HISTORY OF THE ENTRY DRAFT
Prior to 1995, the order of selection in the Entry Draft
was determined by ranking the teams in order of points at
the end of the season from worst to first, with the worst
team getting the 1st overall pick. In 1993, the San Jose
Sharks accused the Ottawa Senators of intentionally throwing
games in order to get the #1 overall pick to take Alexandre
Daigle. (Years later, the Senators later admitted they did
in fact do this.) To guard against this from happening again,
the NHL instituted a lottery method to decide the first overall
pick beginning in 1995. This method has been used since,
with the exception of the 2005 Entry Draft.
HOW THE DRAFT ORDER IS SELECTED
From NHL.com:
The order of selection among the Member Clubs in each season
shall be determined in the following manner: (amended in
2007 to provide for points iv and v below)
A composite of all Member Clubs shall be prepared by placing:
-
First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the next
preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each
of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season
starting with the Club having the lowest points total and
followed by the Club having the next lowest points total,
and so forth.
-
The Clubs which participated in the next preceding playoffs
(but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions
and did not make the Conference Finals) in order of points
earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the next
preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest
total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest
total points, and so forth.
-
The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions
during the next preceding season (but had not made the
Conference Finals ) in the order of points earned by each
of them in the regular schedule of the next preceding season
starting with the Club having the lowest total points and
followed by the Club having the next lowest total points,
and so forth.
-
The Clubs who lose in the Conference Finals in the order
of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule
of the next preceding season starting with the Club having
the lowest total points and followed by the Club having
the next lowest total points.
-
The Club which loses in the Finals shall select next
to last. vi) The Stanley Cup winner shall select last,
thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.
In the event of a tie for any position, such tie shall be
resolved by application of the rules governing the determination
of final League standings. The resulting list shall constitute
the order of selection.
Tie-Breaking Procedures:
At the conclusion of the regular season, the standing of the teams in
each Conference shall be determined in accordance with the following
priorities in the order listed:
-
First place in each of the three (3) divisions seeded
1, 2, and 3.
-
The higher number of points earned by the Club.
-
The greater number of games won by the Club.
-
The higher number of points earned in games against
each other among two (2) or more Clubs having equal standing
under priority (b) and (c) **
-
The greater differential
between goals scored for and against by Clubs having equal
standing under priority (d).
So ... positions 15-30 are set after the playoffs, while
1-14 are set by a weighted lottery.
THE DRAFT LOTTERY - HOW IT WORKS
The lottery (the NHL refers to it as the Draft Drawing)
involves the picks from clubs that don't make the current
season's Stanley Cup Playoffs, or clubs that acquired the
first-round picks of those non-playoff clubs. The lottery
result does not affect the draft order for
the remainder of the first round and rounds two through seven.
The club selected in the lottery may not move up more than
four positions in the draft order. Thus the only clubs
with the opportunity to receive the 1st overall selection
are the five clubs with the lowest regular-season point totals
(or clubs that acquired those clubs' first-round drafting
positions). No club can move down more than one position
as a result of the lottery. Under the weighted lottery system,
the club with the fewest regular-season points will have
the greatest chance (25%) of winning the lottery and will
pick no lower than second at the Entry Draft.
Fourteen balls, numbered 1-14, are
placed in a lottery machine and four are drawn, forming
a series of numbers. A probability
chart, created by Bortz & Company, divides the possible combinations
among the 14 participating clubs. The four-digit series that
results from the balls drawn are be compared to the probability
chart to determine the team to which that combination has
been assigned.
The percentage chance of being selected in the lottery is
as follows, based on team finish:
30th........... 25.0% (250 combinations)
29th........... 18.8% (188 combinations)
28th........... 14.2% (142 combinations)
27th........... 10.7% (107 combinations)
26th.............8.1% (81 combinations)
25th.............6.2% (62 combinations)
24th.............4.7% (47 combinations)
23rd.............3.6% (36 combinations)
22nd............ 2.7% (27 combinations)
21st.............2.1% (21 combinations)
20th.............1.5% (15 combinations)
19th.............1.1% (11 combinations)
18th.............0.8% (8 combinations)
17th.............0.5% (5 combinations)
There are 1,001 numerical combinations possible, with one
combination eliminated to make the odds fair; if the eliminated
combination is drawn (a 0.1% probability), the drawing is
immediately re-done.
