Knowing When to Quit

Someone here asked a great question about success and failure: How do you know when to quit?

As I said in my earlier post, I’ve failed at 9 out of 10 business adventures. I have an actual running list of my successes (3 notables) and failures (30). On my list of successes, I’m excluding such things as the Dilbert.com web site, my speaking career, and the millions of Dilbert calendars because they are a direct result of my one success with Dilbert.

When I was a commercial lender at a bank, we often heard the rule-of-thumb that 1 out of 10 businesses succeed. I doubt there was much science behind that number, but it seems about right if you exclude franchise businesses that almost always make money.

My failures were mostly things for which I was entirely qualified. What killed me each time was bad luck, usually in the form of bad timing. For example, my best ever idea was patentable, and would have been worth more than anything I’ve done with Dilbert. I know it was patentable because someone patented it just ahead of me.

My two corporate careers – banking and telecommunications – also suffered from bad timing. I left the bank because my boss told me that she couldn’t promote a white male. At the time, the media was giving the company a lot of bad press about having no diversity in management. I gave up on my telecommunications job when my boss at Pacific Bell later told me exactly the same thing. It was an awkward little window in history where reverse discrimination got out of control. Had I been born five years earlier or five years later I would have missed that window. I’m not complaining, since that’s the disgruntlement that led directly to Dilbert. I’m just providing it as context. Luck – typically in the form of timing – is usually the dominant factor in success. You usually have to try a bunch of things before luck has an opportunity to find you.

So how do you know when to bail out of a losing idea?

I heard a useful rule about predicting success during my (failed) attempt at creating a hit Dilbert animated TV show. While watching the Dilbert pilot being tested on a focus group, an experienced executive explained to me the most non-intuitive way to predict success. Since then I’ve observed it to be true a number of times. It goes like this:

If everyone exposed to a product likes it, the product will not succeed.

Think about that for a minute before I explain why everyone liking something predicts failure. If you get this answer right, I’m guessing that you are already successful yourself. Tell me in the comments if I’m right about that.

The reason that a product “everyone likes” will fail is because no one “loves” it. The only thing that predicts success is passion, even if only 10% of the consumers have it. For example, I’m willing to bet that when the TV show Baywatch was tested, 90% of the people rolled their eyes and gave it a thumbs down. But I’ll bet 10% of the test audience had tents in their pants. Bingo.

Dilbert was the same way. From the very beginning, the vast majority of people who saw it didn’t care for it. But 10% who saw it not only liked it, they cut it out and mailed it to friends. They talked about it. They hung it on walls. They were passionate about it. Before the first Dilbert reprint book was sold, I heard stories of people making their own Dilbert books from newspaper clippings. Bingo.

So if you invent a new type of umbrella, for example, and every person who sees it says “that is clearly better than all other umbrellas on the market” then you have nothing. Walk away. But if someone who barely knows you demands to buy six of them for everyone in his family, and doesn’t first ask the price, and is willing to drive to your house to pick them up, then you might have something. Great ideas catch on immediately, and passionately, at least with the early adopters.

If you plan to try 10 things, knowing 9 will fail, do things that won’t kill you in the process. I prefer challenges where the worst case scenario is that I’m embarrassed or tired, as opposed to bankrupt or dead. And I prefer challenges where the upside potential is unlimited even if unlikely. But those are personal choices. I find it easy to shrug off failure, so failing 90% of the time works for me. Your mileage may vary.

Comments

[wolis]

Interesting..

This means that my www.creativeobjectworld.com has succeeded.

[Jason Newton]

What is the opposite of love?

If you said, "duh, hate", you're wrong. The opposite of love is indifference. That's why this statement:

"The reason that a product “everyone likes” will fail is because no one “loves” it. The only thing that predicts success is passion, even if only 10% of the consumers have it.

Passion is the key - love and hate are more similar that different. If everyone "likes" the product or message, they are really saying they are indifferent to it.

The same is true about hit songs - a song that 10 percent love and 10% hate is the #1 best seller.

Jason

[Stephen Koller]

If everyone likes a product it will be successful. If there are a few people who love it and tell others about it, that does not mean a majority of the people will also love it. Therefore it might not be successful.

[Joe]

This post just brought to my mind the many 'cult classics' in the field of movie entertainment. My favorite movie is one called 'The Boondock Saints'. When it first was made it came out right after Columbine and was immediately black-listed due to the main character's trenchcoats and the general level of violence in it. At the time a grand total of zero move theaters showed it and it went straight to video. But eventually a few people saw it and LOVED it and gave it their friends to watch and now the movie has an insanely devoted following of fans. Part of this is because the movie is just so freaking good, I literally have never met anyone who has seen it that hasn't liked it. Oh, I'm sure they're out there, but out of the 40 or 50 people I've talked to the movie about (I work at a video store) I've never met one, male or female. Obviously the movie industry leaders at the time didn't like the movie, but it was those people that loved it that has made the movie a success. Someone asks me, "So what's a good movie" and I immediately ask if they've seen 'The Boondock Saints' (that's how I came to watch it in the first place myself was on a coworker's endorsement). And believe me, my level of passion for the movie pales in comparison to many.

Just an example of where everyone 'liking' a product is not nearly as important as those who 'love' it. (Although I realize I've given an example where everyone I know doesn't like it, they love it.)

[BigMediaBlog]

I freely admit that I loved the cartoon, especially Larry Miller and the Elbonians. The problem might have been that it was on (IIRC) UPN, which isn't exactly ABC/NBC/CBS. I give it one big tent straight up.

[Neo]

Insightful article.

Thanks..will help a lot.

Failure? Whats that....I have heard of only Lessons

[Biscuit]

Thanks for that great post Scott!

A small slightly anal correction for those who corrected the maths of the posts, at this stage there may of been 30 failures and 3 successes, but at the time of the last success if may of actually been 3 successes 27 failures, its just that Mr Adams is still trying those crazy ideas of his (good luck with getting the Nobel peace and economic prize!)

[aiar]

Thank you for this post. You have helped me realise that maybe my ideas aren't so far-fetched and unreasonable after all. Now I just have to make sure this is my 1 in 10 ;)

[Pam]

I got the answer right, but I really can't say whether or not I'm successful. I’m only a year out of college, but I have my engineering degree and a position in my field at a very large, successful company, so I guess that’s success so far, right?

[Jon]

The moral of the story seems to be that, if 9 out of 10 attempts are unsuccessful, one should simply try as many things as possible - spread enough s**t on a wall, and some will stick, as we say in Yorkshire.

[bubba]

Sounds like when BMW redesigned (Bangled) their cars a few years ago. Their explicit goal was not for everyone to like the car, but for a few tens of thousands to actually purchase the car.

[bryce]

Interesting article, I nver knew you had such a wide array of professions :)

[Cosbert]

Shawn,
Emergence is a well "documented" phenomenon. (That is we know emergence happens) If emergence were well ‘understood’ it would become predictable, and would, therefore, no longer actually be ‘emergent’ but rather ‘systemic’. The FACT that emergence is not ‘understood’ is itself evidence of ‘free will’.

When you hear someone say that there is ‘free will’ you must defend the hypothesis that there is ‘no free will’ as an article of faith. Regardless of how much you ‘understand’ or think you understand about decision making and/or creative thinking, eventually you will fall back to the argument, “we just don’t understand the program/the inputs/the ‘system’ well enough to predict the outcome.”[Emergence] And that makes your belief an ‘act of faith’.

You reject free will, no doubt, because as soon as one accepts free will, that opens up many other possibilities you are unwilling to deal with; right and wrong, good and evil, it even opens the possibility of the ‘divine’ (no, it does not require that you believe in God, it does open it up as a rational possibility). Most importantly it compels you to use judgment, and allows others may judge you. It is not the standard by which you may be judged, nor is it the source of those standards, or even by whom you may be judged, it is the notion of judgment itself you can not tolerate and are thus emotionally compelled to defend the idea that there is no free will, for without free will you are not responsible for choices.

[gr8hands]

Shawn Yarbrough, you being wrong in no way makes me feel "threatened" or "unhappy." I'm pretty used to a significant number of people being wrong -- even in areas where they're supposed to be an expert. It doesn't bother me at all.

You use the correct phrase "emergent phenomena" and yet you miss completely what it is. Your statements that everything is "governed by simple laws of chemistry and physics and therefore so is my consciousness" is not completely accurate.

Taking a non-living example: H2O molecules have totally different properties if they are aligned as ice (they can be transparent as well as quite hard -- enough to block ships, and expands), snow (no longer transparent, no longer hard), water (transparent, but not hard), steam (transparent, not hard), or other states in between.

Another non-living example: two particles have gravitational attraction to each other, but extremely weak. Yet on a macro scale, say a black hole, the group has sufficient gravitational attraction to prevent even light from escaping.

Physical properties clearly change from the subatomic to the microscopic to the macroscopic to the galactic. This is why Newtonian physics isn't sufficient to account for every possible size/state of matter -- and thus far, nothing else is either.

It is inaccurate to ssurmise, therefore, that the microscopic electro-chemical reactions of each individual cell component completely govern the macroscopic human body. There is no proof of that, and your comments, while amusing (since they only appear to have some science behind them), are not proof.

And as I've said before, since you're making the extraordinary claim, you are required to provide extraordinary proof. You have failed at this. Which does not make me happy, because I wasn't unhappy before. I am pretty used to the failures of others, and the failures I make -- I learn from them and then later succeed.

[Shawn Yarbrough]

gr8hands, it's true that the whole can seem greater than the sum of the parts, but that's an unnecessarily romantic interpretation. Emergent phenomena is a fairly well-understood subject.

Every cell in my brain does it's part to build up my personality. Those cells are governed by simple laws of chemistry and physics and therefore so is my consciousness. You like to feel special about your mind so it threatens you when I say things like "you have no free will" but the reason you feel threatened is because you have basic animal impulses that make you want to defend your sense of self-respect and ego.

You had no choice to write your comment in response to mine, because my comment made you unhappy and you had to try to improve your emotional state. You are a meat robot.

[kL]

I'm close to being a little passionate about dilbert tv series. Is that enough to get another season created?

[gr8hands]

Sorry, Shawn Yarbrough, but your attempts to reduce free will, consciousness and Life to mere electro-chemical reactions simply ignore what is obvious -- that the sum is greater than the parts.

You can reproduce all the electro-chemical reactions in beakers and test tubes, but they are not alive, nor do they have consciousness.

