The 2007 Preseason Heismanpundit Heisman Watch

August 28, 2007

Here we go with the moment you have all been waiting for: The 2007 Preseason Heisman Watch.

Unlike a lot of Heisman watches, my preseason list is intended to determine which players have the best chance of actually winning the trophy at season's end. If a player does not have a shot at winning the Heisman, he is not on this list.

Therefore, the following list is NOT a prediction of the eventual order of the voting, but a gauge of the strengths of each of the top candidates. I will put out top 10 updates predicting the vote order from time to time, but this is not one of them.

I can say with extreme confidence that the Heisman winner will come from the following group of players. THESE ARE THE ONLY GUYS WHO CAN WIN! For the first time, my Watch includes two players who share the top spot heading into the season. After taking into account all the offseason action and the pros and cons of each player, I just can't find a way to separate the two at this point, as far as their Heisman chances go:

1. John David Booty, USC/Darren McFadden, Arkansas

These two are far-and-away the front runners for the Heisman. Being the front runner means that you have the most strengths heading into the race. Here's how I broke down McFadden and Booty by each Heismandment.

Heismandment No. 1--Tie
Heismandment No. 2--Tie
Heismandment No. 3--To be determined
Heismandment No. 4--Advantage McFadden
Heismandment No. 5--Advantage Booty
Heismandment No. 6--Advantage McFadden
Heismandment No. 7--Advantage Booty
Heismandment No. 8--To be determined
Heismandment No. 9--N/A
Heismandment No. 10--Tie

To sum up, neither has any position deficiencies, nor any class liabilities. McFadden has been getting the most preseason Heisman hype, but Booty's team is No. 1. Voters probably consider Booty more a product of USC's system, while McFadden is seen as an impact talent. However, a player from USC tends to have more institutional Heisman pull than a player from Arkansas. Both are likeable, though not necessarily household names.

So all things being equal, who would win the Heisman if both players had great seasons for undefeated teams? It would be McFadden in a landslide because he would be seen as lifting his team to new heights. But it is unlikely that Arkansas will go undefeated and that is where things get complicated.

I think that if McFadden surpasses his sophomore season when he rushed for 1,647 yards and 14 TDs, then he is likely to win the Heisman regardless of what anyone else does if, like last year, Arkansas can get to 10 wins by the time of the vote.

If Arkansas does not get to 10 wins, then McFadden will have to do more statistically. He will have to get much closer to 2,000 yards to overcome doubts about his team. Naturally, this will be difficult with a player like Felix Jones taking carries from him.

One advantage that McFadden has in his favor is his reputation as a multi-dimensional player. He will once again play some quarterback in the 'Wildcat' formation as well as return kicks. This gives him more chances to impress the Heisman voters. If there is one thing that captures the imagination of the Heisman electorate, it is having a multi-dimensional repertoire.

The biggest threats to McFadden's candidacy include the historical volatility of the Razorback squad, the continued improvement of Jones and the lack of a legit passing game out of Casey Dick, which could lead to the creation of eight-man defensive fronts designed to stop the talented junior.

McFadden's greatest strengths are that he has been the recipient of the most preseason hype and is now seen as the front runner by the working college football media, that Arkansas can lose as many as two or three games without affecting his candidacy and that he is the prime headliner for the Year of the Running Back in college football. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that he is projected as a top pick in the next NFL draft. We also know that he is not coming back next season, so voters will keep in mind that this is their last chance to pick him for the Heisman. In that sense, he is like a senior.

McFadden is weakest with Heismandment No. 5 and No. 7. Arkansas needs to tout McFadden as the heart and soul of an overachieving team to allay fears about No. 5 and should point out that no SEC back has won a Heisman since 1985 and doggone-it, it's about time one did, to counteract No. 7

As for Booty, he's got a bunch of advantages but possibly one fatal flaw.

Face it, without Booty, USC would not be the No. 1 team right now. So, the notion that he is only a candidate because of his status as Trojan quarterback is hogwash. He is a co-front runner because his presence has helped make USC the top dog.

In reality, he had a nice Heisman set-up year in 2006, with 3,347 yards, 29 TDs and just 9 interceptions. These numbers are very close to those of his Heisman forefathers at USC.

