XII. Biographical and Bibliographic Notes

Biographies and brief surveys of the activities of research associates during 1942–1946 and of research consultants and assistants during 1945–1946 follow.

After the biography of each staff member are given first his publications in the series of Cowles Commission Monographs and Papers (for full titles see Section XI), next his other publications, and finally his papers presented orally.

Similar material for earlier years will be found in Decennial Report, 1932–1941.

MARIANNE ABELES, fellow of the Department of Economics and candidate for the Ph.D. degree, was a part-time research assistant during the first half of 1946, collecting statistical data for Klein's studies on economic models in the U.S.A.

THEODORE W. ANDERSON, JR. (B.S., Northwestern, 1939; M.A., Princeton, 1942, Ph.D., 1945) was a research associate from November, 1945, to September, 1946, when he became an instructor in mathematical statistics at Columbia University, continuing as a research consultant of the Commission.
     He was an instructor at Princeton University, 1941–48, and a research mathematician of the Statistical Research Group there, 1943–45. He is the author of several papers on mathematical statistics.

  • "The Non-Central Wishart Distribution and Certain Problems of Multivariate Statistics," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 17, December, 1946, pp. 409–431.
  • (With M.A. Girshick and H. Rubin) "Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Stochastic Difference Equation in a Complete System," presented at Washington, April 12, 1946, before a joint regional meeting of the Washington Chapters of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association.
  • (With Herman Rubin) "Estimation of Structural Equations through Linear Transformation of Regression Coefficients," presented at Ithaca, August 23, 1946, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 17, December, 1946, pp. 503–504).

WILLIAM H. ANDREWS, JR. (B.S., Indiana, 1933, A.M., 1937) was a research associate from July 1943, to March 1944, when he became an ensign in the United States Naval Reserve and served in the Pacific.
     Andrews was an instructor in economics at Purdue University, 1937–1941, a fellow at the University of Chicago, 1942–1943, and a research associate of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, 1943–1944.

KENNETH J. ARROW (B.S., College of the City of New York, 1940; M.A., Columbia, 1941) joined the staff as a research associate in April, 1947.
     Arrow enlisted for aviation cadet training in meteorology in October, 1942, and served in various positions in the Weather Division of the Army Air Forces; he was separated from the service in February, 1946, with the rank of Captain. He was an instructor in economics at College of the City of New York, summer session, 1946, and an assistant in statistics, School of Business, Columbia University, in the fall of 1946.

EDWARD BOORSTEIN (B.S.S., College of the City of New York, 1936; M.A., Columbia, 1940) joined the staff in the autumn of 1946 as a research associate (with the rank of instructor) in the study of the economics of atomic energy.
     Boorstein was economic assistant to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1940–1942; economist, War Production Board, 1942–1943; economist, Civilian Production Administration, 1946.

GERSHON COOPER (A.B., Chicago, 19412), graduate student in the department of economics, assisted Haavelmo in the work on agricultural models, for the joint project of the Agricultural Economics Group and the Cowles Commission mentioned in Section I.3. He began to work on December 1, 1946, on a part-time basis.

ALFRED COWLES (B.A., Yale, 1913) founded the Cowles Commission in 1932 and has been its president since the beginning.
     For ten years prior to the foundation of the Commission, Cowles maintained a private organization for statistical research on problems pertaining to investment and finance. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and its secretary and, treasurer, a trustee of Colorado College, and a director or trustee of numerous corporations and philanthropic organizations. He is the author of several papers on stock-market topics.

  • "Stock Market Forecasting," presented at Chicago, October 5, 1943, before the Seminar on the Changing Economy.
  • "Stock Market Forecasting," presented at Chicago, November 1, 1944, before the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association.
  • "History of the Cowles Commission," presented at Chicago, July 11, 1945, before the Committee on Instruction and Research of the Board of Trustees of the University of Chicago.

FORREST DANSON (A.B., Colorado College, 1929) joined the staff of the Commission at its beginning in 1932; in March, 1943, he left to take a statistical position in the Any Air Force Materiel Command at Wright Field, Dayton, Ohio.
     Danson was in charge of the computing work of the Commission, and also made various studies of common-stock prices. In 1942–43 he took part in the field work of the study of price control.

HAROLD T. DAVIS (A.B., Colorado College, 1915; A.M., Harvard, 1919; Ph.D. Wisconsin, 1926) was a research associate of the Commission from its beginning in 1932, spending several months of each year in the Commission's laboratory while it was at Colorado Springs and consulting by correspondence at other times. From February to August, 1937, he was acting research director. In 1946 he became a research consultant.
     Davis was professor of mathematics at Indiana University, 1923–1937, and at Northwestern University since 1937, where he is chairman of the department. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He is the author of numerous books and articles, of which those published since 1932 are listed in this report and in the Decennial Report, 1932–1941. He is an associate editor of Econometrica, and has served in the same capacity for Isis and the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society.
     During the years covered by this report he has done extensive work in the construction of mathematical tables and in developing the history and properties of mathematical functions. He has completed the MS of Alexandria, The Golden City, which emphasizes the development of mathematics and science in that center; and has been studying the mathematical interpretation of history, assembling materials for the construction of price series for both the Alexandrian and the Roman economies from about 300 B.C. to 400 A.D. A MS entitled A History of Energy has just been completed; this is a revision and extensive enlargement of the author's Philosophy and Modern Science, Bloomington, Principia Press, 1931.

