Giuliani's Claims Are Specious

Here's what Powerline attorney Paul Mirengoff had to say about last night's debate between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani over the line-item veto:

Giuliani's argument that the Court's decision absolves him of any blame strikes me as specious. The Supreme Court's role as final arbiter of constitutional questions is a limited and pragmatic one. Its decisions resolve lawsuits and establish precedent, but they don't end all argument. Roe v. Wade certainly didn't end the constitutional argument about abortion, and conservatives would be justifiably reluctant to vote for the plaintiff in that case even though she won in the Supreme Court. More generally, I think it's fair for conservatives to hold accountable a candidate who successfully advances a position about the constitution that conservatives disagree with.

Many conservatives agree with Justice Scalia's dissent in the line-item case; others think the case was decided correctly. That issue is well beyond the scope of this post. My point is that Giuliani was wrong to the extent he argued that the Court's decision, in itself, absolves him of criticism for bringing the case.

Giuliani's second defense was that bringing the case served the interests of constituents. This argument may also be problematic. A mayor shouldn't press an erroneous view of the law, much less the Constitution, in order to benefit his city. However, Giuliani's position was at least colorable, and the issue needed to be resolved. But, again, by making his first argument, Giuliani showed too much deference to the Supreme Court. It probably worked on television, but I don't think it works analytically.

It Was Mitt Romney Night . . .

according to David Brody. Here's what the CBN Correspondent had to say about Governor Romney's debate performance:

Fred Thompson may have been the buzz candidate coming in and he held up well but Mitt Romney was as sharp as he’s ever been tonight. It was Mitt Romney's night . . . as for Romney, man he’s a good debater. I must say Mitt Romney is truly a human power point presentation…and I say that in a very positive way. It was on display in that first answer. Fred Thompson gave a somewhat generic answer to the first question about what he will do to “ensure economy vibrancy in this country”. But then Romney followed with statistics, solutions, and a forward looking agenda. I mean, my goodness, he hit it out of the park. Later, he talked about section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. He even threw in some humor about Fred Thompson’s appearance. He had it going. Very impressive indeed.

Who Won The Debate?

Vote here.

John McCain, Weak On Defense

Contrary to what he would have you believe, John McCain is not the right man to lead the War on Terror. This article by Mark R. Levin provides just a few examples of his positional shortcomings.

Kevin Madden On Rudy & Fundraising

Great observation by Kevin Madden, via the Corner:

I asked Team Romney for their spin on the USA Today report. Kevin Madden, king of the press shop, responded:

As a testament to our growth of support, compare how much money we have raised from donors versus Rudy. Even with his 100 percent name ID, we raised more money from contributors.

We also have 100k individual donors. How many does Rudy have? They haven't announced because I suspect our total of contributors is larger.

How does someone who is internationally known, with 100 percent name ID across the country only edge us out by $500k this quarter? With his lead in the national polls and his name awareness, Rudy should be banking $20 million each quarter. There is a structural deficiency to his frontrunner status.

He added: “The loans the governor has made has helped fund the campaign during a very rapid growth period. We are expanding our organization and message efforts beyond just NH and IA and into MI, SC and FL. We raising the resources necessary to compete. We will not lose for lack of competitive resources, that’s for sure.”

Paul Outraises Huckabee By $4 Million

via the Politico.

Thompson's Fundraising: It's Not So Great

At least this appears to be the case according to Fred Bush, via The Right Angle:

As for Fred Thompson, Bush said “If he can only come up with $8 million [the figure Thompson’s presidential campaign filed with the Federal Election Commission yesterday] after all that time he’s had to organize, I don’t see him as competitive.”

. . . Regarding Fred Thompson’s $8 million figure, Bush said: “It’s not so great. Such huge expectations have been raised that it should be a more enormous amount.”

Question: After months of "testing-the-waters," coupled with the pandering of MSM, how else could such a figure be considered?

More Commentary On National Polling Numbers . . .

