Abraham's long been ahead of the curve when it comes to blogging. Three years ago, he interviewed me among 27 New York-area bloggers for a lengthy feature on the medium's growing influence:
[Alex] Belth and many other bloggers were first inspired by Aaron Gleeman, Jay Jaffe and David Pinto, the Willie, Mickey and the Duke of this fledgling genre. They were among the first and are now three of the best-read bloggers.
Jaffe, 34, started "Futility Infielder" three years ago. Once primarily a Yankees blog, he has branched out to cover all baseball.
"I developed a penchant for lengthy lunchtime e-mails involving stat-based baseball arguments. My friends invited me to leave them alone and start a blog," he said via e-mail. "The rest is history. I don't watch very much TV, besides ballgames, or see many movies since I started doing this. I've always got a couple of ideas I'm working on, even if only in my head, to the point where it's become like the music of my mind."
A question about said feature leads off the YFSF interview, but the meatier stuff comes in further down:
YFSF: What do you see happening with the Yankees post-Steinbrenner, and how close are we to that time (or are we already there)? What are your impressions of Steve Swindal?
PA: I think we are already at the post-Steinbrenner phase. His health is one of the most closely guarded stories in sports and that is obviously because it is fading. I believe that Brian Cashman, Randy Levine and Steve Swindal make 95 percent of the decisions and once George gives up his title or passes away, Swindal will be the man in charge with Cashman at his side. I like Steve a lot, his recent arrest aside. I think he will do what is right. But I don't believe you'll see the Yankees with a payroll $50 million higher than any other team.
YFSF: You've been fairly critical of the Boston moves this off-season. Do you see them falling behind the Jays again?
PA: I think Boston's offense is a house of cards. They're relying far too much on second-tier players in important positions. J.D. "Nancy" Drew will be a terrible fit. That said, they have great starters and it's all about pitching. But how do you go into the season without a closer?
Nancy Drew -- gotta kick myself for not coming up with that one, even though I don't think the Sox's new rightfielder will have much trouble adjusting to Boston. Abraham does have a point in that the Sox probably should have made a few other upgrades, particularly at first base, where Kevin Youkilis is really not much better than a league average.
Update: I knew I forgot something... last summer Pete did a fine "Designated Hitter" piece for the Baseball Analysts website on Joe Torre's facility with the media and his ability to conjure a story for any occasion. Now that's what I'm talking about.
As announced last week, Baseball Prospectus 2007 is on the New York Times Bestseller List for the first time in its 12-year history. The March 18 list had BP07 at #15 on the Paperback Advice, How-To and Miscellaneous list, while on the March 25 one, we're up to #9. Look out, What to Expect When You're Expecting bitchez (ironically, published by BP's former publisher).
A reminder that I'll be on the promo trail for BP this week and next:
Thursday, March 22, 6:00 PM with Christina Kahrl, Steven Goldman, Neil DeMause, Derek Jacques, and Will Weiss
Columbia University Lerner Hall 2920 Broadway (@ 114th Street) New York, NY
Saturday, March 24, 2:00 PM with Christina Kahrl, Steven Goldman, Ben Murphy, John Erhardt, Neil DeMause, Jim Baker, Derek Jacques, Will Weiss, Clay Davenport, Will Carroll, Kevin Goldstein, and Marc Normandin
Yogi Berra Musuem Monclair State University 8 Quarry Road Little Falls, NJ 07424 973-655-2378
Monday, March 26, 6:00 pm with Steven Goldman and Neil DeMause
Barnes & Noble Yale University 77 Broadway New Haven, CT 06511 203-777-8440
If you're not in the area, see the BP events page for local listings in your market (not that all are as well-served as the Tri-State area).
Last weekend, I got my copy of Bombers Broadside, which is now shipping from Amazon.
It's a nice piece of work, 112 pages of glossy, full color, pinstripe-flavored content about the current team as well as its illustrious history -- including features about the 1977 champions, and Babe Ruth's (in)famous "Called Shot" -- sure to appeal to Yankee fans, and featuring a roster that includes myself, editor Cecilia Tan, Alex Belth, Mike Carminati, Vince Genarro, Gary Gillette, Mark Healey, Derek Jacques, Tara Krieger, David Laurila, Dan McCourt, and Pete Palmer. I'll wager a guess that more than one of those names means something to those of you reading this, so cut yourself a slice. Belth's bittersweet piece on his childhood memories of Reggie Jackson and his recently deceased father is worth the price of admission alone.
JJ: Very, as this kid looks to be the real deal, not to mention the cornerstone of a plan that might see the Yanks rein in their payroll a bit and reap the benefits of growing their own pitchers. That said, I don't think he should start the season with the Yankees no matter how good a spring he has. The scattered April schedule means more days off and fewer opportunities for a fifth starter, and let's face it, the Yanks aren't going to introduce him in the rotation as anything higher than that because the pressure is too great, the hype too overwhelming.
