2007 Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects
By John Sickels
Posted on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 02:16:37 PM CST

2007 Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects

  1. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Grade A- (I really like him as a hitter)
  2. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Grade A- (terrific all-around young pitcher)
  3. James Loney, 1B, Grade B+ (right on the border of A-)
  4. Scott Elbert, LHP, B+ (great arm but command an issue)
  5. Chin-Lung Hu, SS, B (awesome defensive player with a bat that could develop further)
  6. Jonathan Meloan, RHP, B (a personal favorite)
  7. Blake DeWitt, 2B, B- (needs to break through in '07 to maintain status)
  8. Preston Mattingly, INF-OF, B- (position a question but has promising tools and bloodlines)
  9. Josh Bell, 3B, C+ (intriguing power bat, breakthrough candidate)
  10. Ivan DeJesus, SS, C+  (good glove, bat has some promise)
  11. Cory Dunlap, 1B, C+ (looks blocked positionally but a nice bat)
  12. Tony Abreu, 2B, C+ (Triple-A numbers should be interesting)
  13. Delwyn Young, OF, C+ (needs a change of scenery)
  14. Kyle Orr, 1B, C+ (lots of power potential)
  15. Greg Miller, LHP, C (can he stay healthy?)
  16. Bryan Morris, RHP, C (would be B/B+ if not for Tommy John)
  17. Eric Stults, LHP, C (he survived Las Vegas)
  18. Brian Akin, RHP, C (interesting relief candidate)
  19. B.J. LaMura, RHP, C (interesting relief candidate)
  20. Mark Alexander, RHP, C (interesting relief candidate)

Others of Note: Matt Berezay, OF; Zach Hammes, RHP; Casey Hoorelbeke, RHP; Eric Hull, RHP; Bridger Hunt, OF; Stephen Johnson, RHP; Brent Leach, LHP; Andrew Locke, OF; James McDonald, RHP; Justin Orenduff, RHP; Xavier Paul, OF; Anthony Raglani, OF: Ryan Rogowski, OF.

The Dodgers in One Sentence: this system has thinned out a lot due to major league graduations, but they've shown the ability to recharge quickly.

As usual the Grade C guys are interchangeable depending on what you like to emphasize. The Dodgers like to sign toolsy and projectable guys from Latin America traditionally, and someone new will emerge soon enough.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.


Display:

Orenduff

Anybody see any recent news on his recovery?

by natsfan2005 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 02:25:41 PM CST


Loney a B+/borderline A-?

I think John has missed the boat on this one, as have most other publications. Loney really didnt get much better than last year's season at AA, he just got more lucky.  A 404 babip is not sustainable, even giving loney credit for a higher than average babip because he is supposed to be a great average hitter, doesnt give him a 404 babip.  Normalize his numbers to a sustainable babip and his numbers take a big hit to below the 900 ops level. Then there is the little problem of park effects.  Loney played in one of the best hitters parks in a hitters league.  Adjusting for park differences takes his obp down 20 and his slg down another 20 points.

Essentially when you correct for luck and park factor, you are left with a 800-830 OPS 1B. It's a slight improvement over last year's numbers, but not much of one.  Loney is still projecting to be a good defense avg hitting 1B with mediocre obp/slg abiltiies.  That's not a B+ prospect to me.  I know scouts love this guy, but as a stats person I really wonder if John just got overworked and missed this.  

by jspearlj1 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 06:49:28 AM CST
[ Parent ]


Grades...

not only reflect a player's ceiling, but also the likelihood of them reaching it. I personally think Loney is one of the best bets in all the minors to reach his ceiling. It may be nothing more than a Sean Casey/Mark Grace type ceiling, but I think he reaches it.

by Boxkutter on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 07:03:27 AM CST
[ Parent ]


agreed, however...

How is a 820 OPS 1B with above average defense a B+/A- player? That's the epitome of an average regular considering 1B last year hit for an 840 OPS.  If average in school is a C, how does being very likely to reach your ceiling shoot you up to a B+? I understand giving him a higher grade since he is a great bet to be an average 1B, and there is value to that, but B+?  

