Fighting Back

THERE'S ONLY ONE response to the re-emergence of the Conservatives as contenders for government: we have to fight back.

The question is how. Sections of the media seem bewitched with David Cameron. Cameron's strategy is plain for all to see: take every Tory negative, and try to neutralise it. That's why you see him talking up environmentalism, supporting the NHS, claiming to be redistributive, appearing at the Local Government Association, at conferences organised by Oxfam, and even, it is rumoured, the TUC!

What the Tory strategists call `Project Cameron' is seen as a winner, with modest but sustained poll leads to back it up.  

So will it work? Let's look at three areas: elections, polls, and policy. In Bromley, Cameron's Tories had the opportunity to present the new face of Conservatism to the electorate in their own heartlands. There was an 11 per cent swing away from the Tories. If 300 people in Bromley had switched from Tory to Lib Dem, the Tories would have lost one of the safest seats, and Cameron's bandwagon would have crashed. Bromley was a real test of Cameron's appeal amongst Tory voters, and he failed it.

Second - the polls. Cameron's Conservatives have broken through Labour's decade-long lead in the opinion polls. They've been ahead by between 5 and 10 points for a few months. But let's not forget that opposition parties usually lead in the polls over government parties mid-term. Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot were ahead of Margaret Thatcher. Michael Howard was ahead of Tony Blair. But those poll leads were reversed at the general elections. So Cameron's poll leads do not indicate that the country is crying out for a Tory government. June's MORI polls puts Labour ahead of the Conservatives by 4 points.

Third - policy. Again, the strategy is clear: kick all the hard decisions into the long-grass by appointing `commissions' to deliberate until the election. By `travelling light' Cameron can refuse to be drawn on the big political decisions on tax, pensions, Europe or public services, and say `wait and see'. The Tories claim it is more important for Cameron to establish an `aroma' than come out with policy ideas which can be torn to pieces, as we did with his Patients' Passport in 2005. When Cameron does come out with a policy - for example, vouchers for starving people in Africa to swap for aid, tearing up the human rights act, or allowing milk floats to use bus lanes, he simply can't cut it. Today's big policy announcement is ripped to shreds, (often by his own side), and tomorrow it is quietly ditched.

Once you get past the photo-opportunities, the stunts, the celebrity endorsements, and the `aroma', you find that Cameron's appeal is gossamer thin. People are not stupid. They say to me: if he's prepared to change his mind on policy, then why should we trust him with our jobs and mortgages? A Bournemouth taxi driver the other day told me Cameron reminded him of an estate agent: full of smiles and chat, prepared to say anything to make the sale, but nowhere to be seen when the roof falls in.

And that's how we will fight back: Labour substance versus Conservative spin. Labour taking tough decisions versus Conservatives dodging the issues. Labour values versus Conservatives prepared to do and say anything to get power.

We may buy and sell our houses from estate agents - but would you put one in charge of the country?

Hazel Blears is MP for Salford and Chair of the Labour Party


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Re: Fighting Back (#1)

I think Labour should stress the "unionist" theme, that they are in favour of the UK staying together. The majority of Brits want to see the UK stay together, and don't forget, there are lots of Scots living and working in England. My impression is that there is some disquiet at the anti-Scottish, little Englander message coming out of the Tories.  

There's no getting away from the fact that Gordon Brown is Scottish, so use it to your advantage and portray Labour as the party that will hold the UK together, and the SNP and the Tories as the ones who would rip it apart.

Re: Fighting Back (#26)

SNP and the Tories as the ones who would rip it apart.

Slight problem, it's not the official Tory policy to break up the UK (remember Dave doesn't have any policies; basic rule of politics - be consistent in your attacks!)

Watching PMQs in mid-week it's clear that the New Lab command know they are vulnerable on the devolution debate. It's not just Brown; half the front-bench have constituencies in Scotland. The body language of Blair and the number of planted questions on the back benches suggested they were eager to close the issue down, and I don't blame them.

Blair is always challenging Cameron to a debate, except that on this issue he is on the wrong side of the argument. You don't need to be a magician to work out that the Tories are spot on when they complain about the current two-tier system of Scottish MP's voting on English matters and English MP's not have the same rights.

Blair may have no political backbone but he is a master strategist (which he why he 'made up' with Red Ken to avoid losing the London mayoral contest, despite detesting him). He is right to run away from the issue as it has the potential to   hit Lab hard.