  • College Algebra, revised and enlarged edition. Prentice-Hall, 1942, xix + 470 pp.
  • Outline of An Encyclopedia of Mathematical Functions, in 20 Volumes, 49 pp. (Mimeographed).
  • "Review of William Fleetwood Shephard, The Probability Integral, and of Project for the Computation of Mathematical Tables, Tables of Probability Functions," in Mathematical Tables and other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, April 1943, pp. 48–51.
  • "Review of Zaki Mursa, Tables of Legendre Associated Functions," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, October 1943, pp. 116–119.
  • "Review of 'Coefficients for Numerical Differentiation with Central Differences,' by H.E. Salzer," .Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, April 1944, pp. 186–187.
  • "Review of 'Table of Fourier Coefficients,' by A.N. Lowan and J. Laderman," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, April 1944, pp. 192–193.
  • "Review of Graphical Solutions, by C.O. Mackey," National Mathematics Magazine, Vol. 19, October, 1944, pp. 49–50.
  • "Review of Elementary Statistical Methods, by Helen M. Walker," National Mathematics Magazine, Vol. 19, November 1944, pp. 100–104.
  • "Archimedes and Mathematics," School Science and Mathematics, Vol. 44, 1944, pp. 136–145, 213–221.
  • "Review of A Treatise on the Theory of Bessel Functions, by G.N. Watson," National Mathematics Magazine, Vol. 19, December 1944, pp. 153–154.
  • "Review of Bateman and Archibald, ‘A Guide .to Tables of Bessel Functions' (Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, July, 1944)," Science, Vol. 101, January 12, 1945, pp. 39–41.
  • "Review of British Association for the Advancement of Science, Mathematical Tables, Vol. IX, Table of Powers Giving Integral Powers of Integers; and of WPA Mathematical Tables Project, Table of the First Ten Powers of Integers from 1 to 1000," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, January 1945, pp. 355–356.
  • "Review of G.W. King, 'Punched-card Tables of Exponential Functions,' (Review of Scientific Instruments, Vol. 15, 1944, pp. 349–350); and of G.B. Thomas and G.W. King, 'Preparation of Punched-card Tables of Logarithms' (ibid., p. 350)," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, April 1945, pp. 399–400.
  • "Review of H.W. Holtappel, Tafels 'Von ex," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 1, October, 1945, pp. 437–438.
  • "Review of Friedrich Tolke, Praktische Funktionenkhre, Erster Band, Elementare und elementare transzendente Funktionen," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 2, January 1946, pp. 23–24.
  • "Review of Karl Stumpf, Tafeln und Aufgaben zur harmonischen Analyse und Periodogrammrechnung," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 2, January 1946, pp. 32–33.
  • "Review of H.E. Salzer, 'Inverse Interpolation for Eight-, Nine-, Ten-, and Eleven-Point Direct Interpolation,'" Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 2, April 1946, p. 73.
  • "Review of NYMPT, Tables of Associated Legendre Functions," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Comptutation, Vol. 2, April 1946, pp. 79–80.
  • "Review of NYMPT, Binomial Distribution Functions," Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 2, July 1946, pp. 120–121.
  • "Some Problems in Econometrics," presented at Lake Forest College, March 10, 1942.
  • "Dinner with Archimedes," presented at Crawfordsville, Indiana, April 24, 1942, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of America (abstract in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 49, November 1942, p. 582). Also presented at Chicago, October 1942, before the Men's Mathematics Club of Chicago.
  • "A Mathematical Theory of Income and Its Consequences," presented at Crawfordsville, Indiana, April 25, 1942, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of America (abstract in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 49, November 1942, p. 582).
  • "Luncheon with Euclid," presented at Evanston, October, 1942, before the Women's Mathematics Club of Chicago.
  • "Dinner with CleopatraIII presented at Chicago, November 17,1942, before Phi Delta Kappa.
  • "Mathematical Patterns in History," presented at Evanston, December 2, 1942, as retiring address of the president of the Northwestern University Chapter of Sigma Xi.
  • "The Econometric Problem," presented at Evanston, January 19, 1943, before Sigma Delta Epsilon, women's scientific organization of Northwestern University.
  • "The Saddle-Point Method (Method of Steepest Descents) in Approximation," presented at Ames, May 12, 1943, before the Mathematics Seminar, Iowa State College.
  • "Serial Correlation," presented at Ames, May 12, 1943, before the statistical Seminar, Iowa State College.
  • " Alexandria, the Golden City," presented at Ames, May 13, 1943, before the Graduate School, Iowa State College.
  • "The Econometric Theory of History," presented at Ames, May 13, 1943, before the Social Science Seminar, Iowa State College.
  • "The History of Price Movements," presented at Chicago, August 25, 1943, before the Seminar on the Changing Economy.
  • "Orthogonal Functions, II presented at Chicago, October 13, 1943, before the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association.
  • "Archimedes and Mathematics," presented at Chicago, November 27, 1943, before the Central Association of School Science and Mathematics Teachers, Junior College Section.
  • "Price Cycles, Past and Present, and Their Significance," presented at Chicago, March 21, 1944, before Phi Delta Kappa, National Educational Fraternity.
  • "The Saddle-Point Method," presented at Chicago, April 4, 1944, before the Mathematical Club of the University of Chicago.
  • "Alexandria, the Golden City," presented at Chicago, April 22, 1944, before the Chicago Classical Club.
  • "Lessons from Alexandria," presented at Ripon College, Ripon, Wisconsin, May 4, 1944.
  • "The Application of Fractional Operations to a Problem in the Stimulation of Nerves," presented at Chicago, May 12, 1944, before the Mathematical Biophysics Seminar of the University of Chicago.
  • "Utility and the Thermodynamic Analogue," presented at Chicago, October 27, 1944, before the Mathematical Biophysics Seminar of the University of Chicago.
  • "Imagination in Mathematics," presented at Chicago, January 16 and 17, 1945, at the University of Chicago in lecture course on "Mathematics and the Imagination."
  • "Computing as a Fine Art," presented at Chicago, May 18, 1945, before the Men's Mathematical Club of Chicago.
  • "Some Mathematical Aspects of Atomic Energy," presented at Evanston, October 11, 1945, before Pi Mu Epsilon Mathematical Fraternity of Northwestern University.
  • "Social Implications of Atomic Energy," presented at Evanston, November 11, 1945, before the Evanston Fireside Forum.
  • "Mathematics is a Language," presented at Evanston, February 12, 1946, before the Modern Language Seminar of Northwestern University.
  • "The Distribution of Income in Cicero's Time," presented at Cleveland, January 27, 1946, before the Econometric Society, (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 14, April 1946, pp. 184–185).
  • "Some Economic Aspects of Government Debt," presented at Chicago, November 13, 1946, before the Chicago Tax Club.
  • "The Growth of Power and Its Economic Significance," presented at Detroit, November 29, 1946, before the Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers (published in School Science and Mathematics, Vol. 47, 1947, pp. 124–138).

