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  #1  
Old 05-07-2006, 11:21 AM
miju miju is offline
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Default Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

What do people here think the current attitude is towards property from joe public?

I've been talking to a few people and am kinda getting mixed results , so i decided to start a poll which is here which is kinda giving up some suprising results (though only 61 people have answered the question so far)

I own property and am bullish - 21.31%
I own a property and am bearish - 26.23%
I do not own property and am bullish - 13.11%
I do not own property and am bearish - 39.34% (suppose this is the most interesting as IMHO it's FTB's who have the "power" in the property market as if they stop buying the whole thing practically stalls as people can't "trade up" )

what do you all think?
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  #2  
Old 05-07-2006, 11:33 AM
jammacjam jammacjam is offline
 
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

I think its changing; a few months ago you were a crackpot if you suggested a crash where now people are beginning to see it as a possibility. The age I am a few of my friends are FTB and I am increasingly hearing them thinking they will hold off or buying with a consideration of potential falls in value which wouldn’t have even been a consideration a year ago. There is a huge difference in the media coverage particularly the Independent and listening to Newstalk I have heard a good few commentators over the past few weeks suggesting the possibility of a crash. I think there is an increasing amount of fear and uncertainty.
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  #3  
Old 05-07-2006, 12:00 PM
CGorman CGorman is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

I've just pushed the latter option up to 40%.

I know several people in their mid-40's (mostly relatives) who have owned their own home outright for the past few years and have steadily started buying second, third, fourth and in one case dozenth homes as investment properties since 1995/2000. They have done very well - but all of them have stopped investing any more in Irish property. IMHO they typify the sterotype of middle aged average married couples buying investment property; and the singular sentiment from them is very bearish. They are now putting money into Northern Rock, Rabodirect and Latvian commercial property rather than Irish property.

Now to be fair, that's only anecdotal evidence i've witnessed - but if it is happening on a national scale - and I am certain it is - then the days of rampant capital appreciation are finally over.
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  #4  
Old 05-07-2006, 12:23 PM
2Pack 2Pack is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CGorman
I've just pushed the latter option up to 40%.

I know several people in their mid-40's (mostly relatives) who have owned their own home outright for the past few years and have steadily started buying second, third, fourth and in one case dozenth homes as investment properties since 1995/2000.
and those who invested before 2000 will be fine, probably those who invested before 2002 even. No negative equity for them . 10 months rental income covers mortgage pretty much . Sensible investing in other words.
Quote:
Now to be fair, that's only anecdotal evidence i've witnessed - but if it is happening on a national scale - and I am certain it is - then the days of rampant capital appreciation are finally over.
The "ladder" and "investment" psychosis had to stop some time. I hope its now rather than next year when the large flush of SSIA money comes in.

I must start me How Many Irish Property Economists Does it Take To thread
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  #5  
Old 05-07-2006, 12:45 PM
soma soma is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

My mother (60s), would be someone who would have subscribed to the 'Irish property will go up forever and ever amen' school of thought.

However during a phone conversation on monday she came out with "oh did you hear that they are saying that the house prices arent going to go up anymore..". This was bascially her take-away point from those statements made by the auctioneers associations earlier this week.

So who knows, this could be the week we can look back at and pinpoint where public sentiment finally began to turn. Of course it could also be a false dawn for the (IMO) inevitable downturn/recession.

One more thing - I think the bulls are very lucky that the odds on an ECB interest rate hike tomorrow are very slim. The knock-on effect to public confidence caused by the EA comments plus an unexpected ECB rate hike in the same week would be very interesting to see indeed.
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  #6  
Old 05-07-2006, 12:56 PM
phoenix_n phoenix_n is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Phoned up about a house across from me (victorian terrace northside). Price 600 and no offers yet. Earlier this year this would have sold for 650-700 . Could be something wrong with the house but was surprised that had no offers on it yet. Estate agent seemed to give the impression that the ruse is up.

High intensity apartment developments are probably at risk.

