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July 05, 2006

Holy crap, Greg Mankiw linked to me!

It wasn't in the nicest of contexts -- he was complaining about how sad it was that a talented person like Terrence would use his talents to become a professional gambler instead of doing something with more "social value" --  but I am still pretty blown away that the author of several of my economics textbooks and the former chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors took the time to read my blog much less link to it.

Here's his post: Why I Hate Gambling

Go Thomas!!! and some nice articles about Bill

One of our former roommates in Costa Rica, Thomas Koo, is doing well in event 9 of the World Series of Poker, the $5000 buy-in No Limit Hold'em tournament.  It's day 2 and he's currently 15th in chips.  See Card Player's chip counts here, and the live updates log here.  Terrence is spending today refreshing like crazy. :)

Meanwhile, articles about Bill's win yesterday are beginning to appear:

Terrence isn't planning to play in any more events this week until the $2500 buy-in No Limit Hold'em tournament on Friday or the $1000 No Limit Hold'em rebuy tournament on Saturday. 

Update 5:05 PM: Thomas just busted out in 32nd place for a prize of $10,232. :(

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Interview with Terrence on PokerWorks

PokerWorks has published a nice interview with Terrence here.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Congratulations to Bill Chen for winning the World Series of Poker $3000 buy-in Limit Hold'em tournament!!!

We just got home from the celebratory dessert and champagne.  Terrence's friend Bill Chen (the one who visited Costa Rica for New Year's Eve) won event 7 of the World Series of Poker tonight, the $3000 buy-in Limit Hold'em tournament, for a prize of $343,618 and a shiny gold WSOP champion bracelet.

Bill is also the co-author (with Jerrod Ankenman) of the upcoming book The Mathematics of Poker.  It hasn't been released yet but you can pre-order it on Amazon.

(Speaking of pre-ordering, Bill told a funny story over dinner about that.  He noticed that his book showed up on Amazon available to be pre-ordered before they'd even finished writing it.  So he ordered a copy.  He was hoping they'd send it to him from the future and he wouldn't have to write it. :))

You can read the story of Bill's win on his blog: Bill and Matt.

Congrats, Bill!!!

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

July 04, 2006

Event 9 of the World Series of Poker: $5000 buy-in No Limit Hold'em tournament

Terrence skipped event 8 yesterday and is playing in today's event, a $5000 buy-in no-limit hold'em tournament.  Card Player has chip counts for some players here and live updates here, but so far they're not reporting Terrence's chip count.

Good luck, Terrence!

Update: Terrence busted just before the dinner break again.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

July 03, 2006

What's the fun of having a blog if you can't make obscure Buffy references in your post titles?

But what's the fun of making obscure Buffy references in your post titles if no one (apparently) gets them?

Bah, I'm disappointed in y'all.

Miles to go... Little Miss Muffet counting down from 7-3-0...

I'm 28 now... OMG LATE TWENTIES!!!!!

...so old...

July 02, 2006

E-mail was down for a few days, should be back up now

I managed to screw up my e-mail while I was I was moving my domain, but I think I have fixed it now.  So if you have sent me an e-mail over the past few days please send it again, to mail AT jacquelinepassey DOT com.  If that doesn't work and it's urgent you might want to try jacqueline.passey AT gmail DOT com.

Event 7 of the World Series of Poker: $3000 buy-in Limit Hold'em Tournament

Apparently Terrence likes limit hold'em tournaments after all, if the buy-in is big enough. :)

I woke up late (was up all night reading my new books) and just checked CardPlayer's chip counts and they're currently showing him at 43rd in chips.  So not spectacular but he's still in there.

I have mixed feelings about whether y'all should wish him luck today or not -- tomorrow is my birthday and I want him to spend it with me!  :)  But I suppose going deep in an event with a first prize of about half a million dollars (if the estimates I've heard are correct) is an acceptible excuse to postpone your girlfriend's birthday celebration... so go ahead and wish him luck. :)

Terrence is very very very good at limit hold'em -- heads up limit hold'em is where he makes the vast majority of his money -- but he mostly plays ring games, and tournaments are different, and I don't know enough about poker to know how well his skills should translate to the tournament environment.

Update: He busted just before the dinner break. :(  But I get my boyfriend for my birthday, yay!

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Bought some new books on gambling and Las Vegas

I went book shopping yesterday, to the Gambler's Book Shop and a local Borders.  I bought:

The Video Poker Edge: How to Play Smart and Bet Right by Linda Boyd.  I first found out about this book after the author sent me an e-mail (I'd asked some questions on an e-mail list she was on).  It gets good reviews on Amazon and is recommended by VPFree as well.

Sex, Lies, And Video Poker: An Erotic Novel About Gambling by video poker expert Bob Dancer.  I'm really not sure if I want to get my gambling information and erotica from the same author, but curiousity got the better of me, so I bought it.  I enjoyed his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker and know he can at least write well, so let's see how he does smut.  The back cover asks me, "Is a Royal Flush Better than Sex?"  Personally I'd have to say it depends on the denomination you're playing and whether it is for max coin or not. :)

Since I like his book Video Poker: Optimum Play, I also bought a bunch of Dan Paymar's video poker strategy cue cards.  I've been copying strategies off the internet onto index cards but Paymar's pre-made cards are far more convenient.  They're laminated and pocket-sized.  I just need to learn how to decipher his codes. 