By focusing on the micro level, you are oblivious to the macro level. There is a big difference between one bird and a flock of birds (one bird can't show "flocking patterns" for example). You can try to argue that it's just one bird, replicated again and again -- but you miss out on the dynamic changes that happen when it becomes a flock.

It matters a great deal whether H2O is ice, water or steam (Life as we know it can only exist where there's water -- merely having a bunch of H2O isn't enough, it has to be the right form). You want to breathe? Here's some air. Just be sure the chemistry is fine, because if you just have the Oxygen and Hydrogen together in a different form, you'll get water and drown. But, hey, the chemicals are still the same, right?

A single celled organism is substantially different from a human being -- although at the microscopic level, the individual cells are similar. It's when they join together to be a collective that things change. Like the difference between a microscopic piece of coral and a reef.

A person who is severely retarded still has the same kinds of chemical processes going through their brain as someone who is a genius.

Get away from the microscope and look around you. THAT is where you'll find the evidence of free will, consciousness and life. You're just stuck in a rut of chemistry and physics -- and only understanding part of them, the microscopic parts. Look at the macroscopic view, the big picture.

[still working it out]

Thank you for answering my question.

Please keep making posts on topics like this. I find them extremely interesting.

I am going to think hard about the concept of one success for every ten failures.

A already knew that the difference between someone who is successful and someone who is not is their reaction to failure. An unsuccessful person tries something, fails and stops. A successful person tries something, fails and then tries again having learnt something from the failure.

I had not thought about how many failures you have to have to succeed. I am going to use the ratio of 1 to 10. This will give me some sort of indication of how close I am to a success.

[Shawn Yarbrough]

Free will? Your brain is a complex biological soup inside a monkey skull, governed completely by the laws of chemistry and physics.

Chemical impluses in your brain collide with each other and bounce. This bouncing process is very efficient. The impulses bounce around until all the weaker urges have been beaten into submission, and the last impulse standing is the one you go with.

Next you tell yourself "I made a decision" and "I have free will" but you didn't choose which impulse would be the strongest, not any more than you chose to be born with that annoying gas problem. (Gosh, you're disgusting.) So you have no free will.

If you chose to become a better person, for example, you only had that thought because you *felt* unhappy with yourself and then the urge to be happier overcame everything else in your mind until you made some changes in your life. Your smart parts may have helped with the means (the method you came up with to try to be a better person) but not the end (the desire to be a better person).

That's why Scott got rich with little more than bad drawings and an above-average ability to point out what we already knew in amusing ways. When you read Dilbert you like it, and you can't help liking it. It's totally out of your control. You have no free will. You are slave to Scott's power to entertain you.

[gr8hands]

Patti, you're right. If there is no free will, then there are no accomplishments, no failures, no earning anything, no owing anything, no need for contracts, no need for police/judges/etc., no need for laws, or anything that might indicate the possibility of choice.

In "God's Debris" Scott wrote "The opinions and philosophies expressed by the characters are not my own, except by coincidence in a few spots not worth mentioning. Please don't write me with passionate explanations of why my views are wrong. You won't discover my opinions by reading my fiction." Yet, he clearly is espousing one of the central ideas from the book, namely the lack of free will, which is hardly "not worth mentioning."

Scott has been repeatedly requested, kindly and rudely, by many people on the blog, to provide us with his reasons for believing in such a thing -- with evidence or proof -- but he has ignored all requests, and merely restated his thesis that we "just don't understand." (That last part is the most irritating, because clearly most of us "understand" what he's talking about, we just know it to be wrong, which must infuriate Scott.)

Patti, you're also right that I have a list of talents and accomplishments (I only provided some of the ones directly related to my hands). Through training and hard work, I've developed many of the capabilities of my body and mind to high levels of expertise. Only the jealous have any difficulty with that -- pathetic has-beens or wannabes who can only prop themselves up by tearing down others.

Patti, I'm so glad that you have a good sense of self-esteem! Too many on this blog obviously suffer from adequacy issues, doubt about their manhood, and other intellectual dysfunctions.

Your posts are a breath of fresh air -- even when we disagree. You are able to be cordial without being submissive, interactive without being confrontational, and funny throughout! I'd continue, but there are those who don't know the difference between being a "fan", being appreciative, and being a sychophant. (I've tried to suggest people use a dictionary, a spell checker, some other tools to make them seem less . . . silly on the blog.)

By Scott's lack of belief in free will, there can be no success or failurr -- there is only electro-chemical reaction and physics. Consciousness is an illusion, "Life" (as opposed to a mere bag of chemicals) is an illusion, choice is an illusion, responsibility is an illusion, creativity is an illusion. There is only electro-chemical reaction and physics.

Of course, this is wrong.

[Borjan]

Now that's cool! Sound business advice that actually make sense!

What's more - it doesn't make sense at first glance, but only after awhile. And that's good because business advice that makes sense right away is all but useless: i.e. "Buy low - sell high and you wll always succeed!"

Thanks, Scott.

[greg]

You are right on the money about managing the risk- risk taking is essential, but you don't want to bet the farm on just one or two attempts. A child's first steps are tentative, lurching and end in a fall-but eventually the child walks

[jimbot]

OK Scott, er, cosbert, er whoever-
Since your probably awake right now...

I would like to address the so-called programming of the universe-

Or, lack of free will therein- as some would like to call it-

IF there were such an entity as a "master programmer" who had written the code, as it were, millions of years ago, that would eventually become our universe, or DNA, or you name any one of the impossibly complex algorithms that make up our existence...

IF he had woven the fabric of time and space into an elaborate mosaic of twists and turns...

IF the master programmer were to hit the "escape" or "interrupt" button on his keyboard, he would be able to circumvent the usual laws of time and space, (suspend the code, as it were) and reach through a fissure in the time space continuum...

This is the only way I would be able to explain the miracles I have seen...

It is the feeling you get when you meet someone for the first time, but feel that you have known them before---

It is the unmistakable sense of someone being "back from the future" in your life---

It is the transformation of a life that was heretofore unsalvageable-

It is the Divine Touch of Grace that accomplishes the unimaginable...

It is the shear poetry of a change of circumstances, inexplicably-

Something like what you experienced, Scott- From one day to the next- One day you were laboring unnoticed at some dead end job- The next day, everything had changed- and you knew things would never be the same-

My God is the God of the "suddenlies"---
Suddenly everything has turned around...
Suddenly I was healed---
Suddenly everything is gonna be OK...
Woooo-Hooooo!!!
Everything is gonna be OK!!!

[PATTI]

Patti says:

Gr8hands has quite a list of talents and accomplishments!

Scott, if the assumption is that we have no free will, then Gr8hands did not earn his accomplishments and neither did anyone else. And that includes you.
You were mere puppets/robots and did only what some genius told/programmed you to do. So? If the things that you have succeeded at (or failed at) were not of your choice, how do you take credit for any of your successes or failures?

And if the manipulator has no free will, then who began the chain of manipulation? I believe that it points to one very supreme being.

[Cosbert]

There are 2 things that I (Cosbert) and gr8hands (Tommy Boy) will agree on...
1. We have Free Will
2. Cosbert is NOT gr8hands (and vise-versa)

Tommy, since the topic of this thread is "knowing when to quit" I'll refer you back to the post I directed at Bruce (http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2006/10/knowing_when_to.html#comment-23838830, you were obviously replying to the lower portion of that post when you pedigreed your hands, So we can definitely stick "EGO" in there with "other issues”)

Scott is following your school of logic (when you can’t win, ignore the argument) when it comes to ‘Free Will’. It has become his article of faith, and he will suffer no challenge to it, so it is “Time to Quit”

[Melony]

SERIOUSLY There is no such thing as "reverse discrimination". It is all dicrimination. Black white red pink, if you are being unfair and bias to any race is just discrimination or racisim... reverse discrimination makes it sound like its extra wrong because tis against the "majority" Scott i thought you were better then that?

[gr8hands]

Scott,

You're right about the "only 1 in 10 businesses make it" fallacy -- the facts are the opposite. (http://www.business.com/directory/advice/startup/getting-started-basics/upping-the-odds-of-startup-success/)

Jimbot: gr8hands is DEFINITELY NOT Cosbert. For the record, I type over 120 wpm, interpret deaf sign, am a concert pianist (and play a host of other instruments -- which is pretty standard for anyone studying for a music degree, so it isn't that amazing), crochet, do massage and was a gymnast, and a host of other manually dextrous things from darts to pool -- all things requiring extensive use of the hands -- and did so beyond what was considered "average" or "above average". Years of lessons, and practice, and positive feedback combine to give me the honest ability to call my hands great. (I would have had gr8hands.com but a DENTIST already had it.) Anyone having a problem with it is simply demonstrating their ignorance.

KB, the early adopters of Segways are still fanatics about them. (I tried one in Chicago last weekend, and they are über cool!)

Borg Warrior, the Segway people told us that bush tried to ride one that was turned on, but not activated -- he wasn't paying attention to the instructions which are clear to make certain it is activated first. It doesn't make him stupid, just typical in that he doesn't listen to people.

Jed Snole is right -- it takes money to make money. A friend spent all his savings and almost 2 years trying to patent an idea, only to have the Patent Office reject it as being too similar to an existing patent (for a product that isn't even being offered for sale, so there was no way he could have known about it).

Scott, one last thing: you've never responded to my posts about providing the scientific evidence/proof that there is no free will. (None of the people espousing this theory have done so either.) Those of us who disagree with you are waiting for you to do so, since your's is the extraordinary claim (we would say every choice we make is proof of free will, so to claim otherwise is extraordinary).

[Mark]

I got kicked off YouTube over two months ago. The reason? Contributing to the success of their service. I uploaded a good number of videos to YouTube, almost none of which I owned the copyright to, all of which I got from other sources on the internet. My first video, the “banned” Xbox 360 ad, was for a time the second most watched video on YouTube, with close to two million viewings click to see banned video (PATNOX.COM)

[Dossy Shiobara]

"I left the bank because my boss told me that she couldn’t promote a white male."

Sounds like a trend. I guess getting a deep tan and a sex change weren't a suitable solution to your problem, huh?

Yeah, creating Dilbert was probably a much better idea. :-)

[Sanjay Nasta]

Is this just another way of saying you have to have a differentiated idea, you have to have a unique selling proposition....if you are truly middle of the road in the modern era you can't succeed?

When I was a kid I used to wonder why certain cars generated so much passion (Porsche 911 and Ferrari Testarossa's for example) while other very competent cards didn't. Was it because a design by committee knocked all the edges off? Does it take edges to generate passion?