As regards others- Those that made money and traded up are still paying the same mortgages as before. A price drop just means that on paper their gain has dropped but still paying the same in mortgages.
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  #7  
Old 05-07-2006, 01:43 PM
Duplex Duplex is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

The PRTB has even less of a clue of whats going on. The statistics they have on the private rented sector are laughable.

http://irish-property-bubble.blogspot.com/
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  #8  
Old 05-07-2006, 01:44 PM
gocall01 gocall01 is offline
 
Location: Bandon, Co.Cork.
Posts: 40
Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Agree that it appears there is finally a topping off actually happening.
Whether it will be a crash or soft landing is anyones guess.
I bought a house about 2 years ago in Co. Cork for ~ 300k.
There are 2 houses in the same estate going for ~490k now (stamp duty to be added).
They have been on the market for about 3 & 5 mths respectively.
These houses would have been snapped up this time last year so it does appear to be slowing.
FTBs, SSIAs and a budget from the government reducing stamp duty may soften a property crash but...
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  #9  
Old 05-07-2006, 02:45 PM
redo redo is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

This autumns' selling season will be very interesting. There could be panic buying from Second Time Buyers (STB) when they start to hear the there is a slowdown in the market. Many of these people, like FTB of the last couple of years, will feel pressurised to trade up earlier as they think it will be harder for them to sell their house which FTB normally target. Plus with interest rates on the way up, there will be further pressure to do it now rather than later. Many of them now, I suspect, are gearing up to sell there houses at the start of September. They know if they do not trade up now, they never will be able to in the near future.

Alas, I think it will be too late for them. FTB's out there can really pick and choose now. In some areas of Lucan there are around 15 houses for sale in the same estate. Supply-wise, FTB's have never had it better. The only thing wrong with the market fundamentals at this point in time is the price of them. They are over priced. There is too much supply and it has to drive the price down. Again, evidence has been produced this week about vendors dropping their prices to stimulate demand. What is very interesting about this evidence (thus far), is that it appears to be eminating from higher priced properties, which noted highest prices inflation in the last 12 months. What we can extrapolate from this is that people wishing to trade up from the first rung of the property ladder cannot do so. FTB's are looking for something different, dare I say, nicer, than the homogenuis high density housing developments that where slapped up over the last couple years. With the supply levels out there now, If I was spending over 1/3 million on a property, I'd make sure I got the best I could.


http://www.dng.ie/pdf/quarter%201%202006.pdf
http://www.sherryfitz.ie/sf2003.exe?...&articleid=316

PS
There is a significant increase of investment properties coming on to the market too. One can easily spot them on myhome.ie. They will have an empty look about them. Beds with no linen, no decor to speak of, etc.
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  #10  
Old 05-07-2006, 02:50 PM
2Pack 2Pack is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by redo
One can easily spot them on myhome.ie. They will have an empty look about them. No decor to speak of, etc.


Magnolia paint and no pictures = Rented
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  #11  
Old 05-07-2006, 03:03 PM
coinfused coinfused is offline
 
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

we're FTB's and this week we've had 3 ea's calling US about properties in the 360-381 market- unheard of as we've been browsing for about 2 years and actively looking to buy since Feb. After losing 5 properties to the second stamp duty bracket we now have a choice of 3 more or less, there was another proprty with amv of 325 and it looks like we'll be getting it for 317 if we want it. We're in a large town just outside the Dublin limits, commuter belt, prices rose by 90k in 18 months on an average 3 bed. Now we don't know whether to take advantage of the wobble (the higher priced houses would previously have gone for 381-400, the lower one around 350) or hold off and see them drop further- but they're definitely dropping as is demand. We viewed last night and said we didnt like it and ea practically held us hostage trying to get us to look at other properties.
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  #12  
Old 05-07-2006, 03:16 PM
Howitzer Howitzer is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by coinfused
.... We viewed last night and said we didnt like it and ea practically held us hostage trying to get us to look at other properties.

Were you actively looking last Summer, specifically July/August? This could be just the natural Summer slow down.

I have no intention of buying till interest rates near their top point, no matter how long that takes or what state the market is in in the interim.
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  #13  
Old 05-07-2006, 03:37 PM
Remix Remix is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

What awaits us towards the end of the year after the summer slowdown? - looks like a winter of discontent as far as higher interest rates are concerned.

Raises a question about 100% mortgages. Will the banks allow the volume of these products to continue accelerating ?

Anyone with one of these products starts in negative equity and quite possibly descends further into negative equity going forward.
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  #14  
Old 05-07-2006, 03:41 PM
SteelBlue05 SteelBlue05 is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by miju
What do people here think the current attitude is towards property from joe public?