Re: Fighting Back (#28)

Of course it's official Tory policy to break up the UK. Alan Duncan is one of your front benchers fo chrissakes. He went on television to say that Scots couldn't even be Prime minister - that they were second-class citizens. He wouldn'y have done that if not sanctioned by Cameron - it was planned. If you believe in the UK, you believe all UK citizens are equal, and all have the right to become PM. If you don't believe all UK citizens are equal, then you don't believe in the UK.

The unpleasant Tory attitude to Scots is exactly like the unpleasant SNP attitude to the English. You are both nasty extremists who feed on xenophobia and want the UK torn apart.

As for the whole "Scots are voting on English matters" - for the millionth time, Labour has a majority in England. I know Tories have a hard time with basic sums, in simple words this means we have more English MPs than you, and legislation that pertains to England goes through the house via their votes.

Re: Fighting Back (#30)

"Of course it's official Tory policy to break up the UK"

No, it's not. Don't misrepresent people.

"He went on television to say that Scots couldn't even be Prime minister - that they were second-class citizens"

This is exactly the opposite way round - it's the West Lothian Question that makes the English second-class citizens, since they have fewer rights than Scots. AD simply pointed out that this applied not only to ordinary MPs but to the post of PM as well. Why should we have a PM who decides policies for England when he couldn't decide those same policies for his Scottish constituents?

"The unpleasant Tory attitude to Scots is exactly like the unpleasant SNP attitude to the English."

If this were really true, then the Tories would support Scottish independence (which would after all bring them electoral advantage). They don't.

"Labour has a majority in England"

This year, provided that all Labour MPs support the govt, which they don't always. The future may be different. And BTW, haven't you heard of "principle"?

Re: Fighting Back (#32)

This is exactly the opposite way round - it's the West Lothian Question that makes the English second-class citizens, since they have fewer rights than Scots.

I don't know how you can work that one out. Duncan thinks a Scot shouldn't be allowed to be PM, with responsibility for all UK-wide policies. He wants them to limit themselves to merely Scottish-only issues. If that isn't a prescription for treating Scots as second-class, then nothing is.

And for the record, I'm open to the idea of breaking up the United Kingdom. Many polls over at least the last thirty years or so have shown that the majority of voters in England are centre-left. Introduction of a form of PR which actually reflects these dominant English political views would ensure that the myth of England being a conservative country would be exploded once and for all.

If Scotland (and Wales, for that) votes to go its own sweet way, I'm fine with that. It's the way the world in general (and Europe in particular) is going anyway - smaller autonomous states affiliated to regional bodies (eg EU, African Union, etc).

And on a purely partisan basis, Labour has more than enough quality, talented, respected English MPs coming through to public recognition (the Milibands, Denham, Balls, etc) and higher office to cope with the loss of Scotland and the current Scots contingent in the cabinet.

Re: Fighting Back (#36)

"Alan Duncan is one of your front benchers fo chrissakes...we have more English MPs than you"

You this, you that. FTR - I am not a member or supporter of the Conservative Party or any other party. I prefer to support my ideals, some of which coincide with Tory philosophy and some that do not.

Re: Fighting Back (#2)

How to fight back? First, stop using phrases like:

"Cameron's Tories", "Cameron's bandwagon", "Cameron's appeal", "Cameron's Conservatives", "Cameron's poll leads", etc...

What you're doing there is imbuing the Tory party with what I will call "eau de Dave". You're helping him to neutralise his party's excesses and worst aspects by giving them all the prefix of "Cameron's".

What you need to do is remind people that behind Cameron is the same old seething mass of Tory hatred, rather than saying that Cameron actually is the same old seething mass of Tory hatred. Trying to say that Cameron is a Tory underneath his polished exterior won't work - he was a blank slate in December and he's successfully written an appealing persona onto it. But he can't do the same for his party. They are still seen as the nasty party, but not if they are always associated with their leader. And how better to see that done than by Labour using phrases like "Cameron's Conservatives" all the time?

Portraying him as a wide-eyed cartoon chameleon won't work. As any cartoonist will tell you, giving animals big eyes makes them seem friendly. If you want them to seem like a malign influence, give them small beady eyes. And that's just an obvious mistake noticeable immediately. He seems to me not like a chameleon or an estate agent, as you note, but more like a rather naive sixth form schoolboy jumping up and down with excitement and trying to rally his worn-down, clapped-out, demoralised troops into a centre-ground battle they don't really believe in.