If Booty puts up similar numbers in 2007 and he leads USC to an undefeated season, he will have made a great case to win the Heisman.

But will he?

In the end, it may depend on what his co-front-runner does. If Booty goes well and USC goes undefeated while Arkansas and McFadden slip up and fail to get to 10 wins, then Booty is your likely Heisman winner, everything else being equal. In this scenario, it would take a uniquely superlative season on the part of one of the other candidates--such as Slaton or Brennan--to overcome Booty.

Booty's strengths in this race include his position as the quarterback for the No. 1 team--one that also happens to be a traditional Heisman power. He will be on TV a bunch and has some marquee games to state his case. Talent-wise, he is considered one of the more accurate passers around, with a strong arm. He is surrounded by a bunch of talent, but it is young enough in places like receiver and running back for the perception to take hold that he is the one keeping the Trojan offense together (this is a perception that helped Matt Leinart for much of 2004). He doesn't have to do anything particularly special this season to win--he just needs to play consistently at a high level and lead his team to victories. It is a misnomer that a 'Heisman moment' is needed to win, as Leinart, Chris Weinke and Jason White each had no such moment and yet won handily.

On a mystical note, this is the 50th anniversary of the last and only time someone named John David won the Heisman (John David Crow, 1957).

Booty's main weakness is that his Heisman hopes are inextricably linked to the fortunes of his team. USC has to go undefeated, or at least make the BCS title game with one loss, for him to have a chance at the Heisman. It is certainly possible that a single loss could cause his Heisman hopes to implode without hope of repair. This is not the case with McFadden, who could weather a loss much easier. There will also be the issue of USC-fatigue. Will voters pick the third Trojan quarterback in five years?

Booty's one Heismandment deficiency is in regards to No. 6. He is seen by many as a product of USC's system and he will naturally be compared to Carson Palmer and Leinart as the season goes on. USC needs to make the case that Booty is a talent in his own right and that his accomplishments were the key to his team's success. If USC fails to make this case, then Booty will be perceived as just another cog in Pete Carroll's recruiting machine.

In the end, these are two worthy candidates for the most prestigious award in sports. Whichever one can best capture the spirit of the 2007 season will take home the trophy.

The Front Runners

Now, the rest of the field:

3. Steve Slaton, West Virginia--He has built an outstanding Heisman resume, with 1,128 yards in year one and 1,744 yards in year two. He was fourth in the race last season. He is an exciting player on a possible national title contending team and if he surpasses what he did last year, he has the best shot of winning the Heisman if the two front runners slip up.

4. Colt Brennan, Hawaii--Brennan's problem is that to win he probably has to approximate his stats from last season, when he threw for 5,549 yards and 58 TDs. Everyone else's problem is that he just might do it, as this year's new rules will lead to an increase in plays for the Hawaii offense. If Brennan's numbers don't look like last year's, he has no shot, but if they do, then he could win if the top three guys don't get the job done.

5. Jamaal Charles, Texas--I know, many of you are probably asking what he is doing this high on this list. He has yet to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season, mainly due to having to share carries in crowded backfields his first two years. But an upper-class running back from Texas is always in this race if he has a good season. Charles is maybe the fastest back in the country and he will have a bunch of highlight runs. If he gets over 1,500 yards, then you will not question his Heisman credentials any longer.

6. Brian Brohm, Louisville--Maybe the top-rated pro prospect of all the quarterbacks and could lead his team to an undefeated season. He is hurt by not having a marquee game to state his case until Nov. 8 against West Virginia. He is an efficient passer and if he leads the nation in that stat and the Cardinals roll over everyone, then he could make a strong run.

7. Patrick White, West Virginia--There is not much credence to the notion that teammates harm other teammates in Heisman competition. There are plenty of cases of a player winning while a teammate also finishes high in the voting. At some point, either White or Slaton will be considered the top Mountaineer in the race and the focus will shift accordingly. If Slaton falters, or loses yards to freshman phenom Noel Devine, then White could easily fill that role of Heisman candidate. Being a dual-threat dynamo helps, as he will impress on the ground and in the air.