I've been talking to a few people and am kinda getting mixed results , so i decided to start a poll which is here which is kinda giving up some suprising results (though only 61 people have answered the question so far)

I own property and am bullish - 21.31%
I own a property and am bearish - 26.23%
I do not own property and am bullish - 13.11%
I do not own property and am bearish - 39.34% (suppose this is the most interesting as IMHO it's FTB's who have the "power" in the property market as if they stop buying the whole thing practically stalls as people can't "trade up" )

what do you all think?

How about...
I own property and I dont care-ish....
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  #15  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:04 PM
ubiquitous ubiquitous is offline
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Posts: 1,330
Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duplex
The PRTB has even less of a clue of whats going on. The statistics they have on the private rented sector are laughable.



In what way? I think you are missing the point that the PRTB are merely recording registrations of rented properties. Their figures make no reference to, or assessment of, the numbers of unregistered rented properties.

It is well-recognised (notably by the government itself) that the vast majority of landlords have failed to register with the PRTB. A special measure to force landlords to do so, on pain of losing tax relief on mortgage interest, was therefore included in the recent finance act.

On this basis, the following conclusions on your weblog are naive, to say the least. Hopefully the remainder of your blog is more rigorous...

Quote:
http://irish-property-bubble.blogspot.com/

At the end of 2005, the number of registrations with the PRTB was 83,983 and this was in respect of 53,070 landlords and 150,518 tenants. At 3 March 2006, the number of registrations with the PRTB was 88,593 and this was in respect of 55,685 landlords and 160,251 tenants.

So, as far as the government is concerned, out of an Irish population of 4,200,000, only 160,000 are private sector tenants. Only 88,593 private sector rental properties exist in the state, about 7-8% of the housing stock. When you consider that agents believe that investors purchase roughly 40% of new build output, (running at 80,000 units currently) the disparity between the PRTB’s figures and the probable actuality is remarkable.
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  #16  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:09 PM
2Pack 2Pack is offline
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Default My 2Band Theory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by coinfused
we're FTB's and this week we've had 3 ea's calling US about properties in the 360-381 market- unheard of as we've been browsing for
about 2 years and actively looking to buy since Feb.
OOOOOH thats unheard in recent years . How long had they your number befoere they deigned to ring you ????
Quote:
We're in a large town just outside the Dublin limits, commuter belt, prices rose by 90k in 18 months on an average 3 bed. Now we don't know whether to take advantage of the wobble (the higher priced houses would previously have gone for 381-400, the lower one around 350) or hold off and see them drop further- but they're definitely dropping as is demand.
be warned that prices in your Mullingars will fall more than the prices in your Maynooths , and they more than the prices in your Milltowns. The commuter belt will shrink perceptibly as people hold out for somewhere at the same price but closer to Dublin.
Quote:
We viewed last night and said we didnt like it and ea practically held us hostage trying to get us to look at other properties.
How far out of Dublin

Carlow/Gorey/Virginia (Band 1)
Mullingar/Dunleer/Kells/Ardee/Arklow (Band 2)

or closer.

Bands 1 and 2 will simply evaporate as a commutable proposition in any noticeable downturn .

Nothing west of Kinnegad / North of Drogheda or Navan or South of Greystones and Kildare will shift if its an FTB property.

Thats 2packs 2Band prediction for ya .

Last edited by 2Pack : 06-07-2006 at 01:05 PM. Reason: 2Band Cleaned Up
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  #17  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:29 PM
bearishbull bearishbull is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Anyone hear the "today" show on rte radio1 today? they had a trinity economist and the head of the auctioneers and valuers on debating a "soft landing " or "crash" ,you can listen again on rte website.
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  #18  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:30 PM
ClubMan ClubMan is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Was the TCD bloke the one bemoaning the fact that people (individuals, developers, the state) are (shock horror!) making money out of the property market and basically encouraging interference in the market?
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  #19  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:44 PM
bearishbull bearishbull is offline
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Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClubMan
Was the TCD bloke the one bemoaning the fact that people (individuals, developers, the state) are (shock horror!) making money out of the property market and basically encouraging interference in the market?
I think he was just saying that the cost of the land is over half the price and that like in other countries land hoarding and rezoning windfalls should be gotten rid of by regulation.
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  #20  
Old 05-07-2006, 04:47 PM
coinfused coinfused is offline
 
Posts: 34
Default Re: current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Hi 2pack, much closer than Mullingar- a hop skip and jump from west Dublin, thats what has surprised us- if you're curious i can pm you the area. all this has only happened since Monday- makes me very suspicious
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