Republican Senate

Katrina Sweet has decided to follow Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and abandon her Senate bid.  She will endorse Democrat front-runner former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.  This leaves only Jay Buckey to face off with Shaheen in the Democrat primary.  Buckey’s campaign is underfunded and will easily be overwhelmed by a united Democrat Party behind Shaheen.  The news is not earthshattering, as Shaheen would always enter the prohibitive favorite.  This just means she won’t have reasonably funded Democrat candidates running around the state for a year beating her up.

Though not surprising, this does dampen the news of two new polls released earlier this week that show Sununu much closer to Shaheen than previously thought.  It will be interesting to see how Shaheen runs over the next few months now that there is no credible opposition within her own Party.  Will she stockpile for the long haul, expecting a knock-down, drag-out fight over the course of the next thirteen months, or will she attempt to put Sununu away quickly, but in doing so risk running low on valuable campaign funds?  That will probably depend on her internals.  If they show that she can end it quickly, she will attempt to do so.  If not, this race could be more competitive than expected.

Former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns has decided to run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Chuck Hagel.  The decision comes as a ray of hope in what has otherwise been a steady stream of bad news.  Johanns was extremely popular as Governor before taking the job in the Bush administration as Secretary of Agriculture.  He had been discussed as a candidate against Sen. Ben Nelson in 2006.

Two notable Republicans, former Rep. Hal Daub and state Attorney General John Bruning, are also in the race.  At this point, both should clear the way for Johanns.  Johanns is a conservative and established a record as Governor that the Club for Growth appreciated.  He is less outspoken than AG Bruning but is no less conservative.  That makes him a good fit for his state.

The winner of the Republican primary will likely face off against former Sen. Bob Kerrey.  Kerrey retired from the Senate to serve as President of the New School in New York City.  Many conservatives have said that his affiliation with the liberal University will cost him with Nebraska voters, but the voters have yet to give any indication that they care.  This will be a marquee race in 2008 and will be a leading indicator of whether the Democrats have a tidal wave or simply a high tide next year.

New numbers from New Hampshire show Sen. John Sununu much closer to former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen than previous polls, which showed Shaheen with about a 20 point lead.

Some are taking this as good news, but I am less certain.  That is a dramatic shift in numbers for a race without an explination needs to be explained.  I don’t know whether these numbers are wrong and the others are right, but the huge shift needs to be accounted for, one way or the other.

Today, 42 Senators demonstrated that they take their oaths of office seriously.  The Senate defeated a cloture motion on legislation that would have given the District of Columbia a Congressman.  The legislation was facially unconstitutional, and its proponents are enemies of the Constitution.  Unfortunatley, seven Republicans voted with every Democrat save Max Baucus and Robert Byrd to violate the Constitution.  It is beyond appauling that so few members of the Senate, including seven Republicans, take their oaths of office so lightly.

Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, for whom the NRSC went to bat last year, has disaffiliated himself from the Republican Party.  The GOP needs to learn from this mistake and stop supporting candidates whose affiliation with the Party is tenuous at best.  Lincoln Chafee was a Republican only because his father was.  His principles, if he had any, came nowhere near those of the Republican Party’s or the conservative cause’s.

Chafee follows former Sen. Jim Jeffords, whose party switch earlier this decade flipped the Senate into Democrat hands.  The NRSC didn’t learn from Jeffords, and now the question is whether it will learn from Chafee.  It is always wrong for the Party establishment to trash a conservative, which it did to Steve Laffey, in favor of defending someone who could well switch parties after the election.  The NRSC is supposed to fight for a Republican Majority.  That doesn’t mean only that we win seats on Election Day.  It also means that we need to support candidates who will be loyal to the Party throughout their service.  Chafee deserves blame for taking Republican support and switching parties after the election.  The NRSC deserves more for supporting him in the first place.

Lesson learned?  Only time will tell.

Let me be the first to suggest that Charlie Weis return to Massachusetts and run for Senate against John Kerry.  I don’t know of which party Weis is a member, and frankly I don’t care.  Anything to get him out of his current position.  38-0 is not acceptable.

First there were rumors.  Then Stevens’ house was raided by the FBI.  Now, former Veco Chairman Bill Allen has said under oath that his company, who benefitted from several of Sen. Ted Stevens’ pork projects, provided labor and materials for improvements on the Senator’s home.  These statements provide the clearest evidence to date that the long-time Senator was involved in inappropriate behavior, if not illegalities.

We deserve more from our elected officials.  It is in no small part thanks to projects like those that Stevens delivered to Veco that the days of stay-at-home parents are gone.  In many families, one person works for the household while the other works for the government.  Now we find out that the reason at least one Senator supports this system is that it means he gets free improvements made on his house.  Regardless of party affiliation, this behavior is unacceptable from a United States Senator.

Ted Stevens’ corruption is problematic not simply as an ethical matter, but also as a political matter.  He could very easily have been the safest Senator this cycle.  Instead, his actions mean that he is in fact endangered.  Reformist Republican Governor Sarah  Palin has all but said that the Alaska Republican Party needs to rid itself of this type of public official.  She is right.  For good government and for our chances of holding on to the seat, we need to isolate Ted Stevens and let him know that he will have absolutely zero support in his reelection bid, except, of course, from Veco. 

According to Robert Novak, former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey decided that he would run for the open seat if Sen. Chuck Hagel retired.  If true, this is bad, but certainly not devastating, news.  Kerrey remains popular in Nebraska and is one of very few Democrats who has shown an ability to win statewide.  His New York connections will likely mean increased access to large donors, which are always important.

Our strongest candidate would be former Gov. and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns.  Johanns is rumored to be considering a bid.  If he runs, this will be one of the best races in the country.  If not, we’ll have to settle for Attorney General John Bruning.  Bruning sent out an e-mail to supporters touting numbers that he trails Johanns in the primary by less than 10 points.  That speaks well of his chances in the primary, but says nothing of how he would do against Kerrey.  John Bruning should do what is right for the Party and defer to Johanns if he enters.  That said, Johanns needs to make a decision fast so that we know where we stand and so that Bruning is not hampered in seeking contributions by the possibility of a stronger entry into the race.

 I do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.

“The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several states.  No Person shall be a Representative who shall not…when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.” — Article I, Section 2

Rep. Tom Davis’ unconstitutional bill to give the District of Columbia a Congressman is headed to the Senate and likely to come up for a vote next week.  Fortunately, there is some talk of a filibuster.  If the Democrats think the issue is as simple as they portray it, they should work for a Constitutional amendment.  We do not have a parliamentary system.  We have a Constitution, and there is a process for amending it.  Democrats should pursue that venue if they want to change it, not simply pass legislation that clearly violates it.  Republicans should fulfill the responsibility of their offices and filibuster this legislation.

Rumor has it that Sen. Orrin Hatch has his eyes on the vacant Attorney General slot.  Hatch would make short-term political sense.  He’s veteran Senator who has built up good will among his colleagues.  Typically when Senators are nominated to fill administration positions, their body will give them deference and confirm them.

Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman would pick the successor from a list of three people presented by the state GOP’s central committee, the same system as Wyoming used to replace Sen. Thomas earlier this year.  He would serve until a special election was held, which would likely be next November.  While the replacement would certainly be heavily favored, it is possible that Rep. Jim Matheson, a conservative Democrat, would consider this the best opportunity he will ever have to make the jump to the Senate.  If so, our nominee would be heavily favored, but it wouldn’t quite be a slam dunk.