[lisa]

thank you for talking about how failure is necessary to success. i believe fear of risk is killing innovation today. continue to remind us that passion is the key.

[Borg Warrior]

The Segway died the death because of the video of GW Bush falling off it. Who wants a transportation device that's not idiot-proof?

[PATTI]

Patti says:
Frank, you have the Dilbert TV series on dvd?
I never saw it. Darn it anyway.
Are they selling them retail? If so, where?
If not, I'd like to buy or trade for copies.

Someone mentioned that the voices did not ring true to what they imagined the characters would sound like.
I would love to hear them.

Scott, did you decide on the sound of the voices?

[jimbot]

I think perhaps one point that you did not mention is your unfailing optimism...

I think I read somewhere that if someone criticizes and attacks you that you actually don’t get hurt by it but you assess the input and keep going.

“That which does not kill me makes me stronger”

Most people, on the other hand, will give up before their day of triumph-
And that is why they miss their lucky break…

Another way to say it is-

“Thank the Lord not only for the doors that open, but also for the doors that close”

Because most people will not see a closed door as an opportunity, but it really is-

For example: Your corporate career-
It was a closed door, but if you would have given up and stopped trying and dreaming, you would have missed your “Lucky Break”…

[CDriK]

> someone who hates your idea already cares
> about it.

I also think that people who hate your work
are a cause of success.

Maybe, it somehow renforces the passion on the 10% of early adopters and make them more extremist in their passion.

[jarad]

I figure aside from monatary gain as a measurment of success. You really need to qualify it with yourself. Just because you work your hands to the bone for 16 hours a day and have no life other than work but have millions of dollars may not indicate your success. a measure of success if better justified by how happy you are..I have alot of success, I have a job I love to do (nope not rich or the owner) a great son, my family is awesome and my friends are always around when I need them...like getting bailed out...there in the cell with me. lol. Sure I could be more successful...I could have a bit more money, drive a fancier car but, I don't...and I don't feel the need for those things...they would be nice but, I am successfull without them.

[CDriK]

I think you're right about passion.

To be passionnate with Dilbert I think you have to experience first corporate america.

But will 10% of people get passionnate about playing a simulation of corporate america ?

[Ian]

Scott,

Definitely (one of) your most profound blogs. Perseverance counts. A lot. Success rewards perseverance. You simply have to persevere until you are lucky. You might be lucky with your first attempt, but few people are.

Take Edison and the light bulb (he didn't invent it... it was invented almost 30 years before he was born and perfected 7 years before his birth). In trying to commercialise the electric light, he tried literally thousands of prototypes. Finally, he got it right. And people only remember the success, not the thousands of failures.

[Cosbert]

Kiran,
-------------------------------------------------------
YOU ASK: So what will be the deciding factors between HD-DVD and Blu Ray?
-------------------------------------------------------
I wish I could take credit for this but I read it somewhere (I just don't remember where) and it is almost intuitivly true, but PETER JACKSON will decide which format wins. Whichever one he releases LOTR on wins. That will be the one in every geeks living room overnight (yep, including mine). After that there will just be an avalanche of releases in that format.

[Barefoot Dreams]

No surprise that this post was emailed to me by a friend. It itself is probably one of those things that about 10% of your readers will "love." For me it adds a another dimension to the "do what you love and the money will follow" idea. Seems like both of the two sides of passion--the creator's and audience's--need to be there for something to really take off. The best products, like the ipod, create a bridge between a passionate designer and equally passionate consumer. Great post!

[Borg Warrior]

It's also true that if some people don't absolutely HATE something, it's not going to be successful. Think of every successful movie, celebrity, book, etc., etc. There are ALWAYS critics and consumers who simply can't stand it.

I ran into this with the Borg War fan film that I made for Machinima.com. About 95 percent of the people who watch it are fanatical about it, while the other 5 percent compare it to (actual quote) "finger painting in your own s**t".

[Bruce Mackey]

Perhaps with the passion you are reading in these comments, you'd consider trying 9 more times to get the Dilbert animated series accepted? Just because you failed once...

[magwai]

Reply to mohrorless:

10/11 is mohrorless 90%

[KB]

"Great ideas catch on immediately, and passionately, at least with the early adopters."

One notable exception to this (so far) is the Segway.

[ShirtBloke]

I used to make a small living as a cartoonist - doing one frame topicals - and I soon learned that every day I would have to think up 10 funny things in order to be assured that at least one of them would be genuinely funny to someone other than myself.

And do you know what?

Those illiterate uneducated sons of bitches of editors would consistently pick the wrong.

Go figure.

[Kevin Gibbs]

I was about to write that your 1 in 10 sucess rate, saying that i have had about 30 interviews and am still unemployed... then in the space of 6 hours i received... 3 job offers!

[Jeff Houser]

I think the failure rate for franchises is significantly higher. But, we as the consumer don't notice. The franchiser just takes the franchise back from one franchisee and gives that location to another (usually making a nice tidy profit along the way).

[John Smyth]

Please forward this wisdom to Ford and GM.

[yves c.]

the best business course ever and free of charge...thanks scott.

[sean]

If you want a bit of free costumer feedback of the Dilbert TV show - I will tell you this. In fact, when I first watched it, I thought to myslef - I wish I could tell that Dilbery guy what is wrong with this (for me).

It never worked for me - because the voice of the Characters never corresponded to the voices/accents that were in my head.

The superb thing about the cartoon is that it could be my English/American boss colleague etc. I could make up the voice that I thought fit best with what I read. And of course for me, like for everyone else (even people who don't know they are induh-viduals - the voice of Dilbert was mine (mostly).

[Mohrorless]

I think you also failed math!

You say you "failed at 9 out of 10 business adventures", but then you say'have an actual running list of my successes (3 notables) and failures (30)".

3 + 30 = 33. So 3 out of 33 = 1 out of 11. Meaning that you actually failed 10 out of 11 business adventures.

Maybe there was another reason (other than being a white male) that prevented a promotion at the bank.

[BillF]

There is another option when it comes to success.

I prefer to shoot for mediocrity. I am seldom disappointed and have a nearly 90% success rate. I'll never be rich, but I'll be content.

[Karen]

Good point about the enthusiasm levels for new products & services - thank you, that will save me wasting my time on merely good stuff.

And remember - there's no such thing as failure, only feedback

[Wolfger]

Argh! There is no such thing as "reverse discrimination". Get that idea out of your head. It's *all* dicrimination. The color of the victim's skin is irrelevant.

[rootnode]

"If everyone exposed to a product likes it, the product will not succeed."

hmmmm....

ok. I'll bite.

But how do you test? Easy enough for a cartoon or a comic strip, but how do you test for an IT idea, purely technical solution. Who would get passionate about that?

[Bob]

"If you plan to try 10 things, knowing 9 will fail, do things that won’t kill you in the process. I prefer challenges where the worst case scenario is that I’m embarrassed or tired, as opposed to bankrupt or dead. And I prefer challenges where the upside potential is unlimited even if unlikely. But those are personal choices. I find it easy to shrug off failure, so failing 90% of the time works for me. Your mileage may vary."

Thats the best advice I have ever heard for starting a busines. That and luck it the biggest sucsess factor. Of course its the advice I give others and myself after watching my Dad try and try again at his bussnieses. Bankrupt or almost Bankrupt is no fun.

[chike]

I cannot help but post a quote from Michael Jordan which you must have heard but deserves at another listen in the context of your post:

"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."

[Stuart]

I have been working on my business idea for 18 months. I gave up three weeks ago because I had failed to find anyone who loved it as much as me, although everyone 'liked it'. Wise words.

[Hoi Wong]

I'm passionate about Dilbert's animated show, even more than the comics itself. It's just because back then there weren't any Dilbert DVDs while it was aired on TV and it's not as easy to pass around like Dilbert comics strips.

[Jed Snole]

Two comments: First, I always had the impression that you weren't really involved with the production of the Dilbert animated series. It tried to alter too many of the constants in the strip that even any occasional reader would have known were inviolable. I recall one episode where the characters gave the company a name. The whole series looked like it was written by someone who maybe read a half dozen strips and then decided they knew all they needed to know about the characters.

Secondly, with regard to risk taking, it's a lot different for those of us who aren't rolling in dough. The idea of spending a couple hundred dollars for parts and then implementing a brilliant idea in your garage is appealing, but it's about as likely as winning the lottery. Mostly you have to invest tens of thousands, get through a lot of government regulations, hire lawyers and accountants, before the first dollar of income rolls in. Some of us can recover from one failure and try again if we put our entire retirement reserve into it, but for most of us, even one failure will change the rest of our life from struggling to remain sort of middle class, to complete poverty with no chance of ever getting out of it.

[Kiran]

So what will be the deciding factors between HD-DVD and Blu Ray?

"One deciding factor may be the porn industry, which played a major role in deciding the videotape battle in favour of VHS. Microsoft will affect the issue when it offers its Xbox 360 games console with a built-in HD DVD player next month."
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article1835256.ece

The Porn industry may decide which technology wins!!
Hows that for passion?

[ankur srivastava]

I don't quite agree with "Everyone likes the idea means it's a failure". There are some ideas which at one instance are liked by everyone. for ex. starting out a business which gives some sort of much needed service to people.
However, if some people are indeed too much passionate about an idea, it definitely is a good indicator (provided you don't consider those people to be arseholes.)

[Lewis]

Scott, I just wanted to say that I loved, not just liked the animated series. Thanks a lot for all of your hard work!

[Aaron]

The Dilbert cartoon is usually short and to the point. And honesty only hits the funny spot with me only occasionally. But it's not a big investment of my time, all I need to do is click a button in Outlook to allow the images to corrupt my mind. So even if it's only funny 1/10 times it still worth it. Maybe the animation is just too long? (To me the animated series was funnier but probably took more time to write the material.) What about making the animated equivalent of a 3 cell comic strip? You could use Flash and just play it through the web. Bigger audience and no TV producers or exec's to deal with. or if you want do short stories you could probably even do a deal with Google now they are really getting into this online TV. Dilbert is probably perfect on a 2 inch Ipod screen.

[Frank]

"my (failed) attempt at creating a hit Dilbert animated TV show"

Well, maybe it didn't catch on for most of the public, but I have all of the episodes on DVD.

[Bob]

I have failed in everything I have done. But when I do finally succeed at something, it's gonna be a doozy!

And fuck public support!