JOEL DEAN (A.B., Pomona, 1927; M.B.A., Harvard, 1929; Ph.D., Chicago, 1936) was a research associate from September, 1939. In 1941 he went on leave of absence to become a price executive in the Office of Price Administration, where he later became director of fuel rationing. He was associated with McKinsey & Co. as a management consultant, 1944–1946. In 1944 he was a visiting professor at the School of Business, Columbia University, and in 1945 resigned from the Commission to accept a position as professor of business economics there.
     Dean was on the staff of the International Business Machines Corporation, 1930–1932; assistant professor of economics, Indiana University, 1934–1937; management consultant, McKinsey, Wellington and Co., 1937–1938; executive secretary of the Conference on Price Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938–1939; assistant professor of statistics and marketing in the School of Business and director of the Institute of Statistics, the University of Chicago, from 1939 till his resignation in 1945. He is the author of Statistical Determination of Costs with Special Reference to Marginal Costs, 1936, and of several articles in statistical and economic journals, chiefly on the subject of costs.

  • "Direct Control of Machinery Prices," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 20, Spring, 1942, pp. 277–289.
  • (With R. Warren James) The Long-Run Behavior of Costs in a Chain of Shoe Stores: A Statistical Analysis, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1942, 54 pp.
  • (As editor, with E.M. Hoover) Readings in the Social Control of Industry, Series of republished articles on economics, Vol. 1, Philadelphia, Blakiston, 1942, 494 pp.
  • "Department-Store Cost Functions," in Lange, McIntyre, and Yntema, Editors, Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, In Memory of Henry Schultz, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1942, pp. 222–254.

BAREND DE VRIES (Candidate Mathematics and Physics, Utrecht, Holland), graduate student in economics, assisted Koopmans and other staff members on part-time basis, in supervising and improving computational work based on new statistical methods. His work started August 1, 1946.

MEYER A. GIRSHICK (M.A., Columbia, 1934, Ph.D., 1946) became a research consultant from January 1, 1946.
     Girshick was research assistant to Professor Harold Hotelling at Columbia University. In 1937 he entered the service of the United States Department of Agriculture, where he was principal statistician in the Bureau of Agricultural Economics till October, 1946, when he joined the sampling staff at the Bureau of the Census. In 1944–1945 he participated in the development of sequential sampling analysis at the Statistical Research Group, Columbia University. He has published numerous articles on mathematical statistics.

  • (With T.W. Anderson and H. Rubin) "Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Stochastic Difference Equation in a Complete System," presented at Washington, April 12, 1946, before a joint regional meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association.
  • (With D. Blackwell) "On the Functions of Sequences of Independent Chance Vectors with Applications to the Random Walk in k Dimensions," presented at Washington, Apri1 12, 1946, before a joint regional meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association.

SOPHIA GOGEK, fellow and graduate student in the department of economics, assisted Klein by collecting economic data on business fluctuations in the U.S.A., 1921–1941.

TRYGVE HAAVELMO (Candy. Oecon., 1933, Ph.D., 1946, Oslo) became a research associate in 1943. He was in residence at Chicago as an instructor in the Department of Economics and a member of the agricultural economics research group from January 1946, to March 1947, when he returned to Norway, continuing his connection with the Commission as a research consultant.
     Haavelmo was a research assistant at the University Institute of Economics in Oslo, Norway, 1933–1938, and lecturer in statistical theory at the University of Aarhus, Denmark, 1938–1939. He studied at various European universities and in 1939–1942 at American universities on an American Scandinavian Foundation Fellowship and a Rockefeller Foundation Fellowship. In 1942–1944 he was statistician of the Norwegian Shipping and Trade Mission in New York, and in 1944–1945 he was commercial secretary of the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Washington. He has published various articles in economic journals in Norway, Denmark, and the United States. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society.

  • "The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations," Econometrica, Vol. 11, January 1943, pp. 1–12.
  • "Statistical Testing of Business-Cycle Theories," The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 25, February 1943, pp. 13–18.
  • "Strukturrelajoner og Planokonomi" (Structural Relations in a Planned Economy), Statsokonomisk Tidskrift, Oslo, 1946, pp. 71–83.