BTW: Great job so far with the lists, I appreciate all the work you've done on them so far!

by jspearlj1 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 07:34:07 AM CST
[ Parent ]


Big hit

from a .972 OPS to .800-.830?  That's a lot of a correction to attribute to luck and park factors.  I think part of the excitement is how well he did once he was called up in August: .323/.373/.726 in 62 AB's.  Sure it's a small sample size, but it seemed to enforce the thought that something had clicked this year at AAA.

by overkill94 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 10:06:12 AM CST
[ Parent ]


whoops...

I screwed up, I meant to say that his numbers with around a 350 babip (which is sustainable for really good avg hitters) would have brought his numbers down to around a 930 OPS (gross estimates here) and with the park factors also going against him would have brought him down to around a 890 or so OPS player.  The thing is, Loney just had a season in which he had inordinate amount of luck and in a hitter's paradise.  He will be going to a place which suppresses most offensive categories, sans the one in which he doesn't use much (HR).  I can see how Loney will be a high babip hitter, however I dont care how you frame the math, there is no way in which his 404 babip is anywhere close to sustainable.

by jspearlj1 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 05:38:48 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Hmmm....

...can't an increase in BABIP be due to things besides luck?  Don't some hitters have consistently above-avg BABIPs?

For example, what if he was hitting a lot more balls that are tend to fall in for hits more often - such as line drives?  Wouldn;t surprise me much if a developing hitter increased his line drive rate over time.  

 

by siddfynch on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 10:25:04 AM CST
[ Parent ]


BABIP for HITTERS

... there isn't a consensus that BABIP means much for hitters.  I don't need BABIP to tell me that Loney isn't going to hit .380 every year.  BTW, Loney was underrated in AA as he was in a pitchers park in a pitchers league; he hit significantly better on the road in '05.

Loney has the core skills that lead to good average, line-drive stroke, excellent contact skills, ect.  Watch a couple of his AB's and you can see how he hit .380, or for that matter .290 in Jacksonville.  He works the count, is rarely fooled, and always hits the ball hard ... kind a like a more disciplined Nomar.  But he probalby won't hit for enough power next year to warrent starting at 1B in the Dodgers lineup.  Some say he'll never generate enough power (those that think the past tells us something about the future) and others (read: scouts) think he can and will.

by sanchez101 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 10:56:28 AM CST
[ Parent ]


All luck? BaLONEY!

Loney has to be one of the more puzzling prospects in all of baseball.  He's highly touted for years, has a few fringe-average seasons, then seemingly breaks out last year although there does seem to be some luck involved.  He's touted as a line drive hitter, yet only 12% of his hits went for LD's in the majors.  He's a guy who is supposed to not have any power, but then he hits for an IsoP of .275 in limited time in the majors.  He wasn't even close to that in Las Vegas, which is one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball.  So who is this guy?

Well one thing I think is certain is that he is improving.  Sure, he had a very high BABIP last year in AAA, but how many players make the jump to AAA and cut their strike out rate in half?  He went from striking out in 15% of his pa's in 2005 to 8% in 2006.  That's incredible improvement by anyone's standards and something that should be seriously considered when looking at his breakout performance.  

Let's move on to his BABIP last year.  Yes, .404 is unsustainable, but I think it is pretty silly to think that all of that was purely luck.  Line Drive percentage has been shown to be strongly correlated with BABIP so any time you look at extremely high BABIP it is important to also look at LD%.  I think the rough estimate of the correlation is that BABIP is equal to LD% + .100 for the AL and + .110 for the NL.  So a guy like Geoff Jenkins who has what seems to be a pretty high BABIP of .337 is actually right around where we would guess he would be given his LD% of 22%.  So let's turn to James Loney.  I mentioned before that he had a very low percentage of line drives in the majors, but he was quite the opposite in the minors.  Last year, 25.2% of the balls that he hit in play went for Line Drives.  Using the the formula we could guess that if this were in the NL, his BABIP would be around .360 to .370.  But the average BABIP in the minors is considerably higher in the minors due to weaker defense and in the PCL it's even higher to do the high scoring atmosphere of the league.  I found the league average BABIP was .318 compared to the ML average which is usually around .300.  This isn't exactly scientific, but if you add the .018 to Loney's expected BABIP you get we get an expected BABIP between .378 and .388.  If we look even further at the BABIP for the 51's as a team we find that they averaged a BABIP of .331.  Obviously Loney's .404 is affecting this to a certain degree but I think we can agree that the BABIP in Las Vegas is higher than the league average because of the nature of the park, so let's tack on around .005 to his expected BABIP bringing his totals up to .385 to .395.  So after looking at Loney's LD% and normalizing his expected BABIP to the environment that he was hitting in, I really don't think that his BABIP of .404 was based all that much on luck.  Given the context in which he was hitting his BABIP is actually pretty close to what we could expect given his LD% meaning that his luck was roughly average for the league meaning we can just compare his play to others in the league after adjusting for park factors and what I come up with is that he was one of the best offensive players in AAA last year.

