January 22, 2007
Baseballistic and Old School Ball HAVE MOVED
Daniel Rathman’s “Baseballistic” and Susan Kelly’s “Old School Ball” have moved to their own homes within the friendly confines of MVN.com.
You can find Baseballistic at mvn.com/mlb-baseballistic.
Old School Ball has moved to mvn.com/mlb-oldschoolball.
Adjust your bookmarks and enjoy the new features and friendlier design at MVN.com.
January 19, 2007
Samardzija Bolts Football for his “First Love”
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Imagine having played two sports for almost all of your childhood and teenage years, all the way through high school, and into college. Imagine having loved to play football and baseball, never wanting to give one up to devote yourself completely to the other. Imagine having the ability and potential to be a star player in either the National Football League or in Major League Baseball, after excelling during your collegiate career both as a sure-handed wide-receiver on the gridiron and as an ace right-handed starter on the diamond. And now, imagine having to choose between the two, with countless eyes staring at you and forcing you to make the all-important decision of which of your two athletic passions to give up and which to pursue.
The situation I just had you envision is the conundrum 21-year-old Jeff Samardzija has been dealing with for the better part of his collegiate life. Growing up in Valparaiso, Indiana, Samardzija seemed to be an athletic star no matter whether he was on a football field, baseball diamond, or basketball court. During his four years at Valparaiso High School, Samardzija was a letterman in three sports: football, baseball, and basketball. In football, the Serbian-American was thrice named to the all-state team. In baseball, Samardzija enjoyed a brilliant high school starting career. And Samardzija was no joke on the basketball court either. Before leaving high school for Notre Dame, Samardzija was invited to the Indiana football All-Star game.
Samardzija gave up basketball upon arriving at South Bend, deciding to focus on football and baseball, where he felt his true talents lied. Through his freshman and sophomore years as a wide-receiver for the football Irish, Samardzija caught just 24 passes for 327 yards and did not score a touchdown. But Samardzija burst back onto everyone’s radar with a fantastic junior campaign that included 77 catches for 1,249 yards and 15 touchdowns. This remarkable season, earned him All-American honors and rave reviews from football scouts who began to project Samardzija as a sure-fire first-rounder in the NFL draft.
Meanwhile, Samardzija was also enjoying success on the mound for the Notre Dame baseball team. As a freshman, he was named an All-American by Collegiate Baseball Magazine, after posting a 2.95ERA, .209 batting-average-against, and an impressive 22-inning scoreless streak. Samardzija continued to improve as a sophomore, compiling an 8-1 record with a 3.89ERA, while working as a starter and reliever for the Irish (Samardzija’s ERA is deceptively high because Notre Dame’s home ballpark is very hitter-friendly). In 15 outings (all starts) as a junior, Samardzija went 8-2 with a 3.82ERA, adding to an already impressive winning percentage and finishing with a line of 21-6 with a 3.82ERA and 159 strikeouts in 240.1 innings for his collegiate career.
Samardzija’s athletic talents and competitive nature earned him a 5th-round selection by the Cubs in the past MLB amateur draft. Still refusing to commit to one sport, the two-way phenom continued to excel on the gridiron, adding a terrific senior season of 78 catches and 1,017 yards to his football numbers. But at the end of the football season, the time had come for Jeff Samardzija to choose between his two passions, the sports that he had devoted immense efforts to for the better part of his 21 years on earth.
Earlier today, Samardzija announced his decision, agreeing to a 5-year, $10 million contract to officially join the Chicago Cubs. While he is still far-off from becoming a force in the Cubs’ starting rotation, Samardzija’s 97 mile-per-hour fastball should propel him to the Major Leagues within a few years. General Manager Jim Hendry expressed excitement about signing Shark, as Samardzija was nicknamed, saying that the Cubs project him to become “a high end starter”. Samardzija was equally delighted to begin his professional career, explaining his decision by stating that baseball is, and will always be, his “first love”.
Hardly half-a-day had passed after Samardzija’s announcement before sports analysts around the country began dissecting his decision and wondering if it was the correct path for him to take. Many experts noted that as a projected first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, Samardzija certainly stood to gain significantly more financially had he decided to pursue a professional football career. But others countered by saying that the risk of injury in baseball is much lower than in football and that Samardzija, if he develops into a solid starting pitcher, will not have made much of a financial sacrifice. This claim was rebutted by still other experts who pointed out that Samardzija would immediately be playing at the highest level in football, whereas a baseball career would require at least a couple of years of development in the minors. It seems that the back-and-forth arguments over Samardzija’s decision will be alive for a long while, especially since Shark’s career as a pitcher will begin as a member of the Class-A Daytona Cubs.
