2003 Free Agents

By Aran Smith and Benjamin Egger

Key: PO = Player Option to resign with team, TO = Team Option to resign with team, QO = Qualifying Offer (team has the right to sign them for 1 year) RFA= Restricted Free Agent, URA = Unrestricted Free Agent

As always, what looked to be an off-season full of deals will probably see a lot of stability and resignings, with 10 to 20 times more trade rumors than actual trades. But, as is the case almost every year, there will be a couple of big names moving to new places, while the rest will stay at home, and the biggest free agents signed in the off-season will be the ones that didn’t make a lot of noise over the summer, but step up big once the season rolls around. Utah, San Antonio, Denver, Washington and the hapless LA’s Clippers are 5 teams with substantial cap space. With a whopping 14 million under the cap, San Antonio will likely be the big spender, but 2/3 of the team that just won the title are on the open market, and will use some of their cash to bring a few of those players back, and probably keep a few bucks for budding stars Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in the future. Putting together a list like this is very tough as the needs for teams are not uniform. For a team that is rebuiliding such as Denver, a young player with great upside such as Gilbert Arenas makes the most sense. While for a contender such as the Lakers or the Spurs the quality verterens such as Karl Malone or Gary Payton that can give their title hopes a boost make more sense. So, without further ado, here is NBADraft.net’s ranking of the summer’s free agent pool. 

1. Tim Duncan (27) UFA -- The top player in the league is an unrestiricted free agent since he opted out of his contract . But don't get too excited, he and the Spurs will not be parting ways. He's already begun negotiating a new deal, so if he leaves the NBA Champion Spurs, some GM will have to pull off the biggest free agent coup of all time, even bigger than when Jerry West talked Shaq into opting out of the Magical duo with Penny, that led to the resurrection of LaLa land. Duncan has no reason to leave. San Antonio fits his style and they can really build upon what has already been accomplished.

2. Jason Kidd (30) PO -- As we've seen over the past two seasons, the value that Kidd brings to a team is immeasurable. Two years, two finals appearances. From a team that couldn't get into the playoffs before he arrived. He may be a little old to throw max money at, but if anyone can turn a franchise around, as he's shown in the past, it's Kidd. He will consider all of his options, basically San Antonio or a sign and trade with maybe Dallas, Sacramento, Golden State, or a surprise contender that gets in Kidd’s ear, but will probably be back for another run in the Meadowlands. If he resigns, New Jersey will be the concensus Eastern Conference favorite and likely make another NBA title run.

3. Jermaine O’Neal (24) UFA -- At least one big name has got to be on the move right? The budding prep-to-pros superstar made his mark as one of the best in the league’s plethora of talented PFs. Several teams will look into sign and trade possibilities for the "other" O’Neal, while the champion Spurs with all their cash, and Denver with cap room and a skilled but very young roster somewhat similar to the Pacers, will consider signing him outright. He seems more likely than Kidd and Duncan to leave his current team, but with Indiana having a strong core of young talent and JO as the established centerpiece; it’s more likely he stays than goes. Still, after the late season collapse of Isaiah Thomas’ team and the many blowups of Ron Artest, there are places that can paint a more attractive picture for O’Neal, and it’s not implausable for him to go elsewhere. 

4. Elton Brand (24) RFA QO -- Elton Brand is the one guy the Clippers will make an effort to resign. They view him as thier franchise player and due to the fact that there is a minimum salary in the NBA, the team figures it might as well pay someone. However don't look for Brand to stick around. He will most likely take the 1 year tender and hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Clippers really thought they could keep Brand around would they have taken Chris Wilcox, Melvin Ely and Greek Baby Shaq in the past two drafts? With 4 talented Clippers making salary pushes, (and therefore caring less about winning) expect the Clippers to win about 20 games next year.

5. Gilbert Arenas (21) RFA -- Arenas has more buzz than any free agent because he's one of the few in the top 5-10 that is most likely to join a new team. Arenas is beginning to get comaparisons to players such as Steve Francis. There havne't been many players this good this young. So just how good can he become? He' s had a meteoric rise since slipping into the second round on draft day 2001 after leaving Arizona as a sophomore. Now, two short years later he's demanding a big money deal as a free agent. It would be nice to see him prove it over a longer period of time, but that's just the gamble someone will have to make. The leading contender for his services are the Nuggets, but it could be Miami, along with a few others organizations, and there is still the remote chance that he resigns with Golden State, who passed on several PG's to draft Mickael Pietrus, a position where they already have some quality players. Arenas is not likely to sign a short term deal, meaning the Warriors will have to dump some salaries to match an offer made to him.

