Possums Pollytics

October 30, 2007

Newspoll MkII

Filed under: Polling, Voting behaviour — Possum Comitatus @ 12:22 pm
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An interesting little question popped up in Newspoll, and to fully chew it over properly, it needs to be put in the appropriate context:

ratesandvotes1.jpg ratevalpprim1.jpg

It looks like most people are pretty locked in on this question, with even numbers of ALP and Coalition supporters suggesting that they may cross sides in the event of a rate rise. The alternative is that maybe people don’t realise how they will act until they actually see the money coming out of their bank account.

History gives us a good suggestion here of how people actually react to rate rises as opposed to whatever they may say about how they would react.

The other thing of note on the Newspoll vote was the low minor party support. This gets us on to how the small minor party vote estimates are highly volatile because they are so small.

To highlight this, we’ll go through a two step process. First, if we subtract the TPP vote of Coalition from the TPP vote of the ALP for every Newspoll since 2006, we’ll get a TPP spread. Then if we do the same for the primary votes, we’ll get a primary vote spread. These two together show us how much of the difference in the TPP vote is explained by primary votes. If we then subtract the primary vote spread from the TPP vote spread, we end up with a figure that represents how much of the TPP spread is caused by the minor party vote.

That might sound a little complicated, but it’s pretty easy once you chart it.

minorpartyresidual1.jpg

If we blow that minor party residual effect up to highlight its movement we get:

minorpartyresidual22.jpg

What this chart tells us is how much of the TPP spread is explained by the minor party vote. This minor party vote is relatively volatile as a result of it being a small number in a larger pool. For instance, if there was a survey of 100 voters and 40 were voting for party A, 40 for party B and 10 for party C, if in the next survey it turned out that an extra person was voting for party B, the vote for party P would become 41, which is a 2.5% increase, but a 1 person increase in Party C (from 10 to 11) would be a 10% increase in the Vote of Party C.

With the sizes of the polling samples we use in Australia, this effect never fully washes out of the system. So small party votes estimates are, proportionally to their vote size, more affected by sampling noise than the major party votes.

As a result of that, and because TPP estimates are based on the distribution of those noisy vote levels, a fair bit of the TPP spread is quite noisy. Hence the TPP estimates bounce around more than they would be moving in reality.

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October 29, 2007

Newspoll Tuesday…. Again

Filed under: Polling, Voting behaviour — Possum Comitatus @ 11:05 pm
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How time flies, another Tuesday, another Newspoll.
The headline figures give primaries on 48/42 to the ALP, with the two party preferred coming in at 54/46 to the ALP.

First up; every Newspoll since October 2006 showing both Coalition and ALP primary vote estimates:

allnewspollsoct1.jpg

This again is just business as usual, but there is one thing that should keep even the most hysterical media pundits hyperbole in their pants about “The Narrowing”.

This Newspoll puts the minor party vote at its lowest level since 17-19 December 1999, at 10 points. Now the minor party vote has been declining, but 10% is probably a few points too low.

It has actually been the fluctuations in the minor party vote estimates that are behind most of the volatility in the TPP figures over the last 10 months.

Meanwhile, back at the much more stable monthly average figures we can now complete the October numbers and add them to the graphs.

alp-october1.jpgcoaloctober1.jpg

Everything looks pretty stable there. But the same can’t be said for the minor party and others vote as it continues to decline.

 

othersoctober1.jpg

 

Another poll, the same result. ALP primary of around 48, Coalition primary around 40 and a TPP around 56/57 to the ALP.

Update:

George has sent in the current primary votes with MoE bands:

gnewspolloctober.png

 

 

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Crosby Textor and the Census Data.

Filed under: Polling, Voting behaviour — Possum Comitatus @ 1:00 pm
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Oh the psephy joy of it all, the Second Release of the 2006 Census data is upon us bringing such sweet, sweet offerings.