Ultimately however, Samardzija’s decision is quite simple. Of his two passions in life, Samardzija decided that baseball was the one he truly felt loyal to and the prospect of a great career as a starting pitcher in the MLB outweighed the potential of becoming a star wide-receiver in the NFL. His athleticism and competitive fire should make Samardzija an interesting prospect to follow throughout his minor league career, and if Jim Hendry’s words are to be taken seriously, Samardzija appears to have a bright future with the Chicago Cubs.
January 18, 2007
2007 Rookies Have a Tough Act to Follow
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2006 was a fantastic year to be a rookie in Major League Baseball. Looking back at each team’s season, it is difficult to identify a single club that did not benefit greatly from the presence of an impact first-year-Big Leaguer who quickly became a leader, and in some cases, the face of his organization. The amazing depth of the 2006 class of rookies made the competition for each League’s Rookie of the Year award fierce, and each of the races was thrilling to follow. The wildly successful freshman seasons of rising stars like Justin Verlander, Hanley Ramirez, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Liriano, and Ryan Zimmerman will be incredibly challenging for this year’s rookie class to follow. But a quick glance at the young players who will soon make their Major League debuts reveals a group of immensely talented pitchers and hitters who have bright and unlimited futures ahead of them. Here’s a look at the players who could ascend to stardom and thrive as rookies in 2007.
We’ll start with the American League, which will be home to a pair of fantastic young sluggers among many other talented youngsters next season…
Leading the pack is Delmon Young, who, despite bone-headedly throwing his bat at an umpire, had an excellent 2006 campaign split between Triple-A and the Big League team. Young, the 2005 Minor League Player of the Year, hit .316 with 8HR and 59RBI in 86 games in the minors this past season, and flashed his offensive prowess after a late-season call-up, batting .317 with 3HR and 10RBI with the Devil Rays over 30 games and 126 at-bats. The 21-year-old rightfielder is projected to hit .297/.334/.473 by Baseball Prospectus, while slamming 18HR and driving-in 73 runs. Add 33 doubles, 4 triples, and 22 steals to his projections and it’s easy to see why Young, who is also a solid defensive outfielder, is the leading candidate to take home the AL ROTY this upcoming season.
But Alex Gordon, a 23-year-old (when the season starts) 3rd-baseman with unlimited potential at the plate figures to give Delmon Young plenty of competition in the race to be the American League’s top rookie. Baseball Prospectus loves Gordon, currently slated in as the Royals’ starter at the hot corner, to the tune of a projected .282/.364/.511 line at the plate in 2007. Gordon is also expected to blast 26HR and compile 89RBI’s while drilling 39 doubles and 3 triples, while swiping 14 bases, and trying to give the Royals’ offense the spark it needs to get Kansas City back into contention. With some already comparing Gordon to star sluggers like Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Pat Burrell, the sky’s the limit for the ex-Cornhusker who has all the tools to become one of the best hitters in baseball by the end of his sophomore year.
The top rookie pitcher in the AL figures to be the Twins’ Matt Garza. If you judge the 23-year-old Garza solely by his numbers with the Twins last season, you’ll be sorely disappointed by the 3-6 record, 5.76ERA, and awful 1.70WHIP that Minnesota’s first-round pick from the 2005 draft posted over 10 appearances, 9 of which were starts. However, Garza’s minor league track record, split between 3 affiliates, from 2006 is sparkling, with a 14-4 record and fantastic 1.99ERA. That’s the Garza most scouts expect to show up for the Twins in 2007, and with Francisco Liriano out for the year to recover from Tommy John surgery, Minnesota will need Garza’s well-controlled, plus-fastball to be at its best. Baseball Prospectus sees an unimpressive 8-10 record coupled with an even-less-impressive 4.66ERA in his future, but I expect Garza to compile a stat line that exceeds those expectations by a mile, and to be a contender in the AL ROTY race.
Joining Matt Garza as one of the top rookie pitchers in 2007 will be Yankees’ phenom Philip Hughes. Hughes is currently considered one of the top-2 pitching prospects in baseball, and at just 20-years-old, the Yankees top pick from 2004 could get much better than he is now. While Hughes’ chances of winning the 5th-starter job out of Spring Training are not great, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll see plenty of Big League action this season. Hughes could be this year’s version of Jered Weaver: a highly-regarded prospect who comes to the Majors and has an immediate impact on his team. And Baseball Prospectus believes that Hughes is ready to be a Major Leaguer, projecting an optimistic 9-7 record with a 3.91ERA for the Yankees’ best prospect. Once again, it’s doubtful that Philip Hughes will be in the Yankees’ rotation come Opening Day, but he is a good bet to be an important piece of the puzzle by the 2nd half of the season given the injury-prone starters currently in the Yankees’ rotation.
