There are countless ways to spin the figures, and I've already read a few, but face facts, Clay Aiken's new album is performing sluggishly in the sales market.
Sure, the album sales market is depressed (down about 5% from last year and in a continuing downward trend). Nonetheless, Clay's 211,000 opening week was not the superstar number many were expecting (far less than his first album's 613,000 and even worse than his Christmas album). After all the mobilization among fans to hold special midnight sales parties and rally the troops to get out there and buy the album (one copy or multiples) in the first week, it didn't hit No. 1.
This week's total, 74,000 (good for No. 8), is not disastrous but not exactly promising. A 65% drop-off, while not exceptionally bad, is not all that healthy either. Justin Timberlake and Beyonce experienced similar drops in the last few weeks, but they sold a ton more in their first weeks (Justin went from 684,000 to 228,000; Beyonce went from 541,000 to 162,000). Here's some recent comparisons from artists closer to Clay's first-week sales neighborhood:
Fergie: 158,000 to 74,000 (-53%). John Mayer: 300,000 to 134,000 (-55%). Bob Dylan: 192,000 to 128,000 (-33%). Danity Kane: 234,000 to 117,000 (-50%). Outkast: 196,000 to 78,000 (-60%).
The long-term prognosis is dubious. You have to figure the hardcore fans have already bought it. So without some sort of unforeseen sales spur (like a massive hit single), it would be optimistic to expect even 50,000 sales next week. But let's assume he hits that figure. That would bring him to 336,000 for three weeks. Figure 35,000 the next week, 25,000 after that, 20,000 after that, and his total is 416,000. At that rate, he should be able to limp up to gold status after 10-12 weeks but is unlikely to get much higher. And for a guy who's sold nearly 3 million of his first album and more than a million of a Christmas album, that's a big loss of career momentum.