6. Lamar Odom (24) RFA QO -- Odom wouldn't rate nearly this high on most teams lists, but we really like him. He could arguably be the most talented of the young Clippers, but also the most affected by his stay with the Clippers and likely to not utilize his impressive skills. He has battled injuries and off-the-court difficulties since entering the league. He’s been blasted time and again in the media for being another Clipper head case. But he’s got the skills of a point guard in a 6’10 body. He can do things on the floor that few others are capable of, especially those his size. He’s a restricted FA, so he may be leaving the Clippers this summer, or unfettered next summer. Pat Riley has long been rumored to want Odom on the Heat, although they have Caron Butler and Dwyane Wade in the wings now, with Eddie Jones still around, and Odom is not the true point guard they could use. He along with his 3 fellow Clipper RFA's will all likely accept the 1 year tender and hit the open market next summer with no chance of Clipper interference.

7. Andre Miller (27) RFA QO -- The Los Angeles native came home to the Clippers in one of last year’s big summer moves, and busted. He was supposed to be the perfect floor general to take this franchise out of its losing ways. It didn’t happen, and this year or next, he will be one more former Clipper making big contributions elsewhere. Miller had some strong seasons in Cleveland in which he established himself as one of the league’s premier ‘pass-first’ point guards, but the effects of going home has been a hindrance for many fine players in all professional sports (i.e. be careful LeBron) and Miller has been no exception. Miller, who lead Rick Majerus’ Utah Utes to a Final Four after Keith Van Horn was gone, will be wanted, and may be one of the few players who would actually want Utah’s money. Stockton is gone, and he follows in the feed-others-first style, but a lot of other teams will be recruiting him too, and Denver as well as Miami will probably make a pitch.

8. Gary Payton (35) UFA -- Payton has been everything you could want out of an NBA point guard: shoot, handle, pass, score, defend, rebound, and has done it all at a rather high level. Payton is one of the better guards the NBA has EVER had. And he has a few very good seasons left. But the NBA is all potential these days, and all the players above him are younger and look to have many more productive years left. Payton could move on to the Lakers, maybe a sign and trade to Indiana, or one of several other suitors, but the best choice may be to stay in Wisconsin. The familiar George Karl is there, which may or may not be a bonus to GP. What is a definite bonus is his possible student TJ Ford, who can learn from GP, but is not a similar player. Ford allows Payton the opportunity slide over to the off guard every now and again and score some points while not having the pressure of operating the offense. This team offers a very enticing chance to be on a championship contender for the rest of his career. Payton is the missing piece this roster is built to go around, and with the notoriously weak East to prey on, he may well stick around, which should make them one of the more exciting, high scoring teams in the league. 

9. Juwan Howard (30) UFA -- He won’t be able to snare a $100 million offer out of Pat Riley again, but he will still be a hotly desired commodity on the free agent market. The wrath Howard took for snaring the monster contract was mostly paid for by enduring the hell that has been the Nuggets the last two years. Howard put in his time on a loser, and came out as a bona fide leader in the locker room and as a player whose willing to do whatever the team asks of him, and now may be the best of his Fab 5 brethren to have on your roster right now, with Chris Webber’s impending trial and Jalen Rose’s turmoil in Chicago. Everyone wants him, and assumes since he’s already made more money than he should have, will accept a mid level exemption or less for a chance to be a champion. With his last contract, he can now join whoever he wants with no worries, but with so many offering the mid level, someone showing more $$$ could be the one who gets him. Everyone is in the hunt, San Antonio, the Lakers, Orlando, Utah, Seattle, Boston, everyone who needs another player in the post (and that is every team in the league considering the Clippers don’t count) would like, and probably thinks they could add, Howard to their roster. Denver is also desperate to resign him, and keep him in the role as leader in the locker room, for a team that could be develop into a champion as well before Howard’s career is over several years from now. 