Las Vegas: The Best of Glitter City by Don and Betty Martin.  I already have a bunch of general Vegas guidebooks but I still like collecting the ones that purport to tell me where to find the "best of" everything.  I don't like to rely on these sorts of books individually but instead prefer to compare them to each other and see what they all agree is the "best".

Vegas Confidential: Norm Clarke! Sin City's Ace Insider 1,000 Naked Truths by Norm Clarke.  It was cheap and looks interesting.  Includes some more "best of" lists.

Not a book about gambling or Vegas, but I also saw and bought Blogosphere : Best of Blogs by Peter Kuhns & Adrienne Crew.  It's a book of recommendations and reviews of blogs.  Yes, I know that any book about the internet is already out of date by the time it's printed but the copyright date is this year so I figure it's probably still useful and interesting.

Books mentioned in this post and their prices on Amazon:

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

July 01, 2006

We have a bad first gambling week in Las Vegas

Sunday: We lose $6400 at video poker
Monday: We lose $400 at video poker
Tuesday: Terrence enters a $1500 tournament and busts before making the money
Wednesday: Terrence enters a $1500 tournament and busts before making the money
Thursday: day off
Friday: Terrence enters a $2500 tournament and just barely makes the money, for a profit of only $163 after taxes were withheld
Saturday: Terrence enters a $2000 tournament and busts before making the money.

He also lost a few hundred the other night playing live poker (nothing serious, he and some friends were just screwing around and playing crazy in a low-limit game for fun).

So… we lost about $12,000 in our first gambling week in Las Vegas. :( Oh well. Terrence has had worse weeks.

We're staying home and playing online tonight instead. :)

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Event 6 of the World Series of Poker: $2000 buy-in No Limit Hold'em tournament

Terrence is playing in event 6 of the WSOP today, a $2000 buy-in no-limit hold'em tournament.  CardPlayer has chip counts of some of the more famous players here and a live updates log here, but like yesterday they probably won't mention Terrence unless he builds up a really big stack.

CardPlayer reports that there are "roughly 1720 players, shooting for a place in the WSOP record books."  If I remember how to estimate tournament prizes correctly I think that means the total prize pool will be about $3 million and first place might take home close to a million dollars or so.... the actual prize structure won't be announced until later, though.

Wish Terrence luck!!!

Update 3:00 PM: He's out.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

June 30, 2006

Terrence makes the money and then busts :(

Terrence just called.  He did make the money in event 5 (a prize of $3790, so minus the $2500 buy-in a $1290 profit) but then he was busted out.  I'm sure he'll post details on his blog later.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Poker media vs. political media

Terrence warned me over dinner not to take the chip counts on the Card Player website too seriously tonight as I sit at home refreshing the page because they aren't always accurate or very recent.  He said as an analogy, imagine if the news media reported election results by only asking a few people in a few districts who they voted for.

I told him that *IS* how the news media reports election results in the US, it's called exit polling.  That's why we initially thought Kerry was winning on election day.

Terrence was shocked.

Terrence made it to the dinner break in WSOP event 5 with lots of chips!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Terrence made it to the dinner break with lots of chips. He had 41,000 before the break. CardPlayer has finally decided that he is important enough to include in their chips count page, so if you want you can join me in obsessive-compulsively reloading it all night look here.

That $28,000 number that is showing right now is probably old, though, since that was the same number showing at 6:30 a little before dinner (at the time they first showed that number he was tied for 6th highest in chips), and then he won another pot bringing him to $41,000 on the last hand before dinner. So I don't think that $28,000 is up to date unless he somehow lost exactly the same amount back right after dinner as he won just before dinner.

This is the first time I've been at a tournament with Terrence where he's made it to the dinner break. He tells me that there's a long way to go (he and David estimate that there are 130 or 140 players left, and the top 90 win prizes) and I shouldn't get too worked up about it but I am still so excited!!!!!!!!!!!!

See!  See what happens when a few of you take the time to leave a comment wishing him luck!  The rest of you had better get with the program. :)

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Blog move to new server and Movable Type in progress

I've purchased hosting services from AMRAY -- a Canadian company that also hosts online casinos so I should be safe hosting an online gambling affiliate blog there -- and a copy of Movable Type, which is similar to what I'm using now (TypePad) except that it's self-hosted and more powerful.  I'm not very technically inclined and don't want to fuck things up trying to install it myself so I've also purchased their commercial installation service.  Unfortunately all commercial installations are on hold right now until after version 3.3 comes out next week, so I'm not sure when I'll be ready to actually make the move and go live with the new blogs.  Sometime in July, I hope.