[TJ]

i am quitting my job. I am facing this sort of window for last few years, where they suddenly expect me to be in office, and work just because they pay me every month. I would rather try something else. :-)

[Adam]

I know when to quit.

[Liron]

Hey Scott, I think the Dilbert animated series was great -- one of the best shows on television. Very nicely done. This was also an educational post for me.

[Roni]

Free will is that in any given situation an individual could respond in different ways. But our decision making process is based on nature and nurture, so at a given point in time, those cannot change, they're not random, therefore our decision would always be the same.

Even if you were dice man, the roll of the dice is governed by the physics of the throw and the environment around it. If this was done twice with the exact same circumstances the result would be exactly the same.

So dice has the same amount of free will as we do. None at all.

Scott, is that how you see free will? I don't remember if you've defined your view clearly. It might stop the believers from whinging that no free will turns us all into unspiritual wildlife.

[Peter Payne]

The iPod was quite like this. It was loved immediately by a small portion of the world (Mac users only, back then), and panned as being too expensive by most "experts."

I mean, most people loved Top Gun when it was out, and do this day I will not watch that crappy ass movie because it was too popular for its own good. Related? Who knows.

[James]

God bless you for telling me that Scott! Perhaps it is time to give up going to college for me and settle into my backup plan... being a comedian instead of an aerospace engineer! (I can patent stuff in my freetime, I don't need a degree for that, and then when I get enough money from my patents I could finish up college the financially intelligent way, that is if I even still want to go through the trouble to obtain a degree!) Einstien didn't do so good in school (too many damn deadlines) and look what he did! Perhaps... still considering... maybe perhaps! Their's only one way out of this little game called student debt, and that's called success. Ouch, it really hurts my ego to admit this, but they don't accept late work at ASU and I'm always late with my work! Oh, I hope that you've inspired me in the right direction (along with a little book series entitled Feynam's Lectures on Physics, who even needs school with that knowledge, right?)! Besides, I'm all for school that is about going at your own pace, like when I got straight A's in high school! It's all about timing, mine and your timing, not about superficial deadlines timing where you essentially hooked up to an atomic clock with a stupid alarm on it!

Well anyway, thanks for letting me vent my feelings!

[kebram]

Speaking of no free will. You stated in one of your books that your success was do to positive affirmations and recommended that we all use them. Is this part of your programing of the meatbot? Either way, are you not using free will to change your programing?

[The late Jack Kerouac]

If you start out not wanting to be a success but you become successful,are you a failure? Or the reverse.

All my life I've tried to fail but I've succeeded in everything I've attempted - can one fail to fail?

If you fail you are a failure i.e. you've succeeded at failing,but in the process you have become a success.

Did you ever look in the mirror and wonder if somebody else just stepped in front of you?

Not really a comment - just things that came to mind while thinking about the Taliban.

[Danial]

I think it all boils down to the gut. Intestines, if you prefer.

I think people with exerience can tell when an idea is good or bad. They feel it in their, uh, intestines, or duodenum maybe.

A lot of people in a target group for any survey are just happy someone is interested in their opinion. So, consequently, they don't want to disappoint the person who hired them so they say "Yeah! My eyes and ears tell me it's great!" When in fact, their lower intestines are saying, "What a crap hole. If I was ever going to describe a crap hole, this would be it."

I work with and deal with people all day long. Customer, vendors, and the occassional homeless guy who wanders in looking for a handout...er...work, or a public bathroom. After 20 years, it's easy to tell when someone is offering a good idea or a bad one. You just know.

[JM]

Nice one. :-)

[Sam]

re: comprehending notion of 'everyone liking a concept = failure'

You asked us to indicate in the comments if your prediction that readers who could assess why the above 'equation' were true before reading your explanation were already successful in their own right.

Just thought I'd say you're probably correct. However, I worked out why this would be the case due to my professional background (marketing) and business background (entrepeneurial, not necessarily successful!) more than because I'm an out-and-out success.

That said, at 25 I run a multinational company, but amusingly have to employ people who are much older than me to be the 'face' of the organisation. Amusingly, it is assumed that because of my age, sex and appearance, I mustn't have much of an idea about anything except shoes.

[Cosbert]

Jimbot,

{First, no need to be humble here, I’ll be humble before the Lord. Even though Scott is just mad he didn’t get the job, he isn’t actually ‘the Lord’ (and I’m still not actually Scott)}

Interesting take, where you say:
He silently observes the twists and turns of the human flotsam that surrounds him...
He is aware of, but cannot change the madness of the people he works with.
As the corporate world is presented in the comic, it is a microcosm of the culture and society at large, which we live in.

I don’t think that is so different from my position that the only way he could deal with the madness, without actually joining it, is to become apathetic. If he cared, he would try to fix things, make them ‘better’ or at least he would leave to find a path ‘his heart could follow’ (like maybe be a cartoonist, open a restaurant or two) but no, he plods on. He has learned the rules of existence in purgatory and abides them without either surrendering to the madness or running away from it. The only place that remains is apathy. He watches, plays his part and goes home.

The show (and the strip) is about Dilbert, his environment, and how he deals with his environment. Ultimately, the way he deals to stop caring. If he actually had ambition, that would create conflict, and that is ‘the stuff literature is made of’. BOCTAOE

[Of course these opinions are absent Scott actually chiming in and saying, “Dilbert is about the mating habit of South American squirrels” Since he is the author he has that privilege, if only he had the ‘will’ to do so.]

[Albert]

Your passion / like TV idea apparently didn't apply to Arrested Development ... RIP

[jim]

I'm guessing:

1) Dilbert and everything that comes with it.

2) Restauranteur

I hope and pray (yeah, I'm one of those) that your third success is finding the love of a wonderful woman. Please don't let it be that political secret stuff or anything to do with tennis. Or that drawing contest. Please...

[rd]

passion may look like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P4PVWJqN5g
a very passionate song(lyrics) and wildly popular all over Asia, it's sooo 80ies

are you saying you quit to try for NPL, i thought it's the most feasible one

[Phil]

When talkin about success, I think that Sir Winston Churchill nailed it when he said:

"Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm."

Tallies very well with your post, but with great economy of words.

[jimbot]

aw crap, cosbert is dilbert is gr8hands is Scott is...

[Cosbert]

Bruce Harrison,
In the absence of a 'religion' Scott's 'faith' (and make no doubt about it, it is a FAITH, a belief in things unproven) is that there is no such thing as 'free will'. I would almost call it "junkular humanism". Of course, what he hides behind is a form of circular logic. He merely defines away any evidence of 'free will' (I've been down the 'explain creativity' path with him, he's convinced creativity is an 'illusion' as he put it "like Penn & Teller"). I have my own 'articles of faith', so does everybody. (whether they want to believe or not they do...) This is Scott's. He's wrong, but that doesn't make Dilbert less funny or following his blog less fun and interesting. Just accept it a move on. As part of 'accepting it' when Scott poses the philosophical 'who's to blame' or 'how did this happen' question, follow these simple steps:
Start by telling yourself, "Scott Doesn't Believe In Free Will"
Go back and read the last weeks worth of Dilbert
Go buy a Dilbert coffee mug as a gift for a co-worker (Get one that makes fun of the PHB, so that when your PHB sees the mug on your co-workers desk they will become offended at the co-worker. Remember it does have to be one simple enough for a PHB to KNOW he (she) is supposed to be offended)
and finally,
Come back answer the question.

And if your looking for fun, there are plenty of PHBg (Pointy Headed Bloggers) here who will argue with you about anything...

---------------------------------------------------

ANDY: If you are looking for an "Evolution Geek and Grammar Nazi" try http://www.alicornenterprises.com, what they lack in actual understanding of Darwinian's Theory of Evolution, they make up for in "Grammar Nazi". You will find him here operating under the name "gr8hands" (although the best he has evidenced so far is a 'mediocre mind'. Personally, I think anybody who thinks their own hands are 'gr8' has other issues)

[Shawn Yarbrough]

Scott,

Tell us the patent number!!!!!!!!!

Shawn

[Jane Rohan]

Scott;

Just for the record, I think the reason Dilbert the TV show failed is because UPN kept moving it around, both day and time. I never knew when it was on. I loved it and bought the DVD's when they came out. I thought the voices were inspired. And to answer someone's question re; Star Trek, yes there was a cartoon that ran for 4-5 years and used the original voices. It was quite good.

I think you're onto something about people being passionate about something. However, it doesn't always work in the TV business, as if the network doesn't like the show, and not enough viewers like it, it's history. There are countless instances where a show didn't get good ratings at first (I'm thinking of "Seinfeld") yet the Network believed in it and it was a success eventually.

I think you should try again for Dilbert as an animated series. The opening alone was classic! My husband (not a real Dilbert fan) thought it was great.

Jane Rohan

[Sondra]

What if all the passion is fake?

Person: What will you be serving at your new Restaurant?

Me: T-Bone Steak.

Person: T-Bones!!! I'll be there every day!

8 months later, not a one of Them has eaten Anything in my restaurant.

[GregOz]

You are absolutley spot on! I reckon your ratio is sadly accruate as well. I have developed a website that tested at 90% "that is the best idea we have seen in a long time" Sure we'd use it. I was sitting back in anticipation, that was 2 years ago and despite being something that EVERYONE that lives in a house/apartment/flat etc Worldwide would find EXTERMELY useful we still only cover costs.
If I'd known/considered the passion factor I'd have re thought things, although I did get 5% of people that wanted to talk to us specifically and send the url to their family friends etc
O LOUD Howard annoys me! (But maybe he's meant to!)

[jimbot]

Cosbert said:
[The ‘failure’ of the Dilbert show was the very thing that the show was about, apathy.]

If I may humbly submit to you that Dilbert is not so much about apathy, but more about the outrageous lengths to which some people will go to attain power over others-

If you will note, there is no mouth on Dilbert. His is a silent kind of suffering at the hands of those who are infinitley more ignorant and less intelligent than he is.
Yet more than willing to mete out their own brand of "justice" ...

He silently observes the twists and turns of the human flotsam that surrounds him...
He is aware of, but cannot change the madness of the people he works with.
As the corporate world is presented in the comic, it is a microcosm of the culture and society at large, which we live in.

This is why so many intelligent people are attracted to Dilbert.
They are the only ones who "get it"

There are many succesful people within the corporate world who qualify as psychopathic-

Because they are able to carry out the dictates of the corporation with little to no feelings of remorse- Much like a Jeffry Dawmer-

But with better cars, oh and um, Lear Jets, and multi million dollar birthday parties...

