By Darren Allen
Email Darren at darren.allen@rutlandherald.com
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Summer Vacation Beckons.
Well, as hard as it is to leave all this behind, we are taking a two-week break from the daily grind to recharge before the campaign season starts to matter to regular folks. I know, I know, it's been a great thrill for insiders since, uh, since the polls closed last cycle, but for the vast majority of Vermonters, the end of August is when they start to pay close attention.
So barring the need to update you all on some issue of grand importance -- say an unexplained change in the poll numbers, a juicy scandal or two, or just an outrageous statement by a candidate or a supporter -- I will be firmly ensconsed in non-work bliss.
Not that we're going anywhere this year -- the house needs some tender loving care, and the mountains of New York and Vermont are just begging to be hiked and camped upon. And your trusty correspondent enters his fifth decade -- turning the big 4-0 in August. It's a momentous birthday, to say the least.
See you in a couple of weeks.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Close race? What close race?.
We just received a nice little packet of polling data fresh off a political consultants' printers (we will not tell you which one, naturally) and it has some very interesting information on the biggest races to hit these parts in a generation.
But before we get to the squeaker race -- and there really is only one, after all -- let's fill you in on some numbers in some not-so-tight contests.
According to a poll of 500 likely voters conducted about a week ago, 66 percent of those questioned said they intended to vote for Bernie Sanders in the race for US Senate, while 25 percent sided with Republican Richard Tarrant. Only 9 percent was undecided, the poll said.
Those numbers have changed little since November, when Bernie notched a 69 percent to Tarrant's 20 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
Turning to another lopsided race, 55 percent said they would choose incumbent Republican Gov. James Douglas in a race against Democrat Scudder Parker, who had the support of 28 percent of respondents, with 17 percent undecided. Those numbers have changed a little bit since November: Douglas scored a 58 percent, while Parker took in 22 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
Interestingly, Douglas' numbers are down slightly while Parker's are up slightly. But 27 points is a lot to make up between now and November.
In what most observers say is the hottest race around, the U.S. House contestants are still quite close, although Democrat Peter Welch is doing better than he did in November, the poll said.
Of those questioned, 45 percent said they would vote for Welch, while GOP hopeful Martha Rainville was the choice of about 38 percent, with 17 percent undecided. In November, Welch had 40 points while Rainville had, um, 40 points, with 20 percent undecided.
Indeed, while the numbers show Welch gaining ground, 7 points with 17 percent undecided is not unsurmountable, although his momentum is clearly gaining ground.
On a side note, here are some favorability ratings: 20 percent favorable for President Bush, unchanged since November; 60 percent favorables for Douglas, seven points down since the fall, although still very high for an incumbent Republican in a blue state; Bernie's faves came in at 64 percent, down from 72 in November; Tarrant's were at 22 percent, up from 11 percent in the fall; Welch had 32 percent favorables, equal to the fall; Rainville scored a 35 percent fave score, down from 40 in the Fall.
Parker's favorables came in at 17 percent, up from 12 percent in November. And, just for fun, Sen. Patrick Leahy, who is not running this cycle, has faves in the stratosphere: in July, he clocked a 71, down a point from November.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Money, money, money.
OK, let me say right off the bat that Gov. James Douglas was never a fan of the recently overturned Vermont campaign finance law that limited individual and political party contributions in state races to something like $5 bucks or so (OK, closer to $400, but you get the point.)
Still, it was only a matter of time before the state's politicians publicized that fact. Case in point, Douglas' latest e-mail funds pitch:
"Vermont law now allows individuals and businesses to give up to $2,000! Whatever you can afford will go a long way towards helping me get my message out."
Open those wallets, R-leaning readers, open them up!
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
From the 'Do As I Say' Department....
Martha Rainville yesterday took to the blogosphere and elsewhere asking her supporters for money so she could start airing a newly cut radio commercial that essentially says she -- not her Democratic opponent for the US House Peter Welch -- is the cleanest campaigner.
"No ifs, ands or excuses," is the title of the ad, in which she excoriates the influence of outside money in politics in general, and in her race in particular. She told the Associated Press that she wants to "combat the flow of Washington D.C. money into our state."
Uh, before lecturing others on the influence or propriety of outside money -- particularly that special brand that oozes our way from the nation's capital -- she should check her own ledger on file at the FEC.
Wait -- she doesn't have to. The state's Democratic Party already has, and, by their accounting, she has taken in a cool $250K from Washington-based donors.
Of course, she is facing the strong likelihood that national Dems are already planning a $600K ad blitz on behalf of Welch. Nontheless, she sort of just walked right into the state D's being able to say: "Marth Rainville Says One Thing and Does Another."
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Prog Presser.
The Progressive Party, under the direction of acting chairman Anthony Pollina, will tomorrow take to the Vermont Statehouse and introduce some 18 legislative candidates and the party's statewide standard bearers -- Martha Abbott for Auditor and Marvin Malek for Lite Guv.
At 18, it's the most candidates the party has ever had for the House; with its current six-seat caucus, the Vermont Progressive Party already is the largest third-party bloc in any state legislature anywhere in the country. Said Pollina in a statement:
"Campaigns should be about real people and real issues not bigger and bigger
donations. In fact, when it comes to issues like health care, big money is the problem, not the answer. These contribution limits were supported by the Legislature, the Governor and the citizens of Vermont, we shouldn't throw them away because the Supreme Court made the mistake of striking them down."
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
So not everyone is happy to see Lunderville come home....
The state Democratic Party and its candidate for governor Scudder Parker issued statements earlier today condeming Gov. James Douglas' choice of Neale Lunderville to be the next Transportation Secretary.