The additional benefit of waiting is the increased likelihood that Hughes won't have enough service time to be arbitration-eligible after the 2009 season, as it takes three full years except for the "Super Twos" (the top 1/6 of the players who have just under three years of service time). That's not an abstract issue, because young pitchers, even great ones, get hurt all the time, and the longer you can wait before you have to pay him big bucks, the better.
Geez, I've already got Hughes to the point of being an overpriced, broken-down bum like Carl Pavano. Sorry about that.
YFSF: Losing Sheff and Randy: addition by subtraction? How do you rate the Yankee offseason?
JJ: To the extent that it rids the Yankees of two aged and potentially fragile players who often create distractions, addition by subtraction is an apt term. That said, I will miss Gary Sheffield; he was a pleasure to watch when he was healthy here, whether he was cracking home runs, ripping life-threatening foul balls down the leftfield line, or simply waving that bat like a tiger waiting to pounce. Or even jabbering about whatever perceived slight he'd endured; that's Gary being Gary just like Manny is Manny. So long as he's not committing any crimes, you just have to laugh at the hubbub about what he says or does and let the guy hit.
The bottom line is that 38-year-olds coming off soft-tissue wrist injuries aren't the horses to be betting on, particularly when they seem more concerned with their next contract than the distraction they cause. He'll be missed, but let Detroit deal with his luggage.
As for Johnson, the same goes doubly for 43-year-old pitchers coming off of back surgery and dealing with Synvisc injections, terminal surliness and potential mullet regrowth. I really wish things had worked out better for him in New York -- he's a favorite from way back, even when he was handing the Yanks their lunch money -- but he was pretty much just a more durable Kevin Brown last year. Blech.
I do like the direction the Yanks went this offseason, stockpiling young arms in deals for those two and elsewhere (such as the Jaret Wright trade, which brought Chris Britton in return). Growing your own pitching is a tremendously worthwhile endeavor that can save the Yankees millions of dollars worth of bad contracts in the future. The fewer Pavanos, the better.
YFSF: Willy Mo Pena: future star, or Boston's Balboni?
JJ: Pena's a curious collection of raw talents and bad habits. The dude can hit, though his plate discipline leaves something to be desired, and his defense... aye chihuahua. It will be interesting to see if any of what he diid last year in the wake of his wrist injury carries over; he showed more patience and ability to hit to all fields than in the past, and I've heard reports that he handled breaking balls better than previously.
Pena's certainly more athletic than Balboni ever was, but not so much that he should be allowed to play centerfield ever again. I wonder if they can teach him to play first base. Keeping on the Balboni comparison, he'll almost certainly enjoy a much better career; remember that he was playing semi-regularly at 22 where Balboni didn't get a full shot until age 27. Huge difference from a developmental standpoint.
YFSF: Moose: There's a strong statistical case for the Hall. Will he make it? Should he?
JJ: Moose is one of nine active or recently retired pitchers whose JAWS scores are better than the average Hall of Fame pitcher:
Pitcher Career Peak JAWS Clemens 192.9 83.5 138.2 Maddux 165.6 81.9 123.8 R. Johnson 136.6 78.1 107.4 Glavine 129.4 61.4 95.4 Martinez 113.7 75.3 94.5 Mussina 110.1 62.5 86.3 Smoltz 114.1 57.7 85.9 Schilling 103.3 63.4 83.4 K. Brown 100.5 62.9 81.7 Avg HOF P 99.0 62.7 80.9
He's in the middle of the pack here, but the problem is that he's lacking the three major peripherals which could get him over the top without having 300 wins (he's at 239 and counting): no Cy Young award, no World Championship, and no postseason dominance (he's 7-8 with a 3.40 ERA, respectable but hardly Gibsonesque). Compare that to Schilling, who's behind him here and in wins (207) but has an 8-2, 2.06 ERA line in postseason, including two rings. Compare that to Smoltz (193 wins plus 154 saves) and a 15-4, 2.65 line in October, including one ring. Moose will suffer by comparison in the eyes of voters.
YFSF: What's your analysis of the Boston closer situation? Are the Sox better off with Paps in the pen or the rotation? Is the closer-by-commitee solution tenable in Boston?
JJ: The closer situation right now looks like a 2003-esque trainwreck in the making. Mike Timlin's nursing oblique issues while coming off a year where he really showed his age; he would't last the year as closer. Joel Pineiro is a worthwhile gamble; anytime you move a starter to the bullpen, you let him narrow his repertoire to the pitches he throws well, dodge his stamina issues and reap the benefits of increased fastball velocity. But Pineiro's got mechanical issues that need solving before he can be what the Sox envision. I have a feeling they'll start the year with Julian Tavarez or Brendan Donnelly in the role just as the last man standing, and I think they have to have somebody in there, because the moment "closer-by-committee" is whispered to a reporter, the ghost of Grady Little will come out of the woodwork and it will be hell for Terry Francona and Theo Epstein.