After the club selected moves up, the balance of the first
14 draft selections are adjusted by one, with the appropriate
clubs moving down one slot to accommodate the winner, if
necessary.
Here's a chart showing where the chances of each team picking
in a given spot:
|
|
Chance of Draft Position after the lottery |
Finish in Points |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
30 |
48.20% |
51.80% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29 |
18.80% |
42.00% |
39.20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
14.20% |
|
56.10% |
29.70% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27 |
10.70% |
|
|
66.70% |
22.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26 |
8.10% |
|
|
|
74.70% |
17.20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
|
6.20% |
|
|
|
80.70% |
13.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24 |
|
|
4.70% |
|
|
|
85.40% |
9.90% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
23 |
|
|
|
3.60% |
|
|
|
89.00% |
7.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
|
2.70% |
|
|
|
91.80% |
5.50% |
|
|
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
2.10% |
|
|
|
94.00% |
3.90% |
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.50% |
|
|
|
96.10% |
2.40% |
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.10% |
|
|
|
97.60% |
1.30% |
|
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.80% |
|
|
|
98.70% |
0.50% |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.50% |
|
|
|
99.50% |
|
Thus the last-place team has a 48.2%
chance of picking 1st and a 51.8% chance of picking 2nd;
the "best" non-qualifying
team has a 0.5% chance of picking 10th and a 99.5% chance
of picking 14th.
"WINNERS" OF THE
PREVIOUS DRAFT LOTTERIES
1995 - Los Angeles (was 7th, moved to 3rd; Ottawa retained
1st overall pick)
1996 - Ottawa (retained 1st overall pick)
1997 - Boston (retained 1st overall pick)
1998 - Tampa Bay (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
1999 - Chicago (was 8th, moved to 4th; Tampa Bay retained 1st overall
pick)
2000 - NY Islanders (was 5th, moved to 1st)
2001 - Atlanta (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2002 - Florida (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2003 - Florida (was 4th, moved to 1st
2004 - Washington (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2005 - Pittsburgh (all 30 teams had a chance at #1)
2006 - St. Louis (retained 1st overall pick)
2007 - Chicago (was 5th, moved to 1st)
ENTRY DRAFT FAQ
Q: How long is the Entry Draft?
A: Under Article 8.3(a) of the new CBA, the Entry Draft is 7 rounds.
Q: So the draft order reverses at the end of each
round, right?
A: No. That was a provision for only the 2005 Entry Draft due to the
fact that there was no 2004 season.
Q: So how do compensatory picks fit in?
A: Under Article 8.3(b) of the new CBA:
In the event a Club loses its draft rights to an Unsigned
Draft Choice drafted in the first round of the Entry Draft
(except as a result of failing to tender a required Bona
Fide Offer (as defined below)), who is again eligible for
the Entry Draft or becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent,
a Compensatory Draft Selection shall automatically be granted
to that Club, which Compensatory Draft Selection shall
be the same numerical choice in the second round in the
Entry Draft immediately following the date the Club loses
such rights. By way of example, if a Club cannot sign the
third pick in the first round, it will receive the third
pick in the second round as compensation.
There are no longer compensatory picks for losing UFA's
under the new CBA, nor are there compensatory picks for losing
unsigned draft picks in rounds other than the 1st round.
Q: Which picks have been traded in this year's and
future Entry Drafts?
A: Walzy has put together
this
list of traded draft picks.
Q: How long do teams have to sign players once drafted?
A: The short version (the actual text of the details runs about 4 pages
the way I have it formatted, and I'm not posting all of that)
-- If the player is in the CHL (Canadian Major Juniors),
the team generally has until the second June 1 following
the draft when the player was selected unless the player
leaves the CHL early; in that case, the team has until the
fourth June 1 after the draft the player was selected. Details
in Article 8.6(b)
-- If the player is in college, the team has until August 15 after the
player's class graduates (example: a player enters college in Fall 2005,
his class is considered to graduate in Spring 2009). Generally about
four (4) years. Details in Article 8.6(c)
-- If the player is in Europe, generally two (2) years. Details in Article
8.6(a).
In any event, teams will generally lose all rights to an
unsigned draft pick after the player reaches the age of 22.
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