[Ralph]

'If everyone exposed to a product likes it, the product will not succeed.
Think about that for a minute before I explain why everyone liking something predicts failure.'

I stopped reading when you said stop reading and I figured it out. I thought for a moment that it was going to be something else but my final answer was passion...

' If you get this answer right, I’m guessing that you are already successful yourself.'

Nope... just thought you should know... man I really feel like shit now, thanks a lot.

[Graham]

Are you really Forest Gump?

[kh]

Well, I've been divorced four times so as quoted by my boyfriend, "well, if that's true [blog] you need 6 more husbands...at least one would work out...timing...that's what you're missing."

[Danny Noonan]

I think this has become even more and more true over the past 50 years or so. Take TV for example. In the days of the big three networks, all three tried to please everyone. They had to command the whole audience to win the ratings war. The result was that most of their shows sucked. Nowadays we have a cagillion networks, not to mention the awesome power of DVD. So you can make a show like Battlestar Galactica or Rome that if you showed it to a focus group, 90% would hate it. But the other 10% would like it enough to buy the DVDs or subscribe to showtime a all of a sudden you're making money off a show that couldn't get better ratings than a CSI rerun. This is true for lots of things. More options coupled with more consumers equals higher quality.

[Rick Miller]

Now there's a nugget worth remembering. If everyone likes it, it won't succede.

Yeah I see the sense in that about the passion because you can't really get passionate about something that everyone will agree with you about. The weird thing is, it's not just a one-way street. Those passionate people aren't just an indicator, they're a part of the effect.

Big waves come in all the time but they're not "great waves" unless some nut is out there saying, "That one is mine!"

[Simon]

I enjoy this blog every day, but this is one of the most thought provoking posts for a while. It makes me think about various business ventures I've seen in action and been involved with, and I can't fault your logic. If a small number of people love your idea, service or product, they will do what it takes to keep it alive. If they have to pay over the odds or if they have to find some other way of supporting you, they will make sure that it works.

If lots of people like your product or service but no one loves it then there is no driving force outside of your own need to make money. You will have to spend more on advertising to reach more apathetic customers, and your satisfied customers will never shout about your product to all and sundry for free. We feel a passion for so little in life that when we find something that we care about, we make it work.

[Andy]

I guessed the reason. I find it hard to decide whether I'm successful, so I guess I'm not. I work in science, am taking voluntary redundancy next May and have no idea what i want to do.
I had to follow up on this though:
"I don’t recall, which of us started calling humans, monkeys first"
That would be Charles Darwin. And you didn't need any commas in that sentence.
Is evolution geek and grammar Nazi a career?

[Stephen Ludt]

P.S. try NBC, there starting to come around to the white collar strugle with the office, just put dilbert right after.

[Stephen Ludt]

I wish you'd bring the show back, it was doomed because it was on upn. bring it back on comedy central (where it was syndicated for some time) and it will be a major sucsess. after my sister had broke my first set of dvds, i went out and bought them again even though i had the backups on my hard drive. If that doesn't say passion, i will slice my wrist with the disks(hopefully it dosen'tcut through, i hate pain)

[Lance]

Thanks for more insight Scott.

So there's Dilbert, Staceys Cafe, and what is the other big success? I'm also curious in the other failures that should have been slam dunks.

This is very interesting to me because I also missed some slam dunk businesses (blowing 3 million in the process), but know have achieves signifigant and rapidly growing success in a pretty outragious business (people still think I'm joking when I tell them what I do...)

-Lance

[DML]

Also, you never mentioned your two other "notable" success. Or was that on purpose?

Additionally I'd love to hear more about your failures. I loves me a good train wreck story.

Thanks!
-DML

[Bruce Harrison]

Really good post, Scott. But it brings up a circular logical question. This one is fun, and I get to challenge you at the same time; so, sweetness!

OK, here we go: you've had two threads of discussion that continue to appear in your blog (besides curing terrorism). They may be succinctly stated in this way: 1) There is no God, and 2) There is no free will.

Let's examine these together in light of your blog entry. You have had new and unique ideas that led to something that had never been seen before. Roughly one-tenth of your ideas (yes, I read the posts on the math error -- I recall a Dilbert where Wally did the same thing to a woman who was complaining about a pay differential between men and women, but I digress) have turned into great successes.

For a new idea to be created, one must have the capacity to create. This seems to require either free will to think in ways that haven't been done before, or requires one to simply act out a scenario that has been orchestrated in its entirety, which makes everything that happens, happen automatically.

Therein lies the conundrum. If there is no free will, how did you come up with those ideas? As a matter of fact, without free will, where would creativity come from? The only reasonable answer is that if there is no free will, then everything is preordained. The only way that I can come up with for that to happen, other than through the exercise of free will, is for some truly creative being who does have free will to have already done all the creating for you.

Logically, then, it's difficult to create a scenario that holds up where there is both no free will and no God. Religion teaches us that both exist; that God gave us free will, even though he already knows what we're going to do with it. That also presents a logical conundrum, I admit. But the latter conundrum presupposes a wonderful, vibrant universe created for a reason (even though we may never understand what the reason is), while the former conundrum has no more meaning and no more excitement than that created by endlessly watching dust particles dance due to Brownian motion.

Now, I realize you are nothing if not fully and totally enmeshed in your own immovable belief system. Perhaps that's the hallmark of an independent creative thinker. But it can also be stimulating and fun to once in a while ask yourself, "What if I'm wrong?" I hope it will be as much fun for you to read and consider this post as it was for me to write it. And thanks again for this blog post -- it was exceptional. Even if it was just a random act of non-free will.

[Free will isn't necessary in anything I've posted. I had to do the things I did and had to explain them in a way that looked to you as if free will was important to it all. And you have no choice but to not understand this response. -- Scott]

[Abner Kravits]

Another inspiring one, and a good one to read to my kids. These are very motivating...thanks for passing it on....

[skraps]

Scott- what is the number of your almost patent?
I won't tell anyone, I'm just curious.

[Playtah]

Scott, whattaya think...I got a package that had TWO sporks instead of just one when I went to a restaurant. I'm selling it on ebay. ( http://cgi.ebay.com/Double-Spork-2-sporks-in-one-package-good-luck_W0QQitemZ320037649114QQihZ011QQcategoryZ35671QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem )

Good idea, or should I quit? :) Give me wisdom.

--Playtah

[Cosbert]

Billy B,
You say: Knowing when to quit is easy... When y'r flat ass broke and have to start over again.
---
Sorry to disagree, that is not when you quit, that is WHEN YOU BEGIN.
----
Thejisforjay:
You point out: I'm not sure your theory works when applied to TV shows. Look at TV shows like "Arrested Devlopment" or "Andy Richter Controls the Universe;" ultimately, networks want ratings, and those passionate few are not going to be enough to keep a show on the air for long.
---
Your point may have been more valid back in the age when there where 3 networks and PBS. Today, I’m surprised we don’t have ‘the Dilbert Network’ on satellite and cable, or maybe PHB on TNT. It doesn’t take that much to make a ‘good show’ (or at least a ‘good enough’ show). Now that being said, and I truly mean this with all due respect to Scott, Dilbert is a ‘punchline’ (a very good punchline) but not a ‘storyline’, there was no character development, as a viewer I didn’t get caught up ‘wanting’ something for Dilbert (success, failure, a fire in his pants, nothing..) The ‘failure’ of the Dilbert show was the very thing that the show was about, apathy. The only way Dilbert survives the corporate culture is to stop caring about wanting ‘good things to happen’, without the drive for individual achievement, he can deal with the PHB, Wally and Dogbert (now, if you want a character to make a show about, try Dogbert). The problem is that his apathy leads directly to OUR apathy as viewers. We can read a three panel joke about the mundane world we live in. We can look at Wally and think, that’s exactly like Jim over there, and get a chuckle. When can get a big grin while sitting in a meeting that is just exactly like what you described in last weeks strip, and even look around the room and see who else is smiling, because they know how funny the PHB in the room is being. For the people who really ‘get’ Dilbert, as a TV show it struck too close to home, it was too much like a re-run of a day at the office, and who wants to watch that. People live vicariously through television. People want to see people doing exciting things. People love terrible shows like survivor because people are trying to achieve something, and when we watch those shows we want or don’t want with them or for them. We become invested in the show and the outcome, whether it is wanting the blond on the Uba-uba tribe of survivor to bounce out of her buff or Jack Bauer to shoot the bad guy, we WANT something to happen, and we want to tune in to see if it does or doesn’t happen.

Scott, With that in mind, you might find some success making an animated Dilbert part of something bigger, like a single animated sketch on MadTV or SNL, where it would fit as a punchline.

[Scott]

I never much cared for the term "reverse discrimination" or "reverse racism". There's nothing reverse about it, it's just regular racism. Any time you treat people as a single entity because of their race, that's racism.

Thanks for the business tips. I'll start working on something everyone will loathe.

[That other guy]

Um...so because you weren't "lucky" getting a promotion, you became "lucky" with doing Dilbert?

I think there's a deeper message there that talks about the real nature of "luck".

[Broacher]

Why only two seasons? I think Scott already answered that. Everybody liked it!

Anyone looking for a good shot of counter-thinking boosterism should check out Paul Arden's newest: "Whatever You Think Think The Opposite".

Peace and harmony? Maybe these two should be separated more. Afterall, isn't that what the pilgrims believed?

[Alice]

When i went to hospital - reasons involving losing part of my ear lobe and earrings (the only time when woman's vainity outweighs men's - we like our ears to sparkle!) I took a dilbert book with me. On arriving at the hospital having also gained chocolate on the way (pays to be prepared) I found the doctor had a dilbert strip bluetacked to her door - I didn't know whether to be relieved or terrified. So I went with terrified, when i get really scared I go silent - my dad thought I was so brave that he wouldn't stop telling the story about how I had had that bad experience and not cried or screamed despite the screaming 5 year old being injected with something only a curtain's width away. Truth was I was shaking so bad I couldn't stand. Don't why this is relevant but I thought people might understand (v. pointy haired of me!)

[Andrew]

I LOVE the Dilbert strip, but not so much the animated series.

On the other hand, I LOVE the Boondocks animated series, but don't really care for the strip.

[DML]

So how do you come up with these ideas? Were the long hard days of reverse discrimination the fuel for your ideas or were you always in the habit of coming home and thinking of ideas?

[Live long and prosper]

The original Star Trek series (with William Shatner) was cancelled after two seasons. A write in campaign by fans got it a third season before it was axed.