It's true that we have a fight on now, but rather than reacting to announcements and events in Cameron's diary as per the local election campaign, the fight needs to be fought pro-actively, on our territory, and built on the solid foundations of the last nine years. The worst thing now would be to allow the Tories' agenda to gain the initiative - we need to regain that and show we have renewed impetus and fire in our bellies for a fourth term.

Re: Fighting Back (#12)

The observation that Cameron is like a sixth form schoolboy is actually very sharp. He is like that.

Everytime he moves away from pure PR to launching a policy, he stuffs up - the Human Rights thing, the EPP thing, the Scottish thing.

Certainly not the sharpest tool in the box, and we could contrast that with Brown's reassuring competance.

Certainly no one wants the country run by a sixth form school boy during these times. Perhaps that's the tack Labour should take.

Re: Fighting Back (#13)

The Terry's Chocolate Orange thing

The glacier thing

Re: Fighting Back (#31)

"You're helping him to neutralise his party's excesses and worst aspects by giving them all the prefix of "Cameron's""

Unavoidable. Left-wing politics is based on hatred and malice, which inevitably turns into personal attack. There is no way for the Labour Party to engage on principle and policy; it would be like asking the Mafia to recover loan debts by going to court - it's just so much more simpler to send a couple of the boys round.

Re: Fighting Back (#33)

Left-wing politics is based on hatred and malice, which inevitably turns into personal attack.

So I assume, given your distaste for the politics of hatred and malice, that you won't resort to comments equating the Labour party to some shady violent criminal gang, then.

There is no way for the Labour Party to engage on principle and policy; it would be like asking the Mafia to recover loan debts by going to court

D'oh. Too late. :(

Re: Fighting Back (#34)

this from the party of blogging gutter snipes

Re: Fighting Back (#3)

It's true that if just over 300 people had voted LibDem rather than Tory then Cameron's Conservatives would have lost Bromley ... but I notice that Labour dropped from second place to fourth in the self-same election.  Where's your comment about that stunning performance?

It's this sort of 'they did badly so we did well' mentality that is driving people away from NuLabour in their hundreds ... is it impossible to have an honest debate about the Labour Party's performance and, who knows, even admit that mistakes were made???

Re: Fighting Back (#4)

"Going negative" on the Cameron/Tory Party will only get us so far. We seem to lack any positive message to give to the country like we had in 1997 and 2001. Bringing market mechanisms into public services may please the economical thinktanks but it won't stir up the passions of the Labour grassroots and those who voted Labour for the first time in 1997. Some social democratic idealism didn't do anyone any harm.

Re: Fighting Back (#5)

Labour substance .... hahahahahahaha

Re: Fighting Back (#7)

I think that there are some errors in Hazel Blear's assessment of 'project Cameron'. She claims that the Bromley by-election was a test of David Cameron's appeal, yet the campaign was run by the local party with little mention of Cameron. However, in the local elections, where Cameron dominated the campaigning, the Tories got 40% of the vote. Additionally, the polls are not just showing Tory leads, but also equality in the rating for economic competence for Labour and the Tories, and also preference for Cameron over both Blair and Brown. Finally, criticising the Tories for spinning??? - this from the party boasting Alistair Campbell??? Labour as the party of values? - they ditched them long ago to get elected.

Re: Fighting Back (#14)

Hmm, sounds like you are protesting too much.

There is usually a swing back towards the government of the day as the election approachs and some people prefer to stick with the known quantity. Therefore Tories need to be ahead by a good 10-15% in the polls to survive that. In the mid 90's, Labour was polling at 47-50%, which came back a bit towards the election.

You make a reference to the local elections - note that they were heavily weighted to London - outside the capital, only a third of wards in England were being contested. In my area, Labour actually gained a seat - and that was after that media frenzy week. If Cameron couldn't crack it then, he's not going to. You can't win a general election unless you win the big provincial English cities.

As for values - au contraire - Labour has gained a certain solidity from being in power for nine years. Everyone knows exactly what we stand for - which is more than can be said of any of the opposition.

Re: Fighting Back (#8)

Dizzy - How dare you say we have no substance? I've posted our achievements on my blog!

Re: Fighting Back (#10)

This is a tory spoof site. A couple of bits are funny but the rest is just a bit pointed.