Rounding-out the top-5 for the American League is Blue Jays’ rookie 1B/OF Adam Lind. While Lind is not penciled-in for a starting role yet, it’s hard to see the 23-year-old lefty not getting his fair share of at-bats and every chance to show his offensive prowess in the upcoming season. Over 60 at-bats at the tail-end of last season, Lind hit .367 with 2HR and 8RBI, adding 8 doubles en route to a 1.015OPS. While that batting average and OPS are inflated due to a small sample-size, Baseball Prospectus projects a .289/.349/.493 rookie season for Lind. Add 24HR, 36 doubles, and 90RBI to that projection and it’s easy to be excited about a young, powerful left-handed hitter like Adam Lind, who is a sleeper candidate for the ROTY award.
Notable top rookies that I didn’t mention who are likely to make their debuts in the upcoming season are Dustin Pedroia (2B – Red Sox), Bryan LaHair (1B – Mariners), Josh Fields (3B/OF – White Sox), and Erick Aybar (SS — Angels), among others.
And don’t forget that Japanese imports Akinori Iwamura, Kei Igawa, and Daisuke Matsuzaka are all rookie-eligible in 2007. Each of the three has the potential to succeed in the Major Leagues right off the bat, with Matsuzaka and Iwamura quickly becoming two of the favorites to win the AL ROTY. I did not include them as part of my top-5 rookies list for the AL because each of the trio has been playing Big League level baseball for a number of years and I don’t believe that comparing them with true-freshman ML’ers is fair.
Moving on to the National League…
The National League’s rookies for 2007 don’t have a clear leader, but there are plenty of young hitters and pitchers that figure to have an important impact on their teams in the upcoming year. One such rookie is Rockies’ shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who was given a taste of MLB-action at the tail-end of last season, hitting .240/.318/.292 with 1HR and 6RBI in that brief stint which included 96 at-bats (106 plate appearances). The 2005 1st-rounder out of Long Beach State has much more potential than that however, as the 22-year-old breezed through the Rockies’ minor league system and was named the top prospect in the AFL (Arizona Fall League). Although the Rockies have been aggressive, moving Tulowitzki through their system quickly, the heir to Bobby Crosby as shortstop for Long Beach State has even more promise at the plate than the man he succeeded and should hold his own and more playing at Coors Field in 2007. Baseball Prospectus confirms that view, forecasting a .291/.349/.461 line for Tulowitzki with 16HR, 76RBI, and 39 doubles. T-2 joins a Rockies’ lineup stacked with young sluggers including Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe, and his addition to the Colorado offense could give the Rox a chance to compete this upcoming season. Tulowitzki is one of the favorites to win the NL ROTY in 2007.
The top rookie pitcher in the National League this season is not a lock to make his team out of Spring Training, but could become this year’s Jered Weaver, much like Philip Hughes. That young flamethrower is Giants’ prospect Tim Lincecum, San Francisco’s first pick in the 2006 draft. Lincecum fires a fastball that can touch the century mark, but his true gem is the curveball which Lincecum carves to perfection. Baseball Prospectus thinks Lincecum is ready to be an impact starter, projecting a 7-6 record with a 3.18ERA for the 22-year-old northpaw from Washington. After dominating the lower levels of the Giants’ farm system, Lincecum will likely start in either AA-Connecticut or AAA-Fresno, but he’s almost a lock to be with the Big League team by the All-Star Break and possibly sooner. Once he gets the call, Lincecum will join sophomore flamethrower Matt Cain, giving the Giants a dynamic 2-3 combination behind ace Barry Zito. Lincecum’s shot at the ROTY is not great since he’s unlikely to get a full year of MLB-action, but he may very well be the cream of this year’s NL crop in terms of future performance.
Joining Lincecum as one of the top rookie pitchers in the NL is Mets’ prospect Mike Pelfrey. The 6’7”, lanky righthander was the Mets’ first pick in the 2005 draft and Manager Willie Randolph will need Pelfrey to be as phenomenal as he was in the minors for the team to have any serious championship ambitions in 2007. Baseball Prospectus sees an 8-8 season with a 4.30ERA and 1.41WHIP in Pelfrey’s future, but many, including me, believe that 23-year-old can put up much better numbers than that. While Pelfrey is not a lock to start the year in the Mets’ rotation, he’s almost certainly the first pitcher that will be called should a spot-start be necessary. He has the stuff and the confidence to be a top-notch starter, and if Pelfrey puts it all together this season, the Mets could have a new ace and he might soon be shining an NL ROTY.