. . . this time via NRO's David Freddoso:

J-Pod: I must defend the so-called "common wisdom" that "everyone is wrong" for paying attention to national polls. Here's a CNN/USA Today poll, nationwide, from October 2003:

Howard Dean 16 percent; Wesley Clark 15 percent; Dick Gephardt 12 percent; Joe Lieberman 12 percent; John Kerry 10 percent; Rev Al Sharpton 6 percent; John Edwards 6 percent; Carol Mosley Braun 4 percent; and Dennis Kucinich 1 percent.

Note that John Kerry was in fifth place. All it took was one big victory in Iowa, and he went (if I recall) from third or fourth to first in New Hampshire. After that, Edwards and Clark won primaries, but Kerry never had to look back.

If anything, I expect that this cycle's accelerated primary schedule will amplify this trend. All it takes is one big victory in Iowa, and several other dominoes will follow, because no one has the cash or energy to run campaigns in all of the big February 5 states. It will be a momentum game, as it always is.

If Freddoso's viewpoint is correct, then Mitt Romney clearly has an advantage going into the final stretch. After all, he won the Ames Straw Poll convincingly and has maintained a strong lead in Iowa state polls. In addition, with respect to money and energy, Mitt Romney clearly has the upper hand. He has been widely held as the "Energizer Bunny" of the GOP primary, with his host of "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall meetings; not to mention the fact that he has his five boys and wife campaigning along side him. Mitt Romney is also the only candidate who can write himself a significant check if necessary, a possibility he certainly hasn't ruled out.

Will Rudy Marginalize The Pro-Life Movement?

I am still not thoroughly converted to the following argument but the individual does raise an interesting question: Will the nomination of Rudy Giuliani marginalize the pro-life movement to the point of making it a "foregone conclusion" voting block? Via The Right Angle:

Another correspondent neatly summed up the problem with Rudy: “Once a pro-choice candidate is elected, the pro-choice forces within the Republican party will know that our votes are a given and that means we will have no real influence…The pro-life voters will be to Republicans what black voters have become to Democrats — a reliable constituency that must be humored but never taken seriously because their votes are guaranteed.”

That's true, but it isn't just the pro-choicer wing of the GOP we have to worry about. A great many GOP politicians really don't care one way or another about abortion, but they toe the line enough to keep the conservative Christian yahoos (that's us!) voting for them. A Rudy win moves that line dramatically. All they'll have to do is promise not to actively encourage abortion, and they'll be good. Pro-life, pro-choice, it won't matter. They can mutter sweet nothings about judges and be in the clear, with no need to wade into that messy and controversial abortion issue.

I whole heartily agree with the latter view in that the nomination of Giuliani will adequately demonstrate that there has been a major foundational shift within the Republican party. Such an occurrence will support the allegation that the social conservative movement is becoming watered down and more willing to compromise on pivotal social issues--a notion heretofore thought unimaginable. Fortunately, pro-life voters do not yet have to worry about backing a third-party candidate as there is a socially conservative, albeit more qualified candidate to lead the GOP: Governor Mitt Romney.

Rudy Continues To Take Christian Punches

The latest from The Brody File:

Talk about persona non grata! Rudy Giuliani got the cold shoulder from the Iowa Christian Alliance over the weekend. Read below from the Iowa Independent:

“Many presidential candidates were invited to a dinner hosted by the socially conservative Iowa Christian Alliance known for carrying significant influence in the Republican caucuses, Saturday evening in Des Moines, although only one obliged. Former Sen. Fred Thompson will be making his first appearance in front of the group. But Rudy Giuliani wasn't invited. Steve Scheffler, organizer of the event and kingmaker among Republicans in the state, said "I think a lot of our base would rather wander in the wilderness for eight to 12 years than to vote for [Giuliani]."

Giuliani's Theory Debunked?

