Where would Tavares rank in 2008 draft?

John Tavares

Bob McKenzie

9/7/2007 4:59:35 PM

TSN's Pre-season Top 10 list for the 2008 NHL entry draft, of course, does not include one of the best known and most prolific junior players in the country.

John Tavares of the Oshawa Generals would like nothing more than to be eligible for this year's draft, but he was born five days too late, according to existing rules. So while Tavares' agent Bryan Deasley continues to lobby the NHL in what would appear to be a longshot effort to make Tavares eligible for 2008 instead of 2009, here's a question we put to the scouts after they ranked the 2008 prospects:

"If John Tavares were eligible for the 2008 draft and it was being held on Saturday, where would he rank on the lists they just submitted?"

The strong consensus is at No. 2, just behind Sarnia sniper Steven Stamkos. Tavares accumulated 91 voting points. Stamkos had 100; and Drew Doughty 88.

Three scouts did say they would take Tavares first overall.

"You can't look past 72 goals as a 16 year old," one scout said. "He's only going to get better. He's so focused. He is so determined to score goals and make goals happen that he won't be denied."

But five scouts pegged him at No. 2 and two others ranked him at No. 3. So seven of 10 scouts surveyed, as of today, would take Stamkos over Tavares.

It wouldn't be fair to say scouts are concerned that Tavares' skating, deemed to be average at this point, will prevent him from becoming a big-time NHL scorer, but compared directly to the dynamic skating of Stamkos, the scouts who slotted Tavares at No. 2 did say it has to be a factor.

"His skating is just okay," one scout said. "But he's still a special player. The thing is, Stamkos is dynamic. His upside is huge. He has a lot of Steve Yzerman and Bryan Trottier qualities."

In his first OHL season, as a 16-year-old, Stamkos finished with 42 goals and 92 points in 63 games. Those are great numbers but pale beside the prolific scoring ability of Tavares.

In Tavares first OHL season, as a 15-year-old, he had 45 goals and 77 points in 65 games. Last season, Tavares scored 72 goals and 134 points in 67 games, eclipsing Wayne Gretzky's OHL record for most goals by a 16-year-old.

Worth noting is that even though Stamkos is eligible for this year's draft and Tavares currently is not, they are both the same age, born in the same year, separated by about seven months. Stamkos was born on Feb. 7, 1990. Tavares on Sept. 20, 1990.

"When you talk about the difference between Stamkos and Tavares," one scout said, "you could be talking the difference between Jean Beliveau and Phil Esposito. It certainly looks like they both have what it takes to be great players."

That said, there were two scouts who said, at this moment in time, they would take Stamkos and Doughty ahead of Tavares if Tavares was successful in being included in this year's draft.

"I am sure he's going to get stronger and his skating will improve, but if the draft was on Saturday, I would at this point have to take Stamkos or Doughty ahead of  (Tavares) based on what I've seen of them all so far," the scout said. "Could that be different by June of 08? Sure, it could. Everything could be different for a lot of players by then."

And in that vein, for all the talk about how high Tavares would go in the 2008 draft if he were eligible, scouts cautioned Tavares may still be challenged for No. 1 in 2009 by 6-foot-5 Swedish defenceman Viktor Hedman, dubbed by some as the "Swedish Chris Pronger," a big, mobile blueliner who is also drawing favorable comparisons to 2006 No. 1 overall pick Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues. Some scouts also believe big defenceman Jared Cowan of the Spokane Chiefs, the first player taken in the WHL bantam draft, could also be a factor in 2009.

As for whether there is any chance of Tavares actually being declared eligible for this year's draft, it doesn't look as though it's likely or imminent. Tavares' agent Deasley has conferred with both the NHL and NHL Players' Association, but the league's position, at this point, is it doesn't see any strong impetus to change the rules or grant any exceptions.