Among the top rookie hitters for 2007 will be a 22-year-old who has already made baseball history. James Loney, the Dodgers’ first round selection from 2002, has blossomed into one of the best offensive prospects in baseball and his record-tying 9RBI performance earlier this season only solidifies the claims that the lefty 1st-sacker’s future is very bright. In total, Loney hit .284 with 4HR and 18RBI in 102 at-bats this past season, adding 6 doubles and 5 triples. Of his 29 hits, 15 went for extra-bases, and Loney could develop into one of the best extra-base hitters in all of baseball. Baseball Prospectus believes that Loney will compile a solid .295/.351/.470 line at the plate in 2007, adding 17HR and 80RBI, as well as 36 doubles and 3 triples, for an excellent season. Although Nomar Garciaparra is the starter at 1B for the Dodgers, he cannot be counted on to stay healthy, so it’s more than likely that Loney will get his fair share of at-bats. Baseball Prospectus also lists Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Morneau as two of the best comparables for Loney, and being mentioned in the same sentence with those two before your first Major League season says quite a bit. Look for Loney to be among the top vote-getters for ROTY at the end of the year.
And, capping the top-5 for the National League is Padres’ 1st-baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, acquired by San Diego for Josh Barfield early on in the offseason. Kouzmanoff is a 26-year-old righty who makes up for any defensive shortcoming he may have with his immense offensive prowess. In 4 minor league seasons, Kouzmanoff hit .332/.395/.556. In 2006, he posted a ridiculous .353/.409/.647 line at AAA-Buffalo after dominating AA-Akron to the tune of .389/.449/.660 earlier in the year. Baseball Prospectus sees .290/.348/.499 as a reasonable guesstimate for what Kouzmanoff will do in 2007, also projecting 23HR and 86RBI for the Padres’ top offensive acquisition of the offseason. That should be enough to merit serious consideration for the ROTY, and Kouzmanoff could exceed even those expectations. He is my pick to with the NL Rookie of the Year, over favorites like Tulowitzki, Pelfrey, and Lincecum.
Other notable rookies likely to debut in the NL this upcoming season are Kevin Frandsen (2B – Giants), Scott Thorman (1B – Braves), Andy LaRoche (3B/SS – Dodgers), Tony Gwynn Jr (OF – Brewers), with plenty more waiting in the wings.
While this year’s rookie class does not look as great or deep as that of 2006, young players have a way of surprising even the best experts. There are plenty of first-year hitters and pitchers with star-potential and if many of them live up to it, we just might see another great year for freshman ballplayers. It’s always exciting to watch the up-and-coming rookies and this year should be no different.
I’ll end with my predictions for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards…
American League: Alex Gordon (3B – Royals)
National League: Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B – Padres)
Giants Leaving Bonds in Limbo?
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Bonds and the Giants had apparently agreed to a one-year, $16 million deal weeks ago, yet as of this moment that deal has yet to be finalized. Word of a positive test result for amphetamines last season and Bonds initial eagerness to pin those results on a mystery substance he took from teammate Mark Sweeney’s locker has apparently caused the Giants to do a double take. According to inside sources, Bonds was so eager to get the deal done that he even agreed to have his entourage banned from the clubhouse, but it looks like that might not be enough to satisfy the Giants.
At one point in time, the Giants were more than happy to look the other way, allowing Bonds the kind of luxuries that most other players can’t even think about. Not only was he allowed to have various personal assistants, trainers, etc. in the clubhouse – in direct defiance of Commissioner Selig’s rule against unofficial team personnel being given clubhouse access – he was also allowed to have the comforts of home, right down to his now infamous leather recliner next to his locker. Given what he was producing on the field, the Giants reasoned that whatever it took to make Barry happy was worth it to them.
But it seems like Bonds’ off-the-field behavior may finally be catching up to him. Ever since the dawning of the Balco scandal, the black cloud over Bonds’ head has grown larger and more ominous, even as he has continued to chase one of baseball’s most significant records. Now, he’s poised on the threshold of breaking Hank Aaron’s career home runs record and the Giants are trying to decide whether it is in their best interest to allow him to do so in a San Francisco uniform. Despite all the bad press and bad receptions he’s gotten around baseball, Bonds could always count on the home crowd for a little unconditional love. But is it possible that Bonds has pushed even the San Francisco faithful a little too far?
That’s the question which hangs in the air, and you know that somewhere Commissioner Selig is on his knees, praying that the Giants will make his life easier by reneging on the deal with Bonds. Despite the happy face he continues to put on it, the last thing the Commissioner really wants is for Bonds to break Aaron’s record. Bonds very existence in the game has become a sticky matter for the front offices of MLB, add baseball’s most prestigious record to his list of accomplishments and it will become that much more difficult for MLB to dismiss him. To paraphrase the great Rogers and Hammerstein…How do you solve a problem like Barry?
If the Giants were to back out of the deal, given the lack of general interest in Bonds during the winter meetings, it is conceivable that he might not get picked up. Left with no other options, he could be forced to consider retirement. Of course, this is still Barry Bonds we’re talking about and it is certainly conceivable – probably very likely – that some team would step forward and make him an offer. The Red Sox have been mentioned as a team who might have some interest. But any team taking him on will be forced to consider the same dilemma the Giants are now facing…do Barry’s contributions on the field still outweigh Barry being Barry off the field?