Once everything is ready to go I'll be importing the content from this blog and my gambling blog into new Movable Type blogs on the new server.  I'll also have a new URL -- www.jacquelinepassey.com instead of jacquelinepassey.blogs.com.  I'll let you know when it's time to make the change to your bookmarks, blogrolls, and RSS feed subscriptions.

At the same time I'll be rolling out a few new blogs based your feedback about which topics y'all are interested in.  Those of you who only want to read about politics, sci-fi, and/or sex can visit or subscribe to just the politics, sci-fi, and sex blogs and not read the gambling, travel, etc.  Those of you who only want to read about gambling and travel can visit or subscribe to the gambling and travel blogs and not read about politics, sci-fi, etc.  Not all of these niche blogs will be updated very frequently (some once a week or less) but you can subscribe to the RSS feeds for the blogs you're interested in so you don't have to check every day or week.  I expect to have both regular RSS and e-mail subscriptions available for each blog.

So those of you who originally started reading this blog back when I was more politically active and are annoyed now the that politics:other content ratio has dropped will soon be able to read just the political blog and quit your bitching. :)

A copy of everything will be posted to my main blog for those of you who want to read everything, and sometimes posts that are relevant to more than one niche blog will be cross-posted to one of my other niche blogs as well.  I'll enable comments and trackbacks on only one version of the post (on the blog most relevant to the post's subject matter), though, to try and keep all conversation regarding the post in one place.

For a long time I've been ignoring the conventional wisdom that one of the keys to having a successful blog is focusing on a niche.  Instead I've been writing about anything and everything that I'm interested in at the moment.  Although it's been working out pretty well for me (and obviously most of my current readers like this format or you wouldn't be here) I have to wonder, if I had a more focused blog, would I get more traffic and links and make more money? 

I think this new setup will provide the best of both worlds:  Niche blogs, for those who are interested in only those topics, and with the potential to make more money through more focused advertising and affiliate programs, and my big main blog that has a copy of everything for people who like to read all of it. 

There are a few drawbacks -- it does take an extra couple of minutes a day to do the cross-posting, the comments will be spread out across multiple blogs (but perhaps Movable Type offers RSS feeds for comments?), and I might get penalized by Google for having the same content posted in two places (anyone know how serious this is?).  But I think in the end it will work out to be an improvement.  Also, having multiple blogs to maintain will hopefully motivate me to write more content every day, so those of you who just like reading my stuff will have more of me to read.

Event 5 of the World Series of Poker: $2500 buy-in short-handed No-Limit Hold'em tournament

Terrence skipped event 4 yesterday (he doesn't like limit hold'em tournaments) but is playing in event 5 today, a $2500 buy-in short-handed No-Limit Hold'em tournament.  Short handed means that there will only be 6 players to a table.  This isn't his favorite type of tournament either, but he was able to buy in for a discount by using his "W$" on PokerStars, so he's playing in it anyway.

Wish him luck!!!

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

The video poker gods hate us (especially Terrence)

Monday night Terrence and I had dinner at a nearby casino with a few people he knows from BARGE, including two local video poker pros, “Fick” and “Nick”. Nick seems like a normal guy but Fick is a little weird. For example, his reaction upon the arrival of my dinner (I’d ordered a pound of peel-and-eat shrimp) to the table was, “Holy crap, Jacqueline! Did shrimp kill your family??” (Hee! Days later and that still makes me giggle.)

Dinner was on Fick and Nick (who had lots of comps), but they had an ulterior motive for taking us out. They’d gotten their hands on several good free play, bonus, and point multiplier coupons for this casino (I’m not supposed to say which one, sorry) that combined gave a very nice positive expectation on video poker. The problem was, these coupons were only one per person, and to maximize the return on the coupons they needed to be used by *new* slot club players. So they’d taken us out to dinner because they needed some more fresh warm bodies to play video poker for them with their money and coupons. In exchange we got dinner plus whatever comps points we earned while playing for them.

Since I’m interested in this sort of thing anyway I thought helping them sound like fun, but Terrence was less enthused – his opportunity costs are quite high so it isn’t worth it for him to do this sort of thing, plus he was still feeling a bit sick of video poker after the debacle on Sunday. But they managed to talk him into it by assuring him that most people (we weren’t the first people they’d done this with) finished in less than 20 minutes.

The whole process was somewhat complicated, and included a couple of $10 free play coupons with different requirements, a $250 bonus on getting 4-of-a-kind, and 4 times points for the day. The time consuming part was getting a 4-of-a-kind. Our bad video poker luck continued and we just couldn’t hit it! We went through the first $1000 Fick and Nick gave us fairly quickly and they had to keep reloading us with more money. Long after everyone else in our dinner group had made their 4-of-a-kinds and completed the whole promotion process Terrence and I were still playing. Finally I made mine but poor Terrence was stuck playing for quite a while longer, with the uncooperative video poker machine taking nearly as much verbal and physical abuse as the one at Caesars Palace the day before.