While traveling around the country Rudy Giuliani has repeatedly touted the idea that he is the one GOP candidate that can unite the party and defeat the juggernaut "Clinton Machine" come November. Hizzoner's rhetoric may appeal to some moderates but the backbone of the GOP--the Christian Right--is calling foul. In a recent column from The New York Times, a coalition of key Evangelicals leaders are vehemently opposed to electing Rudy. So much in fact, that they are willing to endorse a third-party candidate in his stead.

Via The Times:

Alarmed at the chance that the Republican party might pick Rudolph Giuliani as its presidential nominee despite his support for abortion rights, a coalition of influential Christian conservatives is threatening to back a third-party candidate in an attempt to stop him.

The group making the threat, which came together Saturday in Salt Lake City during a break-away gathering during a meeting of the secretive Council for National Policy, includes Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who is perhaps the most influential of the group, as well as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, the direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie and dozens of other politically-oriented conservative Christians, participants said. Almost everyone present expressed support for a written resolution that “if the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third party candidate.”

Of course the above Evangelical leaders, although influential, do not represent the entire Christian Right. Yet without question they do have an impact on the voting block, and impact that is arguably strong enough to hinder the GOP from retaining the presidency in 2008. Republican voters are well aware of the third-party candidate consequences. After all, it was Ross Perot's intermingling that ensured the previous Clinton nominations. Will GOP voters run the same risk by backing Rudy? Will history repeat itself?

Romney Winning In South Carolina!

Check out this latest poll via the American Research Group.

Alright, I think we need to take this poll with the proverbial grain of salt--the gains just appear too great. However, even if the figures were partly true, this is tremendous news for Mitt Romney & Co. If Romney has the capacity to carry South Carolina (something I believe he can accomplish) there may be no stopping him.

The Line: A Tale of Two Nomination Fights

via the Washington Post:

The Republican nomination race, where fluidity is the name of the game, couldn't be more different. An argument can be made for either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, while Fred Thompson remains a major factor in the contest.

So fluid is the Republican contest that writing off any of the candidates -- including Mike Huckabee and John McCain -- may well be premature. Make no mistake: The Fix believes the GOP nominee will come from the current top tier of Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. But this race has been so unpredictable (who could have imagined McCain would have fallen from the first tier so rapidly) that we hesitate to make hard and fast predictions.

Here's what they had to say about Governor Romney who is currently ranked #2 (behind Giuliani):

Mitt Romney: Romney hasn't done anything wrong over the last month, but there seems to be a feeling at least among inside the Beltway types that his campaign has stalled a bit. A CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire voters that came out this week didn't help that case, as it showed Romney and Giuliani in a dead heat -- a stark contrast from a July poll that had Romney with a double-digit margin over the former Mayor. The Romney campaign quickly responded with a memo arguing that the internals of the survey were actually good news for their candidate, but the fact they had to send out a memo shows there is a level of concern on their part. Still, Romney has several major advantages in this race. As best we can tell, the top tier of candidates is largely ceding an Iowa victory to him, a win that if it happens could well give Romney a significant boost in New Hampshire. If he wins those two early states, it may be tough for Giuliani or anyone else to stop his momentum. And don't forget that Romney is extremely wealthy and has already shown a willingness to dig deep into his own pockets for the campaign. (Previous ranking: Tied for 1st)

Overall, this is a great review for Mitt. I am still not reading a lot into the national and statewide polls, however there is one thing for sure: Mitt Romney is in a dead heat for the GOP nomination. In fact, to date the best measuring tools we have to judge the candidates and their organizations are the fundraising figures, straw poll victories, and debate performances. Judging by these three factors, Mitt is going to be tough to beat.

Evangelicals Turn On Thompson

Fred Thompson is failing to meet expectations that he would rally widespread support from Christian conservatives, and he almost certainly will not receive a joint endorsement from the loose coalition of "pro-family" organizations, according to leaders of the movement.

Many religious conservatives, faced with a Republican primary top tier that lacked a true kindred spirit, initially looked to Thompson as a savior. But the former Tennessee senator has disappointed or just not sufficiently impressed the faith community since his formal campaign launch earlier this month.

