Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Finally, it is starting to become clear how the bizarre calendar of primaries and caucuses could be shaping up for both parties.

Thirty years of tradition appears likely to hold for Democrats, with Iowa’s first-in-the nation caucuses on Jan. 3 as the proving ground.

But Florida’s primary, with its renegade date of Jan. 29, will serve as the GOP’s main set-up event before the Feb. 5 primary onslaught that is expected to be a decisive day for both parties — at least if Rudy Giuliani, the leader in party presidential preference polls, gets his way.

The former New York City mayor is hoping to overcome possible losses in tiny early-voting states and ratify his front-runner status in Florida, just in time to retake command of the Republican race before “Tsunami Tuesday” — as political junkies refer to Feb. 5, when 20 or more states around the country will confer the lion’s share of nominating delegates on their favored candidates.

Although GOP national leaders cut Florida’s roster of convention delegates by half as punishment for leapfrogging their approved calendar for primaries and caucuses, the betting is that the winning presidential nominee will reverse that ruling. If the Giuliani strategy works and Florida turns the nominating race in his favor, it could give him a leg up in the nation’s biggest swing state for the general election.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Here’s a question not even worth asking John Edwards right now because he would not really answer it: Do you dislike Hillary Rodham Clinton enough to ultimately abandon your own race and endorse Barack Obama if it comes to that ?

While the Democratic presidential contender and former North Carolina senator would surely dodge such a query about his rivals, he revealingly answered a more benign version at a hotel press conference in Iowa last week. After bashing Clinton for several minutes he was asked to also say how he differs with Obama.

“The differences between Sen. Clinton and myself are bigger than they are with Sen. Obama,” Edwards said, going on to speak warmly about the Illinois senator who stands in his way as the main alternative to the New York senator who leads the pack.

There is no such warmth when Edwards speaks of Clinton — so much so that it is not unthinkable that a loss in Iowa, where the 2004 vice presidential nominee has put the bulk of his effort, might prompt him to endorse Obama well before the Feb. 5 multi-state primaries when Clinton hopes to clinch the nomination.

Then we would finally find out just how much Edwards dislikes her.

DES MOINES, Iowa — If a single phrase can turn around the Democratic presidential nomination race in pivotal Iowa, it might be this line from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 9,000 party activists on Saturday night: “When I’m your nominee, my opponent won’t be able to say that I supported this war in Iraq.”

Obama’s direct and obvious reference to Democratic frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton’s vote to authorize war delivered a potent political message to his party that had less to do with Iraq policy and much more about targeting what even troubles some who support the New York senator – her electability and GOP plans for a ferocious campaign against her.

In a somber and sometimes ominous-sounding speech after five other hopefuls, including Clinton, had made their case to Iowa’s Democratic leaders and grass-roots organizers, Obama was smart to remind them that when they set the table for this nomination battle on Jan. 3 they should think about how the Republicans will run against Clinton if she wins the party’s nod. He loaded up the speech with hard-hitting attacks on her, while taking care not to say her name.

As I traveled across Iowa for the past week chatting with many Democrats and Republicans at campaign events, it was abundantly clear that on both sides the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses will be a referendum on Sen. Clinton. Democrats are mindful of her baggage and, even if drawn to her, they are still toying with other options — while Republicans, who almost universally assume that she will be the Democratic standard bearer, are quite focused on finding the candidate best able to beat her.

Clinton’s speech on Saturday to the party’s Jefferson Jackson dinner was strong enough to hold steady in a tightening Iowa race, but not enough to stop Obama’s momentum or quell the recent spate of negative news coverage that threatens to undermine her. If Obama wins the caucuses, his speech will be remembered as the night he began to make it happen.

The shortness of time before Iowans vote could be Clinton’s best friend because until recently her rivals have kept fairly quiet about their complaints, allowing her to build a loyal following in the state. The worst thing for Obama about his powerful speech on Saturday is that he might have waited too long to give it.