After spending a quiet weekend chewing though it, today I thought we might have a squiz at how Coalition held seats in Qld play out in the demographic stakes, taking into account what we know about swinging demographics in Qld from the infamous Crosby Textor OzTrack 33 Research.For those interested in what the CT research had to say about Qld, simply click the thumbnail:

ctqld1.jpg

So let’s pull out of the census data the following:

-The 18-24 age group as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over

-The number of Part Time workers in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over

-An approximation of Lower White/Upper Blue collar workers (extracted from employment by industry) in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over.

That will give us an idea of how the swings might play out in Qld based on three of those CT identified demographics.

But we’ll also add a couple of other stats. Firstly, the percentage of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area 12 months before the 2006 Census (called SLA 1+), and proportion of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area in the 2001 census (called SLA 5+).

That way we’ll get an idea of which electorates are experiencing a changing population over both the short and medium term. Some of these results are really quite amazing and highlight just how rapid some places in Qld are changing - Fadden being the prime example.

We’ll also look at housing affordability via the percentage of median household income that would be taken up by making the median home loan repayment per electorate. This will give us a figure that we can work with to look at the possible impact of interest rate increases.

All of these are based on the current electoral distribution, and we’ll do the Coalition held seats in Qld. So first up just the raw figures:

Division Margin% Housing Affordability SLA 1+ SLA 5+ PT percent 18-24 Lower White/ Upper Blue
               
Blair 5.7 28.64 9.22 26.08 17.03 12.45 29.52
Bowman 8.9 30.9 13.6 39.08 19.73 11.75 33.89
Dawson 10 28.27 10.35 26.94 16.22 11.86 33.59
Dickson 8.9 28.93 12.23 35.8 21.06 11.29 36.09
Fadden 15.9 36.03 19.72 50.29 19.25 11.91 32.13
Fairfax 12.4 35.54 14.44 40.51 20.87 10.2 27.98
Fisher 11 35.74 14.1 39.19 19.36 10.18 27.79
Flynn 7.7 25.53 11.63 30.4 16.12 11.3 32.2
Forde 11.5 30.72 12.84 38.64 18.12 11.72 34.88
Groom 18.8 28.39 15.8 40.9 18.35 13.82 29.07
Herbert 6.2 27.68 19.5 45.14 17.52 16.87 32.61
Hinkler 8.3 37.25 10.5 32.65 15.86 8.95 22.47
Leichhardt 10.3 30.17 14.9 35.71 18.75 12.11 30.65
Longman 6.7 35.07 14.5 40.79 17.05 11.21 30.71
Maranoa 21 28.27 10.2 28.08 16.7 9.57 24.49
McPherson 13.9 37.26 16.5 43.11 19.95 11.55 29.7
Moncrief 19.5 37.55 17.1 41.64 18.26 13.63 27.24
Moreton 2.8 30.7 16.2 40.72 19.1 16.5 28.21
Petrie 7.4 31.1 13.6 36.2 18.37 11.33 30.69
Ryan 10.4 25.87 17.3 43.99 22.6 20.85 24.69
WideBay 12.2 35.24 11.4 33.79 18.37 8.22 23.95
Qld Average   31.46 14.66 37.76 18.06 12.7 29.7

And now we’ll rank them such that the highest proportion gets the number 1 position, the second highest the number 2 position and so on.

Division HA Rank SLA1+ rank PT rank 18-24 rank Lower White/Upper Blue rank
           
Blair 15 21 17 6 12
Bowman 10 12 5 10 3
Dawson 17 19 19 9 4
Dickson 14 15 2 15 1
Fadden 4 1 7 8 7
Fairfax 6 10 3 17 15
Fisher 5 11 6 18 16
Flynn 21 16 20 14 6
Forde 11 14 14 11 2
Groom 16 7 12 4 13
Herbert 19 2 15 2 5
Hinkler 3 18 21 20 21
Leichhardt 13 8 9 7 10
Longman 8 9 16 16 8
Maranoa 18 20 18 19 19
McPherson 2 5 4 12 11
Moncrief 1 4 13 5 17
Moreton 12 6 8 3 14
Petrie 9 13 10 13 9
Ryan 20 3 1 1 18
Wide Bay 7 17 11 21 20

We’ll also measure the difference between each of the raw figures and the Qld State average, to give us an idea of which seats are above or below the average State level for each category. So a positive “diff” figure shows how much it’s above the State average and a negative “diff” figure shows how much the figure is below the State average.