10. Corey Maggette (24) RFA QO -- Another of the young guns out of LA who will almost certainly be on a new team this coming season or the next. But that is probably the biggest mystery of the summer, which Clippers will stay and who will go? Every other franchise in the league is looking to pick their bones, and would like to add any of their talented players. Maggette may even have a bigger upside than steady teammates Brand and Miller, but he is also a better chance to be a bust. He really showed improvements in his basketball ability at the end of last season, to go along with the always spectacular size, speed, strength, and leaping ability. The Nuggets have money to spend and a weakness on the wing. So does Utah. And San Antonio would be an attractive destination as well, as he has a similar game, and probably better skills than fellow free agent Stephen Jackson. Maggette will be fielding a lot of offers over the summer, but who his next team is, along with when he’ll join them, is up in the air. 

11. Alonzo Mourning (33) UFA -- ‘Zo’s slot on this list would be higher, but there are big question marks surrounding his ability to play at the level he did before the kidney ailment. A healthy Mourning lands you one of the best C’s you could find. He’s a beast on defense, controlling the lane while blocking and altering shots and hauling in boards. He has a solid back to the basket offensive game, scoring moves on the block, and a smooth mid range J, consistent anywhere inside the arc. Then there’s the potential unhealthy Mourning, who has missed the vast majority of the last three seasons, although he had solid productivity the year before last, but wasn’t exactly the old ‘Zo. He’s also getting up there in years at 33, and doesn’t exactly heal like a kid anymore. While doctors say he’s 100% healthy now, they said the same thing two seasons ago, and he missed all of last year. However, even at half the player he was, he’d be better than most guys posing as centers around the league right now. If he leaves, Dallas is the current frontrunner for his services, but others will make a bid for him. The key will be someone who’s willing to show him more faith than just a one or two year deal at the mid level exemption. 

12. Speedy Claxton (25) RFA QO -- If the list were based on where teams would rate him he would probably be lower, however Claxton showed in the finals that he has the guts when the chips are down. He was the floor general on the floor making it happen at the end of the Finals and he's still getting better. Claxton may opt for a short deal or move to a team where he can have a chance to start.

13. Brad Miller (27) UFA -- Miller was an All Star last year, so that helps his cause on the open market. Due to his more valued teammate O'Neal also being on the open market there's a good chance one of them will slip away. Miller has been a tough, hardnosed center since joining the team along with Artest in the Jalen Rose trade. A solid big man is a highly desired commodity in the NBA these days, and while not spectacular, Miller can hold his own defensively on the block, and provide decent skills on the offensive end. Not one of the most talented players around, but there are few centers who can give you more than he will, and even fewer who provide his consistent effort. Due to their high payroll, the team may not opt to keep both bigmen free agents.

14. Rasho Nesterovic (27) UFA -- 7-foot C's with his skills are rare. He'll never be a dominant force in the paint, although he is coming off the best season of his career. The Knicks are interested but it would take a sign and trade and the Knicks really don't have anything Minnesota wants. Having his offensive abilities, and recently acquired defensive specialist Ervin Johnson off the bench, along with the forgotten former surprise rookie Marc Jackson, gives Minnesota as good a center rotation as much of the rest of the league, and they put a lot of time into developing Rasho, and aren’t going to let him go without a fight.

15. Richard Hamilton (25) RFA QO -- Rip has consistently been putting up 20 a game, and was the best scorer on the Pistons. It makes no sense for the Pistons to let him leave, as they have no one ready to step into his shoes and give them the points he does. However, Larry Brown may want to make a change and find a more defensive minded player similar to the types he filled the Sixers roster with. Detroit may let Rip shop himself around over the summer, but due to the fact that there are few teams with cap spcae and more desireable players out there, he will likely resign with Detroit. Dumars is too smart to shell out too much for Hamilton, so the negotiations might not happen right away.

16. Karl Malone (40) UFA -- For teams such as the Lakers and Mavs, Malone would rate much higher on this list. If we're talking just for next season, Malone is in the top 5-10 free agents. However how long is his shelf life? At 40, the Mailman and obviously can’t have much time left on a great career. But, Malone has always been one of the best conditioned players in the league, he isn't one of those players that needs a lot of lift to be succesful and still has an imposing physique. The Lakers would love to bring Karl in. So what's more important to Karl, a ring or the All time scoring title? Dallas is in desperate need of someone inside, but would like a more defensive oriented man in the middle than Karl, and Dallas wouldn't give him much of a chance to break the scoring record. The Spurs could use someone to play next to Duncan. Ultimitely it will come down to which Karl seems as more important, the scoring title and more money (Utah) or a ring, (San Antonio, Dallas, or LA Lakers).

