic - social, artistic and political - can exploit the capital of digital communications, because only it can offer a new economic and social model which will create "careers open to talent" for those in the internet space. For decades those who wanted to rise thought of the liberal state as a grevious tax on their small stock of money - these people must be taught that money is like bandwidth - the wider it is, the more you can do, even if you have to spend more of it to get what you want. Example: Moveable Type uses up a lot more bandwidth that ftping websites up through dial up - but it does a lot more as well. Which would you prefer? Have more control over much less bandwidth, or more net bandwidth with more overhead. The right argues for the first, the left for the second. The way forward then is radicalization - to relentlessly push such elected officials as there are to understand that the capital and production parts of the economy are in depression - productivity is falling, and jobs for non military/security goods production are falling dramatically. And that the current borrow and squander subsidy for a military machine which is bigger than other nations are willing to pay for is not sustainable. This is life and death for us, and hence for them. There is no Alternative. /unquote/ So, I have to ask again, how are we going to make it Real? Cheers, Thanks for bringing the roles of cultural myths to our attention. I have been a fan of this blog for about nine months. I've learned several things. 1.) The fundamental problem of any economy is not how to feed the masses and keep them warm and healthy - it is how to maintain the position of the wealthy. They don't like change. 2) The wealthy are like everyone else - they don't mind bearing some burdens as long as they don't see that anyone else gets an advantage they don't have. They don't mind if a few people (not too many) join their "thing" as long as the newcomers behave like them and don't upset the order of things. 3) Interlaced with this problem is how to create a myth that keeps the overwhelming majority content with where they are socially/economically. It's not that hard. Most people are content to stay where they are as long as they don't see that someone else is reaping an advantage. Of course the problem is how to justify the existence of the privileged/wealthy in any society because many of those excluded will eventually resent their lot in life, even if their lot is relatively comfortable or at least manageable. So, fundamentally no one likes change except to right some perceived wrong, so the media/political spectrums need to create myths or adapt given myths to justify some injustice or at least convince people to be a little more patient. The best and most persistent myth is that some deity has ordained the established system as the only one proper and possible. This myth still has considerable efficacy even today. After 1789 in some parts of the world the promise of eternal salvation was replaced with the promise of upward mobility - that is, if someone wants it bad enough, they just need to work a little harder and voluntarily give up some (or all) of their dignity and sense of tranquillity and there's a small chance they'll succeed. One wonders why anyone would bother, since once you break through to another social stratum you still have to worry about the fragility of your status - it's just now you're among a different set of sharks. Also along your way up there are loads of sharks trying to siphon off your hard-gotten gains. When all other myths fail, just implant fear but this is a risky strategy because fear is difficult to control - you never know how it will work itself out and it's much more diffcult to quell a cycle of fear and violence then it is to instigate it.. If one can ignore the fear factor (difficult), I propose that most of the Western world is coming to terms with the demise of upward mobility and is making decisions on what are their acceptable minimums. convinced to make their homes more energy-efficient and learn to sweat a little in the summer and put on another layer in the winter, as long as they don't have to give up the value of their piece of the planet or their independent means of transportation. But I think USians are socialist in terms of medical care and retirement costs - they expect everyone to share in the cost. A tall order! Europeans have other expectations - they want to preserve their environment and culture and way of life and have already given up some personal comfort and privacy and independent transportation for that cause. Seems to be a tall order as well. I have no sense of what the Orientals are after - do they just want a bunch of Western goodies, or world dominance? Maybe everything they're doing is just imitative and has no real purpose? Does anyone know? I wonder if economic theories just fade into obscurity in face of the deepest desirees of different societies. It seems to me that money follows the myths and the other way around as well. I think debt is a problem only when the myth that perpetuates it flinches. I agree that the current "progressive" contingent just tears out the patches in the prevailing myths that the "conservative/reactionary" contingent invents to cover up the holes, but the progressives can't come up with an alternative. The prevailing narrative hold sway because no one has an alternative. I agree that the working classes are getting hysterical with fear because no one in the religious or political realm is talking sense. Everyone's narrative changes by the day. No one is proposing a narrative that is understandable and sustainable. Everyone in a position to do so is just preserving their position, from the clergy to the columnists. Even the bloggers don't really want to solve the problems, just compete with each other for the best metaphors. I would propose that maybe it's time for the "grand debate" to commence. If established media and the internet worked together to open up a grand dialogue about what it is exactly that all of us fundamentally want, and if millions participate in this dialogue, then maybe some politicians would have some cues to form a new narrative. Of course any political movement has to appease the fears of the upper classes that most of their money will be appropriated. I think they'll accept some appropriation if it's done equitably and they are guaranteed that it will stabilize the system and leave them where they are relative to everyone else. And everyone would have to patient while the demogogues on both sides try to hijack the debate. I think it's high time for everyone to take advantage of the technology and participate in a grand debate about who we are really. Then some political movement could be formed to find a way to pay the old bills and set about satisfying the new set of expectations that most of us agree on. Just waiting for another FDR to impose a solution, or for some other political figure with an intuitive genius for what we want is a hierarchical solution. I can't imagine that anyone can take on this responsability themselves, the problems are daunting and complex. The era of "great" leaders is over. The simple solutions don't work for anyone except the far left or right, and the middle for the moment are cut out of the debate. They need to post blogs and write to newspapers and politicians need to read what they're writing. My experience in life is that everyone is generally content as long as they have a chance to be heard. Most of us don't really demand obediance and submission to our wills (those who do are a strange lot but we do have to reckon with them somehow) but just want a forum and a set of rules by which everyone has their say. That's what ancient Athens came up with. Worked for a while. At the moment it seems to be passively accepted that technology is the new means to dominate and control society - but that's the old way of thinking adapting to the new technology - I suggest that technology is a means to decentralize the process of creating the grand "narrative." Obviously still there will be organisms to finalize and implement decisions but I think we could deflate the general anxiety by turning over the narrative to everyone instead of letting those with the megaphones or the broadband connections scream at each other. All those with internet connections need to start using it to voice their opinions and not let the extremeists dominate the content. We desperately need middle-of-the-road opinions. Also millions need to start writing so they'll know what they'll lose if the internet ever becomes "tiered" and those with the money dominate the access and content. Of course all this devolves to irrelevance in the face of dwindling energy supplies. A solution in this area has to be top-down, the specialists need to be given the resources to find some solution. Why this "clear and present" problem continues to be obscured by mythology and racism instead of being addrssed as a scientific dilemna to be resolved with specialist knowledge and engineering.is the key to the current grim state of our culture. This site has been excellent for creating a vocabulary to discuss the problems - Thanks for that! 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