Re: Fighting Back (#9)

You only have to look at the huge difference in quality and practicality in the speeches of Cameron and Milliband on the same topic at the LGA Conference last week to realise that DC is no lightweight and that he has more substance in his little finger than New Labur have throughout its whole corrupt organisation.  

I am delighted that Hazel Blears doesn't get it.

Re: Fighting Back (#11)

Sorry Hazel one commentator on here said you were giving the Tories eau de cameron methinks you are actually smelling rather like John Major yourself. I remember reading the Spectator back in the mid-90s and they had two lines of attack on Blair- the first that he was just a publicist didn't mean what he said was copying the Tories and you'd rather have the real thing, the second that he was a crafty conniving basterd concealing leftwing ideas behind a Tory face. What you are saying about Cameron seems to be the same strategy as Major adopted for Blair- have you got the demon eyes poster yet. I don't know what you should do but maybe livening up the Labour party with new blood- skipping a generation in the leadership- talking positively about plans and not not chucking negativity along like you were making adverts for GWB.

Re: Fighting Back (#15)

Ms. Blears, kudos to you for properly pointing out that voters are not looking forward to a Tory government. That being said, we've got a lot of work left ahead to point out to voters that a Cameron government will be a Tory government, regardless of his own chameleon-esque outlook. We also have to discredit the notion that our policies are not well-thought out (or we'll have to at least publicly start fixing those that don't seem to work), and at the same time effectively point out that Cameron's commissions are a load of piffle.

And what's with all these Tories coming to LabourHome to pick a fight? I guess not being able to voice their concerns with their Tory leadership drove 'em here, eh?

Re: Fighting Back (#16)

What would concern me is Hazel Blears seems to be somewhat out of touch with reality.  

Does she really think that Bromley was a damning of the Cameron approach and not a combination of the highly polished Lib Dem byelection machine and the fact the Conservative campaign was run locally and in fact didn't use Cameron enough.

I suppose it serves her agenda to say Cameron isn't working as he is attractive to voters however, Hazel is damaging her own credibility.

For instance the references to policy announcements being "ripped to shreds" is basically fiction.

In fact the article is littered with so many small errors of fact you have to draw the conclusion they are deliberate

My advice to Ms Blears is that at the very least don't moan about Conservatives spinning in an article where you are plainly doing so yourself.

Re: Fighting Back (#25)

My advice to Ms Blears is that at the very least don't moan about Conservatives spinning in an article where you are plainly doing so yourself.

Spot on. However I'm not convinced that Hazel is deliberately spinning. It's just that the higher up the Labour command you go the more delusional they appear to be.

As a huge football fan I have often convinced myself of my team's superiority in spite of any logic and often evidence to the contrary, Hazel is no different. Her judgement is clouded by her love and devotion to her party. Will end in tears, just like my football team.

Re: Fighting Back (#17)

I agree with much of what you're saying Hazel, but how do we extract ourselves from the mire of bad headlines? What can we do to achieve some headline, successful, exciting and popular deliveries?

Policy announcements aren't enough. How can we change people's lives for the better and do we have time remaining in this parliament to do so?

Re: Fighting Back (#18)

I think the area where Cameron falls down on most is   policy. The analysis that he is "travelling light" is completely correct. It's a sensible thing for him to do as it puts off division in his own party. But we need to do more to expose his strategy to the electorate

We also need to articulate a positive agenda to improve people's lives. I think that we should build on our fantastic economic record by promoting the politics of happiness which I think has resonance for socialists as it seeks to maximise human potential. But also appeals to the zeitgeist of ordinary voters that are seeking more than a monetary side to life.

Part of the problem however is getting a message over about policy that reaches out to the voters who aren't that interested in politics and watch very little if any political media. Jonathan Ross is about as far as some people get to politics.

Also I think that estate agents get far to much of the blame and it's generally the fault of the buyer or seller when things go wrong.

Re: Fighting Back (#19)

As a Tory, I'll probably be derided (or at least ignored) for saying this, but the best thing for the Labour party would be for Brown to call a snap election after becoming leader, and to lose narrowly to a Tory-Lib Dem coalition. This would give the party time to renew (something which Major proved can only properly happen in opposition), with the younger generation - Milliband etc. taking over, and give the party chance to develop new ideas. The Tory-Lib Dem coalition would inevitably collapse - British parties aren't used to coalitions at a national level. This would allow Labour a good shot at the next election.
However, me being a Tory, you should probably ignore that which I wrote above, and skip onto the next comment.