8. Chad Henne, Michigan--Henne is a senior quarterback on a highly-ranked traditional power. He has had a solid career and showed in the Rose Bowl that he is capable of putting up flashy numbers. Will the voters look to the Big Ten for another quarterback? Maybe not. But Henne is solid enough to be considered a legit candidate at this time.

9. DeSean Jackson, California--It's hard to win a Heisman playing for Cal, but Jackson could put together a Desmond Howard-like run if the Bears beat USC and win the Pac-10. He is the most exciting player in the country and the beneficiary of a recent ESPN Magazine cover. He's also the mouth that roared, which could garner attention--or detractors--depending on how he performs. A big early game against Tennessee helps him and then there is the tilt against USC in November. Beat the Trojans and he could be on his way to NYC.

10. Mike Hart, Michigan--Hart is the Bob Dole of the Heisman race. He's been around for so long, it almost feels like it's 'his turn' to win. He is a reliable grinder of a back who rarely fails to come through for the Wolverines when they need him. He's not the flashiest of players, though, and it would take a lot of craziness for him to emerge from this far back in the pack.

11. Sam Keller, Nebraska--My darkhorse in the race is Keller, who will have a chance to put up big numbers for a traditional power that has been dormant in the Heisman race for the better part of this decade. He's got a key matchup with USC early to set the stage and a showdown with Texas later to punctuate things. He may never gain a vote in this race...or he could end up at the podium in New York, the prime reason for Nebraska's resurgence.

Well, there are the 11 players who can win the 2007 Heisman. As the season goes on, I will eliminate and pare things down until only the players who can still win remain. At some point, I will call the race and then we will see if, once again, my call holds up.

In the words of UFC ref John McCarthy, let's get it on!

HP 2007 Heisman Watch
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  1. SQJTaipei says:
    August 29, 2007 @ 12:14 — Reply

    nice to see Keller on your list... Nebraska may or may not be \"back\" but if they ARE... Keller will have HUGE numbers.
    Great list... love the blog.

  2. Uncle Tom Joyner says:
    August 29, 2007 @ 13:03 — Reply

    HP, your heisman darkhorse should be ASU\'s Rudy Carpenter. I predict him having a pretty good season, after a disappointing (but not bad) season last year.

  3. Razorback says:
    August 29, 2007 @ 14:12 — Reply

    McFadden carries his team throughout the season by himself while playing multiple positions in the SEC.......McFadden should win easily! The man is an unreal talent

  4. Clearly Fake says:
    August 29, 2007 @ 19:53 — Reply

    A tie-breaker that you forgot, is that former Heisman winners have a vote, all other things being equal I, USC has more votes from that group than Arkansas.

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  6. Ed Newman says:
    August 30, 2007 @ 10:54 — Reply

    How come no Ray Rice? He will be the featured back on a team that should spend much of the season in the top 10. He has pretty good name recognition. He is a junior. He will likely put up big numbers and he will have head to head showdowns with 3 Heisman candidates late in the season. If he were to outshine Brohm, White, and Slaton and RU wins the Big East, I don\'t know why he shouldn\'t be at least a dark horse on this list. I certainly like his chances better than anyone below #7.

  7. Anonymous says:
    August 30, 2007 @ 15:47 — Reply

    Also, why is it not possible for Colt McCoy of Texas to be in the race?

  8. Ed Newman says:
    August 31, 2007 @ 07:57 — Reply

    Colt McCoy is a sophomere and so violates one of HP\'s Heismandments so he won\'t appear HP\'s list. No such rationale for Ray Rice.

  9. Tom Westfall says:
    August 31, 2007 @ 09:21 — Reply

    I still think that Steve Slaton at WVU is the man to beat and I have to say that what Louisville did was bush league and detracts from their reputation. They kicked a field goal with little time on the clock when they were ahead by what 60 points. That is poor sportsmanship and may be brought on by lust to have points on their record. Coaches in football all over the country deal with mismatches by simply running out the clock or even giving the ball over on downs. It could not have hurt Louisville. I say Brohm\'s statistics will be questionable this year becasue of this lousy sportsmanship. I don\'t want that in a Heisman Trophy winner. Its about college football, you know college football, not about the NFL draft or ESPN\'s highlights. Someone in sports broadcasting needs to stand up and say that sucked. To embarass an opposing team and coach like this is unforgivable.