I expect the team to make a trade before they'll go that route. If I were them I'd see what it takes to land Fernando Rodney or some other closer in waiting.
I think the Sox have to respect the needs and wishes of Papelbon to return to the rotation, as good as he was in the bullpen. You can't have him turning up sore-shouldered in September. Just as importantly, I don't think there was any guarantee he'd continue his early-season dominance once the league got more looks at him.
YFSF: How does the division shake out? Do the Rays pass the O's? Are the Jays a serious threat? Will the division get the wild card?
JJ: I still see the Yanks ahead of the Red Sox because they've got fewer question marks, particularly in the bullpen. If I'm a Sox fan, I'm concerned about Mike Lowell bouncing back to the way he hit in the first half, about underpowered Kevin Youkilis at first, about Coco Crisp returning to form. Aside from Pavano and the gaping hole at first base, I don't think there's anybody on the Yankees that gives as much concern, and at least in the former case, the Yanks have some warm bodies to bridge the gap until the point where Phil Hughes is ready.
As for the rest, it's still tough to envision the Jays cracking the top two, not with gimps Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka and John Thomson as potentially 3/5 of their rotatoin. Nor is it easy to see the Rays leaving the cellar without improvements to their rotation. If they can convert their surplus of outfielders -- Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes, B.J. Upton (yeah, that's likely where he'll settle) -- into some pitching, I like their chances better, but until then, no.
As for the Wild Card, I think the AL Central, which could have the Tigers, Twins, Indians and White Sox all competing, may yet again threaten the return of the East's second-place team to the postseason. Last year was quite a reminder that there's no birthright which guarantees both teams make the postseason, though I expect the Red Sox to make a much stronger go of it than in 2006.
For the first time in the colorful 12-year history of the BP annual, we have cracked the New York Times Bestseller List. Or will; as of March 18 (next Sunday), BP07 will be ranked #15 on the Advice, How-To and Miscellaneous list. Ergo, the 19 of us who contributed to this year's book and are listed on its title page are best-selling authors now, not that any of us are able to dine out on said laurels just yet. Anyway, a happy day here for the BP family.
My travels caused me to delay the posting of Part I of a two-part interview I did for the fine Yanksfan vs Soxfan blog on -- guess what? -- the AL East's big dogs as they stack up this year. Here's one of the exchanges:
YFSF:Josh Beckett and Chien-Ming Wang: They are the sabermetric paradox. Do you expect a big turnaround from Beckett? Can we expect another big year from Wang?
JJ: Beckett's more of an enigma than a paradox. It remains to be seen whether he can harness his curveball while at the same time keeping free of the blister problems that have plagued his career; last year he wore a band-aid between starts and it prevented him from tossing the curve in bullpen sessions. If Lester is healthy, the Sox might have enough depth in the rotation to cover for a 150-inning season from Beckett where he does throw the curve and deals with the consequences. But right now there are a lot of questions about Schilling, about Matsuzaka, about Wakefield, and about Papelbon, so that may be too risky.
Wang is certainly a paradox in that he succeeds while striking out only about 3.1 hitters per nine. But so long as he throws mid-90s heat with that great movement on his sinker, I expect him to throw a lot of innings and be pretty successful, if not quite so so much as last year. He'll never be an ace, I don't think, but especially at his current price, he's a very valuable commodity and fun to watch as well.
Part II of this home-and-home series will be posted in this space on Monday. As you read Part I, please note that the introduction includes one innacuracy that bears correction. As I've said in this space, I covered the Dodgers and Red Sox for BP07; Steven Goldman is the one who wrote about the Yankees.
This morning I recorded a radio spot for WGBB 1240 AM's Sports Break with Joel Blumberg. Over the course of about 20 mintues (starting 7:45 in), Joel and I talked about Brian Cashman's bold power play, the Mets' middle relief, the Red Sox's winter spending, and (sigh) the impact of steroids on the single season and all-time home run records. You can hear it all here.
Quote of the Week "On my initial approach to the ball, I underestimated the velocity off the Milwaukee terrain. Therefore, I was rendered defenseless to field the aforementioned ball." -- Dodger centerfielder Milton Bradley waxes eloquent over a misplay after hitting a game-winning two-run homer in the 10th inning to beat the Brewers.
Box Score Line of the Week 5 AB, 3 R, 4 H, 10 RBI, 3 HR -- Yankee Alex Rodriguez scores a hat trick against Bartolo Colon and the Angels on April 26.
