Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Genevieve
26 August - 1 September 2002
Lixion A. Avila
National Hurricane Center 12 October 2002
Tropical Storm Genevieve formed south of Baja California and
soon moved over cool waters.
a. Synoptic History
A tropical wave crossed Dakar, Senegal on 13 August. The wave was
accompanied by a large area of thunderstorms with a well-defined
low-level cyclonic wind-shift and a column of high moisture that
extended from the surface to near 400 mb. As the wave moved
westward, it lost most of its associated convection, and it was not
until the system was south of Hispaniola on the 19th
that the thunderstorm activity partially regenerated. Thereafter,
the wave continued westward with a gradual increase in organization
and crossed Central America where developed a distinct mid-level
circulation. A tropical depression formed at 0000 UTC 26 August
about 500 n mi south of the southern tip of Baja California and
became a tropical storm 24 hours later. Genevieve was near
hurricane strength with maximum winds of 60 knots and a minimum
pressure of 989 mb at 0000 UTC 28 August when it turned to the
northwest toward cooler waters and convection began to weaken. It
was dissipating about 960 n mi west-northwest of the southern tip
of Baja California at 0600 UTC 1 September. A swirl of low clouds
associated with Genevieve's remnants persisted for a couple of
days.
The "best track" chart of Genevieve's path is given in
Figure 1
with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2
and Figure 3,
respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed
in Table 1.
a. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Genevieve (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite
Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA). Infrared satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB indicated
that Genevieve was a hurricane by 1200 UTC 28 August. However,
visible satellite images a couple of hours later showed a disrupted
cloud pattern indicating that the T-numbers were overestimated and
Genevieve was not a hurricane.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with
Genevieve.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Average official track errors (with the number of cases in
parentheses) for Genevieve were 36 (12), 63 (10), 74 (8), 85 (6),
and 142 (2) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts,
respectively. With the exception of the 12 and 24 hour periods,
these errors are much lower than the average official track errors
for the 10-yr period 1992-2001 of 36, 67, 97, 125, and 182 n mi,
respectively). However, several of the numerical track guidance
produced even lower errors than the official forecast at all times
as indicated in Table 2.
Average official intensity errors were 7, 15, 17, 22, and 30 kt
for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. For
comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr
period 1992-2001 are 7, 12, 16, 18, and 21 kt, respectively.
Table 1: Best track for Genevieve, 26 August- 1 September,
2002.
Date/Time (UTC) | Position | Pressure (mb) | Wind Speed (kt) | Stage |
Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) |
26 / 0000 | 14.7 | 110.4 | 1007 | 30 | tropical depression |
26 / 0600 | 14.5 | 111.2 | 1008 | 30 | " |
26 / 1200 | 14.4 | 112.0 | 1007 | 30 | " |
26 / 1800 | 14.2 | 112.7 | 1006 | 30 | " |
27 / 0000 | 14.0 | 113.2 | 1005 | 35 | tropical storm |
27 / 0600 | 13.9 | 113.7 | 1002 | 40 | " |
27 / 1200 | 13.9 | 114.3 | 994 | 50 | " |
27 / 1800 | 14.1 | 114.9 | 990 | 60 | " |
28 / 0000 | 14.6 | 115.5 | 989 | 60 | " |
28 / 0600 | 15.2 | 116.1 | 989 | 60 | " |
28 / 1200 | 15.9 | 116.9 | 989 | 60 | " |
28 / 1800 | 16.4 | 117.9 | 989 | 60 | " |
29 / 0000 | 16.9 | 118.9 | 992 | 60 | " |
29 / 0600 | 17.5 | 119.6 | 994 | 55 | " |
29 / 1200 | 18.0 | 120.1 | 1002 | 45 | " |
29 / 1800 | 18.5 | 120.8 | 1002 | 40 | " |
30 / 0000 | 19.1 | 121.5 | 1005 | 35 | " |
30 / 0600 | 19.6 | 122.1 | 1005 | 35 | " |
30 / 1200 | 20.2 | 122.7 | 1007 | 30 | tropical depression |
30 / 1800 | 20.8 | 123.4 | 1007 | 30 | " |
31 / 0000 | 21.4 | 124.1 | 1009 | 25 | " |
31 / 0600 | 22.3 | 124.9 | 1009 | 25 | " |
31 / 1200 | 23.3 | 125.1 | 1009 | 25 | " |
31 / 1800 | 24.1 | 125.6 | 1008 | 25 | " |
01 / 0000 | 24.5 | 126.5 | 1009 | 20 | " |
01 / 0600 | 24.9 | 127.0 | 1009 | 20 | dissipating |
28 / 0000 | 14.6 | 115.5 | 989 | 60 | minimum pressure |
Table 2: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample)
for Genevieve, 26 August 1 September, 2002. Forecast errors for
tropical storm and hurricane stages (n mi) are followed by the
number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC
official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
Forecast Technique | Period (hours) |
12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 |
CLP5 | 36 (12) | 71 (10) | 101 ( 8) | 146 ( 6) | 182 ( 2) |
GFDI | 29 (12) | 66 (10) | 112 ( 8) | 147 ( 6) | 190 ( 2) |
GFDL | 23 (11) | 47 (10) | 83 ( 8) | 116 ( 6) | 131 ( 2) |
LBAR | 33 (12) | 57 (10) | 73 ( 8) | 75 ( 6) | 74 ( 2) |
AVNI | 40 (12) | 73 (10) | 96 ( 8) | 115 ( 6) | 242 ( 2) |
AVNO | 55 (12) | 83 (10) | 87 ( 8) | 87 ( 6) | 184 ( 2) |
AEMI | 34 ( 9) | 64 ( 7) | 89 ( 6) | 130 ( 4) | 216 ( 1) |
BAMD | 34 (12) | 54 (10) | 70 ( 8) | 56 ( 6) | 72 ( 2) |
BAMM | 32 (12) | 55 (10) | 68 ( 8) | 71 ( 6) | 88 ( 2) |
BAMS | 36 (12) | 72 (10) | 97 ( 8) | 134 ( 6) | 188 ( 2) |
NGPI | 27 (12) | 46 (10) | 47 ( 8) | 65 ( 6) | 148 ( 2) |
NGPS | 35 (10) | 56 ( 8) | 54 ( 7) | 58 ( 6) | 90 ( 2) |
UKMI | 34 (11) | 64 ( 9) | 87 ( 8) | 78 ( 6) | 101 ( 2) |
UKM | 36 ( 6) | 68 ( 5) | 84 ( 4) | 82 ( 3) | 18 ( 1) |
GUNS | 25 (11) | 54 ( 9) | 72 ( 8) | 73 ( 6) | 88 ( 2) |
GUNA | 24 (11) | 51 ( 9) | 69 ( 8) | 75 ( 6) | 105 ( 2) |
OFCL | 36 (12) | 63 (10) | 74 ( 8) | 85 ( 6) | 142 ( 2) |
NHC Official (1992-2001 mean) | 36 (2203) | 67 (1947) | 97 (1700) | 125 (1472) | 182 (1091) |
*Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance. |
Figure 1:
Best track positions for Tropical Storm Genevieve, 26 August- 1 September,
2002.
Figure 2:
Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Genevieve, 26
August- 1 September, 2002.
Figure 3:
Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Genevieve, 26 August-1
September, 2002.
|