  10." rel="external">bouey says:
    August 31, 2007 @ 10:05 — Reply

    Yeah, comeone ray rice and ian johnson of Boise????Also dark horseing Austin Scott of PSU if they run the big 10

  11. Paul Austin says:
    September 3, 2007 @ 03:19 — Reply

    If the Hogs can muster any kind of passing game, it\'ll be McFadden\'s to lose. 1647 yards, 14 TD\'s all rushing (Over 2000 all purpose yards and 5 additional TD\'s, 3 passing, 1 receiving, and 1 kick return) on a team with another 1100 yard rusher in Felix Jones. He\'s simply electric to watch.

  12. jmp1223 says:
    September 4, 2007 @ 01:13 — Reply

    I think McFadden should win regardless of Arkansas\' record. The Heisman is suppose to go to the most electrifying and best player in college football, not a player with the best team. McFadden has no quarterback to speak of, a young offensive line, and a backup that would be starting on any other team in the country. McFadden is playing against the best teams in the country in the SEC and is still able to dominate nearly every defense. He is an inspiration not only to his team, but to the entire state of Arkansas. McFadden is legend material, and not giving him the Heisman in \'07 would be a mistake.

  13. Ed Newman says:
    September 4, 2007 @ 07:52 — Reply

    Hey jmp1223, Mcfadden is unbelieveable and should win if he replicates last year, but let\'s wait until a few games are played before saying that not giving it to him would be a \"mistake\". We could have said the same things about Adrian Peterson before the season last year; was it a mistake that he didn\'t win the Heisman?

  14. Lost Razorback says:
    September 7, 2007 @ 18:02 — Reply

    Arkansas has a decent chance to win 10+ games this year. With 10+ wins, McFadden should have a respectable change at taking it to the bank. The SEC is a very tough and competitive conference. If all of the other conferences had a play off system like the SEC there would be some different out comes across the board. Same goes for the junk BCS. That should also be a playoff system. Enough ranting...
    McFadden gets fabulous numbers with Jones on the team getting steller numbers as well. If Arkansas had no Jones, McFadden would have passed 2000 yards rushing last year for sure. These two guys are always competing against each other and that is what makes a Razorback game fun to watch. WOOOO PIG SOOOOIE!!!

  15. son 427 says:
    September 8, 2007 @ 04:12 — Reply

    Macfaddin and Felix Jones are 2 of the best running backs in the country. Don\'t forget about Peyton Hillis. Without Marcus Monk and at least a try at a passing game, the Razorbacks will lose at least 3 games.

  16. OU Sooner says:
    September 9, 2007 @ 07:43 — Reply

    Will Sam Bradford at Oklahoma get any Heisman looks from around the nation if he continues to put up the numbers he has the past two weeks? I would think if his performance continues through the Texas game in October, their will be some displaced names on your list today. Go Sooners!

  17. Anonymous says:
    September 10, 2007 @ 11:24 — Reply

    this list is good it maks great points and the writer has good points but why is there Jamaal Charles and no Ray Rice. Come on dude. Also if you have Jamaal Charles why not have that one running back from there rival Texas A&M i think his name is Goodson i believe also put on the onther A&M running back Lane. Also update this and put sam bradford on this man he is great and so is that reciever Malcom Kelly. But also what I have seen is there is that QB from A&M you know McGee toughest QB in the NCAA. He doesn\'t back down and even if hurt he gets up and keeps going. I watched that texas v.s. A&M game and Mcgee never gave up. On that last drive didn\'t he like throw up in the huddle everytime and he still kept going, he had some injuries but kept going and that is something you never see. The heart and will he shows is amazing. He derseves the hiesman, well teabow should win but mcgee should be right behind teabowAnd then mccoy leaves the game on a stretcher for a pinched nerve come on.

    but we should not question McGee, we should wonder why all QB\'s don\'t do that.

    teabow should be on there. I say that cause i am a FLORIDA fan but i really think teabow should be on there best QB in the NCAA