For more read here.

A Bizarre Night At Chili's

I had the most bizarre conversation last night while dining out. Although I must admit, anytime I wear my Mitt Romney for President t-shirt I’m asking for it (remember I live in Maryland). While enjoying my appetizer, the restaurant manager passed by and said,

MANAGER: “Ugh, Mitt Romney?”
AARON: [Smiling] Yeah, I’m supporting Mitt. How about yourself?
MANAGER: Uh, we probably shouldn’t talk about it here.
AARON: No, by all means I’m interested in what you have to say.
MANAGER: Well, I’m basically in support of anyone except Mitt Romney.
AARON: Really? Why is that?
MANAGER: He’s a Mormon.
AARON: Do you have a problem with Mormons?
MANAGER: Yes, they are religious fanatics and the last thing this country needs is another religious fanatic like George Bush.
AARON: That’s funny. Mitt Romney doesn’t strike me as being fanatical. Could you give me an example of his religious fanaticism while he served as CEO of Bain Capital, the Salt Lake City Olympics, or during his four years as Governor of Massachusetts?
MANAGER: [Obviously unable to answer my question] Well, like I said he's Mormon and they are religious fanatics.
AARON: Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm assuming you're a Democrat?
MANAGER: Yes, I am.
AARON: Well then you know who the Senate Majority Leader is, right?
MANAGER: What do mean?
AARON: Well, it’s Harry Reid, a democrat, and a Mormon.
MANAGER: I’ll get back to you in a second, [He leaves the room and enters the kitchen area.]

Unfortunately, that was not the end of our conversation as the manager eventually returned and began where he left off.

MANAGER: Mitt Romney has no chance at winning the nomination.
AARON: It's still early we’ll have to wait and see what happens. Who are you supporting again?
MANAGER: John Edwards.
AARON: Really? Do you think he has a chance at beating Hillary?
MANAGER: Definitely. Hillary has too many enemies on both sides.
AARON: I agree that Hillary has a polarizing effect on people, but I think that will come into play more during the general election. Right now she has a commanding lead in virtually every democratic poll.
MANAGER: Trust me, Edwards is going to win.
AARON: You know that’s interesting you think Edwards is going to win; meanwhile you think Romney has no chance. I just bring it up because they're both pursuing the same strategy.
MANAGER: How so?
AARON: They are both focusing on the early primary states, hoping to win early, and ride the momentum to their party’s nomination. Also, I think it’s important to point out that Romney is doing far better in the early states when compared to Edwards. Plus, Mitt doesn't have nearly the amount of national name recognition as Edwards. All in all, I think Mitt Romney is running a good campaign and has legitimate shot at the presidency.
MANAGER: [once again side stepping the issue] The problem with the republicans is the Iraq War. Like George W. Bush, they refuse to admit they’re wrong. We need to end this war. There is only one Republican who wants to end the war and he’s wrong on every other issue.
AARON: Who? Ron Paul?
MANAGER: Yeah.
AARON: Perhaps. Although Ron Paul aside, Mitt Romney has been distancing himself from Bush as of late. Also, if you pay close attention to his rhetoric he’s been very cautionary and pragmatic when it comes to Iraq. I think out of all the GOP candidates, excluding Ron Paul, he is the most likely to bring our troops home, that is, when the timing is right. He is very different, than say, “never surrender” John McCain.
MANAGER: Yeah, John McCain is an idiot.

The conversation then went into a different direction but before I finished my meal we had one more bizarre exchange.

MANAGER: You know, the only reason Bush beat Kerry in 2004 is because Kerry is not charismatic like Bush and couldn’t connect with the people.
Aaron: Are you serious? You think Bush is more charismatic than John Kerry.
MANAGER: Of course he is. That’s the only reason people voted for him.
AARON: Hmm.
MANAGER: Anyway, it doesn’t matter. The American people are so ignorant and have no idea what’s going on in this country. The people have no idea who they're voting for.
AARON: [Unable to control myself] Based on our conversation tonight, I would have to agree.
MANAGER: I’m going to do some more research on Mitt Romney just so I can hate him more.
AARON: You do that. Have a good night.