Never considered the ideal teammate, Bonds eagerness to pawn blame for his latest trouble onto a teammate almost certainly won’t sit well in the clubhouse, despite the fact that he issued a public apology to Sweeney. Clubhouse unrest, seemingly unending legal troubles, the remaining doubts about his drug use, and a less than pleasant personality on top of it all…it’s a lot for any team to tolerate. Up to now, the Giants have been more than willing, but perhaps the tide has finally turned.
Bonds’ retiring before he breaks Hank Aaron’s record would certainly be in the best interest of baseball, but short of a federal indictment, there is nothing that can be done to force Barry’s hand. Unless, perhaps, teams decide they’ve had enough. As of now, the Giants have left their most notorious player in limbo. Whatever they eventually decide, their next move will be one of historic significance. For the sake of baseball, it would be nice if the history books could somehow come out unscathed.
January 16, 2007
A Slammin’ Comeback For Sammy Sosa?
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Just when we thought all the big-name players were off the free agent market, one more has appeared from out of nowhere. He’s 38 years old and sat-out the entire 2006 season, but with 588 career homeruns, it appears that Sammy Sosa will get the chance to come back slammin’. While Sosa is a .274/.345/.537 hitter over 17 Major League seasons, it’s hard to imagine the Dominican putting up an OPS anywhere near .882, and any team that signs him will likely have to take-on the risk of getting a player who can no longer swing for the fences and is a major liability in the field. Still, Sammy Sosa is one of the top power-hitters in baseball history and it was only two years ago that he hit 35 homeruns in his final season with the Cubs. And the Texas Rangers, searching for a right-handed half to their rightfield and designated-hitter platoon, may be willing – or desperate enough – to give Slammin’ Sammy another crack at the spotlight.
Prior to the 2006 season, Baseball Prospectus projected the following numbers for Sammy Sosa in 2007: .238/.305/.420 with 11HR and 39RBI, plus 11 doubles and 29 runs scored in 283 plate appearances. Sosa’s VORP of 0.6 is far from optimistic, and PECOTA believes that the long-time Cub will be nothing but a burden in rightfield. His projected MLVr (lineup value) of -.071 crushes any value not-so-slammin’ Sammy still appears to have. It’s important to remember however, that these projections were made prior to the 2006 season, and if Sosa’s year-long vacation is taken into account, it’s hard to foresee even a mediocre year from him in 2007. Also important to note is that even though Baseball Prospectus claims that its PECOTA projections are “deadly accurate”, they sometimes are not, especially in unusual circumstances such as the ones surrounding Sosa. All things considered, Sosa is extremely unlikely to regain his offensive prowess, barring a miraculous comeback or, well, we won’t go there.
But the Rangers are still showing plenty of interest in the 7-time all-star, and Sosa’s dinner with GM Jon Daniels on Monday night indicates that Texas is confident that he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Slammin’ Sammy was also invited to work-out with the Rangers on Monday, and it appears that he is in adequate physical shape to merit strong consideration for the platoon opening that Texas is desperately trying to fill.
The risk in signing Sammy Sosa is minimal, and the potential reward greatly exceeds it, because a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation is likely all that would have to be offered for Sosa to pen his signature on the contract. Although the aging slugger brings very little upside to the table, and is far more likely to discover that his skills have eroded, Sosa could turn out to be a bargain addition if he agrees to a deal worth under a million dollars and is kept in a DH-only role.
A look at the Rangers’ other free agent options only solidifies the case for giving Sosa another chance. The top choices available who fit the right-handed hitting RF/DH mold are Craig Wilson, Preston Wilson, and Bernie Williams — each member of that trio would bring plenty of baggage or risk with them (money, age, injury, defensive, etc…). In other words, the depleted free agent market is so devoid of talent that desperate GMs, like Jon Daniels, are forced seek creative solutions to their problems, such as signing a has-been star from the past – in this case, Sammy Sosa.
A return to stardom for Sammy Sosa is extremely unlikely, but it’s equally unlikely that the Rangers expect a miraculous comeback from a player well past his prime. If he is available on the cheap (minor league deal or less than $750K) Slammin’ Sammy is definitely worthy of another chance, and he could prove to be a decent, albeit band-aid, solution to the Rangers’ RF/DH platoon problem.