After he’d been playing for almost two hours and had set a new record for taking the longest out of all the people Fick and Nick have put through this promotion he FINALLY got a 4-of-a-kind. He pushed the change button and the change girl arrived and took his coupon to go process his bonus. But instead of the change girl some sort of supervisor returned. He told Terrence that these coupons were only mailed to local addresses and since Terrence’s address and ID were Canadian he didn’t qualify for the bonus. So poor Terrence had spent a good chunk of his evening playing a game he didn’t like, lost a bunch of his friends’ money, and then they didn’t even get the payoff that was the point of this whole endeavor.

Meanwhile, on top of losing some of Fick and Nick’s money while playing the promotion for them I’d also lost another $400 of Terrence’s money by playing some more after I’d finished the promotion – we wanted to take full advantage of the points multiplier coupon, which was only good for one day, so Terrence bankrolled me to keep playing while he did. (Terrence had to play so long to get his 4-of-a-kind that he’d already maxed out the number of points he could earn with the points multiplier coupon.)

Terrence has grown to really hate video poker. :) But at least we have over $300 in comps at that casino now.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

June 29, 2006

Addendum to Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 2: Diamond in a Day strategy

"CLCJim" wrote an excellent response to my Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 2: Diamond in a Day strategy post about computing expected losses, but he posted it in the members-only Las Vegas Advisor comps forum.  I had considered including some background info on computing expected values, how video poker works, and the infrequent royal flushes issue in my DIAD strategy post but I felt that it was too long already (and I was already behind schedule on when I wanted to have it finished and posted) so I decided to save talking about those issues for a future post.  Well, after reading Jim's forum post I can't see how I could improve upon what he wrote, so with his permission I am reposting it here:

Hi Jacqueline! I read each of the 3 posts you've written so far, and I think they're all very well done.

I didn't see any errors, but I'd like to offer a few comments for your consideration regarding the "expected losses" you wrote about in Part 2: Diamond in a Day Strategy. You used each video poker game's expected long-term return (99.7% for NSUD, and 99.5% for Jacks or Better) to calculate expected losses. That may not be the most realistic thing to do. Let's take a look at a few examples.

Low-Risk Strategy - 5c 50-play JOB at Laughlin
To achieve $18,000 coin-in, you play 1,440 "sets," or "deals," of 50 hands each, or 72,000 total hands. Since a royal flush occurs, on average, every 40,390 hands in JOB, you have a reasonable expectation of hitting one or two royal flushes. Therefore, the full game return (99.5% to one decimal place) is probably a realistic number to use to calculate expected loss.
Expected loss @ 99.5% return: $90

Medium-Risk Strategy - 25c 10-play NSUD at Caesars Palace
To achieve $18,000 coin-in, you play 1,440 deals of 10 hands each, or 14,400 total hands. Given that a royal flush occurs, on average, every 43,456 hands in NSUD, chances are you won't hit a royal flush. Since the royal flush accounts for 1.84% of the total game return in NSUD, you're really playing a 97.9% game, not a 99.7% game.
Expected loss @ 99.7% return: $54
Expected loss @ 97.9% return: $378 (more realistic)
The same thing applies to 25c 10-play JOB at Caesars. In this case, the royal flush accounts for 1.98% of the total return, so without it you're playing a 97.5% game.
Expected loss @ 99.5% return: $90
Expected loss @ 97.5% return: $450 (more realistic)

High-Risk Strategy - Higher Denominations
The risk of loss increases again. Let's take just one possibility. Let's say you play $5 5-play JOB, at $125 per deal. To achieve $18,000 coin-in, you play just 144 deals, or 720 total hands. In this case, you're very unlikely to see not only a royal flush, but also a straight flush, which occurs, on average, every 9,148 hands in JOB, and contributes 0.55% to the total return. So, you're now playing a 97.0% game. And, with just a little bad luck, you might not even see 4-of-a-kind, which occurs, on average, every 423 hands, and contributes a whopping 5.91% to the game's expected return. If this unfortunate occurence should befall you, you're playing a 91.1% game.
Expected loss @ 99.5% return: $90
Expected loss @ 97.0% return: $540 (more realistic)
Expected loss @ 91.1% return: $1,602 (very possible)

Add to these expected loss figures the potential effect of variance. If variance isn't on your side the day you go for DIAD, you could lose even more -- possibly, a lot more.

I suspect that you may be aware of all of this, and just don't want to get too technical on your blog. If so, I apologize for wasting your time. If not, feel free to use any part of it that's helpful.

Again, well done. I'm looking forward to your future installments.

Terrence and I plan for me to play a lot of video poker for comps while we're in Vegas this summer so personally we just care about long-term expectation.  But if you only plan to play a little, just enough to get Diamond status and no more, then you should read Jim's post above and consider it carefully when deciding what sort of strategy you want to use.

Cross-posted to my gambling blog, go there for comments and trackbacks.

Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 3: The $6400 parking pass

Sunday afternoon we went to the Rio and got our Total Rewards cards, then Terrence gave me $4000 in cash (as he put it, it was time for me to "gamble away [his] money like a proper Vegas girlfriend") and off we went to Caesar’s Palace.  By then he was pretty enthused about getting the Diamond cards because he'd already been hassled by the Rio valet about using the valet parking without having a room key or Diamond card.  Since the WSOP is at the Rio, and it's the nearest secure garage to where we're staying, he plans to use the Rio parking a lot this summer and thus priority parking there will be a big time- and hassle-saving benefit for him.