Seriously, President Bush has been called a lot of things, but one word that he has never been associated with is charisma. To borrow a word from the Romney vernacular, the manager was “loony.”

All kidding aside, the exchange was significant for two different reasons. First, the restaurant manager strengthened the argument that religious bigotry and intolerance are far more common among the liberal left than they are the Christian Right (a premise Hugh Hewitt strongly holds to in his book, “A Mormon in the White House?") And secondly, the above rhetoric reaffirms what Evangelicals for Mitt has been saying all along—Christians are in this fight together. Regardless, of theological differences, Evangelicals and Mormons are viewed as one and the same by the liberal elitists of this country, and consequently need to set aside their doctrinal distinctions and focus on their political similarities. Lastly, the incident confirms that if you want a peaceful meal don’t wear a Romney t-shirt to a Maryland restaurant, as least in the city of Bel Air anyway.

Romney Hits It Out of the Park!

according to David Brody. Read here.

Romney Gaining Ground in Michigan?

I read a lot of negative reviews of Romney's Michigan speech this weekend. Yet when it was all said and done, Mitt Romney appears to have come out on top once again. Via The Corner, the results were as follows:

Mitt Romney: 36
John McCain: 24
Rudy Giuliani: 16
Ron Paul: 9
Fred Thompson: 7

NRO's David Freddoso points out that Mitt Romney paid for a lot of supporters to attend, hence that may have led to the decisive victory. Yet isn't that what campaigns are supposed to do? Romney will always have his share of critics but the fact of the matter remains: he won the CPAC and Ames straw polls, he is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, and has the strongest ground organization in Michigan. I can see the headline now: Mitt Romney Wins The Presidency . . . but people only voted for him because his money helped bring them to the voting booths. In the end a victory is a victory.

UPDATE: It appears I jumped the gun yesterday. Here are the actual results:

S. Brownback 3 .31%
Rudy Giuliani 104 10.62%
M. Huckabee 25 2.55%
D. Hunter 12 1.23%
J. McCain 260 26.56%
R. Paul 106 10.83%
M. Romney 383 39.12%
T. Tancredo 0
F. Thompson 70 7.15%
Uncomm 16 1.63%

It's nice being wrong, especially when Mitt's margin of victory increases and Rudy Giuliani finishes behind Ron Paul. Speaking of Giuliani, despite his impressive national polling numbers he has yet to win a significant GOP straw poll--begging the question is he really the front-runner?

"Change Begins With Us"

This ranks up there as one of my favorite "Romney Ads" to date. Frankly, I am tired of Republican hyprocrisy. We must stop pork-barrel spending, ignoring illegal immigration, and the rise of immorality within the walls of our own party.

Romney NRO Interview

Here's a good article and interview by NROs Stephen Spruiell in which Governor Romney discusses Iraq, Iran, health care, and his strategy for winning the early primary states.

In particular, I like his stance on health care. When asked how he felt about the criticism that Hillary's health care proposal is similar to his Massachusetts plan, Mitt responded,

My view in Massachusetts was, here’s a good plan for our state . . . It’s not necessarily a good plan for everybody else’s state. So my view is, the federal government should give each state the financing flexibility they gave us to allow each state to craft their own plan. Now, if they want to copy parts of what Massachusetts did, fine . . . If they want to create an entirely new plan of their own, that’s fine too. But let the states develop their own plans that match the needs of their own populations — not a one-size-fits-all HillaryCare solution.

Craig and Mary Romney in Washington D.C.

This Wednesday, September 19th, Craig and Mary Romney will be at George Washington University. If you are from the Baltimore/Washington Area this will be an excellent opportunity to meet up with other Mitt supporters in preparation for the upcoming primaries. (Hat-tip Mitt Report)