January 12, 2007
Blank Ballots Confirm Need for Change
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With the offseason winding down and Spring Training still over a month away, the attention of the baseball world has turned to the Hall of Fame balloting, the results of which were announced on Tuesday. We learned then that this year’s lone inductees were Cal Ripken Jr and Tony Gwynn, both of whom received near-unanimous support of over 98 and 97 percent of the voters, respectively. We learned that long-time hopefuls Jim Rice and Rich “Goose” Gossage were once again denied in their bids for enshrinement. And finally, we learned that the controversial candidacies of Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco, marred by the allegations that both had used performance-enhancing drugs, were unsuccessful, with the voters dismissing them by a wide margin. It was hardly a surprise that the voters chose to keep the alleged “juicers” out of the Hall of Fame, at least for now, but a couple of ballot-casters took it a step further, making a controversial statement by submitting their ballots with nothing on them.
One of the two voters to turn in a blank ballot was Paul Ladewski, a writer for The Daily Southtown, based in the suburbs of Chicago. He claimed that more information was needed about the steroid era before an accurate decision on who is worthy of a Hall of Fame induction can be reached. Ladewski looked through the facts and decided that his best service as a Hall of Fame voter would be to make a statement saying that a more focused investigation of the use of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball was not only necessary, but crucial to the integrity of the game. Unfortunately, by casting a blank ballot, Ladewski has made a completely different statement, one that points out his own naïveness and unwillingness to enshrine even the most honest players ever to set foot on an MLB diamond.
When all the votes were tallied, the results showed that all but 8 voters expressed support for Cal Ripken Jr, and just 11 decided against voting for Gwynn. There were however, just two voters who chose to support neither Ripken nor Gwynn: the blank-balloters.
There are no doubts about the honesty, integrity, and “clean-ness” of the great careers enjoyed by Cal Ripken Jr and Tony Gwynn. Therefore, there is no reason to make a stand against the steroid scandal by ignoring the efforts of the true stars of the game and involving them in a mess they had nothing to do with.
I do not believe that Ladewski or his fellow blank-balloter intended to ignore the spectacular careers of Ripken and Gwynn, but in effect, that’s the most important thing the duo accomplished. Two blank ballots won’t convince anyone to start a new investigation – it just makes the voters look untrustworthy, and to a degree, stupid. If Ladewski’s true motive for casting a blank ballot was to publicize his frustration at the lack of knowledge regarding steroid use in baseball, his decision to vote for no one, not even the most honest of players, is shallow, ridiculous, and even hypocritical.
No player has ever been inducted into Cooperstown by a unanimous vote, but Cal Ripken Jr and Tony Gwynn came about as close as anyone ever has. If you eliminate the two blank-balloters, just 6 voters did not support Ripken, and just 9 decided not to vote for Gwynn. Both of them, if you take a closer look at their credentials, are easily worthy of being enshrined. Obviously, each voter is entitled to their own decision, but this choice should not be made because of personal judgments and gut opinions. Rather, the voters have a responsibility to educate themselves about the candidates and then sift out the cream of the year’s crop, and vote for them to be inducted.
Ladewski and his fellow blank-balloter were, among other things, irresponsible, because a chance to vote for the Hall of Fame is to be considered an honor, not a chance to make a point. If Ladewski wanted publicity, he certainly got it, as papers, reporters, and even radio stations are flocking to get an interview with the anomalous voter. Over the past few days, Ladewski has earned multiple radio appearances, including a national gig on National Public Radio. We honor people for being different, for standing out, but Ladewski is not worthy of that kind of publicity – in fact, I’m cringing at the fact that I’m adding to the number of articles devoted to him over the past few days.
And this brings me to my final point, that baseball needs a new, or at least amended, voting system for inducting players into the Hall of Fame. While the sportswriters honored with the opportunity to elect baseball’s Hall of Famers often do their job well, there are just as many occasions when take advantage of the opportunity presented to them – like Paul Ladewski did this year. Perhaps we should allow only the most senior baseball analysts/reporters to vote; thereby making sure that the voters will be honest and trustworthy and won’t abuse their power as an opportunity to make a point or as a publicity stunt. Maybe it should simply be left up to a committee, the way other sports, such as the National Football League handle their Hall of Fame inductions. The only thing that’s clear right now is that the voting process for baseball’s Hall of Fame needs revision, and soon.
Paul Ladewski wanted to make a point about the need for more information about the steroid scandal; instead, he’s succeeded in confirming a growing belief that the election process for Cooperstown needs to be changed. Here’s hoping that baseball finds a better way to decide which players are worthy of enshrinement and that the voting is taken out of the hands of selfish, irresponsible writers like Paul Ladewski.
January 11, 2007
Roger Maris: The Odd Man Out
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And it also came as little surprise that discussion of Mark McGwire and the issue of his possible steroid use nearly overshadowed the election announcement. It’s a topic that is almost impossible to avoid, and given the meager support of McGwire (he finished with just 23.5 percent of the vote), it is certainly relevant. But the fact that it should be allowed to horn in on the festivities surrounding two of baseball’s greatest representatives is, at the very least, a shame. At most, it is yet another terrible indicator of the hold this particular subject has over the game.