After wandering around for a bit we finally located the $5 slots and video poker area in the Palace casino and found a couple of side-by-side 9/6 Jacks or Better games. (They were on machines that offered several different games to choose from, including a few different types of video poker.)

This was my first time playing with a slot club card and I forgot to put it in before I began playing! Fortunately I noticed after a couple of hands that Terrence had points accumulating on his machine and I didn’t and rectified my mistake.

We lost a lot of money right from the start. I briefly recovered, and was up a bit for a few minutes, but then lost it all back. After 10-15 minutes we’d completed about $20,000 in play (Terrence wanted to go a bit over the requirement, the “cover play” habit from his old days as an online bonus whore still strongly ingrained) for Terrence’s account and were down a couple thousand dollars. I asked him if he still wanted to do my account since we’d already lost so much. He wasn’t sure, but I really, really wanted a Diamond card and told him that the additional $100 or so in expected loss could be a birthday present, so he decided to proceed. So we switched out the cards and started playing again on my account– and we just kept losing!

Soon Terrence was on major video poker tilt – swearing, hitting the machine, and deviating from the strategy card to always go for the royal flush because at that point it was his only chance to get even. Even though it wasn’t my money I felt pretty bad about it too – I don’t want to lose Terrence’s money, or have him lose money on something that was my idea. At the same time, though, I was somewhat amused by just how incredibly BADLY we were doing. Terrence finally hit a point where he didn’t have enough left for another set of hands, and he wasn’t willing to put any more $100 bills into the machine, so he cashed out and gave me his ticket and let me finish up the wagering myself.

In the end we finished down a total of $6400 – Terrence lost about $4000 of that, and I lost about $2400. I hope there are some video poker expects out there who can calculate for us exactly how badly we did ($38,000 wagered with a 99.46% expected return on $5 5-play for maximum coins) but my guestimate is that our result was probably about two standard deviations below the mean.

We went back to the Total Rewards desk, got our Diamond cards, and then immediately went to the Diamond Lounge and pigged out on the “free” food while Terrence grumbled about losing $6400 for what basically amounts to a parking pass. We are going to try to eat back as much of that loss as possible over the next two months. :)

(Before anyone freaks out “OMG $6400!!! What are you and Terrence going to do????”, please keep in mind that Terrence plays $500/$1000 heads up limit hold’em and sometimes wins or loses that much money on a single hand. So while nobody LIKES losing $6400 it’s also not going to cause him any great hardship. We wouldn’t have played at that level in the first place if he couldn’t afford the variance.)

I was planning to post tomorrow about our experiences using the benefits of our new Diamond cards, but instead I’m going to write an interlude about another video poker experience we had this week at another casino which I’ve decided to title “The video poker gods hate us (especially Terrence).” :) Monday I’ll post part 4 in the Harrah’s Total Rewards series – by then we’ll have had a full week to take advantage of our Diamond benefits and thus I’ll be able to give a better review then anyway.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

June 28, 2006

Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 2: Diamond in a Day strategy

So Terrence and I decided that we wanted to get Diamond status in Harrah’s Total Rewards program, and thus my next task was to figure out the best way to go about obtaining it. I got a lot of help from the Las Vegas Advisor comps forum, the Casino Comps Yahoo Group, and the Harrahs Casinos Yahoo Group. I recommend all three groups to anyone interested in earning comps and benefits in the Harrahs Total Rewards system. Many of the members of those groups are very experienced comps earners who have put a lot of time and effort into figuring out how the Total Rewards system works and they are very generous about sharing their expertise.

The different levels in the Total Rewards program (Platinum, Diamond, Seven Star) are achieved by earning “tier points” through gambling. Tier points are earned at a rate of one point per $5 wagered on slots or $10 wagered on video poker. Since the expected return of a skilled video poker player is much higher than that of a slot player, the expected loss of playing video poker is lower than the expected loss of playing slots even though you have to wager twice as much.

Normally you can get Diamond status in the Total Rewards program by earning 10,000 “tier points” in a year, which would be $100,000 worth of wagering on video poker. That’s a lot of video poker! Also, none of the Harrah’s properties in Las Vegas offer video poker games with an expected return of 100% or more, so all this wagering would have to be done on a game with an expected loss. Your expected loss after wagering $100,000 on a game like 9/6 Jacks or Better video poker, if you play perfectly, is $460. For two people the combined expected loss would be $960, and since Terrence and I probably wouldn’t be playing completely perfectly our expected loss would be higher. A $1000+ expected loss for a priority parking pass, skipping lines, and free lounge/club entries and show tickets for two months is a bit steep!