Re: Fighting Back (#20)

However, me being a Tory, you should probably ignore that which I wrote above, and skip onto the next comment.

Not at all, Sedge. Indeed, check out a post I made on my off-site blog a few weeks ago...

http://agitpropcentral.blogspot.com/2006/06/labour-and-next-general-election.html

Re: Fighting Back (#21)

I'm not sure the Lib Dems would have the political capital to go in coalition with the Tories. Tory-Lib Dem coalitions in local government are frequent but it would be hard to see it happening in the national level. Lib Dems picked up disillusioned Labourites and anti-war protest votes in 2005 and I don't think they would go along with helping a Tory government, something they consider to be 'worse than Blair.'

If we see a hung Parliament in the next election, I think we'd see a minority Labour or Conservative government, or a Lib Dem-supported Labour one. Or maybe an unholy Conservative-SNP alliance? It's not so far-fetched given the situation in Canada.

Re: Fighting Back (#22)

HB's: "Bromley was a real test of Cameron's appeal amongst Tory voters, and he failed it."

Ha-ha, what a joke. So Tory voters won't vote for Cameron? Who are they going to vote for Brown?! Is Hazel really suggesting that in a general election the Tory voters won't turn out to back Cameron? He may not be right-wing enough for them but he's certainly preferable to the lab/lib dems!

Polls - At the next general election the Conservatives will obviously have greater support and more votes than a Labour government who people are bored of. The only question is the size of the lead. Given the disparity of the electoral system were looking at either a hung parliament or a small Tory majority. However as the liberal media are in love with Cameron he will probably be the next PM, the non-political types who vote do not trust Brown.

Policies - Cameron doesn't really have any as he knows all policies are ammunition for the gov/opposition to attack with. Clearly he doesn't want a policy debate but does he really need one? At the last general election Blair (shielded by Brown) hid from the public and the whole affair was a short-term (shorted election period in history) spin exercise reduced to stupid sound bites, expect no difference next time round.

HB's: "Labour substance versus Conservative spin."

Hazel - Do you live in the real world? New Labour has been obsessed with managing the media and manipulating public debate with political propaganda both in opposition and government. That line is not credible.

Voters and the media like style; both Blair and Cameron have it, Brown does not.

Re: Fighting Back (#23)

So Tory voters won't vote for Cameron? Who are they going to vote for Brown?! Is Hazel really suggesting that in a general election the Tory voters won't turn out to back Cameron? He may not be right-wing enough for them but he's certainly preferable to the lab/lib dems!

That's a false dichotomy. A certain percentage of Tory voters will either vote for UKIP or abstain. As you well know.

A friend of mine (a Tory blogger, as it happens) is actually considering leaving the party because of Cameron. He's got his eyes set on joining UKIP or bowing out of politics until Cameron is gone.

Re: Fighting Back (#24)

There will always be a few exceptions to the rule. A handful of ideological dogmatic Tories may vote UKIP, but not enough to change the political weather. Equally, voters from the far-left may vote for 'respect' etc. But none of this changes the overall picture.

It's the swing voters that count and Cameron's policy-lite, nice guy, blarite big-tent approach is a winner with the media.

Most hardcore Tories will still vote for 'Dave' as they have a bigger incentive - the removal of the Lab government. Just as lefties voted for centrist Blair to get rid of the Tory old-guard.

Re: Fighting Back (#29)

Well, the biggest change in the overrall picture in 1997 was people who had voted Tory staying at home. That was considerably greater than the number who actually switched their vote to Labour.

I don't think there's much danger than Cameron's posturing will push people who voted Tory last time into the arms of either UKIP or their chairs.

What is far more likely is that Labour inclined voters who don't see Cameron as being significantly more right-wing than Blair/Brown, will follow the example of Tories who didn't see Blair as significantly more left-wing than Major, and stay at home.

That, to me, seems like the most likely cause of a Cameron victory or, more likely, a hung parliament.

Re: Fighting Back (#27)

Rather an estate agent than an ex ship's steward who goes in for tearing down perfectly good houses in the north to feed his ego and look friendly to the property developers.

Re: Fighting Back (#35)

I think Hazel is lovely and is out there often talking to members at a myriad of events. Admitedly it is the usual government BS, but at least she is arguing and discussing it.

She sticks her neck out arguing for Labour in the media, I don't see Brown & Co or the far left doing so!

Re: Fighting Back (#37)

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