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Exit poll predicts Labor win

Posted November 24, 2007 17:38:00
Updated November 24, 2007 17:54:00

Poll predicts win: Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd voting today

Poll predicts win: Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd voting today (AAP Image: Alan Porritt)

A Sky News/Channel Seven exit poll is predicting a Labor win in today's federal election, showing a two-party preferred outcome of 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

The poll also shows Prime Minister John Howard is facing defeat in his seat of Bennelong, although these figures were drawn from a small sample.

In the classic litmus test seat of Eden-Monaro the result was even worse for the Coalition, with Labor ahead by 58 per cent to 42 per cent.

Eden-Monaro, based on the New South Wales south coast has been won by the party which has formed government in every election since 1972.

Liberal Party minister Gary Nairn is facing Labor candidate, former military lawyer Mike Kelly.

The poll is the first indicator of the outcome of the election, but political pundits say exit polling has a chequered history in Australia.

The exit poll shows that health, the economy, industrial relations, climate change and education were the most important issues for voters.

It also shows that five per cent of voters waited until polling day before deciding who to vote for.

The majority of voters - 69 per cent - made up their minds more than a month ago.

Seven per cent decided over the last three days, six per cent made their choice within the last week and 12 per cent said they decided within the last month.

Tags: government-and-politics, elections, federal-government, federal-election-2007, bega-2550, bondi-2026, gladesville-2111

Comments (22)

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  • ABC (Moderator):

    24 Nov 2007 6:44:48pm

    We have now closed this article for new comments. However, please visit the latest article from our rolling coverage (Smith predicts four-seat ALP majority) to comment further.

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  • mackie:

    24 Nov 2007 6:42:27pm

    I'm praying that we get the best government for us and I'm hoping like heck that it will be an ALP government

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  • Nick:

    24 Nov 2007 6:40:12pm

    Ah Mickey, the old scary union boss theory eh? Read Rudd's history and you'll see that he hasn't come up through the union ranks. Second, you can thank all those scary unions for many of the decent working conditions that we take for granted today and the fact that we don't send our kids down mineshafts to 'help the economy'. Next time you speak to a Young Liberal ask them what their passion for life is apart from 'the economy'?

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  • Don:

    24 Nov 2007 6:33:34pm

    I followed what Liberal said and voted Labor. You see the Liberal advertising told me that everything Labor said they would do was bad. Then the Liberals clarified that Peter Garrett said they would turn it all around when they got in. So that means that when they get in they will do all the good things the Liberals want to be done. So I followed my Liberal logic and voted Labor just like John was telling me to do all along!

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  • David R:

    24 Nov 2007 6:33:26pm

    Today's soon to be announced victory for labour is a victory for the working class of this nation. Unfortunately Rudd will be little better to us unless we go out into the streets to express our demands. The ability to vote once every three years is a ridiculous claim to democracy. If people believe that Rudd is going to be significantly different from Howard, they will be very disappointed.
    In an era of NeoLiberal global dominance it is ludicrous for us to think that the election of government purporting to represent the interests of workers is enough. Unfortunately the future of this nation, its citizens and the citizens of Afghanistan, Iraq, East Timor, and nations in the South Pacific, are going to experience a very real similarity between the Coalition and Labor government unless we all demand true democracy.
    Shame Labour.

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  • mickey:

    24 Nov 2007 6:26:12pm

    PM Kevin heads to Canberra! And bus loads of his union mates will follow! god save Australia

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      • Robbie:

        24 Nov 2007 6:33:10pm

        I'd rather have Australian unionists in Canberra than American torturers.

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  • jamie:

    24 Nov 2007 6:21:46pm

    if rudd wins then we have a dud in charge -if liberal then more of the same -i just hope we have enough true independents to hold the balance of power so we can at least have some public control

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  • Reg:

    24 Nov 2007 6:07:47pm

    If Costello had stood this election he'd have been no chance either, not even against big Kim. So don't worry about it...

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  • Alistair:

    24 Nov 2007 6:03:18pm

    Rudd and Howard are very smart- but who wants Johnny who doesn't care about the average Australian? I'm sick of the Coalition, I very much hope the opinion polls come good and we see the end of an era which has been very bad for the country.

    Well said by Reuben, the Senate will be interesting indeed.

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  • Daniel Smythe:

    24 Nov 2007 6:01:31pm

    Thanks John for what good times? Just let him close the door on the way out and move to America.

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  • kat:

    24 Nov 2007 5:58:03pm

    If only Kim Beazely had continued as Labour leader. ALP wouldn't have stood a chance. Rudd has more brains - just enough to fool the voters, but not enough to actually run a country.

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      • Michael:

        24 Nov 2007 6:17:54pm

        At least we may have the chance of a real Democracy if we vote out Howard, and not just the empty facade of Democracy. The policies which John Howard has implemented in the past few years do not represent the Australia that I know and speak to every day.

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      • Lex:

        24 Nov 2007 6:32:14pm

        It's unfortunate that people feel the need to resort to personal insults. If Kevin Rudd is elected, judge him on his performance as PM instead of making hideous remarks about his intelligence or lack thereof.

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  • peter:

    24 Nov 2007 5:56:15pm

    alleluia from california!

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  • Reuben van Bemmel:

    24 Nov 2007 5:55:15pm

    As both major parties like to reflect each-others evil policies (especially the ones that are centred around inducing more car-dependence through road-building), whoever wins the balance of power in the senate is of more importance in my view. The Greens have some very perspicacious and sensible policies, whereas Family First are ultra-conservative and are homophobic too! I look forward to Howard being toppled, but look forward any new Greens seats first.

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      • smaug:

        24 Nov 2007 6:02:39pm

        I think we'll be seeing a significant swing to the greens both in the senate and the lower house as well (although no seats in the house).

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      • Matthews_au:

        24 Nov 2007 6:18:26pm

        Will be interesting to see if the Greens are seduced as easily as the Democrats were during the introduction of the GST. Remember that the Democrats were once thought of as the most logical party to hold the balance of power in the senate and trusted accordingly. Better the Greens this time than the hideous Family First...ugh!

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  • Udo:

    24 Nov 2007 5:54:18pm

    That would be a sad end to a fine political career... thanx for the good times John

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      • Fidel:

        24 Nov 2007 6:00:27pm

        And thanks for the divisive policies and trying to take the country back to the '50s. Good riddance.

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      • Peter O'Brien:

        24 Nov 2007 6:05:57pm

        You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
        It's time!

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          • Gary:

            24 Nov 2007 6:25:21pm

            Everyone would love to live in a utopia France tried and is now paying the price. Labors ideas are great but not sustainable as we will undoubtedly have to find for ourselves yet again, the hard way. We never learn in the want for everything it just can't be done. We are in a better situation than almost anyone in the rest of the world yet still somehow think we can get more. Keep dreaming Australia.

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