Fortunately Harrah’s has a promotion called “Diamond in a Day” that rewards Diamond status for a much lower wagering requirement – 1800 points ($18,000 wagered on video poker) – as long as you do all that wagering in one day. We were willing to put in enough time to learn to play video poker well enough to follow the Wizard of Odds’ Jacks or Better simple strategy so our expected loss from doing this promotion would only be $194.40 ($18,000 wagering requirement * 2 people * 0.54% house advantage). Since we expect to get more than $200 of value out of using the Diamond benefits all summer, this seemed like a reasonable expected loss to take on.

Harrah’s has many different casinos with many different video poker gamers offered in a bunch of different denominations, so we had a lot of options of how we wanted to go about getting our $18,000 wagering accomplished. I focused on researching three of these options, which I call the “slow but ‘safe’” way, the “medium-speed and –risk” way, and the “fast and scary” way. We ultimately chose the fast and scary way for ourselves, but I’ll describe all three strategies for the benefit of those of you who also want to do this but have lower risk tolerances than ours.

Strategy 1: The slow but “safe” way

This way requires leaving town and probably takes up a whole day, but is the best way to do it if minimizing variance (and thus your risk of losing money) is your priority.

Drive or take a bus to the Harrah’s in Laughlin (about 100 miles / 2 hour drive from Las Vegas).

Play the 5 cent 50-play Jacks or Better game for maximum coins. You will be betting $12.50 per hand, so the $18,000 wagering requirement will take 1440 sets of hands to complete. Most people should be able to do this in about 3 hours. Your expected loss if you play perfectly is $82.80.

Although you are betting $12.50 per set of hands, your risk is spread across 50 hands and you are playing for a very low denomination coin. From what I have read and heard this is the least risky way to achieve Diamond in a Day status.

Strategy 2: The medium-speed and –risk way

You don’t have to leave town for this one. Caesar’s Palace has “No So Ugly Ducks” video poker machines (NSUD has a 99.7% return) from denominations of 5 cents to $5, and 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.5% return) machines from denominations of 5 cents to $100. See the VPFree page for Caesars Palace for the details and locations of these machines.

If you play the 25 cent 10-play “Not So Ugly Ducks” game for maximum coin you’re betting $12.50 per set of hands. You can probably play 500 hands an hour (experienced video poker players can play a lot faster) which means you’ll complete the $18,000 wagering requirement in about 3 hours. Your expected loss from this, if you play perfectly, is $54.

If the “Not So Ugly Ducks” machine is occupied there are a couple others that have 10-play 25 cent Jacks or Better. This will take the same amount of time but your expected loss with perfect play is $82.80.

If the 25 cent 10-play machines are all occupied you could either take twice as long and play 25 cent 5-play 9/6 Jacks or Better or take the same amount of time but increase your variance by stepping up to the 50 cent denomination 5-play machines.

Strategy 3: The fast and scary way

If you want to get your Diamond card in less than an hour of play and have more choices about where to play you’ll be playing 9/6 Jacks or Better. Your expected loss is still only $82.80 but you’ll be playing at much higher denomination and thus your variance (and possible actual losses) will be much higher.

Bally’s has $25 3- and 5-play machines. Caesar’s Palace has 5-play $2, 3- and 5-play $5, $25, and $100 3-play machines. Flamingo has $10 and $25 machines. Harrah’s has $10, $25, and $100 machines. The Rio has $10, $25, and $100 3- and 5-play machines. Unfortunately, Paris doesn’t have any good high denomination 9/6 Jacks or Better machines.

Be careful. As Terrence’s and my experience getting our Diamond cards on Sunday (which will be detailed tomorrow in “Part 3: The $6400 parking pass”) illustrates, it is very possible to lose thousands (or tens of thousands) of dollars getting your Diamond card the “fast and scary” way. So I only recommend this approach if you have a big bankroll and are in a big hurry (in other words, if you’re like Terrence :)).

Some other things to consider:

You can get 2 cards for each account, so you can have a friend play with you and finish in half the time.

It’s rumored that the denomination you play in affects the type of offers you receive, so if you can afford the variance of playing in a higher denomination it may be worth it if you could use a lot of free room offers.

Rumor has it that the points requirements for Diamond in a Day are going up on July 1st from 1800 to 3000. If that happens multiple all the expected losses and expected playing times in this post by 1.67.

Good luck! If you have any questions (or if those of you with more expertise in the Total Rewards system see any errors in this post) please leave a comment.

Tomorrow: Part 3: The $6400 parking pass

Update: Please see Addendum to Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 2: Diamond in a Day strategy for important additional information regarding the expected losses and variance of the strategies described above.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

Event 3 of the World Series of Poker: $1500 buy-in Pot Limit Hold'em tournament

Terrence is playing in event 3 of the WSOP today, a $1500 buy-in Pot Limit Hold'em tournament.  I'm told by another player who's already out (sorry to hear that, David) that there are about 1100 players in today's event and they will probably play for 10-12 hours today.

Wish Terrence luck!!!  (You guys better actually do it today, no one left a comment wishing Terrence luck yesterday and he busted out after a few hours. :))

Update 1:30 PM: Oops, he's already out. :(  Oh well. 