    FLORIDA rules Go FLorida!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. tyreese says:
    September 10, 2007 @ 13:04 — Reply

    i agree

    stephen is tough and the heart and will power he shows should get him nominated alone. Not to mention great stats

    but i am a believer in Brennan, sorry. and i think that bradford is good and so is teabow but you know brennan\'s stats he almost has 1000 yards passing after only 2 games and in the first game he only played in the first half.

    and colt mccoy is a wuss
    pinched nerve? mccoy is pathetic.

    i had a pinched nerve before it aint bad
    it hurts for maybe a minute but it aint a bad hurt and defently not enough to be tooken off the feild in a stretcher.

    If that is the direction that QB\'s are going i am glad there is a true old school tough QB like McGee playing,

  19. au says:
    September 10, 2007 @ 13:11 — Reply

    i agree with ya\'ll

  20. Derrick says:
    September 15, 2007 @ 21:04 — Reply

    Well I know that everyone will simply say its a system he plays in but you can not count out Graham Harrell of Texas Tech.. He will be putting up monster numbers this year with an above 75% completion percentage. With the big 12 being what it is there is a chance for huge numbers. So I do believe him to be a darkhorse for the mere fact that you will not be able to completely over look his numbers. So you guys may say system is the only reason but he is outstanding and more accurate than any other tech quaterback. 3 games in 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns with two picks is crazy even for a red raider.

  21. UK Fan says:
    September 15, 2007 @ 22:25 — Reply

    Hey how can you leave out Andre Woodson from Kentucky!! He has now completed 257 straight passes without a interception which is a great feat and only needs 14 more to hold the all time NCAA record as for as I am concerned he is far better than anyone on this list because he is a team player no a one man show.

  22. HEISMANPUNDIT.COM" rel="external">JOHN says:
    September 18, 2007 @ 16:06 — Reply

    The best player and the early favorite to win the Heisman trophy is QB Matt Ryan from Boston College. The numbers he put up against Georgia Tech down in Atlanta and on national television was sick. This kid will be the first player picked in next years NFL draft, great size 6\'5, 225 lbs, and pocket smarts.

  23. donmon808 says:
    September 25, 2007 @ 22:02 — Reply

    god did u look at colts stats he didnt play a game and hes still keaping up and played half of the first game think about it he ONLY played 1 and a half games

    MAN u guys r idiots he puts up the best stats its not all his fault if he loses a game and guess wat were going to ter right through the NCAA this year
    thats right HAWAII is NUMBER 1
    we\'re going to climb up the charts SO fast u idiots cant keep up

  24. pat white says:
    September 26, 2007 @ 23:28 — Reply

  25. <a href="" title="" rel=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <" rel="external">#1arkansasfan says:
    October 7, 2007 @ 15:28 — Reply

    mcfadden should win it, hes already doin alright this year and should step it up in the next game, all he could do is get better.he has amazing abilities, such as running and passing, hes outstanding and should win, (john david booty sucks, usc just has good recievers), go arkansas, wooo pig sooouie

  26. Anonymous says:
    October 12, 2007 @ 17:29 — Reply

    “J.B. will be available to us,” Carroll said. “He can throw the football a little bit. We’d love for him to not have to play.” Many Trojans have felt this way since that swamp rat came to USC, it is about time they put him on the bench.

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  29." rel="external">Rudolf says:
    October 16, 2007 @ 20:09 — Reply

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  30. Dude says:
    October 18, 2007 @ 10:36 — Reply

    You have got to include Graham Harrell in this. Don\'t give me the \"system\" routine. Every college team out there has a \"system\". Except for most, it\'s called a \"program\". His numbers are out of this world. Every team Texas Tech plays know they are going to throw the ball, yet, as of date, who is stopping him. If your going to talk about Brenann from Hawaii--you have to include Harrell.

  31. Patriot says:
    October 19, 2007 @ 22:27 — Reply

    I echo \"dude\" ... time for all Heisman observers to take a seriouslook at Graham Harrell.
    What does he have to do to get a fair look? The #s are unreal.. the TD/INT ratio must be some kind of record and his comp % goes up weekly. He is putting up some of the biggest #s in the history of the game.

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