ALBERT G. HART (B.A., Harvard, 1930; Ph.D., Chicago, 1936) served as a research consultant during the first half of 1946.
     Hart was a member of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago (as teaching assistant and instructor) from 1932 to 1939, and at Iowa State College (as associate professor and professor) from 1939 to 1946. He was director of research for the Debt Adjustment Committee of the Twentieth Century Fund, 1937–1938, and has done consulting work for the United States Treasury since 1943 (as resident consultant in Washington, 1943–1944). He was research economist for the Committee for Economic Development, 1944–1946, and visiting professor at Columbia University for the academic year, 1946–1947.

  • (With M.G. de Chazeau, Gardiner C. Means, Howard B. Myers, Herbert Stein, and T.O. Yntema) Jobs and Markets, Committee for Economic Development Research Study, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1946, 143 pp.
  • "The Problem of 'Full Employment': Facts, Issues and Policies," American Economic Review, Vol. 36, Supplement, May 1946, pp. 280–200.
  • "National Budgets and National Policy: A Rejoinder," American Economic Review, Vol. 36, September 1946, pp. 632–600.

LEONID HURWICZ (Ll.M., Warsaw, 1938) was a research associate from 1942 until June, 1946, when he became associate professor of economics at Iowa State College, continuing as a research consultant of the Commission.
     Hurwicz has studied at the London School of Economics, the Postgraduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva, the University of Chicago, and Harvard University, and has held a research and teaching fellowship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1942 he assisted Professor Lange in his work on problems of business-cycle theory and time series, and Professors Dean and Yntema in problems of price determination. From 1942 to 1944 he was a member of the faculty of the Institute of Meteorology of the University of Chicago, engaged in teaching and research, and also taught a course in statistics in the Department of Economics. In 1945–1946 he held a fellowship of the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation.

  • "Aspects of the Theory of Economic Fluctuations," presented at Cleveland, September 13, 1944, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 13, January 1945, p. 78).
  • "Sampling Aspects of Structural Estimation and Prediction," presented at Cleveland, January 25, 1946, before the American Statistical Association, the Econometric Society, and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 14, April 1946, pp. 167–170, and reprinted in Cowles Commission papers, New Series, No.17).
  • "Structural Estimation versus Regressions: Use for Policy and Prediction," presented at Washington, April 13, 1946, before joint regional meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association.
  • "Least Squares and Probability," presented at Chicago, August 21, 1946, before the Mathematical Club of the University of Chicago.

GEORGE KATONA (Ph.D., Gottingen, 1921) joined the staff in January, 1943, as codirector of the study of price control and rationing and assumed the administrative direction of the project. On the completion of this at the end of 1944 he left to take a position in the Division of Program Survey, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, United States Department of Agriculture.
     Katona was associate editor of Der Deutsche Volkswirt (The German Economist), Berlin, 1926–1933, as well as German correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, 1929–1933. He worked as an economic adviser in New York, 1934–1938. In 1938 and 1939 he did psychological research under grants-in-aid from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. As fellow of the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation from 1940 to 1942 he conducted investigations in war economics. He was connected with the New School for Social Research, New York, from 1935 as a research associate and later as a lecturer. He is the author of numerous articles in economic and psychological journals and of several books, including War without Inflation, The Psychological Approach to Problems of War Economy, New York, 1942.

  • "Psychological Aspects of Business Decisions and Expectations," American Economic Review, Vol. 36, March 1946, pp. 44–62.
  • "Psychological Factors Contributing to Inflation," presented at Chicago, February 7, 1943, before the Seminar on the Changing Economy.
  • "Psychological Studies of Inflationary Attitudes and Expectations," presented at Chicago, March 11, 1943, before the Psychology Club of the University of Chicago.
  • "The Fight against Inflation and Its Social Implications," presented at Chicago, August 7, 1943, before the 22nd Annual Institute of the Society for Social Research.
  • "The Impact of Price Control on Business," presented at Chicago, September 22, 1943, before the Seminar on the Changing Economy.
  • "Psychology and the Analysis of Business Behavior," presented at Chicago, May 16, 1944, as a public lecture of the Department of Economics and the School of Business of the University of Chicago.
  • "Report of Price Control and Rationing," presented at New York, May 6, 1944, before the annual meeting of the Conference on Price Research.

LAWRENCE R. KLEIN (B.A., California, 1942; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1944) became a research associate in November, 1944.
     Klein was George May Fellow and Teaching Fellow at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1943–1944, where he taught economics and statistics. His doctoral thesis, to be published by Macmillan, was on The Keynesian Revolution. During 1945–1946 he held a postdoctoral fellowship from the Social Science Research Council for work on econometric business-cycle theories.

  • "Remarks on the Theory of Aggregation," Econometrica, Vol. 14, October 1946, pp. 303–312 (to be reprinted in Cowles Commission Papers, New Series, No. 19).
    The Keynesian Revolution. Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1944. MS about 200 pages.
  • "Economic Fluctuations in U.S.A., 1921–1941, 67 pages, mimeographed, 1945.
  • (With J. Marschak and Edward Teller) "Dispersal of Cities and Industries," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, April 1946.
  • "Review of E.J. Howenstine, Post-war Markets: A Guide Based upon Official Information," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 54, October 1946, pp. 456–457.
  • "From the Treatise to the General Theory: A Study in Keynesian Economics," presented at Cleveland, September 15, 1944, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 13, January 1945, pp. 84–85).
  • Memorandum on Relocation of Cities, prepared for the Conference on Atomic Energy, The University of Chicago, September 1945 (mimeographed).
  • "Equations of Housing," presented at Washington, D.C., November 15, 1945, before a meeting of representatives of government agencies convened by the Research Division of the National Housing Agency.
  • "Use of Statistical Models in Economic Policy," presented at Washington, November, 1945, before the Division of Tax Research of the Treasury Department.
  • "A Macroeconomic System, U.S.A., 1921–1941," presented at Cleveland, January 24, 1946, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 14, April 1946, pp. 159–162).
  • "Keynesian Economics and the Possibility of Liberal Capitalist Reform," presented at Chicago, April, 1946, before the Political Economy Club, the University of Chicago.
  • "Forecasts of National Product," presented at New York, November 16, 1946, before the Income and Wealth Conference of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