17. Michael Olowokandi UFA (28) -- For a player making a salary push, he didn't move many mountains. What a fall from grace from the former No. 1 pick. If that draft were reheld today, the Kandiman would go in the late lotto area at best. But, Olowoandi is still a rare bigman who can be effective when the inspiration strikes him. a player with skills and ability to produce on both ends of the floor. Athletically, he’s an above average 7’ who can block shots, get boards, has size and strength, to go with a decent array of offensive moves. But his motivation and desire to be a great player are a big question, along with some injury woes. Kandi will likely get a one year deal again from someone, most likely the Heat, Spurs, or Magic, and probably at the mid level, if that, getting a look from most everyone who’s in the market, and once again having the opportunity for a big year, and a bigger payday next summer. 

18.  James Posey (26) RFA -- Consummate role player who came to Houston in the three team swap that sent Kenny Thomas to Phily, and provided a solid defensive stopper on the wing at the small forward slot. He came from a losing atmosphere with the Nuggets, and adapted well to winning basketball. Posey is known for his hard nosed play, similar to Ron Artest. He provides much of the same capabilities as the Pacers star, a solid offensive weapon with a decent J and handle, but one who makes his money by playing shutdown defense, attacking the glass, forcing turnovers, and doing other little things it takes to win games. He isn't quite the lockdown defender of Artest, but he comes without the headaches and violent outbursts. He proved his value in Houston, and will be hard to pry away from the franchise with stars Steve Francis and Yao Ming allowing Posey to play a complementary role. He has the skills to help many teams, who may try and bring him in at the mid level exemption, although he is a restricted FA and Houston will probably match any offer he gets.

19. Donnell Harvey (23) UFA -- The former Florida Gator left somewhat prematurely and went late in the first round, but he has been quietly developing into a solid player out in Denver the last two years. He may turn out to be completely undeserving of being on the list, but he has done a fine job getting on the glass and doing a lot of the defensive dirty work for the Nuggets, and shows Ben Wallace type skills. He is an undersized interior player, but very strong, with long arms, and excellent ups. Denver has a lot of young Fs on the roster with Nene, Carmello, ‘Skeeta’, Rodney White, and Marcus Camby, and with more pressing needs for a true C and on the perimeter, Harvey may be the odd man out. He will likely go somewhere for the low level exemption, and at that cheap salary, every team in the league has the opportunity to pick him up. He would also be best served heading back East where there are fewer good players with size to bang against, and Harvey can make a bigger impact. He would seem to fit well as a low budget option for Miami, Orlando, the cash-strapped Mavericks, or Atlanta, among others, and could come out as one of the steals of the summer. 

20. Jason Terry (26) RFA QO -- JT is a lightning quick ball-handler who has yet to find his true position, PG/SG. But he did make solid progress this past season cutting down on turnovers and increasing his assists, but he’s still not the type one would want setting up your offense. He is a capable scorer with a solid jumper, yet too small to defend most SGs, and would need a big point next to him. Atlanta gave him a qualifying offer, and drafted Boris Diaw in the first round in an apparent attempt to find the tall, defensive focused player he’d need playing next to him in the backcourt. JT should end up playing for the Hawks this coming season, but the team will be more than willing to listen to offers for their big four including him, Glenn Robinson, Theo Ratliff, or Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Terry could use next year to launch himslef into one of the growing number of quality point guards who are seemingly more scorer than distributor. If JT can have a big year this season, he can be one of the more sought after players in next summer’s free agent class, or he can show little more than he has, and be no more desired than he is now.

21. Kenny Thomas (26) RFA --The tweener F may have played too well during the playoffs for Philadelphia to let him leave after being brought over in a midseason trade, especially considering he’s a restricted FA and they can match any offer. The former New Mexico star gave more production than the higher profile Keith Van Horn did since coming over from Houston during the season. He works hard on the glass, and while a little weak to bang on the blocks, and a little slow to play on the wings, he is a solid player who can score and get rebounds. He may be best coming off the bench, but the Sixers don’t have anyone right now that deserves to start over him. He should get a few offers, and could easily be a great role player for a real championship contender, but is unlikely to go elsewhere over the off-season.