DES MOINES, Iowa – Democratic presidential hopefuls have few major events left to reach big numbers of voters in the crucial state of Iowa — raising the stakes when the candidates collide on Saturday for a lightning round of 10-minute speeches before an expected audience of 9,000 at the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner.

Much of the buzz, as usual, is about front-running candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton — especially whether the New York senator can do something in so little time to effectively counter her campaign’s longest stretch of bad news. Even though national polls show no impact from a faulty Oct. 30 debate performance and several missteps since, the Clinton camp is looking for a turnaround moment.

All of the candidates will be aiming to please this crowd of party activists, who can make a big difference in getting voters to go out in the cold to attend the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. But Clinton also needs a hit with the national news media.

Whether it is a result of the usual heightened scrutiny for a front-runner, or rather is pent-up dislike left over from the candidate’s White House years as first lady to President Bill Clinton, national news coverage and commentary about her suddenly turned quite harsh in the last two weeks. A boffo performance on Saturday might put an end to this episode of negativity — but given the historical friction between the Clintons and the media, there will be others.

AMES, Iowa – It is hard to tell whether or not Rudy Giuliani is ignoring Iowa. In one of his occasional campaign swings through the presidential kickoff state on Thursday, the Republican contender gave his standard stump speech with no specific references to a state that considers itself the kingmaker in White House politics.

The Giuliani camp insists that the GOP national frontrunner is competing in Iowa, citing an aggressive radio advertising campaign and frequent mailings to voters. But the trouble is that the way locals look at things, if a candidate does not personally obsess on them by spending lots of quality time in small groups then you might as well ignore them altogether.

Giuliani has gotten a reputation with Iowa political pros for ending up with the worst of both worlds – not doing enough to win and yet doing too much to write off a loss if it comes in the Jan. 3 caucuses. And a loss that counts could severely damage his image as the party’s frontrunner for the nomination.

Iowa voters seem to be echoing what the pros say. A new Zogby poll released Thursday showed Giuliani dropping to third place at just 11 percent support among the state’s likely Republican voters behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 31 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 15 percent.

BETTENDORF, Iowa – The policy offensive is on. Presidential candidates shower the campaign trail with detailed plans on every major issue, calibrating their proposals to appeal to the largest number of voters in their target demographics.

While dressed up as policy, these things are usually more about politics.

Iowa is now a dumping ground for this rush to seem bold and specific to targeted voters. On Thursday, Democratic contender Barack Obama unleashed a thick packet of proposals for middle-class tax cuts and credits, plus guaranteed sick days for workers and the reform of bankruptcy laws. Earlier this week, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton made Iowa her forum for a comprehensive renewable energy plan. Republican Mike Huckabee proposed more arts and music programs in public schools during an education town hall on Thursday.

And the list goes on. It has become a given in presidential campaigns that this helps voters learn about how the candidates will govern on the big issues of the day. But there are a couple of major problems with that assumption.

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa -- No one in the presidential race should be sorrier than Mike Huckabee to see two of his Republican presidential rivals -- former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain -- pick up key endorsements on Wednesday from religious conservatives, but he took care not to show any concern.

“I congratulate them both,” the Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor said of the news that  Giuliani had picked up the support of televangelist Pat Robertson while McCain won the backing of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who gained a small religious following before recently ending his own 2008 bid.

Huckabee has reason not to panic. Evangelical voters in Iowa are warming to the affable and skilled campaigner. And as he proved on Wednesday at a two-hour forum on education policy at the University of North Iowa, his years as a governor left him well-versed on the details of issues other than the hot social buttons that often drive expert evaluations of his candidacy.

Still, the evangelical vote could be the main reason Huckabee has a chance for a surprise showing in Iowa’s kickoff caucuses. And Wednesday’s endorsements seem not to bother him too much.

“If I had to choose between them and their supporters, I choose their supporters,” Huckabee said. “I’d rather have both, obviously, but I will get their supporters.”