But this wouldn’t be the first time the considerable shadow of Mark McGwire has been cast over the record of a true baseball hero. In breaking the single season home run record in 1998, McGwire both literally and figuratively caused Roger Maris to step aside. To his credit, McGwire himself did not take the occasion lightly. For anyone who was watching on that balmy night in St. Louis when McGwire hit number 62, it is impossible to forget the image of the giant slugger jumping the fence at Busch Stadium to give a teary hug to Maris’ children.
McGwire clearly had all the respect in the world for the man whose record he broke, then all but obliterated on his way to a final total of 70. If only MLB, and the historical record, could say the same. From the moment Maris found himself in the unthinkable position of chasing the great Babe Ruth’s home run record, he was cast almost unanimously as the villain. He spent the entire 1961 season fending off a barrage of boo’s and worse. It got so bad that it literally made him ill. And when he finally managed to hit number 61, what did he get for his trouble? An asterisk, which remains to this day one of the ugliest black marks in the record books.
Little respect from the fans, and even less from the governing body of baseball who decided, in a lame attempt to appease the angry crowds, that Maris’ record shouldn’t stand on its own because he had a longer season in which to set it. Gee, and whose idea was it to lengthen the season anyway? I seriously doubt it was Roger Maris. Yet there he stood, for over 30 years, the record holder who wasn’t really a record holder. And then, suddenly, baseball had someone to challenge that record. Someone who could put up a new number, sans asterisk, and finally allow MLB to put that whole uncomfortable situation behind them. Little did they know that Mark McGwire would be opening up a can of worms that would make Maris’ asterisk pale in comparison.
And now McGwire’s name is being mentioned in connection with the Hall of Fame. Should he be voted in or has he forfeited his right to inclusion? The debate rages on and will likely continue for at least as long as he remains on the ballot. It’s a valid question, certainly, but I have to wonder about the question that isn’t being asked, but should be…what about Roger Maris? Granted, his career numbers on their own don’t guarantee immediate induction into the Hall, but like it or not, the man set an astounding record along the way. Doesn’t he deserve the same kind of recognition? Or doesn’t working hard, on your own, to achieve something count for anything anymore?
Apparently it counted enough in the case of Ripken and Gwynn, two players who managed lengthy, noteworthy careers despite a complete lack of chemical assistance. These are the kind of players MLB should want in the spotlight. Hard working, talented, soft spoken men who loved playing baseball and took great pride in doing it well. There is a lot of tarnish on the image of baseball and these are the kind of players who can go a long way toward removing it.
Debate the Mark McGwire’s of the world as much as you want, but why not do the right thing for once and pay a little respect to Roger Maris? You could do much worse for heroes, and in recent years baseball has been far too eager to do just that. In a year when two of baseball’s true heroes are being rightfully acknowledged, it’s worth a minute to consider Roger Maris as well. He’s been baseball’s odd man out for far too long.
January 10, 2007
A Valuable Unit
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The Hot Stove is cooling quickly, with Spring Training fast approaching and only 36 days away. The free agent market has been nearly dead since Barry Zito signed his mega-deal with the Giants, and although some of the available players have upside, the majority of the activity over the next couple of months will likely be on the trade front. The most recent trade to be finalized was agreed upon last week, when the Diamondbacks decided to bring Randy Johnson back to Arizona, taking on his hefty salary, while sending three young players and a reliever to the New York Yankees. It’s a swap that could have a positive effect on both teams; however the potential benefits of this trade for the D-Backs and Yankees are very different. Here’s a look at what drove GM’s Brian Cashman and Josh Byrnes to strike the deal.
From the Yankees’ perspective, getting Randy Johnson as far away from New York as possible was the primary goal of this trade. The 43-year-old Big Unit is due to make a whopping $16M next season, and Johnson’s numbers are rapidly declining as his stuff deteriorates at just as fast a pace. Randy Johnson, as the Yankees’ #3 starter, went 17-11 last season, but with an 5.00ERA. While his win total from last season will probably put a smile on any shallow Diamondbacks fan’s face, a deeper look reveals that the Unit also surrendered 28 homeruns in 2006 and was disgusting to the tune of a .321 batting average against with runners on-base. Any team should be happy to get rid of a starter who allowed opponents to hit .321 against him with runners aboard, especially if that same starter is also seeing his strikeout rates decline rapidly, as his walks rates increase at the same alarming pace. Add in to the equation that the same starter allowed opposing batters to slug over .400 for the first time in years and had many starts marred by ineffectiveness and inconsistent command, and it becomes crystal clear why Brian Cashman felt he could cash in by moving Johnson as quickly as possible.