22. PJ Brown (34) UFA -- Like Malone and Payton, Brown would rank a lot higher for the short term. Brown is getting up there in years at 34, and doesn’t have much left on what has been an underappreciated and very solid career. It would be a bad sign if New Orleans let him go, as he is a Louisiana native, and would be another productive Hornet allowed to walk away by George Shinn. PJ will get offers from all over and deserves to be one of the most desirable players this summer, as he’d be a great addition to any team in the league. He fits perfectly into the veteran defensive minded PF mold that the Lakers would love to add next to Shaq. Dallas is in dire need of someone who can rebound and defend in the post as well as Brown, and appears to fit this team a lot better than Karl Malone does. Orlando also has no one with PJ’s capabilities on the roster. But at 34, and wont bring in big money, just that mid level exemption most free agents are looking at, but he will be sought after by a lot of teams and could easily be on his way out of the Bayou. 

23. Stephen Jackson (25) UFA -- Like Speedy, he made some money thanks to a solid showing during the playoffs. He proved himself to be capable as a role player for a champion, similar to Rick Fox, and is one of the many champion Spurs now on the open market. San Antonio is obviously not that interested in ripping apart a winner, and would love to be able to retain the former McDonald’s All-American journeyman, but will someone come in with a higher bid? Several teams are in need of another player to help on the wings, and could come in with a significant offer, as Boston, Denver, Minnesota and Utah come to mind, but here’s guessing that none of them will come in with more money than the Spurs would be willing to match, and Jackson stays where he has fit so well, playing the wing slot opposite Manu Ginobili for a while.
 
24. Walter McCarty (29) UFA -- "I love Waltuh" has developed into a solid role player for the Celtics since coming over from the Knicks. The former Kentucky center has adapted well to the combo F slot off the bench. He can step outside and hit the three, and is long enough to be a factor on the glass and defensively. He’s plays a game similar to another former SEC star, Robert Horry, but is younger, yet not quite the clutch performer. But he can be a valuable addition on any contender's bench, and should have a couple of offers on the table should he want to leave Beantown. The thing is, with former teammates Antoine Walker and Tony Delk, who all won a national championship together, he may not want to leave, and he has been valuable enough off the bench that Boston is not likely to let him go. He will likely resign with the C’s. 
 
25.Scottie Pippen (38) UFA -- As one of the best defenders to ever play in the NBA, Scottie will still get a few offers despite his increasing age, and continually decreasing production. Unlike Malone, Pippen has always been a player that uses his great athleticism and leaping ability to be succesful. He’s being pursued by former teammates to be a mentor in Chicago, but everyone saw how well that worked out in Portland. Pip still has the skills to be a contributor for a winner, but has never been one to be counted on as a leader on or off the court. He’s probably best served making a few more runs for rings (at least he'd have something to hold over MJ) with his former coach in LA, being the big G setting up the triangle Phil had with Ron Harper, and helping in an area LA dropped off severely in during their non-championship season, overall team defense. He fits in too well with the rebuilding/reloading project the Lakers are undergoing to end up elsewhere. 

Notable omissions:

• Jerome Moiso (25)
  
• Robert Horry (33)
  
• Darrell Armostrong (35)
  
• Rafer Alston (27)
  
• Predrag Drobnjak (28)
• Eric Piatkowski (33)
• Travis Best (31)
• Jim Jackson (33)
• Dion Glover (25)
• Jumaine Jones (24)
• Antonio Daniels (28)
• Lucious Harris (33)
• Earl Boykins (27)
• Kenny Anderson (33)
• Jon Barry (34)
• Tyronn Lue (26)
• Derrick Coleman (36)
• Smush Parker (22)
• Gary Trent (29)
• Brian Skinner (27)
• Calbert Cheaney (32)
• Reggie Evans (23)
• Scott Padgett (27)
• Bryon Russell (33)
• Erick Strickland (30)
• Samaki Walker (27)
• Darvin Ham (30)