IOWA CITY, Iowa – It is not often that presidential candidates devote a campaign advertisement to boasting about how they raised the money to help pay for the ad. But that is what maverick Republican Ron Paul is doing with a radio ad now airing in Iowa – and for good reason.

Paul’s Iowa ad touts the fact that the Texas congressman, who advocates immediately bringing the troops home from Iraq, has raised more money than any other White House contender from donors identified as affiliated with the military (according to a Houston Chronicle analysis). “If the troops support Ron Paul, shouldn’t you?” the ad concludes.

Paul’s fundraising took another giant leap this week when his campaign announced that 37,000 of his loyal fans had set a presidential campaign record for online fundraising on Monday by hauling in more than $4.2 million in 24 hours. That’s as much in one day that supposedly more serious candidates raise in a week, or even a month. It took three months for Arizona Sen. John McCain to raise $6 million for his GOP bid in the last quarter.

There is no question that Paul, who ran as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988, is fast becoming a major phenomenon in the 2008 race. Fueled by intensely devoted supporters who are skilled at new age campaign techniques made possible by the internet, the Paul parade is as close to a genuine grass-roots movement as there is in this election cycle.

Soon the voters in Republican caucuses and primaries will have a chance to validate the Paul phenomenon or send it packing. Iowa’s caucuses, the first-in-the-nation nomination balloting on Jan. 3, present a ripe opportunity for the cadres of well-organized Paulites, as they call themselves. An even better opportunity could come in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, not yet scheduled, where independent voters are allowed to vote on either party’s ballot and often make a difference in the outcome.

No matter what happens Paul has proven that a feisty market is out there for his brand of libertarian politics.

AMANA, Iowa - For a moment the raspy voice coming from inside the Festhalle Barn on this cold Tuesday afternoon sounded a lot like Bill Clinton’s trademark strained tones. But instead it was the hoarse sound of his wife and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton struggling with the harsh effects of spending a very cold day crisscrossing Iowa.

Taking questions from the crowd that had jammed into the unheated barn a few miles south of Cedar Rapids, the New York senator was ready for what has become an inevitable topic since her debate stumble last week. A sympathetic questioner brought up Clinton’s less-than-clear answers on whether to grant driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants, noting that a friend had recently been killed in an automobile accident by an unlicensed and uninsured driver who turned out to be an illegal immigrant. The woman suggested that such a story could be a rationale for issuing licenses, making it easier to hold illegal immigrants accountable .

“You should have been with me at the debate,” Clinton said. “I talked to three people in Des Moines who had similar stories, but thankfully none of them were fatal.”

Clinton is still playing defense from the drubbing she got after the Oct. 30 debate trying out various arguments to justify her support for New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s licensing plan. Perhaps that’s why she’s losing her voice.

DES MOINES, Iowa — For presidential campaign junkies, Iowa is nothing short of the best theme park ever. This is the Magic Kingdom of White House politics, the first state to vote come January, and nowadays the place to find a candidate in just about any part of the state on a moment’s notice.

Today alone in the Hawkeye state the dedicated visitor could get started with the Democrats by watching New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton talk about renewable energy (she’s for it), former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards talk about Clinton (he doesn’t like her) and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama also talk about Clinton (he really, really doesn’t like her). Iowa voters preferring to stay home today can join a conference call with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Or you could watch a super desperate Democratic hopeful, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, enroll his six-year-old daughter in a Des Moines kindergarten — an all-time low in pandering to the most pandered-to state in the country, other than New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is blanketing the state today in his bid for an upset victory against Iowa frontrunner Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Arizona Sen. John McCain is here, although his advisers might wish he weren’t — in today’s Iowa newspapers he is quoted refusing to endorse federal subsidies for ethanol, or, as they like to think of it here, putting Iowa corn in your cars.

Promoting ethanol is the big reason why Iowans so jealously maintain this theme park for presidential wannabes. If it works, maybe that will make it cheaper to drive to a real theme park.