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April 5, 2007
My mother-in-law said that, too. But after a dozen or so counseling sessions, everything turned out OK. Besides, no one complains that it's too soon to speculate whether Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Rudy Giuliani or John McCain might prevail in the next presidential election, and that won't be held until November 2008. With that in mind, we proceed in lifting up our top contenders for the '07 vote without fear of retribution, and only mildly dreading the "I-told-you-so'' chastising that will inevitably come from gloating fans and overbearing in-laws. Before clicking on that "send'' button consider more than just 2006 statistics and note the historical trends of Heisman balloting. Electrifying Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, last year's Heisman runner-up to Ohio State's Troy Smith, is the early favorite to hoist the hardware in December. However, he must face traditionally strong defensive teams on the road at Alabama, Tennessee and LSU. He must overcome a measure of history, too. Only three players � Army's Glenn Davis in 1946, Southern California's O.J. Simpson in 1968 and Georgia's Herschel Walker in 1982 � won the Heisman Trophy after finishing as the runner-up the preceding year. Also, don't minimize the candidacies of West Virginia running back Steve Slaton and Southern California quarterback John David Booty. Conventional wisdom says that a team with two Heisman candidates really has none, and West Virginia has two in Slaton and quarterback Pat White. But history also shows that in that situation the running back emerges as the contender and sometimes the winner. That was the case in 2005 when USC running back Reggie Bush won and Trojans quarterback Matt Leinart was third. That was also the case in 1983 when Nebraska I-back Mike Rozier received the Trophy and Huskers quarterback Turner Gill finished fourth. Southern Cal doesn't appear to have a running back candidate (though the Trojans have several who could emerge), so that's not an issue for Booty. He will be a contender simply because he's the quarterback of a team that could win the national championship. However, he has other historical factors going for him, too. USC has produced seven Heisman winners (tying Notre Dame for the most) and the Trojans' two previous quarterbacks � Leinart and Carson Palmer � won the Heisman. Additionally, there is a precedent for a recipient named John David. Texas A&M;'s John David Crow won in 1957.
Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.
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