Then it made a comeback in the movies. And then there was another Star Trek television series (Next Generation). With spin offs (Deep Space Nine, Voyager and Enterprise). I'm pretty sure there was an animated Star Trek series too.

Passion indeed.

[Ankit]

nice read. Thanks

But why did the animated series end after season 2. I simily loved it.

[Mrs. L]

My guess was that if everyone liked it, then no one would see anything that needed changing, and it would never improve. But then, I'm not a successful person--only a happy one.

[Sha'quan]

Man, I dug getting *your* promotion!

Sha'quan

[PATTI]

Patti asks:

How many of your viewers love Loud-Howard??

He is distasteful and aggravating.. but great as a cartoon.
You just LOVE to HATE HIM!!

Plus, he aggravates his boses as well.
We like it when the boss has problems with the office Loud mouth know-it-all. We are afraid he might actually get somewhere in life and are upset that he might make it.. with his rudeness and big mouth.
(Sometimes, he can even be.. one of the boses)

We odd ones..delight in this guy as a cartoon.

How many of your viewers love him? How many Hate him?

I doubt that there is any middle ground.
He is too dramatic and exaggerated to be.. middle of the road.... and "just liked".. by alot of readers.

I do get a kick out of him. He's horribly great!..LOL

SO? I believe that your input on an "okay idea" verses a "great one" is true.
You need people to be passionate about your ideas.
Even if it is 9 or 10%.
Overall, that is alot of people.

Thanks for the tip, Scott. It really does make sense.

Have you ever thought of doing a real bashful quiet- mumble-mouth as a counterpart to Loud Howard?
You know, one of those people you keep asking to repeat things.. because they will not speak up.

I have talked to many of these people on the phone.
Their english is not very good and they mumble. I need help (customer-service??)and I am absoulutely forced to deal with them. I ask them to repeat things over & over again.
Usually I have waited (on hold) and then.....?????

That should be another BLOG!

******************

[Rebecca]

I think it's also important to realize that not all failures are failures. For example, I had a horrible job two summers ago at a "wilderness" lodge in Alaska, from which I was fired 6 days before my contract was up, not to mention being treated like crap. I probably should have quit when it started getting bad, but I felt like I had a resonsibility to finish my contract.

Nevertheless, I don't regret working at that horrible place because while there, I met a family from Bologna who invited me to come live with them in Italy. As a result, I'm now living in Italy and getting paid for speaking in English, something that I find rather easy to do.

I would consider having a horrible job and getting fired a failure, and I would consider moving to Italy and having the time of my life a success. But I couldn't have had one without the other.

[Josh]

Perhaps not surprisingly, that was approximately my reaction to the Dilbert TV show. It was pleasant enough, but it didn't generate the rabid obsession the way the cartoon did. I would only end up watching if I happened to be home when it was on, and happened to feel like watching TV, and nothing else was on that I was more interested in (I think the syndicated Simpson's episodes were on at the same time where I lived, so not many other shows stood a chance). Timing didn't help either. You missed the TiVo generation by a few years.

[just_human]

Repost Steve Irwin.

[MikeBert in Phoenix]

Okay, I have a serious question for a change:

If something is sure to be a success when a small, passionate minority is crazy about it and most people either hate it or just don't get it, does that makes terrorism a "success"?

You can argue the numbers all day, but the fact is that ~1% of the world population (or 0.1% or 10%) loves it, and ~99% (or 99.9% or 90%) hates it.

Does that mean it's destined to be a success? Granted, it's not a product, but when has that ever stopped anything from becoming a hit.

Mike

[Passionate support is the minimum for success, not a guarantee. -- Scott]

[Mr. Wampus]

I've always been a little bit confused about the word "passionate." You always hear people say that you should be "passionate" about your work, for example. I guess my issue is that I equate the word "passion" with a Tom Cruise jumping-on-Oprah's-couch-declaring-his-love-for-Katie kind of enthusiasm. If that is the definition of "passion" then I wouldn't say that I'm passionate about ANYTHING. But in your examples of what defines "passion" (buying 6 for each of your friends without asking about the price) then I'm passionate about a lot of things, I just don't make a big deal about it. I don't wear my passion on my sleeve.

Using some of your examples, I would say that I am "passionate" about Dilbert (I have many strips pinned to my bulletin board at work) but not the Dilbert TV show (Dilebert's voice in the show didn't match the Dilbert voice in my head) and Get Fuzzy by the same token. I'm also passionate about golf. (Dilbert would want to kill me.)

Thanks for clarifying it for me.

[Midnight Skulker]

Scott,

You are in good company. Edison said "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." and "Many of life's failures are people who did not relaize how close they were to success when they gave up."
So going one for ten might get you sent to the minor leagues in baseball, in life that's pretty darn good where timing is everything.

[Todd]

well---if you invest $1000 and suddenly the investment is worth millions, sell and quit now! Of course, it's usually not that obvious.

if everybody likes it it will fail---anything "watered down" enough for everybody is going to be (to switch metaphors) lukewarm. I bet everybody in some focus group "liked" the Muzak, after all....

true story from work: the central Muzak system could not be shut off in individual cube farms. So...people in various areas pulled the wires from the speakers. Those speakers were also connected to the fire alarm system. Several fire drills were performed in the same month and several areas did not evacuate because they did not hear the fire alarm. Speakers were thus reconnected as fire drills flushed out the non-working ones, and the Muzak was back on, and people yanked the wires again. Finally, after several iterations of this, someone got the bright idea to get rid of the Muzak! Problem solved and the fire alarms work now.

[jimbot]

Well, Im not sure what monkey language would be for that but here it is in squirrel language:

Squeak squeak squawk sqeakity-sqawck squeaker.
Squwkity-squeek squawking squeaking squawk.
Squeakily squeaking squawk sqeakity-sqawk squeaker.
Squawkity-squeak squawkin squeakin squawk.
Squeakity squeakin squawk sqeakity-sqawk squeaker.
Squawkity-squeak squawkin squeakin squawk.

Squawk.

[carrie]

BTW, thanks for bringing Loud Howard back :)
His hair looks different though. I thought it was brown before.

[carrie]

I think that's very insightful. Thanks Scott.
Reading the comments on your blog also make me feel better about myself. I realized I'm not all anal like those people complaining about your math skills and totally missing the point you're making. I'm also not commentting on this blog solely to promote my own blog and I'm not still stuck on the free will thing.
I loved the TV show too. Maybe you could put it on DVD and pull a Family Guy to get it back on the air.

[Paul Dove]

I've bought lots of your books and I love the comic strips. I also loved the Dilbert TV show. And so did all my family. We must have watched every episode broadcast at least five times, and then we bought the DVDs. But on the other hand the rest of my family usually don't get the comic strips, and I have to explain why they are funny.

Not sure if this means anything, but the humour somehow didn't transfer directly to TV; it was subtly changed in the process. And it probably also means that my family are wierd, but in a good way.

[jimbot]

Scott,

Yes I think its very true that passion is everything.
Just look at Apple computers. They have been able to make billions out of 2% of the market. The iPod is now the defacto "It" accessory for college age young adults.
Steve Jobs understands this very well. Enthusiasm is catchy.
When College students say that an iPod is more important than beer, that says it all.

Yay Apple!
Yay Scott!
Yay Dilbert!

OK is that too much?

[chris m]

By this theory, Arrested Development should have succeeded, and bland but generally agreeable shows like King of Queens would have failed.

Too bad.

[wingnutx]

Alas, a hard core of fanatics can also fail to save a great product, like the show Firefly.

[thejisforjay]

I'm not sure your theory works when applied to TV shows. Look at TV shows like "Arrested Devlopment" or "Andy Richter Controls the Universe;" ultimately, networks want ratings, and those passionate few are not going to be enough to keep a show on the air for long.

[LizLobert]

I found this blog entry useful and insightful. Then I realized that it wouldn't generate a lot of responses since it generates no controversy (unless you are paranoid).

I thought to myself, "Self, you'd better leave a response just so we will see more of this kind of blogging since Mr. Adams seems to use response levels as a measure of what kind of things he should be writing about."

Then I went to see my therapist.

[Buckshot]

Great post. When I first discovered Dilbert, I was one who emailed it to friends. I couldn't understand why they didn't see the genius that was so clear to me. I decided they were stupid and I am smart. Something like that. My life is immeasurably better because of you, Scott. And Robert Ringer. And Dale Carnegie. And Joe Karbo. And Ben Franklin. And Richard Feynman. Keep telling me things that make my life better. (like the 9 steps to investing)

[ray]

so what are your other two successes?
your spouse?

[Click Me]

I've found that not trying much, but being very good at what you do, works as an almost guaranteed method of success.

I suck at failure... I pretty much dread it... but I can only say that theoretically because I've never actually failed before. Not because I'm great or because I have amazing luck, but because I've never tried anything that was even remotely risky. Pretty much every success in my life has been something I just let happen, and my abilities allowed it to be successful.

My current job, I like... most people hate their jobs. Most people dread going to work, hate their boss, feel like they're going nowhere, etc. But I enjoy what I do, I enjoy my work environment, and I get paid fairly well (for someone who never even finished high-school). How did I get there? Was it by taking risks and being lucky? Nope. It was by applying at a temp agency. I was pretty much guaranteed a job, right? "Yeah, but a crappy job.", you say. And you're right. But it doesn't stop there. That's when your abilities come in. I then went on to show my employers that I can do the work ten times better than anyone else had before. And then I showed them how to eliminate the work, and streamline their processes. Then they gave me different work, and asked me to streamline that, and so on, until I was at a position where I basically managed myself and took on projects at my own pace. Now, what's the worse that could have happened? I could have gotten a lousy boss, or gone to a company that had no room for advancement, or whatever. Well, that's still no risk, or failure really, because I wasn't trying to do anything. If I felt like trying something new, I could just ask around about another job, or go back to the temp agency. Eventually, you'll find a company who isn't opposed to making their business better. That's not exactly a one-in-a-million chance.

In my spare time I'm a musician. A while ago, I bought some recording equipment which I used to record my own songs. I tinkered around with the process until I got fairly good at it. One day, when playing an instrument for another musician, they asked me to do some recordings for them. I agreed, but figured I should probably charge them something for it. They were willing to pay because I produced good results. My abilities made my time worth money to them. Keep in mind, I hadn't done anything at this point. No investments, no advertising, no nothing. Just playing music and recording my stuff every once in a while. Then, that person told another person about me, and they asked if I'd record a song for them. Then a friend told another friend about me, and that friend's band wanted a recording. Then someone who heard the music from the first person's recordings liked what they heard and contacted me. And so on and so on. Years later, I make a very healthy supplemental income doing something that involved no risk, and virtually no investment (since the equipment I originally used was cheap and I just bought it for my own personal use, and because any newer, more expensive equipment I've bought since then has always been paid for by the recordings I'd done).