TJALLING C. KOOPMANS (Ph.D., Leiden, 1936) became a research associate in July, 1944. He is associate professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
     Koopmans taught statistics and economics at the Netherlands Economic University and served on the staff of the Netherlands Economic Institute, both at Rotterdam, from 1936 to 1938. From 1938 to 1940 he was engaged in business-cycle research at the League of Nations in Geneva, especially with reference to United Kingdom data. In 1940–1941 he was on the staff of the Local and State Government Section (Princeton Surveys) of the School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, and also taught statistics at New York University. In 1941–1942 he was economist with the Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company, Philadelphia, engaged in research on interest rates on long-term securities. In 1942–1944 he did statistical work in the Combined Shipping Adjustment Board at Washington. He is the author of two books, Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series, Haarlem, 1937, and Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building, Haarlem, 1939, and of numerous articles in economic and statistical journals. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society.

  • "Review of The Variate Difference Method, by Gerhard Tintner," The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 26, May 1944, pp. 105–107.
  • "Review of Economic Fluctuations in the United States, by Edwin Frickey," The American Economic Review, Vol. 34, June 1944, pp. 377–381.
  • "Review of Mathematical Statistics, by S.S. Wilks," The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 52, September 1944, pp. 277–279.
    "Statistical Estimation of Simultaneous Economic Relations," presented at Cleveland, September 13, 1944, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 13, January 1945, pp. 80–81).
  • "New Developments in the Statistical Measurement of Economic. Relations," presented at Chicago, April 4, 1945, before the Statistical Techniques Group of the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association.
  • "The Statistical Estimation of Simultaneous Equations," presented at Ames, Iowa, May 9, 1945, at the Statistical Laboratory of Iowa State College.
  • "Full-Employment Policies," presented at Ames, Iowa, May 10, 1945, before the Social Science Seminar of Iowa State College.
  • "The Prevention of Inflation in Durable-Consumers'-Goods Markets during Reconversion," presented at Ames, Iowa, May 11, 1945, before the Department of Economics of Iowa State College.
  • "Memorandum on Relocation of Industry," prepared for the Conference on Atomic Energy, the University of Chicago, September 1945 (mimeographed).
  • "Theory of Inventories under Perfect Competition," presented at Chicago, October 30, 1945, before the Political Economy Club of the University of Chicago.
  • (With Roy Bergh Leipnik) "Iterative Computation Methods in Estimating Simultaneous Relations," presented at Cleveland, January 25, 1946, before the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 14, April 1946, pp. 170–172, reprinted in Cowles Commission Papers, New Series, No.17).
  • "Recent Developments in the Measurement of Simultaneous Economic Relations," presented at Washington, D.C., April 13, 1946, before the Washington Chapters of the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
  • "Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models," presented at Ithaca, New York, August 23, 1946, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

OSCAR LANGE (LL.D., Cracow, 1938) was a research associate of the Commission from September, 1939, until the autumn of 1945, when he was appointed Ambassador of Poland to the United States. He was on leave of absence as visiting professor at Columbia University during the academic year 1943–1944.
     Lange has been lecturer in economics and statistics at the University of Cracow since 1931; lecturer in economics at the Polish Free University, Warsaw, since 1939; lecturer in economics at the University of Michigan, 1936, at the University of California, 1937–1938, and at Stanford University, 1938–1939; associate professor of economics, 1939–1943 and professor of economics since 1943, at the University of Chicago. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the author of several books, including The Statistical Study of Economic Fluctuations (in Polish), 1931, and (with Fred M. Taylor) On the Economic Theory of Socialism, 1938, and numerous articles in economic journals.

  • (As Editor, with Francis McIntyre and Theodore O. Yntema) Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, In Memory of Henry Schultz, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1942, 292 pp.
  • "Say's Law: A Restatement and Criticism," in ibid., pp. 49–68.
  • "Theoretical Derivation of Elasticities of Demand and Supply: The Direct Method," Econometrica, Vol. 10, July–October 1942, pp. 193–214.
  • "The Foundations of Welfare Economics," Econometrica, Vol. 10, July–October 1942, pp. 215–228.
  • "Special Interests Hammer at Price Control: War Savings, Rationing, Can Close 'Inflationary Gap’," New Leader, Vol. 25, No.24, June 13, 1942, p.4.
  • "Taxation, Borrowing, Not Wage Freezing, Can Close Inflation Gap," New Leader, Vol. 25, No.25, June 20, 1942, p. 4.
  • "A Note on Innovations," The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 25, February 1943, pp. 19–25.
  • "Review of Paul M. Sweezey, The Theory of Capitalist Development: Principles of Marxian Economy," The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 40, July 8, 1943, pp. 378–384.
  • "The Theory of the Multiplier," Econometrica, Vol. 11, July–October 1943, pp. 227–245.
  • The Working Principles of the Soviet Economy, Pamphlet Series No. 1 of the Russian Economic Institute, New York, 1943, 30 pp. (reprinted from U.S.S.R. Economy and the War, New York, 1943).
  • "Los Principios de la Economia Sovietica," El Trimestre Economico, Mexico, Vol. 11, July–September 1944.
  • (With Abba P. Lerner) The American Way of Business — The Role of Government in a System of Free Enterprise (Problems in American Life, Unit No. 20), Washington, National Education Association, 1944, 93 pp.
  • "Marxian Economics in the Soviet Union," American Economic Review, Vol. 35, March 1945, pp. 127–133.
  • "Economic Controls after the War," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 60, March 1945, pp. 1–13.
  • "The Inter-Relations of Shifts in Demand" (reply to notes by D.H. Robertson and J.R. Hicks), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 12, 1944–45, pp. 75–78.
    "Planning in the Post-War World," presented at the University of Chicago, July 1, 1942, before Second Annual Conference for Teachers of the Social Sciences in Secondary Schools and Junior Colleges.
  • "Total War and Economic Trends," presented at Chicago, August 25, 1942, as a public lecture of the Social Science Division of the University of Chicago.
  • "Economic Nationalism versus World Organization," presented at New York, October 7, 1942, in conference at the Rand School of Social Sciences.
  • "Economic Planning, the Market, and Freedom," presented at New York, October 27, 1942, in conference at Institute of World Economics.
  • "Price Flexibility and Employment," presented at Cambridge, Massachusetts, March 11, 1943, before graduate students of the Department of Economics, Harvard University.
  • "The Contribution of Social Insurance and Full Employment to Freedom from Want," presented at New York, May 8, 1943, before the League for Industrial Democracy.
  • "The Soviet Union in the Postwar World," presented at Chicago, August 5, 1944, before the Society for Social Research.
  • "Monopoly and Employment," presented at the University of Toronto, November 20, 1944.