Update 5:30 PM: Here is Terrence's post about it.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

Terrence busted out of World Series of Poker event 2 around 3 pm

Unfortunately Terrence did not go very deep in the $1500 no-limit hold'em tournament he entered today -- he busted out around 3 PM, details here.  There's an adorable picture of him on the PokerStars Blog, though.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

June 27, 2006

Event 2 of the World Series of Poker: $1500 buy in No-Limit Hold'em tournament

Terrence is playing in event 2 of the World Series of Poker today, a $1500 buy-in No Limit Hold'em tournament.  (Event 1 was restricted to the casino employees only.)  If the rumors we've heard are true, there will probably be about 2700 players, for a total prize pool of about $4 million (1st place could thus be over a million dollars).  Please wish him luck!!! 

The schedule for the 2006 World Series of Poker is posted here.  We plan to be here for the entire tournament and Terrence will be deciding week-to-week which events he feels like entering -- he estimates that he'll probably enter a total of 15 to 20 events over the next seven weeks.

I plan to update my blog every night with news about how Terrence is doing in the tournaments.  You can also check his blog for more poker-detailed recaps.  The PokerStars blog, Card Player, and Poker Wire will probably be live-blogging the tournaments as well if you want more frequent updates.  If you know of any other places that will be live-blogging the WSOP tournaments please let me know in the comments, thanks.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 1: Overview

Harrah’s Total Rewards is the player’s club for all of Harrah’s properties, which in Las Vegas includes Bally’s, Caesars Palace, Flamingo, Harrah’s, Paris, and the Rio.

I became interested in the Total Rewards program when I first began researching comps in Las Vegas, looking to see what was available at the Rio – home of the World Series of Poker and the hotel-casino we anticipate spending the most time in and thus the place where comps would be the most useful to us. The more I read the better the program sounded. In particular, the Diamond level of Total Rewards has a number of tier benefits that I thought we would use enough to make it worth it.

Terrence is always in a hurry, so I figured the time-saving benefits would be the most helpful to him:

  • Priority valet parking, including both shorter valet waits and being able to use valet parking at times when they are so full that they are turning most regular customers away
  • Being able to use the shorter Diamond line at the cashier’s cage
  • Shorter waits at the buffets and other restaurants
  • Being able to use the health club for free, so no need to commute to another gym to work out

Personally I was more interested in the entertainment benefits:

  • Two free show tickets every month to our choice of Clint Holmes, Scintas, Jubilee, George Wallace, Bareback, or Erocktica
  • Not having to wait in line or pay the cover charge at Carnival Court, VooDoo Lounge, Club Rio, or Risque Night Club
  • Free entry into the exclusive Diamond Lounge with free food and drinks
  • If I ever needed to take a taxi somewhere, being able to walk over to the Rio and get priority taxi service would be nice too, as I discovered the other night when I tried to call a cab to pick me up at our apartment and all the cab companies told me that the wait was an hour.

There are several other tier benefits that we aren’t likely to use on this trip but might use in the future – express hotel check in, premium Diamond room upgrades, travel arrangement services, entry into slots tournaments, and 10% to 30% off various services and merchandise.

All that doesn’t even include the comps and offers we could expect to receive based on our play. From what I’ve read most people begin receiving offers in the mail in a couple of months after signing up for free or discounted rooms – so, not something we can use this time, but they could come in handy for future trips. We could also redeem any reward credits we earned for various other comps, including free meals, rooms, etc.

So it sounded like achieving Diamond status in the Total Rewards program would be a good deal for us, and thus I set out researching the best strategy for doing that. I’ll describe what I found tomorrow in part 2, “Diamond in a Day strategy”.

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

June 26, 2006

Las Vegas Comps & Coupons

One of the things I’ll be doing to entertain myself this summer while Terrence is playing in the World Series of Poker is working the Las Vegas comps and coupons system.

Comps are gifts given by casinos to reward play (or in anticipation of play) and usually include things like free meals, drinks, rooms, show tickets, club admissions, and other gifts. The more you play and the higher level you play at, the more “free” stuff you get. Some comp systems are very straightforward about how to earn and spend points, others aren’t very clear or are up to the discretion of the comps host. I’ll be figuring them out as I go along and will share with you what I learn.

There are also gazillions of coupons available for free stuff in Las Vegas, most of them two for the price of one (aka buy one get one free) meals, show tickets, room nights, etc. as well as a number of match play coupons for gambling (for example, you bet $10 of your own money and a $10 match play coupon for a total $20 bet). I’ll be coupon-hunting all summer and will let you know when and where I find good ones.

To begin, here are some great resources I’ve found for learning about comps and coupons in Las Vegas:

The Frugal Gambler and More Frugal Gambling by Jean Scott. Jean explains how to earn slot club comps by playing video poker and take advantage of various other casino promotions.

Comp City: A Guide to Free Casino Vacations by Max Rubin. Focused more on discretionary comps for table games with an emphasis on blackjack.

If you plan to spend much time in Las Vegas and would like to take advantage of comps and coupons, those three books will almost certainly save you more money than they cost.

Here are some good e-mail lists and forums:

Casino Comps Yahoo Group is an e-mail list devoted to the discussion of comps.