Seems they think he's unqualified for the job, what with the majority of his governmental experience tied up in getting Douglas elected and serving as Secretary of Civil and Military Affairs, a purely political post in state government designed, of course, to reward loyal political foot soldiers.
Lunderville, however, is acknowledged by most people to be bright and enthusiastic, and incredibly hard working.
To the state's Ds, however, that is of little consequence.
Parker had this to say: "This is another politically-motivated appointment. It shows a pattern that is really a problem. It's yet another example that Jim Douglas isn't putting the needs of the state ahead of politics. The Agency of Transportation is a huge and very important agency that needs someone with real qualifications and real experience at the head."
And Ian Carleton, chair of the state Dems, fired off this missive:
"I know Neale Lunderville personally and like him very much. However, the Agency of Transportation deserves a leader with far more experience dealing with Vermont's transportation needs than Lunderville can offer. And Vermont deserves better than to have a governor who, like our current president, rewards his political cronies with plum government positions regardless of their qualifications."
The governor continued to defend his choice at his weekly press conference.
Hey, there, Neale, we certainly hope the huge cut in pay and the incessant criticism is worth it!!
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Welcome back, Neale.
It was just months ago that Neale Lunderville left his post as Secretary of Civil and Military Affairs to go and drum up legislative support for Pfizer throughout southern New England.
So imagine our surprise in learning that, in about a half hour, Gov. James Douglas will announce that the affable, aggressive, young Lunderville will become the state's new transportation secretary.
The move will occur in August, when the current transportation secretary, Dawn Terrill, will step down to purchase and run a Vermont business with her husband.
According to sources close to the administration, Douglas phoned Lunderville and said he'd like to ask him a question to which the answer could not be "no."
Lunderville, you'll recall, is widely credited, along with GOP Chairman James Barnett, with getting Douglas in the governor's office in the first place.
Of course, for Lunderville, the cut in pay is probably more than made up by the chance to be in the thick of Vermont politics and policy.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Tarrant: Please don't misunderstand me.
Just got off the phone with Tim Lennon, Richard Tarrant's campaign manager, who said that the e-mail sent to supporters yesterday boasting of John McCain's appearance here this weekend was never meant to suggest that the Arizona senator was campaigning for Tarrant.
"This is clearly Martha's event," he said. "When you have somebody of McCain's stature coming to the state, you need to highlight it. The e-mail wasn't sent to the media and wasn't meant for the media, and we never meant to suggest that this was nothing more than Martha Rainville's event."
We'll keep following this story, and you can read more about it in tomorrow's papers.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
McCain to Tarrant: Get off the train!.
Sen. John McCain this weekend is bringing his straight-talk express to Vermont on behalf of Congressional candidate Martha Rainville.
But supporters of another GOP candidate for another seat -- Senate hopeful Richard Tarrant -- could be excused for thinking that the Arizona maverick is also coming to town to support their guy.
In an e-mail sent to supporters yesterday, Tarrant all-but-said McCain was here for him. "Rich Tarrant will campaign with Senator John McCain on Saturday!" the e-mail said. "Please join us: A Town Hall Meeting With Senator John McCain."
McCain's people were furious, and immediately denounced the move. "It's not fair," said Michael Dennehy, a senior strategist with Straight Talk America, McCain's organization. "He's coming to Vermont to campaign for Martha Rainville."
No word yet from the Tarrant camp; we've left a message with campaign manager Tim Lennon. We'll keep you posted.
Monday, July 17, 2006
Bernie Sanders, Democratic Candidate for Senate.
Yes, we know that the long-time Independent will maneuver out of his all-but-certain victory in the September primary for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. James Jeffords, but it was still more than a bit odd to see Sanders paperwork today at the Secretary of State's office. After all, there was a time when Sanders had, shall we say, very little nice to say about Democrats.
Today is the filing deadline for major party candidates to appear on the ballot in the primary. Sanders will take on a host of Democrats in the primary: Craig Hill, Larry Drown, Peter Moss and Louis Thabault.
On the R side of the Senate ledger, front-runner Richard Tarrant will take on Greg Parke of Rutland and Cris Ericson of Chester. Peter Diamondstone will run unoppsed for the Liberty Union nomination.
In the race for Bernie's seat in the U.S. House, Peter Welch is unopposed in the Democratic primary; and, as expected, GOP front-runner Martha Rainville faces Mark Shepard, whose campaign so far has managed to raise less than $70,000. Jane Newton is unopposed in the Liberty Union contest.
For governor, GOP incumbent James Douglas faces no primary opposition, and neither do Democrat Scudder Parker and Liberty Union candidate Bob Skold.
In the race for Lite Guv, things are getting a little interesting. Just moments ago, Dr. Marvin Malek of Barre filed as a Prog. GOP incumbent Brian Dubie is unoppsed in the primary; and, as expected, Matt Dunne and John Tracy are going to square off for the Democratic nomination. Liberty Union candidate Mary Alice "Mal" Herbert is unopposed.
Treasurer Jeb Spaulding, a Democrat, is unoppsed in the primary; no one else has filed to take him on.
In the AG's race, incumbent Bill Sorrell faces no primary opposition; two Rs, Karen Kerin and Dennis Carver, are battling it out in September.
For Secretary of State, incumbent Deb Markowitz will not face any competition in the Democratic primary; Republican Cheryl Moomey is the only R in the race, and Boots Wardinski will make an unopposed run for the Liberty Union nod.
Auditor of Accounts Randy Brock, faces no Republican primary competition in the quest to keep his job. Democrat Thomas M. Salmon and Progressive Martha Abbott are also in the race. Jerry Levy is the Liberty Union candidate.
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