DICKSON H. LEAVENS (B.A., Yale, 1909; M.A., 1915) has been a research associate since September, 1936, and has concurrently served as managing editor of Econometrica. He is a lecturer in economics at the University of Chicago.
     Leavens has taught mathematics and other subjects at the College of Yale in China, Changsha, 1909–1928 and was treasurer, 1916–1928. From 1929 to 1933 he was on the research staff of the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. In 1934 he served in China and India as a special agent of the United States Treasury Department to investigate the silver situation. He has specialized in the study of the monetary use of silver and has published a number of articles on various phases of this subject, and a book, Silver Money, Cowles Commission Monograph No.4, 1939.

  • "Silver [Review of 1941]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 148, February 1942, pp. 55–56.
  • (With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The Mineral Industry during 1941, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1942, pp. 201–271.
  • "Silver [Review of 1943]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 144, February 1943, pp. 79–80.
  • Far Eastern Postwar Monetary Standards, New York, The Monetary Standards Inquiry, 1943, 24 pp.
  • "Diversification of Investments," Trusts and Estates, Vol. 81, May 1945, pp. 469–473.
  • "Diversification of Planning," Trusts and Estates, Vol. 81, September 1945, pp. 206–209.
  • "Silver [Review of 1945]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 147, No.2, February 1946, pp. 74–76.
  • "Bullion Prices and the Gold-Silver Ratio, 1929–45," Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 28, August 1946, pp. 100–164.

ROY BERGH LEIPNIK (B.A., Chicago, 1945, M.S., 1946) was full-time research assistant to Koopmans from February 1945 to July 1946. His work (not yet published) on mathematical statistics is indicated in this report, Section I.2, by the titles of items 5 and 9 and of Article II of Monograph No. 10.

H. GREGG LEWIS (A.B., Chicago, 1936, Ph.D., 1947) became a research associate in September, 1939. From 1943 to 1945 he was on leave of absence as executive secretary and later assistant wage stabilization director of the Chicago Regional Office of the War Labor Board. In 1945 he served in the army, resuming his teaching at the University of Chicago in the autumn quarter and becoming a research consultant of the Commission.
     Lewis was a university fellow in Economics at the University of Chicago, 1937–1938; fellow of the Brookings Institution, 1938–1939; instructor in economics, University of Chicago, 1939–1946, assistant professor, 1946–. He is the author of a number of papers on statistics and on the demand for steel.

  • (With L.M. Court) "Production Cost Indices," The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 10, Winter, 1942–43, pp. 28–42.
  • "Studies in the Elasticity of the Demand for Steel," thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of philosophy at the University of Chicago, 1947.

JACOB MARSCHAK (Ph.D., Heidelberg, 1922; M.A., Oxford, 1935) became f research director in January, 1943. He is professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
     Marschak was born in Kiev, Russia, and studied at the Institute of Technology at Kiev, 1915–1918, and at the Universities of Berlin and Heidelberg, 1919–22. He was assistant professor at the University of Heidelherg, 1930–1933; Chichele lecturer in economics at All Souls College, Oxford, 1933–1935; reader in statistics and director of the Institute of Statistics, University of Oxford, 1935–1939; professor of economics, Graduate Faculty of Social and Political Science, New York, 1939–1942. He is a fellow and member of the Council of the Econometric Society and served as its vice-president in 1944 and 1945 and as its president in 1946; he is a member of the advisory editorial board of Econometrica. He is the author of three books, Die Lohndiskussion, 1930; Die Elastizit├Ąt der Nachfrage, 1931; and (with W. Lederer) Kapitalbildung, 1936; and of numerous articles in economic journals. He is chairman of the executive committee of the Conference on Research on Income and Wealth, organized under the National Bureau of Economic Research; collaborating editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association; and member of the Committee on Social Aspects of Atomic Energy, Social Science Research Council.