His major league performance is a little bit more difficult to judge mostly because he was a completely different hitter in almost every way imaginable.  I really don't know if his major league numbers should just be thrown out mainly because they were so incredible, especially in August and September when he hit a modest .334 .376 .725, but if last year was any indication, what we're going to have is a guy that doesn't strike out and who hits a ton of line drives which seems to suggest a very high average hitter which is what the scouts have been saying for years, we just have the stats to back it up now.  

by neutralluke on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 01:48:28 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Re:

I do think you gotta take Loney's MLB power numbers with a grain of salt. Small sample size and half of his production (2HR, 9RBI) was achieved in one game at Coors in which 30 total runs were scored. His extra base hits came off Kim, Mesa and some dude named 'Hampson'.

http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20060928&content_id=1687406&vkey=wrapup2005& amp;fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

by natsfan2005 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 02:13:02 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Ehh

I think it was pretty clear that Coor's Field wasn't Coors field last year so that argument doesn't really hold much water.  Even if you turn those homers into singles he still slugged .500 and had an IsoP of well over .200 (.216) and in a limited number of DWL ab's (40), his Isop is .200.  Yeah he's not hitting for any average but just looking at his stats it seems that he's working on his plate discipline.  One thing that does look a little flukish is the amount of triples he had last year.  At the pace he was at he would have 25 triples after 500 ab's so that clearly isn't sustainable, but even if you change those to doubles he still would have slugged .520.  

As I said before it's really tough to see what kind of player Loney is going to be given the extreme fluctuations in his track record so far.  Personally I think he's going to be much closer to the player he was in Las Vegas than his the one he was in Los Angeles but I certainly don't think an IsoP of .180-.200 would be surprising at all.

by neutralluke on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 05:20:51 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Dude....

you have got way too much time on your hands. But it was an interesting read.

by Boxkutter on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 02:26:53 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Elbert

Should be a A-. Although command maybe somewhat of a concern. His stuff is just too good to give him a B+. He is deffinatly better then Lofgren who you gave a A- too. After seeing this ranking I am even further convinced that Lofgren should get a B hes not in the same class as Adenhart, Elbert etc. He's a notch below then. I still believe based on potential Adenhart and Elbert should both be A-. I would then consider Lofgren as aB+ with the Patton's of the world.

by nate050904 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 02:45:21 PM CST


Scott Elbert has no question the stuff

to be an ace in this league for years to come, like alot of the first round pitchers in 2004. Anyway my question is when will he make his debut?

by NYYLover1000 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:11:34 PM CST
[ Parent ]


probably 2008

I think the dodgers will let him repeat AA next year and depending on how he progresses with his control, they might leave him there for the whole year and then beginning of 2008 in AAA and midseason callup, a la chad billingsley the last two years.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:25:25 PM CST
[ Parent ]


i think

depending on how he starts the year off, and how badly the dodgers need pitching, he COULD debut in 2007, but it would likely be in the same role that Zumaya and Papelbon did- in relief. I dont think you will many if any starts out of him until at least 2008, but I think hell make be in their rotation at the beginning of the year

by rangersfan24 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:28:46 PM CST
[ Parent ]


I really think...

Greg Miller should at least a B-. He's been a little wild but as a reliever, he appears one of the best LHP RPs in the minors and his stuff should translate excellently to the majors. His injury history is quite lessened due to him pitching out of the bullpen. Now, I'm not sure if they plan on putting him back in the rotation at the major league league level but as a RP with his size and stuff he should be an elite MR.

by Havok1517 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 03:27:31 PM CST


Miller

His command is more of a concern to me than the injury history. He could be the most interesting of all the Dodger prospects.

by count sutton on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 03:29:40 PM CST
[ Parent ]


miller

His homerun ratio was extremely good with only one allowed in 59.2IP last year. His career homerun rat per 9/IP is .3 which puts him in elite status in that catagorey.