Then we’ll total the averages up for each seat to give us a really rough idea of which seats should be swinging the most - the seats with the largest total would have the higher level of dangerous demographics, the lowest total should have the lowest level of these danger demographics.

And we’ll only use the SLA 1+ figure for this since the SLA5+ overlaps the previous election.

  HA diff SLA 1+diff PT diff 18-24 diff Lower White/ Upper Blue diff total
             
Fadden 4.57 6.56 1.19 -0.79 2.43 13.96
McPherson 5.8 3.34 1.89 -1.15 0 9.88
Herbert -3.78 6.34 -0.54 4.17 2.91 9.1
Moncrief 6.09 3.94 0.2 0.93 -2.46 8.7
Ryan -5.59 4.14 4.54 8.15 -5.01 6.23
Moreton -0.76 3.04 1.04 3.8 -1.49 5.63
Bowman -0.56 0.44 1.67 -0.95 4.19 4.79
Dickson -2.53 -0.93 3 -1.41 6.39 4.52
Fairfax 4.08 1.28 2.81 -2.5 -1.72 3.95
Longman 3.61 1.34 -1.01 -1.49 1.01 3.46
Forde -0.74 -0.32 0.06 -0.98 5.18 3.2
Fisher 4.28 0.94 1.3 -2.52 -1.91 2.09
Leichhardt -1.29 1.74 0.69 -0.59 0.95 1.5
Groom -3.07 2.64 0.29 1.12 -0.63 0.35
Petrie -0.36 0.44 0.31 -1.37 0.99 0.01
Dawson -3.19 -2.81 -1.84 -0.84 3.89 -4.79
Wide Bay 3.78 -1.76 0.31 -4.48 -5.75 -7.9
Blair -2.82 -3.94 -1.03 -0.25 -0.18 -8.22
Flynn -5.93 -1.53 -1.94 -1.4 2.5 -8.3
Hinkler 5.79 -2.66 -2.2 -3.75 -7.23 -10.05
Maranoa -3.19 -2.96 -1.36 -3.13 -5.21 -15.85

The seat where the largest swing should be expected using this method turns out to be Fadden. If you look at the rankings you can see why – Fadden has a large number of new residents, pretty rotten housing affordability and is low-to-middle ranked in the other categories.

Maranoa is below, usually way below, the state average on all measures. Guess there won’t be much going on there come the election.

It’s also interesting to note that some of the seats where we know largish swings are happening, like McPherson, Herbert and Ryan for instance, can be explained to a fair extent through these demographics.

Over the coming weeks, I’ll do this type of breakdown for NSW, Vic and SA using the swinging demographics identified by CT.

So what’s everyone make of the data? Anything catch your eye about any particular seat?

Any further census data you’d like to see on a seat by seat basis?

 

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October 28, 2007

Yes, William has eaten his bandwidth

Filed under: Uncategorized — Possum Comitatus @ 9:43 pm

It’s true - the minions of BillBowe Baggins and his Pollbludger have eaten the bandwidth dry.

But do not despair fellow pollyjunkies, I’m sure our usual schedule will resume shortly :mrgreen:

[and now it has]

Howard casts his Shadow

Filed under: Uncategorized — Possum Comitatus @ 4:24 pm

howardshadow.jpg

One of the funnier things about elections is the briliant photos of opportunity that get thrown up.

This one came from Paul Miller of AAP, published at at the ABC.

UPDATE:

Peter Tucker from the Tassie Times, Online Opinion and all round pollyjunkie extraordinaire has a blog well worth visiting at:

http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/

Go on … have a squiz - I promise, he only has one head :mrgreen:

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