  • "Demand Elasticities Reviewed," Econometrica, Vol. 11, January 1943, pp. 25–34.
  • "Money Illusion and Demand Analysis," The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 25, February 1943, pp. 40–48.
  • "Income Inequality and Demand Studies: A Note," Econometrica, Vol. 11, April 1943, pp. 163–166.
  • Editor (with Arthur Feiler) and author of Introduction (32 pp.) to Management in Russian Industry and Agriculture, by Gregory Bienstock, Solomon M. Schwartz, and Aaron Yugow, New York, Oxford University Press, 1944, 198 pp.
  • "The Economics of Atomic Power," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists of Chicago, Vol. 1, No.5, February 15, 1946.
  • "Dispersal of Cities and Industries" (with L.R. Klein and E. Teller), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 1, No.9, April 15, 1946, pp. 12–15 and 20.
  • "Economic Aspects of Atomic Power," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 2, Nos. 5–6, September 1946, pp. 8–9 (paper presented at the Estes Park Conference on Atomic Energy, Estes Park, Colorado, June 25, 1946.)
  • Preface to Horst Mendershausen, Changes in Income Distribution during the Great Depression (Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 7), New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946, pp. xiii–xviii.
  • "Inflation," presented at Chicago, March 10, 1943, before the Seminar on the Changing Economy.
  • "Influence of Prices and Incomes on the Demand for Meat," presented at Chicago, March 24, 1943, before the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association.
  • "Simultaneous Analysis of Demand and Supply," presented at Ames, May 5, 1943, before the Economics Seminar, Iowa State College.
  • "Studies on the Management of Russian Industry and Agriculture," presented at Ames, May, 1943, before the Social Science Seminar, Iowa State College.
  • "Simultaneous Random Equations in Statistical Economics," presented at Chicago, May 18, 1944, before the Mathematical Club of the University of Chicago.
  • "Random Production Functions," presented at Cleveland, September 13, 1944, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 13, January 1945, pp. 81–82).
  • "Price Flexibility and Income Maintenance," presented at New York, May 5, 1944, before the annual meeting of the Conference on Price Research organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • "Current Tasks of the Cowles Commission," presented at Chicago, July 11, 1.945, before the Committee on Instruction and Research of the Board of Trustees of the University of Chicago.
  • "Full Employment in the Postwar World" (with William W. Cooper and Philip M. Hauser), presented at Chicago, July 25, 1945, before the Conference of Teachers of the Social Sciences in Secondary Schools and Junior Colleges held at the University of Chicago.
  • "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior," presented at Chicago, August 3, 1945, before the Political Economy Club of the University of Chicago.
  • "The Prospects of Empirical Economics," presented at Washington, DC, November 14, 1945, before the Seminar organized by the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board.
  • "Regressions and Structural Equations in Economics," presented at Princeton, New Jersey, November 5, 1945, before the Graduate Seminar of the Department of Economics, Princeton University.
  • "Forecasts: Useful, Useless, and Faulty," presented at the Research Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, on November 14, 1946.
  • "Atomic Energy and the Theory of Long-Run Effects of Inventions," presented at the Seminar of the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. on December 26, 1946.

KENNETH MAY (A.B., California, 1936; M.A., 1937; Ph.D., 1946) became a research consultant of the Commission in September, 1946.
     May was a Traveling Fellow of the Institute of Current World Affairs, 1937–1938, studying at the University of London (London School of Economics and University College) and University of Paris. He was a Teaching Fellow in Mathematics at the University of California, 1936–1937 and 1939–1940. He served in the 87th Mountain Infantry (10th Mountain Division) in the Aleutians (1943) and in Italy (1945). He was commissioned Second Lieutenant. He was instructor at Army University Study Center, Florence, Italy (1945). He is now assistant professor of mathematics at Carleton College.

  • "The Aggregation Problem for a One-Industry Model," Econometrica, Vol. 14, October 1946, pp. 285–298 (to be included in Cowles Commission Papers, New Series, No. 19).
  • "Technological Change as a Functional Variation," presented at Ames, Iowa, November 29, 1946, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract No. 74 in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 53, January 1947, p. 64).
  • "The Aggregate Effect of Technological Changes in a Two-Industry Model," presented by title at Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, December 29, 1946, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract No.75 in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 53, January, 1947, p. 64).

JACOB L. MOSAK (A.B., Chicago, 1935, Ph.D., 1941) became a research associate in September 1939. In 1941 he went on leave of absence, and held various positions in the Research Division of the Office of Price Administration, resigning from the Commission staff at the end of 1945.
     Mosak was research assistant to Professor Henry Schultz at the University of Chicago, 1935–1938; Social Science Research Council Fellow, 1938–1939; instructor in economics, the University of Chicago, 1939–1944. He has published several articles in economic and statistical journals.

  • "On the Interpretation of the Fundamental Equation of Value Theory," in Lange, McIntyre, and Yntema, Editors, Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, In Memory of Henry Schultz, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1942, pp. 69–74.
  • (With W. A. Salant) "Income, Money and Prices in Wartime," American Economic Review, Vol. 34, December 1944, pp. 828–889.
  • "Forecasting Postwar Demand, III," Econometrica, Vol. 13, January 1945, pp. 25–58.
  • "Factors Affecting Adequacy of Demand for Potential Postwar Output," presented at Washington, November, 1945, before Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

GEORGE PERAZICH (B.S. in electrical engineering, California, 1933) joined the staff in March 1947, as a research associate on the study of the economics of atomic energy.
     Perazich was with the National Research Project, Philadelphia, as engineer in charge of studies in technology and industrial techniques, 1935–1940. For two years he was assistant director and consulting engineer, Research Advisory Service, Buffalo, New York. From 1944 to 1947 he served overseas with the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration, as director of industrial rehabilitation and deputy chief of supply. He is the senior author of Industrial Research and Changing Technology, Industrial Instruments and Changing Technology, and Mechanization in the Cement Industry, and author of several technical articles and special surveys.