Miller could become the Hamels of 2007; top lefty prospect comes back with vengence.

by npurcell on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 02:49:05 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Prospects

I think that Elbert should be ranked above Loney, but the B+ grades both seem good to me.

I would raise Abreu to a B- and position him behind Mattingly. Bell is another guy I would consider as a B-.

by count sutton on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 03:28:28 PM CST


Kershaw?

How good is this young kid going to be?  He had great numbers last season, but will it continue?  Is he a future ace?  

by jrbro on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 03:31:31 PM CST


Upside

Kershaw has the ability to be a future ace, yes. He's a lefty with good mechanics, a big body, a 91-94 moving fastball, and a plus curveball. He's got above average command, and groundball ability at only 18.

IMO he was the best HS pitcher in this years draft, and one of the better ones to be drafted since Hamels/Kazmir.

He's got one of the best upsides in all the minor leagues, and his makeup is off the charts. I really don't think I've ever been as high on a LHP in the draft since yea...Hamels/Kazmir.

by LeftyAce88 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 08:00:53 AM CST
[ Parent ]


tough crowd

#2 prospect in the pioneer league by BA gets a C+? i think thats a bit low.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 06:33:17 PM CST


personal top ten

when i was doing my grading the other day, my top 10 went like this:

2    Andy Laroche    3b    A-
3    Clayton Kershaw    LHP    A-
4    Scott Elbert    LHP    B+
5    James Loney    1b    B+
6    Jonathan Meloan    RHP    B+
7    Josh Bell    3b    B+
8    Tony Abreu    2b    B
9    Blake Dewitt    2b/3b    B
10    Greg Miller    LHP    B
11    Preston Mattingly    inf/of    B

Meloan is a huge sleeper pick and at the worst, looks to be a dominating set up man. Since turning pro, his curveball has morphed into a "spiking monster" (from goldstein at BP) and he has added velocity to his fastball. The strikeout rate at all 3 spots and AFL prove this. Personally, i want him to go back to starting next year but I think the dodgers are fantasizing about a meloan/broxton late inning tandem. The way he jumped 3 levels with his ridiculous K rate, has to be a B+ in my book. And his 2007 season will only be as a 22 yr old as well.

Josh Bell also seems to be a bit underrated here due to being in the lower minors. Dodger officials call Bell Kemp lite for his power potential and his switch hitting skills are also a plus. Last year in the GCL and this year as a 19yr old in the pioneer league, he showed good average, on base and walking skills. his power blossomed this year but it was at the expense of strikeouts. The strikouts might give pause for a bit of concern, but the tools are definately there to improve drastically. This isnt on the same level as last year when John gave Kemp a C+ but Bell has similar hitting potential and the scouting reports should at least give him a B.

On your list, I think Hu and cory dunlap are both too high. Dunlap's weight is never not going to be a problem. If he saw pictures of him this past year, he looked easily to be 280lb+. His patience and power was nice this year, but his numbers still are not going to cut it for a fat first basemen with a fringe glove and repeating a league. Hu's slap approach really stalled in AA and abreu has surpassed him with the bat. Ive read some reports that Abreu's glove has so significantly increased to the point where he can play a reliable shortstop now. While Hu's defense is dazzling, I dont think that is worth a straight B grade.

As for Greg Miller, I think my grade might be the hopeful dodger fan in me not letting go of a top prospect. Although last year there were alot of positives
1-he stayed healthy all year
2-his extreme groundball ratio
3-his extremely low homerun ratio
4-reports had his stuff at full strength and pluses in multiple pitches

of course the command is worrisome but before the injury he had very good command for a year pitcher. Dodger officials are toying with the idea of stretching him out as a starter again next year after they saw how well Kuo did this past year. He will only be 22 next year so Miller still has plenty of time.

Mattingly is going to be one of the most intriging players in the dodgers system next year. In high school, he never played baseball full time- football star in the fall, basketball star in the winter and then baseball in the summer. So when he was able to hit .290 in his first summer of professional ball in the GCL that really intrigued me. His excellent athleticism, hand eye coordination, bat speed and bloodlines cant be discounted. I think all of those qualities make up for his "rawness". His position is undefined but I think he is going to end up in CF, he has the speed to play there. I hope they make the switch as soon as next year so it can give him plenty of time to adjust to the position. The B- grade is probably fine but if you want to go on projection, there are good arguments to make Mattingly a straight B.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 07:04:31 PM CST


seriously?