Granted, I'm no internationally famous comic author... and maybe it takes "risk" and "failure" to get there... who knows... but it sure doesn't require "risk" or "failure" to get somewhere good.

[CLB]

Scott, picture me holding up a sign that says "10", the way judges do in contests. Fantastic post!

What you're saying rings true, at least for me. The biggest challenges I’ve faced so far weren’t business ventures, or even ones I sought out. Starting a family doesn’t sound like much, except when it doesn’t happen the old fashioned way or any new fangled way either.

Adoption is fraught with challenges. The potential rewards are enormous, but there are inherent risks that can make it both emotionally and financially disastrous.

My husband and I are not exactly gamblers. We stopped by Atlantic City once while visiting a friend to see what it was all about. Our comfort level was the video game machines. Most hotels had them for a quarter; we found one that had the same machine for a nickel. Low risk.

I didn't just think it would be nice to have a family if we could; I was passionate about this and would not quit and accept defeat (there are at least two other couples I know who gave up and consequently don't have children). We really had to break out of our comfort zone to pursue our dream. I’ve had many meals that consisted solely of Pepto and Tylenol.

There was a lot of hard work on our part and we did suffer a few failures. But boy oh boy did luck end up playing a big role. Both times. Talk about connections and being at the right place at the right time!

So if you made it this far into what is likely the longest comment I’ve ever posted, here’s a question for you. When you’re discussing free will how does that relate to fate? Is everything that happens “meant to be”?

[squigs]

It's unusual that you blame failures on bad luck.

The Robert the Bruce type is more likely to blame himself for failures, and work out what he could have done differently. Edison, for example, was said to be proud of discovering so many ways not to invent the light bulb.

Normally people who blame things on bad luck get disheartened and give up.

Clearly you're just an extremely positive person...

[Tigershire]

You posted a couple words in your blog that really bug me. Not the words individually but when these 2 are used together it just pisses me off.

What the hell is "reverse discrimination"?!?

If discrimination is unfairness towards another, reverse discrimination is fairness towards another and that is not what was happening to white males at the time.

Why can't we call it was it was - discrimination, plain and simple.

[Billy B]

Knowing when to quit is easy... When y'r flat ass broke and have to start over again.
Billy B

[checkm]

If everyone exposed to a product likes it, the product will not succeed. Good insight and I did not figure out why it works.

I disagree with captain jack. Your blog succeeds on several levels and one of them is your ability to communicate your insights (usually in a humorous way). Thanks for the laughs!

[Guill]

Is it quite the same reason why people on reality shows are dumb ? :)

[Spire]

I LOVED the dilbert tv show! In fact, at the bare mentioning of it I was compelled to go find a torrent for it (lol wrong place to say that I guess!), but I guess I wont considering it was cancelled early... how many episodes were done?

[Tim]

So how do you explain Ritz crackers?

[rgosal]

Actually I thoroughly enjoyed the Dilbert animated series. Bought it pretty much the same day the DVD was released. Was wondering if there is any chance of more epsiodes, direct to video animated DVD, or prehaps even just more episodes on the web?

Either way damn funny stuff, . . .

[Paul]

I think this one post will have more impact on people who read your blog than everything you've written prior.

[Jedi Kevin]

Scott,

How's the burrito business? I mean "Dilburrito."

[Robert Hamilton]

I did not know or guess the right answer, which makes perfect sense. I'm reading a book by Robert Ringer (Action - Nothing Happens Until Something Moves) which says what you say about the law of averages and timing. His main point is about taking action versus letting things happen. Good Post.

[Paul Southworth]

I've experienced this with my own comic strip, "Ugly Hill".

http://www.uglyhill.com

Most people seem to like it, a few people love it, but no one hates it. It upsets me. I must make a more concerted effort to offend someone's sensibilities.

[what the duck]

Scott you nailed it.
I started a comic strip, on a whim, in July.
My wife hates it.
4000 photographers love it.
Go figure.

[Chris (no the other Chris)]

Where is the "Dilberito" on your list -- success, failure, or perhaps not yet determined?

I tried (and failed) to find one some years ago after you mentioned it in a DNRC letter. I'm a candidate to be in the "Love It" category, but I can't be until I actually eat one and decide that it tastes good to me.

I probably should ask the local Whole Foods to carry it, but it's hard to evangelize for a product you've never tried.

[-drew]

Talking about strength in beliefs:

(Regarding the Amish schoolhouse shooting): The Amish asked that a portion of the donations be shared with Roberts’ widow and three small children. Her husband was their sole source of income.

http://local.lancasteronline.com/4/26691

That is forgiveness.

[Xeknos]

Just look at Firefly, the TV series. It was cancelled after 12 episodes or so, but a few of them weren't even aired and the majority of them were out of order. If you looked at it with just that information, you could call it a failure because a bunch of people didn't like it -- if they did, it would have stayed long.

But how many cancelled TV shows become movies? Firefly spawned the movie Serenity because of the 10-20% of people that loved it and had passion for it. I think this helps to prove your success theory.

[Mike]

U looking for the Econ nobel prize? It ain't gonna happen ;)

[Patrick]

Finally, something of yours that I can agree with entirely. We just went through this same process of discovery with an innovative software product. Everyone we talked to agreed that there was a "need" for the product, and they could really see a use for it in their organization. However, nobody "wanted" it enough to part with their money. So, while we defined the decision not with "like" vs. "love" but "need" vs. "want", it's the exact same idea. In business, it's not enough for people to need your product, they have to want it, and want it enough to give you money for it. Otherwise, the product is doomed for failure. We pulled the plug.

[Gabe]

There goes The Man again, holding whitey down.

[Mason]

I don't know why your animated series failed, but your reasoning makes sense. I think it should have been able to make a comeback on Cartoon Network's Adult Swim Sunday nights, because if anyone were going to get passionate about grown-up animated humor, that's where they'd be.

By the way, have you checked the Amazon reviews for that series? These guys just loved it. Give it some time and maybe you'll be able to pull a Family Guy and get it picked back up by the networks. http://www.amazon.com/products/dp/B0000WN15E/

For what it's worth - anytime it was on, I watched it, even if it meant staying up until 2am, as it often did.

[Cosbert]

Kim Scarborough:
On defining success, if you are successful you don't need someone else to define it for you. If you need someone else to define it for you, you aren't, so it doesn't really matter since nobody can really tell you what success is for you.

Billy:
you say (in response to yesterdays post..)
Can’t we first try to educate them? Killing them seems awfully harsh.
We've tried to educate them, the problem is that whether you believe in 'free will' or not, these 'people' (and I use that term very loosily when it comes to these folks) are more like infected plague rats than people. They have been infected with a thought process that can not be repaired.

Liberalism can be cured by the truth, radical islam can only be cured by death, so that the disease doesn't get passed on.

[Sexton Lovecraft]

Ah yes, polarise people. And, luck is merely being prepared for an opportunity. Stay sharp, stay frosty. Also, don't forget Jack Trout and that other author he writes with. They know that "everyone knows Japanese cars are more reliable than American cars", even when you're sat in your Japanese car waiting for the breakdown truck to arrive .....

[Mark Thorson]

What was the invention that
someone already patented?
Do you remember the patent
number?

[captain jack sparrow]

Well, obviously you were very hurt by the reverse discrimination, because even now you keep mentioning it.
Let it go, mate.
Your destiny lay in a higher plane.
You were not yet aligned with your existential universe.
Thank the *master programmer* you werent succesful in your first career.

Let it go, mate.

[-drew]

It comes down to two things: true desire and an exit strategy.

True desire is what you believe without having to convince yourself. For me, I find that if I wish for an outcome, I won't get it. If I believe in an outcome, it happens.

My problem is seperating the wish from the belief. I have applied for a job, knowing that I will get it (and did). I have wished for a job, and not gotten it.

Your tales speak of the same thing. The problem is that both a wish and a belief serve the same desire or need. It is hard to seperate a wish from a desire. I find that if I have to convince myself or speak positively about something, it is a wish. A belief just exists; it doesn't need supplemental convincing.

Regarding an exit strategy: my opinion is that everyone should have one for anything they do. Set a limit for how much work or money you will put into a project; that is your limit STICK TO IT! If you will be succesful, it will happen. If you wish to be succesful, probably not.

Case studies:
(1) Peter Jackson fished the Lord of the Rings movies to something like 20 production companies (the first production company didn't agree with his vision). After that, he would give up the project. New Line was the last production company.

(2) Gary Larson went to California to see if anyone wanted his comic. He had a weekend. He brought one set of drawings and gave it to one paper. The paper hired him and syndicated his drawings.

(3) I was going to use Scott as an example, but I don't have enough information.

PS: I am trying to determine if my desire to be a movie / tv director someday is a wish or belief.

[LA Clay]

Are you calling me fat?

[Ken]

"...when the TV show Baywatch was tested, ... 10% of the test audience had tents in their pants.
Dilbert was the same way."

Um... not for me. I mean I like Dilbert, and all, but... it's not tentable.

;-)

[cube critter]

Passion. that was my initial response. my wife is passionate about her work while i am not. it Explains alot. comparing apples to apples I would point to Star Trek as further Proof. most people i have ever known think it is the gayest stuff on the screen. I happen to think its alright, my cube neighbor makes a distrubing twittery noise when opens his Flip Phone. Are most people shame-faced hypocrits or is the passion of the few a more influencial force. I never got to see the Dilbert series on TV. I Don't watch much TV and I wasn't aware of it when it was on even though i did read the srtip every sunday. Did i miss much? maybe I just Like Dilbert.

[weedman]

I loved the TV show when it was shown in Argentina.

Please tell us more inside details about it (and it unfortunate lack of success, if such thing) and how it was decided, etc.

Thanks!

[Jim Wilson]

So what you're saying is that once you get to ten whacky schemes for bringing peace to the Middle East we should try them all - one after the other - because one of them will probably work?

[Playtah]

That rule applies to other areas of life, too. For example, I told some of my friends that I was thinking of posting a comment on your post today. They immediately wanted me to post a comment on their blogs, too, and the blogs of their family members. As predicted, they never mentioned a price.