But by dealing Randy Johnson, the Yankees also accomplished two things that have nothing to do with the Unit himself. The first, and most obvious, is that New York now has room for Roger Clemens in its starting rotation. While it’s far from guaranteed that the Rocket will decide to pitch another season (or half-season), if he does choose to return, the Yankees will immediately become the frontrunners to land his services, ahead of the Red Sox and Astros, because New York would offer him a chance to win and a solid role in the starting-5.
Moving Johnson has also enabled the Yankees to give young pitchers with limited MLB experience, such as Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, another look, while giving highly-touted prospects like Humberto Sanchez and Philip Hughes a chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation by mid-season. While the loss of Johnson may seem like a huge one simply because he often eats over 200 innings in a season and pitches well enough to win (mostly because of the terrific run-support he gets from the powerful Yankees’ offense), with plenty of young pitchers inching closer to MLB readiness, the vacancy at the end of the rotation will not be all that hard to fill internally for Brian Cashman and Joe Torre. Add Japanese star Kei Igawa, acquired by New York via the posting process, into the mix and it’s obvious that the Yankees really didn’t have any need for the Big Unit anymore.
All those benefits and I still haven’t mentioned the prospects New York will be getting in exchange for Johnson. To acquire the Big Unit, the Diamondbacks sent pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Luis Vizcaino to the Yankees, as well as infielder Alberto Gonzalez. Ohlendorf is a 24-year-old righthander who depends on his pinpoint command to get batters out. He’s probably best-suited for a long-relief role or a 5th starter job when he comes up to the Majors, likely by the end of this season or in 2008. Jackson, 25, is a “useful” pitcher to have on your staff because he does not give up the long-ball. His stuff is better than Ohlendorf’s, but Jackson’s ceiling is similar in that he’s destined for the back-of-the-rotation. Alberto Gonzalez is an excellent defensive shortstop, but although he has a decent eye at the plate, his power leaves much to be desired, even from a middle-infielder. At 24-years-old, Gonzalez likely has future defensive-replacement written all over him. And finally, Luis Vizcaino is a 32-year-old righthander with a career 25-23 record with a 4.24ERA out of the bullpen, over 408 MLB appearances. Vizcaino is extremely tough on lefties (surprising, given that he’s a righty) holding southpaws to a paltry .163 average at the plate last season. In other words, the players the Yankees got from Arizona in exchange for Johnson were probably the least beneficial part of this trade for them, but with so many other possibilities up opening due to the deal, it’s not difficult to see why Brian Cashman was salivating over it from the start.
Usually when one team is that happy to complete a trade, the other club involved is getting ripped-off. In this case, that is both true and false, in that Arizona is the clear loser on paper, but a potential winner off the field. Randy Johnson is 43 years old, his best years are behind him, and he’s falling apart (back and knee injuries riddled his 2006 season). Yet, he’s widely recognized as one of the top pitchers in baseball right now (in terms of career numbers and success) and fans will flock to Chase Field to watch Johnson try to make an improbable return to dominance.
On the field however, the Diamondbacks have very likely gotten a #4 starter, even by National League standards. Johnson, who isn’t even guaranteed to be ready for Opening Day because of surgery, will likely have better numbers pitching in the offensively-strapped NL West division, and in the 8-hitter lineups of the National League. Unfortunately, the Unit is also moving from one of the most pitcher-friendly home ballparks in baseball (Yankees Stadium), to a park that significantly favors hitters (Chase Field). This transition could compensate for the AL-to-NL move because Johnson is becoming increasingly dependent on the fly-ball to get his outs, meaning that the hitter-friendly environment of Chase Field will impact him more than it would a groundballer. With decreased run support, I think Johnson will pitch his way to a 12-10 record and an ERA in the mid-4.00’s next season, which won’t come close to making him worth a salary well over $10M, much less the 2-year, $26M extension he received from the Diamondbacks to complete the trade.
If you think about performance and potential as the main methods of assessing a trade, Josh Byrnes should be fired for trading 3 prospects and a reliever for Randy Johnson and $2M. However, the Diamondbacks are a team looking to gain popularity, and adding one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball history to their rotation will aid them greatly in that quest. Johnson, in addition to a newer ballpark and fresh uniforms and colors shows that the Diamondbacks are serious about building a future contender for their fans, and although it’s unlikely that Arizona will make a serious push in Johnson’s 3-year tenure with the team, the trade should reassure fans that the front office truly wants to win.
The Diamondbacks and Yankees can both come away as winners in this trade, simply because each team’s goal in striking the deal was different. The Yankees have upgraded their farm system and now have several decent pitching prospects close to MLB-readiness, while the Diamondbacks now have a proven veteran pitcher, and with him, much increased fan support.
The Big Unit is likely to regain his status as a big hit now that he’s pitching close to home, and the Yankees could not be happier to give him the opportunity to get back on the right track for the final years of a spectacular career. In the end, this deal will probably work out for both sides, although there is a chance that it will work out for neither.