You'd give Josh Bell the same grade as Loney? I think Bell is a "B-minus".

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

by TINSTAAPP on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:00:31 PM CST
[ Parent ]


i did

and it was a mistake. should have been a B. Bell is a B for me so that was an error.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:04:55 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Partial agreement

I agree that Bell is a bit underrated, but I think a B+ is a bit high for a guy who had a very good, but not great year in rookie ball as a 19yo.  Just going by the stats I'd probably give him a healthy B-.

Hu is definitely waaay too high on here as well.  He might crack the top-10 with his defense, but a .660 OPS in AA as a 22yo is more of a C+ than a B.  Abreu should be just ahead of him with a B-.

by overkill94 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:34:42 PM CST
[ Parent ]


i agree

B+ is too high, it should have been a B. I still like him alot and a switch hitter with that power potential is a very nice bat to have in the lower system.

Although I dont think hes going to be able to stay at 3b.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:42:09 PM CST
[ Parent ]


some more thoughts

I think there are enough intriging positional prospects in the low minors that can fill thw 17-20 spots instead of potential middle reliever pitchers.

players like Carlos Santana, Bridger Hunt, andrew locke, russell mitchell, and juan apodaca are potential players to make a name for themselves next year.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 07:10:57 PM CST


kemp question

hes technically not a prospect but by the spirit of prospecting, i think kemp is still very much a prospect.

that said, where would be have rated on the list and with what grade? discussion open to everyone, not just directed at John.

by npurcell on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 08:33:16 PM CST


re

A- and #1

by mckeeno on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 10:06:54 PM CST
[ Parent ]


I'm not sure

I could give a guy that has proven he can't hit a breaking ball an A-, thats a big deal. B+ right now for me though if he refines his plate discipline A/A- easy.

by Havok1517 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 10:28:09 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Kemp

I know that the book is almost done, but I'm very much hoping that John includes a Kemp comment in the group of guys that lost rookie status but are still very much prospects.

Personally, I think he has a fascinating combination of potential All-Star talent with big weaknesses, and I would love to hear what John has to think about his ability to reach his ceiling.

by Sparky133 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 08:50:38 AM CST
[ Parent ]


At what level has he proven that?

I think u have to be careful when saying "he cant..." if you are accounting for his MLB debut this season.. because he certainly hasnt had trouble hitting them in the minors at any level.  A lot of hitters struggle with major league pitching their first few times up.. the thing that hurts kemp is he was killing them early in his callup, so people dont see it as a rookie trying to figure things out they see it as a rookie exposed... but thats unfair at this point (IMO)

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:20:24 PM CST


Alright

I should have stated that he's proven that he has had problems hitting big league offspeed stuff because he was sure exploited once pitchers found that he was usually sitting on the fastball and was clueless against a MLB curve. He may not have the same problem in the minors but he looked silly and often times helpless before he demotion. Until he proves he can consistently hit major league offspeed stuff combinded with a a good fastball at the major league level he's still a B+ in my mind.  

by Havok1517 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:26:26 PM CST
[ Parent ]


well

if you held everybody to that standard, wouldn't that logically mean there's no such thing as an A prospect?  alex gordon hasn't proved that either.  none of these guys ever prove they can hit big league pitching until after they burn their rookie time.  

by wily mo on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:52:46 PM CST
[ Parent ]


now was that so hard?

:-)

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:32:10 PM CST


Bryan morris had Tommy John surgery?

I cant find anything about this on baseball america's website, and in their writeup of him as the #1 prospect in the pioneer league it doesnt mention it, that was Sept. 21st.. so it must of happened recently?

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:34:08 PM CST


re: TJ

Morris definitely had TJ. I've seen it mentioned numerous places. Most recently in Kevin Goldstein's Dodger top 10 rankings at BP.

by natsfan2005 on Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 11:46:50 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Hasn't been brought up...

but why is there a picture of a St. Louis player for the Dodgers list? I see the last name Rickey, is that Branch Rickey? If so, I guess I can understand why his picture is up. But, I had to ask...

by Boxkutter on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 07:01:21 AM CST


Yeah

That is Branch Rickey on the baseball card.  He was a manager in St. Louis for a few years.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 10:04:45 AM CST
[ Parent ]


good james loney read

this was published over at hardballtimes at the beginning of december and its a good analysis of james loney.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-closer-look-at-james-loney/

the author, chris constancio has a pretty favorable view of loney's future.