DON PATINKIN (B.A., Chicago, 1943, A.M., 1945) joined the staff as a research assistant in May, 1946. He has been appointed research associate in the Cowles Commission and assistant professor of economics in the University of Chicago from July 1, 1947.
     Patinkin held the Harper Fellowship in the University of Chicago in 1945–46, and holds a predoctoral fellowship of the Social Science Research Council in 1946–47.

  • "Mercantilism and the Readmission of the Jews to England," Jewish Social Studies, Vol. 8, July 1946, pp. 167–168.

HERMAN RUBIN (B.S., Chicago, 1944; M.S., 1945) joined the staff as a research assistant in July, 1944; he was absent in army service from March to December, 1945, returning to the staff in January, 1946. He became a research associate in November, 1946.

  • "Asymptotic Distribution of Moments from a System of Linear Stochastic Difference Equations," presented at Ithaca, New York, August 22, 1946, before the American Mathematical Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract No. 332 in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 52, September 1946, pp. 827–828; abstract also in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 17, December 1946, p. 500).
  • (With Theodore W. Anderson, Jr.) "Estimation of Structural Coefficients through Linear Transformation of Regression Coefficients," presented at Ithaca, New York, August 23, 1946, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 17, December 1946, pp. 500–504.)
  • (With T.W. Anderson and M.A. Girshick) "Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Stochastic Difference Equation in a Complete System," presented at Washington, April 12, 1946, before joint regional meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association.

SAM H. SCHURR (B.A., Rutgers, 193'8; M.A., 1939) joined the staff in the autumn of 1946 as codirector (with the rank of assistant professor) of the study of the economics of atomic energy.
     Schurr was on the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1939–1948 ; economist, Office of Strategic Services, 1943–1945; economic adviser to U.S. Representative, Allied Commission on Reparations, 1945–1946; and is now on leave from Division of German and Austrian Economic Affairs, U.S. Department of State. He is the author (with Harold Barger) of The Mining Industries, 18991939: A Study of Output, Equipment and Productivity, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1944.

HERBERT A. SIMON (A.B., Chicago, 1936; Ph.D., 1943) became a research consultant of the Commission in April, 1947.
     Simon was a research assistant at the University of Chicago, 1937–1938; staff member of the International City Managers' Association, and Assistant Editor of the Municipal Year Book, 1938–1939; director of administrative measurement studies at the Bureau of Public Administration, University of California, 1939–1942. Since 1942 he has been a member of the faculty of Illinois Institute of Technology where he is now professor of political science and chairman of the Department of Political and Social Science.
     He is the author of Fiscal Aspects of Metropolitan Consolidation, 1943; and of Administrative Behavior, in press; and the coauthor of Measuring Municipal Activities, 1938; Determining Work Loads for Professional Staff in a Public Welfare Agency, 1941; Fire Risks and Fire Losses, 1948; and Technique of Municipal Administration, 1944. He has published a number of articles in the fields of municipal government, public administration, and economics.

JOHN H. SMITH (B.A., Iowa State Teachers College, 1935; M.B.A., Chicago, 1939, Ph.D., 1941) was a research associate from September, 1940, to June, 1942, resigning to accept a position as statistical consultant in the office of the chief statistician, Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Department of Labor.
     Smith was a research and teaching assistant in the School of Business, the University of Chicago, 1936–1941, and instructor in statistics, 1941–1942. He is the author of two books, Tests of Significance and How to Use Them, 1939, and Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, 1941.

  • "Weighted Regressions in the Analysis of Economic Series," in Lange, McIntyre, and Yntema, Editors, Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, In Memory of Henry Schultz, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1942, pp. 151–164.

SAMI TEKINER, fellow of the Department of Economics, was full-time research assistant from July, 1944 to June, 1945. He participated in the studies on models for manufacturing industries and firms in the U.S.A.

THEODORE O. YNTEMA (A.B., Hope, 1921; A.M., Illinois, 1922; C.P.A., Illinois, 1924; Ph.D., Chicago, 1929) became research director in September, 1939, and resigned in November, 1942, to become research director of the Committee for Economic Development, continuing on leave of absence as a research associate until the end of 1945.
     Yntema has served on the faculty of the University of Chicago from 1923, becoming professor of statistics in the School of Business in 1930 and professor of business and economic policy in 1945. He was economic consultant to the National Recovery Administration, 1934–1935; head of economics and statistics in the division of industrial materials of the Defense Commission, 1940; consultant to the War Shipping Administration, 1942; consulting economist and statistician for the United States Steel Corporation and other companies at various times; and a director of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1940–. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Statistical Association. He is the author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade, and of a number of articles in economic journals; he directed most of the research leading to Vol. 1 of TNEC Studies, published by the United States Steel Corporation. He has also directed the research program of the Committee for Economic Development in which ten research reports (books) on current economic problems and three supplementary papers have been published and in which approximately fifteen additional reports are in process.

  • (As Editor, with Oscar Lange and Francis McIntyre) Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, In Memory of Henry Schultz, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1942, 292 pp.
  • "Henry Schultz: His Contributions to Economics and Statistics," in ibid., pp. 11–17.
  • "Price Controls," in Chester W. Wright, Editor, Economic Problems of War and Its Aftermath, Chicago, the University of Chicago Press, 1942, pp. 112–125.
  • "Full Employment in a Private Enterprise System," American Economic Review, Supplement, March 1944, pp. 107–117.
  • (With others) Jobs and Markets, Committee for Economic Development Research Study, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1946, 143 pp.