I will have a good Christmas this year.

--Playtah

[Ryan Ballantyne]

I definitely think you are right on the 'everyone likes' vs some people 'love'. If everyone likes your product, once the hype around it has worn off and some people have bought one, your product just fades away into the background. However, if you have some people who will kill for your brand, they will always be a market - they keep the hype going. They too are the best sales people... (note: PC) Just look at the dreaded Trekkie's or Star Wars Freaks, no offence, but those guys are so cray about the brand they support, George Lucas is laughing all the way to the bank...

I work for a outdoor clothing company and when have people who absolutely love our products, whiles we have some who could care less or not be bothered. Yet we are 'Proudly South African Company (SME)of the Year' and one of the most successful brands in the country. The other important factor is the fact that from the board to the casual store assistants are really passionate about the brand and would support it come thick or thin. The employees of the company make up part of those who are extremely passionate about the product and probably wouldn't wear anything else when it comes to outdoor clothing...

Lastly, if you don't risk, you cannot expect a return! Therefore, if its a 1 in 10 of working, you usually end up retiring on that one!

[goneflirting]

speaking of luck and timing! just last night realized that everytime i cut my losses and move on; my life improves.

[Amit]

How about when a group of people absolutely hate your idea ? Should you keep looking for a group who would love it.

On another note, seeing the comments on your blog, it seems a success. People either love it or hate it.

[Erich]

Thanks Scott for helping to understand and thankfully know that even you had your ups and downs. It seems as though all the time spent in corporate jobs was nothing more than the prerequisite for Dilbert. Like taking a prerequisite course in college. But, doesn't it seem as though the success percentages are reversed now that you have something to build more success off of? Have you found it easier to make a success now than before?

Here's two great articles about Personal Success:

http://erichblog.typepad.com/erichs_thoughts_and_then_/2005/12/success_is_base.html

http://erichblog.typepad.com/erichs_thoughts_and_then_/2006/10/success_defined.html

[Kingsofnowhere]

Ok so I find this all very encouraging. It would be even more encouraging to hear that the10% is optional. We crackpots hate having to meet such lofty targets.

[Tim the Brit]

Scott, just one question that I would personally love to see a post on - what was the biggest failure you've had to date? Even though most people see you as god-like (and no, I'm not referring to the performance review you've illustrated before that's useful for getting rid of bad employees) it would be nice to see that human side one more, potentially-embarrassing time.

[Keith]

Won't a person bail out of a bad business situation only when their moist robot programming tells them too? Your post makes it sound like you and everyone else has a free will to make these choices, but I was under the imperssion you didn't believe in free will. So now I'm more confused, and should probably take the opportunity to go vote.

[Kim Scarborough]

I got it right, but I'm not sure if I'm "successful". Define successful and I'll tell you if I'm it.

[BarbB]

If everyone likes the idea/product, then it is nothing special; it's middle-of-the-road, average, medium, common, familiar, comfortable. It does not the energy or stimulation needed to move people to take out their wallets.

Of the top of my head, I can think of 6 things I've tried that have bombed. It would be nice if number 7 worked. Then I would not have to waste my time and money doing 8 through 10.

[Rachel Life]

I understood the prediction. Passion, both positive and negative, is way more powerful than mild acceptance. I know this because most of my life I have had to reject the mild mainstream dictums about how I *should* live my life in favor of the ways to live my life that sparked my passion. the success I feel is not necessarily the kind that anyone else would notice as the successes are largely personal (great marriage, hobbies, lifestyle) but I am also working toward the brass ring of a Ph.D., which of course I will not use the way most of my peers will.
I hope I just raised the collective IQ of your comment-writing-cohort.

[Planned Obsolescence]

Thank you, Professor Adams.

When is the "real" Dilbert Blog returning?

[Mark]

Great thoughts. You've covered the "love factor" and the "take-it-or-leave-it" factor, but what about the hate factor?

Does it follow that a certain percentage who "hate" an idea directly leads to failure of the idea or does it get into the fine line between love and hate, such that hatred for an idea doesn't necessarily indicate failure. Maybe it's just not the right subset of people?

[Koos]

My second favorite blog is about the passionate users thing:

this: http://headrush.typepad.com/creating_passionate_users/

This blog post caused me to know the answer to your question:

http://headrush.typepad.com/creating_passionate_users/2005/10/keep_the_sharp_.html

I think creating passionate users is way more fun than making the everybody-likes-grey stuff (-:

[Billy B]

Many people fail in business because they don't keep it simple, and get to flashy at first. And often just because others hold them up. Others have their own agendas. I invented a tool once that was patentable, but lost interest in the process and sold the rights to another man. I don't care about the money, just creating and doing things.

After reading the “Grand Talipoobah” post more carefully, I’m going to address a few things. See how I am? “And then there are the Taliban who are essentially monkeys with guns.”…. I don’t recall, which of us started calling humans, monkeys first. Actually, I’ve been calling them that for years.

“Now before you go and accuse me of racial insensitivity, remember that the Taliban are my race (Caucasian). They are simply uneducated.” …. Right on brother, and brainwashed.

“What I’m about to say will seem unkind, but it’s an objective fact that almost everything the Taliban do can be taught to a chimp, e.g. ride motorcycles, shoot rifles, eat, wear pajamas, poop.” …. LOL. What about drugs, they seem to make a lot of them. Someone in that messed up country does anyway.

“If you make a list of all the things monkeys do NOT do, then compare it to the list of things the Taliban likewise do NOT do, you’d find a lot of similarities. Monkeys don’t read and write, don’t use computers, don’t play Scrabble, don’t invent anything, and so forth. To be fair, the Taliban do have language skills whereas monkeys can only use sign language. But the point is that we shouldn’t use the same strategy with the Taliban that we use with the smart terrorists. We’ll have to kill the smart terrorists. We can outsmart the dumb ones.”…. Can’t we first try to educate them? Killing them seems awfully harsh.

“Here’s my plan. I call it the Grand Talipoobah.” Maybe you should have called it the Talipoopah, the P makes all the difference in the world. LOL

“This probably won’t be the plan that wins me the Nobel Peace Prize. But can you think of any reason it wouldn’t work?” …. Yeah, but don’t get me started, you know how I get. :-)

[Schrodingers Gnu]

That kind of reminds me of the hundreds of times I've patiently tried to explain to the Linux fanatics why Gates isn't really worrying about the competition. To replace a major technology, the new one must fulfill at least two out of these three criteria:

- Significantly technically superior to the original (i.e. faster, more efficient, etc)
- Significantly cheaper
- Significantly easier to use

Linux, while being free, does fulfill the second, but not the other two, so it doesn't have a chance. Mac might make a claim for the third, but not the first two, so same story there.

Yet it doesn't seem to penetrate... "Hey, I'm gonna make an alternative to Office and I'll release it for free! Now the evil empire will surely shake in ther boots!"

[C.S. Rowan]

This explains why terrorism is so successful. Ten percent of people (i.e. terrorists and sympathizers) are passionate about destroying the corrupt power-mongering United States. Of course, less than 10% of the corrupt, power-mongering United States is passionate about becoming the honorable, peace-loving United States. Unless they can convert another 3% or so, terrorists will continue to have a perfect target to be passionate about.

[RJ]

I'm wondering if the definition aught to be expanded to include those things that immediately offend being a predictor of success. Based on the 10% principle, if 90% of the people exposed to something are offended by it, surely the 10% that are not offended enjoy said product or service to support it and thus guaranty success. Take t-shirts, for example. Most that sell by the hundreds seem to be low-brow humor, designed to offend, yet I see them for sale in most places I've traveled.

[Robert]

My mother always used to say that "good taste is merely appealling to the lowest common denominator"

[Griff]

Scott,
Maybe you fail because you are secrectly bad at math. 3 succuesses and 30 failures is 1 out of 11 or a 9.1% success rate. You might have a good point though in your ramblings about how a few fanatics can create a hit.

[Jon]

Great post Scott.

I figured the key to a good idea was something like that. So many things end up just being a 'good idea' versus an actual honest-to-god viable solution to a problem.

Building a support base with a small group of die-hard supporters creates so much more momentum than mass advertising to many many people.

[Matt Blackstone]

Not to be a smartass or anything(ok, it is to be a smartass), but I have to point out that if you have 3 successes, and 30 failures, you have actually failed 10/11 times, not 9/10. You have a 10:1 failure to success ratio. And to answer your question, I am anal retentive.

[PB2]

*Bail* out.

[Himanshu Narvekar]

I was planning to do an MBA some time back, now i think i should just read your blog. Every now and then you come up with something inspirational, interesting or really educational. I am surely going to try this test that you mentioned above... Keep educating. :)

[Daniel]

I miss animated Dilbert a lot :-( even when they put them at 3:00 am :-/ how many episodes are? i remember cursing when they send reruns... is there a dvd or download site somewhere?? i want them !

[Stoned Lion]

That's one of the most profound things I have seen or heard all year. Thanks for increasing business IQ today.

[EEK]

I think another factor in your success is that it doesn't sound as if you're easily discouraged. You keep trying by taking measured risks despite past failures knowing that eventually something is going to work.

By the way, I received News Radio from netflix on dvd the other day and saw the episode where Matthew becomes obsessed with Dilbert. Is that really you that does the guest appearance on the show? I was just curious.

[Dunbar]

You could also write one of those self-help motivational type of books. Not that I would buy it, though (i may not be in the 10%, if that 10% exists in this case).
But before you write that, I recommend you read "I moved your cheese".

[Bill]

Another thought on why you want people to have passion about your product (besides the obvious):

Dad used to work in corporate sales. He told me he'd much rather have a client who hated his product than one who didn't care one way or the other. The reason is that someone who hates your idea already cares about it. They'll actually listen to what you say, if only to look for a chance to shoot you down. You've got a chance to reach them and convince them. If they're indifferent, they don't listen at all, and it's usually very hard to break that indifference.

Hot is best. Cold is workable. Lukewarm sucks.

[Huiko]

So have you invented that umbrella? And, if so, where do you live?

[DJH]

Actually Scott I loved the Dilbert TV Show though I thought the voices were an odd choice. Also another thing I have noticed with success. Someone else usually does it first and it fails. I think it has to do with working the bugs out.

[Screwy McScrewball]

I use the exact same logic when looking for women. honestly.

[HAW HAW]

Thank you, sir. I think you may have helped me make a decision about a business idea I have. Thank you.