In this year's Hardball Times Annual, I project that Loney has a 31% of becoming a star by age 25. What that means is that over 30% of players with comparable performances at Loney's age went on to achieve offensive production that would qualify them as one of the top-third of all regular first basemen in baseball during their prime. While most of his comparison players were only average big league first basemen or worse, a substantial minority went on to develop the kind of power that would make Loney a star in the major leagues.

by npurcell on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 04:28:09 PM CST


Lucas May

What is everyone's opinions on Lucas May?  He was drafted back in 2003 and was said to have good potential with the bat(power wise) although had problems at SS and most times his arm was too strong for the position.
He has been moved to the outfield and repeated Low A, but at least had a decent 2006 season.
Still needs to improve the BB:K ratio, but the power is there.

by Cardinals31 on Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 09:13:01 PM CST


Loney...

to me he looks like a future Casey/Grace type.

Not bad, but I think he's been one of the minors most overrated prospects for years.

by LeftyAce88 on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 02:21:21 AM CST


for years?

John gave him a C+ last year. I hardly think that's overrating him.

I'm not sure how that's any different than Conor Jackson. I don't know your thoughts on him, but Jackson hit a total of 31 hr in over 1,000 minor league ABs but still got an A grade. He displayed dismal power for a 1B, so I am not sure how Loney is overrated in comparison to Jackson.

by count sutton on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 07:29:20 AM CST
[ Parent ]


also last year

Loney did not even rank in the Dodgers top 10 prospects last season for Baseball America.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/dodgers.html

by count sutton on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 07:32:04 AM CST
[ Parent ]


Well he's...

always been hyped up by Dodger fans.

One guy used to say he was the next Todd Helton.

by LeftyAce88 on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 12:05:45 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Orenduff

"Anybody see any recent news on Orenduff's recovery?"

I posted this earlier in the diary but somehow I bizarrely just got comments about Loney's BABIP attached to this question... Seriously, do any Dodger's prospect hounds have any update on Orenduff? Thanks.
 

by natsfan2005 on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 08:44:07 AM CST


orenduff thoughts

his shoulder situation is a bit murky considering when he did have the surgery, it was "exploratory" surgery and i dont remember what exactly was wrong with him. Apparently though they are going to try to get him ready for ST and go from there. if he is healthy, i think he'll probably start in AA again and go from there.

Even before the surgery, my projection for him wasnt really more then a solid middle of the rotation innings eater. He has a great pitchers build- long, slender, loose and a great fluid delivery; kind of like verlander but his arm motion velocity is considerbly less. He still needs to work on his change up though as a third solid offering. After the surgery, its hard to project him though because of the unknown surrounding his health. Unless he totally dominates next year, i dont see him getting a chance to pitch on the big league club, especially when Colletti is totally  paranoid about never having enough depth and we currently have 2 billion starting pitchers in front of him.

by npurcell on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 01:09:13 PM CST
[ Parent ]


Denker

I know that other sites were very high on Denker, but he struggling this season.  Denker isn't even mentioned by John.  

Does this guy have a future?

by gunkdog on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 11:15:11 AM CST


Denker

He struggled too much at the plate at Vero Beach to retain prospect status. It does not really make sense considering his success at Columbus, but one wonders if the lack of adjustment is a sign of things to come.

I also read somewhere that there were concerns about his defense and he may have to move from 2B (I cannot remember so I apologize for no link on that).

by count sutton on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 11:23:36 AM CST
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Columbus to Vero Beach

Columbus:  315 PA, 11 2B, 11 HR, 65/37 BB/K ratio

Vero Beach: 215 PA, 6 2B, 5 HR, 24/36 BB/K ratio

Did anybody hear about an injury or something? The difference in numbers is somewhat surprising . . . maybe he didn't find his slump buster in Vero Beach.

by gunkdog on Thu Dec 28, 2006 at 02:16:47 PM CST
[ Parent ]


sequence

didn't he start out in vero, and then move down to columbus?  at any rate i never heard anything about an injury.  

by wily mo on Tue Jan 02, 2007 at 03:25:13 PM CST
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