30 June 2006

Country Briefing - Iraq: Battle for control

By Tim Ripley JDW Correspondent
London

According to the most recent US Department of Defense (DoD) status report, Iraq's new government boasts some 263,000 trained armed forces, security and police personnel, however, it must still rely on US and other coalition forces to provide vital support in the fight against insurgents, as illustrated by the US air strike that killed Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in June.

Now that these forces are approaching their required personnel strengths, attention is focused on improving their specialist and logistical capabilities, as well as developing effective institutions to allow Iraq's new government to exercise political and operational control over them. As sectarian violence escalates, creating security forces that can attract support from Iraq's three main religious and ethnic communities - Kurdish, Shia and Sunni - is becoming increasingly urgent.

Security transition

Initially tactical control of all Iraqi security forces rested with US and coalition forces, but a process of gradual transfer of responsibility for specific regions or sections of the 'battlespace' from coalition to Iraq control has gathered pace over the last year.

The process involves four stages. The first is 'partnership' at a tactical level: US-led coalition forces are responsible for security within their designated battlespace. The next stage is giving Iraqi Army units the lead in particular sections of battlespace, but still under overall coalition command. Iraqis will then take control of security on a province-wide basis and finally, Iraq will gain security self-reliance on a national basis.

This process is at the heart of the US and UK governments' 'exit strategy' for Iraq and it aims to eventually allow the withdrawal of their combat forces from the country.

By May the US DoD reported that two Iraqi Army divisions, 16 brigades and 63 army and INP battalions had assumed 'lead' responsibility for security in their respective 'battlespace', representing 77,700 km2 of territory. Iraqi forces had also taken over 34 forward operating bases from coalition troops.

Coalition troops started their withdrawal from the southern province of Muthanna on 22 June within days of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's announcement that Iraqi forces would take over security there.

Independent assessments of Washington's and London's 'exit strategy' paint a less positive picture than that generated by senior US and UK politicians who are increasingly desperate to try to flag up some sort of 'success' from Iraq. The continuing daily death toll is perhaps the clearest sign that the expansion of Iraq's local security forces is not yet making a significant difference in the battle to defeat the insurgency and ending sectarian violence.

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