VPFree Yahoo Group is an e-mail list about video poker (the game of choice for many people seeking to take advantage of comps) with a lot of comps discussion as well.

Las Vegas Advisor forums are great, but to get to the good stuff (the coupons and comps forums) you have to subscribe (see below about the Pocketbook of Values should save you more than enough money to pay for the subscription). 

Here are some good coupon books to get you started:

American Casino Guide 2006 is full of hundreds of coupons for over $1000 off rooms, meals, show tickets, match play gambling, and more in Las Vegas and other casino destinations in the US. And that’s just the back 128 pages – the rest of the book contains a very helpful casino directory and gambling tips.

The Las Vegas Advisor gives you a Pocketbook of Values when you subscribe. Just one coupon -- the 50% off up to $50 coupon for the Palms (you can use it for rooms, food, the spa, etc.) – saves you enough money to pay for the subscription! Plus there are lots more coupons for two-for-one rooms, meals, show tickets, etc. as well as match play coupons and freebies.

I bought the two above myself and have already found them so chock-full of coupons that we can use that I will probably end up buying additional copies of both of them.

Here are some more that I’ve ordered but haven’t seen the contents of yet:

24-7 Magazine will send you a free copy of their Vegas Values coupon magazine upon request.

Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority will send you a free visitor information packet upon request that I’m told has some good coupons in it. The Nevada Commission of Tourism also has a free visitor package you can request.

Casino Player magazine sends a funbook with coupons for casinos in Las Vegas and elsewhere to subscribers every year.

Check back all this week for a series of posts describing our first comp-earning experience with the Harrah’s Total Rewards system:
Tuesday: Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 1: Overview
Wednesday: Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 2: Diamond in a Day strategy
Thursday: Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 3: The $6400 parking pass
Friday: Harrah’s Total Rewards Part 4: Enjoying the benefits

Cross-posted from my gambling blog, go there for comments.

June 22, 2006

Our stay at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas

Terrence and I spent our first two nights in Las Vegas at the Golden Nugget while we searched for an apartment.  (We moved into a week-to-week furnished rental with kitchenette near the Rio this morning.) 

Terrence says that the Golden Nugget is one of the best values in Las Vegas and I can certainly see why -- our room was pretty nice for only $69/night:

The bed was really comfortable. I really, really liked the vanity with the makeup mirror outside the bathroom, as well as the full-size iron and ironing board. We didn't need to use the safe (Terrence wired his money to the Rio in advance) but it was nice that it is there for people who do need one.

The staff were great -- I was especially impressed with the valets and room service. The valets really hustled -- if they saw us coming they would literally run and meet us before we even finished walking to the counter, run to get our car, and bring it back quickly with either the top down and ready for cruising (if it wasn't too hot) or with the air conditioning already cooling the car down (if it was still hot).

The graveyard room service receptionist was very friendly, perky, and attentive to detail and they always got our order exactly right. We ate in our room both mornings, the "Healthy Alternative" breakfast with a yogurt, granola, and fruit parfait, orange juice, bran muffin, skim milk, and hot tea. It was very yummy:

I would definitely stay at the Golden Nugget again and recommend it if you are coming to Las Vegas and are willing to stay downtown instead of on the Strip.

June 21, 2006

Terrence's new Porsche Boxster and our road trip to Las Vegas

We were up late doing laundry and packing Sunday night.  The laundry put up a fight, but eventually submitted:

Monday morning Terrence bought his new car, a 2006 Porsche Boxster, which the dealership described as "A pre-owned 2006 Porsche Boxster in Black with a Sand Beige leather interior and Black top. Added factory options are floor mats, automatic climate control, heated seats, sound package plus, power seat package and 18" Boxster S wheels. A perfect color combination that must be seen. This car will not last and still smells new."  He arrived at the condo with it around noon:

New car makes Terrence very happy:

Me posing with new car:

We packed up the car and took off around 2 PM. No problems at the border, traffic was light, and we arrived in Seattle around 5 PM. Terrence watched a hockey game with his friends and then joined my family and me for dinner to celebrate Father's Day and my dad's birthday. We got on the road again around 11 PM and made it to Ontario, Oregon, at 6 AM, where we got about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at a Motel 6. We got going again at noon, and arrived in Las Vegas around 11 PM last night. Our route:

The road trip was relatively uneventful.  We were literally run off the road once while I was taking a turn driving (some idiot tried to pass two trucks without looking to see if there was anyone coming and would have hit us head on at a combined 150 mph if I hadn't swerved off onto the shoulder and around him), Terrence got pulled over for speeding but the cop let him off with a warning, and a rabbit committed suicide under our wheels.  I slept through most of it.

I think the most interesting thing from the trip was the snack options at the truck stop in Ellensburg:

Mmm. Perhaps I could use this as a pizza topping... if only there was some way to bake pizza in the car!  Oh wait, there is:

This particular trip was all about getting to Las Vegas as soon as possible without crashing from sleep deprivation. We plan to take a week on the way back and sight-see more.

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